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Obama Gets New Supers, With A Switcher From Hillary
After a relative lull in super-del movement yesterday, Obama has picked up some new momentum this morning with two new endorsements -- including a defection from Hillary Clinton's column.
The two new supporters are Congressmen Jim Costa and Dennis Cardoza, both of California. Cardoza used to be a Hillary backer.
According to the Obama camp's numbers, he only needs 59 more delegates to clinch the nomination, not counting Michigan and Florida.
The score thus far today: Obama +2, Clinton -1. According to DemConWatch, Obama has 1,964 delegates to Clinton's 1,780.
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The switchers are the ones that I bet really piss Clinton off. I can already hear the cries of "Judas!".
May 23, 2008 10:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here's Cardoza's statement:
May 23, 2008 10:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
She will hang him by a noose at the convention.
May 23, 2008 10:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
More BS.
She won Cali.
May 23, 2008 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
More Democrats prefer Obama now in California. They have buyers' remorse about Clinton.
May 23, 2008 11:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, but see there "Super" Delegates. That means they use their own judgment. In Cardoza's judgment (and Costa), Obama is the better candidate. Cardoza goes further and states that, despite his former support of Clinton, he is very concerned about the current contention that is being raised around the MI/FL issue and feels it is important at this point to publicly support Obama.
See, the writing's on the wall there. Democrats don't like seeing Hillary split the Party. See, because that's not good for the Party. They're telling her that it's time for her to step down and allow the process to move on, so that Obama can take on McCain without further interference or distraction from her.
May 23, 2008 11:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good for Cardoza to speak directly in regards to a position on the MI/FL issue. Any other SuperDels out there who are ready to come out of hiding?
May 23, 2008 10:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know, but Jay Nixon is an undeclared SD from Missouri (running for Governor in Nov.), and today I am canceling my meeting next week with one of his volunteer coordinators. Nixon gets not a minute of my time or a dime of my money until he grows a pair, gets off the fence and puts an end to Hillary's hysterical crusade over MI and FL.
May 23, 2008 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Further evidence that Obama has got it won and doesn't need to cut a deal with Hillary for VP to get the nomination or win in November.
May 23, 2008 10:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Listen Obama: NO BILLARY Clinton for VP.
May 23, 2008 11:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nailed it!
Just say NO to Shrillary for VP.
May 23, 2008 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Everyone knows its over except Hillary.
May 23, 2008 11:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, he is going to PR.
But I thought it was over.
She will win the popular vote and prove this joke of an election is total bs.
May 23, 2008 11:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
She and Gore can cry about their popular vote if she actually wins that (which she doesn't according to NORMAL math).
May 23, 2008 11:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Clinton "Popular Vote" argument ignores caucus states and includes Clinton's votes in Michigan (where I live) and Florida, while not counting any of the "uncommitted" votes in Michigan. So, only by ignoring the rules and counting votes from contests that even Clinton agreed wouldn't "count for anything" and not counting votes from valid primaries can this argument be raised.
May 23, 2008 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
I wonder --- if what is being said by Bloomberg and CNN is true and there are negotiations going on --- if maybe Hillary has some sense there's about to be a large number of SD declarations for Obama? Of course, if that's the case, Obama surely knows it, too, and should, in the immortal words of Nancy Reagan, "JUST SAY NO!"
May 23, 2008 11:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
You should know all about BS, troll.
May 23, 2008 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
The idea of giving the VP slot to Hillary as a "compromise" is disgusting to me. She's already lost; the only thing she offers in the way of a "compromise" is that she'll stop trying to tear the party apart.
May 23, 2008 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm selling my Wii and donating the money to Hillary, so that Haim Saban can bribe more Super Delegates into jumping on this sinking ship.
May 23, 2008 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
I heard on Boston radio this morning that 2 Edwards delegates from NH were switching their support to Obama today. Have not seen it in print anywhere yet.
Wish there was more SD movement so they can seat the FL/MI delegates. I was glad to see Cardoza put that in his statement.
May 23, 2008 11:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent statements and good timing. Step right on up Super-d's, and save the party!
May 23, 2008 11:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
"I will not support changing the rules in the fourth quarter..."
While I appreciate the support and the sentiment, it seems odd that matters of integrity and principal are just now coming to the forefront.
May 23, 2008 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
James Pindell of the Globe is reporting the NH switch of Edwards delegates to Obama.
Two NH Edwards delegates back Obama
By James W. Pindell
LEBANON -- Two New Hampshire delegates for John Edwards said this morning that when they go to the Democratic National Convention they will be voting for Barack Obama, PolitickerNH.com has learned.
State Sen. Peter Burling (D-Cornish) and Hanover activist Deborah Bacon-Nelson made the announcement this morning at Lebanon High School, where Bacon-Nelson is a teacher.
With his third-place finish in New Hampshire in January, Edwards secured four delegates in the Granite State. Nationwide he has 19 delegates.
May 23, 2008 11:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Eric
Don't count on it cos' they ain't gonna count them MI/FL like you wish ( and dream about). It ain't happenin'.
May 23, 2008 11:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
I cannot believe that after having run such an exceptional, thoughtful and for the most part 'pitch perfect' campaign that Obama would make the collosal mistake of being 'blackmailed' into accepting this divisive, self-centered, tone-deaf and (I'm increasingly convinced) not entirely stable person as a VP candidate. It would be the one thing -- the first thing -- that made me seriously question his judgment and backbone.
But I do respect his judgment and backbone so I don't believe that he will give in. And I pray I'm right!
Obama/Biden '08
May 23, 2008 11:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
57!
May 23, 2008 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Anyone notice the Survey USA poll for Ohio just released?
I believe it is accurate (why won't Eric give it its own thread?).
Obama will win Ohio.
Book it!
May 23, 2008 11:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
9pts over McCain in OH!
May 23, 2008 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why a U.S. Senator from New York (secure in her position until she started demonstrating bunny-boiling potential) would abdicate to become a VP makes no sense...unless she's planning to install a circular saw under the floor of the Oval Office. Exorcise the DLC; once you let them in it would be like bedbugs. This defection is a sign of where things stand, Hil; time to come "home" for another "listening tour", far, far upstate.
May 23, 2008 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is so obvious there is no way left for Hillary to win, so why does she keep ripping at the heart of the party? If she wants to be VP, she'd play nice. She is still hoping for another Rev Wright to revive her argument that she is the better candidates. Yet poll after poll shows Obama gaining in all of her strong holds, from Hispanics to Ohio. Every day, she runs off more superdelegates. Her negative campaign is forcing them to jump ship.
It is often said that to continue to do the same, ineffective thing and expect a different result is a definition of insanity. The lady lives in a dream world where she thinks she can win blue collar Appalachia, which only went for her because Obama is black, and talk radio is a 24-7 Obama hate fest. In a general election, when they aim all their guns at her for months, she'll do worse than Kerry. But she can't see that. All she sees is that the world is conspiring to steal HER PRESIDENCY from her.
Iceberg is right. She's in Bunny Boiling teritory now. And how DID things end for Glen Close in that movie???
May 23, 2008 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let's see.. what is the rate of superdels adding to Obama? Two per day? 10/week? At that rate this will continue for another two months. Maybe my numbers are jacked...
May 23, 2008 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
The ratio over the past two weeks has been about 7 Obama supers to Hillary's 1.
May 23, 2008 12:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
To the supers that have voted: Thank you.
More, please....
May 23, 2008 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
There are 209 Super Delegates left. He is getting 7 over the week-end
Alaska: 1
Georgia: 2
Wyoming: 1
Hawaii: 3
There are 7 pledge delegates left from Senator Edwards
There are 86 pledge delegates left from the last 3 primaries
And he is 57 away (not including Florida and Michigan)
Let's say he gets 40 from the left primaries: (PR,SD,MT)
He needs another 10 SDs before May 31st. If he does, that would send another pretty strong message to the Clinton campaign...
May 23, 2008 12:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
"There are 209 Super Delegates left. He is getting 7 over the week-end."
How do you know he's getting 7 over the weekend?
I think your estimate on 40 pledged to Obama from the remaining primaries is a tad high. SD and MT are likely to be 8-8 splits unless one or the other has a really strong showing. I haven't seen much on what will happen in PR, but from what I've heard Clinton is supposed to win there. With 54 Dels, PR might not give Obama enough to hit 40 when adding in his 16 from SD & MT. A safer bet would be about 35.
Also, since all three remaining primaries happen AFTER May 31, getting 10 or even 15 SD's before then won't signify much. After May 31, there will also likely be a new 'magic number' with some sort of compromise made to seat FL and MI. When that happens, the number of delegates Obama will need to secure the nomination will go up a lot; however, he will also receive a large number of delegates from those states and so the net will only be a slight increase in the number of delegates Obama needs to win the nomination.
Ultimately, Obama will probably need an additional 50-100 supers to go his way to lock this thing up, which, while completely doable, probably won't happen until sometime after the final primaries in early June.
May 23, 2008 1:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
susa ohio...how about yesterday's susa VIRGINIA.....the heart of the freakin' confederacy
May 23, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't be too surprised. Until recently, Virginia was the only state in history that had elected an African American as governor, too.
May 23, 2008 1:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Latest on the SDs front:
Oregon DNC member Jenny Greenleaf has endorsed Obama, there should be more SDs from Oregon since he won by 19%...
May 23, 2008 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
She doesn't care about those superdelegates. Her fight is bigger than them or this primary or this race. She's trying to free the slaves!
May 23, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
The 7 Super Delegates coming this week-end are add-ons from Caucus or prmaries he won.
Alaska: 1
Georgia: 2
Wyoming: 1
It also includes some elections in Hawaii,
Obama won the Hawaii Caucuses. Candidates for the Chair position are Annelle Amaral and Brian Schatz. Schatz is a former member of Obama's campaign in Hawaii, and has been endorsed by Obama. Amaral is a Clinton supporter but has committed to voting for Obama at the convention. In addition, Obama has endorsed James Burns, former chief judge of the state Intermediate Court of Appeals, for the add-on position.
Regarding the elections in Puerto Rico, Bill Richardson is campaigning on behalf of Senator Obama. Senator Obama will also in PR next week. The governor of PR has also endorsed Obama (the governor is in touble), so the reason why I am so optimistic about PR is because he has some strong support.
May 23, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
I read somewhere that PR usually always goes the way the governor goes, but since he's under investigation, who knows.
May 23, 2008 2:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Latest, Obama got 5 super delegates today. So he only needs 56 more delegates.
May 23, 2008 5:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah... here's the info on those five delegates he got.
At this rate, Hillary could get all the delegates for Michigan and *still* lose.
May 24, 2008 2:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
No one has the nomination clinched until the vote is held at the convention.
The problem with Michigan and Florida is that the way the DNC rules were enforced violates the democratic principle of allowing the citizens of all states to vote in choosing the nominee. Yes, Michigan and Florida agreed to a schedule, New Hampshire violated it and got a waiver, Michigan and Florida violated it and did not. It's called selective enforcement.
Obama violated the rules by running ads which appeared in Florida media markets.
May 24, 2008 9:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
First of all you don't even know what you're talking about. New Hampshire asked in advance if they could move their primary up, and they were granted a waiver in advance. Florida and Michigan on the other hand, just unilaterally moved up their primaries without consultation with the DNC. So, it's not "selective enforcement".
Moreover, there was a specific reason why New Hampshire was permitted to move up their primary: This was done to have the first four contests split between 4 different regions of the country, with 2 being primaries and 2 being caucuses.
Finally, Obama wanted to buy into the national ad market, but couldn't do it without including Florida, so the DNC gave him permission to air those ads in Florida. Know your facts before you post.
May 24, 2008 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink