« Hillary: All Evidence Says I'm The Stronger Candidate | Home | New Ad In Puerto Rico: "Soy Barack Obama" »

Dem Party Lawyers Say Rules Committee Can't Seat Full Delegations

In what could potentially be a blow to Hillary's electoral hopes, such as they are right now, the Democratic National Committee's lawyers have declared that the Rules and Bylaws committee lacks the legal authority to seat the full Florida and Michigan delegations.

The DNC's lawyers sent a memo late yesterday to members of the committee telling them that the two states must lose half of their convention delegates for skirting party rules and holding earlier elections.

That's trouble for Hillary, who is pushing for a full seating of the delegations to narrow Obama's pledged del lead and to proclaim herself the popular vote winner in order to argue that Dem primary voters didn't render a clear verdict on their preference as nominee.

We've got the relevant part of the memo for you in our TPM Document Collection.

One way the delegations could end up being seated in full is if the Credentials Committee takes up the matter in late June -- but this would mean that the fight would drag on to the convention, because any Credentials Committee ruling would go to the convention floor for a vote.

Outstanding questions right now: Is there some sort of maneuver that could get around this apparent contraint, or does this mean that the only way for the full delegations to be seated is for this to go to the convention? What do the Hillary forces have to say about this, and what will they do?

More on this soon.


228 Comments

| Leave a comment

Seat them but strip them of ANY vote on the nominee.

user-pic

"Hillary's electoral hopes, such as they are right now,"

Closest thing to a concession we've heard for our favorite Greg(with one g).

That must have hurt... but its a start.

The first of twelve steps?

"Hillary withdrawal" may well become the latest psychological identity grouping.

user-pic

"Is there some sort of maneuver that could get around this apparent constraint...."

The memo apparently says no.

user-pic

Yeah


I don't know what to say other than the Democratic Party has every right to set the rules for this process, and if that's what they are saying, then the only maneuver is to talk them out of it.

It's party rules - so if they want to follow the rules, ok. If not, they will have to give some kind of reason why not, I suppose.
But the Party is in charge of what happens - I think it's up to the committee.

Well. I’m kind of disappointed. You guys are so excited that the rules ACTUALLY!!! LOL YAHOO!!! Favor Barack. You shouldn’t be. He followed the rules. And Mrs. Clinton is trying to break them. I really think you should all delve a little deeper into why that is, rather than doing a victory dance.

The Democratic Party sanctioned Florida and Michigan why?

What where they trying to do this cycle, and keep other BIG states from doing in the next cycle?

What implications does NOT doing this have for future elections, and big states moving their primaries forward?

Why would the Democratic Party want to stop states from moving their primaries forward in future contests?

What would Primary contest anarchy look like?

Why did Hillary and Barack agree to these sanctions at the beginning of the contest? (not to mention every other Democrat running for POTUS this cycle?)


Pssst….. I’ll give you a hint. That is what we should be talking about….

Not running victory laps, giving Obama High fives because we killed Clinton….

That is insulting to Clinton supporters who deeply deeply want her to win. Followers who have been told by Mrs and Mr Clinton that this is a fight worth having…

I would suggest that you explain why the rules are the way they are. And its probably best not to shack your walnut sack at them and tell Clinton supporters to “Stick THAT in their ass, BITCH” I think that might make them unhappy. Whether they are trolls, or normal Hillary fans who check out TPM and look at comments curious about what bloggers are talking about.

But that’s just my humble opinion.

user-pic

Raspy, perhaps you could explain in what way this comment applies to my or Tena's comments?

user-pic

I've just read the materials, and a few comments:

--There seems to be a fair argument that the DNC member superdelegates must be seated (but not the elected officials).

--Michigan is asking the Rules Committee to do something (the 69-59 allocation) that it seems the Rules Committee just can't do; only the Convention, on recommendation of the Credentials Committee, could do that. They were also seeking to have delegates get half-votes (so they could send the same number of bodies to the convention), which apparently is not contemplated under the rules (which refer to a reduction in the delegates, not the vote).

user-pic

Interestingly, although the MI discussion seems to dismiss the 69-59 alternative, there seems to be an opening in the legal discussion re FL for an argument that since the primaries violated the timing rule, they could be treated as non-binding as to the allocation of the delegates.

So, maybe there is an ability for the Rules Committee to reduce the number of delegates in each state by half and then allocate them as they wish. That might fly in MI since the party is behind the 69-59 ratio, but I can't see them doing that in FL unless the state party came up with a similar proposal.

As I told Greg in reply to his very first post on this subject, the Rules Committee action is indeed extra legal

This is a matter for the Credentials Committee. Rules has no jurisdiction to decide anything and any decision it purports to make would void ab initio

Any lawyers on TPM that can go through the document and determine if there are any loopholes?

A quick reading would say no. They view the 50% reduction as an "automatic sanction" for breaking the Timing Rule, and on the face of it, there doesn't look to be any way around that.

If they decide to employ the long standing 50% rule for those that hold early primaries, will they be setting a precedent that also requires them to cut N.H. and South Carolina in half?

I understand there was an especially stringent penalty for states that broke the four-state pledge, FL and MI, but couldn't one argue that if you decide to employ that 50% rule, you must do it consistently?

user-pic

I assume that the waivers given to those states were properly applied for and granted under the rules. And in any event I suppose that nobody's interested in making such a challenge.

The DNC has a problem with the unequal applicatioon of the rules here....it would seem NH, SC and Iowa also should have been punished, but weren't.

Here's a good post about the rules and such from a NH blog back in Feb.

http://www.democracyfornewhampshire.com/node/view/5465

What a mess.

user-pic

That really does not tell the whole story. The DNC recognized New Hampshire's first primary status in its approved calendar. Because of the MI and FL maneuvers, NH law required its primary to be moved forward to January 8. It was entirely consistent for the Committee to grant the waiver requested by New Hampshire.

user-pic

Sure - want to pay me to do it?


LOL!

Just kidding.

I'm gone anyway.

Time to get lawyered up.

To what end?

But you don't really care, anyway. You just want destruction.

user-pic

They really should be seated 50/50. Again its changing the rules in the middle of the game. If Michigan and Florida were going to count in any meaningful way, then the candidates should have been allowed to campaign there. If that was the case the clintons would have lost michigan and Florida would have been very close and maybe a loss. This really is disgusting how the clintons are making up new rules and breaking rules in the middle of the game. They should not be permitted to steal the nomination by these outrageous games.

Seating them in full is a non-starter. There needs to be some punishment for breaking the rules.

I think that by that same token that halving each delegation is a non-starter. To a large state like Florida, losing half its delegates is a small price to pay for the benefits that accrue to an early state. In order to actually constitute a counter-incentive against line jumping, a state like FL would need to pay a much steeper penalty than just loss of half of its pledged delegation. I think that the best penalty would be one targetted specifically at the supers from each renegade state, because they are the ones (not the voters) who most directly caused the problems. In other words, it seems to me that any solution which does not include a stiff penalty against folks like Granholm, Levin, etc should be regarded as a non-starter.

More on this soon.
sigh . . .

That would appear to settle it. If Hillary cares at all about the good of the party, she will agree to this compromise and seat half the delegations. Obama already said he would agree to that.

She cares deeply about the party and wants to prevent it from making a grievous mistake... At least that's the argument I'm positive she would make.

And this ISN'T a compromise. The DNC's lawyers are basically outlining that the MOST that can happen is Michigan and Florida would be seated with 50% of their delegation. The RBC can keep their original ruling (no delegates) or allow up to 50%.

I say seat them at 50% with no vote on the nominee.

user-pic

There are two issues:

1. The clintons don't care about the democratic party.

2. Obama wants to avoid the popular vote argument at all costs. It hurts the legitimacy of his win and could cause long term damage to his candidacy and the party, which takes us back to point 1 again.

user-pic

It's a goddamn myth.

I am not even mad at the Clintons about this any more.

It's everyone else who fell in line and decided to treat Popular Vote like it's real.

I am mad as hell about that - it has hurt Obama and it could have been avoided, or at least a lot of it could have been if the damn press and pundits and bloggers had just insisted on the truth from the start instead of letting them do this and aiding them in it.

I'm out - I have things going on all day, pretty much. Later.

Told ya they would screw it up.

Take it to the convention floor and vote to fire Dean.

Nothing to take to the floor.

user-pic

Huh? Who would screw what up?

The Party! See, in GotALife's world, the Democrats don't understand Democracy well enough to competently run their own party. Of course, intelligent people here have explained that we're a Republic and all and what that means, but he doesn't actually read the posts, he just listens to the voices in his head.

Hillary's electoral hopes ("such as they are" - thank you for that one Greg!) aside, it's in her financial interest to drag this out longer. She can't retire that campaign debt unless she can continue to convince supporters that she is still fighting for the nomination. So fight she must, and fight she will. Ergo:

This is excellent news! For Hillary!

:-(

But the longer she stays in, the more debt she accumulates (paying staff, travel expenses), etc...

You'd think that her efforts to raise more money would rapidly reach the point of diminishing returns as she tanks.

And, assuming she attempts to take this to the convention, wouldn't she at some point soon need to start aggressively campaigning against McCain? I mean, seriously, if she continues on she'll be rapidly digging herself a much bigger hole to get out of. Are there really that many people who would give her that much money with such piss-poor odds?

One way the delegations could end up being seated in full is if the Credentials Committee takes up the matter in late June -- but this would mean that the fight would drag on to the convention, because any Credentials Committee ruling would go to the convention floor for a vote.

I'm not completely clear on the etiquette here - does the Credentials Committee operate completely independently of Rules and Bylaws? In other words, is there anything to stop them from just fighting over this in June regardless of the ruling on Saturday?

user-pic

Nope, nothing prevents them from taking this all the way to the convention. The clintons can appeal the ruling on Saturday to the Credentials Committee and if they don't like that ruling, which they won't, it then can be appealed to the convention floor and it becomes a floor fight at the convention.

The only thing that could potentially stop them is for the supers to move en masse to obama and shut them down and hopefully shut them up. The problem is that they can whine and complain all the way to the convention floor regardless of what the supers do.

That's the key question....it seems to be answered on page 3 of the Doc Collection in the 4th full paragraph. The RBC and the Credentials Committee are independent of each other. The RBC doesn't have the authority to seat the entire delegation, and must at minimum apply the 50% reduction. If Hillary wanted to dispute that, the only thing to do would be to go the Convention in search of a Credentials Committee ruling that 100% of the delegation can be seated, I guess followed by a Convention vote in favor of that position...

A long shot for sure, considering the Credentials Committee and the RBC, though separate, are composed of many of the same members, and possibly the same chairperson? Need details on that again. Greg? Help?

Isn't the credentials committee made up of a proportional amount of DNC people, Obama people and Hillary people?

Meaning, Hillary will be outnumbered by DNC and Obama people?

user-pic

Yep, she would lose there again and then would take it to the floor.

From Ambinder:

Any RBC rulings could be appealed to the full credentials committee, which would probably consider the appeal at some point in July.

...

Because 20% of the credentials committee can affix their signatures to a minority resolution, there is a fair chance (that's a qualified conjecture) that the entire Democratic National Convention will get a chance to seat the Florida and Michigan delegation in some capacity. In this scenario, there will be, of course, a majority report that urges against such a seating.

Minority reports are rare, though, and tend to be associated with platform challenges.

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/03/minority_report_another_post_o.php

Yes, but all she needs to start a floor fight is a minority report from the Credentials Committee.

What irks me is that it seems like there's no mechanism to stop the 20% from making a minority report and taking it to the floor if they so choose.

user-pic

Yep, but that's democracy for you. Notwithstanding how much I despise the clintons, the rules are the rules and what's fair is fair. I just wish the clintons would abide by the rules, stop lying and ginning up nonsense conspiracy theories. All they are doing is damaging the party in the long run, but that still has nothing to do with the rules. It's just a major character flaw of the clintons.

It is okay to seat half the delegates with their proportional pledged delegates for Florida . . . but only just okay. It is not okay to seat half of the Michigan delegates unless they are awarded 50-50 because Obama was not on the ballot in Michigan. In both cases, many people didn't vote because they knew the rules.

Question: When does Clinton EVER know/obey the rules?

Another question: Why are so many women continuing to do battle for her in the face of all her lies and the "white candidate" flavor of her campaign. As a feminist before most of them were born, I just do not understand.

The delegates will be cut in half, MI will be seated 50/50 and FL will probably be seated as voted.

I don't think the RBC has the authority to award delegates to Obama that he did not receive. At least that's the gist of the memo. Which opens up a whole other can of worms.

Methinks, you strip them of 50% of their delegation, award delegates based on primary and then strip them of any vote on the nominee and any subsequent challenges to the RBC's ruling.

Ah. Thanks for the info. Well, then this should be very interesting, because seating any delegates based on the MI vote is a complete sham and any reasonable person knows that, Hillary supporter or not. Dijamo even admits as much.

Caveat: I also think that Obama's campaign took every opportunity to thwart revotes particularly in Michigan which would have allowed a fair allocation of votes and doesn't think he should derive any benefit from his cowardice. Allow MI to be split 50/50. FL should be seated at 100% based on the primary (benefiting Hillary). FL primary date was early as set by the state law, but the first 4 states got to vote first (IA, NH, NV, SC) - no harm no foul.

I never recognize your new avatar.

Why won't anyone believe that cute kitty on the screen is actually my photo?!?! Must everyone assume that all Hillary's supporters are 80 year old white HUMANS? :) I took my photo down because of stalker dude, but seriously I shouldn't have had it up anyway especially since I occassionally post at lunch (and maybe other times too) at work.

Lawyers you say? Are these the same ones that drafted the ambiguous pledges the candidates signed? Are these the ones that arbitrarily changed the rules to prevent states from deciding how they wanted to conduct their selection process?

Lawyers. This is going all the way to the convention and likely up the jurisprudence ladder to the Supreme Court if necessary.

Dean and his ilk are responsible for this mess, not the States, and not the candidates and not the voters.

Yes, there must be a price to be paid. Dean must be banished from the party.

Dean is a pathetic failure.

He has not raised enough money to pay for the convention in Denver. The RNC has kicked his ass.

He has embarrassed the party like Obama kool aid drinkers.

He should resign.

A miserable failure! It's not like he's getting Democrats elected and swelling the rolls of the party or anything . . .

Birds of an effin' feather, you two.

user-pic

"Are these the ones that arbitrarily changed the rules to prevent states from deciding how they wanted to conduct their selection process?"

There was nothing arbitrary about this. Terry McAulliffe decided some order had to be brought to the order of primaries and got a long deliberative process going to change the Rules to enforce the timing interests of the Party. Harold Ickes voted to enforce those new Rules. Then both of them suddenly decided that those Rules shouldn't apply to their candidate.

But..but...but, don't McAuliffe and Ickes run Hillary's campaign?! Isn't that hypocritical?!

Ah, the ambiguous language argument that you hung yourself with yesterday. haha! So ambiguous that you were unable to come up with one other interpretation. Damn those confusing words.

Sorry to interrupt your oubturst, but none of this is litigable in the federal courts. Supreme Court precedent establishes that the parties are quasi-private entities that can pretty much do any goddamned thing they want. You and I and gotalife could form a party tomorrow, establish rules making the person who gets the least votes the nominee. Then we could declare ourselves delgates, have our party convention under a bridge somewhere and then, since the rules would require us to nominate Obama, you two could vote to change the rules to nominate on the basis of a best two out of three Rock-Scissors-Paper competition, and keep changing it, to best three out of five or five out of seven or fifty out of ninty nine, until Hillary won and I would have no recourse in the courts. They'd say its your party and you can change the rules if you wanna.

Which is why the Democrats can have unelected superdelegates who, you guys have been saying, should vote for Hillary despite her loss of the primary process. Go join the other guys or form your own party if you don't like it.

user-pic
That's trouble for Hillary, who is pushing for a full seating of the delegations to narrow Obama's pledged del lead and to proclaim herself the popular vote winner in order to argue that Dem primary voters didn't render a clear verdict on their preference as nominee.

How is this trouble for a candidate who has dismissed the results from caucus states, from red states, from blue states, from the states that she hasn't won?

It would be trouble for someone living in the reality based world we seem to be, but Senator Clinton isn't living in that world. She, and her campaign, are living in the "just hang on until something happens" world. This isn't trouble, even if there are solid legal obstacles in her path.

We'll have the Brooks Brother "riot" on Saturday, and lots of proclamations about following the will of the people. She will drag this on to the Credentials Committee, because she, and her campaign, don't give a shit about the Democratic Party. Isn't that obvious at this point?

Why do we all insist on speaking as if Clinton really cares about anything but her own political ambitions?

She doesn't. It's all about the Clintons.

The sooner everyone recognizes that (Rules and Bylaw committee, and, those fricking superdelegates who won't declare) the better off the party will be.

You know you have a weak argument when you argue " that Michigan Democrats have been punished enough" so overturn the punishment.

What do the Hillary forces have to say about this, and what will they do?


We say take it to the convention:)

All votes from Michigan and Florida must be counted and all delegates must be seated. "IF" not then all caucus results should not count and all contest in American Somoa,Democrats Abroad,Guam,U.S. Virgin Islands should not count either....

go hillary!!!!!

Sweetie.
Let's compromise and say your opinion doesn't count.
'kay?

That's called cutting off your nose to spite your face.

Obama and his supporters want millions of Americans to be disenfranchised.

Clinton does not and will win this issue to show she is the strongest candidate.

You need these millions of votes to win the general stupid.

She doesn't anymore.

A few months ago, when she thought she still had a chance to win, she didn't care.

Don't feed the trolls.... These fuckers are trying to tear this party apart. Don't fall into his quagmire of shit...

The will do exactly what the rules call for: The delegates from both states will be counted at 50% since that's what the rules have always called for.

No more. No less.

Stripping them completely was a starting point for the DNC/Dean to negotiate from all along.

and yes, puerto rico shouldn't count either if michigan and florida aren't going to

Airtight logic if ever there was.

user-pic

What freakin' logic is demonstrated by this comment?

Don't count Puerto Rico, Florida and Michigan, and Senator Clinton's case goes straight into the crapper. HillaryClinton08? Great argument!

Stop drinking the kool aid man, she's making perfect sense.

user-pic

Sorry. The total absence of anything reasonable coming from Clinton supporters made me lose it for a brief moment.

I know this is a pained memory for us, but I have to say this because of Shrillary's ridiculous argument of obtaining the popular vote...

Al Gore won the popular vote in 2000, but it doesn't mean jack - look how 2000 turned out!

Need I say more about her argument on this??

All votes from Michigan and Florida must be counted and all delegates must be seated. "IF" not then all caucus results should not count and all contest in American Somoa,Democrats Abroad,Guam,U.S. Virgin Islands should not count either....and yes, puerto rico shouldn't count either if michigan and florida aren't going to.


In order to win the general election come this Novemeber and in order for obama to win without looking like he cheated & won like George Bush did in the general election in 2000, they have to count all delegates and all votes from both michigan and florida ..... better yet, lets have a re-vote on June 3rd.

By what definition is running according to the rules in place cheating?

The HRC camp's reckless arguments have persuaded some credulous souls to forget what it means to play by rules laid down in advance. But that's a really important principle. Talk about Mugabe.

"in order for obama to win without looking like he cheated "


How did he cheat again????


By following the rules, obviously. Orwell would love this.

So, you think Obama can win without these two States and without Clinton supporters?

Are you folks really that stupid?

Well, I reject the premise of your question since Obama and McCain are currently tied in Michigan and I don't believe most Hillary supporters will really vote for McCain, despite what you and fogu2 say.

Are you really a Democrat?

No. He's not at all. He doesn't even pretend anymore.

No, I don't think he is.

He's a script kiddie with mean parents.

Obama polls better in Michigan: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/michigan.html

Obama's campaign is working towards a solution that mitigates the fact that millions were disenfranchised by being told to stay home and prevents Clinton from stealing the votes of "Uncommitted" voters who specifically voted against her.

McCain will probably win Florida no matter what, and Obama will win Michigan by a landslide. So, this concept is nonsensical. I have many friends and family in MI who didn't vote in the primary for Obama BECAUSE THEY COULDN'T and are looking forward to voting for him in the fall. So shut up with the assinine "you can't win without those states" BS!

Here's the thing about "taking it to the convention".

If a Hillary campaigns in the forest, and nobody is listening, does she make a sound?

She can take herself anywhere she wants, but she's irrelevant.

Gotalife, you pathetic excuse for a human being - need we remind you that just last week the Clinton campaign was fighting to have the "uncommitted" votes from MI not counted at all??

Funny how she makes herself a crusader of preventing voters from being disenfranchized, yet when doing so turns out to hurt her chances, she suddenly goes against her own rhetoric and throw a group of voters under the bus.

Now there's a fighter! PATHETIC!!!

Don't feed the trolls. He is a Republican trying to do exactly what you are feeding into. He is trying to bait us into fighting him and make us look like asshole Hillary haters. Don't buy into it...

It was very clear last night when he couldn't use Democrat talking points to talk about the war.

user-pic

I agree completely with josephcast. Let's not fall into the GOP's trap. We need to be unified (as much as possible) to beat McBush in November. Pick your battles.

Listening to Rick Perlstein discuss his new Nixonland book on NPR last week, talking about how the GOP stole Humphrey and Muskie stationary and send out fake letters with them, I wondered -- isn't putting out divisive bullshit under a blog avatar (posing as a Dem) really an updated version of the same tactic? Again, let's not fall for it.

The first question addressed is what jurisdiction the RBC committee has, and the staff memo takes a fairly formalistic position on this. The staff memo says, the rules say that they must lose half the delegates, so half the delegates must be lost. There are other positions, though. One is based on the idea that the rules and bylaws committee can change the rules (note, though, that the original rules were approved by the whole DNC, not just the RBC). Another is based on the idea that the Rules and Bylaws Committee has to have jurisdiction over the penalty if they are charged with interpreting the rule. A third is based on the idea that the RBC can determine whether a breach of the rules actually occurred or not (e.g., Michigan might argue that any breach shouldn't matter because it was involuntary - the state made the call, not the party - or was in some way "justified"). Each of these arguments, though, has some pretty obvious flaws.

I know in state parties, there have been situations where local caucus results have been permitted to stand, often in some modified form or with some penalty, even where the rules were technically broken, in the interests of justice and fair representation. Rules Committee have been given fairly broad jurisdiction to determine an appropriate penalty, if any, for a breach, and been given very plenary power. BUT, the general rule of thumb has also been to enforce rules strictly where it affects the outcome of an election. And, it is often not the Rules Committee but another committee, like a Judicial Committee (or, in this case, the Credentials Committee) that gets the plenary power to bend the rules.

Any way you look at it, though, I think some penalty should apply here. The Republicans aren't seating their whole Michigan delegation, either. I certainly would be disappointed to see the Michigan party leadership, the people individually responsibile for this travesty, going to the Convention ex-officio.


user-pic

OK. So how far do you expect the Clinton campaign to take this? Past the Rules and Bylaws Committee?

user-pic

"One is based on the idea that the rules and bylaws committee can change the rules...."

But that's clearly not correct, right? The committee only interprets and applies the rules.

The Rules and Bylaws Committee proposes rules and bylaws that get approved by the DNC; so these rules were indeed drafted by the RBC. I don't know all the ins and outs of RBC jurisdiction, but I wouldn't dismiss this argument as frivilous.

When you say the DNC election process is akin to what happened in 2000, or to Zimbabwe, for goodness sake, you lose all credibility, IMHO.

Hillary might as well call Jim Baker in on this one.

I've got no idea. I would have thought they'd have stopped by now; I see no benefit to HRC from carrying on. And I started this campaign as an HRC supporter.

That was meant to be a reply to CT Voter above.

user-pic

Thanks.

I'm searching for sanity in this process, and not finding it.

Given this story, can anyone who's keeping score tell me how many delegates Barack would need to make the seating of the MI and FL delegates irrelevant? Can someone elucidate what the magic number would look like if half the delegations from those states were seated?

As it stands without them, Obama has 1,977 out of 2,026 needed to win... I'd love to see enough SDs come out after the 31st to make MI and FL irrelevant. I think that's the only way to put a stake through the heart of The Campaign That Would Not Die.

Seated at 50%, the number will be like 2110, right?

Okay, so the number without FL and MI is 2026 and the number with FL and MI seated with no penalty is 2208 - so if FL & MI's votes are halved, they'll have the equivalent of 91 delegates. Am I correct that it therefore adds 46 delegates to the magic number, making the new magic number 2,092?

...If Obama has 1,977 as of now, then that means he would need to get 115 more delegates to clinch the nomination instead of 49. That seems eminently do-able, doesn't it? Where are we likely to be after Tuesday? Couldn't we pressure enough super-dels to put this to rest after the 31st?

I think whatever the number is, after next Tuesday the SDs will come out for him as the pledged delegate winner and push him over.

From your mouth to God's ear, as they say.

Yes it will all be over next Wednesday when the wussy supers, who are afraid of disappointing the Clintons finally end this charade by Shrillary.

The Clintons will eat their children if they come out before!

Obama is already beating McCain in most polls before the campaign has even really started, so disgruntled Clinton supporters who won't vote for Obama obviously make a lot more noise on the intertubes than they have numbers in real life.

So the answer to your question, gotnolife, is that we indeed don't need you. So you can go Cheney yourselves.

This finding makes the scenario Rachel Maddow floated more likely politically.

But if Clinton really wants this to go to the convention, it will. She has said (correctly) that Superdelegates can change their minds, and also that neither she nor Obama can reach the number required to seal the nomination without at least some of the SDs. All of which is true. Because SDs can change their minds, this allows Clinton to cling to some hope that they will do so and ultimately choose her as the nominee.

According to The Green Papers, Seating the Michigan and Florida delegations as voted (which the above finding doesn't allow) would currently cut Obama's total delegate lead from about 200 to about 100.

But if there's some finding that the full delegation can't be seated, even if Obama were willing to allow that to try to stop the contest, then Clinton could use that as justification to take the fight to the credentials committee.

You can't win a contest that you've dropped out of, so Hillary may use this as justification to keep fighting past next week's contests.

I think after June 3, if Hillary starts making waves about taking it to the convention, the SDs will abandon her en masse.

Yeah, they've taken cover behind this "let all the voters be heard" shit but beyond early June, it's just an internal battle amongst party officials. I'd like to think they'd try and avoid this. For all the talk of "independent judgment" though, a lot of superdelegates have been reluctant to actually vote one way or the other. Makes you wonder what the point of them being superdelegates actually is.

They're politicians...they raise their heads up just long enough to figure out which way the wind is blowing, then they crawl back in their holes.

With what money is she going to keep fighting? If the SDs make it clear on the 4th which way the wind blows, I don't see how she can't financially keep her ship afloat. It's sinking as it is...

can't -> can

dagnabbit, aw warnt me n edit funkshin!

If Obama puts Sebelius as his running mate, it's virtually guaranteed Hillary will have been long forgotten by November.

Shrillary's supporters, at least a majority of them, support her because of her gender, not for the person herself. Every Clinton supporter I know is a supporter because she's a woman. OK, fine.

So, do you honestly think her supporters will still shun an Obama ticket shared with a strong female candidate who's someone other than Hillary??

HELL NO!!!

There really is some interesting stuff in this 38-page document. I don't know if TPM's got the whole thing, but it is available here:

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/pdf/5-31%20Meeting%20Materials.pdf

What I find very interesting is the chronology that begins on page 34. The argument that the Florida Democratic Party was the victim of a Republican legislature's scheduling of the primary is rendered so bogus here! The DNC proposed two alternatives to the Florida Democratic Executive Committee - a vote-by-mail process and a party caucus that would not be in violation of the timing rule. Further, the DNC offered $880,000 to help finance the caucus! But the pigheaded FDP would have none of it and voted to sanction the January primary.

Finally! Excoriating proof that Debbie Wasserman Schultz is a disingenuous bitch!

user-pic

Check out the vid from the FL DNC vote:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OIXBtHfr0C8

As Harold Meyerson wrote in today's Washington Post:

Not a single Clinton campaign official or DNC Rules Committee member, much less the candidate herself, said at the time that the sanctions imposed on Florida or Michigan were in any way a patriarchal plot or an affront to democratic values. The threat that these rules posed to our fundamental beliefs was discovered only ex post facto -- the facto in question being Clinton's current need to seat the delegations whose seatings she had opposed when she thought she'd cruise to the nomination.

Clinton's supporters have every right to demonstrate on Saturday, of course. But their larger cause is neither democracy nor feminism; it's situational ethics. To insist otherwise is to degrade democracy and turn feminism into the last refuge of scoundrels.

Scoundrels is what they are. As I wrote yesterday, the deal should be this: Seat the Florida and Michigan delegations in full after Hillary drops out.

At 50% of their original delegates and after Hillary ENDORSES Obama for the nomination (otherwise, she'll just revive her nomination at the convention).

user-pic

The Clinton campaign is like a monster that won't die in a horror movie. Entertaining in film, saddening in reality.

"Situational Ethics". That pretty much sums up the Clintons, I would say.

Actually, I think the term is all too kind. It would be more accurate to describe the Clinton approach this way: "Ethics? What ethics? We don't need no stinking ethics."

I think merely saying the word "ethics" would cause them to spontaneously combust.

user-pic

Michael said: The only thing that could potentially stop them is for the supers to move en masse to obama and shut them down and hopefully shut them up.

Which is exactly what is going to happen. Alot of the undeclared are folks like Donna Brazile and the Pelosi club who have made it pretty clear that they have no intention of overturning the process. At best Hillary gets 25% of the undeclared superdelagates. That is a net gain of 100 delegates for Obama. Then you have Hillary supers who have hinted that they will switch to Obama for the sake of the party.

Very soon we will have a scenario in which Hillary can't win no matter how you seat Florida and Michigan. What do we suppose Howard Dean has been planning for over the past few months? Heck, he is an undeclared superdelegate himself.

What's to stop Shrillary from just pulling a Lieberman and running as an Independent?

We all know she's that stubborn to throw her own party into further dissaray, but does anyone else but me think this will be the October surprise this Fall?

I don't know if she'd go that far. I mean, she's done some stupid stuff but that would burn all her bridges and really risk her political future.

Yeah, that's a whole new level that even she is not crazy enough to attempt...as far as I know.

user-pic

While I tend to doubt that she would do this, I think all of us need to take a step back and stop thinking that "Clinton won't do A or B, because A or B is just too out there, you know?"

She's talked about "hardworking, white Americans". About assassination, multiple times. She "misspoke", repeatedly, about the Tuzla episode. She is on record as saying "Michigan isn't going to matter". She's not grounded to reality in the same way that most other people are. Therefore, all bets are off in terms of what she might do.


I just don't think any sane person would think they have a chance as one of two liberal candidates running against a conservative. Even if she moved way over to the center as an independent, she's still the boogey man of Republicans. And what money would they fund this little expedition with? She'd tank the election for Obama but also ruin any chance that she'd be the nominee in 2012.

Maybe I'm being naive, but if the money ain't there, there is no independent run. I really doubt her major financial backers are so desperate to see her running just to tear apart the Party and ultimately lose.

Agreed. Money is the big problem for that idea. She is already deep in the hole and running a viable independent bid would cost big bucks that the doesn't have and almost certainly can't raise.

I'm with you. Who is going to fund her?

user-pic
In what could potentially be a blow to Hillary's electoral hopes

What are you talking about Greg?

This is exactly what she wanted. As Rachel Maddow pointed out, she was going to fight this all the way to the convention anyway. Her ruse was to argue that the FL & MI dels be seated in full, knowing full well the RBC would not give it to her, therefore giving her a chance to appeal. This appeal would take it all the way to the convention, giving her a reprieve of 2-3 months. And as we all know ANYTHING can happen in 2-3 months.

Rachel's suggestion was that Obama concede to all of Hillary's demands on these states (if he had enough superdels in his pocket for it not to matter). Therefore, she would get what she demanded and cut off her option to appeal (which is what she really wants)

The DNC legal team has cut off the potential of full seating, and with it the Obama option of cutting off her appeal. She can now go unimpeded to a convention fight or at the very least a legal fight with DNC lawyers.

I really think all but her most insane SDs will abandon her like rats from a sinking ship if she presses on after all the primaries are over and aims to take it to the convention. They may like Hillary, but they're not looking for a suicide pact.

user-pic

I hope you are right. She can do an awful lot of damage in 2-3 months.

I posted back to you upthread, but I think that Obama would need 115 more delegates instead of 49. I would think that after Tuesday we'll be pretty close to that with pledged delegates and SDs who were too chickenshit to vote before the primaries were through.

Right. Talk about drinking the Koolaid--Jonestown style.

Hyper,

Could not agree with you more! The members of the Rules and Bylaws Committee, as well as the Credentials Committee, are elected officials.

To vote for personal preference is wrong, but if they went against the delegate lead, popular vote, candidate with the best chance to double the Democratic voter base in November AND be competitive in red state congressional districts (something that would help both him and the Dem candidates in those districts)...

All of that would be nothing short of political suicide.

Are they actually going to commit political suicide for Hillary Clinton?????? Uhhhh, I think not!

I mean, seriously. I really don't believe that the vast majority of Hillary supporters are this batshit insane as to rip the party apart. I just don't. And no amount of fogu2 or gotalife stomping their feet will convince me.

The Republicans penalized violating states 50% of their delegates, without undue drama. And yes, it's unfortunate that the voters will lose half their vote... but these states *KNEW* they would be penalized if they violated the rules, and chose to do so regardless.

They did it because they thought it would be better to risk having half of an early, influential vote, rather than all of a later vote.


And indeed, it looks likely that their gamble paid off, because they are, in fact, going to have delegates seated, and the candidate who won their primaries has repeatedly claimed that the win was important, with some success.

So, since the states got the benefit of going early, why shouldn't they pay the price for doing so?

Back to Shrillary running as an Independent, I hate saying this, but anything is possible.

Think about it - her campaign debts will long have been paid off. Terry and Wolfie will be watching the polls like hawks and, God fobid, if Obama drops in any national polling, they'll deem that reason enough to revive the campaign as Independent.

Keep in mind that the Clintons have never lost anything. To have her drop out will be the first Clinton loss, something they cannot tolerate. By her jumping back into the race, this will be their attempt to erase that loss from record.

These are the Clintons we're talking about - of course they'll stoop to this!

Impossible for her to assemble the legal team(s) to go to each and every state to get her on the ballot in time. The time, the money (for the legal team, flights, etc), the legal team(s) required make it impossible. Not gonna happen....

lets break this down.....

Since Guam, Democrates Aboard, US Virgin Islands and American Samoa, puerto rico, since they can't vote in a general election.....maybe we shouldn't allow them to vote during this process.

Also Caucusing is not right for the fact that most people work when they are being held or some people don't have time to come stand in a room for several hours..... we don't have caucusing during the general election.... maybe we shouldn't all those to count during this process.

Why allow those areas to count when we are willing to dismiss the state of michigan and florida.......what made it right for other states to hold there primires early but they couldn't. Does not seem democratic to me:(

so lets not count these places, since we aren't going to count michigan & florida by full value.

Guam: obama 2 delegates, hillary 2 delegates
Democrates Abroad: Obama 4 delegates, Hillary 2 delegates
US Virgin Islands: Obama 3 delegates, Hillary 0 delegates
American Samoa: Obama 1 delegate, Hillary 2 delegates.

Washington State: obama 52 delegates, hillary 26 delegates
Nevada: obama 14 delegates, hillary 11 delegates
Idaho: Obama 15 delegates, hillary 3 delegates
wyoming: obama 7 delegates, hillary 5 delegates
Colorado: Obama 36 delegates, hillary 19 delegates
Main: Obama 15 delegates, Hillary 9 delegates
Texas: obama 38 delegates, hillary 29 delegates
new mexico: obama 12 delegates, hillary 14 delegates
North Dakota: obama 8 delegates, hillary 5 delegates
Nebraska: Obama 16 delegates, hillary 8 delegates
Kansas: Obama 23 delegates, Hillary 9 delegates
Minnestoa: Obama 48 delegates, hillary 24 delegates
Iowa: Obama 25 delegates, Hillary 14 delegates.

that gives obama: 319 delegates without including puerto rico since we don't now what is going to happen on June 1st.

that gives hillary: 182 delegates without including puerto rico since we don't now what is going to happen on June 1st.

so lets take the 319 delegates away from obama and the 182 delegates away from hillary.....

that would give obama 1340 in pledged delegates and hillary 1317 in pledged delegates.... so off to montana and south dakota, here we come.

I guess all eyes we have to be placed on the super delegates to make that final decision who the winner should be......

since we aren't going to count michigan and florida ( and SHOULD NOT count the above caucuses and non-states)

haha, so even in your insane scenario, Hillary still loses!

user-pic

Huh? Why count any votes at all? We should have just given it to the clintons last year and avoid all this drama, right?

Are you kidding me? I hope that was a parody since that's the most insane rationalization I've heard since Joe Pesci in JFK.

That's as credible as: "I did not have sex with that woman, Miss Lewinsky..."

LOL

Look, if a blow job doesn't count as "sex," and "is" depends on what the meaning is "is" is, and not inhaling means you really didn't smoke dope, then I guess anything goes. Clearly, too much of Bill rubbed off on Hillary.

My better angels stopped me before I replied to your "Bill rubbed off on Hillary" line.

My better angels are not as good as yours--see below.

EEWWWW.

Apologies for the poor imagery on my part.

user-pic

It will be interesting watching you try to not count Texas and the other caucus states, but talk about non-Democratic! Yeah - let's throw out all the votes that all those voters who lined up after work for hours to caucus cast.

Indeed - do that. That is definitely Clinton-style democracy, that is.

Penalize the caucus states and the other 48 who followed the rules as well as the territories, just so Hillary can win.

Why the hell not? George Bush and Karl Rove did it - 4 times.

So we ought to be used to having elections stolen by bullshit.

Interesting analysis you have, except that caucuses are perfectly legal within the rules of the DNC. Why would you want to disenfranchise voters/states who followed the rules?

With all due respect, whether or not U.S. territories should count, or whether states should be allowed to choose to caucus, simply isn't your decision to make, and certainly not retroactively.

If you'd like to see these rules implemented *for future primaries*, get involved with the party and work to get these rules changed from the inside.

Until then you're just blowing hot air and making yourself look foolish.

They should stick with the 50% penalty since it will neutralize the GOP. How could the Republicans run ads taking advantage of the situation in those states since it will be exactly the same penalty that the Republicans imposed on MI/FL?

The Clinton camp is holding a spin session on this memo at 8:30.

"so lets not count these places, since we aren't going to count michigan & florida by full value."

In my alternate universe Al Gore is finishing up his 2nd term.

"since we aren't going to count michigan and florida ( and SHOULD NOT count the above caucuses and non-states"

WTF is a non-state?

Why dont you just argue that the facts are unfair to Hillary, therefore we should ignore them. It would save you alot of typing...

actually hyperrevue if you remove the super delegates from the caucus states and from the non-states.... hillary would have the right amount of super delegates to push her over the top and be the winner.............. GO HILLARY!!!!!!!!!!

haha! Congratulations on your victory, Senator Clinton.

Yay, Hillary Clinton is President of Fantasyland!!

THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR HILLARY!!!

"If 'ifs' and 'buts' were candy and nuts, we'd all have a hell of a Christmas" -- James Carville

It was the gop majority in those two States that pushed up the primary.

The DNC did not punish the other States that moved up.

Just count their votes now or will not get them in the general.

Then fire Dean.

In Florida the bill to move the primary was introduced by a Democrat and all but one of the dems voted for it. The dem governor signed the bill into law.

In Michigan it was the state Democratic Party that was responsible for moving the primary up.

I actually don't really get why places like PR, Guam, American Samoa vote in the primary.

Can anyone enlighten me?

Generally, they have Democratic Party organizations (or organizations that are affiliated with the Democratic Party), and run local candidates, elect members to Party committees, etc. So, the Parties decided to give them a small vote in the primaries - both parties do this. It helps build the local party structure and ties. These places also have non-voting representatives in Congress.

Exactly what I was looking for. Thanks.

user-pic

Simple, the rules. The "primaries" are not like the general election or an election for that matter. It's up to the parties to set the rules. We didn't even have primaries until New Hampshire started to have a primary, sometime in the first 1/2 of the 1900's. It was the first primary and states didn't want to pay for primaries. In fact, there weren't even caucuses, it was just party people getting together and selecting the party's nominee.

So, the dem party wants to include Americans abroad and territories to give them a say in the nominee. They really don't get enough delegates to matter anyway, but it gives them a say in the process. It's actually good for the party to get as many people involved in the process.

Nonetheless, this nonsense about caucuses not counting and the like is garbage. The party could ban all primaries if it wanted to and just do caucuses or do whatever it wanted to come up with a nominee. That's why this lawsuit garbage is just garbage as well. As long as the party follows it's own rules, it is what it is. Sorry clintonites, it's not the clintons' party, but the Democratic Party.

user-pic
actually hyperrevue if you remove the super delegates from the caucus states

Well hell yeah! If that's all that's keeping her from declaring victory - take our supers and our caucus votes away.

Try that, Hillary - see what happens.

We all know HillaryClinton08 is insane. But what's scarier is that I can totally see Bill getting all red in the face and waving his finger at the camera while making that exact same argument.

user-pic

Well I can too - but Bill isn't right.

I'm convinced he's pump-headed. It doesn't mean his brain no longer functions, it just isn't as sharp as it was and I think he's far more emotional than he used to be.

I put that down to his by-pass. I could be fooled - maybe that's really just Bill.

I no longer know..

however, i believe that the delegates from michigan and florida will be seated in full and the votes will be counted as is...... which will help hillary win the democratic race against Barack Hussein Obama, Jr. come this convention in denver.... go hillary......


"IF" by chance he does win,..... just think you are going to be putting a HUSSEIN in the white house..... HAAAAAAHHHHAAAAHAHAHA

user-pic

Putting an Hussein in the White House is exactly what my aim has been since the start.

I think it's the very best thing America can do to try to start healing some of the very serious shit that Bush has gotten us into with the Muslim world.

That was one of the major selling points for me - a president names Barack Hussein Obama - right from the start - when I didn't yet know who I was going to support.

So your little ugly comment just backfired bigtime.

How does electing a president named Hussein help "start healing some of the very serious shit that Bush has gotten us into with the Muslim world"?

Unless you're expecting the Arabic-speaking peoples of the world to be as ignorant and arbitrarily judgmental as, say, West Virginians, and base their opinions of a man on something as superficial as a name, I don't know how one would make any such argument.

user-pic

O come on - most of the rest of the world equates America with Bush and he has spent the last 8 years fanning the flames of jingoism.

If Americans elect someone like Barack, it goes a long way toward showing the rest of the world that America isn't George Bush.

Jesus - it's perception and it matters and that's not my only reason - it was simply the earliest attraction Obama held for me before I knew who I was going to support.

And I'm not alone in this - another friend of mine pointed that out to me almost a year ago and I still think it's true - I don't care what you say.

I think we're in agreement. I'm just uncomfortable saying it's a good thing that Arabic-speaking people might form positive perceptions of him solely on account of his name, while simultaneously scolding others for forming negative impressions of him for the same reason.

user-pic

I agree with you about the healing in the mideast, Tena. And I think Andrew Sullivan does as well.

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200712/obama

user-pic

HillaryClinton08,

Do you really think this kind of rhetoric is going to sway the superdelegates toward your candidate?

Know your audience.

I seriously doubt that the American people, who spent hundreds of billions of dollars and sacrificed the lives of thousands of Americans to get rid of one Hussein, will put another Hussein in the White House. Why is it that everyone named Hussein hates American democracy?

THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS! FOR HILLARY!!!

"actually hyperrevue if you remove the super delegates from the caucus states and from the non-states...."

to quote Ronny Reagan: "There you go again..."

Actually HillaryClintonlostin08, this is not reality. we only have STATES here.

Everybody take a deep breath. Howard Dean and the rest of the party leadership are not morons. The plan is obvious. Once enough SD's announce for Obama, the MI and FL issue becomes moot. Hillary can scream and shriek all she wants, but the party leaders are just not going to allow a food fight at the convention. They just have to wait until all the primaries are over.

The Hussein families must be laughing at america!!!!

I can totally see Bill getting all red in the face and waving his finger at Hillary while making that exact same argument about "not having sex with that woman".

GO HUSSEIN.... GO HUSSEIN GO.... WE WILL WE WILL WILL WIN THIS:).....HAHAHAHAHA

WTF?

Welcome to the Troll Hall of Fame.

user-pic

HillaryCLinton08 just jumped the shark. I used to think the posts were kind of sweet, actually.

The breathless citing of SurveyUSA poll results, until they started to look bad for HRC. All the exclamation points!!!!!! The ellipses....The joy....The enthusiasm!!!!!

But this?

Just sad.

UNLESS IT'S ANOTHER ALL-CAPS TROLL PARODY!!!!!

Sounds like Bill jizzed on you too.

The Hussein families must be laughing at america!!!!

They only laugh at the caucus and non-states...

JohnMcC SF and Mageduley made the point.

The Rules Committee is the body that accepts challenges offered by the candidates and cites rulings only. An area cited in the challenge is the credentials of the uncommitted delegates in Michigan and the process to follow in granting credentials. As long as she can question candidate selection of the uncommitted, the Credentials Committee is where Clinton will take her challenge next. Whether she ends up with 1/2 or 1/4 of delegates is inconsequential to her.

I think she'll use the process to take it to the convention.

She might like to take it to the convention, but if she tries her support will evaporate. No one is interested in starting a brawl at the convention over a losing cause.

The hammer will come down shortly after the last convention on June 3. They can't do it sooner because they have to respect the process. Once all the party leaders line up to anoint Obama the winner, SD's will follow en masse and Hillary will have no choice but to get with the program.

That might make sense if Hillary was sane.

It doesn't matter if she's sane. Her SDs are.

Bingo. There will be no minority report from the Credentials committee. The issue will not even be brought up. The real lesson of 1972 is not that they nominated a candidate who couldn't beat Nixon (who did they have who could have done any better?) but that you don't want chaos at your convention.

By the end of June the party leaders and SD's will have lined up behind Obama. They're just waiting until the last primary is over.


"IF" by chance he does win,..... just think you are going to be putting a HUSSEIN in the white house..... HAAAAAAHHHHAAAAHAHAH

Wow. This is....offensive.

I always pictured HC '08 living in this field surrounded by rainbows and bunnies and chirping Disney-esque bluebirds, and sometimes when she feels sad she will close her eyes and whisper, "I think I can, I think I can," or just whistle a happy tune and know in her heart it all will come out okay. And when gotalife or fogu posts something disgusting, I think, "They're not all like that. There's HC '08!" I'm very crushed to find she's become as hateful as the rest of them.

user-pic

I agree. Total Disney cartoon character. Really sweet.

And then, the pressure of all that spinning apparently just got to her/him.

Probably just late with his/her/its medication.

HA!

HillaryClinton08 IS Phantom of the Opera Redux.

Obama gets 3 SDs today. 45 away!

user-pic
Also Caucusing is not right for the fact that most people work when they are being held or some people don't have time to come stand in a room for several hours..... we don't have caucusing during the general election.... maybe we shouldn't all those to count during this process.

two things: 1. That's a crock of shit. In one precinct in Dallas Co. 4000 people showed up to caucus.

2. you want to disregard the votes of the people who did take all the time and trouble to caucus - how is that right?


She doesn't want to disregard ALL the votes - just the ones who voted for Obama. Mighty narrow-minded of you not to see the fairness in that, Tena.

user-pic

Aw jeez, I guess I'm busted.

;P


Now I do have to leave. I got dressed faster than I thought I would and came back and now I do have to leave.

CYA.

Republican trolls (gotalife, HillaryClinton08, Stupor Mario) there is no place for you hear.

You're insane and racist comments as supposed Hillary supporters expose you for who you are.

Hillary would be ashamed to have you as supporters. Good thing you are not. Now kindly check in to see what your talking points are at John McCain's website and get off our progressive community blog. No amount of nasty posts will break us this fall.

There will unity. Our unity around our platform for ending the war, fiscal responsibility, and supporting the troops will win us this election!

You are going to lose!!!! Republicans will lose a whole generation, if not two, becuase of the shit you pulled the last eight years. Be prepared to reap what you have sown.

hear=here. phonetics. meh!

O yeah,

In addition to the path to the Credentials Committee is NCSteve's point of all she needs is a minority report from the CC to have a floor fight.

She's taking this to the convention.

Breaking from CNN

A judge has ruled that the Democratic National Committee has the right to determine whether to seat Florida delegates.

HillaryClinton08, congratulations on your swan dive into the deep end of the racist/xenophobe hatemonger pool!

I don't hear anyone talking numbers, which, if I'm not mistaken, is the crucial factor in this dispute,. Here's what I come up with on my fingers (consider the source!) based on dividing the FL and MI delegations in half. My calculations don't distinguish pledged from unpledged delegates (probably a mistake; see last paragraph). For FL. I combine Obama and Edwards (O+E); for MI, I count uncommitted (U) as Obama.

1/2 FL delegation = 105 delegates

FL pop. vote:
C = 50%
O = 33%
E = 14%

FL delegate totals by % of pop. vote:
C = 53 delegates
O + E = 49 delegates
Net Result: C +4 delegates

1/2 MI delegation = 78 delegates

MI pop. vote:
C = 55%
U (O + E) = 40%

MI delegate totals by % of pop. vote:
C = 42
U (O + E) = 31
Net Result: C +12

According to this settlement, Clinton's net gain in both states would be a measly 16 delegates! Can that be right?
Even if you count only Obama's actual 33% pop. vote in FL and ignor Edward altogether, Clinton nets only 18 delegates, for a two-state total net of 30 delegates. All this fuss over a max. net of 30 delegates? Something must be seriously wrong with the way I'm figuring this.

Of course, we also have to add in Puerto Rico's 55 delegates. If in PR Obama polls only 25% (worse case), the delegate breakdown will be something like C = 41, O = 14, for a Clinton net of 27. Combine this net with the delegate net totals for FL and MI above, and we arrived at a Clinton max. net for the weekend (assuming a Rule Committee settlement along the lines suggested) of either +43 or +57, still leaving Obama with a comfortable 140 delegate lead going into MT and SD. Presumably the super-delegate deluge after June 3 would put Obama's lead above 300 delegates.

Can someone with a better grasp of the numbers and nuances correct my admittedly crude take on all this? Probably there's some place on the web I can go to, but I don't know where. As it stands, I don't see what all the fuss is about -- other than the fact that Clinton wants full delegations, wants Obama's MI total to equal 0, and wants to limit Obama's take in FL to 33%. But none of that's going to happen.

Also, does anyone know how FL's and MI's super-delegates figure into all this? FL has 25 unpledged delegates and MI has 28. I take it that the unpledged are super-delegates? Who are these people and what are their leanings? The answers to these questions probably totally changes my calculations.

Excuse me for thinking out loud. Hope I'm not making a fool of myself.

There's nothing wrong with your math. Even if Hillary Clinton got exactly the apportionment of the MI and FL delegates she wants, SHE WOULD STILL LOSE. This is not about how to fairly seat those delegations. It's about creating an issue to distract attention from the obvious fact that she's lost.

If the Superdelegates from these states get seated as well you'd have a handful more going HRC's way in each state - she is winning among superdelegates in both Michigan and Florida. But the point is fundamentally correct.

HRC is two goals down with seconds left to play and throwing a Hail Mary pass in hopes of winning.

Actually, I think the argument is not about delegates but about legitimizing those primaries so that she can claim to be ahead in the "popular vote" so she can claim to the uncommitted superdelegates that there was a split decision (he in delegates, she in "popular vote"). Until those delegations are seated, the primaries (and thus the votes cast) are not considered relevant to the mythical counts that don't mean anything anyway.

user-pic

As has been pointed out in the past, some of her biggest supporters & superdelgates have said they will support whichever candidate is the clear leader after the primaries are done.

Chuck Schumer: “I don’t think either candidate wants - or can even get away with - forcing their will down the throat of the other. At the end of the day, on June 7, for the sake of party unity, Howard Dean and the two candidates will have to get together if neither candidate has 2,025 and come up with a strategy. Each candidate will have to have buy into that strategy.”

Charles Rangel: “It’s the people [who are] going to govern who selects our next candidate and not superdelegates. The people’s will is what’s going to prevail at the convention and not people who decide what the people’s will is.”

The big guns in her camp aren't going to sacrifice themselves on the altar of Clintonism. As it is there's talk in NY about whether she's already damaged herself irreparably. There is NO way other elected pols are going to destroy their own careers for her. And that's just her NY delegation - how many politicians in other states are going to die for the Clintons?

Nope - it will be over next week. Even if everybody has to unite to push the Clintons off the cliff.

This part:

Charles Rangel: “It’s the people [who are] going to govern who selects our next candidate and not superdelegates. The people’s will is what’s going to prevail at the convention and not people who decide what the people’s will is.”

Sounds like a popular vote/convention argument to me.

user-pic

You know, I didn't see it that way but I suppose that's fair. I saw it as meaning once the primaries are done the superdelgates aren't going to reverse the majority of elected delegates.

Regardless, I seriously doubt there will be very many elected pols staying with her at the expense of their own careers. Imagine if they fight this all the way to the convention for her and Obama wins it anyway - they will have damaged themselves greatly. I just don't see what they gain by dragging this out for her/them.

yeah, well,

that's because you're sane and Hillary's not.

Her whole ambition is to get her name on the ballot.

As long as she gets her ruling from the CC, Hillary will pay somebody with a bike in cigarettes so she can pump the handlebars to the convention.

Both candidates signed the "Four State Pledge" agreeing, not only not to campaign in Michigan and Florida, but also not to "participate" in those primaries.

One candidate violated the Four State Pledge in both states. She participated in the Michigan election by "choosing" to leave her name on the ballot and later claiming victory. In Florida, she campaigned in the days leading up to their primary via both national and local news media. On the other hand, the other candidate honored the Four State Pledge.

The issue is simple. Do we punish honesty and reward dishonesty? If we distribute Michigan and/or Florida delegates based on the so-called "election results", rather than a 50-50 split, then the answer to that question is yes.

Sorry if I'm behind on this and it's already been mentioned, but Ben Smith references page 29:

It basically recommends that for Michigan, the Uncommitted votes belong collectively to Obama, Edwards, Biden and Richardson; and that those candidates can decide for themselves how to allocate those delegates.

To those here that would know, is that your take?

Hillary says "So"?

user-pic

Ahem.

Told you so. DNC long-standing rules impose a sanction of loss of half the delegates for any state breaking the rules.

Where are the trolls?

user-pic

Bye, bye BILLARY Clinton!

Somebody needs to make a video of

1. Cut to: A display of the Four State Pledge where Clinton agreed not to "campaign or participate".

2. Cut to: Hillary saying that not removing her name from the Michigan ballot was just a "technicality".

3. Cut to: Hillary saying that the Michigan primary "wouldn't count for anything".

4. Cut to: Hillary claiming to have "won" in Michigan.

5. Cut to: PSYCH!

6. Cut to: Again...a display of the Four State Pledge where Clinton agreed not to "campaign or participate".

7. Cut to: Applicable language from the definition of the word "campaign" as defined in the Four State Pledge.

7. Cut to: Clinton on national news media and local news media, in the days leading up to the Florida primary, talking excitedly about this primary (i.e. "campaigning" as defined in the Four State Pledge).

8. Cut to: Clinton, on the day of the Florida primary, going to Florida and making a "victory" speech (i.e. "participating" in the Florida primary).

9. Cut to: PSYCH AGAIN!

I want to see that video. Hillary Clinton blatantly cheated in both states. Some people don't seem to know that. And for those that know she cheated, but don't care...Obama doesn't need their votes.

Again, distributing the MI/FL delegates, other than a 50/50 split, is to reward dishonesty and punish honesty.

user-pic

This one doesn't fit all your criteria, but it is pretty close. From the Jed Report:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OIXBtHfr0C8

I'm not a politico, so I will wait for smarter responses. But it doesn't appear that the Clintons have been using logic or fair arguments lately. Even if the SDs overwhelmingly go for Obama, seems like she might still appeal and take it to the convention out of ... whatever is fueling her now. I never thought she'd behave so badly in the last few weeks. I thought she would behave with class and dignity. So why are you all convinced that the SDs will cause her to back down from taking it to the convention? Most everyone has concluded she can't win by delegate totals already. So what stops her from pushing this pop vote meme forever. It's not like she is appealing to facts right now: all the polls show.... "And based on every analysis, of every bit of research and every poll that has been taken and every state that a Democrat has to win, I am the stronger candidate against John McCain in the fall."

Also, "At the end of this process, more people will have voted for Hillary Clinton than for any other potential nominee in the history of the Democratic Party, or of the country. She will emerge as the candidate with the best chance of taking back the White House in November. This memorandum offers automatic delegates key metrics that Hillary Clinton is winning in this primary race: the popular vote, a broad coalition of supporters, and millions of new Democratic voters who registered to vote for her. It also sets forth why, having amassed more ballots than any other Democratic primary candidate in history, she is best poised to beat John McCain and win the White House in November. I. Hillary Clinton Will Lead in the Popular Vote for the Democratic Nomination At the conclusion of the primary season on June 3rd, Hillary Clinton will have the most popular votes. " etc. etc. etc.

For the record, I agree with fjfelds. If the RBC gave the Clinton campaign everything she asks for, she would be emboldened and fight on with her "popular vote" nonsense.

Otherwise, she'll appeal to the Credentials Committee and then, when she doesn't get what she wants, take it to the convention floor.

I hope I'm wrong and the optimists are right. But I think the evidence doesn't support the speculation that Clinton will hang it up after June 3.

The DNC's lawyers sent a memo late yesterday to members of the committee telling them that the two states must lose half of their convention delegates

This is complete nonsense. Utter BS. There are no laws that say how the Democratic Party must seat delegates. They can do absolutely anything that they want. There are no laws governing how candidates in either party must select their candidates. This is just a group of Obama supporters lying again. That sort of thing comes pretty easy to lawyers in any case. Exactly what (whose) lawyers are these - what are their names - and exactly what law/laws are the citing? More lies and propaganda from the candidate who lost the popular vote.

user-pic

The party as a whole can do whatever they want. But the Rules and Bylaws Committee has to operate within the Rules set by the party as a whole. The memo was about the Rules; nobody claimed it was about election law.

They can follow any GD rules they like because they're the ones who make up the rules. This nonsense about them being helpless to do the right thing is BS. We're not talking about a democracy - the DNC operates as an oligarchy that answers only to themselves. I certainly didn't have any say in appointing them. All I can do is raise hell and speak out when they decide to turn the nomination into a coronation and disenfranchise millions of voters.

Leave a comment

Advertise Liberally
Share
Close Social Web Email

"To" Email Address

Your Name

Your Email Address