So what's Obama's route to the White House in a general election? How can he make the electoral map work for him? How dramatically does he have to remake that map to gain the Oval Office?

Here's a first stab at trying to answer that question.

To start off, Obama is trailing McCain by double-digits in Florida. If he were to win Ohio and Pennsylvania -- a best-case scenario at this point for the three largest swing states -- it would be very tough indeed for him to lose. Here's the polling in those states:

Florida (27 votes)
McCain (R) 45%, Obama (D) 41% (Quinnipiac, May 22)
McCain (R) 50%, Obama (D) 40% (Rasmussen, May 21)

Ohio (20 votes)
Obama (D) 48%, McCain (R) 39% (SurveyUSA, May 23)
McCain (R) 44%, Obama (D) 40% (Quinnipiac, May 22)

Pennsylvania (21 votes)
Obama (D) 46%, McCain (R) 40% (Quinnipiac, May 22)
Obama (D) 48%, McCain (R) 40% (SurveyUSA, May 20)

These numbers suggest -- for now, anyway -- that Florida is a long shot, while Ohio is shaping up as a big battle. So for the sake of argument, the question that needs to be answered is this: How does Obama get to the magic number of 270 electoral college votes if, like Kerry and Gore, he wins only Pennsylvania, but not Ohio and Florida?

Without Ohio Or Florida, Obama's Best Hopes Hinge On Flipping Either Virginia Or Colorado

There are effectively two main pathways to the White House if Ohio is taken off the table, with a few small variations from there. One revolves around him flipping Virginia. The other revolves around him flipping Colorado. Both are historically Republican states that have been trending Democratic in a big way over the last few years.

Virginia Dems have made big gains over the last eight years, picking up the governorship, one house of the state legislature, the much-celebrated victory in 2006 by Sen. Jim Webb, and former Gov. Mark Warner is a strong favorite to win the state's other Senate seat this Fall. Polls so far have been a mixed bag, but it does show potential for Obama to flip the state from Kerry's 46% showing last time around:

Virginia (13 votes)
Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 42% (SurveyUSA, May 22)
McCain (R) 47%, Obama (D) 44% (Rasmussen, May 12)

The Four Virginia Scenarios

Presuming Obama can get the states Kerry won in 2004, plus Virginia, with its 13 electoral college votes, he can get to the White House if he pulls off at least one of the following goals:

1) Take Iowa's seven votes.

Iowa seems like a very reasonable target -- it's a swing state that voted for Gore in 2000 but narrowly switched to Bush in 2004. And the latest polls all give Obama the lead:

Iowa (7 votes)
Obama (D) 47%, McCain (R) 38% (SurveyUSA, May 27)
Obama (D) 44%, McCain (R) 42% (Rasmussen, May 15)

2) Win New Mexico's five votes.

This is the other state that went from Gore in 2000 to Bush in 2004, and by razor-thin margins each time. McCain's moderation on immigration might be able to help him make inroads among hispanic voters. But the state overall has a Democratic lean; the west continues to trend Democratic, and Obama has argued he is positioned to do well there. The polls have shown a close race:

New Mexico (5 votes)
Obama (D) 44%, McCain (R) 44% (SurveyUSA, May 19)
Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 41% (Rasmussen, May 17)

3) Win Nevada's five votes.

This one could be a bit trickier, as the two parties are at parity here. The state voted for Bill Clinton twice, then for George W. Bush twice, and current polls give McCain the lead:

Nevada (5 votes)
McCain (R) 46%, Obama (D) 40% (Rasmussen, May 21)
McCain (R) 48%, Obama (D) 43% (Rasmussen, April 23)

4) Pick up Missouri's 11 votes.

This state also poses problems, but isn't out of reach entirely. While the state has trended Republican over the last few decades, Democrats made progress when they won the 2006 Senate race, and polls currently give the presumptive Dem nominee for governor big leads over all the Republicans. Current polls put John McCain up, but not by much:

Missouri (11 votes)
McCain (R) 48%, Obama (D) 45% (SurveyUSA, May 21)
McCain (R) 47%, Obama (D) 41% (Rasmussen, May 8)

So, to recap: If Obama can win Virginia and any one of the above five states, he's the next president, even if he loses Florida and Ohio.

The Colorado Scenarios

Now, on to the Colorado scenarios.

Obama has vowed that he can run better than traditional Dems in a number of Western states like Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. Nonetheless, if Obama can't flip Virginia, it's Colorado that -- of the Western states -- will be pivotal to his hopes, because of its treasure trove of nine electoral votes, more than any other nearby state.

Thanks to the radicalization of the GOP on immigration and other social issues, Colorado Dems have enjoyed a huge upswing. Whereas they had next to nothing after the 2002 elections, Dems there now control both state houses, a majority of the House delegation, the governorship and one Senate seat, and have favorable odds on gaining the other Senate seat this year. The polls:

Colorado (9 votes)
Obama (D) 48%, McCain (R) 42% (Rasmussen, May 21)
Obama (D) 46%, McCain (R) 43% (Rasmussen, April 21)

But Colorado alone doesn't get Obama there. What else will Obama need?

If Obama wins Colorado and all the Kerry states, here are four scenarios that get him up to 270, if only one is accomplished:

1) Pick up Iowa and New Mexico.

2) Pick up Iowa and Nevada.

3) Gain both New Mexico and Nevada.

4) Win Missouri.

Obviously, if Obama can win both Virginia and Colorado, the above scenarios are no longer necessary.

Time For A Caveat

A big caveat on all of the above: It all assumes Obama would be able to hold on to the Kerry states and gain some other spots, too. But it's not certain that Obama would hold on to all the Kerry states. And that's not owing to any particular flaw on his part -- it's simply that many of those places were won only narrowly in 2004, and the polls currently show tight races for some of those same states, with constant fluctuations.

Failure to win any one Kerry state would radically alter the math Obama would need to pull it off. While victory would still be possible, it would certainly become a whole lot more difficult.

Ultimately, if Obama wins all the Kerry states, and loses both Colorado and Virginia, it's conceivable that he could put together a map that makes it work. But he would really have to run the table.

The Bottom Line

There are multiple scenarios by which Obama can win without winning Ohio and Florida. Far and away the most doable ones revolve around him either flipping Virginia or Colorado.

And in the end, despite the campaign's talk about remaking the map, it could come down to many of the same states that were closely watched in 2000 and 2004: Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, Missouri, New Hampshire and a few others. The "remaking" would be in winning it this time.