Key Down-Ticket Primary Tonight A Big Test-Case For Antiwar GOP House Members
Forget the presidential race -- there's a big down-ticket primary going on tonight in North Carolina that could serve as a test case for Republican members of Congress who dare to come out against the Iraq War.
The central problem: Come out against the war in a red district, and you risk a primary challenge.
Take a look at Rep. Walter Jones (R-NC), a conservative who now votes with the Democrats on most Iraq matters. Jones has found himself facing an intense primary challenge from county commissioner Joe McLaughlin, whose support for the war could very well land him in Congress in this very red district -- and thus send a serious message to any other incumbent Republicans who might be having doubts about the war.
The campaigns have dueled with wildly different internals polls: McLaughlin released a poll in February showing him down by only 43%-41%, while Jones' campaign put out a poll in March showing him ahead 54%-16%.
With independent voters expected to vote heavily in the contested Democratic presidential primary, McLaughlin is counting on a Republican primary made up of the most conservative voters, and that he can overcome Jones' financial advantage with grassroots spirit. For example, he has won multiple straw polls at local GOP events, and the same pro-war activist base can deliver him a win today.
Another anti-war Republican Congressman, Wayne Gilchrest of Maryland, was defeated for renomination in February over the issue, while Ron Paul easily won renomination in Texas back in March. Tonight's contest could determine which side of the argument gets to claim best two out of three.
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR HILLARY!!!
May 6, 2008 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ron Paul.
LOL.
May 6, 2008 12:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
And this presents all of Limbaugh's lemmings in the district with a dilemma.
If they changed their party registration to Independent or Democrat to vote in the Democratic Primary, they'll be ineligible to vote in the Republican Primary. That will leave the already-low turnout on the Republican side even lower.
Now, does this help Jones, as the incumbent? Or does it help McLaughlin, by making the remaining voters in the Republican Primary more conservative?
I can't say, personally. But at least one of them must have urged Republicans not to change their party identification. Limbaugh could be damaging his own party in downticket races, which is really typical of the shortsighted narcissism that defines the current GOP.
May 6, 2008 12:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rush Limbaugh shooting the Republicans in the foot is too freaking funny...Thanks for some good cheer.
May 6, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I smell hail mary. Rush could very well put IN in play in Novemebr.
Actually, his biggest supporter and organizer, gotalife, spends too much time trolling the blogs, so I doubt their effort is even 1/100th what the Blusterer in Chief commedien Rush declares.
May 6, 2008 12:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
This will be bery interesting. Thanks for bringing this race to my attention.
May 6, 2008 12:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Looks like Republican are damned either way...
Moderate Repubs lose to conservative Repubs, who in turn lose to Democrats.
It's all good for us.
May 6, 2008 12:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good. The pro-war Republican will be easier to take down in November.
May 6, 2008 12:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why do I feel like we're fighting for the very soul of this country? Who in their right minds in this country is still pro-Iraq War? God, I know there are still supporters, but that it's still a popular platform upon which to run is really, truly disheartening.
May 6, 2008 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I feel the same way, Carol, and it's giving me mood swings. Today, with Obama's win, I'm up :)
May 7, 2008 12:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
The two precincts at Broad Ripple Family Center selected Republican Jon Elrod over Democrat Andre Carson in March's special election for U.S. Congress. But by 9 a.m., just 21 voters in one of those precincts had requested Republican ballots -- out of 168 cast.
Amid heavy turnout, Republicans appeared to be crossing over in droves today in Marion County and suburban counties, where fewer Republican voters might impact down-ticket primary races.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/03/indiana-primary-latest-ne_n_94949.html
May 6, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whenever I read a sentence that contains the phrase "pro-war activist", I shed a tear for what's happened to our country.
The good news is that these guys are as destructive to their own cause and party as they are to our nation. Thank God that these people no longer are the mainstream and have been pretty much discredited. Too bad some mainstream media outlets still insist on giving these people a platform.
May 6, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Do the Democrats have a general challenger lined up for this district?
May 6, 2008 1:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, but having lived in and around that district, I'd say that if Jones were to win the primary, then he's probably a lock.
Also, last night I posted a quick reference to an AP wire story and maybe because of that factor, we'd (the Dems) might get lucky and Jones could narrowly lose the nomination.
May 6, 2008 3:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Because Walter Jones is in his father's old seat, I've always felt that he was relatively safe. Though his father was a conservative Democrat and in the realignment, his son naturally went with the Republicans because they more reflected his values and in that particular district, it was the surefire way to get elected.
What's probably going to be one of the main determining factor in my opinion will be the participation of those in the Armed Services. Jones district contains several military bases and I suspect their ranks don't participate in a lot of straw polls. Perhaps a percentage of them are registered Independent and they'll be voting in the Democratic primary, but I think that a good look at the exit poll data might help us understand how the war issue might play in the fall with those on active duty.
May 6, 2008 3:03 PM | Reply | Permalink