Is Hillary Outperforming Obama Against McCain Among Working Class Voters In Key Swing States?
Okay, we've been digging into this question of whether Hillary really outperforms Obama against McCain among blue-collar whites -- an argument that's a pillar of her claim that she's more electable than Obama is.
As noted below, today's Quinnipiac poll would appear to pour cold water on that argument -- it finds that McCain beats both Hillary and Obama by identical margins among non-college whites nationally, as well as among whites overall.
However, Hillary's argument is also that she outperforms Obama against McCain among this demographic specifically in the key swing states.
Is that true? The most recent poll we can find that looked at these numbers in a fine-grained way is this one from Quinnipiac some two weeks ago. It found, in the pollster's own words, that Hillary "runs much better" than Obama among these voters in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Take a look:
Florida
Top-Line:
Clinton (D) 49% McCain (R) 41%
McCain (R) 44%, Obama (D) 43%
Whites:
McCain (R) 45%, Clinton (D) 45%
McCain (R) 50%, Obama (D) 36%
Working-Class Whites:
Clinton (D) 45%, McCain (R) 45%
McCain (R) 51%, Obama (D) 34%
Ohio
Top-Line:
Clinton (D) 48% McCain (R) 38%
McCain (R) 43%, Obama (D) 42%
Whites:
Clinton (D) 45%, McCain (R) 42%
McCain (R) 48%, Obama (D) 36%
Working-Class Whites:
Clinton (D) 46%, McCain (R) 40%
McCain (R) 49%, Obama (D) 34%
Pennsylvania
Top-Line:
Clinton (D) 51% McCain (R) 37%
Obama (D) 47%, McCain (R) 38%
Whites:
Clinton (D) 47%, McCain (R) 41%
McCain (R) 43%, Obama (D) 41%
Working-Class Whites:
Clinton (D) 48%, McCain (R) 40%
McCain (R) 45%, Obama (D) 38%
Some caveats are in order. This is only one poll, and as best we can determine thus far, there has been little to no polling elsewhere of precisely this nature. What's more, this polling comes months before the general election, at a time when passions from the primary haven't cooled and Obama hasn't had a chance to unite the party behind himself.
Also note that this deficit didn't prevent Obama from carrying Pennsylvania against McCain. And keep in mind that other general election polls have shown Obama running well against McCain in these states, too.
What's really noteworthy about the above numbers -- particularly when you compare them to the national numbers showing McCain beating both Dems equally among working class whites -- is that they strongly support the argument that Josh advanced yesterday at TPM:
Chiefly, that Obama's real disadvantage is in Appalachia, not among working class whites or rural voters in general.
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