Yes! Clinton is gaining as Obama self-destructions. Primary too long? Good, time for Obama to quit next week. Especially if the trends continue and Clinton picks up IN and comes close in NC. If she pulls off a win in NC, which is remotely possible, Obama's fate is sealed. Otherwise, on to the next states...

Matthew

They loved ARG polls all last week and the week before. Now that it shows Obama up by 11, it isn't worth a mention here?

I know this poll is horseshit, but lets just say that Obama won NC by 9 ponts - don't you love how it would be characterized as "winning in single digits", when Hillary's win in Penn by the exact same margin was "winning in double digits".

Hey Eric, why didnt you expand on the Zogby numbers? Didnt fit your agenda?

Bill Clinton won the Democratic nomination on June 2nd, 1992. He was elected President five months later. And there are many people who remember the days when nominees were never chosen before the convention. The big reason for all the hand wringing over how long this is dragging on is because the Obama camp is pushing it. Before Texas and Ohio they were trying to get Hillary to quit. Before Pennsylvania they were trying to get Hillary to quit. They are less concerned about the Democrat's chances in November than they are about Obama's slow but steady decline. He hasn't won a major race since February, and a lot of bad things have been coming out. I call your attention to the graph displayed on this page of polling trends to from Polster.com.

The poll states that he is winning AA 74%-10%. I'm assuming that means that 16% are undecided? Does anyone know what the last state was where Obama won only 74% of the AA vote?

I don't normally agree with a lot of the TPM slamming comments but I have to admit to being a bit puzzled by this whole episode with Kantar. While I don't believe it is overly newsworthy on its own, I think it is relevant in context of the coverage of Rev Wright. Which - incidently I didn't think was newsworthy either but as it became news, then it is fair that this gets equal scrutiny.
Why this isn't getting more play then is puzzling to me. To some extent I get the MSM not covering it - they are morons, but the TPM? HuffPo's half-assed article... just makes me wonder.

Has Kantor's comments hit the main-street-media yet?

Look at the INTERNALS, people. They kick ass for Obama. Most of the undecideds are black voters, and they come home to Obama in every single primary so far. This is why he exceeds last-week polling in Southern states.

By this very poll, taken at Obama's absolute lowest point - he will win NC by 12-15 points. At least.

It also confirms what I have been telling you kids all week - Obama's absolute floor of white support in NC is 35%. And I think he'll get closer to 40%.

Also, even ARG has an 18-point lead for Obama among early voters. Early voting has been very heavy.

She wins the double header Tuesday because both States are majority white.

Obama has lost the majority of white votes with Wright's hate of white folks.

It is a reality you can't ignore.

Game changing indeed.

If Obama only wins 74% of the African American vote I will cut out my own testicle with a pen knife and eat it.

He takes 92% of the African American vote and wins by between 12 and 15!

It is a reality you can't ignore.

Dude, just how many white people do you think you're talking to?

I'm white - he didn't lose me.

He didn't lose anyone I know.

You are so very over your head.

HuffPo changed their headline - took the exonerated out.

Hahahhahahahahahahahhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!

It's back to Kantor claims he never said it.

Look, do you think a pro-Clinton documentary like The War Room would put something as incendiary as that out there? You people aren't thinking straight. It just doesn't make any sense.

My predictions for Tuesday:

1. Obama wins NC by 15 pts.

2. Clinton wins IN by 3 pts.

3. Eric posts about how Clinton's 3 pt win in IN is decisive and Obama's 15 pt win in NC is really a loss since he needed an even bigger landslide.

Doesn't matter if Kantor used the "white n*****" line anyway, since he clearly said Indianans are "shit". Even he isn't trying to dany that.

Can someone give me an idea of which of these polling company have the best record throughout this primary season so far?

It works the same way that Vegas lays off points. If you have too much of a bet on one team, you give points to the other team to even out the wagering. This site has far more Obama backers than Hillary backers. In fact most of those who post in favor of Hillary are really just a cluster of inbred Aryan Nation Scumbags, who are just trying to stop a black man from gaining the nomination. That vermin infested dung heap will not vote for a woman in the fall.

TPM feels that it has more than enough Obama supporters coming to their site, so they are trying to attract more Hillary supporters.

Of course, if they go to far with their cynical enterprise tactics, then we Obama supporters can always destroy them with a complete boycott of their site. That would leave them to stew in the remaining dung heap of racist trolls that they have been catering too.

Here is something to ponder: If TPM is as progressive a site as they claim to be:

Name all the female, minority, and gay/lesbian members on their reporting staff!

Obama needs to win North Carolina big to prove his campaign isn't tanking and he also needs to win Indiana. I thought Obama was the frontrunner? Why can't he win? and win big???

I thought Hillary was going to wrap this up by Super Tuesday as she was the chosen one with the Clinton brand and 16 years of campaigning in Pennsylvania to eek out a 9.2 (that makes it double digits I guess) win in Penn. Why can't she win? and win big??

1.7% affected by.....

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=90114863

??????

Makes ya wonder....

Interestingly (and I will not hold my breath waiting for the post to arrive touting this result) Insider Advantage released a poll today showing Obama leading Clinton by 5 pts in Indiana. Now that might sound like bad news (low single digits victory for Obama), but Insider Advantage is the same outfit that had Clinton ahead of Obama by 2 pts in NC just a few days ago. In other words, according to this most recent poll, Obama is re-opening his lead. It will be interesting to see over the next three days whether this trend emerges in other polling outfits.

Wait, I thought 9 points was double digits.

dear erik klonfeld, the internals have it at 9.1, correct? that's why it isn't double digits. jeremiah wright humps girls half his age at the workplace. jeremiah wright lies about his visits to war zones. jeremiah wright calls his wife a cunt. how can obama expect us to take him seriously?

it is often the case in life and definitely in politics that one is called upon to reconcile 2 seemingly contradictory pieces of information. we have such a challenge here:

on the one hand, polling suggest voters believe the continuing campaign is "harming" the democratic party.

on the other hand, we have the hard results of voter turnout in primary and caucus states that indicate voter interest and turnout are at all time historic highs.

so how do we reconcile these 2 pieces of information? how do we decide which has more validity?

well, since 1 data point (voter turnout) is hard and tangible evidence of affirmative voter expression of interest and enthusiasm, i would suggest that is the data point that should be given top priority in our analysis. that data point represents the core truth of voter opinions about this race.

now, we're not going to discard and ignore outright the polling data point, but we now analyze it not to determine what is the core truth about voter opinion -- we have that already by registrations and turnout. instead, we analyze the polling data point to learn more about what it is that voters are trying to communicate when they answer a polling question about harm to the party with a "yes."

my take: they're making a case about the tone of the campaign and not about continuing the campaign itself. they're not critiquing whether the campaigning should continue (it should), but HOW the campaign should continue.

a campaign that continues and focuses on the issues and has each candidate making their own case for president rather than trying to knock their opponent's case will likely not be seen as "harmful" by poll responders.

and, of course, having a media that repeorts on the campaigning as it actually is versus hyping it up as being more combative and negative than it is merely to try to boost ratings would help too.

I do agree with you whole heartedly bdiddy. If only the media would focus on the issue and not try to hype things for ratings a lot of us would be a lot more objective in our thinking. One should also bear in mind that too many people depend on the mass media for their source of information. This election season by all account has being one of the most engaging, and if the the mass media was not hyping the character issue more than the economic, foreign and domestic issue maybe by now the democratic primary would be over. This is the election season of a lifetime for some of these network that needed a life line to stay viable, so they are willing to do whatever they can to prolong the democratic primary.Don't be distracted people, focus on the issues that affects our daily lives.

While the media loves to breakdown every demographic...old, young, rich, poor, educated, uneducated, blue collar, beer drinkers, bowlers and more....for some verrrrry interesting reason....they never mention...
HILLARY HAS LOST THE ENTIRE BLACK VOTE....POSSIBLY FOREVER !!!This is the message currently being sent by blacks to the DNC (and the superdelegates)in great numbers. There is NO WAY Hillary will defeat McCain without the support of Black America aka the guaranteed Democratic vote. Please read Huffington Posts story on how the Hillary Camp has been feeding Obama attacks TO THE GOP !!!!! What a traitor to the Democratic Party !!!!!!!! For those who didn't know, Hillary started her campaign with 82% of the black support. But as Blacks learned more about her (Goldwater Girl...possibly Against Civil Rights Act '64....It was LBJ...Not MLK....etc) combined with Bill's (...fairy tale....Jessie Won S.C. too...etc.)...blacks were shocked beyond repair. (remember....we luved Bill so much we called him 'The First Black President')....but never again....WHERE'S THAT STORY.

And if the DNC thinks.....'ohhhhhh....the blacks will be angry at first...but they'll come around'.....then they don't know the severity of what the Clinton's have done....This has nothing to do with Obama !!!! We (blacks) have awakened to the truth about the Clintons......and with more exposure like the recent Huff story re: Hill's feeding the GOP Obama smears...our friends of ALL races will awaken soon !!!!!!!!!...THAT'S THE REAL STORY !!!!

Greg Jones
www.Blacks4Barack.org
(A Multi-Racial, Grassroots Org...Dedicated To Truth)

p.s. Blacks4Barack.org was started in Feb. 2007 (by Greg Jones) because of the fact that VERY few blacks were for Obama at that time.....they were ALL for Hillary !!!!! We knew that Obama was the best person to run our country and bring our troops home and that is why we started our grassroots organization with a mission to increase black voter registration and to invigorate support for Obama. (Not because he's black...but because he's most qualified) The more black voters learned about Obama...the more they liked him....and the more they learned about the Clintons....the angrier they got !!!!!!!!!!!!!! We are appreciative of our friends of ALL races....who are working together....for the very best candidate....to put America on the right track.....Barack Obama ! THANK YOU !