Obama Campaign Aide: Tonight's Results Make It More Likely That May 20th Will Be Our D-Day
Tonight's big win in North Carolina has Obama advisers increasingly confident that they have a shot at effectively putting away the race by May 20th, an Obama campaign aide confirms.
The idea is that May 20th, the date of the Kentucky and Oregon primaries, is the Obama campaign's D-Day. That is, it's the date when Obama will clinch a majority of the 3,253 pledged delegates -- a number Obama advisers can take to the super-delegates and argue that the time has come for them to support Obama en masse.
"We are looking at May 20th as the day we clinch the majority of pledged delegates -- and that will be a compelling case to present to super delegates," the campaign aide says.
That May 20th is a potentially decisive date is not a new idea. But tonight's North Carolina results have reaffirmed confidence among Obama advisers that they can reach that milestone on that day.
Here are the numbers, according to the aide. To get a majority of pledged dels, Obama needs a total of 1,626. Right now he has 1,494, meaning he needs 132 more.
Assuming an even split of tonight's 187 delegates -- a conservative assumption, based on the North Carolina results thus far -- that would give Obama another 93 or 94.
That would mean that Obama needs another 38 to secure a majority.
In the three upcoming states between now and May 20th -- Kentucky, West Virginia, and Oregon -- there are a total of 131 delegates for the taking. Obama needs only 38 of those.
Oregon, where Obama is expected to do well, has 52. "Looking at the remaining contests conservatively, we think May 20th is the day we can clinch the majority," the aide says.
Of course, even if Obama does reach that milestone and clinch a majority of the pledged dels, that doesn't by any means guarantee that the super-dels will break towards him en masse or that Hillary won't fight on. But the Obama campaign hopes to have some powerful leverage on their side to end the race when that day comes.
I just love the way Obama starts his victory speech by congratulating Clinton on her Indiana win and thanking all his supporters in Indiana for their hard work. As far as I have observed Clinton hasn't done anything like that even once.
May 6, 2008 9:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep, 'classy' describes some but not all...
May 6, 2008 9:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Remember his 11-state streak.
She never once congratulated him on his victories.
OH! And remember when MSNBC cut away from her speech after, I don't remember, SC? Priceless.
May 6, 2008 9:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
fuck you too.
May 6, 2008 10:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Might've been Wisconsin. Priceless though.
May 6, 2008 10:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
FUCK YOU BARACK OBAMA!!! YOU ARE GOING DOWN!!!!!!!
May 6, 2008 10:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lol
May 6, 2008 10:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd say he's going down in history, as the first black president!!!!!!!
Spare me the curses.
May 6, 2008 10:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Temper, temper.
May 6, 2008 10:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Okee is ... Lanny Davis.
May 6, 2008 10:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sizzling late-night fare from darkhorse crowd favorite Okee, exploring a dialogue-driven style reminiscent of American Buffalo era Mamet crossed with the tender fury of Bukowski's finest Barwall Screeds, nonetheless hampered by the performer's insistence of pushing the scene further into the thread in an uneasy proto-interactive style that might well leave an unseemly Dinner Theatre feel with a TPM audience accustomed to more nuanced performances.
Known Troll: +5
Contrarian Troll Modifier: +3
Contrarian Monolithic Ref. Modifier: +2
Seeking Refuge in Scorn: +60 (A Personal Best!)
Enfant Provocateur Modifier: +45
Tantrum Modifier: +35
Trollus Vulgaris Modifier: +25
--------------------------------------------
Troll Rating: 175
May 6, 2008 10:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
lol. He may be a contender in the troll Olympics.
May 6, 2008 10:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
"An uneasy proto-interactive style that might well leave an unseemly Dinner Theatre feel with a TPM audience accustomed to more nuanced performances."
Sparkling wit that!
Bravo, sir. Bravo
May 6, 2008 10:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Two big thumbs up for TrollCritic 3000!!
May 6, 2008 11:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Critic,
It is always so much fun when you are around. You do have the gift of garb!
May 6, 2008 11:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Case in point, beckylee.
May 7, 2008 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Classless would be taking a piss on someone who just lost the goal of their lifetime ....... like you just did to Hillary Clinton .... nice pic btw.
May 8, 2008 2:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
The door is closed, the light is out, the butter is getting hard...say g'nite Billary!
May 6, 2008 9:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Extra points for the Chick Hearn reference!
R.I.P. Chickie Baby!
May 6, 2008 9:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
We all know its over!
May 6, 2008 9:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, HRC wants to poison the victory. Only reason I can find for her to run all the GOP talking points for McCain. He's at least honorable enough not to use the smears...
May 6, 2008 9:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
oh don't worry gramps'll have plenty of folks working overtime spreading those smears so that he can "denounce" their tactics later.
May 6, 2008 10:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
::does a virtual victory dance::
May 6, 2008 9:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't concede IN yet!
May 6, 2008 9:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Some earlier post described that HRC would need more than 58% to win more than a 1 delegate advantage in IN. Meanwhile, BO almost certainly got more delegates in NC. So even if she wins, she didn't...there's also not enough popular vote to make a diff there either. And winning a bright RED state which will never break her way in the fall is pointless...so it really doesn't matter as long as it is close.
May 6, 2008 9:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
IN is a six point game with under a quarter reporting from Monroe County (Bloomington/IU) and NOTHING reporting from Lake County (Gary/the far southeast side of Chicago). It could be a real squeaker yet:
http://www.politico.com/inncprimaries/map_in.html
May 6, 2008 9:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
FOUR!
May 6, 2008 9:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just ran the numbers, such as they are... Clinton camp would be lucky to win this by 3%.
May 6, 2008 10:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good call btw.
May 8, 2008 11:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
HRC will drop out before the May 13th primary. There is no more reason for her to go on. Tonight was her last chance and it didnt happen.
May 6, 2008 9:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wishful thinking, she wants to poison the win for BO...maybe make her veep just to shut her up? Yuck!
May 6, 2008 9:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
being mccain's veep might be a better option for her. since so many of her supporters just want a woman on the ticket, maybe they'd follow the R to victory.
paired with Obama, she'd just bring her negatives and drag him down.
May 6, 2008 10:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sad but true.
May 6, 2008 10:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
No way - after today, she'll be even more fired up. In KY and WV, she'll score even bigger wins than Obama today in NC. It will mean nothing, though, because Obama will clean up in SD, MT and OR.
In the meantime, expect a constant bleed of supers to Obama. It will be over on 5/20, even if HRC is still shrieking.
May 6, 2008 9:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama trading +5 at Intrade.
May 6, 2008 9:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is going to get 98 delegates tonight. Maybe more.
May 6, 2008 9:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank You North Carolina!
May 6, 2008 9:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Finally. I'm so glad. That is more than feasible, and not too far away. Way to go Barack, let's reunite this party.
May 6, 2008 9:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Looks like Gravel and no preference will get about 20,00 votes in NC:
Rural counties yet to be counted:
http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/NC/1875/3528/en/summary.html
Indiana is a Clinton win.
Looks like a split in delegates.
May 6, 2008 9:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
A ~15pt spread in NC and a ~5pt spread in IN does not equal a split in delegates.
May 6, 2008 9:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Looks like a split in delegates."
..shut the fuck up jackass.
May 6, 2008 9:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
go fuck yourself.
May 6, 2008 10:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
A split in the sense that they're both getting delegates, but Obama's got a bigger margin of victory in the bigger state.
May 6, 2008 9:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
You really are an dumb fuck.
May 6, 2008 9:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nope. Obama +10 in delegates, and plus 200k in the meaningless popular vote. The math is really bad in Indiana for Clinton, because there are a lot of districts with an even number of delegates. Sorry.
May 6, 2008 9:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
The split in delegates should be about +15 for Obama.
For HRC to win, the gap has to narrow, not widen.
May 6, 2008 9:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Looks like a big delegate pickup for Obama, alright! Probably a good 20 for the night, I suspect... plus all those superdels!
May 6, 2008 10:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Alright bring it home to Oregon. I don't know about WV, but Obama will probably win Oregon by double digits.
Note to candidates: drinking a Bud and a shot instead of a local beer (i.e. a good beer) is actually a faux pas around here.
May 6, 2008 9:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
FOUR POINTS IN INDIANA!
May 6, 2008 9:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Esp. Pabst...he drank a Pabst...I would sooner drain a crankcase and drink what I strain through sweaty socks. Pabst!
May 6, 2008 9:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Them's fighting words for this Milwaukee boy...
May 6, 2008 9:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't even let that comment stand for more than a few seconds. I hate Pabst. I'm a huge beer elitist.
May 6, 2008 9:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
BUAWAHAHAHAHAHA!
I knew it!
May 6, 2008 9:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed, some locally brewed barley pops are the way to go if you want some mojo with the local crowd.
From Bridgeport IPAs, to McFood's Terminal Gravtiy's... we like real brews here.
May 6, 2008 9:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
True that. I'd love to go to the Horse Brass and have a pint of their hoppiest IPA with Obama.
May 6, 2008 9:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
No kidding. Think I'll go grab a brew now!
As my two year old said out of the blue this morning:
"Go-go-bama!"
May 6, 2008 9:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Elitist!
May 6, 2008 10:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mmmmm. I want to go to Oregon just for the beer.
May 6, 2008 9:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not to sound elitist, but our wine's are world-class as well.. our Pinot Noir's are some of the best on the planet.
May 6, 2008 9:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mmm. I do like me some pinot, too. Yes, I am an elitist, and I do need to visit Oregon.
May 6, 2008 10:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Add in some of the best cheese (Tillamook has some is world class as well) and you have some real eltist goodies to sip and gnosh on here in our state.
May 6, 2008 10:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I happen to be a rare goat. Native to Hood River.
May 6, 2008 10:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Your cannabis is legendary as well.
May 6, 2008 11:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well on small push from my state which will deliver the coup de grâce is in the mail as I type.. I sent in my Oregon ballot yesterday morning... Obama, Merkley, Kroger, Walker
May 6, 2008 9:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh... and Wu as my incumbent Dem Congressional critter as well (which went without saying).
May 6, 2008 9:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
52-48!
May 6, 2008 9:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Down to 4pts in IN, many votes to be counted...
May 6, 2008 9:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great Speech! Really making the connect with his life and core values of the middle class.
May 6, 2008 9:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
"THIS IS THE TIME TO END IT!" Sen Barak Obama
May 6, 2008 9:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
He just nailed the last couple minutes of his speech!
May 6, 2008 9:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Down to
May 6, 2008 9:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let's have a Missouri Part II
May 6, 2008 9:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm getting little tingles....
but don't want to think it yet.
May 6, 2008 9:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
We will end it by telling the truth!
May 6, 2008 9:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Okay - Obama is 14 back SDs. How many days until he overtakes the lead?
I'm going with 2.
May 6, 2008 9:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey gotalife:
Wasn't your great... gal supposed to win both states by double digits?
Get a life.
May 6, 2008 9:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Checkmate.
May 6, 2008 9:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's unveiling some great new rhetoric
May 6, 2008 9:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
If he takes Indiana, someone get me some champagne. I'm loving every minute of this.
May 6, 2008 9:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Man, talk about an egomanic. Why doesn't the middle class vote for him? I don't want him doing me any favors. He's starting to sound like a preacher or something.
May 6, 2008 9:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Anyone else notice this trend, check out the cnn county maps if you want a look. Hillary wins in all the small rural communities but obama wins in the cities. Reminds me so much of those GWB maps showing county by county breakdowns of Bush V Kerry. Bush got all the rural towns, and Kerry got the cities.
Don't the dems need to win in the cities to have a chance in november, and wouldn't that make Barack the more electable candidate?
May 6, 2008 9:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
When the Strangelove Static dies down, Obama has plenty of time to earn their votes.
May 6, 2008 9:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
You might want to look at the states map; Obama has taken many rural areas. He hasn't done well in the rural parts of the old Northwest and the border states, but he has cleaned up in the Prarie, the Rockies, and the New England hills.
May 6, 2008 9:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Huh?
Obama cleaned Clinton's clock in Washington state (+37%), and Idaho (+62) and will blow her away here in Oregon.
May 6, 2008 9:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Old" Northwest - Indiana, Ohio...
The sort of Eastern Midwest. Don't know what else to call it.
Excepting, of course, Illinois.
May 6, 2008 10:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Damn....that was the Obama from Feb/March...but with just enough new stuff.
May 6, 2008 9:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Other than a handful of small counties in IN, all of HRC's are in. The ones left - the big Obama areas. Gary hasn't put in a single precinct yet and that is Chicago East.
On the other hand NC is tightening a bit but still looks like a 15pt + win.
GoBama!
Yes We Can!!!
ps Yeah, his speech started off a little shakey but he finished with a bang!
May 6, 2008 9:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Holy shit. Obama should crush her in Gary.
May 6, 2008 9:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think tonight might be the last game of the regular season. Bring on McSame!
May 6, 2008 9:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Down below 40k now.
May 6, 2008 9:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
May does not count. Only April counts.
May 6, 2008 9:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
May 6, 2008 9:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I really enjoy Sen. Clinton's contributions to the comments here at TPM. The flattering picture is inspiring as well.
May 6, 2008 9:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
fuck you.
May 6, 2008 10:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Charming.
May 6, 2008 10:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
HuffPo must be down. The riffraff are scattering.
May 6, 2008 10:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
OK - That's funny. :-)
May 6, 2008 9:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah! Especially with that avatar.
May 6, 2008 9:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
WOWEE!
IN is by NO MEANS a done deal. He only needs 55% of the remaining vote in his known strongholds to win.
May 6, 2008 9:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's not entirely accurate. He needs 55% of the remaining vote, and a lot of the remaining vote is in his known strongholds.
But not all of the remaining vote is in his strongholds. Some of it's in SE Indiana, which is probable Clinton country.
He probably needs more than 55% in his remaining strongholds to get 55% in the remaining vote.
That said... GO OBAMA!
May 6, 2008 9:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Whatever happened to the day when you could challenge someone to a duel?"
May 6, 2008 9:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS FREAKING HUGE!!
Yes!
Yes!
Yes!
Yes!
I can't believe he's gonna be this close in IN!
Her arguments are done!
May 6, 2008 9:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Clinton has closed to 14% in NC, but the pop. vote margin has stayed steady at 150k.
May 6, 2008 9:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I still think that's going to turn the other direction, but let's wait and see.
May 6, 2008 9:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
IN lead down to 32k.
May 6, 2008 9:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
And that is STILL with ZERO reporting from Lake county (Gary southside edge of the Chicago metro) yet.
May 6, 2008 9:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
some quick calculations:
Lake has a population of about 485K. If it's strongly favored to Obama (is it?) and if voter turnout is 21%, and Obama takes it by about 20%, then Obama gains 20K there.
Whether Obama will do that well or better in Lake, I don't know.
May 6, 2008 11:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
The MSM is rewriting the narrative. I have heard the phrase "reversal of fortunes" used a few times now.
May 6, 2008 9:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
He seems to have won over Russert.
May 6, 2008 9:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
We should find out tomorrow how much more money Hillary loaned her campaign. She's fucked.
May 6, 2008 9:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't wait. This is the biggest threat to her campaign. Other than Obama.
May 6, 2008 9:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Russert calling Indiana a virtual tie.
Love it.
May 6, 2008 9:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is going to be very close. SenatorObama needs around an 18,000 margin from lake county to draw even with her. It looks like that might be hard to attain. Hillary may just squeak by with around 50.8% of the vote. That does nothing for her.
May 6, 2008 9:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
OMG, I just got home (we had a big concert tonite - sang Carmina Burana) and I am delirious with joy! Could it be that the good people of NC and Indiana are going to shut this down? It's almost 10PM and it's still too close to call? I'm watching MSNBC and they're all talking about this thing as if it's over for her. Glory be - Carmina Burana and a blowout in NC in one night - it's too much to bear!!!!! ;)
May 6, 2008 9:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
O - I LOVE the Carmina Burana -
can you believe this? He might still win in IN~~~~
May 6, 2008 9:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have the music! Sang it once (Tenor II), music you feel more than hear...
May 6, 2008 10:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Its the best night of television in recent memory. They're finally talking about it being over!
May 6, 2008 9:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Obama can pull off Lake County 2-1, he's got this.
May 6, 2008 9:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Gary, Indiana is in Lake County - population 97,000 and 84% African"
May 6, 2008 9:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Borrowed from middlenamesareseriousbusiness
May 6, 2008 9:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lake county has (had) a population of 484,564 in 2000.
May 6, 2008 10:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
He needs about a 38k - 40k margin there to win the state.
May 6, 2008 9:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great day for Obama. Still waiting to hear from Gary, IN. . . . Great day no matter what. It's time for Hil to put party and country before personal ambition.
May 6, 2008 9:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tonight will go down as the end of her....The money dries up after tonight
NC = Woodshed
Indiana is still out
The talking heads are saying "game changer"
Even Pat Buchanan cant defend her
The champagne is going into the fridge tonight for Hill's concession speech
May 6, 2008 9:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh my god.
I can't even begin to imagine the sense of complete euphoria that'll overcome me watching her concede defeat. Holy shit...
May 6, 2008 9:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think I'll puke....then drink then puke some more to purge the system
May 6, 2008 10:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Indeed. The MSM is writing her obit.
May 6, 2008 10:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lanny Davis (HRC campaing manager) on CNN
May 6, 2008 9:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah good, I have MSNBC on. Lanny is one of the few people who can make me glad I am hearing Tim Russert.
Please tell me he is crying like a baby...
I have sympathy for the rest of her league (including HRC) but not him (or Carville).
May 6, 2008 10:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lanny Davis. Is he really that dumb or is it just an act?
And shouldn't he be thrown out of the Democratic party for all his shilling for Lieberman?
May 6, 2008 11:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Watching Indiana is driving me crazy! About 35,000 differenc? He has a chance. I can't take this. I need a drink! Where's the Crown Royal?
May 6, 2008 9:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary Bogarted it.
May 6, 2008 10:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lake County is about 500,000 population - not just Gary. The Party Chair told the press (the Post-Tribune in NW Indiana) that he has seen precinct results that say Obama in a landslide in Lake.
May 6, 2008 9:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm going to pass out.
May 6, 2008 10:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ground game baby.
Us IL Obamanites have been crawling all over IN but most especially in the northeast I94 corridor.
May 6, 2008 10:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lanny Davis looks like he just saw a ghost.
May 6, 2008 9:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Really? I likes it.
May 6, 2008 10:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary will be speaking soon:
I have the inside scoop on what she will say:
In a Nutshell:
Screw you Indiana and North Carolina. You did nothing for me, and therefore I have decided to obliterate your gas tax holiday.
May 6, 2008 10:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL
May 6, 2008 10:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Those people are shit anyways.
May 6, 2008 10:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
If she cries, I will scream...listen for it...
May 6, 2008 10:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Greg, why did you move this blog entry above the newer one on Obama's speech?
May 6, 2008 10:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
It doesn't even matter if he wins. This is it folks!
He withstood it all! The kitchen sink is broken!
May 6, 2008 10:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary is going to speak. She must be afraid to wait till all the votes are in.
May 6, 2008 10:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
"...and we are all running to paradise."
it's a damn good night.
May 6, 2008 10:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pandering and Pantsuits and Pansys don't work.
New Politics baby!
May 6, 2008 10:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Run away from Hillary congressional super delegates. Save yourselves. Run for your political lives. Hillary will give you Broke Cooties!
May 6, 2008 10:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
New argument for Hillary, which is hereby provided on credit:
When Obama pre-conceded Indiana, the effect was to give her the whole state, including all his delegates, and they should stop counting the votes!
When they abandoned a reasonableness constraint, I realized I could play this game!
May 6, 2008 10:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
But but but but - What about the popular vote! You can't just ignore The People.
My god! Our democracy will crumble - this is the primary - all votes must count dammit!
May 6, 2008 10:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Clinton camp just woke up and they are now realizing that their attempt to get the nomination was just a dream.
May 6, 2008 10:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Timmy is all but singing the party's over.
May 6, 2008 10:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Breaking:
Goatshite has filed for a legal separation from his inflatable Hillary doll.
May 6, 2008 10:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh yeah, and Rush: North Carolina's planning on their own Operation Chaos in November.
May 6, 2008 10:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lanny Davis is gonna cry.
May 6, 2008 10:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
O O tell me when the first tear slides down Lanny's face.
May 6, 2008 10:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good lord, Lanny Davis is a craven, pathetic human being.
May 6, 2008 10:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
kos says Lake County won't report until 11 PM EDT.
May 6, 2008 10:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh Good Lord!! It is going to be another HOUR before Lake county has results.
Thats okay, lets hope it is worth waiting for - especially if I get to see Lanny cry.
May 6, 2008 10:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
What Ein said.
May 6, 2008 10:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Another hour? Okay, time to shower.
May 6, 2008 10:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
The primary is over.
On to McCain.
May 6, 2008 10:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
HORSESHIT
May 6, 2008 10:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
O dear - has Greg lost his mind again?
May 6, 2008 10:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Another hour? I might be dead by then.
sheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeit!
That's probably good news, though.
May 6, 2008 10:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know how you feel. I think I have to go do something completely unrelated to computers and TV.
May 6, 2008 10:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
No she can't! No she can't!
May 6, 2008 10:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
All the Obama supporters with vitriol in their comments, please take the high road. It is what the Obama campaign is all about. They way you are behaving at the moment is like a follower of Gandhi or King practicing non-violent protest violently.
Please allow the American people the audacity to hope for better discourse.
May 6, 2008 10:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
How can you type with your face in there?
May 6, 2008 10:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
That is a hilarious statement, given your avatar!
May 6, 2008 10:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just saw Lanny Davis on CNN.
The others were laughing at him.
May 6, 2008 10:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sure whatever came out of his mouth tonight was pure gold.
May 6, 2008 10:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whats the gist of what he said?
May 6, 2008 10:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't remember exactly what he said, but to get the gist of it, cue up the movie Little Big Man to the Custer at Little Big Horn scene.
Or Monty Python's Holy Grail to the "Merely a flesh wound" scene.
May 6, 2008 10:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama needs a massive win in Lake County, but maybe the late reporting means there's a lot of votes there to be had.
May 6, 2008 10:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Its all down to Lake County!
May 6, 2008 10:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
As goes Lake County, so goes the nation.
May 6, 2008 10:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Porter and LaPorte are going for Hillary. That is killing Obama's chance to overtake her. Lake is just not big enough to make up the entire margin. Indianapolis has only about 5% still out, so that will not give him much more help.
Looks like he will fall just short. All those voters that were purged may have been the difference. A huge portion of them were from the Lake county rolls.
May 6, 2008 10:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lanny bashes the CNN talking heads.
Too funny, CNN is a joke like MSNBC.
Fox News is beating them but CBS called it first.
Clinton won most of Indiana and with gop rules she would be the nominee. Obama thought he was going to win it.
This whole dem process is ridiculous.
Gravel and no preference got 30,000 votes in NC.
Wow.
May 6, 2008 10:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe she should run for the GOP nomination next time, since the GOP rules favor her.
May 6, 2008 10:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Seems like Hillary would have fared better as a Republican all around.
May 6, 2008 10:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's a thought, Sparky - why don't you and the senator trot right over and join right up with the Republicans.
Suits me.
May 6, 2008 10:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Goatshite. I hear that you have filed for a legal separation from your inflatable Hillary Doll. Don't be a bastard, and take scissor to her pandersuit, before you throw them out on the driveway.
May 6, 2008 10:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Stop whining.
May 6, 2008 10:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just sad...
May 6, 2008 10:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just sad...
May 6, 2008 10:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are really shamless.
May 6, 2008 10:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
with gop rules she would be the nominee
And if football were baseball...
You and your candidate are welcome to (finally, officially) change party affiliation if that's your only remaining argument, friend. God knows you've been campaigning like a republican, so I can understand why you find that, eh, compelling. Give it up. And come join the winning team. We'd be happy to have you. Assuming you really want to beat McCain in the fall.
May 6, 2008 10:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Her lead just dropped to 19,000 with 9% to go. Wanna place a friendly wager?
May 6, 2008 11:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Popular vote margin is up to 175k in NC, percentage steady at 14%.
May 6, 2008 10:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's all over but the cryin'
...which we should be seeing shortly...
May 6, 2008 10:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey - the fact that it was this close is miraculous if he doesn't win.
I'm thrilled.
May 6, 2008 10:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now saying midnight for Lake County.
May 6, 2008 10:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
MSNBC is now saying Lake County won't be reported til midnight,
May 6, 2008 10:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I literally have tears running down my face. This is actually happening. A landslide in NC, and a barnburner in Indiana? After the worst 3 weeks of press in Obama's campaign? It's HEAVEN!
Even Pat Buchanan is saying "Really, at this point... what is the point of Hillary continuing?"
Heaven!
Heaven!
Heaven!
President Barack Obama!!!! Thank you God!!!!
May 6, 2008 10:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yah I'm happy too = I wish I was as happy as you are, though.
LOL!
It's a great night fo sho.
May 6, 2008 10:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
One time my diaper poopy pattern looked like Tucker Carlson.
May 6, 2008 10:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think all diaper poopy patterns look like Tucker Carlson.
;)
May 6, 2008 10:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Zogby nailed it in NC(BO +14), and they may get IN (BO +2).
May 6, 2008 10:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
When is Hillary ever going to speak? I can't WAIT to hear her spin.
May 6, 2008 10:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Spin? I am not spinning. I am merely stating the facts that I am winning the delegate count, the popular vote, the number of states won, and that Senator Obama is a secret Muslim.
May 6, 2008 10:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Your head's spinning - from the a$$ whoopin' you're gettin' tonight.
And you've earned it.
May 6, 2008 10:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
She'll wait until Lake County, because she could still lose.
May 6, 2008 10:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
GotNOlife,
Don't worry you'll still have a chance to vote for Senator Clinton in November . . .
May 6, 2008 10:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lanny is back on CNN
May 6, 2008 10:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh god, Lanny Davis just pulled out "why isn't he closing the deal?"
May 6, 2008 10:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Merely a flesh wound!"
May 6, 2008 10:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Come back here! I'll bite your legs off!"
May 6, 2008 10:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
O no he diiiiiiiiin't!
I hope they laughed at him-
May 6, 2008 10:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
He also touted poll results and conversations he's had with Republican friends.
May 6, 2008 10:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lol. No kidding. Talk about reverse psychology.
Why didn't Hillary close the deal months ago?
Her once enormous lead evaporated across every demographic including white women, men and blacks.
Her last bastion of support is white rural "Democrats" who actually vote Republican in the GE.
May 6, 2008 10:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama needs 57% in Lake County to pull off the win. I doubt he'll get that, but he'll close the gap even further.
May 6, 2008 10:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't want to raise hopes but he was running 60/40 at around 8 pm, according to CNN, which for reasons I don't understand, is more reliable than the IN board of elections site.
May 6, 2008 10:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
They're not going to release the numbers until the 11,000 absebtee ballots are counted in Lake County.
It has been said that could held until around midnight...
May 6, 2008 10:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
As a long time political junkie, here is the message that I see that the voters send tonight:
WE ARE NOT READY FOR A WOMAN PRESIDENT WHO HAS THREE TESTICLES!
May 6, 2008 10:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ok that does it - I'm in love!
that's the comment of the entire election cycle.
May 6, 2008 10:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Call me 'ole fashioned, but I'm not sure I can handle a woman president with even ONE testicle ... three is just creepy.
May 6, 2008 10:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Shush! What's that sound?
That's the sound of Team HRC collectively crying into their lattes!
So sad!
May 6, 2008 10:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've got to tell you my Newcastle tastes pretty sweet tonight!
May 6, 2008 10:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
It may just be MSNBC but they are talking about "serious conversations" being required in HRC's camp tomorrow. That's always a bad sign.
May 6, 2008 10:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lanny Davis is a clown.
May 6, 2008 10:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Correction: Lanny Davis is an assclown.
May 6, 2008 10:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's All O-VER!
Boom, boom, boom, boom, boom!
MSNBC's Brian Williams said "Hillary was wistful, when seen by Andrea Mitchell."
May 6, 2008 10:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
altogether now:
AWWWWWwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww!!!!!!!!!!!!
Well, she'll get over that wistful as soon as she hits the bar.
May 6, 2008 10:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wistful...uhoh, does that mean she's gonna cry?
May 6, 2008 10:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Okee- Cut out the shouting and the inapropriate language. Really...you must be above all that, or at least give it a try!
May 6, 2008 10:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
CNN has just too many damn people in that studio...it's like watching the NFL on NBC.
May 6, 2008 10:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
"We've broken the tie" - Hillary. Dear Lord.
May 6, 2008 10:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I lasted about 15 seconds into that speech.
May 6, 2008 10:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, looks like someone doesn't believe in revising a speech. Time for her to plug her website...
May 6, 2008 10:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
HRC: "its full speed on to the white house"
BULL
May 6, 2008 10:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Not long ago, my opponent made a prediction: He said I would win Pennsylvania, he would win North Carolina, and Indiana would be the tiebreaker. Well tonight, we have broken the tie, and it's full speed to the White House!"
She is utterly shameless.
May 6, 2008 10:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Clinton is unbelievable. No congrats to Obama.
May 6, 2008 10:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
What a piece of shit. She doesn't care about the party or winning in November. She is the worst of the worst.
May 6, 2008 10:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Note to Greg:
The Obama campaign is not bluffing about May 20 being D-Day
Give him 7 of the 28 in West Virginia and 13 of the 51 in Kentucky. Then he only needs 18 or 19 of Oregon's 52.
What's going to stop that from happening?
Nothing anyone can name. Harold Ickes surely has fantasies, but if he had anything as strong as a rumor, he'd be on the networks naming it now.
Yes, May 20 he has a majority of all the pledged delegates.
May 6, 2008 10:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow! I can visualize it now :-)
I wonder how the TPMaholics Bicoast (CA/NY)parties are doing tonight. I don't see any post by Genghis.
Hey, Anybody home??? Hope you're having fun!!!
May 6, 2008 11:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Has she forgotten her little prediction?
"This primary election on Tuesday is a game changer. This is going to make a huge difference in what happens going forward. The entire country -- probably even a lot of the world -- is looking to see what North Carolina decides," - Senator Hillary Clinton."
May 6, 2008 10:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
What is on the forehead of the lady behind and to the left of Clinton?
May 6, 2008 10:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Frosting?
May 6, 2008 10:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
"On to the White House" The woman is delusional. Too much testosterone from her three testicles is probably warping her mind.
May 6, 2008 10:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's going to be an Ambien night for Clinton.
May 6, 2008 10:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary sounds disappointed. she knows its over.
May 6, 2008 10:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah ... She's struggling.
Not striking exactly the wrong notes here either.
May 6, 2008 10:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Clinton is unbelievable. She did not come from way behind in Indiana. Does she think we're that stupid? Or is she truly delusional? At least she sent congrats to Obama.
She's begging for more money now!
May 6, 2008 10:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
May 6, 2008 10:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am happy for the Democratic Party and people who live in this country. "People who live in this country" is my way of saying everybody no matter their citizenship status. I'm happy for EVERYBODY.
May 6, 2008 10:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just asking for more money in her speech....
No class
May 6, 2008 10:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
No cash, either. Will be hard to pick up the phone and ask for money.
May 6, 2008 10:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Out spent again, Obama thought he would win Indiana but the fighter wins again.
The fight goes on and anything can happen.
May 6, 2008 10:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
haha!
May 6, 2008 10:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Then send her money you desperate fuckwit.
May 6, 2008 10:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wonder how much she loaned her campaign this time: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/06/new-hillary-clinton-loan_n_100492.html
Ouch.
May 6, 2008 10:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dude ... she's working towards a concession here.
May 6, 2008 10:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually its over. Sorry. Can't have a fight when one guy is on the mat.
May 6, 2008 10:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
gotalife
I respect your grit. Hill took it in the 'nuts' hard tonight and you have braved a landslide of shit from us Obama folks. I have no respect for your candidate but I'll give you some cred in the face of overwhelming odds. I hope you'll support BO when the invevitble happens.
May 6, 2008 10:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't kid yourself. He's not really a Hillary supporter. He's just a kook.
Nolife is either a Republican troll such as a Freeper or LGF'er, or just a typical troll.
May 9, 2008 12:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Great Gas Tax Pander was a great idea, huh? How many percentage points was that good for?
Did the Clinton campaign figure on the Republican crossover votes to give them a win? If they still pull it out, they can thank Rush.
Murdoch, Scaife, Drudge, and now Limbaugh. Maybe Hillary could get her newfound fascist friends to pay off her debts.
May 7, 2008 12:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
She's still pandering. Ugh
May 6, 2008 10:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
If superdelegates had any brains, they would ALL come out tomorrow and end this insanity. Of course, she'll bitch and moan like she always does all the way through November (and beyond). She is the worst of the worst of the worst!
And yes, HRC, those soldiers are in harm's way b/c of people like you.
May 6, 2008 10:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Genghis must be having one hell of a party tonight, eh?
May 6, 2008 10:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Was he live blogging tonight?
May 6, 2008 10:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think so. He was meeting up with folks at a place in NYC, I believe to watch the returns.
May 6, 2008 10:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I was supposed to join him but realized tonight was going to be one to savor and I wanted to follow it all without the distraction of a lot of loud drinkers who weren't really interested -- this despite the fact that Genghis himself is the coolest possible guy.
May 6, 2008 11:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are there really only about 400 people there?
That's all the cameras are showing.
May 6, 2008 10:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh boy. If she keeps this going for 10 more minutes Lake county could come in while she is speaking and move this thing over to the Obama win collum. That would be funny as hell.
May 6, 2008 10:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Someone should really check on Matthew Weaver...
May 6, 2008 10:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's been a lifelong gun owner, after all...
May 6, 2008 10:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now Red States count?!?!?
May 6, 2008 10:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yea I noticed this one myself.
May 6, 2008 10:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well. It's been a blast. Great night for Obama. The end is nigh.
Good night, everyone.
May 6, 2008 11:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just opened my second PBR of the night.
But I am definitely a bourbon elitist.
May 6, 2008 11:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gary Indiana mayor says 'overwhelming for Obama'
Stay tuned
May 6, 2008 11:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
But but but Hillary just declared victory, I heard her!
But but but Bill has an office in Harlem!
She is without honor for not congratulating Obama. Utterly without class. And Bubbuh looked like he messed himself, distracted, not clapping at the right times.
Zogby was onto something.
May 6, 2008 11:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Am I the only one who thinks CNN GOP Analyst Castellanos looks like a white Al Sharpton?
May 6, 2008 11:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Most fun comment thread on TPM evah! Very fun - but lay off the Clinton folks. "Be the change you seek and all." That said. Really funny comments!!
May 6, 2008 11:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
hillary is the new lieberman.
May 6, 2008 11:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lake county, 28% reporting.
Breaking down 75% to 25% for obama.
This could do it
May 6, 2008 11:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
That was Gary's number.
May 6, 2008 11:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love MSNBC but CNN has I think the best interactive touch screen map that they use continually to show real time results by pointing to the counties and also show how it might play out in the GE...cool! Looks like if Obama's margin in Lake Cty holds for remainder of that county results he will win Iniania...WOW!
May 7, 2008 12:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary won Hammond according to their Mayor. It's over. It's not going to get any closer tonight, and might grow back up to four.
Good night folks.
May 7, 2008 12:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
IT'S. OVER.
May 7, 2008 2:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
"hillary is the new lieberman."
Black is the new President.
May 7, 2008 9:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, not only is Oregon "Beervana" for craft beer, but also for whatever reason Pabst, which we usually call "PBR," is also very popular last few years in Portland. I have read that Portland is among the top 2 or 3 markets for PBR in the U.S. So try it, maybe you'll like it.
That said, candidates would certainly do better here to drink local beer and wine. Welcome candidates!
May 7, 2008 10:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
1,626 is not 2025. Far from it.
Unless they seat FL and MI as they voted or change the rules, Obama can not have the number needed by the convention.
And if Clinton will not concede, a likely scenario, rules will need to be changed. That is when the brokering begins.
Strange things can still happen between now and then.
May 7, 2008 1:04 PM | Reply | Permalink