Clinton Only About 15 Super-Dels Ahead
Monday's super-delegate activity shows that the pace of endorsements isn't slowing down ahead of the primaries in Indiana and North Carolina. And what's more, the overall direction isn't good for Hillary Clinton:
• Barack Obama was endorsed by DNC member Kalyn Free of Oklahoma.
• Obama also picked up the support of Maryland state party chair Michael Cryor and vice chair Lauren Glover.
• Obama's three add-on delegates from Illinois -- Chicago Mayor Richard Daley, state House Majority Leader Barbara Flynn, and Cook County Board President Todd Stroger -- were officially named to their posts today. The three were announced last week in order to preempt Clinton's four New York add-ons.
• Hillary Clinton was endorsed by Democrats Abroad super Theresa Morelli, who gets half a vote.
The day's tally, not counting the Illinois add-ons: Obama +3, Clinton +0.5.
According to NBC News, Hillary led 273-258 before Morelli's endorsement. In short, Clinton leads by only about 15 votes in a category where she'll need an overwhelming victory if she's to overcome Obama's practically-certain lead among pledged delegates.
I'm glad you admit Clinton is ahead.
May 6, 2008 12:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
In superdelegates only. And at one point she was ahead there by 100.
Road to Nowhere.
May 6, 2008 12:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
If "Present" persists in leaving his name in quotation marks, thereby preventing anyone from responding to his comments, his account should be deleted.
May 6, 2008 10:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Shame it's the only measure by which she leads in this contest. And not for much longer.
May 6, 2008 12:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!!! FOR IDIOTIC!!!
May 6, 2008 12:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's obvious which way the superdelegates are going--they are steadily coming out for Obama. I expect after North Carolin and Indiana there will be a large turnout of superdelegates for Obama.
May 6, 2008 12:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Such as most of the NC House delegation.
May 6, 2008 12:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Totally agree. After tomorrow, people pretty much know how things will shake out (assuming no meltdown of O's support). I can't see SDs sitting by and just watching the candidates jump through hoops for another 4 weeks since no one expects that the remaining contests will change much.
May 6, 2008 1:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Let's pretend that Clinton still has a chance for a few weeks more.
Not.
Let's move on to the main event instead.
Obama and McCain in the steel cage. Two men go in, only one comes out.
McCain is so gonna lose.
May 6, 2008 12:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Two men enter. One man leaves!"
http://youtube.com/watch?v=DWyOt1XMCoo
May 6, 2008 2:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Given the rate Obama may equal Clinton in a week, at that point no options remain; the hill becomes steeper.
May 6, 2008 12:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes. What I wonder is what the Superdelegates results for Guam are and if they are included in the tally posted above.
Anyone knows?
May 6, 2008 5:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Right on. Hillery is way ahead in supers. And she's going to win big tomorrow. She'll win by at least 10% in IN. And she's got NC all wrapped up; WVWV has seen to that. This thing is done. Obama should just quite now.
There's no way he can catch up to her lead amongst supers. No way. He's toast with a side of OJ.
May 6, 2008 12:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
ROTFLMBAO
May 6, 2008 1:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
This put a huge smile on my face. 15. Wow. That's absolutely nothing. And considering that Obama doesn't even need to win the most Super Delegates to clinch the nomination... even sweeter.
May 6, 2008 12:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Chuck Todd of MSNBC predicts this number to be 38 super dels, given a split Tuesday, and expected performance in the last few contests.
May 6, 2008 1:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Even counting the FL and MI delegates that don't count, Obama is ahead by 9. So lets pretend the race starts today at +9 Obama - can Hillary close the deal? I think not.
(Source: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/)
May 6, 2008 1:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ah, now, let's not let facts cloud the issue. You are correct, but this will not stop Dr. Hillary Strangelove Clinton from going to court before it's over.
May 6, 2008 1:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Darn you FACTS!
May 6, 2008 1:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Soon only the nukkleer option of subverting the rules commitee will be left to our intrepid Queen of the Clintoids.
May 6, 2008 1:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
The "nuclear option", while horrifically plausible, involves too many people vying for Hillary, when the overwhelming evidence shows the power brokers siding for Obama, if not for party unity.
Where are these hundreds of mystery people who would go so far to split the party for the sake of a candidate with too many minuses?
It's Obama, baby. That's not saying Hillary's end will be very pretty.
May 6, 2008 1:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
That should be "The News Justifies the Memes"
May 6, 2008 1:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Guys- This race over on Wednesday.
The MSM is acting like this will go to June or the convention but the reality is Tues is HRC's last best chance to 'change the game'.
After IN/NC, there is no more drama election wise unless he pulls an upset. She will win KY, he will win OR and those contests will even each other out. She will win WV, he will counter with SD/WY. She will win PR but there won't be enough delegates to make a dent in his lead. Even if she wins OR or SD/WY (which she won't), it won't be a large enough win to shake the faith.
As long as she doesn't win NC - this is done after Tuesday, by Wed am the reality will start to sink in.
She won't win NC - Zogby just released the last of the tracking polls.
Obama pulls ahead in NC 51-37. This is a 6 pt swing from yesterday, meaning Obama had a really good polling day today. IN he is still up 45-43. According to Zogby this includes a boffo 47-41% Monday.
It looks like late breakers are breaking for Obama. Even if you don't believe the actual number (it is Zogby...) the trend should be relevant and it isn't going Clinton's way. I don't think people are buying the gas-tax pander.
May 6, 2008 1:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Meh - hit send too soon.
The supers know this and the slow trickle so far will become a steady stream. Excepting WV, none of the remaining states are major swing states. There is little benefit to extended campaigning and $$ spent relative to the damage the campaign is having to the party.
May 6, 2008 1:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
It certainly reflects he supers coming out for Obama day after day after day. I think people are seeing through more than a gas tax bribe. These fancy interwebs did them both in, and good riddance.
A win in IN would be sweet music. Going to be a long night. Who will tell King Bubbuh his tab done come due?
May 6, 2008 1:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
wow. Just 15. That's great. So glad to know that Obama is on the way to the nomination. I donated this morning, just like I have previously on the day preceeding the primary day of voting.
Still, I'm just a little sad for Hillary Clinton. If she had won, she would have made a good president.
May 6, 2008 1:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah...TO POOP ON! (Heh.)
She'd have been a great president, yes - if she weren't so obsessed with proving that she belongs in the boys' macho club. Her conceptions of strength and power are truly odd.
May 6, 2008 2:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah. Odd.
Generational, though.
May 6, 2008 2:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Evainne:
Generational, though.
Ahem. I'll thank you to not make assumptions about My Generation. A good number of us learned that power doesn't proceed from the barrel of a gun or the bottom of a shot glass.
The thing that really pisses me off about HRC is that she had equal opportunity to learn those lessons, and up until recently, she looked like she had done so.
That means all the crap we've seen from her campaign over the past six months is most likely due to a conscious decision on her part to pander to the worst tendencies in the Democratic party instead of the best.
I'll vote for her if I have to, but I won't forgive her or her supporters, and I won't forget the damage she's done.
May 6, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Some excellent news from Zogby with their brand new poll!
We can end things here. You can help by making calls into Indiana and North Carolina, getting out the vote tomorrow!
Can we finish this race, and heal the Democratic Party?
Yes we can!
May 6, 2008 2:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
On another lovely Obama note -
He just hit 1.5 MILLION donors to his campaign.
YES WE CAN!
If(when) Obama is elected, he answers to me now! (and 1,499,999 other people)
May 6, 2008 2:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
15 more and then what? Will it be over then? Can we focus on McInsane then?
[oh please!]
May 6, 2008 2:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Fat chance. The Clintons don't relinquish the throne without more bloodshed than this, I'm afraid.
May 6, 2008 2:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Eric
The day's tally, not counting the Illinois add-ons: Obama +3, Clinton +0.5..
Nice parsing. I would have phrased it as
"Counting the 3 Illinois add-ons : Obama +6, Clinton +0.5"
But then, I am fair....
May 6, 2008 3:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
amk,
Read the post again: it seems that those three Illionis add-ons -official today- were announced last week...
May 6, 2008 5:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
But were they added to the NBC News count that Eric is using last week? DemConWatch doesn't add them until they are official (and Hill picked up 4 NY add-ons last week).
On the other hand, I think it's fair to exclude the add-ons if you want to talk about something like how many have declared since PA (which Obama wins something like 15-4), since the add-ons have declared their allegiances before they are officially "added".
May 6, 2008 6:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm off to the polls in 10 minutes (nice 14-hour day of being an Obama poll observer in NC awaits). I'll be checking in on my blackberry all day for encouraging news!
The NC team is extremely confident, FWIW. So am I.
May 6, 2008 5:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Superdelegates take notice.
Will the superdelegates take notice of the impact that Operation Chaos has had on primary election results.
http://www.springfieldmedia.com/services.html
May 6, 2008 6:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Please stop spamming. Stuff like this makes me less inclined to visit your site.
May 6, 2008 7:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
It will be nice when Obama passes her, but remember it's not the gap in supers that matters. They could split the supers evenly the rest of the way and Obama would win easily.
May 6, 2008 6:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
21,000 show up to see Obama last night:
http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080506/NEWS0502/805060394
he's giving the speech on c-span now.
go watch.
May 6, 2008 6:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
a few modest facts:
some of you fools blather on about Tuskegee. Well, let me set you straight. 400 guys. sixty some years ago. who were not likely to receive effective treatment anyway. so what the fuck is the big deal? Compared to the Holocaust, the famine/genocide in Ukraine, mass murder in Cambodia, etc etc etc, African-Americans have not suffered much at all, certainly not a tenth as you might think based on their whining. And to twist the facts of Tuskegee into some hysterical "basis"for asserting the Maerican government invents diseases to kill black people is just repugnant. Repugnant.
May 6, 2008 7:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
I hesitate to even respond to this because its so ridiculous, but here goes anyway: don't you feel a bit sheepish trying to explain away the actions of the United States by comparing them to those of Nazi Germany or the Khmer Rouge? Hey, our government is better than Atilla the Hun, too, but so what? Should we be measuring ourselves against the least common denominators of world history, or are we going to stand up as the greatest civilization in the history of the world? If the latter, then we must take issue with things like Tuskegee. That was horribly wrong, and your efforts to minimize it or justify it by comparing it to the atrocities committed by the great death merchants of history does not make right or OK.
May 6, 2008 8:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nobody here blathering on about Tuskegee than you, troll.
May 6, 2008 8:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
What the fuck are you talking about? Go back to your cave, you Luddite.
May 6, 2008 9:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
From the Jed Report - Keith Olbermann and Chuck Todd Do The Delegate Math:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aiO-0FCJnow&eurl=http://www.jedreport.com/
May 6, 2008 7:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
I love Keith's snark: "she only needs an easily obtainable 85% of all remaining delegates [to overtake Obama in delegate count]". He's too funny!
May 6, 2008 8:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Drip, drip, drip...
May 6, 2008 9:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
I have to conclude that the lion's share of remaining superdelegates are Obama backers who have been cowed by the big money Clinton people into remaining silent. If they were Clinton supporters there would be no reason for them not to announce. She needs all the help she can get.
May 6, 2008 9:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
As Chuck Todd said last night, there are a LOT of undeclared California SDs and that should worry Hillary since she won CA easily. If they were for Hillary they would have announced already.
May 6, 2008 10:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
holy shit, Obama has an insurmountable lead in delegates? this is NEWS!
welcome to 2 months ago. everyone with a brain stem saw it, but you "news outlets" kept trying to pretend it was an actual race still. it's not. it was over after February. i'd have a lot more respect for TPM if you had just accepted that fact.
May 6, 2008 10:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
PROJECT NUCLEAR OPTION IS ABOUT TO COMMENCE 3...2...1...
May 6, 2008 12:15 PM | Reply | Permalink