This has been, what, the third time we've had one of these rumors? I think this idea of 50 superdelegates (or whatever) releasing a joint statement announcing their support is farfetched, if only because most politicians want their moment in the sun. It doesn't make them look/feel like a decisive leader if they're part of a large pack.

Good analysis gregg and it makes complete sense. Once they commit you want them to do it publically or you risk losing them. It ain't rocket science.

Any more info on the rumor of those 40 California Supers?

While I'd prefer a flood, Ive been pretty happy with the drip, drip, drip.

It was done that way as to not embarrass Clinton and more than necessary.

If she announces that she is going to the convention after hearing the rules committed decision, then you WILL see groups come out for him.

Obama might not have them lined up personally, but when Pelosi & Dean say go, their handfuls will endorse.

Thanks for asking, Greg. Nice post and good work.

I'd love a flood, too, but like you say, joshuablog - I'll take whatever.

Greg, I think you mean "hoard." This isn't Warcraft.

OT: Today has been refreshingly free of BS from the Clinton camp so far. Howard must not have set his alarm clock.

under-promise, over deliver... the Obama team is very good for my nerves.

Oregon is coming to Senator Obama.

Oregon DNC Gail Rasmussen has endorsed Obama. And he got 2 Oregon SuperDelegates today.

And he should get all the SDs from the Pelosi Club after June 3rd.
The Pelosi Club should endorse the winner of the pledge delegates, and for those who don't know.

Pelosi confirmed that the will do everything to avoid a fight to the convention. She made this public yesterday.

Murdoch's just promoting the upcoming heavyweight fight.

Like Don King.

There are a few Senators and Reps that have endorsed Clinton that have said they will back the candidate with the most "pledged delegates," yet they have not moved over to Obama. I wonder, if after Tuesday, we won't see some of these switch.

Obama's already picked all the low hanging fruit. He's already shaken the tree and all he could get were a couple of loose apples. The rest are out of his reach.

It's doubtful Obama's really has a super secret super delegate stash. If this secret stash did exist and it would put him over the top, why is he sitting on them?

Yes, once they have a committment they roll it out as fast as they can... AND there are a large number of SDs who have publicly stated they won't endorse until after the primary season. You KNOW that BOTH campaigns know which way each one of them is leaning - and many more are going to endorse Obama. Some will do it on the 4th and others will drip, drip, drip. And then there will be some who'd otherwise support Clinton but who want to unite the party behind the candidate who won.

Obama will have enough to reach 2026 on Tuesday. And he'll get whatever more he needs after the FL/MI thing is settled. And then everyone will fall in line.

Except for Hillary and Bill.

And the rest of us will move on.

This entire 'idea' of a 'stash' of SD's started with Howard Fineman on MSNBC claiming 'sources' had told him that if Obama won the TX primary they were going to release a slew of SD's.

Why doesn't someone call up Fineman and ask him to verify/clairfy his 'sourcing'?

Here's the steady stream of crap from the Taylor Marsh site, which lets you know HRC is NOT even thinking about conceeding this think in June. QUOTE:

Based on the caucus results in the above states, Barack Obama gained 295 pledged delegates to Hillary Clinton's 158, a net advantage of 137 pledged delegates. Reallocating delegates based on the primary results or an interpolation based on the WA-TX-NE-ID data, Barack Obama would have won 233 to Hillary Clinton's 219, a net advantage of 14.

The use of low-turnout caucuses rather than higher-participation primaries is directly responsible for a net margin of 123 pledged delegates in Barack Obama's favor.

More stuff from Taylor Marsh:

Bill Clinton also said winning the popular vote “will prove she’s the popular choice of the Democrats,” despite ending with less delegates than Obama, the former president said in an impromptu press conference on the streets of Old San Juan. “And the party will have to decide whether they believe the caucuses -- where you get about one delegate for 2000 votes -- are more important than the primaries where you get one for 12,000,” he said. “And that this really astonishing race, where both have run amazing campaigns, they’re gonna have to decide how to resolve this.
----------------

These are the arguments we need to be able to counter and we need to have Obama supporters out in the press at this juncture talking against and refuting.

These are the challenges that need to be REBUTTEd if we are going to UNITE this party.

Folks are listening to Bill say this stuff and they BELIEVE him, because of his stature as a former President.

If we are unable to debunk Hillary due to not wanting to offend her supporters.

Then there needs to be a full fledged assault on Bill Clinton.

He has not respect for his legacy or the best interest of the Democratic party so why the hell should we?

It is time to take Bill Clinton down!!

Obvisously this is a man who has the unmitigated gall to challenge his own party after his total seamy fall from grace and his utterly heinous acts to defile the very Presidency in the eyes of the nation.

It is time for Bill Clinton to be taken down. We let him run all over this country in backwoods and rural counties polarizing the nation and demonizing the nominee on the basis of race.

I say enough is ENOUGH.

Take him DOWN and SHE will FALL too!!

He is her pedastal! He is the POWER...not HER.

Not to shift almost completely off topic (although this does kind of address the nomination) and not to put too much weight on one poll, but has anybody noticed what I would describe as a disturbing trend in Rasmussen's daily tracking poll? Obama's favorability rating has dropped and Hillary's has increased...they are now almost even. Even worse, Hillary is now tied with McCain while Obama has slipped to a five point deficit against McCain(he's lost a point each day over the last three days, after being tied on Monday) Finally, Obama only leads Hillary by 3 points in the Dem nomination poll...he led her by as much as 10 pts. as recently as 5/12.

Again, it's one poll, but Gallup's numbers, while a bit better for Obama, are showing a similar trend. And here I've been thinking that Obama has had two very good weeks. What's going on?

Time for another installment of Wolfson's Whoppers:

"I'll tell you what really frosts my wienie," said Wolfson, speaking between hits on his crack pipe. "No effort has been made to ascertain the wishes of extra-terrestrials. Our campaign has received several trillion inter-galactic emails and they all say , 'GORP SHNARK PSSFT GOLUM,' which translates literally to 'We support woman who much lies.'

"So, there you go. I guess you want to discount these votes, too. Add in these 3 trillion votes for Senator Clinton, along with another 3.2 billion from Puerto Rico, and she wins in a landslide. [COUGH] [COUGH] Man, this is some good shit."

But as we've already seen, once a superdelegate announces their choice, it isn't written in stone. They can always change their mind.

I so wish there was an "Ignore" button...It sure would make my day...

Poor Clinton trolls, it must be hard to live a delusional life

I can't get worked up over this, too many rumors and speculation shot down by Obama's continued campaigning.

He really is showing that even he doesn't know for sure until August.All the bluster about being the nominee on May 29 is being played out in the internet. He actually believes the miniscule support online will materialize in the real world. Time and again, Clinton a seasoned politico has proven otherwise.

The convention is too far away, the SDs have the luxury to change their votes. Its the tradition.

Obama's camp has tried to shout Hillary down and this is just one more shout down and has turned her supporters against Obama. He has run a campaign of bloggers who are mostly 20YOs with potty mouths that have demonized a decent lady.

Let the process proceed as scheduled.

I think this report is probably more accurate than not. I doubt Obama has 100 supers in his back pocket. But, I think they often delay announcement of high-profile endorsements for a few days to maximize the effect (e.g., the Wednesday after an election he knew he would do badly in).

On the other hand, I think das2003 made a good point that the Obama camp knows of a number of supers that will break his way only after all the voting is done. Some of them have hinted as much publicly (e.g., Pelosi and Carter). No doubt Clinton has a few of her own as well, but given there's been very little public hinting from supers on that, I imagine the number will be significantly less than Obama's.

And, just on pure intuition, I think we'll see many more defections from Clinton to Obama after June 3. Any responsible party member will recognize that Clinton has next to a zero chance of winning this at the convention, but the cost of letting this play out will be too damaging for the nominee - whoever it would be. To avoid such a fight, they will praise Clinton as their first choice, but recognize the need to have closure and pledge their vote for Obama, who they also see as an excellent candidate and worthy of the nomination - something like that. Maybe I'll be proven wrong, but that's my prediction.

Htere is something to the rumors: what's being referred to (obviously!!!) are private commitments that will be made public when the tipping point on public perceptions of the treatment of Hillary, amicable endgame, etc. etc., is reached, which will allow for the support to be made public. It's that simple. The rumor is that he has massive superdel support that is pent up by political consideration. She probably has some of the same, but not nearly as much as she needs. Then again maybe not, since what possible reason would any of her supporters have not to come out at this point? It will only become harder for them as the thing gets more and more over, and the pressure to rally around the nominee presumptive gets more and more intense.