Obama Camp Says They're 150 Delegates From Clinching Nomination
Here's a quick roundup of today's super-delegate action:
Barack Obama has made more progress today on the super-delegate front, extending his newfound super-del lead over Hillary Clinton with four new endorsements versus none for her.
The Obama camp announced the endorsements of Rep. Tom Allen of Maine, the party's candidate for U.S. Senate, Sen. Daniel Akaka of Hawaii, DNC member Dolly Strazar of Hawaii, and Idaho state party chair Keith Roark.
According to the Obama camp's numbers, he is now exactly 150 delegates away from clinching the nomination.
Advertisement
THIS
May 12, 2008 5:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
IS
May 12, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
EXCELLENT
May 12, 2008 5:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
EXCELLENT
May 12, 2008 5:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
NEWS!!
May 12, 2008 5:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
FOR
May 12, 2008 5:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
zzzzzzzz
May 12, 2008 6:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
FOR HILLARY!!!
May 12, 2008 5:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
You unleashed a monster, idiotic!
May 12, 2008 6:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's
May 13, 2008 2:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
What
May 13, 2008 2:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
She
May 13, 2008 2:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hooray!
May 12, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Meanwhile:
It is starting to look like The Republicans Convention may be the one that ends up being one of The Big Fat Pillbilly's Nightmares.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/05/ronpaulgop.html
Extract:
Ron Paul's forces quietly plot GOP convention revolt against McCain
Virtually all the nation's political attention in recent weeks has focused on the compelling state-by-state presidential nomination struggle between two Democrats and the potential for party-splitting strife over there.
But in the mTexas Rep. Ron Paul and his libertarian-minded GOP backers are collecting delegates at the local level and planning a revolt against Sen. John McCain at the Republican National Convention in St. Paul in Septembereantime, quietly, largely under the radar of most people, the forces of Rep. Ron Paul have been organizing across the country to stage an embarrassing public revolt against Sen. John McCain when Republicans gather for their national convention in Minnesota at the beginning of September.
May 12, 2008 5:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
The police dogs will be chasing more libertarian protestors than liberals this time around.
May 12, 2008 5:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Do they have police dogs in Minnesota? I'm picturing big dopey Labs that jump up on people and lick their faces until they cry uncle?
May 12, 2008 7:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Heh. The Minneapolis and St Paul police forces have been, for 150 years, among the most corrupt and brutal in the country. They fly mostly under the radar of the big city folk, for some reason.... used to mostly consist of asphyxiating American Indians and the like, recently they've graduated to taser executions of the inebriated and otherwise defenseless. Minneapolis, historically, was more on the take from organized crime and whatnot, while St Paul was more a simple case of Irish Catholic immigrants (which includes my family) running the city and condoning beat downs of blacks as a public example.
May 12, 2008 9:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, now I see why the Republicans are having their convention there. They'll be right at home.
May 12, 2008 11:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Won't be the same without The Whizzinator on a boat.
May 13, 2008 2:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
It would be pretty funny if Ron Paul was able to force himself onto the McCain ticket.
May 12, 2008 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, how fun!
May 12, 2008 5:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
The "other" Operation Chaos.
May 12, 2008 5:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
According to the Obama camp's numbers, he is now exactly 150 delegates away from clinching the nomination..... that is why clinton is still in the race because he has not won the nomination.
I don't believe he will get those 150 delegates by May 20th like his camp is saying... because of hillary clinton's huge wins in west virgina, kentucky, puerto rico and possible oregon win....
Things are going to change starting tomorrow night.... go Hillary:)
May 12, 2008 5:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's that math and logic thing again isn't it?
What Obama has said was that he would clinch the lead in pledged delegates on that day -- and he will. He will get 10 or so out of WV, 20 or so out of KY and 30 or so out of OR. That is total - not net. So he will have gained ~60 delegates give or take.
He currently has 1591, that will give him 1650ish.
She currently has 1427 and will get another 70-75 or so by then giving her 1500ish.
for a difference of 150 delegates
there will only be 86 delegates in the entire remaining contests. PERIOD. 150 is more than 86.
Even with MI & FL fully seated, he will still be ahead by 150 delegates
Go to school. Learn something.
May 12, 2008 5:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
correction, typo- he will still be ahead by 100 delegates.
May 12, 2008 5:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
hmm, don't think Obama is planning on getting all 150 delegates in a week (although it IS possible).
By May 20, they WILL have a majority of the pledged delegates:
Obama: 1,592 pledged delegates. Majority: 1,627.
35 pledged delegates to go.
Then the Supers will really start coming!
May 12, 2008 5:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly so. I'm convinced the remaining Superdelegates are waiting for just that moment to start the avalanche.
May 12, 2008 7:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think he ever said he would clinch on May 20. I think he said that he would guarantee the majority of pledged delegates on May 20.
May 12, 2008 5:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
ummm...they never said they'd clinch the nomination by May 20. They said they'd clinch a majority of the pledged delegates on May 20. Reading is a skill.
May 12, 2008 5:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
You and the kid from West By God who sold his bike for Hillary are in for a big shocker coming soon.
May 12, 2008 6:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
So let me get this straight. You're saying he didn't say he'd clinch on May 20 but, instead, only said he'd have the majority of the pledged delegates by that date? Is that what you're saying?
May 12, 2008 7:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
And don't forget that super delegates can change there minds:)
May 12, 2008 5:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes. A couple of them have changed their minds. From Hillary to Obama, lol.
May 12, 2008 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wasn't it nine superdelegates that switched their minds from Clinton to Obama?
May 12, 2008 5:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
They don't count. They were unimportant delegates.
And... uh... They were Judases! Yeah, that's the ticket!
And besides, they weren't hard-working...
...or white,
LK
May 13, 2008 2:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
And thus we are treated to a real-life example of the oft-misunderstood adage "Hoping against Hope" with an astoundingly ironic twist. What a year.
May 12, 2008 5:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, they are just FLOCKING away from Obama in droves. I can hardly keep up with the number of them that have switched from Obama to Clinton over the last 2 months. You know because the supers are really anxious to overturn the will of the voters.
May 12, 2008 5:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
"There" minds are a terrible thing to have, or waste.
May 12, 2008 6:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Karl Rove on FOX, gives Senator Obama campaign advise.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/12/us/politics/12rove.html?_r=1&sq=
Senator Obama's press secretary's response:
“Wouldn’t taking his advice be a little like getting health tips from a funeral home director?” said Mr. Obama’s press secretary, Bill Burton.
May 12, 2008 5:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Haha, good one. I really am liking his campaign team.
May 12, 2008 5:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I have been pretty impressed with their GE stuff so far. I think they have really been much more restrained in the primaries than we realized.
They also likened Bob Novak's column to toilet paper.
May 12, 2008 5:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep, expect a totally different and refreshing campaign now.
May 12, 2008 6:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Translation:
Remaining: 456 Delegates
Obama to Win: 150 Delegates, 33%
or 1 in 3
May 12, 2008 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary Clinton '08 - According to Real Clear Politics, Obama is up by twelve points in Oregon.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_upcoming_states.html
May 12, 2008 5:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oregon will more or less cancel out Kentucky. Montana and South Dakota will more or less cancel out West Virginia. A month from now we'll be more or less in the same place we are now in pledged delegates. Game. Set. Match.
Bring on the Republicans.
May 12, 2008 6:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama and his superdelegates are now engaged in a desperate end run game to prevent Sen Clinton from winning the presidential nomination at the conclusion of the presidential nomination process in June.
This end run maneuvring was the reason for the superdelegate endorsements on Friday, Saturday, and Monday, and this subversion will continue in repudiation of the Democratic nomination process.
Obama and his superdelegates have chosen to take the Democratic Party on the path to a train wreck in November. This is entrenching votes for McCain. Obama will crash and burn in November if he swipes the nomination.
"OBAMA BACKERS MAKE THEIR THREAT" - Executive Intelligence Review - "Those who are attempting to shut down the Clinton campaign and control this Presidential election have no allegiance to (the) Democratic Party, or to the United States."
http://www.larouchepub.com/other/2008/3520threat_to_clinton.html
May 12, 2008 6:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
And really, what more authoritative source could you find than Lyndon LaRouche?
May 12, 2008 6:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Almost as credible as National Inquirer. So what's your point?
May 12, 2008 6:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, this is great news! LaRouche backs Hillary! Will Hillary reject and denounce LaRouche's support?!?!?
May 13, 2008 8:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
When you have the Larouchites on your side, you know you've got problems.
May 12, 2008 6:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
WOW, I never thought anyone could make Taylor Marsh look quasi-rational...
May 12, 2008 6:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now, now, no need to engage in hyperbole.
May 12, 2008 8:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
So why is it when super delegates back Clinton it is fine and dandy, but when they back Obama it is suddenly a conspiracy? Your arguement is absurd. What we are seeing IS the process. States hold primaries and caucuses to select pledged delegates and--as the Clinton campaign has said over and over and over--the supers have the freedom to back whomever they choose. The fact that they are backing the candidate who has won more pledged delegates and the popular vote is only logical.
May 12, 2008 6:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Somehow it doesn't surprise me that Hillary has the LaRouchie vote locked up.
May 12, 2008 6:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
"I don't believe he will get those 150 delegates by May 20th like his camp is saying... "
Actually, what his camp has been saying is that he will have the majority of the PLEDGED delegates by May 20 .... and that is almost a certainty. The number needed to guarantee having a majority (without considering MI and FL) is 1627.
Obama's current pledged delegates (MSNBC): 1590
*Very* conservatively give him:
WV 10 (of 28 - or 65/35 split for Clinton)
KY 18 (of 51 - or 63/35 split for Clinton)
OR 28 (of 52 - or 53/47 split for Obama)
By the end of 5/20, he would have 1647 delegates ... even if Clinton's victories in WV and KY are greater than any poll suggests and his victory in OR is less than anticipated.
(In contrast, Clinton currently has 1426 pledged delegates. So even if she won ALL of the delegates from WV, KY and OR (28 + 51 + 52 = 131), she would still have only 1557 at the end of the day -- less than Obama has right now.
When folks say there is no way around the math, there really is NO WAY around the math. Even MI and FL cannot make it work for her.
If you count those states, the number of pledged delegates a candidate would need to have a majority would be 1785.
Conservative estimates of the remaining primaries would give Obama:
PR 19 (of 55 or 65/35 split for Clinton)
MT 9 (of 16 or 55/45 split for Obama)
SD 8 (of 15 or 55/45 split for Obama)
would give him 1682 pledged delegates.
Then accept, for the sake of argument, Clinton's own proposal for seating MI and FL, which would result in Obama gaining:
MI 55 (Clinton would get 73 = 128)
FL 73 (Clinton would get 105 and others 7 = 185)
He would then have 1810 delegates, more than enough for a majority. (She would have only 1727 pledged delegates.)
Personally, I don't think MI and FL should be counted in that fashion (rules do mean something) BUT EVEN IF Clinton were to get *all* she would be asking for from the Credentials Committee, she still loses on pledged delegates. Decisively.
And pledged delegates are what the primaries are all about. Even so, she has also lost in the number of states carried, lost in the number of superdelegate endorsements, and is behind and projected to stay behind in popular vote.
It's over.
May 12, 2008 6:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
the dem nomination is almost over!
May 12, 2008 6:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Almost? Three farging months ago . . .
May 12, 2008 7:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lyndon LaCockRouche.
May 12, 2008 6:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
According to CNN's delegate toy . . .
Without breathing through the Flordigan huff-rag, If Hillary gets 70& of the pledged delegates in WV, 66% of them in Kentucky, 60% of Puerto Rico's, and half of Oregon, Montana and South Dakota (the latter three being pretty unlikely), Obama only needs 64 supers to clinch the nomination.
Hillary would need 200.
If he keeps rolling out supers at the same rate he has been, five or six a day, he clinches the nomination at about the time of the last primaries. Coincidence? I think not.
May 12, 2008 8:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is sort of like strolling to the finish line, ain't it?
May 12, 2008 8:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
.
May 12, 2008 8:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
While I don't generally feed trolls, your avi is really offensive - which is no doubt what you intended.
It must really chap-your-hide that a black man makes a ton more money than you, is a million times more famous, is a zillion times smarter than you will ever be and has a gazillion times more class than you ever will. Your life sucks and his doesn't and I couldn't be happier about it.
May 12, 2008 9:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm touched.
May 12, 2008 10:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I believe that fogu2 is finally admitting that Obama has "owned" him in the sense that Obama has demonstrated just how irrational fogu2's thinking is. It's am important first step for fogu2—admitting he has a problem.
May 13, 2008 7:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Looks like Obama drank your milkshake.
May 12, 2008 9:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
OK you Obamanoids....Find the nearest Clintonista, slap a big nasty wet one on em and sing along (Eric is MINE!)
PS - Chris Cilizza reports that SD vote counters from both camps tell him that there is substantial number of SuperDelegates who have warned Clinton to stop trashing Obama lest they come down on her like God's avenging angles
Otherwise they await the Day of Majority of SuperDelegates
May 12, 2008 10:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
do we get to see him club hillary to death with a bowling pin? that'd be a good way to respond to her challenge to have a bowl-off.
May 13, 2008 1:58 AM | Reply | Permalink