O Eric, I love that exclamation point.

You take so much abuse and that is such a nice little touch in your post.

And of course, I love good news. LOL!

This kind of situation, where pledged delegates can be released and choose to go with another candidate, one supported by their original candidate, shows why in primaries the more important factor is not the total of votes but the total of delegates!

I hope all Edwards' delegates choose Barack. As John has done. And I hope this things gets wrapped up really soon!

It's time to focus on November!

♪♪♪

Do not feed it.

According to the current rules, Obama will eclipse this mark for sure on May 20. Since the rules currently state that FL and MI don't count, Obama is only 25 delegates short of the majority of pledged dels. The number, should it change, would do so on May 31, so he will pass the pledged majority on May 20, thus giving him 11 days to wrangle up a deluge of supers to put him over the 2025 mark by May 31. He needs to average about 4.5 supers a day (including a win in OR and a loss in KY) to get to 2025 by May 31. He has been averaging around this the last couple of days, and assuming he gets the 'majority of available pledged dels' talking point on May 20, he could easily be at 2025 by May 31.

Then, we can talk about FL and MI, but only in the context of Obama already having won, not in the Clinton framework where those delegates actually can change the outcome.

Just for shits and giggles, Eric when will Clinton clinch a majority of the pledged delegates?

He wouldn't actually even need a "strong win" in Oregon to get to 34 delegates next Tuesday.

Kentucky has 51 pledged delegates, Oregon has 52. Even if Clinton wins Kentucky in a West Virginia-like blowout, Obama will still pick up between 15 and 20 delegates from Kentucky. Let's keep it on the low side and say he gets 16.

He's almost certain to win in Oregon, but let's again stay on the low side an say he only wins in a squeaker (say, 52-48 or thereabouts). He'd wind up with a slight majority of Oregon's 52 delegates--let's say 27.

Combine those 27 with the 16 he gets from Kentucky--and remember again that these are both VERY pessimistic numbers--and he picks up 43 delegates, which is 9 more than he needs to hit this new "majority threshold".

Al Giordano @ The Field is already ahead of the curve (as he often is) by 24 hours and called the Edwards endorsement as The Grand Slam.

He was also way ahead of everyone on the "applacian white voter problem".

Crystal Ball:

Al Gore will endorse Obama in Florida on May 21.

So, at the end of Tuesday, May 20, Clinton gracefully drops out. Right?

Clinton has made the point that nothing is set in stone until votes are cast at the Convention in August, that delegates can vote at the Convention for whomever seems most electable at the time, regardless of pledges or public commitments. Any pre-Convention agreement about MI and FL that favors Clinton will decrease the number of delegates she would have to turn in August, based on whatever electability issues she can raise between now and then - i.e. it would encourage her to work aggressively to undermine Obama between now and the Convention. This is our fear about the Clinton camp, that they will work to undermine Obama between now and the Convention in hopes of getting the nomination, and then between the Convention and the election to keep him out of the White House.

The power shift from the Clintons and the current Party power brokers and financial backers to a new generation of Democrats is a traumatic one for those who are losing power, and IMO it will be fought aggressively at every step.

The power shift from the Clintons and the current Party power brokers and financial backers to a new generation of Democrats is a traumatic one for those who are losing power, and IMO it will be fought aggressively at every step.

Yep.

The entire structure of old power in the party is falling apart because it was outdated - the Clintons are way behind the times, obviously.

I said yesterday that I think the Clintons tried to run Hillary's campaign the way they always have done politics - off the cuff, on instinct and guts and that might work for someone when they are in their 30s and 40s but you cannot move that quickly in your 50s and 60s.

They seemed unable to comprehend that it is no longer just a matter of Bill standing there talking good bullshit and moving right along. There is YouTube now and bullshit gets called what it is - you can't escape.

Obama has run a campaign that mirrors his temperament, which is analytical and even. I really love the even part. The campaign has been about as smooth so far as any I've seen and I find that so very attractive after these last awful 8 not just bumpy but almost unendurable roller coaster ride years. I'm so damn tired of drama.

The Torch has been passed to a new generation of Democrats!

Last night (5/14), I worked out the math for an earlier, now-disappeared post and am re-posting it here, with slight tweaks. This focuses ONLY on the PLEDGED delegates because, barring some horrid scandal, I don't think that the SDs could deny the nomination to whoever wins the pledged delegates .. not without risking intraparty civil war.

Bottom line: Without counting MI & FL or any Edwards delegates, Obama gets majority of pledged delegates on May 20. ---- Counting MI & FL but not counting any Edwards delegates, Obama gets the majority of all pledged delegates on June 1. ---- If you factor in Edwards' 18, then Obama gets the majority of all delegates on May 31.

WITHOUT FL and MI:
Total pledged delegates -- 3253
Needed for majority of pledged delegates -- 1627

WITH FL and MI:
Total pledged delegates -- 3566
Needed for majority of pledged delegates -- 1783

1599 - Obama's current pledged delegates
(using conservative estimates for upcoming contests)
18 - KY: 65/35 for Clinton
28 - OR: 47/53 Obama
1645 pledged delegates as of May 20
(18 more than majority w/o FL & MI)

55 MI - (# of delegates for 'uncommitted')
73 FL - (# of delegates Obama 'won')
1773 as of May 31
(10 short of majority w/ FL & MI)

19 - PR 65/35 for Clinton
1792 as of June 1
(9 more than majority w/ FL & MI)

9 - MT 45/55 for Obama
8 - SD 45/55 for Obama
1809 as of June 3
(26 more than majority w/ FL & MI)

If Edwards' 18 pledged delegates are added in (and not just considered to be 'superdelegates' since Edwards can only request), then Obama could have the majority of pledged delegates, even counting MI and FL, as of May 31.

Using the same estimates, here are Clinton's numbers on pledged delegates:
1447 - current total for Clinton
33 - KY
22 - OR
1502 as of May 20
73 - MI
105 - FL
1680 as of May 31
36 - PR
1716 as of June 1
7 - MT
7 - SD
1730 as of June 3

Take out MI and FL altogether, and Clinton would have 1552 at the end of all the contests; Obama would have 1681. (Difference belongs to Edwards, other candidates)

It really is over.

Eric -

Does the "!" in the Headline mean you're 'perosnally' excited or was that a typo?

;-P

Since May 31 is supposedly the day the question of MI and FL will be addressed, isn't this a moot point? The delegates are not going to be seated between now and Tuesday.

What will happen is that Obama will cross the threshold of a majority of pledged delegates (not including FL & MI) and declare victory. Then he will work to seat those FL & MI delegations on May 31 while obviously not agreeing to any plan that would negate his majority of pledged delegates.

Obama did in fact predict, after his 5/6 NC win and IN split, that he'd get the majority of pledged delegates on 5/20. The man has a cabal of geniuses working on his campaign.

Come on, sweetie.

No one has done more for pledged delegates than Barack Obama.