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GOP Sen. Elizabeth Dole Barely Ahead -- In GOP Poll
Democrats look like they may have a very good shot at capturing a major Republican-held Senate seat in a red state -- that of first-term Sen. Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina.
And to top it off, the latest piece of evidence is a new poll done by a Republican firm.
The survey, by state-level conservative think-tank the Civitas Institute, finds that Dole is barely leading her Dem challenger, state Senator Kay Hagan, at 45%-43% -- a statistical dead heat.
Other polling has shown this to be a close race, as well. With the Senate GOP being badly under-funded compared to the Dems, it can't be good for them that they're now having to play on defense in practically every part of the country.
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Gallup Daily: Obama Leads Clinton 51% to 44%
McCain and Obama tied for general election
PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama remains the leader in national Democratic voters' nomination preferences, 51% to 44%, over Hillary Clinton, but his lead has fallen below double digits for the first time in six days in Gallup Poll Daily tracking.
Obama has held a statistically significant lead over Clinton for most of the last two weeks, with that lead stretching to as much as 16 percentage points in May 16-18 polling. Obama did not poll as strongly in Gallup's Thursday night polling (May 22); the coming days will reveal whether that is the start of a new trend or a temporary blip.
In recent days, Obama has held a slight advantage over John McCain in registered voters' preferences for the general election. The latest update, based on May 18-22 polling, finds the two tied at 46%.
In contrast, Clinton has a five-point lead over McCain, 49% to 44%.
Recently, Clinton has tended to fare slightly better in trial heats against McCain than Obama has, with the Democratic candidates doing equally well on a few occasions. Obama has not exceeded Clinton's performance versus McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking since the April 17-21 tracking period. -- Jeff Jones
May 23, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is there a point to this, Otto?
May 23, 2008 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I got the point. Do you need some help?
May 23, 2008 7:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Your polling against McCain will not have any meaning until the dems have their nominee and we get much closer to November. Superdels aren't looking at polls as much as cash.
Now, if your post had financial data in it, such as Sen Clinton's massive campaign debt compared to Sen Obama's Mean Green Machine, well, then you would have a point...
Oh, wait, no you wouldn't, because Sen Clinton will not be the nominee.
Pax,
M.
May 23, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
OTTO F. Thank you for giving us another reason why Hillary shouldn't further jeoperdize the chances for presumptive nominee when it's abundantly clear that she will not be the nominee.
While she changes the goal posts inches away from Obama everytime, no ones asks her how she can be the nominee when she is miles and miles away from the same goal posts she designed.
May 23, 2008 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dole for Pineapple! Not for Senator!
May 23, 2008 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is some great info - and especially pertinent for a general election taking place next Tuesday.
May 23, 2008 8:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
With the exception of Jesse Helms, getting relected to the Senate is this state's political Mission Impossible.
It also hasn't gone unnoticed that Libby hasn't done a damn thing for the state or the nation since she got to the Senate other than be GWB's favorite lap poodle and he's finally even worn out his welcome even here.
May 23, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, she did work to expand the Republican majority in 2006.
As a Democrat, I'd like to say "Thanks, Libby!"
May 23, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
She's about as bright as George Allen. We'll be seeing many of these starry-eyed know-nothings ejected this year.
May 23, 2008 2:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wait til we get past the Primary hoo hah ...
I for one will do all in my power to help elect a Democrat to the NC Senate seat now held by Senator Dole.
I will canvass whereever needed, contribute money, drive people to the polls, whatever it takes!
one db in NC
May 23, 2008 2:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd actually forgotten Dole was an NC Senator, and I'm originally from NC!
Heckuva job, Libby!
May 23, 2008 2:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama will help deal Dole the knockout blow.
Damn, I can't wait for November!
Fired up! Ready to go!!
May 23, 2008 2:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!!! FOR REPUBLICANS!!!!
DOLEMENTUM!!
-sorry idiotic, couldn't resist.
May 23, 2008 2:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tie Bush policies around the neck of Dole. She needs to be replaced.
May 23, 2008 2:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Damn you newfapalooza, you stole my joke! :-)
May 23, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sen. Dole is on her way out! The democratic cabdidate will slowly move up in th3e poles. look for a 54%-46% win for her in Novemeber.
May 23, 2008 2:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whatever you do, don't fall off the stage. If you do, it's over.
May 23, 2008 3:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Time for e-voting to get a mjor software upgrade!
May 23, 2008 3:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Reading comprehension please. This post was about Dole/Hagan in NC.
May 23, 2008 5:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Those Gallup numbers up in the corner appear to be a reflection of what's taking place. Clinton runs stronger against McCain but democrats are 51-44 Obama. This is a weird election year.
May 23, 2008 7:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
in 2006, we won 6 of 7 senate seats in play
if those numbers hold, we're talking 18 or 19 seats
we could remove supreme court justices
the repuglitards don't understand it yet, but that's what we're playing for this round
67 seats in the senate and we have a Liberal majority on the SCOTUS for the next 40 years
May 23, 2008 9:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wonder how these polling firms can even publish these numbers with a straight face?
Didn't Democrats show up to the polls on Super Tuesday by a 2 to 1 margin, when compared to Republicans? I seem to remember the numbers went something like 15.2 million dems casted votes while 7 million reps pulled the lever. If we're showing up at the polls in twice the numbers, don't these polls seem outrageous?
I just don't see the Republicans getting all worked up about McCain in the same way the did with GWB in 2000 and 2004. Back then I half expected people to start speaking in tongues, handling serpents and chanelling spirits when GWB spoke at a campaign rally. McCain.... Not so much.
It's time that sombody put their foot down. And that foot is me.
May 23, 2008 10:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
As gung-ho as I've been to Dump Dole, I'm sorta sad now that 2006 isn't the re-election cycle for our even more pugnacious Republican Senator Richard Burr. I will celebrate the ouster of Liddy, but won't be satisfied until we have 2 Dem senators - or at least a *reasonable* purple delegation.
This Civitas survey is further proof to me that the latest SUSA for the Obama/McCain race in NC is a total outlier. SUSA has done a bad job of polling in NC all year, on the local as well as the national level. They never even got close in the Clinton/Obama primary here.
NC will be an interesting state to read, from a polling perspective. Because the state has grown so much since the 2004 election (and since 2006, it's outstripped NJ as the 10th largest US state), the formula for "likely voter" becomes key. This is also a state with a larger population of "young" voters, who are both harder to poll and less likely to be weighted as "likely" voters.
Maybe as it looks like the formulas are getting more precise and/or reflective of the reality I see on the ground, I'll change my mind, but for now I tend to add about 5% for Obama and subtract 2% for his opponent in most NC polls (not Zogby, though - they clearly have a better Obama algorithm in NC, however weird that seems).
The NC GOP is vicious, and the contest here will be ugly no matter what. That's just their style, unfortunately. But I definitely expect to see NC go strongly for Hagan and Obama.
May 24, 2008 11:22 AM | Reply | Permalink