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North Carolina Race In Single Digits, Another Poll Finds
Yet another poll shows the North Carolina primary turning into a single-digit race. The latest numbers from Rasmussen, compared to their previous poll from three days ago:
Obama 49% (-2)
Clinton 40% (+3)
The internals show Obama winning black voters 74%-10%, while Clinton is ahead 58%-35% with whites. With Obama dogged by the Jeremiah Wright story, 43% believe he distanced himself from Wright out of genuine outrage, versus 40% who say he was politically motivated.
Meanwhile, a new Gallup national poll finds a 62%-30% majority of Democrats saying the long nomination battle is doing more harm than good for the party, contrary to the Clinton campaign' insistence that most Dems view it as a good thing.
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Yes! Clinton is gaining as Obama self-destructions. Primary too long? Good, time for Obama to quit next week. Especially if the trends continue and Clinton picks up IN and comes close in NC. If she pulls off a win in NC, which is remotely possible, Obama's fate is sealed. Otherwise, on to the next states...
Matthew
May 2, 2008 12:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
So what happens to those Super Delegates Clinton continues to bleed? Show us your math!
May 2, 2008 12:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, Matthew, just wait until Kantor's "shit" comments become public. Obama will win NC AND Indiana and this bullshit nightmare will be over and we can focus on McWar.
May 2, 2008 12:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Carol - due to Clinton Derangement Syndrome you've been duped into pushing the false Kantor story.
Atrios says:
"Okay, I think I've figured this out. The YouTube clip is crap. I was going to ignore it until Drudge posted it, but stupid me anyway.
...Anyway, dumb fake controversy. Apologies for even linking to it."
Looking for political dirt to prove that Hillary is a monster who will do anything and say anything in order to win, the Obama fan club is now saying anything and doing anything to smear Hillary.
This is what post-partisan hope and unity look like?
May 2, 2008 4:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
You and your fellow klan members would really love that, wouldn't you?
May 2, 2008 12:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Yes! Clinton is gaining as Obama self-destructions. Primary too long?"
Whats all the inbred celebrations about? Your candidate doesn't have a snowballs chance in Paris Hilton's crotch of becoming the nominee - all the clumsy fist pumping is just wasted energy..
May 2, 2008 12:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
You should be a comedian, you are so funny. Have you seen the delegate counts? She would need to win with 70% in both states to have a chance to win this nomination.
May 2, 2008 12:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama picks up another 100 delegates on Tuesday
New Magic Numbers 5/7
May 2, 2008 1:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think you meant "self-destructs".
BTW, when did nine become a single-digit again?
May 2, 2008 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
My thoughts, exactly! :D
May 2, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
If this race were conducted under Republican rules, North Carolina wouldn't matter.
May 2, 2008 12:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
If this race were conducted under Republican rules the candidates would be republicans
May 2, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
They loved ARG polls all last week and the week before. Now that it shows Obama up by 11, it isn't worth a mention here?
May 2, 2008 12:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wee, another poll. Good work, guys - keep posting the really important microtrend non-stories, especially if they favor Clinton (or show Obama losing ground). Boy, you're really going to get hounded today - I almost feel sorry for you (but not quite).
May 2, 2008 12:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
If this were Daily Kos, I'd recommend your comment for use of the word "Wee"
May 2, 2008 12:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOLOL! ;)
May 2, 2008 12:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's a lot of undecided - which makes me think some Obama supporters were put in the undecided column by events...but many of them will ultimately return.
May 2, 2008 12:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Greeegggg
Make a post about Kantorgate why don't ya?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sN_nQOHj__s
May 2, 2008 12:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whoops, sorry, this is Eric, not Greg.
May 2, 2008 12:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
And even if you remove the dubious "white ni****" line, you still have something pretty vitriolic.
But since this doesn't conform to the TPM-Clinton narrative, it won't get picked up. You'll just see more of Eric and Greg "reporting" on poll numbers. Yawn.
May 2, 2008 12:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
They'll do a post if I have to hound them on it all damn day.
May 2, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just read David Kurtz's latest post. No one can accuse him of being a free thinker. What an embarrasement.
May 2, 2008 12:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
obama was politically motivated? are these people really that stupid? if he was going to disown him out of political motivations, he would have done it two months ago when all this first started.
i seriously cannot believe how stupid some voters are.
May 2, 2008 12:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is a line the media created a couple days ago and is pushing like crazy. It's the second time TPM has referenced it today.
Someday if McCain is President, I hope all involved will look back at the creation and dissemination of the idea that Obama is "politically motivated" will feel as embarrassed as those few people who were willing to see their complicity in the Al Gore is a liar meme.
This is not something voters were saying, it's something pundits came up with. And now the polls reflect that invention. And now that it's in the polls, it's fact! Look how that works!
May 2, 2008 12:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
And you know what's so sad? The blogs are fully complicit in pushing this meme as well. It makes me very sad ...
May 2, 2008 12:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
...notice how the same wingnut bloggers and poundits who demanded Obama repudiate Wright are now pushing the "he threw his own preacher under the bus for political reasons" line.
HYPOCRITES!
May 2, 2008 12:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah the first time I saw the "threw the preacher under the bus" line I was speechless.
It's like that snake that eat its own tail.
Can you believe in a country where people must be adults to vote, in a country with free education and a pretty good literacy rate, in a country with a free press and free information, that our elections come down to phrases like "under the bus" and "invented the internet"?
May 2, 2008 12:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Though my own literacy rate is in question in the above post.
May 2, 2008 12:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ouroboros is the snake which eats its own tail.
Wheee! I knew a classical education would pay off some day.
May 2, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's what really has disappointed me so damn deeply.
I'm half speechless at this point.
and I don't care what Kantor says, I heard "white nigger" the second time, clearly.
May 2, 2008 12:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Isn't the significant fact from this poll that Obama is winning, and by 9 points, during the worst week of his candidacy? Who writes these headlines?
May 2, 2008 12:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Isn't the significant fact from this poll that Obama is winning, and by 9 points, during the worst week of his candidacy? Who writes these headlines?
May 2, 2008 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Of course not - that would mean that Greg and Eric would have to engage in some non-biased analysis instead of spin. Silly Greedo!! ;)
May 2, 2008 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nobody cares what you say ever since it was revealed that you shot at Han first.
May 2, 2008 12:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now that was doctored footage!
May 2, 2008 1:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know this poll is horseshit, but lets just say that Obama won NC by 9 ponts - don't you love how it would be characterized as "winning in single digits", when Hillary's win in Penn by the exact same margin was "winning in double digits".
May 2, 2008 12:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL when someone posted here the other day that Hilary's crew interpreted 9.2% as double digits...
Now there's some shameless spin.
May 2, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I am a Kool-Aid drunk Obamabot, so of course I would think this, but as far as I am concerned these polls are about as useful as the flurry of polls the weekend before PA showing PA narrowing to 5 or 3 or even Obama ahead by 3. Those Clinton supporters salivating at the thought of an NC upset will be in for the same disappointment as the Obama supporters who got excited about the same sort of outcome a week and a half ago. Obama will win NC by a comfortable, double digit margin.
May 2, 2008 12:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are very correct, the polls are all meaningless and outdated before they are even released. But, that said, they are great for conversation.
Matthew
May 2, 2008 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey Eric, why didnt you expand on the Zogby numbers? Didnt fit your agenda?
May 2, 2008 12:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
What I don't get is- Josh is a smart guy. He'd hire smart people. Smart people understand that this thing is done. Why would smart people keep pushing Clinton garbage? Click-throughs on the website? Ad revenue? Links? I really don't quite understand the pro-Clinton agenda here.
May 2, 2008 12:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
It works the same way that Vegas lays off points. If you have too much of a bet on one team, you give points to the other team to even out the wagering. This site has far more Obama backers than Hillary backers. In fact most of those who post in favor of Hillary are really just a cluster of inbred Aryan Nation Scumbags, who are just trying to stop a black man from gaining the nomination. That vermin infested dung heap will not vote for a woman in the fall.
TPM feels that it has more than enough Obama supporters coming to their site, so they are trying to attract more Hillary supporters.
Of course, if they go to far with their cynical enterprise tactics, then we Obama supporters can always destroy them with a complete boycott of their site. That would leave them to stew in the remaining dung heap of racist trolls that they have been catering too.
Here is something to ponder: If TPM is as progressive a site as they claim to be:
Name all the female, minority, and gay/lesbian members on their reporting staff!
May 2, 2008 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
This poll is an outlier. Period It woefully underestimates Black votes despite a showing that 39% of early voters are black.
May 2, 2008 12:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bill Clinton won the Democratic nomination on June 2nd, 1992. He was elected President five months later. And there are many people who remember the days when nominees were never chosen before the convention. The big reason for all the hand wringing over how long this is dragging on is because the Obama camp is pushing it. Before Texas and Ohio they were trying to get Hillary to quit. Before Pennsylvania they were trying to get Hillary to quit. They are less concerned about the Democrat's chances in November than they are about Obama's slow but steady decline. He hasn't won a major race since February, and a lot of bad things have been coming out. I call your attention to the graph displayed on this page of polling trends to from Polster.com.
May 2, 2008 12:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bullshit Otto - Obama won Texas.
You just lie.
May 2, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
"He hasn't won a major race since February, and a lot of bad things have been coming out."
..like utterly clumsy guilt-by-association smears. He will be our next president, especially considering that Bill Clinton became president, despite already being known as a serial adulterer. Talk about "bad things" coming out and still capturing the presidency.
May 2, 2008 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
You either weren't old enough to remember, or you don't know how to read history books. Clinton pretty much had everything wrapped up by SUPER TUESDAY. Sure, Brown was an annoyance, but he never had a chance in hell to take over Clinton's lead. It wasn't half as dirty as what the Clinton machine is trying to pull now.
People are trying to get HillBill to quit because the only way she can win is if the superdelegates overturn the will of the people. They are not going to do that- no matter what kind of fuzzy math her campaign spews.
May 2, 2008 12:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
but Otto, that was all BEFORE Kantorgate!
Wait until Monday...
May 2, 2008 1:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is the kind of half-truth that Hillary constantly tells. In 1992, the Iowa caucus was held in February. So, by 1992's schedule, the nomination should be tied up in a couple of days. Fingers crossed. Of course, Hillary will continue to ignore dictionaries and define a fighter as someone who refuses to accept reality and continue running for John McCain's running mate.
May 3, 2008 4:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cover the Kantor comments, and give equal time to polls, rather than cherry picking. Then I will give two shits about TPM again.
May 2, 2008 12:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
The poll states that he is winning AA 74%-10%. I'm assuming that means that 16% are undecided? Does anyone know what the last state was where Obama won only 74% of the AA vote?
May 2, 2008 12:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes well, all you have to do to take numbers to 100% is nominate Hillary - there will be close to 100% nonturnout in some precincts.
May 2, 2008 12:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't normally agree with a lot of the TPM slamming comments but I have to admit to being a bit puzzled by this whole episode with Kantar. While I don't believe it is overly newsworthy on its own, I think it is relevant in context of the coverage of Rev Wright. Which - incidently I didn't think was newsworthy either but as it became news, then it is fair that this gets equal scrutiny.
Why this isn't getting more play then is puzzling to me. To some extent I get the MSM not covering it - they are morons, but the TPM? HuffPo's half-assed article... just makes me wonder.
May 2, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Evidently 30% of the party is buried in a sound proof fallout shelter, or some such. I am hard pressed to believe that anyone could look at the two months that intervened between TX/OH/VT/RI and PA as doing more good than harm, and this only becomes more true with each passing day.
May 2, 2008 12:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Has Kantor's comments hit the main-street-media yet?
May 2, 2008 12:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know, not only was Clinton v. Brown not half as ugly as what's going on now, Clinton had Ron Brown, chair of the DNC, making the rounds on the talking head shows and talking about how Jerry Brown needed to drop out of the race.
Compare and contrast with the hysteria that erupted in Hillaryland when Howard Dean merely stated that superdelegates need to start making their choice now.
May 2, 2008 12:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Jenn - no kidding.
Double standard for the Campaign for the Restoration? Triple standard? Quadruple?
It's ridiculous.
May 2, 2008 1:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Look at the INTERNALS, people. They kick ass for Obama. Most of the undecideds are black voters, and they come home to Obama in every single primary so far. This is why he exceeds last-week polling in Southern states.
By this very poll, taken at Obama's absolute lowest point - he will win NC by 12-15 points. At least.
It also confirms what I have been telling you kids all week - Obama's absolute floor of white support in NC is 35%. And I think he'll get closer to 40%.
Also, even ARG has an 18-point lead for Obama among early voters. Early voting has been very heavy.
May 2, 2008 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
She wins the double header Tuesday because both States are majority white.
Obama has lost the majority of white votes with Wright's hate of white folks.
It is a reality you can't ignore.
Game changing indeed.
May 2, 2008 1:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Funny, but I didn't take any of Wright's comments personally, and I rather doubt that if we were to meet, Wright would "hate" me, even though I'm white.
Then again, I'm not a stone racist like you are. I pretty much hate racists myself, so if Wright does as well, it's not really something I could hold against him.
May 2, 2008 1:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
You too?
It is not about you, it is about the voters that have not voted yet.
The me generation thinks it is all about them.
Get over yourself.
May 2, 2008 1:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, because compared to people who have already voted, these people who haven't voted yet are like some strange alien beings.
As for "me" generation, I'm not a boomer.
So far you're 0 for 2. Want to try for 0 for 3 or 4? Just spew some more of your patented bullshit.
May 2, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_wKOgMNs0U
Disagrees with you.
"Indianans are shit!" - Mickey Kantor (Hillary '08 Advisor)
May 2, 2008 1:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Obama only wins 74% of the African American vote I will cut out my own testicle with a pen knife and eat it.
He takes 92% of the African American vote and wins by between 12 and 15!
May 2, 2008 1:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I saw something pretty close to that the other day on "Bizarre Foods" on the Travel Channel.
May 2, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
May 2, 2008 1:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Stop yapping about what you don't understand.
It is not about you.
May 2, 2008 1:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dude - or whatever - you said he lost white people over Wright.
I'm white.
So - how does this not apply?
May 2, 2008 1:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
A nine point victory is still a damn fine victory.
That was what you Clinton supporters thought in Pennsylvania, anyway.
May 2, 2008 1:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
HuffPo changed their headline - took the exonerated out.
Hahahhahahahahahahahhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!
It's back to Kantor claims he never said it.
May 2, 2008 1:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Look, do you think a pro-Clinton documentary like The War Room would put something as incendiary as that out there? You people aren't thinking straight. It just doesn't make any sense.
May 2, 2008 1:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ever heard of out-takes?
It was edited, you know.
May 2, 2008 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes but it's a documentary. The footage in question was in the film. There's no other takes.
May 2, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Anyone track down the person who doctored the War Room tapes? Hope it isn't an Obama supporter....eek.
May 2, 2008 1:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dream on, Mark.
May 2, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
The editor of the video claims that he didn't doctor anything - double eek.
May 2, 2008 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
My predictions for Tuesday:
1. Obama wins NC by 15 pts.
2. Clinton wins IN by 3 pts.
3. Eric posts about how Clinton's 3 pt win in IN is decisive and Obama's 15 pt win in NC is really a loss since he needed an even bigger landslide.
May 2, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
I think I have that same model of crystal ball.
LOLOL!!
May 2, 2008 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
100% accurate video/audio. I've been saying for months now that the Clinton's and their staff members (and many of her supporters) are racists and/or don't give a damn about average folks. This once again confirms my earlier views.
Disgusting, vile people.
May 2, 2008 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Doesn't matter if Kantor used the "white n*****" line anyway, since he clearly said Indianans are "shit". Even he isn't trying to dany that.
May 2, 2008 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
It works the same way that Vegas lays off points. If you have too much of a bet on one team, you give points to the other team to even out the wagering. This site has far more Obama backers than Hillary backers. In fact most of those who post in favor of Hillary are really just a cluster of inbred Aryan Nation Scumbags, who are just trying to stop a black man from gaining the nomination. That vermin infested dung heap will not vote for a woman in the fall.
TPM feels that it has more than enough Obama supporters coming to their site, so they are trying to attract more Hillary supporters.
Of course, if they go to far with their cynical enterprise tactics, then we Obama supporters can always destroy them with a complete boycott of their site. That would leave them to stew in the remaining dung heap of racist trolls that they have been catering too.
Here is something to ponder: If TPM is as progressive a site as they claim to be:
Name all the female, minority, and gay/lesbian members on their reporting staff!
May 2, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
As for minorities: Greg and Eric are ostensibly Hillary supporters.
May 2, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Somebody made a good point about Bill Clinton in 1992, and how he didn't lock up the nomination until June. And, he was carrying a ton of baggage going into the fall campaign -- draft dodger, anti-war demonstrations on "foreign soil," I didn't inhale, Jennifer Flowers and other potential bimbo eruptions, and the reputation of being "slick Willie", to name just a few. Obama is not doing anything close to that level of heavy lifting, and anything he gives up to Bill in terms of political skills is more than made up by his genuine sincereity. Hilary's baggage cart, though officially in hiding these days, is even bigger than Bill's in 1992, and, unlike Obama, she does not have sincerity to make up for her deficient political skills -- when matched up against either Bill-1992 or Obama-2008. By election day, Wright, Ayres and Rezko will be answers to trivia questions, John McCain will look like George Bush's twin brother.
May 2, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can someone give me an idea of which of these polling company have the best record throughout this primary season so far?
May 2, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can't help you there but a great resource is Pollster.com - click on the graph over to the right on this page.
Once on theri site you can see they've got similar graphs for each state in contention (if it has had polls conducted) so you can kind of see for yourself. There should be historical poll data too that you could check against primary results, but by looking at not just the trend lines but how scattered (or not) the dots are you can get an idea of where things stand.
For example, look at the graph for Indiana:
http://www.pollster.com/08-IN-Dem-Pres-Primary.php
All sorts of craziness where the trend lines sort of richochet off each other (a random looking scatter of the purple and orange dots there) but you can see that it quickly sorted out and Obama is once more clearly in the lead.
May 2, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
...that's Clinton in the lead.
(Isn't it amazing how mistakes jump out at you in that millisecond during which you are clicking the send button?)
May 2, 2008 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wouldn't get too caught up on the Kantor thing if I were you. Not only does the distraction of the video go against everything Obama stands for but it is clearly a fake.
The original video shows the three men talking about surprisingly good poll numbers and Kantor then adds, "those people must be shitting." From the context it is very clear he is referring to the Bush I campaign team, not residents of Indiana. The other phrase was clearly dubbed in.
Obama supporters who reacted with glee over this clip should be ashamed of themselves. Isn't this pointless distraction the very thing Obama is running against? Can we please get back to the issues and leave this gutter journalism to the pros at cable news?
May 2, 2008 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you Jesus! (I've always wanted to say that.)
In a way this is worse than trying to smear Obama with the out-of-context Wright stuff, because as you say, it goes against so much of what Obama stands for.
May 2, 2008 3:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Latest math:
Obama : 1857 delegates
Clinton : 1780 delegates
This includes FL and MI as voted and generously gives Obama 52 of the 55 of the "uncommitted" in MI. (The delegates have been chosen 52 of the uncommited delegates are Obama supporters and 3 of the "uncommitted delegates are Clinton supporters.)
So there you have it. Right now there is a delta of 77.
(Oh, and Clinton leads in the popular vote.)
May 2, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
"This includes FL and MI as voted"
In other words, your numbers bear no relation to the delegate count that will take place at the convention.
May 2, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
No. You see Obama is in a bind. He sees those FL and MI delegates as the ones that will put him over the top. So HE will start moving to ask them to be seated prior to the first vote because he will not have the 2025 without them. And, he can't wait until the last minute becasue that will smack of opportunism and Clinton will block it if it is guaranteed to put him over.
Nope, he will start asking them to be seated right after IN/NC primaries.
And that is where Clinton has him becasue as the campaign winds down the vast majority will see him as a liability and her as the ascendant candidate.
I've been saying it for months how this will play out.
Get some popcorn and watch it happen.
Clinton is the right choice for the nomination and the presidency.
May 2, 2008 2:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are simply mistaken.
Obama needs 291 delegates to reach 2024, and there are 692 uncommitted delegates left in states other than FL and MI. Hence, he does not need any delegates from FL and MI to win the nomination.
May 2, 2008 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't feed the trolls, it goes right to their chicken-head!
Republicans in Hillary clothing trying to sew seeds of doub. We ain't buying it.
May 2, 2008 3:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gallup Daily: McCain Moves to 6-Point Lead Over Obama
Clinton 48%, Obama 46% in national Democratic nomination preferences
PRINCETON, NJ -- John McCain has moved to a six percentage point, 48% to 42%, lead over Barack Obama in Gallup Poll Daily tracking of the general election, while he edges out Hillary Clinton by only one point, 46% to 45%.
This is according to Gallup Poll Daily tracking from April 27-May 1 with national registered voters.
The ongoing turmoil in the Democratic race -- with neither candidate able to sustain a winning streak in the primaries and animosity seemingly mounting between them -- seems to be benefiting McCain and hurting both Democrats. Last week McCain had fallen three points behind Clinton in the preferences of registered voters for the general election, and only tied Obama.
Although both Clinton and Obama have lost ground to McCain over the past week, the current results may be particularly troubling for Obama in trying to combat Clinton's assertion to superdelegates that she would be the more electable of the two candidates in November.
The current six-point margin for McCain over Obama is the largest lead McCain has had over either candidate since Gallup began tracking general election preferences in early March. The gap between Obama and Clinton's percent of the vote when both are pitted against McCain is also the largest since the general election tracking began.
May 2, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
It works the same way that Vegas lays off points. If you have too much of a bet on one team, you give points to the other team to even out the wagering. This site has far more Obama backers than Hillary backers. In fact most of those who post in favor of Hillary are really just a cluster of inbred Aryan Nation Scumbags, who are just trying to stop a black man from gaining the nomination. That vermin infested dung heap will not vote for a woman in the fall.
TPM feels that it has more than enough Obama supporters coming to their site, so they are trying to attract more Hillary supporters.
Of course, if they go to far with their cynical enterprise tactics, then we Obama supporters can always destroy them with a complete boycott of their site. That would leave them to stew in the remaining dung heap of racist trolls that they have been catering too.
Here is something to ponder: If TPM is as progressive a site as they claim to be:
Name all the female, minority, and gay/lesbian members on their reporting staff!
May 2, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama needs to win North Carolina big to prove his campaign isn't tanking and he also needs to win Indiana. I thought Obama was the frontrunner? Why can't he win? and win big???
May 2, 2008 2:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
From Fox News:
More than a week after Barack Obama vowed to “close the deal” and wrap up the Democratic presidential nomination, he finds Hillary Clinton closing the gap and polls showing Americans still questioning his relationship with his controversial former pastor.
Clinton, still numerically outmatched when it comes to delegates won, is experiencing a surge in North Carolina and Indiana, which are holding primaries Tuesday and will set the trajectory for the campaign’s final weeks.
An average of polls on RealClearPolitics.com shows Obama with a 7-point lead in North Carolina; last month he was carrying the state in some surveys by more than 20 points. And Indiana, a state that was thought to be neck-and-neck, is trending toward Clinton. Averages show her up by 6 points in the state.
Clinton was endorsed Friday by The Indianapolis Star, which circulates in the state’s competitive capital suburbs. And a new Rasmussen Poll indicated that voters weren’t accepting Obama’s moves this week to denounce his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, and shed the controversy surrounding him.
May 2, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
"From Fox News:"
I think people stopped reading after that point - when Hillary supporters have to resort to quoting FOX, you've lost. Actually, what am I talking about - you lost a long time ago.
May 2, 2008 2:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Judging by Obama's insuperable delegate lead, his continued success on the superdelegate front, and the fact that he's won four of the last seven contests, he doesn't need to convince anyone that his campaign isn't "tanking."
May 2, 2008 2:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
No. You see Obama is in a bind. He will need FL and MI delegates. He sees those FL and MI delegates as the ones that will put him over the top. So HE will start moving to ask them to be seated prior to the first vote because he will not have the 2025 without them. And, he can't wait until the last minute becasue that will smack of opportunism and Clinton will block it if it is guaranteed to put him over.
Nope, he will start asking them to be seated right after IN/NC primaries.
And that is where Clinton has him becasue as the campaign winds down the vast majority will see him as a liability and her as the ascendant candidate.
I've been saying it for months how this will play out.
Get some popcorn and watch it happen.
Clinton is the right choice for the nomination and the presidency.
May 2, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
"He will need FL and MI delegates. He sees those FL and MI delegates as the ones that will put him over the top. "
He needs no such thing, desperate much? Clinton now needs it, even though she initially said that they wouldn't count - but its a moot point because she won't get the nomination anyways.
May 2, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
As I've explained to you repeatedly, Obama doesn't need a single delegate from MI or FL to reach the 2024 needed for the nomination.
May 2, 2008 2:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
douglasfactors, Obamaheads are too cocksure.
Oh Dean...I mean Obama.
May 2, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
"douglasfactors, Obamaheads are too cocksure."
Its like Larry Bird used to do to his trash talking opponents during the forth quarter - he's just simply point to the scoreboard.
May 2, 2008 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama needs to win North Carolina big to prove his campaign isn't tanking and he also needs to win Indiana. I thought Obama was the frontrunner? Why can't he win? and win big???
I thought Hillary was going to wrap this up by Super Tuesday as she was the chosen one with the Clinton brand and 16 years of campaigning in Pennsylvania to eek out a 9.2 (that makes it double digits I guess) win in Penn. Why can't she win? and win big??
May 2, 2008 2:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
1.7% affected by.....
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=90114863
??????
Makes ya wonder....
May 2, 2008 3:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Interestingly (and I will not hold my breath waiting for the post to arrive touting this result) Insider Advantage released a poll today showing Obama leading Clinton by 5 pts in Indiana. Now that might sound like bad news (low single digits victory for Obama), but Insider Advantage is the same outfit that had Clinton ahead of Obama by 2 pts in NC just a few days ago. In other words, according to this most recent poll, Obama is re-opening his lead. It will be interesting to see over the next three days whether this trend emerges in other polling outfits.
May 2, 2008 4:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wait, I thought 9 points was double digits.
May 2, 2008 4:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let's stop denigrating and taunting one another. The bottom line is Clinton is making gains and Obama is losing a bit of ground due this Wright business. However, it's pretty obvious he still has a lead that Hillary won't catch. Her only choice is to woo the Super Delegates, which she really hasn't been to successful doing yet. I think Obama will win NC and Hillary will win IN. that's a wash, which works in Obama's favor no matter what spin anyone puts on it.
May 2, 2008 5:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
dear erik klonfeld, the internals have it at 9.1, correct? that's why it isn't double digits. jeremiah wright humps girls half his age at the workplace. jeremiah wright lies about his visits to war zones. jeremiah wright calls his wife a cunt. how can obama expect us to take him seriously?
May 2, 2008 10:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Had Reverend Wright been "visible" from the beginning, Obama would never be in the race. It's taking time for things to definitively shift, but they WILL shift.
The success of the Democratic Party will depend on Obama's ability to back Clinton, knowing that an African American presidential candidate with slightly less incendiary spiritual connections will --down the road -- possibly be in some future election the candidate that he would have liked to be in this one. And that possibility will exist because he broke the barrier in 2008. Will Obama -- like Dean -- have the statesmanship to fall into line behind Clinton?
May 3, 2008 7:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
it is often the case in life and definitely in politics that one is called upon to reconcile 2 seemingly contradictory pieces of information. we have such a challenge here:
on the one hand, polling suggest voters believe the continuing campaign is "harming" the democratic party.
on the other hand, we have the hard results of voter turnout in primary and caucus states that indicate voter interest and turnout are at all time historic highs.
so how do we reconcile these 2 pieces of information? how do we decide which has more validity?
well, since 1 data point (voter turnout) is hard and tangible evidence of affirmative voter expression of interest and enthusiasm, i would suggest that is the data point that should be given top priority in our analysis. that data point represents the core truth of voter opinions about this race.
now, we're not going to discard and ignore outright the polling data point, but we now analyze it not to determine what is the core truth about voter opinion -- we have that already by registrations and turnout. instead, we analyze the polling data point to learn more about what it is that voters are trying to communicate when they answer a polling question about harm to the party with a "yes."
my take: they're making a case about the tone of the campaign and not about continuing the campaign itself. they're not critiquing whether the campaigning should continue (it should), but HOW the campaign should continue.
a campaign that continues and focuses on the issues and has each candidate making their own case for president rather than trying to knock their opponent's case will likely not be seen as "harmful" by poll responders.
and, of course, having a media that repeorts on the campaigning as it actually is versus hyping it up as being more combative and negative than it is merely to try to boost ratings would help too.
May 3, 2008 8:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
vaughnb, your thinking is wishful. obama will be the nominee. clinton will never repair the very real damage that she has done to major key constituencies in the party. and you have fallen for the ridiculous guilt by association smear campaign. where is the corruption, the crimes, the sex, the drugs, the lies? it aint there. the msm will do it to all who threaten them and you and your ilk are either accomplices or sheep
May 3, 2008 8:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
I do agree with you whole heartedly bdiddy. If only the media would focus on the issue and not try to hype things for ratings a lot of us would be a lot more objective in our thinking. One should also bear in mind that too many people depend on the mass media for their source of information. This election season by all account has being one of the most engaging, and if the the mass media was not hyping the character issue more than the economic, foreign and domestic issue maybe by now the democratic primary would be over. This is the election season of a lifetime for some of these network that needed a life line to stay viable, so they are willing to do whatever they can to prolong the democratic primary.Don't be distracted people, focus on the issues that affects our daily lives.
May 3, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
While the media loves to breakdown every demographic...old, young, rich, poor, educated, uneducated, blue collar, beer drinkers, bowlers and more....for some verrrrry interesting reason....they never mention...
HILLARY HAS LOST THE ENTIRE BLACK VOTE....POSSIBLY FOREVER !!!This is the message currently being sent by blacks to the DNC (and the superdelegates)in great numbers. There is NO WAY Hillary will defeat McCain without the support of Black America aka the guaranteed Democratic vote. Please read Huffington Posts story on how the Hillary Camp has been feeding Obama attacks TO THE GOP !!!!! What a traitor to the Democratic Party !!!!!!!! For those who didn't know, Hillary started her campaign with 82% of the black support. But as Blacks learned more about her (Goldwater Girl...possibly Against Civil Rights Act '64....It was LBJ...Not MLK....etc) combined with Bill's (...fairy tale....Jessie Won S.C. too...etc.)...blacks were shocked beyond repair. (remember....we luved Bill so much we called him 'The First Black President')....but never again....WHERE'S THAT STORY.
And if the DNC thinks.....'ohhhhhh....the blacks will be angry at first...but they'll come around'.....then they don't know the severity of what the Clinton's have done....This has nothing to do with Obama !!!! We (blacks) have awakened to the truth about the Clintons......and with more exposure like the recent Huff story re: Hill's feeding the GOP Obama smears...our friends of ALL races will awaken soon !!!!!!!!!...THAT'S THE REAL STORY !!!!
Greg Jones
www.Blacks4Barack.org
(A Multi-Racial, Grassroots Org...Dedicated To Truth)
p.s. Blacks4Barack.org was started in Feb. 2007 (by Greg Jones) because of the fact that VERY few blacks were for Obama at that time.....they were ALL for Hillary !!!!! We knew that Obama was the best person to run our country and bring our troops home and that is why we started our grassroots organization with a mission to increase black voter registration and to invigorate support for Obama. (Not because he's black...but because he's most qualified) The more black voters learned about Obama...the more they liked him....and the more they learned about the Clintons....the angrier they got !!!!!!!!!!!!!! We are appreciative of our friends of ALL races....who are working together....for the very best candidate....to put America on the right track.....Barack Obama ! THANK YOU !
May 3, 2008 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Definitely OBAMA TONE : lots of exclamation points, no information, unproven assertions and lots of superlatives. Congratulations on not being manipulated to the point of using insulting name-calling.
The fact that Obama's constituency has been racially aligned is indisputable. Whites have been far less racially aligned than blacks. But I think that North Carolina is going to show some serious shifts in voter behavior and blacks -- like whites -- are going to vote in greater numbers with less reference to skin color.
Reverend Wright will have contributed to that demographic change.
May 4, 2008 4:06 PM | Reply | Permalink