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New GOP Attack Ad Suggests Republican Incumbent Senator Is Vulnerable
If this new attack ad from GOP Senator Gordon Smith is any indication, he may recognize that he's facing a tough reelection fight and that the Dems have a shot at picking up this plum Oregon Senate seat this fall.
What's particularly interesting about this attack ad is that Smith doesn't know who is opponent is yet.
Jeff Merkley, the state House speaker and the target of this ad, is still locked in a tough fight against attorney Steve Novick for next week's primary. So the attempt by Smith to drive up Merkley's negatives at this point could be a sign that he'd rather face Novick.
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Dems really need to pick this Oregon Senate seat up in November.
May 15, 2008 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, attacking who you percieve to be the stronger fall candidate has worked wonders for the Repubicans so far this primary.
May 15, 2008 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope they don't try to tie the Democratic candidates to Obama, that never works!
snark
May 15, 2008 12:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Callifornia Supreme Court decision on gay marriage due out today at 10:00 AM PDT.
May 15, 2008 12:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
California Supreme Court approves gay marriage!!
May 15, 2008 1:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
As an Oregonian political wonk I can tell you that almost all political insiders here believe that Steve Novick has the best chance to defeat Senator Smith in the General. This commercial is one of two things: An attempt by Smith to have rank and file Dems rally behind Merkely who Smith views as the weaker opponent, or a really stupid waste of money.
May 15, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe the rank and file Dems would guess that Smith was trying to pull a fast one by trying to get them to shift to Merkley, and actually gravitate to Novick?.... but then, maybe, that was Smith's plan all along!
:D
May 15, 2008 4:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
The California Supreme court is considered very conservative. It consists of seven Justices, six of whom were appointed by Republicans. The ruling in favor of gay marriage today was a split ruling, 4 to 3.
May 15, 2008 1:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
This strategy actually worked well for Gray Davis way-back-when. He pummeled the Republican candidate he didn't want to run against in the primary and then took the general election in a walk. (Only to be run out of office two years later...).
May 15, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is the 2nd ad Smith has been running here, he has had another one running, though maybe this one replaces it, where he attacks BOTH Novick and Merkley in the same ad, which I thought was a novel concept.
May 15, 2008 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Notice the tagline. An incumbent is running against "More of the Same" when "Its Time for a change."
Does this work? Can an incumbent run as an outsider?
May 15, 2008 2:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I noticed that too...
I wouldn't be surprised if this ad backfires, and actually gets Jeff Merkley elected.
This is going to be a GREAT year.
May 15, 2008 2:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Though he very recently came out against the Bush Iraq war policies, Smith has been a lackluster, do nothing Senator, basically just rubber-stamping Bush. He is very vulnerable here in this democratic, pragmatic state, and either opponent should be able to do well against him.
This would definitely be a good race to benefit from some national funding this fall. Oregon and everyone deserves better in the US Senate.
May 15, 2008 3:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gordo may think Merkley is the stronger candidate, but I think he's wrong. Merkley is a pretty run of the mill candidate - he's a good Democrat, but against Gordon Smith he is just another politian. Novick, on the other hand is in the Paul Wellstone / Tom McCall mode - an outsider who can work on the inside but who doesn't want to be one of the gang.
Besides, Novick is 10 times as smart as Gordo - can't wait to see them debate (so the Gord probably won't.)
May 15, 2008 3:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
"... when it's time for a change."
I think that's the first time I ever heard those words in an incumbent's ad. Go, Smith!
No, just go.
May 15, 2008 4:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Boy, if this is the kind of junk ad Gordon Smith is wasting his money on, chalk another Senate seat for the Democrats!
May 15, 2008 4:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm an Oregon resident who definitely wants to beat Gordon Smith in November, and I believe either Democrat has a decent chance. Here's my take on the primary - if you think McCain will be president, vote for Novick. He'll fight hard against funding the war and to protect our civil liberties. He would be a forceful opponent of bad Cabinet, Supreme Court, and other Federal appointees.
But if you think Obama will win the presidency, vote for Merkley. He will get things done in Congress. He'll work hard for universal health care, fairer tax policies, and decent treatment for our veterans and he has the experience to make those things happen.
I'm an optimist - I voted for Merkley.
May 15, 2008 7:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Steve for Senate!
May 15, 2008 9:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm really tired of people trying to decipher Republican talking points.
John Kerry wasn't the strongest candidate in 2004, but Bush solidified the Dems nod by attacking him in the primary and causing Democrats to rally around him.
I'm an Oregonian Democrat and think that Steve Novick is the strongest opponent that we can nominate to take on Gordon Smith.
I don't look to the Republicans to help make my choice in an election. Vote Hook!
May 15, 2008 9:35 PM | Reply | Permalink