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More Polls Suggest Wright Is Hurting Obama

A new poll of Indiana from local firm TeleResearch further suggests that Jeremiah Wright has been hurting Barack Obama over the last few days. The top-line result is Hillary 48%, Obama 38%.

But it's in the internals that things get very interesting.

The survey was conducted from April 25-29, with a sample of 943 Democratic primary voters and a margin of error of ±3.3%. On the first day of the sample Obama, Clinton only led 45%-43%, and Obama had a 20-point lead among men. By the final day of sampling, Clinton took a four-point lead with men.

The difference: The poll was conducted over the same period of time as the re-emergence of Wright.

Meanwhile, today's Gallup tracking poll has Hillary taking a 47%-43% lead over Obama.

While that's within the margin of error, it's interesting to point out the last time she managed anything more than a one-point lead in Gallup: The previous occasion that Obama had to deal with Wright.


Comments (135)

Dang, that was my post.

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I agree. That is totally your post. TPM Election Central should take stock in that.

I was posting this to reply to Fogu2 in the last thread and it said the blog owner was holding it.

You horses-asses put this poll up, and scrutinize the "internals", when the other local outfit, Howey-Gauge had Obama up 2 points yesterday, and it got absolutely ZERO coverage on TPM (aside from a listing on the poll tracker)

What gives?

I don't second the "horses ass" part of this comment, but why the emphasis on this poll, and no discussion on the Howey-Gauge poll?

Sorry, I'm just at wits end with what seems like slanted coverage. I have also been accused of being a horse's ass, and it stung, but I grew from it.

I feel your pain. Really.

Here's something to cheer you up, though. You know Hillary's claim about "I won the big states and therefore, that makes me stronger in the GE!!@##!!"?

Guess what? Maybe that isn't true:

Poll of New Jersey

That and CA polls showing Barack beating Hillary in a match vs. McCain are heartening. So, too is the Superdel rollout. Wright may have an impact on next Tuesday, but the fundamental truths of this election remain the same. Obama winning, Hillary losing. Superdelegates hold her only path to the nomination, and they are leaking slowly to Obama.

I feel better.

Any chance we'd see a front page TPM post on these polls?

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Its not slanted coverage; its an avalanche of overwhelingly negative news.

I know -- I know -- Joe Andrew is a game changer . . .

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Relax, it's TPM,....the converage is always slanted.
Obama could walk on water one day, and TPM would have "Hillary crosses stream in row-boat" as the headline. Take it for what it is; biased coverage from wishful thinkers.

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I wonder if Tuesday was particularly bad for Obama in the Gallup poll, and that as Sunday and Monday dropped out of the tracking it's what's caused his numbers to edge lower. I'd imagine he wasn't quite up to par on Wednesday, either.

Still, Obama has closed the book on Wright about as forcefully as he can. The pundits are the ones continuing to flog the issue, which just proves again that Tim Russert, Wolf Blitzer, and Campbell Brown should all be thrown into the Potomac River with concrete shoes on their feet.

What is killing the messenger ("The pundits are the ones continuing to flog the issue, which just proves again that Tim Russert, Wolf Blitzer, and Campbell Brown should all be thrown into the Potomac River with concrete shoes on their feet.") going to gain you? A 24% change, if substantiated is more than these few folks can cause and anyway, this is self-inflicted by Obama himself, not by the media who have coddled him throughout the campaign.

Matthew

They always shoot the messenger on bad news for Obama.

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Yeah. Self-inflicted. Obama really believes that the US government is responsible for 9/11 and the spread of AIDS. Everyone agrees with what their preachers say, even when they're not present to hear the sermons.

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I don't care if it gets me anything. I hate the messengers regardless of the message they bring.

I would vote for Clinton even if she manages to steal the nomination, if she were ever to punch Tim Russert on national television.

The fourth estate has become a threat to our democracy.

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You call the last month of coverage 'coddling'?

The only candidate the media's coddled is John McCain. They've been sucking his cock this entire election season.

A 24% shift, incredible! This type of change is bound to start showing up in other polls.

Matthew

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That's the problem with polls done over four days. There's a bounce toward Clinton when the Wright controversy was at its peak. But it doesn't catch the natural flow back after Obama's well-received response.

"A 24% shift, incredible! This type of change is bound to start showing up in other polls."

Crappy polls, sure.

24%. Gee-willikers! That should start showing up in the delegate count, right? Right? Hello?

wright is such a non-issue. it really does baffle me that in a time when we face two wars, torture, a recession, a pending world-wide climate disaster, and a global food shortage, that people really think someone's pastor should be a decisive issue.

it's incredibly disheartening to me. I'd like to blam the media's non-stop coverage, in fact, i've been telling myself that the only reason people care about wright is because the media makes it an issue, but regardless of the reasons, its just depressing.

America will get what it deserves. If Americans let a man like Wright distract us and prevent us from electing a man who really has the potential to change politics forever, well...then i guess we'll get the future we picked for ourselves, even if it means a world of perpetual war and famine and rising sea levels and global warming.

This is, a democracy, after all, still, if barely. The choice is ours.

That is not the worst part of it. The worst part is the appalling number of democrats who are egging it on. I can understand why republicans should like to dwell on the nonsensical and trivial; what else have they got? That the supporters of Clinton (ostensibly a democrat) should be cheered by this, however, simply beggars belief. Clinton has good policy proposals which would, if enacted, create good outcomes for Americans. Why should we rather focus the race on Wright or flag pins or gas tax holiday flim-flammery?

If we try to out republican the republicans we will lose. Ceding home field advantage to John McCain's ilk is an incredibly short sighted strategy and it makes a body want to tear his hair out to see folks like Matthew Weaver and Otto F (and Hillary Clinton and Howard Wolfson) cheering such inanity on.

One way that Clinton gets the nomination is by knocking Obama out of the race because of electability issues--Obama has served them up on a silver platter. Anyway, if I recall correctly, he won his first election doing the same thing so this is nothing new to Obama. It is simply politics and Clinton is a survior. Does Obama and his supporters have the stomach for this?

Plus, while Obama is mired in problems of his own making, Clinton is have a very positive week.

Matthew

Fair enough, I suppose. Given that you want John McCain, I can hardly blame you for advancing talking points that favor John McCain's interests. It is, however, still disappointing to see Sen Clinton and Howard Wolfson indulging in this inanity.

If she's having a positive week, why is Obama's delegate lead increasing?

You recall incorrectly.

Did anyone ask LIncoln about the beliefs of his pastor? Or Roosevelt, or Washington? Or any other presidential candidate?

To me, a belief in god is about as ridiculous as believing the american govt caused aids, so when I heard wright say "God Damn America, Thats in the bible." I laughed because i thought it was hysterically funny(first of all the bible predates america by roughly 2000 years, so i doubt "God Damn America" is in there) but i never take any religious figures seriously anyway, whether they be fallwell or robertson, or graham or parsley or that guy with the mega church with horse teeth whose on cnbc on weekends, or even the friggin' Pope. But i'm in the minority on that.

I mean, this really is such a trivial issue when compared to the real problems we face. I actually get a pang in my stomach when i see the number of people who are persuaded by this bullshit manufactured issue.

I just can't help but think how much better off we'd all be if we kept god and politics seperate as the founders intended.

Obama's church, his former pastor, is pretty irrelevant to the type of president he'll be and the type of policies he'll implement. And I know i'll probably take heat for this, but i really believe that if Obama was white, this wouldn't be an issue. John Hagee, who is white, has said some pretty inflamible, disgusting, divisive things and no one's holding John McCain accountable for him. Why the double standard, i wonder. Is it racial? I'm sure for the fox news crowd it is, but for the rest of it, maybe its because there is nothing else on Obama. They've got no dirt, no affairs, no shady practices, all they have is a wack job former preacher, so they're running with it. For reasons unknown to me.

I just wish for once we could have a political debate about the serious issues we face. Not the process, or politics. But Issues. And i really thought that Barack Obama would give us that campaign. And much to his credit, he's tried.

But political opponents and the corporate media have decided its more important to sensationalize their news coverage, much to the disservice of America.

Lincoln didn't even go to church. He was non-religious.

well then he would never be elected in today's environment.

that should tell you how toxic its become.

That is not the worst part of it. The worst part is the appalling number of democrats who are egging it on. I can understand why republicans should like to dwell on the nonsensical and trivial; what else have they got? That the supporters of Clinton (ostensibly a democrat) should be cheered by this, however, simply beggars belief. Clinton has good policy proposals which would, if enacted, create good outcomes for Americans. Why should we rather focus the race on Wright or flag pins or gas tax holiday flim-flammery?
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Umm, Why would her supporters do that (unless she lead them there). I understand that you are trying to be fair but throwing her supporters under the bus (as it were) without nary a word about her behaviour is bit of hypocritical, isn't it ?

If you keep reading, past the paragraph you cited and into the next, you would see that I do take issue with Sen Clinton herself.

Yes, I see it now, Greg.

Looks like, we were on a time lock.

I am really starting the not like TPM
Election Central.

How much does Hill pay you to be so one sided.

pffffffft I am loosing respect for you

Are you kidding me? Josh just wrote a scathing post about Clinton campaign, and you think that this site is anti-Obama campaign.

For crying out loud. It's just a friggin' poll report on a blog in the internet. It has no impact on the race. If anything it would help Obama by lowering the expectations.

But you don't care and no one cares because everyone on this site has lost the ability to tell the difference between up and down.

The majority of my comments and posts have now become critical of Obama supporters. And I'm a hard-core Obama supporter! I'm even organizing a fundraiser to help him in some way other than shouting my support into the blogosphere.

But I cannot stand the goddamn whinging and hate-filled rants of many of my fellow Obama supporters lately. Many of you have lost any sense of objective perspective. And yet you yell at TPM as if it's the journalists and not you who have lost your goddamn heads.

I know everyone's anxious, but can we have just a little bit of humility, self-criticism, and perspective, some realization that this is not an epic battle between good and evil with everyone in the world on one side or the other.

Sorry for the rant statusquomustgo. It wasnt't really directed at you though your comment set it off.

Genghis. I hereby denounce and reject your avatar pandering.

We're all feeling the strain. And all these different polls that ultimately don't tell us much are just like riding bare butted down a sandpaper slide. It's enough to make anybody crazy.

Can we have that on film?

Thanks, O=RBoUSPYWc and Phoebe, for the avatar denunciation and sandpaper imagery. I needed that. Well, maybe not the sandpaper imagery.

Y'know, your flashing polyester makes it kinda hard to take your woodshed act seriously....

glad to be of service to you Genghis...

I believe that I am just fed up with all
this.

I never did say who I was for... I am sick
of the 10 stories about the O'Reilly's new
girlfriend to 1 story about anyone else.

I admire your equanimity, dear Genghis. My own mind is sadly drifting in exactly the opposite direction. I used to find all of the grousing about bias irksome, but I find myself agreeing with it increasingly. This is probably a sign that I should leave the blog and get back to laying mulch around my wife's irises.

I'm beginning to lean from the red shirt to the blue shirt.

red shirt

greeen shirt

red shirt

green shirt...


flip flopper!

uhhhhh. Hillary is..well more like WAS, having a good week. As well as last week. So obviously more news to that point.

I don't see a problem with it personally. I don't want to see "Obama is great" all day. All that does is lie to your own perceptions.

The truth is, not ALOT has changed. The same immaturity still resides. Hillary is doing what EVER she can, no matter what she has to say or do to stay in this thing. And Obama is to still prove he knows what he is doing, is a good person, not just a good "black" person, etc etc. The list goes on.

The gas tax holiday and Magnaquench have the potential to seriously impact Clinton and bring the subject back to the issues....I hope.

Well, if you look inside the polls you would see that Wright has the whites.

It boggles the mind that any SD would support Obama after these polls.

It is like they want to lose.

Oh well, blog on .

Some Democrats seek out the losing candidate. It's like the Washington Redskins, all the good playing they do, in the end they find a way to lose, often spectacularly.

Matthew

Losing requires that the other team start outscoring you. Obama is pulling even further ahead in the delegate count.

Make that Wright has lost the whites.

Amazing. "Wright has lost the whites". Truly amazing.

Look inside the polls.

It is true and obvious.

Wright isn't running for anything, gotalife.

Apparently he thinks that Wright is running on a unity ticket with Hagee.

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I know one thing it is coming up on the 48 hour time frame when Hillary has consistently dropped some riDICUulous bombshell to take control of the news cycle leading into the Tuesday vote and it is always negative.

I hope Obama is prepared to drop something negative on her.

Not much to worry about for Obama here. The poll was taken over a five-day span where, initially, Wright was not a HUGE issue and things were tight (as all other contemporaneous polls suggested), but where during the last 2-3 days, the nets were "All Wright All the Time!" and there had been little to no response to Obama's presser on the issue. Give it a few days, and see whether a new poll reflects internals with people coming back into the fold.

Why am I supposed to care, again, about Reverend Wright? I keep forgetting why this is supposedly a salient issue in deciding who the Democratic Nominee should be.....

Most polls also show that Clinton is hurt by the Clinton's. Its a fatal blow to Clinton that she happens to be Clinton and married to Clinton. All that lying and bad policy really has hurt Clinton in the polls.

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All I know is that it is coming up on that 48 hour news cycle where Clinton has consistently dropped some negative bombshell into the press that can't be vetted before Tuesday.

I hope Obama has something waiting to drop on Hillary tomorrow that takes control of the news cycle.

Exactly. Rev. Wright knew he would have trouble wooing white voters from the get-go, so he decided that he wouldn't run for office, and would remain a pastor. Idiot.

I'm not sure what all of the hand-waving here is all about.

I think this drop is completely expected after everything that has been going on since Friday and the non-stop press coverage. Obama made his statement on Tuesday, and I fully expect him to start tracking upwards again as all of the hoopla begins to subside.

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Am I correct that this polls shows a 67-33 female-male gender split?

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To clarify: it looks to me as though women make up 67% of the poll.

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It also looks as though 48-38 is simply the result for the last day of the poll and not a product of all the days put together.

67% to 33% split, female to male. Hey, that seems about right, doesn't it?

And the 48-38 is the last day (April 29, with AllWright, AllTheTime in full glory)....

Man stop it with these polls!

Didn't Josh come up with anything yet on that robocall thing to tie someone to someone who knows someone that knows the Clintons? It's been on the front page for two days. Sheesh.

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gallup is 49% to 45% hillary over obama.

Good thing Hillary isn't a Republican, we would be screwed! Screwed I tell you!

I have not seen anything in the news to suggest the issue about Wright is behind Obama. In fact, I see media asking where Wright is and suspect we'll likely see him pop up maybe between now and Tuesday. Beyond Obama's dismissal of Wright on Tuesday, he hasn't done much this week.

Clinton on the other hand, had a spectacular visit on O'Reilly last night and has the balance of her interview their tonight. Plus, the gas tax suspension, even if pandering, is helping her and McCain at cost to Obama. He might hold the high ground on analysis of the gas tax, but pocketbook voters, I suspect, will prefer Clinton and McCain giving them hard dollars and cents.

I anticipate we will see more polls begin to reflect what this one shows. Obama is increasingly at risk of knockout votes next Tuesday--IN is now likely Clinton and if NC is either a close tie or goes to Clinton, Obama will face serious electability questions next Wednesday morning.

Matthew

"Obama will face serious electability questions next Wednesday morning."

Its a shame that the supers who are flocking to Obama don't believe your hamfisted theories..

Clinton on the other hand, had a spectacular visit on O'Reilly last night and has the balance of her interview their tonight.

"You're just like me." -- Bill O'Reilly to Hillary Clinton

You must be so proud.

The first sentence was meant as a blockquote from the ineffable Matthew Weaver.

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We know that on the day Obama announced his bid for the presidency he was aware of the controversial nature of Jeremiah Wright's views and comments, which is why Obama did not allow Wright to come upstairs after the two prayed together and join Obama on the stage as he announced. That an article lambasting Wright had already been published is well established, and Obama has been quoted referring to it and saying that Wright was too controversial. As late as last March Jeremiah Wright was still a member of the Obama campaign team. He was only removed from Obama's religious advisory council when the media storm over Wright broke. Surely to a lot of people do not find it credible that a man as intelligent as Obama was unaware of exactly who Wright was for all those years that they were very closely associated. Surely a lot of people see all this attempt Obama is making to distance himself from his pastor, mentor, friend and associate as simply a smoke screen and politics as usual. Surely a lot of people worry that instead of being a uniter, Obama is further dividing the races in America. Rather than trashing the American people for falling for anti-Obama hype, his supporters should give them some credit for their common sense.

"Surely a lot of people worry that instead of being a uniter, Obama is further dividing the races in America."

Surely the only people who care about this are the media, republicans, and sorry Hillary supporters who have long understood that their candidate doesn't have a snowballs chance in hell of wining.

Shorter Otto: WRIGHT WRIGHT WRIGHT WRIGHT WRIGHT!

Obama is a Wright wing candidate.

I agree, Otto. Quite a few people believe that the man who just last month spoke about understanding that racial tensions exist and about ways to move on beyond that and the betterment of society when everyone works towards the goal with forgiveness and openmindedness is trying to "divide the nation."

It makes no sense to believe that, but they do.

Also, I believe I already mentioned it but in interest of not having the rest of your argument knocked down just because some of the details you give are completely false, I wanted to point out the Rolling Stone article that originally got Wright to be "disinvited" from Obama's announcement a bit over a year ago contained some quite mild rhetoric which was nevertheless considered to possibly cause a distraction. I understand that the right wing would like to conflate everything possible under the blanket of "controversial statement" but you should be careful to not give them such a false opening.

See, "cats are better than dogs" is a mildly controversial statement. "Hitler sure was a swell guy" is a very controversial statement. So there are degrees.

Incidentally, I seem to recall that you at one point repudiated Clinton because she has not in any way distanced herself from the main figure of her fundamentalist Christian sect "the Fellowship" who has spoken--and continues to speak--admiringly of Hitler and Stalin's tactics, am I correct?

--BULLETIN

This reporter has just interviewed Barack Hussein Obama's barber. Shocking! This is guaranteed to bring Obama down to earth. Watch FoxNews for the details. But, a teaser: Senator Barack Hussein Obama's barber has a great aunt who came from Africa, and is believed by that barber to have been a Muslim.

I hope everyone is ready for Obama to lose Indiana by a Pennsylvania-esque margin next week. It's going to sting, but life will go on.
Oh yeah, "God bless" the rich people. That damn elitist Obama!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N64fDLplBfQ

Rush re-starts Operation Chaos, Obama numbers to drop further!


Per Rush:
Operation Chaos is back at full speed, and we have no change in direction, orders from headquarters remain exactly what they are: You are to go out and sustain the Democrat primary season by virtue of voting for Hillary Clinton. Nothing has changed, ladies and gentlemen, nothing whatsoever.

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God, I fucking hate Rush Limbaugh. He hates America, and I wish he personally hated me, because I'd take it as a sign of my good character.

Ah, the truth of your associations reveals much, Mr. Player.

Quinnipiac: Clinton Shows Strength in Swing States
The new Quinnipiac Swing State Poll shows Sen. Hillary Clinton riding strong support among white working class voters to beat Sen. John McCain in three key swing states -- Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

However, if Obama is the Democratic nominee, he's in a tight race with McCain in Florida and Ohio, but takes Pennsylvania.

Florida: Clinton 49%, McCain 41%; McCain 44%, Obama 43%

Ohio: Clinton 48%, McCain 38%; McCain 43%, Obama 42%

Pennsylvania: Clinton 51%, McCain 37%; Obama 47%, McCain 38%

Said pollster Peter Brown: "If the super delegates are looking at electability, these results could be a shot in the arm for Sen. Clinton. No one has won the White House since 1960 without carrying two of these three swing states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. And she clearly is running much better against Sen. McCain than is Sen. Obama, at least for now."

It boggles the mind why any super will go with Obama at this time.

As Joseph Andrew stated just today in his lengthy letter announcing his split from Hillary:

Innuendo is easy. The truth is hard.

Sound bites are easy. Solutions are hard.

Spin is simple and easy. Struggling with facts is complicated and hard.


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dear tpm, after eight weeks of racially tinged, mccarthyist, guilt bt association media swiftboating. after eight weeks of fighting a two front battle against two candidates both within and without the party. two candidates without ethical barometers but a wealth of influential pals. after eight weeks of a telling alliance of paul krugman and sean hannitty and all the stephanopolouses in between, .....OBAMA POLL NUMBERS ARE FINALLY FALLING...thank god! the nigger was actually begining to make people think he could be president. imagine that! USA! USA! USA! USA! USA! white power!

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lol, pretty much. If McCain somehow beats Obama in November (not likely) it will be 100% because of the media. They have gone out of their way to take down Obama, and they aren't even pretending not to anymore.

Where is SNL when you need them? If they made a big deal out of some nonexistent perceived favoritism at a debate I'd love to see what they'd do now. The media waterboarding Obama while Hillary and McCain make out? That would be appropriate I think, because that is basically what is going on.

I do love that no one ever seems to point out that he has been taking a nonstop beating for the last two months from the Republicans, the Democrats (well, Hillary) and the media. Any other candidate would have been out long ago, but Obama is barely hurt by it.

Anyway, I'm sick of this shit, especially the media. It seems like they are just turning themselves into a caricature of the media now. It is a circus. It is pathetic.

LOL!

Great snark, dude.

CT Voter and LuxVeritas,

Are you both seriously suggesting as an Obama supporter that you endorse the derogatory language and mindset shared by andyfrombrooklyn?!

Matthew

Irony is lost on you, isn't it?

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hey otto f ...drop dead!

Now that is funny!

Still lame.

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Most polls also show that Clinton is hurt by the Clinton's. Its a fatal blow to Clinton that she happens to be Clinton and married to Clinton. All that lying and bad policy really has hurt Clinton in the polls.

Think about what it's doing to Chelsea! She has to live most of her life in a fishbowl with them as her parents. Poor kid, she'll be lucky to find a job when this is all over. Just like Monica Lewinsky.

You and the cartoonist well portray the Death stage of baptism. But don't forget that it inherently implies Resurrection as well.

You're right, Eric. Anything less than a 15 pt win for Clinton in Indiana will raise serious electability questions for her.

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15%!!!

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I'm a clinton supporter but 67% female vote shown in the cross-tab in this poll is just crazy. At most you can hope for 60-61%. 67 is just way out there.