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Harold Ickes: Hillary Will Need "A Few" More Super-Dels Than Obama To Catch Him

On the Hillary conference call, there was a bit of a curious moment: Harold Ickes, who's Hillary's chief delegate hunter, seemed to suggest -- perhaps wishfully -- that she would wind up the primaries only "a few" delegates behind Obama.

By midnight on June 3rd, Ickes said, "neither candidate will have achieved the number to clinch the nomination, and each candidate will have to make their case." Referring to the super-delegates, Ickes continued: "Hillary will probably have to get a few more than Obama at that point."

But a bit later, when Ickes was pressed to say how far behind she'd be in delegates once the voting concluded, he conceded: "It will be over 100." It seemed clear from the context that he'd factored in a Florida and Michigan solution to get this number.

So where are we, then? By one count, there are roughly 197 remaining uncommitted super-dels.

Assume for the sake of argument that none of these decide between now and June 3rd. And assume she ends up with 100 delegates less than Obama, as Ickes predicts.

She would then need at least three-fourths of those nearly 200 super-dels to support her -- and not Obama -- in order to overtake him. That's hardly "a few," obviously.


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More bullshit Clinton stories?

You're just fucking with us now, right?

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wait -- this post is favorable to Hillary? Is that really the argument?

no, the argument is that you keep posting about a candidate that cannot, should not, and will not win the nomination. if all of these posts were about Bob Barr or Mike Gravel we would be equally perturbed.

No. Not at all. It's not about favorable to Clinton or to Obama - I'm not accusing you of bias.

I'm just questioning the newsworthiness of every delusional thought from the Clinton camp.

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I think it's newsworthy if Harold Ickes says they're going to come in more than 100 delegates behind Obama

Why is that newsworthy?

cuz they admit it

not every day that a hillbot admits to understanding reality

see how far you've gone over the cliff

Yes, I consider this news worthy. Glad it was posted.

So the angle is someone from the Clinton campaign acknowledging reality?

He's got you there.

Actually, that really is news. In the category of man bites dog.

I'm just glad you pointed out how ridiculous "a few delegates" behind was from Ickes.

Greg:

Ickes has mentioned before that even if they come in 100 delegates behind Hillary, that it'll still be a close race, and allows them to take it to the convention. That's what I heard in an earlier report.

"Hillary will probably have to get a few more than Obama at that point."

Yeah, probably.

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Because Ickes mentions in passing something we here have been pointing out for well over two months now?

Will it be newsworthy if/when Ickes says that maybe it is not a good thing that the Hindenburg is filled with hydrogen?

Did anyone, like say a blogger journalist, ask the question of Ickes about his vote last year to strip all of Michigan and Florida's delegates because of them violating DNC rules?

That might have been a little newsworthy, no?

He was asked about his role in stripping the delegates, and Ickes said that was different because he wasn't in a campaign role with Hillary by then.

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LOL really (at work so not able to listen to the audio)?

Translation: "That was before I was a paid flak to spout nonsense for a specific campaign"

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Dude, the newsworthiness of such an item rates around 0%. This is pure insanity, and posting it only helps them air their argument. I'm normally with you and I don't believe TPM is Clinton-biased.

But posts like this sure make it seem like they have you guys under their spell.

not newsworthy, greg. he said that two weeks ago.

I respectfully disagree that Ickes releasing a transparently B.S. statement is in itself news. If Ickes said that he was capable of flight that would not be news, if he's spotted on the edge of a tall building flapping his arms furiously then that would be news.

Maybe we could get THAT for entertainment at the convention instead of a live band or whatever.

Is every argument that emanates from Harold Ickes or Howard Wolfson or Lanny Davis or Geoff Garin or any of the other Clinton surrogates "newsworthy?" Is it "newsworthy" when you can prove it's false?

Are you ever asking them how "more than 100" is equal to "tied" -- meaning "even" or "the exact same equal amount" (as my nephew used to say)?

No, it's just something that Harold Ickes warbled today.

I'm not outraged, but would it kill you guys to give us a thread on Obama's three SD pick-up today? That has actual relevance to the race.

I agree, Obama's SD's are newsworthy, much more so than this, which is just someone smoking some good stuff before a conference call.

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SDs? South Dakotans? San Diegans?

Sorry. The whole SD = "superdelegate" thing is a pet peeve of mine. :-)

This is yet another opportunity to bash the Clintons for moving the goalposts, distorting the facts and just being silly...And then for the Trolls to show up and accuse us all of being hopeless Obamabots who only want to prove we are better than they are, and don't care about winning...

I need a cocktail.

How about a nice Hawaiian Punch?

POW!!!!

Fruit Juicy Hawaiian Punch!

Sorry couldn't resist. Used to be one of my favorite commercials when I was a kid...

There really is NO argument save why is Hillary so hung up on the Ambassador Hotel June 1968 and why do you persist in being such a lame ass shill?

Been asking the latter since Marshall gave you your kingdom?

Been asking myself why he bothered

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What is newsworthy is the willingness of Harold Ickes, a normally rational courtier, to make silly, through the looking glass, comments simply to feed the gigantic Clinton ego. She really is the Queen of Hearts.

You really should be asking why Ickes and the rest continue to repeat Hillary's delusions. Loyalty is one thing, but they are all going to want to work after June 4.

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I think the problem here is that Harold Ickes could control a robot arm with his mind and no one would really give a shit. I think everyone's just tired as hell of hearing the relentless bullshit emanating from these idiots. It's just dreary and depressing and pointless.

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I think that it is news worthy when a Clinton spokesperson acknowleges reality. It happens so seldom.

haha, as I was writing that above I was thinking, "well, dammit, I'm making his point for him, aren't I."

hot from the desk of Greg Sargent:

:NEWS FLASH: MARK PENN TAKES A DUMP THAT LOOKS LIKE THE WHITE HOUSE. IS THIS A SIGN CLINTON'S NOMINATION IS IMMINENT?

seriously guys. tell us about Obama or McCain. you know, the 2 nominees from their respective parties.

Obama people never say anything absurb or provocative enough to warrant a post, apparently.

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guess you missed the post quoting Obama campaign manager David Plouffe? That was all of an hour ago, so maybe you forgot it?

And really -- this post says that Hillary has no chance of catching him. Any Obama supporter who reads this and gets outraged is seriously lost.

We're not outraged - just getting tired of the repetition. (This is, what, the fourth story in a row about the same topic?)

i'm not outraged at all, just being glib...see below.

Above, actually. Sorry. I guess it is just the nature of these two campaigns right now. Obama's camp rarely says anything remotely as silly as what Ickes, Wolfson and Lanny Davis have said just today. I understand that this leaves you with little to go on aside from the Clinton's ever changing arguments, metrics, etc.

I've said it before, I'll say it again. Keep up the good work, Greg. Thanks.

And I wasn't being snarky. I am really looking forward to reading TPMEC when it is just Obama v. McCain.

Agreed. Last week when Greg and Eric were reporting on McCain's attacks, they were great.

But this isn't news. Sorry.

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okay, gotcha. thanks. I'm looking forward to the post-primary too, believe me

Greg: I think we are all just sick of hearing about her. It is not you at all, it is the topic on a non-topic.

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I feel for you, man.

"Shoot the messenger" seems to be the phychosis. Hair-triggers. Completely forgivable. People are fed up. I know you don't take it personaly because you would have otherwise long ago descended into lunacy.

Your post, at this stage, is more comical than anything else, mainly because Ikes and the like will ultmately have to face a day when they have officially lost, and yet they proceed as if that day is never going to come. The steep consequences of this loss have not even begun to dawn on them.

The entitled class of the dem party is being shown the door, and Harold doesn't not seem to remember where he left his coat.

Thanks for your work, and your armor.

Pax,
M.

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Is that a straw man? I didn't read any "outrage" here. Just perturbance at another worthless uttering from a delusional campaign apparently meriting yet another "camp hillary says..." post.


Ps. it hardly ever looks good for you to be commenting on your own threads, unless offering an update or point of informational clarity, and this is no exception. it never looks good to insult readers/commenters here, real or straw men.

Greg,

I though Ickes said last month that Hillary Clinton would finish within 100 pledged delegates of Barack Obama. Setting the bar a bit lower ...

I like Ickes, and think he's a legend. Without him, we would never have proportional allocation. Just sometimes he gets on my nerves when he's overly loyal to manipulative Democrats like Bill Clinton.

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I agree with Greg here - and I am definitely an Obama man! :)

This post is about as apologetic to Hillary as McCain is sensitive to gay issues.

Greg makes clear that Icke's argument is ridiculous on its face.

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Heard any 'rumors' on the internets or Clinton camp whether she really will stretch this thing out to the credentials committee and ultimately to the convention floor?

"She's lost but by god that won't stop her" -- kinda rumor?

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Hillary who?

Was there tittering, giggles - outright laughing?

I would like to request that you patch us into these calls. They must be a riot!

I caught part of it on XM radio today while I was driving around.....it was like suddenly being transported to bizarro world.

I seriously don't understand how reporters don't lose their minds listening to people spew obviously, untrue crap. I'd be like that reporter earlier in the campaign who just lost it with Mitt Romney. I could only stand about 5 minutes before I had to turn the station. In fact it was this nonsense from Ickes that finally drove me over the edge.

It will be over June 3.

His estimate of "over 100" will likely be closer to 150 even with a favorable result for Clinton out of MI/FL.

That 75% of 197 then become 87% of all remaining Supers. If he announce 24 between now and then (HIGHLY LIKELY), he will still corss with the pledged delegates from Montana nad South Dakota on June 3.

Greg, I understand you are just relaying the stuff that spews from Ickes' mouth, but we need to hear it to understand where they are coming from. I don't ascribe to shooting the messenger, so thanks for posting this info.

I'm tired of Ickes pretending moral outrage over Florida and Michigan when he fucking voted to strip those delegations.

It's the Maps Stupids!!!

Obama electoral map looks terrible. MI, OH and VA are key states. Obama needs to win at least 2 of these states. If he loses 2 of these states it's all over.

He's pretty deep in the hole, considering that he lost to Hillary be a wide margin in OH and the fact that he wants to punish MI democrats for voting overwhelmingly for Hillary.

The remaining supers know to read a map and will make the appropriate decisions.

Recent polls have him beating McCain in OH and tied in MI.

Next?

This was my favorite part.

he wants to punish MI democrats for voting overwhelmingly for Hillary.

A whopping 55% with no one else on the ballot.

This one has to be fake.

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You got to admit that Hillary got a lot of votes. Nobody else was on the ballot. If she had kept her word, she wouldn't have been on the ballot either. Of course 45% voted for none of the above.

I am sure Hillary is going to argue that she is entitled to all of Michigan's delegates. After all "none of the above" doesn't have a campaign committee.

Is this another one of those parody posters?

Fuzzy math soundtrack for the Bataan Death March to the White House.

AMC at Time's Swampland almost always posts a link to them where you can hear them live.

I can't decide: Is Ickes more Shemp or Moe? I'm thinking Moe. It's clear however that Lanny is Larry, and Terry is most definitely (soitenly?) Curley....

NEWS FLASH!!!

Hillary Clinton still has no chance of winning the nomination!!!

Also, Princess Diana is still dead.

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Oh bullshit!

Princess Diana is NOT dead. She faked her death so she could run off with her secret lover; Elvis!

The both live happily ever after in a small town in North Carolina.

And if you believe that chances are you believe Hillary has a chance to win the nomination.

It's amazing how much coverage is being dedicated to a failed candidacy.

Leave the human interest stories to cable news, guys. I want to know what's going on with the election.

When Baghdad Harold speaks, TPM listens.

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To be fair, Terry is more the Baghdad Bob than Ickes.

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I will be glad to see the day when the clintons names aren't pasted all over every single political blog ad nauseum. How many clinton fantasy stories in a row? Six. There is no other political news except for clinton fantasies? It really is absurd. I am sooo sick of seeing that name clinton. It's tiresome.

Hopefully, these fantasy stories will be done after the convention at least. Maybe we can have a bunch of stories about how the clintons are destroying the party from now until then? Or maybe how about some stories about how they are trying to knee cap the nominee so that he loses in November for the greater good of the clintons? Pathetic.

Via politico JMart:

They don't say the name of their likely nominee in the press release, but the DNC is effectively coming to the defense of Barack Obama for the first time today.

Citing what they call John McCain's "troubling pattern of flubbing key facts and echoing obviously false statements about his own record," the committee has put out a Top 10 of McCain's "misstatements and outright deceptions."

The move comes one day after Obama was hammered by the RNC and right-wing voices for falsely claiming his uncle helped liberate Auschwtiz -- it was a great uncle and Buchenwald -- and as conservatives buzz about a pattern of embellishments.

1. McCain doesn't even know who is in charge in Iran.
2. Iraq/Iran, Sunni/Shia: McCain doesn't know the difference.
3. McCain still thinks Czechoslovakia (which split into two countries in 1993) exists.
4. McCain wrongly claimed that Baghdad was mostly normal.
5. McCain called Baghdad market safe.
6. McCain can't even remember how little he knows about the economy.
7. McCain falsely claimed he never requested pork.
8. McCain falsely claimed that tax cuts increased government revenues.
9. McCain's claim to be untainted by special interest money is false.
10. McCain wrongly claimed he never supported amnesty.

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One other thing, why is it always "hillary" and everybody else is referred to by their last name. Can't you guys at least be consistent. Hillary, give me a break.

Because that's how she's branded herself. Check out her campaign signs.

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Yeah, I know, but that doesn't mean that news organizations, reporters and the like should call her by her first name. I actually find it kind of disrespectful in any event. We were going to call her President Hillary? How pathetic is that.

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It is an easier shorthand in blogs and in news items to distinguish which Clinton is being discussed, Bill or Hillary.

I don't see it like that. There are two prominant Clintons and writing "Hillary" (which, as we both agree, is how she wants to be identified) is easier than constantly writing "Hillary Clinton."

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We weren't going to call her President anything except President of the College Republicans...

there are 13 clinton supporters, who are members on the board that will be taking up the issue this saturday, while Obama has 8 supporters and 9 are uncommitted.....

that is a good possiblity that Hillary will win her case this Saturday.....

If she loses.... it won't be that bad of a lost because they will likely split the delegates 50/50 from both states or possibly 60/40 from both states.

I can't see the board continueing to strip them of all there delegates or asking the parties to have re-votes in both states.

Things look good for Hillary:)

GO HILLARY.... keep fighter for america:)

A masterpiece of self-delusion and "whistling past the graveyard." Does someone pay you to concoct such mega-biased, irrational swill?

Another way of breaking that down is 13 for Hillary, 8 for Obama, and 9 for the Rules set by the DNC. That means 17, a majority, aren't likely to give Hillary everything she wants.

Intentional or unintentional parody?

States that violate the rules that they signed off on must be penalized, or no states will ever again abide by the rules.

You can not punish all the states that followed the rules, by allowing the two states that willfully violated the rules, to become Queen makers.

We do not allow the criminals to run the courts.

This is total BS crap.

Math is kool aid!

ok lunch was not so good the 2nd time...

Math is hard, Gotalife, let's go shopping.

Thought I'd try that approach with you since you have the intellectual stamina of a Barbie doll.

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Michael A,

She is called Hillary because that is what she calls herself. Look at her bumberstickers and signs; they all say "Hillary".

It makes sense from her campaigns perspective to do this too; it shows that she is a woman and not her husband.

To always call her "Clinton" would be against her wishes. I tend to call people what they want to be called. It is good manners.

States that violate the rules that they signed off on must be penalized, or no states will ever again abide by the rules.

You can not punish all the states that followed the rules, by allowing the two states that willfully violated the rules, to become Queen makers.

We do not allow the criminals to run the courts.

Call her Senator Clinton. That will distinguish her from her Husband, and address her by her current office title.

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Ditto on that one. They refer to obama as senator obama all the time, why not senator clinton. I still find it disrespectful to call someone running for the highest political office in the land by their first name. It's disrespectful of the person and of the office.

Are you offended by Disney movies too?

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Actually, yeah, quite a few.

So now Hillary has been disrespecting herself? She needs to speak out against this!

I wonder if she also tells herself to get out of the race and bullies superdelegates to come out against her . . .

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She does, but then she tells herself that she is the savior of the democratic party and only she is entitled to be president. Noone else is as capable as her. I think that she may be bi-polar.

Normally, I would agree, except that she refers to herself, as Hillary. Campaign signs etc. are all on a first name basis.

Does anyone else hate it when she refers to Sen. Obama as "my opponent"? Bush used to do that with Kerry in 2004, too. I f*ckin' despise that.

Delegates: Pledged Super Total Needed
Obama 1,660.5 318.5 1,979 46

Clinton 1,499.5 280.5 1,780 245

After PR Obama will need ~23

After Montana and South Dakota: Hello, Nominee!

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once in a while I fear that somehow Hillary will come out on top and volcanic anger stirs inside of me.

She won't, did you see the legal opinion from the DNC lawyers today? Don't worry about it.

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I am afflicted with simmilar bouts of paranoia. They pass quickly because they are so farfetched that I cannot maintain the belief that they are even posible for long.

I'm not so much worried about her getting the nomination. The chance of that is virtually zero. What I'm worried about is her manipulating the facts to rile up anger among her supporters, and/or dragging this out to the convention and beyond. If the madness doesn't end soon, McCain will be in the White House.

And Hillary-zoids, before you even bring it up, giving her the nomination is NOT the solution, because regardless of the polls supposedly proving her "electability" against McCain, she cannot win in November, because she will have grievously infuriated millions of Obama supporters. Bye-bye African American vote. Bye-bye youth vote. Hello, President McSame.

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The way one proves that one is electable is by winning. She failed.

Because it's hilarious.

Lol. Y'all really should leave that Greg guy alone. He's just doing his job, keeping us updated on ALL the news.

then why didn't he mention the snakes ???

(see below)

A very good point. As a MSM aspirant he's doing no less than his institutional duty. After all, you have to report anything that Harold Ickes says, no matter how delusional. Throwing in a sentence or two about how his words are somewhat at variance with reality is permissible on a limited basis, but ignoring what he has to say altogether is not. To not report Clinton campaign propaganda with a straight face would somehow suggest that it has no legitimacy, that those who purvey it have somehow descended to the level of cranks; and that would be editorializing by default.

Greg Sargent knows this. The journalists who dutifully reported Bush administration data on WMD and the everlasting threat of Saddam Hussein in the runup to the war knew it just as well. This is axiomatic: A responsible journalist does not go around calling men of stature frauds, even when they are. The system simply wouldn't function if that were to happen; and then where would we be?

Possible Florida & Michigan out come..... Clinton will get 60 percent of the delegates.... obama will get 49 percent..... or Clinton will get 50 percent and Obama will also get 50 percent... or the delegates will be counted in full, rewarded based on January voting......

I can't see the RBC who are taking up the case this saturday, voting to have all the delegates still stripped from both states or voting to have a re-vote from both states.....

13 members are on that board who are clinton supporters and 8 are obama supporters and 9 are uncommitted and i think clinton is working to try to get them to side with her.


Look for a good out come saturday....

Look for this race to continue to the convention.


GO HILLARY!!!!!!!!!!!

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Amazing, I agree that the clintons will drag this all the way to the convention no matter what the outcome on Saturday. However, the race was over in February. It hasn't been a race for 3 months.

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Clinton will get 60 percent of the delegates.... obama will get 49 percent

ROFL.

And we wonder why Hillaryland is so screwed...?

So there is some 109% votes in Michigan and Florida to be had?

Must be some of that Karl Rove GOP math hard at work.

I've come rapidly to the conclusion that you are a GOP troll, and will dismiss all of your future, equally asinine posts with the disdain and contempt they so richly deserve.

"...9 are uncommitted and i think clinton is working to try to get them to side with her."

That's worked very well for her with the superdelegates, hasn't it?


Anyway, I thought I read somewhere that the 9 uncommitted are, in fact, Dean loyalists. Does anyone know for sure? My guess is that if that's the case, good luck to you because there is no love lost between Dean and the Clintons.

Fret not, Matt. If it were possible, it would have happened by now. She's hanging by the barest of threads, and the Supers are heading for that thread with a razor-sharp blade. They would have buried her weeks ago, but she's being granted special "privileges" due to her association with Bill Clinton. Once the final votes are cast on June 3rd, and Camp Clinton can no longer chant "let everyone vote first," they're going to drop the pellet on her faster than you can say "Travelgate."

Travelgate!

oh crap it's not the 3rd yet

Betelelgeuse! (x3)

* The Nation

Campaign 08 Hillary Clinton --Please Exit, with Dignity, June 4
posted by Katrina vanden Heuvel on 05/26/2008 @ 10:00pm

http://www.thenation.com/blogs/campaignmatters/323677


Too late for that, I'm afraid. Her dignity is long gone and it ain't coming back.

oooops not 49.. should read 40

It won't matter an iota, but thanks for your commitment to consistency.

"Well, you know, It's clear, this election they(Florida & Michigan) are having is not going to count for anything,"
Hillary Clinton Jan. 15.


Riight.

Looks like a shot and a beer didn't help Hillary with this important demographic:

"Bar-goers would rather have a beer with Barack Obama than with Hillary Clinton or John McCain, according to a new survey.

The Rock the Vote interactive survey, which asked about predilections for the presidential candidates and current social issues, ran on TouchTunes jukeboxes in bars nationwide. When asked “Which candidate would you most like to have a beer with?” 29 percent chose Obama. 22 percent chose Clinton and 20 percent picked John McCain, according to MediaPost.
When asked which political party “rocks” the most, 34 percent said the Democratic Party, 18 percent said the Republican Party and 18 percent said the Independent Party. Rock bars, country bars and R&B bars all said the Democrats were the party that rocks."

http://www.mediabuyerplanner.com/2008/05/27/beer-drinkers-like-obama-best/?camp=newsletter&src=mbp&type=textlink

"Frisking Bill Clinton"

Maureen Dowd suggests how to make Bill Clinton turn down having Hillary for VP.


http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/28/opinion/28dowd.html?_r=1&hp=&oref=slogin&pagewanted=print

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Liam - THAT was funny!

BTW, I reposted your FDR comment from yesterday on another thread:
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/05/mccain_attacks_obama_for_not_a.php

You really need to fire that off to the Obama campaign - it is just perfect.

I'm going to miss these conference calls when it's all over for her. Sniff. Keep posting on them, Greg, at the least for posterity. Some day our grandchildren will pour through them amazed at how much b.s. people can sling and not be laughed off the stage.

A federal judge in Tampa has again tossed out a lawsuit filed by a Florida political consultant angry that his vote in the state's Democratic primary will not count.

...

Judge Richard A. Lazzara agreed with the DNC, which said that it its practices are not discriminatory and political parties have a constitutional right to determine how delegates are selected in their nominating process. The party has stripped Florida and Michigan of all their delegates for bucking party rules and holding their primaries early.

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/05/28/florida_voters_lawsuit_dismiss.html

boom. news.

Wah Waaaaaaah

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Ha ha! [/nelson muntz]

Harold Ickes: Pigs can fly! Hillary's a uniter, not a divider! She's changing the tone!

and in other breaking news:

MOST SNAKES ARE LONGER THAN OTHERS

let's see em prove that one wrong

I don't think we should be so sure the RBC isn't bought and paid for -

On a conference call with reporters on Wednesday, aides to Clinton brushed off the suggestion that seating 100 percent of Florida and Michigan's delegation would send the message that states could disregard the Democratic National Committee's primary calendar with impunity.

"As to the effect that this would have on states in the future," said Tina Flournoy, a Clinton supporter and a member of the RBC committee. "We believe that this rule has achieved the goal it was designed to achieve. I don't believe that any state wants to go through what Michigan and Florida has gone through in 2012."

She went on: "I can tell you based on the relentless number of emails... for anyone to think that this has not been a punishment or that any other state will take lightly the idea of moving up their primary has not been party to what has gone on for the past year and a half."

Have they really been punished if all of their delegates were reinstated? If anything, they've gotten more attention than normal.

So the lovely and talented Ms. Flournoy is arguing that the penalty imposed against Florida and Michigan has already proven --- based on email traffic --- to have a deterrent effect even before it's been imposed?

This is the equivalent of some silly "threaten-'em-and-turn-'em-loose" approach by the criminal justice system.

Both the former and the latter are idiotic.

"I don't believe that any state wants to go through what Michigan and Florida has gone through in 2012."

There's just no hiding some folks' brilliance.

so why should we suspect the RBC ???

because some hillbot has a crazy theory ???

Greg is still going to be pushing Hillary Clinton stories until Obama is sworn in.

States that violate the rules that they signed off on must be penalized, or no states will ever again abide by the rules.

You can not punish all the states that followed the rules, by allowing the two states that willfully violated the rules, to become Queen makers.

We do not allow the criminals to run the courts.

Jesus Christ! What the hell is wrong with these people? There are Democrats. There are Republicans. Then there are Clintonites. A bunch of mentally-ill whacko's with nothing else to do but blow smoke up our collective asses. Can we PLEASE ignore these pricks TPM? Media? Anyone?????

Mark Penn must be handling the delegate count.

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Greg - You sure do take some heat, and I think many of us appreciate your willingness to do so and then take the time to respond. If I were to critique anything, it is more often the headline than the content, and that would be the case this time.

My concern is this: the MSM has been quite guilty of parroting whatever the political noise machines tell them. Instead of reporting the news with an objective critique of what's being said, much of the media seems to be quite willing to act as the loudspeaker for the spinmasters, particularly when it sells papers and air time - or add space.

Certainly, TPM is pretty good at critiquing instead of parroting, and that's why many of us appreciate the work all of you do at TPM. Nevertheless, there's room for improvement: while the conclusion your article draws is indeed critical of Ickes assertions, the headline still serves to amplify the Clinton campaign's message. Of course, you did put quotes around "A Few", which seems to suggest doubt about the statement. But, the headline should reflect the purpose of, or conclusions drawn within the article. So, in this case, it might have been more appropriate to add a couple words to clarify what the news is - not simply that Ickes spoke, but that he spoke and his argument is weak:

"Harold Ickes specious argument: Hillary Will Need "A Few" More Super-Dels Than Obama To Catch Him"

Of course, I understand most political spin is usually full of 'specious arguments', and so you have to find new ways to say it in order to not sound redundant. But, my point is that being a bit more explicit with the headlines may help to ensure that TPM isn't a tool of political hypesters. An additional bonus: you may avoid some of the overblown criticism targeted at you (which I assume would be a welcomed change).

Well said. As an Obama supporter, I find Greg's pieces to be leaning Hillary, but usually not offensively so. Better than the MSM but lacking a BS meter at times.

The MSM's gullibility and/or collusion with Hillary and her talking points, is frustrating. The trend of going along with whatever a politician says, without calling them out on, even the the most outrageous stuff, is a big part of the reason why political process in this country, has become so toxic.

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Not just Hillary. Heck, it's a big part of the reason we ended up in Iraq: most of the media just played along and never actually did the real work of checking the facts and asking the hard questions. In a way, it can be fairly said that how the media covers politics and news can have a real life and death impact.

Re: "She would then need at least three-fourths of those nearly 200 super-dels to support her -- and not Obama -- in order to overtake him."

If that's the case, then it looks like it's over and the continuing FL and MI spectacle, is mere Kabuki style drama.
...

The endorsement by US Rep. Dennis Cardoza (D-California) of Obama today sends an extremely firm message to the Clinton campaign, and not only because he was, until today, a Clinton superdelegate.

The Field has learned that Cardoza is the first of a group of at least 40 Clinton delegates, many of them from California, that through talking among themselves came to a joint decision that all of them would vote for Obama at the convention. They have informed Senator Clinton that it’s time to unite around Obama, and that they will be coming out, one or two at a time, and announcing their switch between now and the convention if Senator Clinton doesn’t do the same.

More here:

http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/?p=1258

Isn't Ickes the one who pushed Ted Kennedy to the convention floor back in 1980? A "few" behind gives them the rationale to keep going. This is scary actually.

Yes he was and with disastrous consequences.

Like Hillary, Ted's baggage was a major obstacle to the nomination, let alone the Presidency. Only 11 years had passed since the Chappaquiddick incident and many people, Republican and Democrat alike were uneasy at best, with Ted's explanation. It's certainly an issue which the Republicans would have exploited, to the max in the fall.

As Hillary seems to be doing now, he surrounded himself with true believers, rather than hard headed types who would give the advice he needed rather than wanted. And yes, Harold Ickes was one of them.


Yeah, that's what I thought. With Hillary, Bill & Harold in the room, and all of them suffering from delusions of grandeur, this ain't going to end pretty.

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holy crap.

Lay off Greg people. Especially since he was freakin pointing out the ridiculousness of the Clinton camp claims...

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Hey Greg, wasn't this the same guy that voted to take the delegates away from FL & MI?

Yes! Harold Ickes voted last summer to take them away and even commented on the following the rules, etc.

If I can remember where I read that, I'll post it. At this point, I have way too many facts swirling around my head. I need more memory but the hardware is close to it's maximum level.


This is neither interesting, nor news. Nor is it terribly outrageous by Hillary standards. So, yawns all around.

Obama is going to kill in the fall. Its going to be a great big blue country with a hillbilly red patch in the east that includes KY, WV, TN, SC, GA, MS and AL. He'll squeak by along the southern Mississippi River and in states like OH and PA, and win handily along the northern Mississippi. He'll kill in the west with the exception of a stripe running roughly from ID down to AZ, and I don't think he should be ruled out in TX. Nonetheless, even without TX, it will be a rout.

Good times.

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That should be a paint collor Hillbilly Red.

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PLEEEEEAAAASSSSSEEEEE!!!!!!! MAKE IT STOP!!!!!!!

No, I doubt that we'll call her President Hillary. *VBG*

I have long felt that Ickes was slightly more in touch with reality and a little less prone to delusional Orwellian double-speak than the likes of Penn, Wolfson, McAuliffe and Davis. To me, this reinforces that perception. Though, admittedly, it involves setting the bar incredibly low.

Well, this article was good for one thing. It prompted me to go back and calculate how many pledged delegates Senator Clinton has netted from recent races. I was curious about how many similar states it would take to make up the 198 total delegate lead that Obama has today. VELLY Interesting! Turns out that if you take all of her net delegates in the states she won all the way back to New Hampshire, she has only netted a total of 224 pledged delegates. In fact, going all the way back to Super Tuesday on February 5th, only basically Kentucky put her over the 198 total delegate lead that Obama holds. So much for small leads Huh?
Here are her total nets:

KY 23, WV 12,IN 4, PA 12, RI 5, OH 9, TN 12, NM 2, AZ 6, CA 36, OK 10, AR 19, NY 46, MA 17, NJ 11.

Total net pledged delegates from all states won by Hillary Clinton equals 224. Obama's ahead by 198 total delegates as of 5/28/08. Basically, she'd need to win by her totals all over again to catch up. NOT such a little number huh?

p.s. Just for interest, I went back and figured Obama's too. He's won 16 state primaries plus Washington D.C. for a total of 230 net pledged delegates. (Clinton won 18 primaries plus Texas and 1 caucus.)

Obama also won 12 caucuses plus Texas for a total of 150 net delegates. Obama's total net pledged delegate wins up until today 5/28/08 equals 380 to Clinton's 224.

This may not include all the delegates he got from Edwards. Numbers taken from CNN Delegate Counts. 198 more delegates for Obama is a lot when you realize that it's is almost Clinton's total net for the entire season so far.

Well, it's hardly a "few" delegates but it's still possible. Right now MSNBC has Hillary down 149 PLEDGED delegates. When you count Puerto Rico, MI/FL compromise that lead will narrow probably to less than 100. Then the super delegates will have to decide. And if this goes to the convention Hillary could certainly peel over 100 super delegates or so to win the nomination, especially if Obama continues to look weak against McCain. If nothing else, she will be VP.

Harold Ickes did, for the Democrats, what Bush did for the Republicans.

Destroyed the old guard control of the parties.

Ickes, in his vitrol rants, and insane math, topped off with his simple denial of facts, when presented to him is George W Bush.
Bush, whose vitrol rants, and even more insane math, topped off with his hubris in office, seems like he is still campaigning.

The old guard, the way it's always has been done...the Dems do it too pointmen have had their last stand.
They are not going to Washington in Jan. They are going to be replaced by a younger, far more intelligent and respectful generation who will take politics to a level of conduct, only wished for.

Voters have had it, with the hatespeech, the cbale right wing pundits, who all live in the revolving door to talk radio.
They have had it with 527 abusing everything, every chance they get.
They have had it with money launderers, pundits in pastors robes, and off-topic bloggers.
The Harold Ickes, Newt Gingrichs, the Hannitys, Robertsons, Falwells, Buchanans, Bushs and Clintons are finished.
They had their chance, their days in the spotlight and the next generation is not going to ask, but take control.
If it means shoving the old folks over...then so be it.
The BS stops in 2008.

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