Obama Campaign Aide: Tonight's Results Make It More Likely That May 20th Will Be Our D-Day
Tonight's big win in North Carolina has Obama advisers increasingly confident that they have a shot at effectively putting away the race by May 20th, an Obama campaign aide confirms.
The idea is that May 20th, the date of the Kentucky and Oregon primaries, is the Obama campaign's D-Day. That is, it's the date when Obama will clinch a majority of the 3,253 pledged delegates -- a number Obama advisers can take to the super-delegates and argue that the time has come for them to support Obama en masse.
"We are looking at May 20th as the day we clinch the majority of pledged delegates -- and that will be a compelling case to present to super delegates," the campaign aide says.
That May 20th is a potentially decisive date is not a new idea. But tonight's North Carolina results have reaffirmed confidence among Obama advisers that they can reach that milestone on that day.
Here are the numbers, according to the aide. To get a majority of pledged dels, Obama needs a total of 1,626. Right now he has 1,494, meaning he needs 132 more.
Assuming an even split of tonight's 187 delegates -- a conservative assumption, based on the North Carolina results thus far -- that would give Obama another 93 or 94.
That would mean that Obama needs another 38 to secure a majority.
In the three upcoming states between now and May 20th -- Kentucky, West Virginia, and Oregon -- there are a total of 131 delegates for the taking. Obama needs only 38 of those.
Oregon, where Obama is expected to do well, has 52. "Looking at the remaining contests conservatively, we think May 20th is the day we can clinch the majority," the aide says.
Of course, even if Obama does reach that milestone and clinch a majority of the pledged dels, that doesn't by any means guarantee that the super-dels will break towards him en masse or that Hillary won't fight on. But the Obama campaign hopes to have some powerful leverage on their side to end the race when that day comes.
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