With the House Democrats already up three seats from special elections, a lot of eyes are now looking to another potential pickup in either a special election or this Fall: New York's 13th District, home of the scandal-plagued GOP Congressman Vito Fossella, where the national GOP leadership is frantically trying to push him out and take their chances on an open seat.

Fossella would be considered safe under normal circumstances -- but these are certainly not normal circumstances after he was arrested for drunk driving, called his girlfriend to pick him up from jail, and then had to admit that he had a girlfriend and a child with her outside of his marriage. Since then, the New York and Washington press and political operatives have practically been on a running deathwatch.

There is no question that the Republicans want him out -- indeed, the leadership has been reaching out to a potential new candidate. However, those close to Fossella say he's prepared to stay in, and a recent SurveyUSA poll showed early support at home despite the scandal.

The question, then, becomes whether Fossella's baggage will truly put this seat up for grabs, and which candidates will step forward to run a very tight, very expensive race.

This seat is the only New York city district carried by President Bush in 2004, giving him 55% of the vote. However, the Democrats have won much redder districts than this one in the recent special elections, so it's not any kind of a stretch to see it becoming competitive or even going Democratic in an open-seat race in the midst of a Democratic wave.

The first problem the GOP faces is what to do about Fossella. Many of them want him to go, and Minority Leader John Boehner and NRCC head Tom Cole have both contacted Staten Island District Attorney Dan Donovan about potentially running for the seat. Donovan currently serves about four fifths of the district and was re-elected with 68% of the vote in 2007, so he could be a very strong candidate.

Donovan is playing it cool for now, though. "Obviously everyone's waiting to see what the Congressman does, so we would pretty much take it form there," Donovan communications director William J. Smith told TPM Election Central. "The D.A. hasn't decided that he would be a candidate even if there was a vacancy, so obviously he would wait for the Congressman to make a decision."

The Democrats do have a candidate waiting in the wings: New York City Councillor Domenic Recchia, who hails from the Brooklyn part of the district and already has $325,000 cash on hand for the race. That's not much in the New York media market, but it's actually more than Fossella has -- as many seemingly safe incumbents don't see a need to raise too much money.

On top of that, Recchia could have a national party committee much more able to spend money on the race than Fossella or any other Republican would get. The DCCC had $32 million cash on hand at the end of March, compared to only $7 million for the NRCC -- so the GOP will likely have to conserve resources and focus on cheaper races, unless something radically changes, while the DCCC will be at greater liberty spend big on targeted races.

A big part of how this works out could come down to money. Are the Republicans truly willing to spend precious money on supporting a Fossella re-election bid? Probably not. And in the case of an open-seat race, the Dems could bring a lot more resources to bear, putting a seat in play that wasn't even remotely in question a mere two weeks ago.