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Key Findings From Early Exit Polls

The early exits show:

* Seventeen percent in Indiana and 14% in North Carolina decided in last three days.

* The economy is the major driving issue, with 65% In Indiana saying it was the most important issue, and 60% saying the same in North Carolina. Unsurprisingly, Hillary won among these voters in Indiana, and Obama won among them in NC.

* Voters in both states pretty much split evenly on the question of whether Wright was important in their vote.

* More voters blamed Hillary for negative campaigning -- 63% of Indiana voters and 67 % of North Carolina voters thought Clinton attacked Obama unfairly. Only 43 % in Indiana and 40% in North Carolina thought the reverse.

Meanwhile, Marc Ambinder looks at some more numbers and concludes that "the polarization within the Democratic Party has reached critical levels."

We'll be blogging the results tonight right here. All the polls in Indiana will be closed by 7 P.M., and in North Carolina they'll be closed by 7:30.

Late Update: A detailed breakdown of the numbers showing Dem polarization is here.


Comments (79)

Meanwhile, Marc Ambinder looks at some of the numbers and concludes that "the polarization within the Democratic Party has reached critical levels."

Thanks for the analysis, Captain Obvious!

BREAKING: Water Wet When Handled

LOL

I think the key point is that it's getting worse, and quickly. This is turning into a slow motion train wreck. No one with two working brain cells is buying into the fiction that Hillary Clinton actually has a chance to win the nomination. It's past time for the party leaders to step in and end this charade. They need to have a talk with Clinton's big money people and tell them that she's lost and there's nothing they can do about it. They need to get the superdelegates to stop diddling around and announce. Enough, already. If they don't get control of this process soon we may be watching the inauguration of President McCain next January.

Sargent's a sad case isn't he.

Well, I think it's gonna git worse before it gets better. Obama's headed for a landslide in NC with nearly 2 million votes cast.

Watch for the CA superdelegates
Watch Hillary SD defections

As for Greg Sargent....he doesn't have much of a future.

Enjoy his pain while you can

What a simp

No, I wasn't talking about Greg, but Marc Ambinder. I guess I should have been more clear.

What praytell does that make Greg Sargent.

For those of us who do not suffer fools gladly, this one's been a special pain in my ass

Here's hoping that the late exit polls are closer to reality this time than they have been in the previous races. I would really love for Obama's 20+ margin in NC to be real (even as I suspect that it is not).

20%? Where'd you get that figure? HuPo says it's 12%.


Deeper in HuffPo is another round of exit polls showing NC at Obama-60%/Clinton-38%.

Thanks!

CNN displayed an exit poll that shows HRC getting 6 and 8% of the AA vote in NC and IN respectively. Would someone please tell me how is she going to win in Nov without the AA vote?

The press doesn't care about black voters. Neither does Clinton. It's all about white working class voters these days. Didn't you get the memo?

Nope didnt get that memo i was ducking the sniper fire at the time it was sent.

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Is she losing the AA vote because she's engaged in gimmickery and pandering or because she's running against an AA?

Well she had the AA vote early on, but once Bubba started talking out of his cigar about race, the AA's bolted.

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I understand that a majority of AA voters that were supporting Clinton have switched to Obama, but who's to say that they wouldn't still vote for a Democrat in the Fall?

Check this excellent post out: http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/05/hillary-clinton-has-a-palmore.php

Short answer: She and Bill have been running a sophisticated code campaign that's peeled off a certain percentage of white voters who've got some issues with any black guy.

She cannot win without them. Somehow, however, the fact that she is getting white working class voters means that she is "electable" while he is not. I must have missed the part of the constitution where it is set out that working class white votes count but black votes do not. Indeed, it seems that a lot of us missed that part.

It was in the Constitution, but it was changed. They had a war over it and everything. It was in all the papers.

"More voters blamed HIllary for negative campaigning -- 63% of Indiana voters and 67 % of North Carolina voters thought Clinton attacked Obama unfairly. Only 43 % in Indiana and 40% in North Carolina thought the reverse."

Big victory for Obama the Campaigner. He kept it professional, despite Sen Hillary Harpy Strangelove Deny-ella Clinton.

She's not.

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By asking the question about Rev. Wright, just keeps the issue alive. What is the point? Are people voting on a candiate by principle or by religion?

The MSM is tired of it. It will be old news soon enough.

Here's the thing; the economy has turned sour. Things are bad for Joe Sixpack and getting worse. This all because of gas prices and OPEC.

We need Hillery as president to fix these problems. She's going to give us a holiday that everyone will like: a gas tax holiday. We want to keep some of the money for ourselves and not give it over to greedy oil companies.

She will obliterate OPEC. It's not fair that these countries sit on oil that was meant for us. It's ours.

Hillery is exactly kind of downhome country gal that we need in office. She'll drink McCain under the table, and we all know Obama only drinks OJ like a little school girl. We don't need Obama, an elite multi-millionaire graduate of a hoighty toity Ivy league law school. We need something different, like Hillery.

Hillery '08!!! DAMN STRAIGHT!!!!

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Long time lurker...just started posting.

Why do Clinton supporters feel the need to get on the soapbox and campaign for her with blatant politicking? That is not to imply that the Obamaniacs on here are agendaless (that's a word); I just don't see the same "pull the string on the back" posts.

I think 'afferent input' is satirical.

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I know that, I was commenting on his satire...because it's pointedly accurate.

D'oh! Carry on.

Because Sen Clinton's campaign barely inspires a trip to the loo?

I think a number of the "Clinton supporters" are actually Republicans. It's just that you can't tell the difference between a Clinton supporter and a Republican.

Another fab performance!

I understand Hillary has a secret plan for white voters to get FREE gas.

Beans?

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He has almost 40% of Clinton voters saying they wouldn't vote for Obama in the general. What he doesn't point out is the number of them who are republicans trying to prolong the primary process.
And you can bet the MSM isn't going to point that out either. What's particularly frustrating is that neither will Obama and his campaign if past history is any guide.

Obamic conspiracy plot paranoia!

to the ER...stat...stat...

Trouble is no one knows the number.

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Didn't they ask them if they'd for Hillary in the general? Bit of an oversight, that.

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Hillary is NEOCON MONSTER...nuff'said

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I don't think we can put much stock in the comments people are making right now about the general election. We're going to have a whole campaign in the meantime.

I agree. There's 6 months to go before the GE....hopefully cooler heads will prevail after everyone takes a deep breath and starts to concentrate on McCain.

kos has interesting numbers:

Indiana: Vote by ideology for Obama:

Liberal: 54
Moderate: 46
Conservative: 38

North Carolina: Vote by ideology for Obama:

Liberal: 62
Moderate: 55
Conservative: 42

Them conservatives luv them some tax-cuttin' Iran-bustin' Clinton!

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Why does Wolf Blitzer keep bringing up his destructive idea for August primaries in Michigan and Florida? I thought he was supposed to report the news, not invent it out of whole cloth.

Because he's pissed he's not a Clinton super del.

Ambinder is totally full of shit.


The basic demographic breakdowns suggest that the black/white split has widened as well (although I can't say too much about that now), which might mean that racial polarization (along with SES polarization) is driving the Democratic race to an unprecedented degree.

Come on. This whole black-white model breaks down totally west of the Mississippi. Would you northern goddamn liberals shut up about this now? It's not a valid paradigm and I really hate this shit coming out of our side.


Yeah, Ambinder is the Blitzer of blogging--dumb as a tree stump.

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Unfortunately, Blitzer is the Blitzer of blogging. If you think Wolf's bad on air - check out his writing!


More voters blamed HIllary for negative campaigning -- 63% of Indiana voters.
voters thought Clinton attacked Obama unfairly

Yet they still voted for her.

The economy is a major driving issue, with 65% In Indiana saying it was the most important issue, Unsurprisingly, Hillary won among these voters in Indiana,

They don't trust economists either?

That map that John King uses on CNN is kick ass.

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I agree... At first I thought it was kind of gimmicky, but its actually pretty informative, and I love watching the results come in on the online version.

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I know that, I was commenting on his satire...because it's pointedly accurate.

MSNBC said that the percentage of AA voters who said Wright was "important" was about as high (almost half) as was the percentage among whites. We know that the vast majority of those A-A people are nonetheless voting for Barack.

"Important" can have many meanings. I would consider it important to vote for Obama despite the Wright story to stem the attacks.

It's not really an informative question.

Indiana 61 Clinton 39 Obama.

Thumpin.

OY!!!


Where U been?


We've been waiting for you for hours. I take it she paid you, finally? ;)

Gotalife, didn't your mama tell you -- never be late to teh party!

Is that a new avatar? What's on your head?

Here ya go:

http://bp0.blogger.com/_UQPUzwdX51o/SCDf7a5lL6I/AAAAAAAAAHc/zhY2ozeAfVA/s1600-h/obamaschickens.jpg

Had to go get some Crown to celebrate her thumpin.

Did you make that?

Pathetic way to enjoy yourself, gotalife. Seriously.

Don't lower yourself any more into that gutter, gotalife. You won't find any happiness there, even with your Crown Royal shots and mini casks of beer.

She cannot win the nomination, gotalife.

When Obama is the nominee, join us. Don't go away mad.

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It's over, sport. She's toast. Stop embarassing yourself and do the math, assuming you can. Which is quite a big assumption at this point. She gets absolutely nowhere with a split decision this evening.

Dude, that's only a few rural counties reporting.

He's counting his trailer park.

He's countin' teeth in his trailer park.

"C'mon out! Show me yer toof!"

typo?

Are your parents brother & sister?

You're asleep.

* results of first 2 percent of votes case not ncessarily representative.

What you'll see in the coming days is the Clinton surrogates--the usual creeps McAuliffe, Carville, Bill, etc--playing up the supposed "terrible" breach in the Dem Party, in an effort to build the absurd case that Obama MUST put the deranged Mrs. Clinton on the ticket, to "unify" the party.
All such a move would do is hand the GOP triple the ammo (Hillary + Bill) to use in November against the Democrats.
Fact is, once Obama is the nominee, folks will settle down, drink some iced tea, go for a stroll along the beach, and the party will be unified by August.

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My pee sometimes smells funny.

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Question for those in the know:

We've seen that early voting was tremendous in both IN and NC. Have these votes been counted? When will they be incorporated into the returns? This is a big issue, and any numbers without these votes is worthless in my opinion.

So anyone know?

Exit polls on cnn.com are showing Clinton winning 52-48.

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They should have asked how many Obama supporters would support Hillary. I bet the number would be a lot lower.

In Indiana where African-Americans made up 14 percent of the voters, Obama won 92 percent of that demographic while Clinton only got 8 percent. That compares to 13 percent of the African-American vote Clinton won in Ohio and the 10 percent she received in Pennsylvania two weeks ago.

Clinton's African-American support was even less in North Carolina. There Obama received 91 percent while the New York senator only received 6 percent.

CNN just called NC for Obama.

Obama is ROCKIN' it tonight! Hillary's chances just ended. Only way she gets the nomination now is to hand out free crack.

Hillary's chances ended two months ago.

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We don't need Obama, an elite multi-millionaire graduate of a hoighty toity Ivy league law school. We need something different, like Hillery

I can't tell if this is serious or sarcasm. Given the misspelling of Hillary's name, though, it probably is a Clinton supporter.

Ever hear of Wellesley or Yale? If this isn't a joke, it must be a low info Clinton voter.

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That map that John King uses on CNN is kick ass.

Speaking of that map, it still shows no returns at all in from Gary, only 30% from Indy, with Obama getting 61%, and nothing from the Univ. of Indiana.

Most of the Clinton areas seem to have a majority of the votes counted already. It should end a lot closer than it looks now.

Industrial Strength Whup Ass!
http://i167.photobucket.com/albums/u138/ezdidit_2008/CanoWhoopAssLargeSize.jpg

Billary was right. NC changed everything

GAME CHANGER

The Hillbillies will be history by the end of this month

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