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Final PPP Poll: Hillary Ahead In Indiana, But Obama Closing The Gap

The final survey of Indiana from Public Policy Polling (D) shows Barack Obama getting some last-minute momentum in this key state, but with Hillary Clinton still ahead. The results, compared to last week:

Clinton 51% (+1)
Obama 46% (+4)

Sample size: 831 likely primary voters.
Margin of error: ±3.4%

From the pollster's analysis: "Hillary Clinton is probably going to win Indiana. But more than likely it will be by a smaller margin than the one Obama wins by in North Carolina, which means the nomination will be just two states closer to Obama's hands."


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which means the nomination will be just two states closer to Obama's hands

ZOMG!!! PPP is in teh tank for Obama!

Well, I certainly hope this reflects the truth.

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Eric,

Great job with the new format for blog posts on polls. Thanks for including the extra info on Margin of Error and sample size. Very helpful to have that context at hand when reading.

Pander vs. principle on the gas tax.

My guess is that is the main reason he is closing in. Probably too late for a W, but turnout will be important as usual.

If you support Obama, get on the phones now.
If you support Hillary, go figure out how to work that coffee machine.

My guess for the closing polls is the lack of Wright on TV for the last few days. He always rebounds when they stop beating that horse to death.

Did you happen to watch any MSNBC over the weekend? It was a non-stop Wright marathon with the Abrams special and Meet the Press every time I clicked over there.

Nobody watches Abrams.

He needs to stick to managing the station and stop talking. Replace his slot with Maddow.

I'd watch Maddow over Olbermann!


Maddow is great, but KO is my fav.

The CW on MSNBC today is that the non-stop Wright coverage in Chicago (with helicopter coverage of Wright's new house being built) has Clinton up double digits in a critical media market in NW IN.

This will probably offset the early voting, leaving IN a wash. And the likewise MSNBC CW is that a split decision does not help Sen Clinton. She has to win both states.

Were one to put any stock in CW, particularly MSNBC's. The copter coverage is astoundingly infantile.

Pax,
M.

Obama's campaign ads have been in full rotation here on the local Indiana stations. He's also been effective at sending out mailers, just this morning as I went out to go get something to eat there was a door knob flyer I found on my door and all the other residents' doors where I live. The MSM is too pro-Clinton, and its mostly because the former President endorsement she has from her husband.

I predict late breakers in Indiana will lean Obama after this Gas Tax Holiday gambit that seems to have totally blown up in Hillary's face. My prediction: Dead heat, separated by ZERO votes.

Any word on where the candidates will be tomorrow night?

Screw all this guess-work. Let's get to voting! Come on, Tuesday! Let's end this primary, all ready.

Lieberman or Obama. Choose one all ready.

She wins the double header and the nomination in June.

Gas prices and Iran mistakes by Obama with more mistakes to come from this rookie.

Too many problems do have a rookie with no solutions be the nominee.

Didn't you predict a 20% margin for Hill in PA?

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Actually it was 30%.

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You are an insufferable little troll twit. Stop sniffing glue.

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What nobody talks about is that each state Hillary doesn't win by more than 70% lessens her chance of overtaking Obama.

Super delegates are NOT going to overturn this election. They know if they do so they will lose many of the first time voters new to this election and probably a large chunk of the African American vote. If that happens we will have four more years of GOP hacks in the white house.

Aye. That Obama money machine cannot be inherited by Clinton, and green is the color elected supers see.

any idea if Survey USA will release a poll on North Carolina today? They did release one on Indiana.

Notice how they said clings.

I don't buy it.

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Eric - iz dat really you?


Another really good post in a row - pop your collar, dude.

You are great today.

Someone slipped kool-aid into his coffee.

Something that I have not seen discussed:

The Wild Card in Indiana.

Indiana has the most restrictive Voter Photo ID
requirements in the nation. The Supreme Court just ruled that it is legal.

How might that affect all those people who do not have a driver's license.

Will it depress the vote in poor urban areas, and
might it also impact a sizable number of elderly voters who no longer have up to date drivers' licenses?

Does anyone have an on the ground reporting on this possible disruption of the voting patterns tomorrow?

Yes, he will lose by 10 and 2 in NC.

There ya go wanker.

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You are not only pathologically wrong you are an insufferable little troll twit.

Stop sniffing glue.

Quite whining. ;)

very good questions, Liam!

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That has popped into and out of my mind repeatedly lately and I've purposely tried to shove it out.

I don't even want to think about it. It truly scares me silly.

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Don't worry about that Tena, it's not like 1,134,427 voters were purged in Indiana, right?

What is that you say?

http://www.bbvforums.org/cgi-bin/forums/board-auth.cgi?file=/1954/73758.html

Oh, shit.

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thank you so much for that link - I immediately felt so much better.


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Yes, everyone worries about urban voters, but what about the elderly?

Which break towards Clinton?

This restrictive voting law might make Indiana a wash.

Preparing a concession speech complete with conspiracy paranoia?

oops, that was to the always charming Liam

Why thank you. Now stop your whining.

I just got an e-mail from the Obama campaign asking me to volunteer in their effort to register voters for November. Since she didn't do anything even when she was sitting on a big pile of money for an easy re-election campaign in 2006, I'm sure the Clinton campaign isn't doing anything now to help the party and the party nominee in November.

You silly. The Democratic party exists to help the Clintons, not vice versa.

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THIS IS IDIOTIC NEWS!!! FOR HILLARY!!1

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Q: If hillary cares so very much about oil prices why is she promising to break up OPEC? Does she not understand that saber rattling by potential US presidents (although she has no chance in hell of winning) can cause uncertainty in the oil trading markets and drive up prices?

Clinton: OPEC 'can no longer be a cartel'


Clinton's attacks on oil prices as artificially inflated, Enron-style, keep escalating, and today she appeared to threaten to break up the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

"We’re going to go right at OPEC," she said. "They can no longer be a cartel, a monopoly that get to gether once every couple of months" at a hotel in "some plush place in the world" to set prices, she told a crowd a volunteer fire house in Merillville.

It's a potent message, like the attack on "Wall Street money grubbers," with deep roots in American politics. It's also very hard to figure out what exactly she means by the threat to break OPEC.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0508/Clinton_OPEC_can_no_longer_be_a_cartel.html

OPEC better heed Hillary The Furious, or she will Obliterate them.

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The sad thing is having said this, if Hillary were to win the nomination (which she won't) gas prices would go up because of this comment.

Can she do...anything against OPEC? Even as President?

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Short of war? No.

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Speaking of which Hillary has now unveiled her War strategy.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/5/143339/5685/3/509508

Basically, Hillary's position = McCain's position.

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LOLOLOLOLOL!!!!

no.

I heard this on the radio this morning and I thought my hearing must be going bad. She's going to break up OPEC? How's she going to do that? Threaten them with another gas tax "holiday"?

And promptly, oil price crossed $120 a barrel first time ever today.

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PPP's miserable failure in Pennsylvania casts some doubt on these results, despite a relatively accurate track record in previous contests. Oddly enough, PPP and SUSA's disagreement this time around doesn't seem based on sample weighting.

PPP's sample puts Indiana's African American vote at 12% (Obama wins 81/13), SUSA at 10% (Obama wins 77/21). Otherwise, SUSA's sample demographics look generally more favorable for Obama, with 52% of LV/Actual voters between 18-49 years (SUSA 18-34 Obama 53/42, 35-49 Clinton 55/42), while PPP has only 41% of LVs aged 18-45 (PPP 18-29 Obama 53/41, 30-45 Obama 47/45). SUSA's gender weighting also diverges pretty significantly from PPP's poll, with likely Indiana voters at only 52% female (Clinton 60/38). PPP has Indiana women at 56% of the total electorate (Clinton 53/40). Obama competitiveness in troublesome seems to explain PPP's result.

Looks to me like two very different results from PPP and SUSA. SUSA paints a very grim picture for Senator Obama. Using their numbers here, I get 717 total LV/AV (from a sample of 1400). If Senator Obama wins African Americans (10% of the electorate, according to SUSA) by a familiar 9 to 1 ratio, he will still lose by 10 points, 55-45. Without breaking out in those core Hillary demographics with the sort of numbers shown in the PPP poll, Senator Obama has no chance. I wonder which poll will be right this time?

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I should clarify a few points since I forgot to proofread most of my post. That 717 is the total Likely Voter and Actual Voter count from SUSA's poll. At 10% of the electorate, 72 of those voters would be African American. An Obama 9-1 win in that demographic means Obama 65, Clinton 7, and approximately Obama 257, Clinton 387 amongst whites (so Obama 322, Clinton 394 overall, a 55-45 Clinton win). Obama's better performance with women and "middle aged" 30-49 aged voters in PPP's seems to make the real difference here.

Add helicopter coverage of Rev Wright's new house being built in Chicago seeping into the NW IN media market. It's All Wright All the Time. Chicago has their OJ, it seems.

It will be up to the people of IN to see through the lies and deception.

All that aside, I think it will be razor thin in IN. These days it is hard to find a cogent debate in support of Sen Clinton that does involve tearing down people, institutions, and soverign states.

Obama NC by 15 and IN by 2-4.

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Mmmmmmm - very sweet.

from your keyboard to the screens of the gods and goddesses!

Any poll showing Obama with more than 45% is music to my ears. 47% is my breakpoint for being happy about Indiana.

Once again, don't worry about NC. My home state is prime Obama country.

Quick Oilbama trolls, Oilbama is losing. Immediatly get your Oilbama media trolls to suggest taking Hillary into a back room and kill her, and have an Oilbama rally and cheer while one of you calls Hillary a F*cking Wh*re. You need to keep up this classy campaign about Hope and Change.

I believe you will all burn in hell.

Love the last sentence. Lol.

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Stop sniffing glue.

You remain a sad, vile little creature.

See you there.

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O I already booked my space on the 2d Level of Hell - where the rest of the Lustful are spending eternity.

Partay!

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Ah, The Return of Troll Critic 3000!

As welcome as Han Solo flying to Luke's rescue at the end of Star Wars. "Let's blow this thing and go home!"

No thank you. You're quite welcome to burn in hell, though.

Dream on!

I predict Hillary will win Indiana by double digits!

And that will give her more moronmentum than ever!

"Dream on" is right, Rae K. Better vote for Obama in the general, or you can kiss Roe vs. Wade goodbye.

"Iran mistake," gotalife? Oh, you must mean Hillary's reckless threat to "totally obliterate" it...at last, that irresponsible remark is getting some media play! Certainly took long enough. If Obama had said such a stupid thing, we'd be hearing about it round-the-clock for a week.

It's always good to vote for the Democrat in a Democratic primary--hence I'll be voting for Obama tomorrow.

Clinton has no hope winning NC. With 35% of Votes being from AA at 9-1 for him, the Olibama guy has 31.5% already in his pocket. He needs to win only 28.5% of all other votes to win NC. So there is no chance in the hell that he will lose NC tomorrow. So there may be a reverse Bradley effect in all NC polls. All those pollsters showing Clinton within 5% should start doing something else for a life. I pray Mrs. Clinton stay within 10% of Olibaam, that will be a huge win.

Indiana is on the other hand a supposed last battleground. If Clinton wins by double digit, people will ask, how cannot Obama do better in his neighboring state? One has to wonder, had MO voted at this time, would Obama have even be able to get an even split of delegates?

Olbermann hilariously summarizes the Clinton campaign's moving goalposts:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L9qd-P2bIiY

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