Obama Campaign Manager: On May 20th, We'll Have Won Majority Of Pledged Delegates
As I reported here last night, yesterday's results have left Obama aides increasingly confident that a potentially game-ending milestone is within their reach:
On May 20th, the day of the Kentucky and Oregon primaries, they predict, Obama will finally clinch a majority of the pledged delegates.
Obama advisers say that when that happens, they will be able to tell the super-delegates that his securing of a majority of pledged dels should prompt super-dels to support them en masse.
On a conference call with reporters just now, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe made this strategy explicit.
Plouffe noted that when you factor in last night's gains, Obama is now 33 short of winning a majority of the 3,253 pledged delegates.
"That will happen on May 20th," Plouffe confidently predicted, adding: "We think that will be an incredibly important date in the campaign."
If the contest is still going on by then, there's little doubt that Obama's official clinching of a majority of pledged dels will give the Obama camp a powerful piece of leverage to use in urging super-dels to put an end to this thing.
Late Update: A detailed look at the numbers leaves little doubt that this milestone is within reach.
Late Update: Here's the audio from the call:
And THAT is the unvarnished TRUTH!
May 7, 2008 11:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama gets 4 more superdelegates:
May 7, 2008 1:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great news--who are they?
May 7, 2008 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I CAN HARDLY WAIT TO DENY HER!
Barry makes me feel good. Like a massage.
But Hillary makes me feel safe.
I'm up for a safe massage.
YOU VOTED YOUR GUILTY CONSCIENCE
NOW WORK ON YOUR EXCUSE
May 7, 2008 10:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
This has nothing to do with the focus on May 20th.
Obama has a major problem. He's very likely to lose West Virginia and Kentucky, whether or not Hillary withdraws from the race. Even a narrow win would be a huge embarassment, and reopen all the hackneyed questions about his ability to win the white working class.
The Obama campaign does not want Hillary to withdraw before voters go to the polls in Kentucky. As things stand, his defeats (by wide margins) in those states are expected - all he can do is meet or exceed expectations. If she formally withdraws, they're screwed - they'll face two emabarassing losses, and weeks of negative coverage.
So they've found a (fairly arbitrary) milestone on which to stake their claims - they're encouraging everyone to look forward two weeks to the day when they'll win a majority of pledged delegates. Who cares? I can tell you right now that he'll win that majority - and I could (and did) say the same thing two months ago with absolute confidence. That's the beauty of proportional representation. The main reason that the Obama camp would like us to focus on May 20 is that it doesn't want to declare the race over until we're past two (almost) certain losses.
May 7, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain was in tight competition with Huckabee after it was widely recognized that it was over - and Huckabee even won Kansas. And really, who cares about "weeks" of that kind of press when it's been made obvious that Obama can weather much tougher storms than that?
May 7, 2008 5:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think it's fairly obvious that Obama's campaign is trying to offset Hillary's two wins next week. However, this is simply a great strategy by the Obama camp. Hillary supporters and her campaign saying that tuesday was "virtually a split" I hink we can also agree is a good strategy. The fact is that, on Tuesday, Obama gave her another choice in regards to which hole she uses. We both know that. However, in regards to this: "So they've found a (fairly arbitrary) milestone on which to stake their claims - they're encouraging everyone to look forward two weeks to the day when they'll win a majority of pledged delegates. Who cares? I can tell you right now that he'll win that majority - and I could (and did) say the same thing two months ago with absolute confidence."
Who cares? I think that a lot of people care. I think that the Super delegates, as well as the American people SHOULD care. I think that there is a significant amount of people who believe that it's not over 'till the fat lady sings. Well, there are some superdelegates and some American people who can hear her practicing in the back. I think it's time to pull out the violins.
May 8, 2008 7:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Safe bet. Just win 50% of Oregon.
Go Obama!
May 7, 2008 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
oops, I was going off 65 not the 52 still available to Oregon.
Still, 50% of 52 = 26.
He needs 7 combined from Kentucky and WV. This is a great strategy, because even when they lose WV, they'll still be able to claim they are closer to the magic number.
May 7, 2008 11:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Is Oregon alone enough to put Obama over the top, or is it Oregon and Kentucky? If the end game goes to Kentucky, this will provide a great bit of political trivia for future political wonks:
Which candidate secured the nomination after losing a state primary?
-or-
Which candidate lost the nomination after winning a state primary?
Either way, I agree with calls that Obama and Hillary should stay in the race to let a state put the nominee over the top.
May 7, 2008 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eh. It's not very precise. Arguably, this nomination was over in February. A "majority" of pledged delegates doesn't actually mean the election has been won, it is simply a more powerful metric to display to superdelegates in order tohelp the Obama campaign to the required number of total delegates.
A for primary campaign losses after primary election victories, one hit wonders in NH or IA might fill that list up pretty quickly.
May 7, 2008 1:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, Greg. I posted David Plouffe's letter to the superdelegates here:
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/05/obama-camp-letter-to-superdele.php
The math is undeniable, and this will convince whatever undeclared supers to back Obama. A couple more weeks, folks, and this thing will be sewn up, no matter what spin the Clinton campaign puts out there about her probable win in WV next week.
May 7, 2008 11:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
It shouldn't even take that long.
The writing is on the wall, you don't need a weatherman to tell you which way the wind blows, etc.
~
May 7, 2008 12:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, but a lot of those delegates came from states that are not important.
And Hillary deserves the nomination! Bill promised! Democrats need to remember that the Democratic party serves the Clintons, not the other way around.
May 7, 2008 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
This milestone's within reach?
LOL - It's actually well said - since no one can guarantee anything but -
I do love the understatement here - he already has them lined up or they wouldn't be saying this.
;)
May 7, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tena, I actually think they're trying to be very gracious and are allowing Clinton a graceful way of exiting with her dignity intact and with a couple of wins under her belt (what dignity is left, I don't know). Classy act, that Obama campaign! ;)
May 7, 2008 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's been doing that all along it seems to me, Carol.
He never has just dumped a bunch and said: "in your face!"
May 7, 2008 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yup, that's so true. And, truth be told, very, very smart from a political standpoint because he'll need a fair number of Clinton supporters in the fall, so anything he can do to lessen the blow for them is a good thing. Boy, he's good! ;)
May 7, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
They lost this thing in February and now, for the first time, they are admitting it.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/07/senior-clinton-aide-its-g_n_100578.html
May 7, 2008 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
CAN I GET AN IDIOTIC WAVE?!?!?!?!?
May 7, 2008 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
THIS
May 7, 2008 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
IS
May 7, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
EXCELLENT
May 7, 2008 12:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
NEWS
May 7, 2008 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
!!!!!!!!
May 7, 2008 12:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
FOR
May 7, 2008 12:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
HILLARY!!!
May 7, 2008 12:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yay!
May 7, 2008 12:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
HILLMENTUM!!!!!
May 7, 2008 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Woohoo!!!!! ;)
May 7, 2008 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
and for the cheer that's hanging below:
THIS
May 7, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
IS
May 7, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
EXCELLENT
May 7, 2008 12:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
NEWS
May 7, 2008 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
FOR
May 7, 2008 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
HILLARY!!!!!!!
May 7, 2008 12:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
HILLARY!
May 7, 2008 12:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
GO!
May 7, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
HILLMENTUM!
May 7, 2008 1:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
™
May 7, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
This was beautiful.
May 8, 2008 12:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think I can finally lay off this primary stuff, and not a moment too soon as it is in the middle of finals week for me.
Last night was impressive, and pretty much unexpected (though Greg D and I were pretty close on our predictions: IN: O+2; NC: O+14).
Let Hillary choose her path. This is over, and will be, officially, on 21 May. She gets to shine in KY and WV, while Obama secures it in OR. Hillary gets to bow out on a positive note, by claiming victory, and limit expenditures over the next two weeks, paying down some of her debt. Both are shown on the teevee as "winners."
You see, I don't think Hillary is nearly as evil as alot of the Obamaverse thinks she is. She can read tea leaves and knows strategy. During her speech last night, her demeanor (rather downcast for a "victory party"), as well as her family's, spoke volumes.
Chelsea was having a hard time keeping a smile on her face and Bill looked like HE had been crying. Hillary was strong and defiant, but, well, not quite as strong as in recent history.
Live by the expectations game, die by the expectations game. I think Eight Belles this weekend was a significant omen, no? She'll bow out gracefully, fight hard for the nominee, and be the good Democrat we always thought she was (before this fight).
Thanks for the great campaign, Hillary. I'm sorry you and your supporters are hurt by what has happened, but that's politics, unfortunately. Look at the bright side, though. From now on we get to work together to defeat John McSame, and seize control of the government! We'll all win when that occurs!
May 7, 2008 12:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great post Angry Vet!
May 7, 2008 12:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Angry vet
You have been one of the thoughtful and yet forceful posters here. I enjoyed reading your posts. Thanks.
May 7, 2008 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, guys. I appreciate that.
Of course, I have nothing to back this up, so it's all out of my ass.
Either way, I think last night told us to stop the flame wars once and for all. If you are a Hillary fan, great, be a Hillary fan. Same goes for Obama fans. But, in the end, we are all Democrats.
Reality first!
May 7, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
They're being offered a graceful exit.
They should take it, instead of rolling out new arguments about how an ass-shellacking was really a "win" because they got more of the white voters. It's just another ugly reminder of how black votes "don't count" just like small states, caucus states, states with names that end with the letter "a", states with mountains or large lakes, etc etc also don't count.
May 7, 2008 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep - here's a reminder just how many states and voters don't count:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9xI44haWkI
May 7, 2008 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
I so agree. I've been saying all morning - take the easy way out,Hillary. The hard way is just more humiliation.
May 7, 2008 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
According to Drudge (I know, consider the source,) hillary is having a tad bit of trouble with the super delegates today.
May 7, 2008 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ha!
May 7, 2008 12:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
O man.
Ok, at this point I can't even work up any schadenfreude over that. It's over and I feel just a little sorry for her right now. Just a little. And only for her - nobody else.
May 7, 2008 12:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Really, I agree with this. I thought I'd feel a perverse glee in that report (if it's true), but all I feel is sadness and pity. We all talk about Bush's legacy and what a joke it is, but the Clintons' legacy is really the story here - they have trashed their reputations as far as a good many Democrats are concerned and I'm not sure she can recover from the shoddy, nasty, mean-spirited way she's run this campaign.
May 7, 2008 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Absolutely.
And did Obama do what he easily could have -- bring up Monicagate and all that other crap from the 90's? He didn't. He was classy.
That repulsive wombat Garin was on NPR last night, talking about how the Clinton campaign was sure it could woo black voters back come November. The gall of that attitude just about made my jaw drop. The shit they expect people to take from them and still kiss them back, still after all these months, it floors me.
Claire McCaskill was getting some flak on this board last night about her voting record, but I thought she did a great job on NPR last night too. The interviewer brought up the old "Obama can't win white working class" canard and she just shot right back "Well, you can just as easily ask Why can't Clinton win the black vote?" It was wonderful.
May 7, 2008 12:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's not really a canard. Right now it's true. And since Obama is "inevitable", it doesn't matter what Clinton can or can't do.
But maybe Obama can defeat McCain without the help of bitter white losers. He can just fire up his base.
May 7, 2008 3:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree, Carol.
It's been saddening to watch the Clintons during these last months.
May 7, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not sure she can recover from the shoddy, nasty, mean-spirited way she's run this campaign
Absolutely Carol. I for one, I'm looking forward to her Senate or Governor run in New York. I'm certain, after their filthy campaign, Bill and Hillary have over run their stay and it's time for end of their era.
May 7, 2008 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
It may be over, but just you wait, I bet the Clinton's are not done throwing feces.
Don't feel sorry for the rattle snake you ran over until you are sure it is no longer a threat, or something like that.
May 7, 2008 12:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
It'll pass. She'll do something ugly again- like real soon.
May 7, 2008 12:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Run for your political lives Super Delegates. Stay away from Hillary. She will give you "Broke" Cooties.
May 7, 2008 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
how can they say that when they don't know what is going to happen in the next contest of west virigina, an so forth.
May 7, 2008 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary's going to win, that's not in doubt. But it just doesn't do enough for her at this point.
May 7, 2008 12:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Because it doesn't matter now.
She cannot catch up and the campaign knows it.
When are the supporters going to catch up with reality?
May 7, 2008 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think she'd have to win something like 7000% of all remaining delegates even to have a chance.
May 7, 2008 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think we do know what is going to happen in West Virginia and Kentucky. This is rather specious, like complaining that the network called the race for your opponent too early, when they lead with 60% of the vote with 5% counted.
My question for Hillary supporters: Give me a scenario (not involving lightning, plane accidents, etc) where Hillary wins the nomination.
May 7, 2008 12:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
She will win WVA and KY, so what?
IT'S OVER!
Deal with it.
May 7, 2008 12:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you're looking for something like:
28 delegates in WV
51 delegates in KY
52 delegates in OR
=131 delegates between now and May 20
Obama needs 33
33/131=.252= 25.5% meaning that if he doesn't lose by 50+ points in the next 3 contests, he'll reach that threshold.
THATS how *they* can say
May 7, 2008 12:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
There's no way she can win the nomination now, even with blow outs in WV and KY (and they will be blow outs from listening to my coworkers here in Huntington this morning). All that's left is the dignity. I'd rather not see her humiliated even if I was pretty upset about the tone of her campaign.
HRC still has a huge role to play in Dem politics- Senate Maj Leader or Governor both leap to mind, but only if she puts the Dems first. She did very well considering the caliber of her opponent. If Obama hadn't been the perfect choice for this particular election she may very well have been the nominee. It's her bad luck the universe conspired against her this time. Now she needs to prove she can lose with grace so she can go on to win other victories.
May 7, 2008 1:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Senator Obama should woo Senator Byrd of West Virginia. They both opposed the Iraq War from the beginning. Senator Byrd could really be a big help in West Virginia.
Every one needs to get back in the game. Hillary has not quit. She is still throwing punches. Keep your guards up.
May 7, 2008 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
"how can they say that when they don't know what is going to happen in the next contest of west virigina, an so forth."
Silly Rabbit, tricks are for Mark Penn.
May 7, 2008 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!!!!!
"no you can't have it back, silly rabbit!" {sorry - channeling Flava.}
May 7, 2008 12:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
..and you can quote Public Enemy as well??!! If there wasn't such an extensive public record(my blog) of me being what my own mother characterizes as "an insufferable prick" - I'd openly court you on TPM. lol People on here rock.
May 7, 2008 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
One could easily make a montage of conservative pundits' tearing their hair out over Wright, the "typical white person" comment, his middle name, and set it to "Fear of a Black Planet."
May 7, 2008 12:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
You must have missed my comment to you yesterday - I'm thrilled you know who I'm quoting.
Hang around more - I need someone who can understand some of the shit I post.
;)
May 7, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have to confess that I knew your Mike the Headless Chicken reference.
May 7, 2008 1:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm curious how much time Obama will actually spend in Kentucky or West Virginia.
May 7, 2008 12:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not much of a mathematician or a political strategist, but it seems to me that Clinton's new math is all backwards. The number of delegates needed to win the nomination should be much lower rather than higher if MI and FL are taken out of the picture. If you don't count 2 states' delegates, then the total number of available delegates is also reduced, isn't it? Why then isn't the target reduced proportionately?
Seems to me that the Magic Number should go down, not up. Just wonderin' here....
May 7, 2008 12:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
The magic number did go down because Florida and Michigan are not being counted. If they were included, the number would go back up.
May 7, 2008 12:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah, I see. I missed that part of the movie. Thanks for the update.
May 7, 2008 1:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
No. The magic number hasn't changed because the rules haven't changed.
Y'all aren't suggesting changing the rules in the middle of the game are ya?
FL and MI should and will be seated.
May 7, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary is talking now and she still sounds deflated.
May 7, 2008 12:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Swan song...she's trying her best to sound enthused and ready to rock. She's done son.
May 7, 2008 12:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Remember, Byrd was once in the freaking Klan. He is also perhaps the most beloved figure in WV political history.
The symbolism of an Obama endorsement would be huge. No doubt Sen. Byrd knows it, too.
May 7, 2008 12:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
NC State Dem
Your confident prediction on NC came true. Congrats.
May 7, 2008 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
That is why I suggested it, and Senator Byrd did give a magnificent speech against authorizing the Iraq War, just like Obama did.
May 7, 2008 1:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Byrd coming out for Obama -- that would be like the 20th century giving its nod of approval to the 21st.
May 7, 2008 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Boy, I would love to see that. While I am still somewhat troubled by Senator Byrd's racist past, he has repudiated that past. And he has been the absolute champion of the Constitution in the Senate for the last decade. I have heard him on many occasions stand and give passionate speeches, speaking the truth and saying what others aren't willing to say.
His endorsement of Obama at this point would be very good for the country, and it would warm my heart. I hope it happens.
-- ARG
May 7, 2008 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey NC State Dem - you delivered, baby!
Man, did you deliver!
May 7, 2008 12:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, she just rolled out Heath Shuler's endorsement, so she isn't sounding too "done" to me. Sounded last night like he was going to support whoever won his district or some such.
Hopefully Obama's supers will be tumbling out of his sleeve any time now...
May 7, 2008 1:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Appropriate. Shuler was one of the biggest flops in NFL history.
May 7, 2008 1:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
To be fair, Shuler said that he was going to support whoever won his district. He's simply supporting the will of his district.
Say what you will about his NFL 'career', he's made a politically safe decision.
That being said, Obama's already nailed 4 Supers today....and I'm betting there's +12 more by the end of the week (Saturday).
May 7, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love it! The last time the Oregon primary was important was... never!
May 7, 2008 1:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, it was very important in '68 where Gene McCarthy upset Bobby Kennedy.
(Just showing my age here, that's all.)
May 7, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, I'll have to read up on that.
May 7, 2008 2:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
1,626 is not 2025.
Are y'all suggesting Obama wants to change the rules in the middle of the game?
The SDs that have not committed publicly or privately are keeping their powder dry as they should.
As long as Clinton is in it I support her.
Strange things can still happen between now and the convention.
May 7, 2008 1:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey fogu, how is Hillary going to pay for the next month of campaigning? Love to hear your theory on that.
May 7, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
and such is your right fogu2. If the roles were reversed, many of us would support Obama until it was absolutely over.
I just hope that now as the end of this primary season nears, that all of we dems can stop attacking one another and start focusing on McCain.
The differences between Obama's views and Clinton's views are miniscule when compared to McCain.
I hope that should Obama win the nod, that you could support a fellow Dem.
May 7, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
He'll get 2025 soon enough. Once all the primaries are over, he'll need less than 80 SDs to push him over.
May 7, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
No use fantasizing about what a Byrd endorsement could do for Obama. He's absolutely doomed in W.Va. and Ky. Sadly, his problem there isn't as simple as in the South, where the slave culture bred generations of racists. After WWII, the mine companies brought up thousands of blacks from the South in the hopes of breaking the UMWA, and driving down wages. Blacks were viewed as usurpers and a general Appalachian wariness to outsiders exploded into full-blown racism. A similar thing happened in Western Pa. and Ohio. All these decades later, little has changed race-wise. Having lived in both W.Va. and Pittsburgh, I have deep affection for both places. But they racism runs deep there. I saw more Confederate flags in the Burgh than in Raleigh when I lived there. Obama really has his work cut out from him in this part of the country.
May 7, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I do believe Obama is about to announce 4 SDs gained today...
May 7, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
As the immortal Ann Richards might have said, "Stick a fork in her. She's done."
May 7, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Clinton never really had a chance with the superdelegates because they're more afraid of an intraparty Obamabot backlash than of an Obama loss to McCain. Electability? Who cares? Democrats lose presidential races all the time. It's no big deal.
The important thing is that the country not be deprived of its current stellar Democratic leadership team.
May 7, 2008 3:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I find it interesting that an Ann Richards quote was used here. She would undoubtedly be supporting Hillary, smart lady that she was. As she said Ginger Rogers had to do everything Fred Astaire did, only backwards and in high heels. You may have bought the nomination for your candidate and now you can stick your nose up in the air and act like you are doing us all a favor and saving the world while you are doing NOTHING, just like your candidate. You have no idea what people need. You will probably go to your graves with your wallets full and your delusions of graudeur intact. While the rest of us suffer another four years without a government who knows what it's doing. We have done it for almost eight years. We can do it for another four.
May 7, 2008 3:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have no doubt Ann Richards would have backed Hillary. But the quote applies and I didn't want to plagiarize. Besides, Richards had a sense of humor and humility that would have been particularly valuable today. She was also a realist and somehow I have a feeling if she was around today, she'd be gently telling Hillary to look at the big picture and look to her legacy.
May 7, 2008 5:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, no; the New Math total number of delegates is 183 higher. Didn't the Obama people get the memo?
May 7, 2008 3:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama didn't see fit to support a fellow Dem. He is still blaming a fellow Dem for the murderous behavior of a Republican Administration. He won't get my support. If I have to choose country over party, I will.
May 7, 2008 3:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not at all sure that Ann Richards would be backing Hillary over Obama.
Ann just might line up with two other smart Texas gals, Molly Ivins (RIP) and Sissy Farenthold, and reject Hillary because of her caving on the Iraq authorization.
May 7, 2008 4:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's what I'm talking about. Are you resorting to the same old negative talk. Can't blame you, you have had a good role model to follow in Barack Obama. New politics indeed. He as been as negative as anyone I have ever seen in politics and then turns around and says how awful it is.
Your boy would have probably wet himself if he had actually had to actually cast a vote in the authorization to use force in Iraq. It's easy to criticize when you haven't done anything.
May 7, 2008 4:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
"He as been as negative as anyone I have ever seen in politics"
Back that up. What specific statements by Obama are you talking about?
May 7, 2008 4:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, despite your typical Obama supporter mindset that you can order people around and say "back that up", I will respond to you.
I am giving examples of ideas he has put forth, so I'm not quoting him exactly.
He has intimated that it time for "this" generation, meaning the boomers I suppose, to step aside.
He has intimated that Hillary is a liar. He has sais she will do anything to get elected. He has as much as said he is the only one in world with enough judgment to be president (That's quite a condemnation of a lot of people), he has made it appear that Hillary was trying to help Bush go to war, when in fact she had been promised that would only be at the very last resort. He continually and deceptively twists what happened for his own political gain. I could go on for hours, but you get my drift. Hypocrisy in action.
May 7, 2008 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
"He has intimated that Hillary is a liar."
2 words: sniper fire. He didn't intimate anything about that fish story (check out the YouTube of the ABC debate if you doubt this, where he was asked point blank about her tall tale).
"He has sais she will do anything to get elected."
Bribing voters with gas tax refunds qualifies.
"[H]e has made it appear that Hillary was trying to help Bush go to war, when in fact she had been promised that would only be at the very last resort."
Bush's dog was the only one in the country that didn't know he was taking the country to war no matter what. If you doubt that, read Tom Ricks' FIASCO and then we can talk some more... In any event, she could've voted for the Levin amendment at the time, to forestall the rush to war, and she chose not to. And 5 years later, when she should've known better, she voted to give Bush another blank check on Iran. Don't blame us because your candidate backed the wrong horse.
May 7, 2008 9:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am not going tit for tat with you. None of your arguments hold water stemper. I am perfectly satisfied with my candidate. I'm blaming you for backing another untested, inexperienced, out of touch candidate who makes your gonads quiver. You get educated, then we can talk some more.
May 8, 2008 5:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
"I am not going tit for tat with you."
Scared? Wasn't it your candidate who teased Obama for being afraid to debate? Then how can it be that you yourself are afraid to debate?
"None of your arguments hold water stemper."
Really? How so?
"I am perfectly satisfied with my candidate. I'm blaming you for backing another untested, inexperienced, out of touch candidate who makes your gonads quiver."
I am willing to go on the record and state, categorically, that the Senator from Illinois has been nowhere near my gonads.
"You get educated, then we can talk some more."
Well, I have a college degree, but ... now that I've said that, you'll probably just dismiss me as an "elitist." Interesting how you've covered yourself both ways, from having to deal with someone who has a respectful disagreement with you.
May 8, 2008 9:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Watch for Obama's numbers in West Virginia and Kentucky to go up 10 points between now and the primaries. Nothing like a win to produce more wins.
May 7, 2008 5:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
You bet. Obama is a snowball thats just gonna start rolling down the hill now!
GOBAMA! BARACK on!
I like being elitist. Somebody has to tell those bitter dummies what to think.
( did I just type that out loud?!?)
May 7, 2008 6:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep, we all heard it too.
May 7, 2008 6:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Inspectormerlot, you ask about the potential Limbaugh effect in Oregon. As a resident if the Portland metro area, I would predict that Limbaugh has very little influence in this his blue state with its liberal/progressive demographics.
Also, this is a closed primary, which means no independents/undeclareds are able to vote, and the deadline has already passed for Republicans to re-register as Democrats if they wanted to make mischief.
Thirdly, Oregon has mail-in voting and ballots were sent out last week, so there will probably be a steady stream of ballots coming in between now and 5/20.
May 7, 2008 8:14 PM | Reply | Permalink