Totality Of Polls Suggest that Indiana And North Carolina Could Be A Wash
So what will happen tomorrow in the Indiana and North Carolina primaries?
If you look at the totality of all the polls thus far, they suggest that in terms of both the pledged del count and popular vote, an Obama win in North Carolina will be nearly canceled out by a corresponding Hillary victory in Indiana -- meaning the whole night could end up being more or less a wash.
This isn't to say that Obama won't come out on top. If the current average of polls holds up, he'll likely net gains in both the pledged del and popular vote count, thanks to North Carolina's greater overall population. But if you project out the size of the victories based on current polls, it looks as if his net gains in both categories could be negligible.
The polls have shown Hillary's overall lead in Indiana to be in the mid-single digits. But some polls suggest that late deciders will break her way, and precedent suggests the same, given that this happened in both Ohio and Pennsylvania. So let's assume a 55%-45% win for Hillary in Indiana.
Meanwhile, Obama leads in North Carolina by almost ten, so let's assume Obama will win that state by a similar margin of 10 points.
If that happens, our calculations suggest that Obama will walk away with a slight edge for the night of roughly 95 pledged delegates to Hillary's 92. That's because Indiana has 72 delegates, which would roughly break down to 40 for Hillary and 32 for Obama. And North Carolina has 115 delegates, which would roughly break down to 63 for Obama and 52 for Hillary.
What about the popular vote? Going by Chuck Todd's projections for the total popular votes in these two states, Obama -- assuming a roughly 10-point margin in both states -- would gain a net popular vote victory for the night of about 60,000 votes.
In short, the night could end with little change in the delegate or popular vote margins between the two Dems. This would allow Hillary to argue that the contest should continue, and enable her to keep sowing doubts with the super-dels by asking why he can't "close the deal."
But this would also bring Obama that much closer to the nomination by making it that much harder for Hillary to ever reach 2,025 delegates -- while bringing himself closer to that magic number.
The latest polls, along with a poll-of-polls bottom line, after the jump.
Indiana
Pollster.com Average: Clinton 49.5%, Obama 43.3%
SurveyUSA: Clinton 54%, Obama 42%
ARG: Clinton 53%, Obama 45%
Suffolk: Clinton 49%, Obama 43%
Zogby: Obama 44%, Clinton 42%
InsiderAdvantage: Clinton 47%, Obama 40%
North Carolina
Pollster.com Average: Obama 50.1%, Clinton 41.5%
InsiderAdvantage: Obama 48%, Clinton 45%
PPP (D): Obama 53%, Clinton 43%
ARG: Obama 50%, Clinton 42%
Zogby: Obama 48%, Clinton 40%
Rasmussen: Obama 49%, Clinton 40%
Delegates nominate, not some vague notion of a popular vote tally. It is not in the nominating rules of the party, so stop pushing that absurd notion. It has no standing. It is the delegate count, Stupid!
May 5, 2008 3:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't get mad at Eric, he's just reporting the spin we will no doubt be hearing from the Clintonistas.
You are right of course. But since what really matters right now are superdelegates popular vote, while mostly meaningless, does (or can) play a part in their decision making.
May 5, 2008 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, the delegate count. Which includes superdelegates. Which is party of the nominating rules. Stop pushing against it, please.
May 5, 2008 4:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
The media better start acknowledging that a wash means Obama has won. Hillary needs nearly 70% of the vote in EVERY remaining race, and anything less is a LOSS for her. 50-50 equals Hillary losing by 20%.
Long story short (okay, it isn't even that long), it is IMPOSSIBLE for her to win:
http://www.thepersonalispolitical.com/2008/04/pennsylvania-results.html
Game over man, game over!
May 5, 2008 4:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tomorrow will be no wash. Hillery is going to win big in IN, more than 10%. She's going to win a squeaker in NC, given the bang up job WVWV has done "registering" African American men. She's going to run the table and win every primary left.
Then she'll get the delegation from FL and MI credentialed, because she a working-class girl who likes pick-up trucks, coffee, and whiskey (not in that order!!!) She's not some hoighty-toighty multi-millionaire elitist from an Ivy league law school like Obama. She's downhome country who likes herself some NASCAR and gettin' drunk with the boys. But not so drunk that she can't answer the phone at 3:00 AM. Sure, she may slur a little, but she'll know that she'll need to push the button and obliterate Ahmadinnerjacket. It's what she does best.
Hillery in 08!!! You know ya wanna!!!!
May 5, 2008 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ahmadinnerjacket
I am not worthy.
(-.-)(_ _)(-.-)
May 5, 2008 4:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
How did I miss that???? That was inspired! ;)
May 5, 2008 4:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
David Letterman called him that when the Iranian president visited the UN a few months ago.
May 5, 2008 5:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
They've been calling him "I'm a dinner jacket" on the Stephanie Miller Show since this time last year
May 5, 2008 5:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey Eric - nice job.
May 5, 2008 4:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed. No snark here either.
May 5, 2008 5:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope you know I mean, that - not snark. This is a well done post.
May 5, 2008 4:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree, Eric - very nice analysis (no snark).
What I don't understand is why anyone is buying her "why can't he close the deal" nonsense? If she's such a superior candidate, why can't SHE close the deal? After all, she had the DLC machinery, about 100 front-loaded superdelegates, the name recognition, tons of very wealthy donors, and a whole host of other advantages coming into this primary season. Why hasn't anyone in the media confronted her with this? What's she going to say? "He brainwashed people", or "he cast a spell over people"? The simple fact of the matter is that he has run a vastly superior campaign, his ground operations have been second-to-none, he has perfected Dean's 50-state strategy, and he has successfully tapped into an enormous grass- and net-roots groundwell. She has just failed on every count and it is only because she is Hillary Clinton that she is still given any credibility whatsoever in her quest to stay in this race even though she has no chance of getting the nomination.
May 5, 2008 4:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, why is it "he can't close the deal" when the Clintons have campaigned like crazy in NC - and she has the "momentum" coming out of March and April? Amongst the Clinton family campaigners, they've put in more than 3 times the stumps in NC as the Obama campaign - Bill alone put in 15 in the last two days! Hillary has made 20 appearances in NC to Barack's 12. She's spent close to the same amount as he has on paid media here, and gotten all that free press as well (the local papers cover *every* campaign appearance by a Clinton, with much less coverage for the Obamas). Plus, Hillary has had the advantage of the Governor stumping for her, making national news by saying crazy things in her "praise" - and as we know, any press is good press in this race.
All of this happening on Hillary's behalf while the prevailing Obama storyline has been all Wright, all the time. Well, okay, there's also been a bit of flag pin and bowling to break that up, but still... what has he had to help him?
So it seems to me that there's NO WAY she can legitimately claim that OBAMA "can't close the deal" if he loses or even closely wins NC. She *has* to win NC to prove that she's got a chance going forward. Otherwise, even if he wins in a "squeaker," he's proven that he's teflon. Period.
May 5, 2008 8:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
word
May 6, 2008 4:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Read this when thinking about Hillary's Indiana spin:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-sirota/spinning-fine-spinning-an_b_100072.html
May 5, 2008 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gee Eric you should have taken stats from the Econ dept instead of Charles Franklin
A 10% HRC win in IN
A 10% HRC win in NC
Obama wins and the Magic Number?
Well look for it to be reduced about 100 delegates to 34/170
May 5, 2008 4:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Careful with your choice of words, Eric. I think you mean to say, "...enable her to continue, rather unsuccessfully, trying to sow doubts with the super-dels..." because that is actually far more accurate.
And the "close the deal" mantra is a media-based meme; I highly doubt superdelegates are paying attention to that line.
May 5, 2008 4:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
The whole "close the deal" thing makes it sound like Obama is trying to get lucky with some girl in a bar.
I wouldn't want to "close the deal" with Hillary either. I might get some strange veneral disease, like "liaritis."
May 5, 2008 4:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOLOLOLO)LOLOLOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
That's just perfect. It does sound like that - what fucking "deal?" When he gets the delegate count there, he's done.
It's kinda silly, just like you said.
May 5, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Class act.
May 5, 2008 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
You don't know me.
Save all the hatin and the poppin, dude - you don't know me.
May 5, 2008 6:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Somebody tell me: what value is there in all this speculation? I'm beginning to think that reading the entrails of a goose might be just as reliable.
May 5, 2008 4:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've just consulted the Oracle that is my own entrails, and, after due consideration, debate, and Entmootery, the consensus is this: I'm full of shit, which is what one would expect from the perspective of one's own rusty innards.
Entrails Never Lie.
Obama will win NC by 15, IN by 4. Oil bribe = fart in church.
May 5, 2008 4:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I pretty much agree but I think his win in NC will be closer to 15% (because of what I think is is underestimation of AA support in these polls) and her win in IN will be more like 5/6%. In PA and OH, HRC had the machine and it probably pushed her up by about 3% over the last poll average. She doesn't have that advantage in IN so I think she'll come in right around the average.
May 5, 2008 4:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
You could be correct. Bayh is a Senator and has no machine.
May 5, 2008 8:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
"A Wash"
Meaning Hillary still has no shot at the nomination short of a massive Superdelegate move in her direction, which ain't happenin'.
May 5, 2008 4:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary's sewing doubts among the superdelegates all right. Hers.
May 5, 2008 4:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
sowing, argh
May 5, 2008 4:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
That flub has me in stitches!
May 5, 2008 6:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good point!
May 5, 2008 4:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Hillary may pull off a surprise in North Carolina. View Obama as like the incumbent, since he has been leading all the way and Hillary as like the challenger. Obama's number has been only at or barely below or just above 50%. I think 50% is his ceiling. But I doubt he hits his ceiling. I suspect his vote is overstated. And I predict big break in undecideds toward Hillary.
My prediction, ekes out a very narrow 50.5 -49.5 upset in NC and wins Indiana pretty much going away.
That would make it a game-changing night, I think.
May 5, 2008 4:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
And then we'll shoot down some of those pigs flying around in the sky and have us a barbeque. We'll need to huddle close around the fire to stay warm, though, because that draft blowing off the glaciers in Hell will be mighty chilly. All of that will happen before Hilllary wins North Carolina.
May 5, 2008 5:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
That was pretty witty, Steve! ;)
May 5, 2008 6:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
For what it is worth, the most recent Insider Advantage is now 48-44 Clinton. Only 5% of the White vote is undecided. 16% of the Black vote is undecided. Will those undecideds break the same way as the ones in OH, PA, etc.? One poll, I know, but.
May 5, 2008 4:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, Obama is only ~ 7000 donations away from 1,500,000 donors!
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/stateupdates/gGChXk
C'mon gotalife, pull out that credit card and let's get this puppy done!
May 5, 2008 4:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gottalife's mom took his credit card away months ago when he ordered 324 lifesize inflatible Hillary dolls and maxed the card out.
May 5, 2008 4:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did he get the standard three-ball model, or the "I donated one to Barack" two-ball model?
May 5, 2008 4:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wonder if Hillary now wishes Carville had kept his big mouth shut...
May 5, 2008 5:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
What happens to the numbers if Zogby is excluded from the equation?
May 5, 2008 4:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
What happens if Hillary is excluded from them, since she is already excluded from getting the nomination.
Hillary is continuing her Nothing Better To Do, Huckabee vanity tour.
May 5, 2008 4:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the constructive input Liam.
Enjoying cheetos with the Kool-Aid today?
May 5, 2008 4:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Joe Scarborough: informative and entertaining.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=xAz6O0xcEuI&feature=related
May 5, 2008 4:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Joe Scarbarough - douche bag Republican tool and verteran member of Operation Chaos.
You quoting Joe tells us a lot.
May 5, 2008 4:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
BO appeared on Morning Joe today and did pretty well. The show is good enough for BO, but not the cheetos crowd.
May 5, 2008 4:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama went on Fox Noise too, I didn't like that either.
As to the cheetos thing, well, I'd rather eat cheetos than sniff glue, like you Clinton Renfros do.
May 5, 2008 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bon appétit.
This means "have a good meal" or "enjoy your meal."
May 5, 2008 4:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lattes, waffles and now cheetos used as insults? What do Clinton supporters have against delicious foods?
May 5, 2008 4:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
All the glue sniffing has shorted out their sense of taste.
May 5, 2008 4:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
I like mine all mashed up in a bowl together with concentrated Kool-Aid for syrup. Mmmmmmmmmmm.
May 5, 2008 5:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would think that Cheetos would be a favorite of the working man, and would not go well with lattes.
I recall subsisting on Doritos between the years 1985 - 1997. Now it's pretzels dipped in peanut butter.
But these topics are of course, distractions.
May 5, 2008 5:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bat Guano: I assume, from your position on Doritos, that you were originally a Colbert supporter?
May 5, 2008 9:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm confused... I though I was suppose to be an elitist brie and wine sipper... now I am a low-brow Cheetoes™ and kool-aide drinker?
So where does the lattes fit into the gastronomical derison from the anti-Obama crowd?
May 5, 2008 5:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Joe Scarborough: Loudmouthed not very bright horse's ass and what was that dead girl doing there, anyway, Joe?
May 5, 2008 4:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
With one third of the N. Carolina Democratic vote being blacks, and 90% of those votes going to Obama, any victory in N. Carolina by anything but a large margin does not shake the growing perception that he can't close the deal with white voters.
May 5, 2008 4:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Totally false.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/03/opinion/03blow.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
May 5, 2008 4:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why can't the wife of the first black president close the deal with black voters? Huh? Huh?
May 5, 2008 4:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
A good place to look may be the "Race Memo" distributed by Obama's campaign to several media outlets. You ever wonder why Obama has the rich white establishment behind him, and Hillary has the majority of the CBC supporting her?
May 5, 2008 4:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I like that picture Mark....He kinda looks like James Dean......:)
May 5, 2008 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's my favorite - I told Mark that a week or so again.
May 5, 2008 4:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
THAT'S IT!! I've been trying to figure that out ever since I first saw the picture!
May 5, 2008 9:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
A vote is a vote. Only Racist Scumbag Aryan Nation Trolls, like Otto, think otherwise. He thinks that inbred Springer Rejects, such as him, have a special voting advantage just because they are white skinned trailer trash.
May 5, 2008 4:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Aw, come on, you know they're only worth 3/5ths of the white vote, Liam. He's not an Aryan Nation racist, he's a true American (at least the kind from the early 1800s LOL!) ;)
May 5, 2008 4:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Funny, he closed the deal in very white states all over the map, from Iowa to Wisconsin. Watch what we do to kill Clinton's nomination bid here in Oregon, the whitest state in the union.
Obama has no problem closing the deal with white voters.
May 5, 2008 5:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
So, it's all about race? Thanks, but no thanks.
May 5, 2008 7:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know, the funny thing is that I'm a white Obama supporter from NC - and a woman, too. Imagine it! All my white women voter friends are also Obama supporters. I guess the white women of the NC clitorati aren't old enough or uneducated enough or white enough to count as "real Americans" somehow? Why can't Clinton close the deal with us?
May 5, 2008 9:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
She wins Inadiana by 10 and NC by.
Crushes him in WV, KY and Puerto Rico to win the nomination.
President Clinton was right when he said it is over after Puerto Rico.
For now on, I will have to call him President Bill Clinton and her President Hillary Clinton.
May 5, 2008 4:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Even if what you say comes to pass, and it never has before so I don't see why it would now, Obama would still win. He has more delegates than she does...
May 5, 2008 4:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, the strength she demonstrates in a territory that can't actually vote in the presidential election will clearly turn a few superdelegates' heads.
May 5, 2008 4:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL touché.
May 5, 2008 5:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, goatlife, I LOVE your prediction for NC. What a wuss ... what's it going to be? 30 points again? LOL!
May 5, 2008 4:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
A wash? The Presumptive nominee should dominate both contests. That is if he really is the presumptive nominee.
May 5, 2008 4:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
For the loser to overtake the winner, she has to close the gap between them and surpass him. Or she's still the loser.
May 5, 2008 4:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Clinton wins more delegates than Obama tomorrow, Obama is finished.
It really is that simple.
May 5, 2008 4:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now THAT is funny LOL!
May 5, 2008 4:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow. I'm slayed.
May 5, 2008 4:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, you are very simple, in a Forest Gump kind of way.
May 5, 2008 4:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
How insightful.
May 5, 2008 4:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
...and accurate. Still waiting for you or gotachickenlife to wager your avatar on any prediction you make. Yeah, I know, too scared to stand by anything you write. Let us know when you're ready to take a stand.
May 5, 2008 7:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
How do you figure, seeing as he is in the overall delgate lead by more than 130? Seems more like her goose is cooked if she doesn't emerge with a *signficant* delegate gain tomorrow.
May 5, 2008 4:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Over 70% in both states, to be exact.
May 5, 2008 5:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
really, it's not. Hillary won't catch up to Obama, and Obama won't drop out, so it's not over for Obama no matter what.
It will be a split, which just brings Obama closer to the nomination.
Sorry, fogu2, gotalife, and OttoF. A black man will be President.
May 5, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hahahahaha!!!!!! I love that dry hillbilly humor.
May 5, 2008 6:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
How come you gave Clinton credit for late breaking undecideds based on past experience, but neglected past experience that polls have consistently underestimated Obama's strength in southern states?
May 5, 2008 4:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wrote months ago comparing this demographic situation to the Judgment of Solomon, where two women go before the King each claiming to be the true mother of a child and the King suggests cutting the child in half and each mother taking part.
The true mother relents and cedes out of love and true maternal passion for her infant, and the King, satisfied he has found the true mother, orders the infant given to her whole.
Of course,we are in just such a situation now, if you'll forgive the literary metaphor. These polls spell that out on some level.
One wise commenter in that thread on dailykos, however, made an interesting point about the actual historical moral of that tale. As well as being about maternal love, the Judgment of Solomon is a story about how Solomon unified Israel by bringing a sword at a crucial moment, forcing a decision about Israel's future and his own leadership.
Who loves the party more? Who is reaching out to bring us together? Which campaign has sacrificed to bring us together? Which campaign is the true mother of the child that represents the future of the Democratic Party?
It took the metaphorical sword of Solomon to move the competing factions within Israel to unify: and, yes, for that to happen, one side had to win and the other had to lose. Israel had to unify under Solomon's leadership to move forward. That was Solomon's judgment, too.
May 5, 2008 4:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Go back to Daily Obama.
This is a Clinton blog troll.
May 5, 2008 4:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Go back to little green footballs, this site isn't for Republicans.
May 5, 2008 4:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for making my point. ;)
May 5, 2008 4:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good to see you posting some here too Kid Oakland, you should post here more often.
May 5, 2008 6:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gerry Brown won a number of state contests after Bimbo Bill had become "the presumptive nominee".
Try some new Clinton Doublespeak please.
May 5, 2008 4:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm a little surprised at the SUSA poll. I would have assumed it would tighten up to show a high single digit lead for Clinton, which would put it in line with most of the other polls. Instead, it continues to show her ahead in double digits.
It's worth pointing out that SurveyUSA's final Pennsylvania poll was off by four points relative to the final margin.
Were they off in Virginia and South Carolina too? I'm starting to think SUSA has a problem polling the area where Appalachia and the South converge- states like Virginia, the Carolinas, Pennsylvania, Tennessee.
May 5, 2008 4:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Everybody was off in SC, but SUSA less so than most others (although, for the record, Zogby was closer to being correct in SC than was SUSA). SUSA's last poll in SC (released two days before voting) predicted Obama to win by 13 pts. Instead he won by 29. SUSA's last poll in VA (released two days before voting) predicted Obama to win by 22 pts. Instead he won by 28. Not that you asked, but while we are on the subject SUSA's Super Tuesday polls (released the day before voting) predicted Obama to win AL by only 2 pts, when in reality he won by 14 and for Clinton to win MO by 11 pts when in reality Obama won MO by 1 pt. In other words, SUSA has consistently under-estimated Obama's support in southern elections. This does not tell us much about IN, but it might indicate that his NC margin will be wider than is presently supposed.
May 5, 2008 4:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Clinton wins more delegates than Obama tomorrow, Obama is finished.
It really is that simple.
May 5, 2008 4:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Duly noted.
May 5, 2008 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did that not matter when, you know, Obama won 12 in a row? By 17 points or more?
May 5, 2008 9:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
It wasn't just SUSA. They were all way off in those states. There are a lot of assumptions going on under the hood when you take a poll of less than 1000 people and try to project that to the election as a whole. Sometimes the assumptions are wrong.
May 5, 2008 5:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Any idea on how the pledged delegates will actually break in these states?
This is more meaningful than popular vote counts and the type of analysis of Pennsylvania showed that Hillary's "huge" win ended up netting her 12 delegates. Same with Ohio where she neeted 9.
Wouldn't Obama's strength in historical democratic strongholds in boths states affect the delegate split just as much as the overall popular vote margin?
May 5, 2008 4:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Clinton wins more delegates than Obama tomorrow, Obama is finished.
It really is that simple.
May 5, 2008 4:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary has already lost.
It really is that simple.
May 5, 2008 5:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Hillary wins 70-80% of the vote in both states tomorrow, she has... a lifeline, nothing more.
It really is that simple. Anything less is a win for Obama and further reduces Clinton's opportunities. She'd then have to win over 80% of the vote in ALL remaining states.
May 5, 2008 5:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just stop posting the same thing over and over again. It looks stupid.
May 5, 2008 6:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Puerto Rico is not a State, and has no say in the General Election.
May 5, 2008 4:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
but but but... Hillary told me tomorrow was going to be a GAME CHANGER?! I'm so confused now...
May 5, 2008 4:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also, InsiderAdvantage has officially gone crazy. They have Obama only three points ahead of Clinton in NC, but Clinton only four points ahead of Obama in IA. Both of those margins seem too small.
May 5, 2008 4:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
IA? I thought IA was a while ago. Do you mean IN?
May 5, 2008 6:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
IA = Iowa
Did you mean IN (i.e. Indiana)...?
May 5, 2008 6:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just for the sake of argument, what if she pulls out wins in both IN and NC? Can she still "not win"? Will the SDs take notice of that and will it count, along with TX, OH and PA (and yes, Wright too), as a counterbalance to his delegate lead? Will the SDs rigidly follow the delegate math as we all seem to think they will?
Are you sure?
May 5, 2008 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Blasphemy.
May 5, 2008 4:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
They don't have to, but I think it would make too many people angry if that was their ultimate decision.
Plus, I think if Clinton's still going to win outright she'll have to do it at the convention, and with crowds of Obama and Clinton supporters thronging on the floor it's going to be 1968 redux.
May 5, 2008 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
She will win.
May 5, 2008 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
My dad can beat up your dad.
May 5, 2008 4:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
...and then he is going to sue you.
May 5, 2008 4:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
What if she wins all the remaining primaries?
What if she has a 20 pt lead in the polls in July?
What if chocolate monkeys start flying out of her butt?
Guess what all these hypotheticals have in common?
May 5, 2008 4:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are the chocolate monkeys edible?
May 5, 2008 4:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
...mmmmmm....chocolate monkeys.
May 5, 2008 4:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
OBAMA WON TEXAS
Sorry to yell but apparently Clinton supporters and trolls are selectively deaf on this issue.
I repeat: OBAMA WON TEXAS.
The only vote there is is the combined total already combined - poll and caucus votes =that is what determines the Texas delegate count.
CLINTON LOST TEXAS.
May 5, 2008 4:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tena, scream it from the rooftops. These trolls are absolutely ridiculous and living in la la land. Of course, they are helped by the media, but Jesus, surely it should have sunk in by now.
Please, Indiana and North Carolina, but her out of her misery, please. Close this thing down and let's focus on going after McCain.
May 5, 2008 4:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did Obama receive more votes than Hillary Clinton in Texas. Your sounding surprisingly like a Bush Supporter from 2000.
May 5, 2008 4:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
When you include all those people that caucused, yes he did.
May 5, 2008 5:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes he did.
What do you think caucus votes are? Who do you think it is who votes? How is it any different than voting at the booth? We had the opportunity to vote twice and by god, we did. Too damn bad about Hillary not being as popular - since she didn't get as many votes.
OBAMA WON TEXAS/CLINTON LOST
The delegates are already done, man - quit that shit.
May 5, 2008 5:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is Texas still in the union?
May 5, 2008 5:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not according to Hillary.
red states don't count, and neither do small states or swing states...
(unless she wins them!)
May 5, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
But somehow Puerto Rico counts, even though it doesn't vote in the Presidential election in November.
May 5, 2008 6:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
and Nevada
May 5, 2008 9:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
All she had to do is convince over 70% of the Superdelegates to vote for her.
If she can do that, she'll win.
The problem is, Superdelegates keep switching from her to Obama.
Her tactics aren't working!
May 5, 2008 4:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Clinton wins more delegates than Obama tomorrow, Obama is finished.
It really is that simple.
May 5, 2008 4:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
saying it over and over doesn't make it true.
Show me how. Convince me 70% of the supers switch, when ZERO have switched to Hillary so far.
Show me.
May 5, 2008 5:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Clinton wins more delegates than Obama tomorrow, Obama is finished.
It really is that simple.
May 5, 2008 5:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
And fogu knows "simple".
May 5, 2008 5:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now that is funny!
May 5, 2008 5:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why can't Hillary close the deal?
May 5, 2008 5:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gerry Brown won a number of state contests after Bimbo Bill had become "the presumptive nominee".
Try some new Clinton Doublespeak please.
May 5, 2008 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's sad how Bill has become a parody of himself.
I don't think even Bill thinks Hillary can win.
May 5, 2008 5:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Perhaps.
But the SDs are in a spot. No matter which way they break they're going to piss off approximately half their party, and a good chunk of their base. Plus many of them have their own races to think about, which no doubt are uppermost in their minds...
We carry on as if it's chipped on stone tablets that they HAVE TO FOLLOW THE DELEGATE MATH. But do they? All they HAVE to do is support the candidate they think has the best chance to win the general, period. And in some cases, who they want at the top of their own ticket.
Either choice has a substantial downside. It's not like they can avoid pain with either one. Why are we so sure that supporting Obama would be less painful?
May 5, 2008 4:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
One big decisive factor = listen up:
MONEY
He has outraised her like crazy.
and VOTES is the other biggie -how may new voters he has brought in.
Clinton is cold product!
May 5, 2008 4:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right - and he doesn't smell like he's wearing Eau de Horseshit.
May 5, 2008 5:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Because, Obama will win fairly.
In order for Hillary to win, she has to pull some shit, like getting Michigan to count, where Obama wasn't even on the ticket, and convince 70% of the supers to override the pledged delegates.
Obama can win by pissing off less Democrats.
If Hillary wins, she'll have a very hard time unifying the party, especially African Americans, the youth, and educated voters (ie, the Democratic base!)
May 5, 2008 4:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll give you a good reason they will back Obama. Look at the places where the Democratic party has the best chance of turning from red to blue. Which presidential candidate runs better in those places? Which would they rather have at the top of the ticket?
Colorado, Virginia, Minnesota, Alaska - all states where Hillary Clinton is wildly unpopular.
May 5, 2008 5:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
AND TEXAS
goddamn it.
May 5, 2008 6:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh yeah! If we keep California and turn Texas blue, there's no stopping Democrats this year, baby! 8D
May 5, 2008 6:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Final Survey USA shows Obama up by 5, 50-45. All the polls are consistent in one thing. Obama barely breaks 50%. As the de facto favorite, I think his number will not be higher, but will be lower. I think he samples like an incumbent rather than like a challenger. So I expect him to finish 1-2 points under 50%.
So it's a 51-49 or 50.5 - 49.5 narrow Clinton win!
May 5, 2008 4:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
you picked the wrong name.
Obama wins NC. It favors him, just like PA and IN favor Hillary.
You would have to have historically low African-American turnout for Hillary to even have a chance at winning NC.
May 5, 2008 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Counting on the racist vote are ya?
May 5, 2008 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
no, Hillary is.
May 5, 2008 5:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
AA vote in early voter has seen than usual turnout numbers/percentages - closer to 40% of voters, versus normal low thirties. Although that *was* before all the helpful voter turnout work done by Lamont Williams. ;-)
Early voting figures can be skewed, of course, towards those most enthusiastic. AA vote might come down toward "average" turnout models tomorrow, but there's no reason to expect ~less~ than average.
May 5, 2008 9:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
All right, SUSA or no SUSA, that margin is bullshit.
May 5, 2008 5:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
3 polls show Clinton in Indiana above 50%:
ARG: 53%
PPP: 51%
SUSA: 54%
But 4 show her below 50%
Composite Pollster: 49.7%
Inside Advantage: 48%
Zogby: 42%
Suffolk: 49%
1 poll shows Obama breaks 50% in North Carolina:...
PPP: 53%
2 poll show 50%
SUSA: 50%
ARG: 50%
3 polls show Obama below 50%
Composite: 49.9%
IA: 48%
Zogby: 48%
So it is anyone's guess for tomorrow....
I think HRC will win Indiana by 5 - 10 points
Obama will win North Carolina by 7 - 11 points
But the delegate count will be close so one victory washes out the other, however, it still puts Obama that much further ahead meaning Hillary cannot catch-up ....
This is about delegates NOT the popular vote which Obama is over 500,000 ahead of HRC; he is ahead in delegates and ahead in most states won ...
Hillary's lead in Super Delegates has narrowed to under 20.
May 6, 2008 5:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Guess which of these hypotheticals is not like the others?
May 5, 2008 4:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
"So let's assume a 55%-45% win for Hillary in Indiana. Meanwhile, Obama leads in North Carolina by almost ten, so let's assume Obama will win that state by a similar margin of 10 points."
Or, alternately, let's just say that you're being a hack and that the latest polls do not support your conclusions.
Real Clear Politics is giving Hillary only a +5 average in Indiana, so saying +10 seems more than a bit disingenuous.
We're not looking at a wash here. We're looking at Obama expanding his lead, while exhausting Hillary Clinton's last compelling argument for victory... period.
May 5, 2008 5:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Clinton wins more delegates than Obama tomorrow, Obama is finished.
It really is that simple.
May 5, 2008 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
spammer.
May 5, 2008 5:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
And that's not going to happen.
Obama is going to do *very* well in North Carolina, because the turnout there is going to be very high, especially for the Black community.
May 5, 2008 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
If that happens, we're all finished, because the earth will open up and swallow us all, rightous and fools spouting nonsense alike.
May 5, 2008 5:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOLOLOLOLOL!!!!!!
May 5, 2008 6:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
And if Obama wins more delegates tomorrow than Clinton is finished...again.
May 5, 2008 5:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I remember the night before the Texas Primary and KOS predicted Obama winning by 12% haha. He is now predicting another blowout in North Carolina. We'll see...but i'm sensing another Texas.
May 5, 2008 5:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, that makes sense...
Just like Texas, Hillary was leading in NC until the last days, when Obama got close but lost by a couple percentage points (but still won the caucus!)
May 5, 2008 5:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
That Insider Advantage you have for Indiana is old.New one out today is 48 C, 44- O. You have it in your poll tracker on the right side.
May 5, 2008 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey OttoF- Obama does better with white voters than Hillary does with AA voters. She has no support from that community. If she is the nominee - which she won't be - she needs the AA vote. And they've gone. Vamoosed ! And they're not coming back to the fold.
(I'm white by the way, but I know what's happening on the ground.)
May 5, 2008 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
And they've gone. Vamoosed ! And they're not coming back to the fold.
Wow! I guess the Dems are always going to have to have a black candidate because the AAs won't vote for a white candidate now that Barry's worked his magic. The republican dominance of the WH will continue.
May 5, 2008 8:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's not that Senator Obama "worked his magic", Clinton has managed to work her own special brand of anti-magic. I've never heard anyone say they wouldn't vote for another white person - I've heard many say they won't vote for HILLARY.
For all her efforts to whip up hatred between white people and black people - the only thing she's manged to whip up is indignation from a constituency that started out the race giving her overwhelming support. She met that indignation with scorn and it turned to anger. And that anger is Hillary's alone to bear (unless the democratic party is crazy enough to hand her an election she didn't win).
May 5, 2008 9:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's over, fans, Obamaman wins/won.
People, newspapers,tv, radio are just filling time till the inevitable....(it helps with their ratings to keep the race tight and up for grabs)
May 5, 2008 5:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I been sayin'...
May 5, 2008 6:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Me too:
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/05/the-beginning-of-the-end-or-ho.php
In order to convince people that she's still a viable candidate, Clinton needs a plausible story about how she can pull this thing off. Since March, her story has been that she can win the popular vote, get MI/FL counted, and convince enough superdels to vote for her. It's a reach, but imaginable.
If the polls are right, that story falls apart. I ran the numbers in the linked post above, using the most Clinton friendly polls out there. Unless she significantly outperforms them, she won't be able to win the popular vote. So she needs a new story. Unfortunately for her, there aren't any more good stories. If she were to be nominated without the pledged delegate count or the popular vote, or by some theoretical "nuclear" option, there would likely be riots in Denver and a civil war within the party. I can't see how it's reasonable to expect 70% of uncommitted superdelegates to sign on for that.
I'm sure that she can convince some people, but without a plausible story for her path to the nomination, there will be important voices--pundits, superdelegates, party leaders--who will stop taking her candidacy seriously. Because their voices affect the race itself, there will likely be a snowball effect where what they say makes her story even less plausible, creating more doubt among other voices.
Her campaign is in some ways ingenious, and perhaps they'll come up with a new plausible story that hasn't occurred to me. But I don't think that they have any stories left in their playbook.
May 5, 2008 6:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
That was supposed to say, "If the polls are right, that story falls apart after tomorrow."
May 5, 2008 6:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Her campaign is (has been for a while) Huckabeenian. Only a "miracle" can give her the nomination.
May 5, 2008 6:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary 'Gas-Tax' Clinton is a false prophet - and the idea that she might still win the nomination is a superstition.
May 5, 2008 6:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm listening to The Band Played Waltzing Matilda by the Pogues; far too lovely to sully with thoughts of Hillary. So everyone stop talking about her, right now.
May 5, 2008 6:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
From TPM:
The polls have shown Hillary's overall lead in Indiana to be in the mid-single digits. But some polls suggest that late deciders will break her way, and precedent suggests the same, given that this happened in both Ohio and Pennsylvania. So let's assume a 55%-45% win for Hillary in Indiana.
Meanwhile, Obama leads in North Carolina by almost ten, so let's assume Obama will win that state by a similar margin of 10 points.
If that happens, our calculations suggest that Obama will walk away with a slight edge for the night of roughly 95 pledged delegates to Hillary's 92. That's because Indiana has 72 delegates, which would roughly break down to 40 for Hillary and 32 for Obama. And North Carolina has 115 delegates, which would roughly break down to 63 for Obama and 52 for Hillary.
What about the popular vote? Going by Chuck Todd's projections for the total popular votes in these two states, Obama -- assuming a roughly 10-point margin in both states -- would gain a net popular vote victory for the night of about 60,000 votes.
In short, the night could end with little change in the delegate or popular vote margins between the two Dems. This would allow Hillary to argue that the contest should continue, and enable her to keep sowing doubts with the super-dels by asking why he can't "close the deal."
But this would also bring Obama that much closer to the nomination by making it that much harder for Hillary to ever reach 2,025 delegates -- while bringing himself closer to that magic number.
The latest polls, along with a poll-of-polls bottom line, after the jump.
May 5, 2008 8:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
There's something about a woman accusing a man of "not closing the deal" that ranks up there with a man telling a woman something to the effect of "it's okay, you've looked worse."
Or maybe, "You're likeable enough, Hillary." Obama really needs to get past this truth-telling habit of his. It's unbecoming.
Emasculating Hillary has become the caricature the GOP invented back in the '90s. Maybe those Hillary nutcrackers I see in the oddity shop downtown are more poignant than I realized.
May 5, 2008 8:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Unless something even more ridiculous than the already expected ridiculous voter turnout happens tomorrow...
500,000ish early votes have been cast in North Carolina. That's about 25% of the anticipated (high end) total. Already more than the 2006 midterm.
Based on current polling where early voters have been sampled, those votes have been splitting at least 20% for Obama. Even if you figure a "Wilder effect," I'm going to say that's a 15% lead for Obama before the first vote is cast tomorrow.
If turnout projection models hold, and the rest of the NC votes split 50/50 for Hillary/Obama - an unlikely happening, based on current projections - Obama still wins by 5% (52-47) on early votes alone.
No way is Hillary Clinton winning in North Carolina, unless turnout is HUGE, the day goes overwhelmingly Clinton, or the Eastern half of the state breaks off and falls into the Atlantic. I'm really hoping none of those happen, but I'm not expecting that. But we still gots to work the turnout tomorrow, because I want an NC blowout.
May 5, 2008 8:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think tomorrow will not change the outlook or outcome.
It is my expectation that Obama will end the primary season June 3 with a pledged delegate margin of about a hundred votes.
Shortly thereafter, I hope the DNC and Obama's campaign will announce they will recommend that the credentials committee seat the Florida and Michigan delegations selected at their state conventions, giving Clinton a 60 net delegate gain. Obama will continue to lead the total pledged delegate count by about 40 votes.
I think that a few hundred superdelegates will announce their committment to vote for Obama at the convention. Obama will be the presumptive nominee, AND Michigan and Florida will have been counted in the total.
If the situations were reversed, and Clinton was ahead by any number of pledged delegates, she would be the nominee. To do anything else would leave her supporters feeling severely alienated and cheated. The Democrats won't do that to either side. Since Obama will almost certainly be in the lead, he will be the nominee.
I hope that the Democrats can then unite around Obama, our nominee, and win in November.
May 5, 2008 10:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Olbermann hilariously summarizes the Clinton campaign's moving goalposts:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L9qd-P2bIiY
May 5, 2008 10:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Hillary wins the nomination, riding a wave of racist sentiment and fear, as fanned by herself and her horrid husband over the past several months, Democrats will have lost the war.
And you can bet they'll lose the White House.
Ask any journalist worth his or her salt, and they will tell you that Bill has 2, maybe 3, mistresses at the moment. One's in Canada--NAFTA, anyone?
No wonder Hillary is looking increasingly unglued.
May 5, 2008 11:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey wait a minute guys I am a Bonified Republican and I declared my support for OBAMA weeks ago!!!
Does that remark about NO Reps include me too?I think he wins in NC and may WIN narrowly in Indiana!!!
May 6, 2008 12:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Then she'll get the delegation from FL and MI credentialed, because she a working-class girl who likes pick-up trucks, coffee, and whiskey (not in that order!!!) She's not some hoighty-toighty multi-millionaire elitist from an Ivy league law school like Obama. She's downhome country who likes herself some NASCAR and gettin' drunk with the boys. But not so drunk that she can't answer the phone at 3:00 AM. Sure, she may slur a little, but she'll know that she'll need to push the button and obliterate Ahmadinnerjacket. It's what she does best.
Best post this month - absolutely hilarious because it accurately reflects the schitzphrenia of campaign machine, which is truly pulling out all the stops! LOL
May 6, 2008 1:22 AM | Reply | Permalink