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Today: The Kentucky And Oregon Primaries

This is a big day for the presidential campaign, with the primaries in Oregon and Kentucky practically guaranteed to clinch a majority of pledged delegates for Barack Obama.

Polls in Kentucky show Clinton on track for a two to one win in Kentucky, as she has performed best against Obama in the Appalachian region. Obama, meanwhile, is favored to win Oregon by a strong margin. Kentucky has 51 pledged delegates, and Oregon has 52 -- and with Obama only needing less than 20 delegates to clinch the pledged majority, he'll get more than he needs to reach that goal.

The question then becomes how the two camps spin the results, and whether the Obama camp plays it up as a genuine victory mark for the campaign. Obama himself has said he won't, but the Hillary camp has already been pre-rebutting that idea, calling it a "slap in the face" to the millions of people who have voted for her.

The first polls close at 6 p.m. ET in Kentucky, followed by western Kentucky at 7 p.m. ET. Oregon's mail-in voting ends at 11 p.m. ET.


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She'll win Kentucky and Karl Rove will be right.
http://thinmansblog.blogspot.com/

Isn't this Karl Rove blathering just a continuation of the Repugs' campaign to run against their preferred candidate (HRC) in the GE?

Today's elections feel almost frivolous. We all know it's over. It'll be fun for Obama supporters to see him win Oregon, and it'll be fun for Clinton supporters to see her win Kentucky. But there's no urgency or anticipation to today's results, because we all know what the outcomes will be and we know that they won't matter.

Soros bought off and intimidated the
delegates into line.
Voters have nothing to do with this primary.

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The only Democratic Candidate's campaign that has tried to bribe super delegates has been the Clinton campaign. Once again, you are projecting.

Present.

Class it up and be a Democrat for a change.

The last thing we need is wedge-driving. I should know - that's what I've been doing for the last four months. I was wrong.

Hillary is still my #1 pick, but if it's Obama vs. McCain I will work for him just as hard.

Is it going to be a "slap in the face" to every single Hillary voter in America when the nomination goes to Obama?

Is this really their argument? Because it is really irritating.

No, only if he points out that he's won before every conceivable argument, logical or otherwise, for Hillary winning is put to rest.

So, in essence, Hillary is saying, "It ain't over until I say so!"

How does anyone become so self-absorbed?

look, we all know how this will play out--today, the next several weeks

it is incontrovertibly clear that Obama will win the nomination

the nice thing to do, the helpful thing to do, would be for Clinton to bow out tomorrow. I realize that such will not happen. She won't go gracefully. I said it months ago; I repeat it here. Her priorities are not those of the Democratic Party. Sorry, that's just the facts. And I don't say this with a smile on my face. I liked the Clintons.

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Well her claim that it's a slap in the face to her supporters is a slap in the face to Obama's supporters. What she is saying is: Ok, he has won, but you cannot say it or celebrate cause you will hurt my supporters' widdle feewings.

And she and they can kiss my ass. I have the right to enjoy my candidate's win.

I don't think Obama has to declare anything. It will become increasingly clear as the evening unravels herself.

We will start hearing the historical implications of a AA nominee and president from the major media outlets somewhere arounfd 11:30 EST.

I don't think HRC's statement implies that we can't enjoy Obama's victory - we certainly can and we certainly shall.

It just says loads about HRC and her posture through this whole race. She has felt entitled to this nomination and entitled to be President. She, frankly, still can't wrap her head around the fact that it just isn't happening for her. She finds this whole reality insulting. Surely, there's someone to blame for this.

I think the appropriate response for Obama's supporters is not defensiveness, but seeing it simply as a reflection of who Hillary is. She reminds me of a woman who makes divorce harder on her children than it has to be.

But, in any case, don't let Hillary's "bitterness" put a damper on our celebration. Tonight will be an important milestone for Obama. Let's enjoy that, shall we?

I know many people in Kentucky as that is part of my sales territory, but when I see articles like this, it really isn't "cliche" to call many southern voters racist - no matter who they support!

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/chi-kentucky-votersmay20,0,617861.story

Obama doesn't really have to declare victory. He can just keep fighting McCain as Clinton stands around looking increasingly irrelevant.

Because Hillary's margin will likely be larger in Kentucky than Obama's margin will be in Oregon, she may actually win more votes today. Possibly even more delegates, though I doubt it with our lopsided system. But I suspect all that will be completely overshadowed by Obama reaching the majority mark in delegates. In fact, if the MSM doesn't even mention Hillary's popular vote victory today, I would not be surprised. It's amazing how much she has accomplished since Texas and Ohio. And it's amazing how much it doesn't matter.

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Yep, Otto, is is sad that Hillary blew her chances with a lousy campaign strategy. But, it is also lousy that her supporters insist on faking numbers to claim a majority of voters, like ignoring the voters in four caucus states, like not counting any voters in MI for Obama, like even touting 'vote tallies' once she failed in the ruling metric of delegates.

Pwnd!

Hillary may not win the nomination, but I think she deserves a place in the Guinness Book of World Records, if a way could be devised to measure her achievement. I believe Hillary has done more on pure, unmitigated spin than any other major presidential candidate in American history. Since February she has constructed a parallel universe in which she deserves the nomination. As I type this comment, to the right of the box is a graph from the Intrade Presiction Markets, showing the Democratic Primaries market giving Obama a 92.5% chance of victory, and Clinton 6.1%. Yet in the Clintonian world of pure possibility, her possibility equals and even surpasses Obama's, because in her parallel universe she "would" or "could" do better against McCain.
Hillary reminds me of the mediocre performer who is known as "the hardest working person in show business." That person is not especially talented, not especially well liked, but is "a fighter", "never quits," full of grit and determination.
I'm very tired of this charade. I am not interested in how hard she fights or how much determination she has. I'm interested in WHAT my candidate's goals are. I like Obama's much, much better, and in the campaign itself he's shown by actions, not words, how much he can accomplish.

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Hey, does anyone know the answer to this:

Oregon votes by mail-only ballot. Do those ballots have to be post-marked by today? Or received by today? And when will Oregon be able to announce the results??

I'm pretty positive they should be recieved by 8 p.m PST today.

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Ballots must be be turned in by 8 pm (Pacific time) tonight. (If you go to an elections office, apparently it's OK if you are in line to turn in your ballot at 8.) Postmarks don't count.

Because people have been mailing in ballots or dropping them off at designated collection points (public libraries, election offices, etc.) for a couple of weeks now, counting should begin at 8 pm. The basic result should be clear in a couple of hours, but if it's close (which it won't be) it may take awhile.

From Time's The Page:
All ballots must be dropped off to designated sites by 11 pm ET.

Ballot counting doesn’t begin until election day, but mail-in votes received early are opened and prepared for counting ahead of time.

And from Politico:
How quickly is the race called? Good news for the East Coast-based TV networks: Oregon, already three hours behind on Pacific Standard Time, isn’t expected to take long to count the mail-in ballots because of their electronic tabulating machines.

The ballot counting begins in the morning and the first unofficial results are released at 8:00 pm local time. They will continue to be updated until all the ballots have been counted. According to the Secretary of State’s office, 727,527 ballots had been returned through Sunday.

It's amazing how much she has accomplished since Texas and Ohio

Not much really. She won PA and WV convincingly and IN barely. Obama won MS, WY and NC. So not as much as you think. The problem was a 6 week long lay off between OH and PA, and the entire media cycle devoted to her theatrics in the time between.

We have had a long race, every second played, replayed and re-replayed. It's been a while, but everyone seems to forget Obama won 12 states in a row. 12-zilch. That should have some implications on the final out come, one would think.

Obama should get around 50 delegates tonight - making him ~60 short of 2025.

I really respect how Obama is handling the demise of Clinton's campaign. No giant "MISSION ACCOMPLISHED" banners in his world. He's giving her all the space she needs (and she's still complaining - as if she can't possibly campaign without a strawman to attack) while turning to McCrazy and the general election. At the beginning of this race, Obama said look at how I run my campaign and you'll get a good sense of how I want to run my presidency. From the grassroots organization to the refusal to pander to the willingness to adapt to different circumstances (as he did in Indiana) to the immediate response to Bush's attacks, he's done quite a job.

Well, that's how she energizes her base, I suppose. Have to identify an enemy to rail against. Too bad it's not McCain.

I agree, it does energize her base, but we've seen this pattern with Hillary for years. She thrives on opposition and the creation of enemies. She did it with Health Care in the 90s, with the vast right wing conspiracy, etc. She's got a terrific mind, but she tends to present issues in a Manichean fashion that makes her echo people like McCain and Bush: "You're either with us or against us." I'm glad she's not going to be leading our foreign policy because I suspect she'd have to find something to fight.

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Why is it 'a slap in the face' for Clinton voters if Obama wins a majority of pledged delegates and says so? Isn't a primary campaign about who wins the most votes? And doesn't the person who wins the most most votes get to declare that he/she has done so?

Seriously, this is not meant to be a put-down of the Clinton camp - I just don't understand the reasoning behind it.

We are already in a general election. Hillary has dialed down the BS to almost tolerable levels, and everyone knows Obama will be the nominee. Now we just need to heal the wounds, and get the angry Hillary supporters on board. After June 3, Hillary can bow out wth dignity, then she and Bill better hit the Appalachian trail for Obama, or the respect I lost for them this campaign season will remain lost.

From Andrew Sullivan:

A little of both, perhaps. When it comes to Mrs Clinton, one under-estimated factor is the nature of her ambition. As her life has progressed from those salad days at Wellesley, her own long march through the institutions has been fraught with awful moral compromise. In this campaign alone, the pacts she has made with various devils to keep ahead of the pretender to her throne have been particularly brutal. Somewhere in her head, she justifies all the principles she has trashed over the years, all the enemies she has allied with, all the racists she has won over, all the abused women she has smeared ... on the grounds that if she becomes president, the good she can do will outweigh it all. These are the sacrifices all people who seek power for the good must undergo, she tells herself. To have it all taken away from her at the last minute - by someone who hasn't made as many compromises - is therefore unimaginably cruel. She cannot accept it - because her life's work is at stake. So she struggles on. Her private life, her marriage, is fused with her public life. So she has nowhere else to go. Which is why she stays. This is all there is for her.

Is that crazy? I don't know. But it is immeasurably sad. Not sad enough for pity. She did this all herself. But sad nonetheless.

Obama is the Man! Can't declare himself the winner yet, though it's all but over; can't count on the unity of the Democratic Party to catapult him completely into the GE; yet he has got to fend off criticism from Bush, McCain & RNC as if he were the nominee; has to watch everything he says, as there is a potential bruised ego in every corner (HRC, potential VPs, etc.) He can't even enjoy his clear electoral victory in peace and in public! Serve this man up some waffles on January 20th.

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Let's think about it in terms of a real race, say a car race.

It's a long race, many many laps. All of the other cars have dropped out, except for two. Those two keep going around the track, one is just less than one car length behind. However, the 2nd place car cannot accelerate any more, and the first place car is going too fast to catch.

If you were car #2's driver, would you say: "let's just quit now, I can't catch up"? Or, would you say: "I'm gonna keep on his tail until the end. Maybe he'll have a blowout, or his car falters, or mine somehow gets some extra acceration".?

How can the driver of car #1 declare victory, before he goes over the finish line?
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Now let's turn it around: car #1 and #2 are on the same team, and the winner gets to race in the final. Should car #2 stay in the race hoping car #1 will have an accident? Or should car #2 quit now and let car #1 get into the shop for a new tuneup?

BP

THIS

IS

Yes, I'm hoping for a big win in KY - and even an upset in OR, but if we lose, the nomination becomes increasingly clear.

I do truly hope there's room for HRC in the Obama white house, if not as VP, then in the Cabinet. What I will not stand for however is this assinine scorched earth policy of Hillary or no one.

Believe me, no one's name is John McCain, and if you enjoyed the last 8 years, you're going to love the next 4.

As forward thinking people: democrat, independent and even moderate republicans, we need to stand united for the party that will undo the most damaging 8 years in the history of our republic.

Now who's with me?

She will win KY.

I hope for upset in OR.

But, if it does not happen, I am not stupid.

I will back Obama over McSame. Period.

Welcome back.

Obama Declares Victory, Clinton Declares Herself Lady Godiva


May 20, 2008 (LPAC)--With exit polls in Kentucky showing Hillary Clinton with as much as a 30 point lead, the pundits and the press continue to push the line that the race is over for “poor, poor Hillary.” What London and their sorry dupes in the US hate to admit is that this race is far from over, and with sweaty palms, this crowd is growing increasingly desperate.

Look at the facts: The media is attempting to push Hillary out of the race, prematurely announcing Barack Obama as the Democratic nominee; yet, the population is continuing to fight and has delivered five of the last six primary victories to Clinton.

In truth, the only recent accomplishment for the Obama campaign is that he is racking up the best delegates that money can buy. This past week, using George Soros’ dirty money, the Obama campaign purchased John Edwards. If Obama is not desperate, why go through such trouble to buy a three-time loser?

Anything less than a landslide victory in Kentucky today, will raise the important question: which is more absurd, Obama declaring himself the Democratic nominee, or Clinton declaring herself Lady Godiva?

For Christ's sake, will you pause and take a look at the math? The MATH! Tell us how the race is "far from over."

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