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Hillary Chief Strategist: North Carolina Loss Represented Progress Because We Won Among White Voters

On the Hillary conference call, Hillary chief strategist Geoff Garin made the case for her electability in some of the most explicitly race-based terms I've heard yet.

Garin argued that the North Carolina contest, which Obama won by 14 points, represented "progress" for Hillary because she did better among white voters there than she did in Virginia.

"When we began in North Carolina," Garin said, "our internal polling and much of the public polling [showed] we were running exactly even with white voters."

Garin said that the Virginia electorate was the "closest white electorate in the country" to North Carolina, and added that Hillary "started even" among whites in North Carolina, and "ended up earning a significant win of 24 points."

"We obviously did not do as well as we would want or needed to among African American voters," Garin concluded.

Put in the context of the Hillary campaign's chief argument that she's the more electable Dem, Garin's overall implication here is that her success among white voters in North Carolina yesterday is "progress" in the sense that it strengthens her case for electability.

In other words, it's an explicit, and unabashed, linking of her claim of electability to her success among whites.

Late Update: Atrios, commenting on the above, writes:

There's nothing wrong with acknowledging the reality of race and politics, and there's nothing wrong with politicians targeting their campaigns and messaging towards various subgroups.

What the Clinton campaign is doing is saying that Obama has electability problems, and using their support from white voters as evidence of that. That's a wee bit problematic, and not just because it doesn't follow logically any more than the other electability arguments such as Obama can't win the election because he can't win the primary in big states.

Late Update: Here's the audio from the call:


Comments (203)

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Well the previously implicit, bashed version was still pretty obvious.

What about all the white voters in Iowa, the Dakotas, in Maine, Wisconsin, Alaska...

This argument doesn't fly, it's basically saying "but, but, he's black!" (Was that from an Eddie Murphy movie?)

I believe it was said about Danny Glover in "Lethal Weapon 2" (by one of the white South African villains).

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As Joe Pesci said in his best Afrikaans, "He's *blick*!"

BEST IDEA ON THIS THREAD

Two Presidents:
One to hold the hands of the trouser soiling loopys until they get over their white guilt.

One for the adults.

McCain/Paula Abdul '08

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In the upcoming states I expect Obama to do much better in the "whiter" ones: Oregon, Montana, South Dakota. I would expect to see 20 point victories with Obama dominating all demographics.

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She is smoking crack. It's over.


Go ahead and drag this on more......ruin any CLinton legacy that is left.

Go ahead.

I give them points for chutzpah. Still, much too late for any serious argument on Hillary's behalf. The race is over.

In other words, it's an explicit, and unabashed, linking of her success among whites to her case for electability.

Yes. It is an explicit statement of a strategy that the Clinton campaign has been executing since December and January. It started with Bill Shaheen, was helped along by the loathsome Mark Penn, Bill Johnson stepped in, and Bill Clinton gave it some real momentum.

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So you get to attack the Clintons and accuse them of being out right racists, but you are offended when I used the Fatal Attraction metaphor. Thank you very much, Captain Sanctimonious.

I repeat and stand by my cautionary metaphor.

Keep your guard up. Hope for the best, but expect the worst out of Hillary. Think about it in a Fatal Attraction context. This is a very dangerous period. Do not get lulled into a false sense of victory. Do not lay down your arms until she has surrendered.

For those who can spare it, keep sending in donations to Obama. You have to make sure that he does not get caught short, should Hillary continue to wage an all out war. Her talk of raising the nomination delegate count required, and her ongoing efforts to count Florida and Michigan in her favor convinces me that she will continue with a scorched earth campaign.

What Hillary has done up until now is your best guide as to how she is likely to behave in the coming weeks.

Think Fatal Attraction, and keep your guard up at all times. Donate to Obama and keep on lending a hand.

I'm sorry. Portraying Hillary Clinton as a mentally unhinged woman is offensive to me.

As for accusing the Clinton's of being racists? No, I don't think I ever did that. I pointed out that they've been implicitly pushing the theme that Obama will be unacceptable to white voters for some time. They're using a racist tactic. Doesn't make them racists. Makes them cynical divisive politicians.

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Um, I think both the Clintons are mentally unhinged.

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Oh come on. You (and I) may not like the way they've chosen to conduct their campaign, but 'mentally unhinged'??? Seriously? Are you a psychiatrist who is competent to make such evaluations?

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Well thank you very much Church Lady. Aren't you special. You get to slice and dice how you define the cynical racial nature of the Clintons, but you want to continue with your feigned outraged about my use of the Fatal Attraction metaphor, in a political context. You set up a strawman, in order to express your church lady outrage toward what I wrote, but you feel free to congratulate yourself on how well mannered you have behaved when you defined Hillary as a race baiting lowlife. Thank you very much, Church Lady.

I hit a nerve, huh?

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I don't know... is there really that big a gap between being actively hostile to the interests of black people and being indifferent enough to them that you can countenance racist tactics?

Sorry CT Voter - If what you're saying is true, it makes them closer to racists, although they may not be bigots. A bigot believes in the superiority of one race over another. The Clintons are not this. A racist uses their power to the determent of a racial group. Using racially polarizing politics is a classic definition of a racist.

To be clear - I don't think the Clintons are racists. I don't think they've appealed to white people at the expense of black people. I think they appealed to more more white people in North Carolina. The voters may have brought the racial baggage with them. Clinton's sin is exploiting that after the fact to say they've made progress with white voters.

Keep your guard up at all times is fine advice.

Why link it to a mentally unhinged woman?

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I write my own comments, and I do not edit other peoples. I do not need to seek editorial approval from some sanctimonious person who does not even grasp the concept of the literary use of metaphor, to make a political point.

If you don't seek comment on your thoughts, what the hell is the point of posting them on a blog?

Liam said he doesn't seek "editorial" comments. Very different from regular comments.
A big difference.

Yo Garin,

It's OVER.

It's as OVER as "Survey USA is the best and most accurate pollster."

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Yeah, SurveyUSA sure did screw the pooch on this one. Clinton +12 in IN? Obama +5 in NC? That's just embarrassing.

Nice going, Clinton campaign - classy until the very end. Well, I suppose we know now how she's going to continue her campaign, huh?

This desperation tactic by the Clinton campaign is both very sad and destructive to the Democratic Party and to the nation as a whole. Public talk about racial divisions serves only to exacerbate and deepen them, so this is not costless if it is their approach going forward. Racial divisions are, of course, out there in the real world, but the way that elites talk and choose to compete with one another can either soften or exacerbate such divides. Social science research is clear on this.

The rationale for Superdelegates is to use their judgement in a timely way for the good of the party as a whole. It is time for them to decide and let all progressives move on from Clinton last-ditchism.

Thank you Prof. Skocpol. Op ed on this please -- don't waste your keystrokes talking to the likes of us!

Well said. I think this is what so many of us feel about leadership. It isn't just fighting for a policy. It is about how one carries oneself, about the values one displays in competition. That has an enormous effect on others, especially those who see themselves as mere spectators in our democracy.

It occurred to me last night that the Clintons have not had a lot of experience losing elections. They've suffered many setbacks, of course, but they themselves have not been rejected for decades. (Was the last loss Bill's as Attorney General in Arkansas?)

How they lose will tell us a lot.

Amen Professor Skocpol.

Yes, Professor. Thank you for posting. Someone needs to sit them down and read them the riot act. They cannot continue to engage in these kinds of divisive, race-baiting tactics that will further split the party and endanger our chances in November.

I could not agree more, professor.

This context is a terrible context for any kind of dialogue about race. This is a contest - someone vs. someone. It couldn't be a worse milieu in my opinion.

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As a white voter, I am pleased to hear that the Clinton campaign thinks I'm the only type of voter who matters!

We white voters RULE!

Today, the Democratic primary. Tomorrow, the world.

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Yeah, like totally. Since when have blacks even been able to vote?

Especially in states like Indiana with their poll tax voter ID law.

Typical muggle...

...Snapped Snape.

Instead of waving the white flag of surrender, Hillary has chosen to wave the Confederate flag of white supremacy.

Excellent comment! Very inspired, Opus! ;)

Choose your flags carefully!

{{{{Swoon}}}}}}


What a great comment.

Well, what else can the guy really say? It's his job to promote her and there's not much silver lining to be found.

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Yes, it's Garin and Wolfson who have a problem of disengaing. I don't expect to hear this from the Clinton's anymore now.

Perhaps he could say something less divisive. Do these people not know that grace is a sign of strength, not weakness.

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YAY! Racial polarization is progress!!

As far as Hillary is concerned..

By Friday, Hillary will be giving speeches in front of a giant Confederate flag.

"Barack Obama, if this offends you, you need a history lesson!!!"

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Rumor has it Hillary has already offered her VP slot, should she win the nomination, to David Duke.

Opus/Loggins '08 - we know our symbols and iconography!

Can "Heritage - Not Hate" be our slogan?

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Rumor has it Hillary has already offered her VP slot, should she win the nomination, to David Duke.

What I don't understand is who do these spinners think buys such nonsense. The unpledged (super) delegates certainly don't.

It seems Garin's intent in this silliness is to further his campaign's efforts to cast Obama as the AA candidate.

Pretty clear signal they're going to continue trying to tear him down; in other words, Rachel Maddow is right.

Perhaps the "high road" style of campaigning is not conceivable to them.

If she keeps this up the party graybeards are going to shut her down. If you pardon my french she has been building a giant shit sandwich for herself and once Obama officially secures the nomination she is going to have to not only eat it but convince all of her voters that it tastes like prime rib. I can't wait to see her on the stump for Obama.

Ok, so white voters only matter, and forget about African-Americans and eggheads?

Next up from the Clintons?

Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, Mississippi, Virginia, and North Carolina votes don't count, because those states aren't really from the United States. They're Confederate states, and therefore, those votes shouldn't count.

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Common side effects of Clinton propaganda include:

Extreme dizziness, vertigo, nausea, and vomiting.

Consume at your own risk.

Dude,
Just stop. Seriously. It's getting sad.

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I don't think Hillary is even hoping for a miracle anymore. At this point her mission is to make Obama unelectable and wait for 2012.

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Sadly, you are probably correct.

I don't know if I'm more amazed by the brazenness, the moral bankruptcy or the political imbecility of this argument.

So, they're going to keep up the race baiting. What class.

Taken from Dailykos, Clinton had a wide slippage in the white female vote in Indiana:

Let's compare Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Indiana, three states which are similar in overall demographics.

First, the female percentage of the electorate shrunk. In Ohio women made up 59% of voters, and in Pennsylvania 58%, but only 56% in Indiana. While Indiana being an open primary means that independents (who tend to be men) had high turnout and probably shifted the demographics considerably, but it doesn't explain the difference with Ohio. With a slightly higher turnout, Clinton could have won by a larger margin.

Next, let's look at Hillary's margin over Obama among women:

Ohio: Hillary - 57% of the female vote to Obama's 41% - a 16% gap
Pennsylvania: Hillary - 59%, Obama 41% - an 18% gap
Indiana: Hillary - 51% - Obama - 49% - a 2% gap!

In contrast the male vote was essentially constant, with Hillary winning men by 2% in Ohio, and Obama winning men by 2% in Pennsylvania and Indiana.

The gender gap in Hillary's support (her female support minus male support) was 7% in Ohio, 10% in PA, but only 2% in Indiana.

Could the difference in black female turnout have made a difference? Not much. Black women made up 11% of the OH electorate, 8% of the PA electorate, and 10% of the IN electorate. In all three states, black women voted for Obama by essentially the same amount.

Instead, it was the closing of the white female vote which denied Clinton a wide victory.

Ohio: Clinton 67%, Obama 31% - 36% gap
Pennsylvania: Clinton 68%, Obama 32% - 34% gap
Indiana: Clinton 60% - Obama 40% - 20% gap

As with men at large, white men didn't really change much. They supported Clinton by a 19% margin in Ohio, a 14% margin in Pennsylvania, and a 14% margin in Indiana.

Somehow, in the closing days of her campaign in the state, Clinton managed to squander a goodly portion of the gender gap which has won her state after state. Without this slippage, Obama would have only marginally improved over PA, given the higher male and slightly higher African-American turnout.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/7/112410/1487/624/510921

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You can always count on the Clinton mafia to take the high road.

It's going to be great to see the Democratic Party cured of its Clinton infection.

Ok, let's just get real here - her entire campaign has been run on one overwhelming idea -

Obama can't win because he's black.

You can argue all you want, but that has been her campaign.


it's disgraceful.

They have been sort of communicating that message via winks and nods since SC, yeah. They use it to explain away her poor showing among AA voters as well. It's just amusing that it's never seen as a liability that a Democratic candidate only pulls 8% of African American voters.

Tena, I would have argued that, at one point, but not any longer. What rational basis do they have for making this argument NOW! Are we seeing the outlines of a strategy for Hillary 2014?

I wouldn't have said it at one time.

It didn't become that apparent to me until she started losing.

So glad someone just said it FLAT out. :P

But yeah thats her argument.

And just remind people when they say "well 90% of black people are voting for Obama" remind them that AA voters usually vote together, the same Clinton in the 90's, BOTH times, Al Gore as well.

So that argument is bullshit.
Black voters didn't get behind Al Sharpton in 2004, because we didn't like his policies and he isnt much of a candidate.
As a whole, even though there are many who more than likely do think "well he is black, so I will vote for him", of course there are some. But a majority? HALF? I don't think so.

Thanks for telling it like it is, as you always do, Tena.

At this point, politically, she has nothing to gain by this argument. She knows the superDs won't buy it. It must be that she's just trying to hurt Obama. :(

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Dems unite!

We need to beat neocon John.

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Fellow Democrats, now is the time for us to bury all hatchets and try our best to come together. I realize it is hard for Clinton supporters to accept this in the face of their unfailing support for their candidate. I would feel the same if Obama had lost. But, we are all Democrats and there is a general election waiting for us. We must defeat McCain in November. Isn't that the reason for the record turnouts in all the primaries and caucuses? This country and our Constitution cannot withstand another Bush term. The MSM will begin their attacks on Obama TODAY. Here comes Reverend Wright again, Ayers, Rezko and all the rest of it. (Please Hillary supporters, don't start with "I told you so", because it would be the same 'politics of destruction' from them if she had won, believe me).

We must unite behind the Democratic nominee and stop the nonsense of trying to cut our noses off to spite our faces. We must remain vigilent and DEMAND the main stream media coverage to be truly 'fair and balanced' and not one-sided as it has shown itself to be in these primaries. We also need to let it be known, loud and clear, that we will NOT stand idly by while this election is, again STOLEN from us, like the last two. That we will NOT STAND FOR IT!! We will not stand by while another Republican candidate is 'selected' by the Supreme Court! We are 'the people' the Constitution talks about and it is our government and not the sole government of the Republicans or of the Corporations.
If Barack Obama's government is a fraud, as many Clinton supporters have alleged (I certainly do not think so), I will be the first to stand up and point that out. But, he is our best HOPE to change the politics we now have. I just want my country back. I am sick of being lied to; I am sick of being spied on'; I am sick of being a citizen responsible to the world for the utter incompetancy of the leaders of our country; I am tired of living in fear of our OWN government. Please, let's come together and try to straighten out the mess that has been created in the last eight years! It is our last and best HOPE!

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Other Clintonista pronouncements:

Up is now down.

The world is flat.

And Hillary losing NC by huge margins is EXCELLENT NEWS FOR HILLARY!!!!

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I've got an explanation for Garin's nonsensical comments: money. Yep. Plain ans simple. The Clinton Campaign is in debt and every penny they can sucker...er, I mean convince people to donate is one less they have to come up with later.

Great minds, etc.

This site is getting shrill. The Clinton campaign has to keep on putting whatever claims they have to remaining superdelegates so they can pay off their debts.

What else could Garin say about North Carolina?

No one takes any of this seriously, except Clinton contributors. Show me the money! Obama has won. Be good winners.

You know -


women in particular, even on a board, really hate being accused of being shrill.


but hey, let's trot out all the online civility arguments one more steenking time as if what we say really makes any difference.


*sigh*

Amen to this.

Excuse me for my shrillness.

Pat Buchanan is shrill. Gotalife is shrill.

She is smoking crack

both the Clintons are mentally unhinged

Hillary has chosen to wave the Confederate flag of white supremacy

By Friday, Hillary will be giving speeches in front of a giant Confederate flag

Common side effects of Clinton propaganda include: Extreme dizziness, vertigo, nausea, and vomiting

Were any of these comments from women? I don't know. I don't much care. Shrill is shrill.

You know - women in particular, even on a board, really hate being accused of being shrill

Your implication, that shrillness is sexist code for independent women, means that we can't use the word shrill. Just like we can't use the word straight or gay or apple or Oreo. I can't even address my uncle Thomas.

Maybe you thought I was calling the women on this board shrill? Get a life. Life was much simpler when I grew up on 121st Street and Park Avenue. And much more straightforward.

P.S. My kid sister sent me this joke thinking it was funny.

A 3-year-old boy examined his testicles while taking a bath. "Mom", he asked, "Are these my brains?" "Not yet," she replied

Works both ways.

P.S. I donate $100.01 every other Tuesday to the Obama campaign, the day and amount of personal interest only to me. But I'm ashamed about how juvenile and insulting to people like my kid sister these remarks are.

I wasn't accusing you of anything. And my comment was tongue in cheek.

Sorry you didn't realize that.

But the fact remains that "shrill" is a derogatory term frequently applied to women. You didn't mean it that way, but that doesn't mean that the negative connotations aren't out there.

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I think it's more often used in an attempt to feminize men, but you make a fair point.

In either case, it's a shibboleth. Kind of like "Democrat" party. It more often identifies the person who uses it than it says anything about the target.

1) the central issue of American domestic politics is race and he's so far shown himself unable to win lower middle class and working class white votes; and 2) the fact that Barack has such a hard time winning them, especially in states that would be likely to go Democratic, is in substantial part because by background and personality he's not - or at least doesn't present himself - as a down-to-earth guy.

Do you really think that the reason he's not been able to make inroads there is due to his personality? Because he's not down-to-earth, or too well educated and reserved, or could it be something more fundamental? Like, I dunno, like that they just can't vote for someone who's not white?

In either case, this is a pretty good litmus test for America. If white people simply cannot vote for the guy because he's mixed race or black, OR that they can only vote for the candidate that "they want to have a beer with", then we are truly lost and not deserving of salvation. Not that Obama is a messiah, by any stretch of the imagination, but the hypothesis that broad swaths of this country can rule out voting for such an apparently decent, hard-working and intelligent man based on the most superficial of criteria (something very carefully nourished by HRC during her campaign), this gives me little hope that our great nation will be able to survive the grave threats it is now facing.

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"What else could Garin say about North Carolina?
"

How about, "We quit."

That's one way to quit incurring campaign debt.

He also went on to say that tomorrow the sun will rise in the West and set in the East.

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And with my first post may I say I think it is now incumbent on the SuperDelis to stand up and be counted. Now. Tomorrow. Their silence is weak. If it is really over then why don't they finish it tomorrow. Rise up and finish her.....er....I mean.....say they are ALL FOR OBAMA. Isn't that what we are all waiting for? The end to Lady Macbeth and her naricissm.

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Just wait until Wolfson floats the "white dem voters should count as 1 2/3 a vote per white voter"...

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Of course, Hillary is stoking the flames of racism in the runup to Kentucky and West Virginia primaries. Whether she is racist herself is beside the point. She's more than happy to pick that scab if it helps her cause (just as she is more than happy to count Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos" voters as a sign of progress).

Words cannot express what a disappointment and disgrace Hillary Clinton has become.

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the monty python knight.." it's only a flesh wound...i'm not dead yet..."

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What I don't understand is who do these spinners think buys such nonsense. The unpledged (super) delegates certainly don't.

The Clinton campaign isn't really trying to convince delegates/voters or superdelegates, and, IMO, haven't been for a long time.

Their real target are any supporters who can still be convinced one way or another to contribute to their campaign, so that Hillary can retire some of that massive debt. She literally cannot afford to drop out now.

Hence the moving goal posts. She's got to come up with some metric or other by which she can argue she is "ahead", or at least viable. Remember when it was big states, swing states, non-caucus states, super delegates, popular vote, etc. Now she's pushing the "white folks" metric as the one that shows she is still viable.

Pathetic, yes, destructive, yes, but if that's all she's got that's all she's got.

I would gladly contribute to help her retire her debt if she would retire herself from the race.

Plus, this is a test to see if this will post as a reply on the page. NitPicker1, would you send me a message if it goes just to you rather thanthe group.

Thanks.
Carol

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Their real target are any supporters who can still be convinced one way or another to contribute to their campaign, so that Hillary can retire some of that massive debt. She literally cannot afford to drop out now.
If that's the case, then she's not being very smart about it. Pandering to the underemployed and economically depressed in the Rust Belt isn't going yield much cash.

I want whatever Garin is taking these days.
The United Democratic for 2008!

I think this is just inertia. It's hard to turn on a dime from win-at-all-costs to gracious loss.

But if you're white and voted for Obama, then you "don't count." Hillary needs a therapist.

Yes, I doubly don't count because I'm a white female LOL!

What an asshat Garin is. I am truly sick of the nonsensical, moronic statements coming out of her campaign. Why, or why can they not once take the high road on anything - why must they sink into the gutter every time? It's really very sad.

Carol, young white fellow here hampering the "progress" of our race.

LOLOL! ;)

You're stuttering again. Please see http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/05/hillary_wins_indiana_networks.php#comment-2792636 for advice.

Thank you for your atttention.

I'm waiting for Carville to say that McGovern's switch is appropriate today because it's the anniversary of a German U-Boat sinking the RMS Lusitania.

So my vote is progress coz I'm White? Gee...thanks Hillary for making me feel special, now please let me go hide my face.

I think the proof will be in the coming days. Let's see what she says today at her hastily organized event in WVa.

I'm not holding my breath.

Neither am I. It was less than twenty-four hours ago that her campaign was touting the nuclear option.

I'll believe the Tonya Harding strategy has ended when Hillar's campaign gives earnest signs of ending it, not when the Kool Kids say so.

"Progress", eh?

When Hillary Clinton questioned Gen. David Petraeus last September, she famously said that to believe his description of progress in Iraq required "a willing suspension of disbelief." After the Indiana and North Carolina primaries, the same may now be true about her case for winning the Democratic nomination. ... Clinton won Indiana, but, as she pointed out repeatedly