« A Developing Compromise For Florida And Michigan? | Home | Ickes: Not All Pro-Hillary Rules Committee Members Guaranteed To Vote Her Way »

In Contrast With Core Hillary Message, Carville Says He Thinks Obama "Will" Win General Election

In a quick phone interview with me just now, prominent Hillary supporter James Carville diverged from the Hillary campaign message on several key "electability" questions, saying that he thinks Obama "will" win the general election.

Carville, surprisingly, also seemed to downplay Obama's problems with non-college whites -- a cornerstone of Hillary's electability claim -- saying that if Obama gets the same level of non-college whites that John Kerry did in 2004, he "will" win the general.

Asked if he thought Obama would beat McCain, Carville said: "I think he will. I think Democrats will win in November...There's a crushing desire for change in this country. No one has seen a party or brand held in such low esteem" than the Republicans.

Carville's repeated suggestions that Obama "will" beat McCain contrast with the core Hillary message -- repeated frequently by Hillary advisers -- that Obama merely "can" win a general election, while Hillary "will" win it. Carville's comments also suggest that with the fall contest looming, it's becoming tougher for prominent Hillary backers to sustain any argument that doesn't show full confidence in Obama's chances against McCain.

Carville stressed that he thought Hillary was a better bet against McCain, but reiterated his confidence in Obama. "Hillary would be a stronger candidate, but I think he'll win this thing," Carville said.

Asked about claims that Obama has a problem with non-college whites that could hamper his electability, Carville said that thanks to changes in the electorate, to win Obama merely has to match the performance of Kerry, who underperformed with that group.

"I would argue that if he gets what Kerry got he will still win the election, because the dynamics have changed," Carville said, pointing to likely larger turnout among young voters, African Americans and other demographic changes. Carville joked, however, that he'd be loath to see Obama fall below Kerry's performance.



283 Comments

| Leave a comment

DUH!!!!!

HEH!!!

Guess who's the latest ... JUDAS!

you took the epithet right out of my mouth

Related to the Necks of New Roads, LA

We're probably cousins...very inbred

You know what would be cool? Is if you let us know BEFORE hand that you are going to talk to one of these folks and we could send in actual questions.

Just something to think about.

Yeah, that's a great idea.

I have to say, I'd probably just want to ask Carville if it was warm and cozy up there with his head up Hillary's ass.

But still. Et tu, Carville? I'd be very interested to hear the response to this over at Camp Clinton.

user-pic

I'd want to know if, since Carville considers Richardson a Judas, what does that make Carville? The world ugliest fucking disciple?

user-pic

That about sums it up...

user-pic

lol.

Touché!

We might ask about the tee-shirt sale and how it fits in with his candidate's general strategy. But the hour is late, and in the spirit of a tee-shirt sale, I want to turn to a really important topic, one that may have political ramifications that people have yet to consider. Who is the twelfth Cylon? I have found pictures that are startling in what they reveal.

"The Twelfth Cylon Revealed"
http://msa4.wordpress.com/

Too latte you classless hillbilly.

You ain't gonna have a job in an Obama admin.

He can shuck crawfish for the inaugural celebration.

In the rain.

In high wind.

With his bare hands, and no fair using teeth, either. Teeths aint tools, James.

Technically, he's not a hillbilly. He's a cajun.

And he's a street-fighter who could be useful in the campaign. I understand the ill-will because he's been a Clinton supporter. I've been mad as hell at him at times recently, too. But, at some point in the CAMPAIGN, we might need a street-fighter.

He has no place in any administration. He's all about campaigning. I think what has all of us so excited about Obama is that he's given us every indication that he WILL NOT be running for re-election from Day One, but will be GOVERNING instead.

Just my dissenting view.

user-pic

We don't have to pretend Carville is a Democrat any more. He's married to Mary Matalin the Republican shill who worked to elect GW Bush. He represented Zell Miller along with fellow clown Paul Begala, Colmes to his Hannity.

Carville is just trying to engratiate himself with a rare speaking of truth. He knows he's finished in Dem politics with the end of the Clintons and other DINOs.

Good bye DINOs and RINOs. Don't let the door hit you in the ass.

I know who he's married to. I also know that, at some point, this campaign will need a street-fighter and James Carville fits that bill.

Dude's got crazy campaign skills.

Just sayin'.

user-pic

Crazy skills at electing kooks and DINOs like Zell Miller.

Like we really need somebody married to a Cheney aide involved with Obama campaign strategy.

The only reason Carville's clients go for it is because they're all in the same corporate pocket.

Look at Carville's work in Bolivia to elect a real corporate puppet, Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada, who helped privatize their resources, utilities, and national industries, along with Generalissimo Hugo Banzer, also known for running a police state.

They basically raped the country for foreign transnationals. Commodity prices immediatly soared so Bolivians couldn't even afford thier own resources. Even thier water utility was sold to Bechtel who created a crisis where poor peasants couldn't even afford their own f'ing drinking water.

Heckuva job Baldie! Great people you represent, you f'ing whore.

That Carville had anything to do with it is sleazy. And you know Bill Clinton and billionaire Ron Burkle were somewhere in the loop becasue thier company Yucaipa specializes in securing resource rights in Latin America and bringing the virtues of privatization to the 3rd world.

Screw these corporate transnational whores. No more DINOs, no more RINOs. No more sellouts. No more whores.

This guy has the Clinton brand written all over him. Obama should stay far, far away. His campaign does not need his kind.

But then again, me thinks this could also be a reverse psychology thing to piss off Hillary's supporters so much that they'll push things over the edge and inspire her even more to stay in through the summer.

Terry, Wolfie and Carville Inc. seems to be weasels enough to do something like that.

I don't think Carville's nearly as clueless as Wolfson, Ickes, Davis and McCauliffe. And he doesn't appear to have sold his soul like the other four. In fact, a War Room with Axelrod and Carville wouldn't hurt my feelings.

Just keep Bill and/or Hillary far, far away.

Do you watch the Sunday morning talk shows? He's not *quite* as repulsive an apologist for the campaign as Ickes or Wolfson (shudder), but he has been spouting all sorts of convoluted pro-Hillary nonsense for months now.

Besides... I don't think Axelrod needs him. Thank God.

user-pic

He wants to keep his job on TV.

user-pic

If Carville hasn't sold his soul, it's only because he didn't have one to begin with.

I respectfully disagree. I have heard him be quite eloquent --- granted, in his own fashion --- about progressive ideals that I think most of us share. As I replied to thejoshuablog, I've been mad as hell at him at times recently, too. But you have to admit he's one HELL of a campaigner.

He does a good job with his DSCC/DCCC "Rant" email that he sends out every once in a while.

Or he couldn't find a taker?

Carville is more candid, just this second, at any rate, because the end is nigh and he has not been on the actual campaign payroll this cycle. He's just a supporter. A strong supporter strongly identified with the Clinton clique, but he's not in a position where his words get interpreted as the official position of the campaign.

Hmmmm...sounds like he's looking for work. I know! How about a compelling tell-all book on Hillary's crash and burn primary campaign?

In other good news, Harry Reid has also stated there will be no convention fight:

In an interview with KGO after his radio appearance, Reid said, "The time has come to make a decision. I think we need a general election that’s 5 months. I don’t think August is enough time."

He suggested the Democratic primary "will be ended a couple days after June 3rd."

This is down now to the superdelegates. And probably, simple math indicates that, next Tuesday, after we get the results from Puerto Rico on Sunday and South Dakota and Montana on Tuesday, Obama will probably have the necessary number at that time anyway," he said.

Uncommitted superdelegate and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., visiting San Francisco, told KGO Radio today that he spoke this morning with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and last night to DNC Chairman Howard Dean. "We agree there won’t be a fight at the convention," he said, later adding that "simple math indicates" Barack Obama is likely to become the Democratic nominee.

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/05/democratic-lead.html

That last paragraph should have been first. DOAH.

Even Rupert Murdoch is saying Obama will win, and that Democrats are going to make massive gains in November.

Carville wants to make sure that he does not kill his chances for future business, by staying on the HMS Clintanic after it has already hit the Ice Berg, and is listing badly. Carville makes big bucks by staying on the winning side. He is just the lead rat off the sinking ship.

Especially since his wife, Cruella, will not be bringing in a paycheck either after Snarl is out. It's now time to join the Judases.

Mary will have a job creeping us all out on Sunday mornings til the end of time, I fear. And the rest of the week, I'm sure cable will take her. Maybe we should demand her as the new replacement for Liz "Bang Bang" Trotta.

But aren't they moving to Louisiana?

the HMS Clintanic

Priceless!

user-pic

Are monkeys flying out of my butt?

I can't remember the last time I heard Carville sound so damn sane.

If all the rest of that crap is just crap he puts on, he ought to take it off permanently - it ain't attractive.

I like sane better.

That is such a personal question, what with all the avain simians run aerial amok...but, now that you mention it, yes there are monkeys flying out of your butt!

A flying elephant will be next if Scott's tacit implication of treason leads to indictments.

user-pic

No, if that happens, there is going to be dancing in the fucking streets!

No, if that happens, there is going to be dancing in the fucking streets!

That would be fun, but wouldn't it be even moreso if it were the other way around?

Very Bourbon Street.

Kind of apropos for a Carville thread.

I can't remember the last time I heard Carville sound so damn sane.

Maybe he took his meds today.

user-pic

Of course, liam - D'oh!

I am being dense. Carville and the Missus are prime opportunists.

It's just inevitability talking - finally. ;)

Inevitability -- that's what that smell is!

Carville is fogged on its fumes.

user-pic

I've said it once, I've said it a dozen times...

Obama will win the general election and McCain is going down like Bob Dole, stumbling off the stage figuratively and literally (perhaps to do viagra ads or somesuch silliness).


There's lots of work to do between now and then, but I have every confidence that Obama is swift-boat proof and won't fall due to crazy no-tax promises from the Repug side.

You know it, I know it, Bob Dole knows it, don't make me stab you with this pen...

Love your moniker. And I agree, 100%. At dinner tonight I was working hard to reassure my college-age kids that they need not make plans to move to New Zealand....that the good old US of A will be in good hands very soon. Keep the faith!

that was for twirling fartknocker

user-pic

I have heard all I want to hear about how Obama beat Hillary because she was played for a fool by Bush, and he was not. I do not, I repeat, I do not, want to see any posts about how the same thing could happen to McCain. I do not want to hear anything about the McClellan book. I do not want any speculation about the possibility that McCain will be considered as one who was alsp played for a fool, while Obama was not.

In the words of Mark McGwire, we are not here to talk about the past.

We need more posts about Hillary Hillary Hillary Hillary and how she is doing in this tighly contested nomination race.

user-pic

Um, how about - badly?

user-pic

I have no great love for Carville, but I'm glad to hear somebody pushing back against the idiotic idea that the Democrats are in big trouble if they don't "win" working class whites or "Reagan Democrats" or whatever. The fact is that Democrats haven't won a majority of them since 1964. We just need to do well enough with them, and every indicator is that Obama will do that.

The country would benefit from free college tuition for Reagan Demoncrats, assuming you can pry them out of The Hollar...

Wow. Bill is going to lose his shit. I hope James remembers to tell Bill he was "quoted accurately".

Anyway, it's not over until Lanny Davis admits it. That would neatly define the farthest tail of the denial bell curve.

If it's not over til Lanny Davis admits it, then we're going to be wrapping up the Party nomination in the year 2057.

user-pic

Hey, it takes balls... three of them I hear... to do what he just did.

;-)

Incredibly, Lanny Davis (and I just checked my Webster's and, yes, his photo is featured by the word "lackey") was on Larry King tonight talking primarily about the McClellan book and did not once make any kind of case for Hillary.

Frankly, I was STUNNED!

We're talking LANNY DAVIS on NATIONAL TELEVISION! And not ONCE did he go there.

As Tena's fond of saying, a barrel of simians exited my anus and, dammit, it felt GOOD!

Reality is sinking in. Even into the thickest of Clintonian heads.

The one who told you're Judas was none another than Judas himself.

Hey, I was going to call him a Judas. You beat me to it.

user-pic

Shit... didn't read your comment before I posted "JUDAS" down-thread.

GMTA

user-pic

Hey - I KNEW Judas. And you sir, James Carville, are no Judas.

Maybe... Juda Priest. But that's about it.

user-pic

"Seek him here, seek him on the highway
Never knowing when hell appear
All await, engines ticking over
Hear the roar as they sense the fear

Wheels! a glint of steel and a flash of light!
Screams! from a streak of fire as he strikes!

Hell bent, hell bent for blather
Hell bent, hell bent for blather
..."

So is James the ostensibly straight goatee sporintg alter-ego of Rob Halford?

Carville is flushing out his thoughts and as tena said.."sane". Carville is just trying to get on board and in a couple of weeks...he'll be ever so sweet to the Obama team like he was all along...

Obama just doesn't need the likes of Carville to win in November..

user-pic

No. Absolutely not.

But it's interesting to see who bows to inevitability first, and of course, it is he who is the biggest opportunist, viz. Rupert Murdoch and now James "Manimal" Carville.

How interesting that Carville is changing his tune during the same news cycle in which Scott McClellan is hawking his tell-all book. I see a pattern emerging . . .

Ex-Bush-administration flacks: "I know that I spouted all sorts of crazy, damaging nonsense, but I now realize that it was all a bunch of crap. Bush IS a terrible president."

Ex-Clinton-campaign flacks: "I know that I spouted all sorts of crazy, damaging nonsense, but I now realize that it was all a bunch of crap. Obama WILL win the general election."

user-pic

My favorite comment on Scotty, so far, and one that just makes me laugh uncontrollably, is Ari Fleischer's comment that he was "heartbroken."

ROFLMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I bet you are, Ari.

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!

user-pic

I mean really, who's gonna believe that Ari Fleischer has a heart?

user-pic

Good observation.

Tweety spent 1 hour on IraqGate.

Gregory is about to spend another hour on Iraqgate.

Scott w/Keith

Too many more questions and the whole house of cards is going to come down. People are in no mood. No one can honestly deflect the substance of the charges. Even the attacks on Scott from the WH are fairly mild. "Disgruntled." Anyone who works knows it goes both ways.

Now, to a Grand Jury.

user-pic

I'm beginning to believe it could happen.

If there is a single lesson from Sen Obama's campaign is that we must DEMAND it. Continuously.

Agreed. But at the same time, we must remember there are other issues at hand. People are suffering from inflated prices of everything due to oil/gasoline prices and because they've been duped mortgage lendors. Our next generation is dying in Iraq and Afghanistan. We must restore human and civil rights and, yes, rights to privacy. The Supreme Court needs a makeover.

That's just for starters.

I believe Sen. Obama will be our next president. He will have a lot on his plate. He needs to surround himself with capable people and I've no doubt he will. We are fighting battles on multiple fronts --- literally and figuratively.

I want Bush & Co. to pay, but that's not all I want. More than anything, I want America to shine again as the world's brightest beacon of hope, freedom and liberty.

Keep your powder dry. Anyone who gets charged with a crime while Bush is still in office will get pardoned. But he can't pardon someone who hasn't been charged. Investigate, but wait to bring the hammer down until after Jan 20.

Indeed. I would even expect to see a trial balloon, a test case with someone like Scott, but more gruntled. See how fast the pardon pen comes out, and then allow the pardonee to testify under this tacit immunity.

Every scrap of video, every memo is now evidence. Every conversation and public utterance is now testimony.

I think the Grand Jury could get going now. I do not believe the President can disband a sitting Grand Jury. Agreed, no indictments pre Feb 2009.

All we need is a match. The gasoline has been poured.

user-pic

Except charing an ex-president for official acts as crimes is legally questionable, though IIRC the Monica Lewinsky case might have shattered that legal bullwark (which would be irony writ large).

user-pic

Ugh.. "charging" not "charing"... though burning Bush at the stake would certainly have a cathartic value to it (as well as a closer measure of justice).

A president is not above the law. If he can be impeached for "high crimes and misdemeanors", doesn't that imply that those are also crimes that can be prosecuted separately? Otherwise, why was Nixon pardoned by Ford?

user-pic

Yes.

If he breaks the law, then he breaks the law. He has immunity from prosecution for bad decisions - not from breaking the law. You break the law, all bets are off.

And there is no Statute of Limitations on war crimes, either.

I do believe it's protection from civil liability for bad decisions. And violating Federal law is definitely outside the scope of "...preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution..." for purposes of criminal prosecution.

The question really is this: Is there the political will to begin unraveling this mess after Bush leaves office, in addition to fixing the damage done outside the political/legal sphere? I mean things like New Orleans, a rational national energy policy, withdrawal from Iraq, both in a timely manner and with proper levels of force protection, beginning work on a seriously decaying road, rail, and bridge infrastructure (just to name a few things...), and trying to restore some measure of reasonable relations with many other nations around the world.

I do think it's a good idea - somewhere, someone finally has to root out some of the entrenched rot that both the Republicans under Reagan and Bush, and the DLC-era Clinton compromises put in place even before the current disastrous Bush nightmare. There's a lot that needs doing, and a lot that needs undoing, and the good thing is, President Obama will be both popular with a large amount of the public and have working majorities in both houses of Congress. And if things go as they seem to be right now, maybe even a filibuster-resistant 60 votes in the Senate. (A grouch can hope, yes?)

Obama's going to be a busy guy. Good thing he knows how to hire well.

Thanks for pointing that out. Bush and his cronies have committed multiple misdeeds that have to be brought to light and for which they have to be held accountable and that will have to be undone, if at all possible. But, there are also pieces to this that are rooted in the Clinton Administration and the DLC, which laid the groundwork for what Bush has done and that will also come to light.


user-pic
Keep your powder dry. Anyone who gets charged with a crime while Bush is still in office will get pardoned. But he can't pardon someone who hasn't been charged.

Oh? Didn't Ford pardon Nixon prior to any criminal charges?

Er, ah, I think they were both Republicans....


user-pic

Erica Jong
Susan Estrich
Hilary Rosen

...and now Carville?

I'm hoping these are her real friends - coz she will need them. Friends that I'm hoping will bring her down off the ledge gently.

user-pic

You know, you're right.

user-pic

It was too late for 'gentle' three months ago.

I will settle for someone scrubbing the HAZMAT from the street below without throwing out the Office of the President with the spattered remains.

Is it me, or does James Carville always look like he was just released from prison for manslaughter?

LOL. And GREAT avatar!

Thanks! It was either AWESOM-O, or Lemy from Motorhead. Speaking of ugly men...

To me, he just keeps looking more and more snake-like. In fact, every time I see his face, I think he should have been cast as Voldemort in the Harry Potter movies.

Severus, you out there? Any thoughts?

Yes, he has a very slitherly look about him. I once heard somebody compare Carville to Gollum (sp?) from Lord of the Rings.

His wife's pet name for him is "Snakehead". Seriously!

user-pic

Gollum-hood is an honor more accurately assigned to RUDE-ee Guliani . . .

I think he played Satan in The Passion of the Christ as well.

user-pic

Carville's a world class asshole (with plenty of Tena's flying monkeys heading in and out). But he's also a realist. He wants a place a spot on the lifeboats because he knows the U.S.S. Clinton is going down.

user-pic

Carville is fleeing with the rats?

I kind of like James Carville. He knows his politics and he's a crazy cajun bald dude who don't take no shit. I'd like for him to be on Obama's side, which I'm sure he will be before too long.

I'm with you Mason. I've always liked him.
I don't think his heart was ever with Hillary, he just thought she had it in the bag like the rest of her friends.
I didnt appreciate how he treated Richardson, but I think he just panicked when he saw the ship going down.

I'm with you two, Mason and Veronica, but I got dissed upthread for a similar observation. He's got some political skills and I sorta like his take-n-shit cajun persona. Plus, we're both SEC football junkies.

I do think, however --- and I've posted this on TPM-EC before --- that Axelrod is just as talented, or appears to be thus far.

I dont think you can compare the two. Axelrod is "new school" (brilliant) strategist. He's tough, but classy. Carville plays rough.

Oh, I agree. Somewhere in this thread, I called him (Carville) a "streetfighter" and I think that about sums it up.

Mason, Veronica & Co- I'm not surprised you actually have words of affinity for Carville. He was a brilliant strategist- but I would'nt give any benefit of doubt on his charecter and his "heart."

He displayed lack of charecter with the Judas comment, displayed lack of charecter today and don't be surprised when you hear him deny his comments to TPM tommorow.

He's old school guy. I was absolutely sure he was a great loyalist but I'm not sure anymore.

Having said that, I don't mind if he wins back a few hearts- he's not the one in question.

I felt that way about him in '92, but since then, he's lost his edge. I suspect the combination of his marriage, becoming a TV pundit bobble-head, going on the big bucks speaking circuit, going Hollywood (remember that awful George Clooney-produced series on HBO?) and doing whatever lobbying/consulting he does have more than had their cumulative impact.

I hear ya!

Being married to the Queen of GOP?
WTF?
I could never sleep with Mary Matalin.

No way, no how.

He’s bat-shit crazy and occasionally uses his powers for evil, but I kind of like him too.

It's nothing more than Clintonites passive aggressive campaign against Obama. They're still making it known that Hillary is the better candidate BUT Obama will win, so eventually that will become accepted and then it will be "Why not just put forth the better candidate"?

Now if anybody came out and challenges them they'd be seen as being too argumentative and over the top "Hey we're saying your guy is going to win, take it easy on us and leave us something to hang our hats on..."

Why can't they just say Obama will beat McCain and I fully support Barack Obama as our parties nominee and while I initially backed Sen. Clinton, Barack Obama will make one helluva President? There always has to be a qualifier that diminishes Obama.

user-pic

JUDAS!!!!

yeah. Judas! Did he go out into the sun and say that to his shadow, I wonder?

user-pic

If Carville goes outside and sees his shadow.. that means we have six more weeks of Hillary's campaigning.... or somethin'

LOL!


Damn...I wish I knew of this contest earlier.
Oh, another opportunity wasted!

http://www.hillaryclinton.com/action/tshirtvoting/

dear Obama frieds,

another endorsement from West Virginia for Senator Obama

Rep Allan Mollohan has endorsed Senator Obama

Congressman Mollohan said, “I believe Senator Obama will bring America a new era of trust, principled leadership and positive results. He has the intelligence, capacity and values that assure me he will confront the real issues that Americans face every day - health care, pension reform, energy prices, the struggling economy, and, of course, the issue of Iraq. “

That makes it 2 to 1 for today

user-pic

Thanks!

Who was the other other one to come out for Obama?

I am with Mason, 6:19 p.m. When this whole Hillary/Obama thing turned nasty, Carville was one of the wrong-siders I was most heartbroken about. The man's a trench fighter who earned his stripes fighting the worst the Republican slime machine had to offer at its very zenith. I always kind of hoped he'd come around to the Obama side in the general, and it looks like he's making moves in that direction. If the Obama camp is smart, they'll welcome him in. We need bulldogs like him this fall. Carville's a great Democrat

Republican slime machine had to offer at its very zenith.

It's easy to forget, a decade later, just how brutal the VRWC was. Weathering that sort of attack must have been spirit-crushing, and may in part explain the Clinton's current "end justifies the means" attitude.

It's like if you learned every stratagem and trick in the book, thinking you'll be up against Darth Vader, then - BAM - you end up fighting Obi-Wan Kenobi.

Just heard the same schtick from Carville on Hannity's radio show where you might've thought he would've taken the opportunity to put in a few digs at Obama, but he didn't. He's obviously playing the role of "good cop" to the rest of Clinton's surrogate "obsessively single-minded bad cops" in the hopes of soothing over any ill will brought about in the past months. And rather typically from the Clinton crew, it seems a little too late. Nonetheless, it's a very necessary gesture and I hope he is deployed over the next few days to echo this sentiment.

As was mentioned above, out of all of Clinton's inner circle, Carville is the most valuable and I also wouldn't mind him coming on board for the general election. Bill and Hillary? Not so much. I'm thinking their antics over the past week or so has been to get out of campaigning for Obama.

Oregon DNC Gail Rasmussen was the first one of the day...

user-pic

Ah, rats deserting a sinking ship. How many more in the days ahead? The clintons arguments have no credibility. If these people want any semblance of a future career, like carville, they have to bail. At the end of the day, it will be just the clintons kicking and screaming at the convention in August. I hope the obama campaign gets some 8x10 glossies for a fund raiser. He would make a fortune.

Thanks..psmdsfc..down to 43 more to declare!

user-pic

Eh - I don't like Carville and I haven't like Carville since long before Hillary ran for president.

He has a mean mouth - not just funny, mean. Unnecessarily. And no scruples whatsoever.

And the wife - don't even get me started.

I think he's trash.

You are welcome,

I believe he needs 3 SDs, I think he will 40 delegated within the next 3. If he loses 55 to 45, he will get 24 pledge in PR...

But of course, I would like to see more SDs coming up before June 3rd.
Most Sds coming after June 3rd is great, but to me it shows lack of leadership.

I think the Sds should have made their judgement known after Senator Obama had won 11 states in a row...

Apparently Rep Clyburn indicated he will endorse on June 3rd.

The Pelosi club will probably endorse on June 4th.

Iraqgate has sucked all of Sen Clinton's remaining three molecules of oxygen. You describe the final one-two punch.

Unless, of course, she takes it Judge Wapner...starring gotalife as Doug Louellan and his Hair...

user-pic

I think Matthew Weaver has the 'curiously entertaining hair' end of things covered from the GOP "Clinton Supporter" troll brigade.

Dude, don't tell me you just went to David Foster Wallace Land!?!?!

That dude RAWKS!!!

That guy just disappeared after Indiana, didn't he?

C'mon, what do we know from leadership? Have we had an actual political leader in the past 40 years? Obama has to let the primaries end, give her a few days to bow out, and then let the DNC folks have at her. He can't declare and is right to tell his SD's to wait until they all can credit the good old We the People with their decision.

This stage of the process isn't about being tough or gutsy. It's about being gracious to allies and allying himself with potential friends. He's got to attack Republicans and forgive and embrace all the folks we Obama supporters have learned to blame and hate. Otherwise, he loses.

Hiya Rocky!

user-pic
But of course, I would like to see more SDs coming up before June 3rd. Most Sds coming after June 3rd is great, but to me it shows lack of leadership.

Darlin - we're not Republicans. We're Democrats. It's like herding cats.

You ought to know that by now. We're contrary just because.

;)

It has the benefit of having visited many sides of each issue. My own cat sums it up with "meow".

MEOW!!!!

Carville is a rat and his wife is Matalin a big time GOP consultant. It is because of this union that Gore and Kerry loss...there should be no way in hell that Obama takes Caraville on the team.

Talk about sleeping Judas...sheesh

I agree with you Tena:)

It is just when i read some comments from Sen Landrieu (Louisiana) it makes me wonder...

I understand they want to be elected or re-elected, but it is surprising that at this point they can not make a decision...

Anyhow, I am happy to see the end on June 4th at the latest..

user-pic

Some are weaker links than others, and Landrieu is a very weak link in my opinion.

As much as the Bush administration is responsible for what happened in New Orleans, I've talked to a lot of people from New Orleans who blame her as well.

Where is gotalife?

user-pic

I saw a gotalife posting on Huffpost. Something about Hillary being the candidate in November...

Did we finally break his spirit? I hope not. I hope he returns. The thread's not the same without that ridiculous avatar and the rinse-repeat assertions.

user-pic

How many times do I have to remind y'all that you invoke the little demons every damn time you mention their names? ;)


You got your wish, Evainne. LOL!

It's always fun until someone breaks the pentagram...

user-pic

Carville was on CNN yesterday and he was still pushing the line that since Obama single handedly shut down the possible redo in Florida and Michigan that those states should be seated as is. He also said that Hillary should go on until she has exhausted every possible scenario.

By the way, Pew has new polls out - they are favorable to Obama so they won't get a headline here (just kidding - sort of)

Obama 47 - McCain 44
Clinton 48 - McCain 44
Obama 54 - Clinton 41

Obama favorable 51 - 40
McCain 46-44
Clinton 48-44

The poll of polls for favorable are
Obama 51-39
McCain 49 - 38
Clinton 48-44

I know that in two person races when you have an incumbent, their favorability rating is usually the best indicator for what their popular vote percentage is going to be. Makes sense, people aren't going to say they are happy with an elected official and then vote against them. Does anyone know how favorability historically plays when there are no incumbents?


At what point is this blog going to stop parsing the language of an unofficial advisor to a campaign that lost the primary?

Well strike me handsome!!! Maybe Carville is a mammal after all!

Yes Tena, this is the point I was making:)

and the celebration is near. HISTORY is being written!

They are still some delusional people out there.

Pelosi, Reid, Clyburn, and Brazile will held strong on the 3rd or 4th of June. Donna is indicating that nothing will be gained to go to the convention, and that it is hard to be a good loser.

Since these comments are coming from women, it makes it more difficult for the Clinton camp to make a lot of noise, and they need to be very careful...

user-pic

What a very nice point - and I missed that totally.

Thanks for pointing it out.

Its going to the convention.

The DNC is having their circus tomorrow.

Should be fun watching those clowns.

you're baaack!

user-pic

Well you invoked him, Evainne - you got him!

LOL!

you guys call up the little demons - their yours.


I did not know that gotalife had such potent powers. Really.

user-pic

No, silly - it's you! LOL!

D'uh! I get it! A little slow right now. I need food.

user-pic

Poor baby! Tell your 2-legs to get out the tuna! :)

user-pic

Saturday by the way and unbelievably, I agree with you. It's going to the convention, the clintons will lose and then they will be relegated to the dustbin of history. Awesome. No more red-faced pathological liar wagging his finger with another pathological liar nodding her head over, and over, and over again. Ahhh, I can't wait until August.

user-pic

Back to the denial.

(sigh)

And here I thought you were making progress in the Kübler-Ross sense of things, when you moved on to the anger bit.

Just on time to press the IGNORE button...

Hillary who?

Some real classy readers you have here Greg. Here you have a nice little scoop to share, and the disturbed children here wipe their shit on the walls and fling it around like a bunch of animals.

I await your own gig where you can actually interact on some sort of intellectual level with readers.

Somehow, I've never connected your posts with the term "intellectual."

user-pic

Nor have I.

But obviously we're too stupid to get it.

roflmao!

Yes, you are too stupid. Or young, naive, or just miserable and hateful, I'm not quite sure. But you obviously know nothing about coalition building, or bringing a party together to beat Republicans and take back the White House. Or do you seriously think you can do it with half the party?

Here you have a nice little scoop to share, and the disturbed children here wipe their shit on the walls and fling it around like a bunch of animals.


Yes, you are too stupid. Or young, naive, or just miserable and hateful, I'm not quite sure. But you obviously know nothing about coalition building, or bringing a party together to beat Republicans

Yes. Abundantly evident that you know how to bring the party together and you are not mean, hateful and miserable.

Once you change your avatar we're on our way building coalition. Change and comeback. I'm all for unity.

I'll not call you young or naive- that's too cute. But miserable and hateful are a slam dunk if one tracks the history of your postings.

To which "you" are you referring? It seems "you" to you means the Big You, or the, if you will, Royal You, and not to be confused with the traitor John Yoo.

One is tempted to ask, "you" who?

See, this is trouble with your sweeping generalizations. They render your suprious judgements quite meaningless.

If you do not like the cump'ny, why do you come here? The intertubes is not broadcast, nor are you taped into your Robot Chicken TV Appreciation Chair. Clearly, there is something here you want and/or need. Rather masochistic, don't you think, to then bitch up a storm? Aren't you complaining (foremost) about yourself?

Unless, "you" know, "you're" into that sort of thing...

Good point and yes, they actually do.

We'll have a lot more than half a party when this is over Mark. Most Dems understand that anonymous commentors on blogs have nothing to do with whether a candidate deserves their support or not. I mean, when was the last time an insulting letter to the editor in your local newspaper made you vote for the other candidate - simply because it pissed you off? When politicians tell you that the election is about "you", they don't mean "just you". Try to be a little less narcissistic.

By the way, love the avatar! He looks a lot like Bogey in Casablanca, dontcha think?

user-pic

See, I would have used the word "poopy." But you, being more intellectual than I, chose another word. And there lies all the difference.

What a poopy-head.

As long as Greg doesn't interact with you I think he's doing okay. I guess you're smelling all the "Shit" you referred to.

Interesting that you showed up the same time as gotalife...

So you, fogu2, gotalife = same person.

Bingo. Frauds all.

Do you hear voices in you head too like tena?

No, gotalife, I don't hear voices in my head. I'm sure neither does Tena.

But you do have to ponder the very strange coimkydink. All of you appear at the same time...?

What are the odds?

The odds are in favor of we got a life.

user-pic

Does what you just typed make sense even to you?

LOL! Always said you have a sense of humor. ;)

Cryptic.

Smug elitist....table for One...

user-pic

Ahhh, classy as always. How's the gravel campaign going by the way? I hear he's going to pull down more electoral votes than the clintons.

Mark, it must suck to have lost. The candidate you can't stand has won and is going on and your candidate has been either been rejected (if you're a Clinton supporter), or will be beat handily in November (if you're a GOP troll).

It just must suck to be the loser. Have to be grouchy all the time. Mope around in chat rooms where everyone hates you. A sad existence, Mark.

THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!

FOR HILLARY!

(Sorry...I totally stole that but I couldn't resist. Is it August yet?)

um, check back in August...

Hold up! That made me think . . . what happened to idiotic? S/he hasn't been around in what feels like months (although in this primary season, that's probably 2 weeks real-world time). But seriously - should we send out a search party?

Whew!

Carville has been irritating as hell lately, but all will be forgiven, if talks hillary down and throws himself in to the fight for the general.

user-pic

This is encouraging. Carville is a strong Hillary partisan, and the fact that he's starting to support Obama is a very good sign. I don't know if he and Bill Richardson will ever be able to sit in a room together again, but this is a start.

user-pic

This is a second.

Rupert Murdoch was the first today.

:)

This doesn't surprise me. He's been hinting at this for weeks.

user-pic

Ok, I've had a theory for awhile and Carville - whom I still cannot stand - just verified for me.

I think Hillary has fought so hard not because she believes she's the only one who can win. On the contrary, I think she believes and Carville said, whoever the Democrat is is going to win this.

That's why she fought so hard - it's almost a guaranteed win for the Democrat.

They rightly see this election as one in which whatever the sins of the Democratic candidate, the Republicans are so poisonous, the Democrat will win.


Aye, no one can claim both candidates weren't vetted.

user-pic

I agree that any dem breathing would probably win this, except for the clintons. The only dems, in name only by the way, that could lose this one are the clintons. The dems could nominate a nobody and win, as long as its not the clintons. The clintons bring out a terrible reaction in people, rightly or wrongly, and that is why they would never win, especially against mccain. They would lose indies and republicans would come out in droves to vote against them. It would be a slaughter, now obama, look out 300 plus electoral votes.

user-pic

I agree that's probably true.

But that doesn't mean they didn't see it otherwise.

It's just what I've thought for quite some time, mainly cause she argued so vociferously that only she could get elected and I tend to read her backwards these days, like I learned to read the Republicans.

I had the same theory myself. Given all the down ticket Dem popularity and the stench of the Repug brand, Hillary wanted it bad. This election really is for the Dems to lose out of sheer stupidity.

I've read that somewhere quoting "campaign insiders". She and Bill (and others) think this year is a slam dunk for the Dems, so she's willing to scrap for it.

Where can I go - who can I vote for - what can I do - to never have to hear again what this man thinks.

Keith concludes his interview with Scott at 0:50, with a follow-up with John Dean.

Keith told Scott he thought Scott's work was important, well-written, and likely to become a teaching text because of its thorough nature.

It was a tacit accusation of treason at the highest levels of our govt. on a number of fronts.

Next he goes before Fr. Russert on MTP.

Dan Abrams gives over half his show to IraqGate.

drip drip drip

user-pic

I'll say it's accusations of treason - he said George Bush authorized the leaking of Plame's ID.

God I would kiss karma's feet if George, Jr. was prosecuted under the statute George, Sr. had passed into law.

But as president, he may be exempt - I think he's the only one who can declassify that information.

I don't know - it's all coming out and once we get Obama elected and a majority in the Senate, this could get real.

Finally.

hee hee hee

Now Abrams is deconstructing every single defense put up by right-wingers who have clearly hit the panic button.

Pardon my recitations. A coupla reggies have asked for it in the past.

user-pic

No - this is great. I love it when people live blog like this.

Nothing will happen. They blamed the intell.

Check this out:

"Seven of every 10 dollars America now spends on intelligence actually goes to private corporations, where ex-government employees often do the same jobs they used to do—for double the salary. “It's unseemly, and what's worse is that it has become normal,” said one intelligence expert. “The Intelligence Community and the contractors are so tightly intertwined that their interests are identical.”

Source: Salon

Yeah, Tenet is making millions.

THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!!!

user-pic

Yes it is!!

3 cheers for idiotic!

user-pic

But for who?

;-)

user-pic

For us!

For the country!

yeaa! Good for idiotic.

Obviously I didn't scroll down far enough!!! I was just worrying about you upthread!!!! Welcome home! :)

Come on, James. Show some testicular fortitude and endorse Obama.

Greg, I am kind of stunned by this. Carville is no dummy, he's the ultimate opportunist, and pure pol. So, do you think he told you all of this because he knows what's going down this weekend? I mean, this guy could sell ice cubes to eskimos, so something's up here. Do you think he was emboldened by McClellan saying the emperor has no clothes? I mean, really. I worked for the Clinton administration and was always just outside the politics/campaign crap but I am surprised at his candor. What's your take?

T -1 Week to June 4.

In the immortal words of the Titanic, groan, CRACK!, gluggity-glug...

Yes, I guess he is tired of rearranging the deck chairs.

Love the imagery!:)

My guess, he knows when to fold 'em.

When the Atty's for the DNC handed down the ruling that Michigan and Florida, could not be seated the way Hillary wants them to be, it effectively ended the race.

Once that happened, a lot of Hillary's closest friends and supporters may have told her that it was over and that they were now backing Obama.

It's likely that Hillary's support melted away with that ruling.


I Claudius is one of my absolute favorite books, and PBS series! I guess you are right, but it is somewhat reassuring that the absolute realist, Carville the rat, knows the ship is sinking. I wasn't convinced that the ruling would dissuade the Clinton camp, but maybe Carville's musings prove me wrong.

West Texas horntoad look alike man says. "Obama is king - so suck it in Hillary.

What is it like for Dems NOT to be controlled by Clinton ANYMORE? Retirement time for the Clintons - back home to the sticks of AK again. Did Al Gore's pain finally seep in yet? Bushism is a dead end.

Apparently Karl Rove really WASN’T BRILLIANT, at least no more brilliant that Joseph McCarthy.

Totally off-topic, but Harvey Korman has left the building!

who?

Harvey Korman! You know, Carol Burnett Show, Blazing Saddles....

user-pic

O no!


O he will be missed.

Aww! Poor Harvey! I loved him as Hedley Lamarr in Blazing Saddles.

My mind is a raging torrent, flooded with rivulets of thought cascading into a waterfall of creative alternatives!

And I think you'll no longer be sought after as a commentator. Bye, James!

user-pic

We just caught Blazing Saddles while channel surfing - a month or so ago. Even bleeped, it's the funniest damn movie and it holds up.

"Hedley. My name is Hedley Lamar."


Him cracking up on Carol Burnett is why you tuned in. A giant, he will be missed!

He was great but no one in that brilliant movie can hold a candle to Lili von Schtup. Madeline Kahn was a genius.

user-pic

I totally agree.

That was the most beautiful performance. God I loved her.

But that was also my favorite Gene Wilder role - Mel just did that whole thing right.

It's brilliant.

It is frickin' hilarious. The beauty of the movie is that it is so un-PC....there's no way it would get made today.

user-pic

I know - god I love that movie. It doesn't get any more classic than Cleavon and Wilder in that line with all the rest of the scum of the earth, dressed in the Klan robes they get off those guys. Cleavon in that Klan robe is pretty outrageous.

But it's all outrageous.


ROFL Not a fucking chance! They have to bleep the shit out of Brooks' finest work, and it's fairly tame stuff!

If you haven't watched it recently, I heartily recommend it. It's still just as pee-your-pants funny as it was 20 years ago.

And Madeleine Kahn was WONDERFUL, wasn't she?

Is that a ten-gallon hat, or are you just enjoying the show?

Everybody in that movie is awesome. It's just so pitch perfect and you're right - it could NEVER be made today.

And not completely off-topic.

After all, when it comes to these primaries and Hillary's bullshit, I'm certainly ready to sing in my deepest most off-key voice:

I'm so tiwud. So vewy vewy tiwud...
Let's face it - evewything fwom the waist down is KAPUT!

Has anyone seen that email making the rounds with a picture of some kind of tiny pink hairless African mole? The one with the punchline "It could be worse. You could look like a dick with buck teeth"?

Well, it is worse apparently...

Ruh-roh...did anyone else just hear on Dan Abrams that Pelosi and Reid are pushing SDs to choose by next week?

Great news that they're finally stepping up. The bad news is that tomorrow will be inundated with Clinton surrogates screaming that they're trying to push her out.

In addition, I'd like to say that Craig Crawford is a big wanker.

Aye he oversucks the good 'ol boy teat.

Do Clinton surrogates ever stop screaming? this will be different how?

Yeah, JoshuaBlog reported upstairs that Reid stated that he, Dean and Pelosi have all agreed that there will be no Convention fight, that there must be at least 5 months to campaign for the GE, and that simple math dictates that Obama will be the nominee. The only way they can ensure that is if they see to it that the SuperDels come out and shut this thing down so that we can move on.

See y'all tomorrow. I'm off to get dinner.

user-pic

See ya, Evainne.

Have a lovely dinner.

One of the main reasons Obama is not doing better against McCain right now is that Hilary, who does have a lot of support among white working class voters, especially women, has been going after Obama so hard. Those voters, as long as they think Hilary has a chance -- especially if they view as the victim of sexism -- to come over to Obama. Once the choice is Obama v. Clinton, just about all of those voters will come to Obama. And, the Clintons, contrary to all current expectations, will do all they can to help that happen.

Hope you're right on all counts.

It would help if Hillary was to make speech about how important it is for women, to have a Democrat in the WH. Even if she can't bring herself to wholeheartedly endorse Obama, as long as she focuses on what the party can do for women, minorities, the middle class and blue collar workers, it would be OK.

As HBO's Recount showed, the Supreme Court can really f*^& things up. For that reason alone, we have to win in November.

Hmm.. Sounds like Carville caught early wind about Dem leadership moving to bring things to a close next week and doesn't want to look like a laggard.

user-pic

This just occurred to me - maybe Carville is trying to soften her landing somewhat by doing this - starting the process of admission that it's over.

I'm thinking the same thing. This guy doesn't do anything if it's not strategic. He knows she's toast after this weekend, so he's doing the advance work. That's good news as far as I'm concerned, even though the message comes from a scary troll.

Where Carville and his ilk are concerned, there's a gamesmanship involved in these political struggles that eludes a person without health insurance, or with a loved one in the armed forces, or at the mercy of "free" trade legislation. More is the pity.

It's possible that Carville along with other Hillary lieutenants, money people and supporters saw the writing on the wall and decided to do an intervention.

The Atty's for the DNC probably helped a lot with their ruling, once they said that MI and FL could not be fully seated, it was over.

The only thing she could have done was to try and do some kind of appeal but my guess, is that there were a number in her camp who threatened to jump ship, if she went that route.

user-pic

Especially staring at the prospect of not getting paid for their work, the longer this goes on and the more complex she tries to make it.

I agree. If some kind of "unity" is what's desired, Obama HAS to take on SOME of the Clinton supporters. The question is... WHO? Some are utterly appalling, yup. But Carville is an asset of a very interesting sort. Yep, he's rough and rude, and hacked for Hillary in some pretty "unpretty" ways. But look, I don't write off personal loyalty as a 100% negative. Nor being damned good at what he does.

What the guy is, IS whip-crack smart. He talks down home, blunt. Fast - that man can counterpunch. He tells stories, knows his political history. He's funny. Rude. So I'm not sure... given the choices.... if having a well-known, formerly pro-Clinton face like his upfront - since talk tv is still gonna be dominated by bad-smelling, negative Republican slop - is such a bad idea.

Just sayin'. And of the Clinton people who get ON the bus, Carville'd at least be damned entertaining.

user-pic

He is nothing more than an opportunist and his wife sits on Dick Cheney's lap.

Obama doesn't need to take on any of her people - are you mad? He has his own campaign staff - and they are doing one incredibly good job.

Nice of the Carville Manimal to want to be seen on the winning side when it comes right down to it.

Not sayin' Obama's team aren't hot. They are. And I LOVE it that they are. But it's just worth noting that even Axelrod - who's done a great job - used to work for.... Hillary. And before that... Bill. As well as Mayor Daley, and Spitzer and Edwards.

Sometimes these people have values and dreams of their own, and then they work with the best candidates they can find at THAT TIME, and then.... they move up.

The Cajun may not be your thing, fair enough, but that boy walked through freaking FLAMES of hatred for the Dems, when the Repugs were on the ascendancy, not collapsing. When you've been through wars with people, like he has, sometimes it's not easy to just walk away. Anyhoo. Glad Axelrod's there. And I suspect he'll take help from anyone he truly regards as an asset - so... we'll see.

Carville is not Obama's style, thank God. Obama very, very carefully controls his message.

I think we'll be seeing Carville making the circiut with the Talking Heads.

Now THAT'S a show I'd pay to see!

Quinn,

I think I was the first Carville supporter in this thread. It didn't make me any friends. :)

That said, I stand by it. He's a damned fine strategist and could be a real asset in the campaign. He's a streetfighter and, at some point, we will need one.

Should he have a role in an Obama administration? No. He's all about the campaign and I'm ready for a president who will GOVERN from Day One, not run for re-election. But he could be a helluva bulldog media surrogate until 2012.

The Carter campaign took on Teddy's people in 1980. It's a drag, but Obama kinda hasta.

user-pic

Really - I had no idea.

I worked for Carter in 1980 and it was tough. Some Carter people who thought they should be promoted, felt let down because they had to fall on their swords and make room for Teddy's people.

It didn't help that some of Ted's people weren't cool, but that wasn't Ted's fault.

Obama hiring at least some of Hillary's people will probably be part of the peace treaty. Most of them are probably far superior to their boss, character wise, so it'll be OK.

user-pic

The angel of my better nature gives props to Carville for his role in ending 12 years of Reagan/Bush 1 in 1992. He and Stephi boy were heroes of mine after I saw the "War Room" documentary all those years ago. I have to think Obama and Axelrod learned a thing or two from their rapid responses to Bush/Quayle.

But boy how quickly those heroes fall! I could have pummeled Carville for that Judas crap and pummeled Stephi for that putrid debate.

[Or, as my brother Groucho said it best, "I have a good mind to ring his doorbell and run." :) ]

Re "I have a good mind to ring his doorbell and run."

LOL! Fab-ulous!

Er, ah, I think they were both Republicans....