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Bill Clinton: Are Caucuses More Important Than Primaries?

Bill Clinton has taken another step in the Hillary campaign's arguments about the Democratic popular vote, bluntly telling a crowd in Puerto Rico that super-delegates and the party as a whole will have to judge just how much caucuses should matter.

"And the party will have to decide whether they believe the caucuses -- where you get about one delegate for 2000 votes -- are more important than the primaries where you get one for 12,000," Bill told the crowd.

This is on top of a line from Hillary's new letter to super-delegates, in which she predicted that by the time this race is over, she will have won more pledged delegates from primaries -- a subtle message that Obama's victories in caucus states are illusory as far as how much support they truly represent for him.


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Bill Clinton has become my favorite comedian.

This is sad stuff. Clinton is embarrassing himself with such weak arguments. It now seems that participating in caucuses may be hazardous to your representation.

But this, of course, is just one of many occasions in which he has embarrassed himself. Just last week he was making outrageous claims in Montana. Fortunately, there is a unique pictorial representation of his activities on the trail.

"Bill in Montana and Florida"
http://msa4.wordpress.com/

It's insulting. Besides, even comparing closed primaries to open and semi-open primaries lacks a common denominator, which is why delegates are used as a common currency.

Caucuses serve a purpose. They test a candidate's volunteer force and organization. Why shouldn't the people who are willing to put in hours of their own time have more say in the nomination process than the people who just put up a sign on their lawn, and vote for their candidate? We want a candidate who not only candidate who not only get people to go to the polls, but not enough volunteers to mount a successful campaign?

But bigger than that -- I fear the precedent that will be set if superdelegates use the total popular vote as the metric. If you think proportional allocation produces a never-ending process, well, using popular vote as a metric will be far worse. Every candidate, thinking if he or she can get the most aggregate votes, the superdelegates will overrule the pledged delegates, will have great reason to stay in the race until June. I don't think the superdelegates want to set that kind of precedent.

Disgraceful.

I really wonder how those SDs from Caucus states feel about the Clintons demeaning the caucus process.

Well, I live in Minnesota and I find his suggestion absolutely disgusting. I, I just don't even know what to say. I cannot believe a former President, one who became the nominee from primary and caucus states could even suggest this. State's rights, Bill, state's rights.....

Bill's losing his marbles, Joseph, losing his marbles ...

oops. i thought SD meant sexy dancer.

Should the SuperDelegates also decide how important Puerto Rico should be since they aren't a state and can't vote in the GE?

Okay. This has become a full-court press of unbounded narcissism. It's not funny anymore. I'm completely convinced that Saturday morning will be Brook Brothers Riot Redux and the Clintons are hellbent on taking this to the Convention.

The Clintons have no regard for the Democratic Party and will hold no regrets over any damage this entitlement-induced fight will do to it.

I don't know what happens from here. But I can't comfortably buy the popular assertion that this will be over in a week.

Sort of like Bush wanting to go to war in Iraq because it would make him great and him being a War President is so cool.

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"And the party will have to decide whether they believe the caucuses -- where you get about one delegate for 2000 votes -- are more important than the primaries where you get one for 12,000," Bill told the crowd.
And they're using this argument to appeal to superdelegates ... who are one delegate for, um, no votes other than their own.

That's suppose to somehow be more representative?

Ah, but irony somehow escapes them.

Caucuses should not be legal.... all states should have to hold primary's


I am so looking forward to May 31, 2008 :)

Hillary good luck with Michigan and Florida:)


GO HILLARY!!!!!!!!!

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It would have been nice if any of these peoples decrying caucuses would have expressed their concerns sometime BEFORE the primary began.

But they didn't. Because nobody considered caucuses undemocratic until Hillary started losing them.

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No shit...they've had, um, a couple hundred years to fix it. Now that a few people have chosen this year to pretend to know something, it's all of a sudden a bad thing to have caucuses. I wonder if the people running that line realize how imbecilic they sound.

Yes, yes....why didn't Bill express this heartfelt opinion sometime in December in, say, Iowa?

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Or more to the point, during the eight years when he was president and his people were running the DNC and writing most of the rules we now operate under. The Dean DNC renegotiated plenty of stuff, like the the other early primaries, but nothing has changed about whether states should have primaries or caucuses since Bill's time.

Perfectly fine. You'll have four years to help craft the solution.

The rules for this election are set.

Now, hands off!

Since I pledged to try to be nice to Clinton and her supporters on another thread, here I will attempt a reasoned argument and express my amazement that Clinton's view is considered
D(d)emocratic (big or small d) to understand, agree to, and participate under the election rules established prior to the elections and then, when losing under those rules, attempt to change them. Apply this to caucuses, Florida and Michigan.

Apparently this strikes Clinton supporters as showing they want a fighter in the White House. What I see is someone who ignores established rules to get what they want and creates rules that favor only themselves. Why does that sound familiar? Why? Why? Oh, now I remember! Because we are living right now under such an administration. That's worked out well, hasn't it?

I hope the Super Delegates and those involved in the Saturday meeting decide the real issue:

Does Hillary Clinton have the ethical standards we should expect from a POTUS? The answer is clearly "NO." and I'm not talking about bogus stuff we read from Republicans.

Lied about Bosnia trip.
Lied about Ireland talks.
Lied about commitment to Florida & Michigan.

Yet she blames others for all of this while also refusing to apologize for her vote for Iraq and Iran and never apologizing to the Obama family for her comments about assassination.

She has a personality defect to the point she cannot see her own errors anymore; and Bill is worse than she is in that area.

Concise and accurate.

Kudos!

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Although I support a different candidate, I have to admire and respect your relentlessly positive attitude. You don't diss people, HillaryClinton08, and you aren't conspiracy-minded. You exude boundless enthusiasm for your candidate. Good for you.

It is a Party nomination process. Actual primaries are relatively new. In 1968 only 13 states had them and Hubert Humphrey won none of them. A party can select their nominee any way they choose. They could go "rock, paper, scissors" and it would be fine. It is THEIR nomination. Not the public's.

Pathetic.

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In my opinion there should be no primaries, only caucuses. As has been stated by so many over this cycle, we are not electing a president in this stage of the process. We are selecting the person to represent the party in the election of the president. Why we let republicans and independents help Democrats determine their candidate is beyond understanding. Even those claiming to be democrats but do nothing to understand candidates, issues, and the process should not be allowed to help chose the person representing the party.

Denis

I have to say I'm kind of torn on your stance against open primaries.

On one hand, I understand and share your frustration with people who don't bother to take the time out to understand the issues, etc., and instead vote on name recognition or for other ridiculous reasons (in 2004, a dear friend of mine, who is typically apolitical, voted for Bush because Cheney reminded her of her father - I couldn't decide whether to be mad at the ridiculousness of it or to feel bad for her because of the obvious need for some therapy).

On the other hand, though, I don't think it's necessarily a bad thing to let independents vote in the primaries. Don't we want a candidate who can appeal to independents? In addition, I think it helps to engage people outside of the party into the process and helps to introduce the eventual nominee to them. I think that's probably a good thing.

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In Virginia, there is no party declaration to be made. We are all just open voters here so it would require the state to change the way we register to vote in order to change the primary from open to closed.

It's the same here in GA - you just choose your ballot on the day of the primary.

Is this intentional or unintentional parody?

Count every vote, except the caucuses?

The energy it takes to lie, spin and dissemble their way through this process, would power a small town. Bizarrely, it's all moot anyway, because Obama is within spitting distance of the nomination.

The sheer absurdity of it all!


If this man doesn't jump through hoops to get Obama elected in November, I'm in favor of the media fully re-opening all of those half-closed investigations.

OT: I hope you guys beat the hell out of Alabama in Atlanta!

Maybe we will...if we can manage to keep it out of overtime.

Politics and southern college football. What else do you need, right? :)

I remember back in '92 there were planes trailing "No Draft Dodgers For President" at the football games. Ah, those were the days. These days, I'm kind of wishing we listened to them.

I just want them to go away........

Ditto. I don't think I want him anywhere near the GE campaign trail. Look at how pathetic he is now. Obama doesn't need that kind of "help" in the GE.

I'm starting to wish this fucking scumbag was impeached.

He was impeached, actually. He wasn't convicted.

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I used to feel sorry for the putz. Now I wish he was convicted for lying under oath. He lies all the time, maybe it might have changed him for the better and stopped the lying. It's really disgusting.

What of the vaunted Clintonian political skills?

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Clintonian = lying. It really is sad, but we have had 15 years now of administrations that have lied about everything from civil rights to wars. Why can't people just be honest and let the chips fall where they may. It's really depressing.

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15? You're being way too nice. What about Reagan? He was a superb liar as was everyone in his administration, many who also just happen to be in this administration.

I totally agree about Reagan - but with Reagan it almost seemed like he was a little too "confused" to understand that he was lying. With Bill, you know he knows he's lying to you - even when he looks you straight in the eye and wags his finger in your face.

Look over there Bill,pudgy interns with cheeseburgers!(anything to make him stop)

I wonder how much of this is not necessarily out of vanity, narcissism, or ambition, but out of the need for basic survival. Think about it: the Colombians have paid a significant amount of money to Bill for "speaking fees," and if the Clintons don't deliver by winning and passing the free trade agreement with Colombia, they're in deep trouble. My understanding is that you don't want to screw around with the Colombians. Or for that matter, any one of the other sketchy entities that have paid BIll (Uzbekistan, Clinton LIbrary/foundation donors, etc.).

He needs her to win so he can collect another 100mill in consulting and speeches....It's not about us it's about MONEY!

I'm as disgusted with Bill and Hillary Clinton as you are, but in fairness, he makes a lot more money by her not winning because pesky ethics rules won't apply. Post-presidency, of course, is another matter entirely.

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The Colombian government isn't going to knock off a former POTUS because he didn't deliver a trade agreement. Colombia is a our closest partner in South America and the government isn't run by drug cartels either!

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Caucuses should not be legal.... all states should have to hold primary's

So true. Caucuses should be banned. They're only for those holier-than-thou, elitist, Democratic activists who want to hang around and talk about the candidates and help build their party's platform, rather than just drop by for a quick vote and leave.

Besides, caucuses are patently unfair to those candidates who have to rely on name recognition and voters with short attention spans to jack up their popular vote count.

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I used to be against the caucuses until I looked into them and their purposes. They actually are good for the party as you point out and help build the party and in a way are more democratic than the primaries. I hope this ridiculous scorched earth primary doesn't cause state parties to abandon caucuses in the future. The clintons really are pathetic. I am soooo sick of them. Major clinton fatigue.

Exactly.

I've never participated in one, but I've talked with those who have, and caucuses are the epitome of our process. Common folk talking about candidates, listening to their representatives, learning --- unfiltered! --- about what the candidates believe.

That's the process at its finest. Caucusers don't totally discount the big-money advertising of candidates, but I think the discussions that go on --- neighbor to neighbor --- carry much more weight.

That's the way it should be. It's advertising and the media that have ruined the process.

They were designed to insure that low information voters didn't come under the sway of some empty suit. The rationale was that only those so committed to the Democratic Party to participate in a caucus should be involved in that process. Thus the multiple levels of commitment. In short, it was designed to protect the establishment candidate.

Funny how that didn't work out this time.

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I don't know about that conclusion about being designed to protect the establishment candidate. However, caucuses are basically the way that the country actually voted for president and reps until around 1900. People would gather in a room on election day and have at it and try to persuade their fellow citizens to vote for their respective candidates. There were no secret ballots and hidden voting. It was all in the open, just like a caucus, and then the results of the voting would be passed up the food chain. It's kind of fascinating when you think about it and then throw in all the other points about party building and civic action. Caucuses are a good thing and should not be demeaned and degraded like the clintons are doing.

They were designed to insure that low information voters didn't come under the sway of some empty suit.

In this case you mean an empty "pant suit".

Attention, superdelegates from caucus states ....

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Thank you, Bill Clinton, for telling my state we don't count as much as those other states. Yes. Fuck you very much.

Where was all this fauxtrage over caucuses before Hillary lost so many? Where was all the fauxtrage over Michigan and Florida before she needed every delegate she could beg, borrow or steal?

They have no principles. It's pathetic.

Have I told you lately that I love your avatar?

And, by extension --- and, moreover, through your comments --- you?

;)

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Ah, shucks, thanks.

Now give me a golden egg! I want it now!

Nope.

Not until Nov. 4!

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Now give me a golden egg! I want it now!

Phoebe, are you entirely sure you don't want a squirr'l?

These remarks up the chances this is headed to court to a full 75%. Two lawyers who never give up and convinced they are entitled to be right?

This is what we call an infinite loop. Someone ought to pour warm rootbeer over it until it stops making that horrid clang.

Wouldn't a court dismiss this outright? Isn't the DNC its own arbiter?

I'm no lawyer. Just askin' ...

Assuming they didn't go against precedent. If they did, I imagine we'd suddenly be asked to disregard any comparisons to 2000.

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Uh, 2000 is irrelevant to a nomination dispute. A court will not get involved in a party's nomination contest no matter how much the clintons try to change the rules of the game after the fact. The rules are the rules and the clintons lost. It's really not that complicated.

I may not have been clear. My point was that if the courts imposed a ruling on the party it would go against legal precedent that says the party can sort out its own shit. (Today's dismissal of the Florida case was consistent with that precedent.) Since breaking with its own previous positions was a common complaint about the Supreme Court's decision to stop the voting in 2000, the Clintons' evocation of that election debacle, which is convenient for them now, would suddenly no longer support their position, and they'd then have to do yet another 180.

er, stop the vote counting

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But see, that is the wonderfulness of the insane Bush v. Gore ruling... it applied to Bush v. Goree and no other matter. So even that "precedent" of the SCOTUS breaking all precedent is no precedent ever again according to its own ruling. Try that Mรถbius strip of logic out for a test spin.

(wry grin)

That FL lawsuit was dismissed? Do you have a link?

And why am I asking a commenter on this blog for this information? Are Greg and Eric's heads now offically so far up Howard Wolfson's ass that they don't even bother to get news about the campaign from any other source?

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Exactly. The party could decided their nomination by playing rock-paper-scissors and no court would say boo about it and the Constitution would back them up 100%.

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The court in Florida just dismissed the case against the DNC over their votes not counting. The court said that the DNC has the right to make their own rules in how they nominate a candidate.

I'm sorry, I just can't bag on Bill anymore. There comes a point when an entity is in such bad taste that it rounds the bend and enters the realm of Art. Considered in this context, Bill Clinton is now Plan 9 From Outer Space and, if the campaign goes another two months, might well become Citizen Kane.

Think about it. A former president is trying to drum up votes in Puerto Rico by arguing that Iowa doesn't matter.

(James Lipton voice)

Brilliant!

ROFL!

Bill Lugosi!

How about Billa Lugosi?

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That was funny and an excellent point. Very funny.

Is, per chance, Bill's pet name for Hillary ... Rosebud?!?!?!

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Well Bill can certainly kiss my 'rosebud' the way he is fucking up the party and his legacy.

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Reminds me of a scene from "Ghost World":

Rebecca: This is so bad it's almost good.
Enid: This is so bad it's gone past good and back to bad again.

Fabulous!

"They come from the bowels of hell, a transformed race of walking, dead zombies, guided by a master plan for complete domination of the Earth!"

"Plan Nine from Outer Space!"

http://www.imdb.com/video/screenplay/vi2442920217/

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Billy? Sidekick? FUCK YOU! Billy did not deserve to smell my shit! That slimey cocksucker can rot in Hell for all I care! - Bela Lugosi

Bill has gone totally insane

Didn't give a shit about MI and FL until she started losing. Didn't have any problem with the caucus process until she started losing them.

Could they be any more fucking transparent?

Maybe you guys are more tied into this than I am, but I was shocked to read the chronology that was included with the DNC's 38-page memo today.

After Florida's Republican legislature voted to set the date of the primary at Jan. 29 (which we've heard sooooo much about), the DNC met with Florida's party leaders at least twice and floated at least two solutions that would have resulted in a full count of the state's delegates.

Proposal number one was a vote-by-mail primary. The Florida Democratic Pary said no.

The second proposal was a CAUCUS. Furthermore, the DNC offered to subsidize the caucus with $880,000. Still, the FDP said no.

Combine that with what was obviously token opposition to resetting the date for the primary by the Florida House minority leader (basically a wink and a nod --- and there's YouTube evidence) and Florida SHOULD PAY!

The Florida Democratic Party and the Clinton campaign --- which has continually laid the blame of the January primary date at the feet of the Republican legislature --- have both been extremely disingenuous.

Sorry for the length.

I'm PISSED!

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It's funny now to hear the FDP make like they're victims in this. I'm on their mailing list and they were sounding pretty cocky and wanting to call the DNC's bluff last year. They were told what would happen and they pushed it anyway.

I would love to see those emails.

Is there any doubt that the Clintons are BAD for the Democratic Party? They've worked overtime to undermine this entire primary season just to further their political ambitions. It's disgusting and frankly every registered Democrat should be shouting them down at every turn. Just sad and pitiful.

Somebody needs to put a stop to this. The Clintons are destroying the democratic party, NOT enhancing it. Having two bitterly divided camps DOES NOT PROMOTE UNITY IN THE END. Hillary has three or four scenarios where she could be sElected based on a tie, but each scenario counts on disenfranchising some democratic voters (well actual whole states full), who voted when they were supposed to, in a fair election. Each scenario also ignores Obama's stellar organizing and GOTV efforts, as well as the small donors he has attracted to build a war chest, in lieu of HRC being the leader of the elusive DINO vote. We dont need DINOS in 2008, we need Democratic voters. TELL HER TO STOP, DEM LEADERS!

As much as I agree with you, I have to tell myself that it'll be over in a few days. The SDs know the outcome of the next three contests. They know that MI & FL were not legitimate. They are just giving her (unwarranted) respect by waiting until Tuesday. That's what I tell myself.

This has been my hope all along. After the meeting Saturday and then the final contests on Tuesday, I'm hoping that the superdelegates will coalesce around Obama.....in high enough numbers that even if she chooses to take it to the convention, it won't matter.

Bill Clinton sucks.

And Hillary Clinton sucks.

To think that I actually wanted HRC to win as late as last December! No, never. Better if they lost for good now.

From time to time, Click, or is it Clack, one of the Car Talk brothers says he was once awarded a "Half Bright." Now we know where the other half went.

I did not have caucuses with that woman...

Whoops!

Devil with the blue-stain dress.

Your legacy.
Thanks for nuttin', Bill.

I think you make a great point.

Despite Lewinsky, Bill Clinton is the only two-term Democratic president since FDR. Among true-blue Democrats --- like myself and, I'm sure, many of you --- that's something to be proud of.

Yet he's destroying his legacy.

Does Hillary have that firm a hold on his sack?!?

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Well, technically Truman served two terms, but was only elected to POTUS once.

I think that's their revenge. They know we need unity to succeed and they know they have to pretend to be for it to salvage their future.
But if they have to swallow their price and pretend to want Obama as President, they want it to be as painful for us as it is for them.
So they will be as obnoxious and offensive as they can, knowing full can we cannot say anything "out of unity". If they are going to have to go through this, they want to go crazy with frustration as well.

Yeah, they're like the angry spouse who lose custody of the kids, and takes them hostage. Or the spouse who doesn't get the house in the divorce settlement and burns it down, so that no can have it.

At this point, it would be a negative to have Hillary campaigning for Obama in the fall. He can win without her.

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It seems like every time I see a clip of Bill nowadays, he's got a water bottle in one hand and the mike in the other and it goes something like "...they're all sayin' [blah-blah-blah] she ain't [blah-blah-blah] I never seen nuthin' like this before in my life...nobody wants her to [blah-blah-blah] everybody's bad mouthin' her [blah-blah-blah] they all want her to [blah-blah-blah]...

Who the fuck are "they", Bill? An army of strawmen?

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that's what I'm wondering; who are all of these people that he is arguing against?

And who, at this point, is still listening to Bill?

Seriously.

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I can guarantee that ever caucus goer counts more than any voters in PR come November.

ooooh. good one! nice... like it or not, puerto rico won't be voting in the general election. there is that straw poll though.....

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Unity or not, I don't want that human blunderbuss out campaigning for Obama. He'll sink his chances for sure. Gore was right not to ask Bill to campaign with him in 2000.

This place is indistinguishable from Free Republic. I've heard some trippy Clinton conspiracy theories from Republicans, but they ain't got nothin on this crowd. Bravo TPM.

If Hillary tanks, wo will hire him to speak? If they don't make it to te next rung, who will hire him at 200K a pop?
It's about money!

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What are you talking about?

Bill and Hllls personal fortune have been directly related to their perceived political pull!
Should Hill and Bills political lustre dull. Where do you think the speaking and cpnsulting fees go?

I think Lestat was responding to Mark Simmons.

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You are correct.

That said, I assumed kawika49 reply was misdirected by TPM's wonderfully fucked up commenting system.

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The true meaning of an "elitist". The "elite" is a section of society that is above the rest, meaning that the normal rules don't really apply to them.

Ms. Clinton signed on to a set of rules. These rules are now considered a problem, so she wants to change them. Normal people don't get to change the rules, but Bill and Hillary want them to change to their benefit.

It seems obvious to me that Bill is now totally invested in Hillary's candidacy, and therefore has tainted her position. Their actions display an "entitled and elitist" position, sorry to say. I was very inspired in 1992 by Bill, after Nixon and Reagan and Bush. No more.

BP

For some reason I think the HRC folks are gonna get yelled at soon, like Charlie and Grampa at the end of Willy Wonka, except they will NOT win anyway.

SDs: You lose! Good day, Mam!

Bill: You're a crook! You're a cheat and a swindler!
That's what you are. How can you do a thing like this?
Build up a little girl's hopes and then smash all her dreams
to pieces. You're an inhuman monster!

SDs: I said Good Day!


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I'm picturing it more like Corky in Waiting for Guffman. "You people are bastard people!!"

He should invite McCain on a MONTH LONG fact finding tour of the 10 poorest counties in the US:

1 Buffalo County, South Dakota $5,213
2 Shannon County, South Dakota $6,286
3 Starr County, Texas $7,069
4 Ziebach County, South Dakota $7,463
5 Todd County, South Dakota $7,714
6 Sioux County, North Dakota $7,731
7 Corson County, South Dakota $8,615
8 Wade Hampton, Alaska $8,717
9 Maverick County, Texas $8,758
10 Apache County, Arizona $8,986

Come on John, what's the problem?

Sorry, meant to be posting on a different page.

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Excellent points though. Thanks.

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My great-grandma grew up in Buffalo County.
Yay, us. Way. To. Go. Us!

As, I think, would the Obama campaign.

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Bill makes a good point. Obama's supporters may be enthusiastic & idealistic, but are they really *representative* of the party? No getting around the fact that the caucus states are skewing perceptions in Obama's favor - he's weaker than he looks - which could spell big trouble in November. Supers, think VERY HARD before making your commitments ...

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Nonsense.

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And, the clintons could ever win the general election? Are you kidding me? If they would steal the nomination, mccain's numbers would go up exponentially, he would immediately be flooded with cash and the down ticket dems would be in big trouble. Oh, right that sounds marvelous. The supers should have shut this down in February and there wouldn't be all this disunity and division in the party thanks to the clintons. Pathetic.

Just when we thought the trolls had gone to bed.

Be gone!

You've lost!

Caucus states don't "skew" anything. Their delegates are apportioned roughly to their relative strength in the Electoral College, just like the primary states.

In 1992 I was an enthusiastic, idealistic, WJC supporter. Although WJC didn't win Iowa, he won lots of other caucus states. But the Clintons who want to make every vote count didn't want that in the Nevada caucuses.

It's just disgraceful that the Clintons were cheated out of the nomination because, obviously, no one told them the rules before the game started.

The illegitmacy tour continues.

I don't why anyone thinks she's getting out. She can't very well turn around next week and concede. Her argument is that he is not the "real" nominee. She's in until the convention and beyond.

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Very pithy. Quick - copyright it!

I'm starting to get that look with Bill Clinton that I do with McCain now. Kind of like - "awww, you poor thing."

No.

Not "poor thing."

I gave this guy money in 1992 and 1996. Arguably a greater percentage of my income than I've committed to Obama to date. I wrote him several letters and received one hand-written response (got two others that were obviously boilerplate). I was on his Christmas card list all eight years he was in the White House.

But, as we say in the South, I'll guaran-damn-TEE you that, after reading this tonight, I'm upping my contributions to Obama. I'm sure I'm not the only former Bill supporter who feels like this. This whole situation with Hillary (the lies and the goalposts on wheels) has angered me more with Bill than it would have had I not been such a supporter.

As I said above, I'm PISSED!

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I humbly suggest you also write a letter telling them that you are rightfully pissed at them over this.

You're right.

Unless someone can find a better address and post it to this thread, this is the address I'm using:

Bill Clinton
c/o William J. Clinton Foundation
55 West 125th St.
New York, NY 10027

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The narrative seems pretty clear: The nominating contest is basically a tie. The only way for B. to win is for H. to drop out (and vice versa). So B's supporters are trying to change the story, claiming that he's already won since he has more delegates (although not enough to win) and that, by presenting her case to the supers, H. is cheating. *groan*

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More delusional nonsense.

Obama needs 45 delegates to clinch the nomination outright, there are 282 left (86 pledged and 196 supers). Even if Obama loses MT, SD and PR by 60-40 margins (which isn't going to happen) he will need only 13 SDs to announce support for him to clinch the nomination outright.

It is simple math.

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I agree that the narrative is clear. The nominating contest is not "basically a tie." It hasn't been a tie since February. The clintons lost. They can whine and complain all they want, but they lost.

No it's not. By the only metric that counts, the delegate total, Obama is currently ahead by 5.2 percentage points.

If by basically a tie, you mean Obama is leading by almost 200 delegates, then I think we all are on the same page.

She needs 86% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination under the 2026 scenario. After Tuesday, that number is going to be a lot closer to 100% of the remaining delegates. But you are right about one thing, the only for HRC to win is for Obama to drop out. That's her ONLY avenue to victory.

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Nice try but Obama is up by almost 200 delegates -- not close enough to call it a tie.

The unfortunate truth for the Clinton campaign is that they screwed up this election with a terrible strategy. Not competing in the post-super Tuesday states was a fatal error.

There is no case to be made to superdelegates at this point that could possibly move their support towards Clinton. They are doing her a favor by not coming out with their support until after the final primary (although some are too scared of angering either the Clinton supporters or the Obama supporters to ever make their support publicly known.)

No, the problem for the Clintons is that they've had the math against them for about months and none of their "kitchen sink" strategy has worked well enough for her to win -- only enough to hurt Obama and the chances for the Dems in the fall.

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... So it's against the rules for SDs to flip away from Obama once they've declared for him? - Because it's been ok for them to flip away from Hillary. I believe there's been a double standard all primary season long, but this would really be too much!

Otherwise - if flipping *is* allowed (which I think it is) - Obama still really couldn't claim victory until the the convention, when all votes are cast. And H. would be well within her rights to "work" the supers for the next two months, which I hope she does.

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Hey, great idea! Let's piss away the rest of the summer not knowing who our candidate is going to be, and come out of the convention deeply divided thanks to an all-out brawl that awards the nomination to the candidate with negatives over 50% who is known to "energize" the nutbag base of the Republican party, and flip a big goddamn bird to the Democratic Party's largest and most reliable voting bloc.

Sounds like a sure-fire path to victory to me!

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Supers can vote however they want. But the scenario you point out means the party will literally go into political civil war and she will still lose, AND destroy her future in the party going forward to boot.

If you think that is a wise course, for Hillary or the party, then it confirms my previous assertion that you arguments are delusional nonsense.

I personally don't think the Clinton's are that maniacal or stupid, but you may be right that they are.

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You know, I don't disagree with what you are saying about "working the supers" for two months. The problem that I have is the method being employed. Some examples are:

1. Caucus states don't count.

2. The states that didn't vote for me don't count.

3. The people that didn't vote for me don't count.

4. I won the popular vote, by not counting the states that I don't think count.

5. Hard working white people won't vote for obama.

6. I am fighting for all votes to be counted in Michigan and Florida, when she and her people approved and abided by the sanctions so that the Michigan and Florida primaries wouldn't count. By the way, I bet New Hampshire and Iowa and Nevada and South Carolina would like to do a revote right now as well.

7. People are disrespecting her.

8. People are telling her to get out of the race.

9. People are keeping secrets and there is some big conspiracy to not let people know that she can win the general election and by the way pigs will fly.

Etc., etc., etc.

That's the problem I have. The arguments that they have been using drive a further wedge through the party and only hurt the dems chances in November.

It really is a moot point though because after Tuesday the supers will move en masse to obama. The clintons will keep whining til August and will probably cause a floor fight at the convention. However, hopefully the party can recover in time for November and everybody, including the media, just ignores the clintons' whining and complaining. That is about the best case scenario right now.

And all her jockeying and posturing has NOTHING to do with the issues. It's never about a fair debate over the issues. It's always about how much sand can we fling into the air to get our way?

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Yep. It's been that sand flinging for almost a year now. Why hasn't there been this big issue debate? She's supposedly some policy "wonk" and its been all about disparaging obama and the campaign that he has run.

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What I still don't understand is why *H.* should drop out.

The only way either can win is if the other one drops out. So maybe *Obama* is the one who should unify the convention & avoid political civil war & ruining *his* political future ... by dropping out!

For folks who don't relish that potentiality, here's a nice middle ground: Don't ask either to drop out. Let the voting continue, count all the votes (including MI/FL), let each side plead their cases to the supers, and take it to the convention.

That's what conventions are for!

Double standards ...

Well there is the little matter of him being ahead by 5.2 percent points...

Iraqgate will consume another news cycle at least as Scott makes the rounds. A lot of people, esp. in the media, are feeling betrayed. I wonder if this wasn't the match that ignited this scandel, because there is enough kindling and dry brush there to burn for years and years and years.

The WH defense was exceedingly tepid. There was a point when Watergate took on a life of its own, about the time a GOP Rep stood up and said "enough."

It's only a matter of time. For Sen Clinton, it is a fire removing all her oxygen at the moment.

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What I still don't understand is why *H.* should drop out.

As others up-thread have already stated, it will piss away the rest of the summer not knowing who our candidate is going to be, (which will continue to give McCain a free pass) and the party come out of the convention deeply divided thanks to an all-out brawl which Clinton would still lose.

What part of that do you disagree with?

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Crap. That was in reply to Footsie at 1:17 AM.

I really wish TPM would get an actual content management system with real commenting features.

The part where they are told "no." This word has no translation in Clintonese. Bill believes it to be a derivative of the verb "to rut".

There's more than Egyptian monuments on denial.

So if caucuses are not going to count, per ClintonRules, then that means no Democrat will be required to make the pilgrimage to Iowa in the dead of winter to pay homage to corn growers and other quaint rural folks (I be a quaint rural folk so I can use that term).

Has anyone broken the news to the Iowa Congressional delegation that their importance as the first in the nation is over because of ClintonRules?

While the economy did well under Bubba Bush, I personally found the man to be reprehensible in his personal life and feel that he brought dishonor to the presidency. IMHO.

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I agree that H. is far from blameless, and I agree the supers may well bolt toward O. in the next few days making all further discussion academic. But consider ...

- I don't hold the MI/FL spectacle against her. No sane politician would stand by things that were said months ago, in vastly different circumstances, when the stakes are this big. Obama certainly didn't stand by Jeremiah Wright when the relationship stood in the way of O's ambitions! FL, in particular, rankles because its calendar change was the result of Repub. dirty tricks; and anyway, O. violated *his* pledge not to campaign in that state. The FL dels, at least, should definitely be awarded to H.

- Regarding caucus states vs. primaries: Bill C. is just *right* - the math is what it is - The causus states are weighed too heavily. To ridicule H. for complaining about the rules at this late date reminds me of a cop who gives you a ticket for running a red light on your way to the emergency room - correct on the very narrow point of law, but missing the big picture (which, in Hillary's case, is getting the best candidate and best future prez).

- Same point about her "popular vote" argument to the supers. The last time the popular vote winner failed to get the "official nod" was 2000 with Al Gore, and it's very disturbing for O.'s supporters to sound so much like Fox-perts and Bush flunkies: "Popular vote totals don't count with us, it's only official tallies that matter ..."

- Her arguments about "hard-working white voters," while artlessly expressed, really do matter: If there's any doubt that O. can beat McC. in Ohio/Penn/WV/KY/IN, then the supers should think long & hard about whom to support. I've heard O. supporters claim to have a new electoral map, but this would be very risky.

- H. has been beat-down so much about negative campainging that she can't say this is public, but O.'s hypocrisy - every bit as bad as her's - makes my skin crawl. Throwing Jeremiah under the bus after flunkying for him for 20 years ... calling for the IN loser to drop out until he wound up losing ... "sweetie" ... "bitter" ... trying to ignore MI/FL ... outspending her 3 to 1 and STILL losing 6 of the last 8 primaries (whatever happened to campaign finance reform, which his progressive supporters used to support?) ... It really makes me very uncomfortable with Barack.

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Sorry but every point you raise is either erroneous, or ill-informed personal opinion.

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if you don't hold FL/MI against Hillary because it is like Obama with Rev. Wright, why do you hold Rev. Wright against Obama?

The problem in 2000 wasn't that Bush won the electoral vote and Gore the popular vote; the problem that in one state only the spread of victory for Bush was so tiny that it triggered a hand recount. The outdated punch-card voting meant that the original machine count discounted every vote where the punch didn't dislocate all 4 corners of the hole, when the intention of the voter was very clear to a hand-recounter. So the question was: do you stick with the machine way of counting the ballots, which ignored the intention of the voter and had to do with proper punching technique, or do you use human judgment? The Supreme Court simply stopped the recount in order to avoid determining an answer. It had nothing whatsoever to do with a popular-vote-should-overturn-electoral vote debate. The sting for Democrats in 2000 was that the will of the people was subsumed under outdated technology and bad graphic design (in the case of the butterfly ballot), and that human intelligence was not allowed to correct for it.

Regarding campaign finance reform: The whole idea of campaign finance reform is to prevent a few, privileged, rich backers from donating huge amounts of money to a campaign, because then the politician would owe them favors, disrupting a government for the people and by the people. Obama raised an unprecedented amount of money from nearly 3 _million_ average people who in most cases gave less than $100 each. He's spending the money because people gave him that money to spend because they believe in his cause and want to see him succeed. There's nothing untoward going on here. The reason Clinton spent less in those states isn't because of moderation on her part but that many fewer people are giving to her cause so she can't spend any more, and her campaign has gone $10+ million in debt just trying to cobble together a third of what Obama has to work with.

Third, Obama _did_ stand by Jeremiah Wright when the first set of clips made their way to YouTube; his eloquent speech on race relationships was remarkable in large part because it would have been expedient to throw Wright under the bus, but Obama tried to show us another side to his pastor, to see him as a human being rather than a caricature, gave him the benefit of the doubt and tried to get us to understand where the kind of dark emotions that we were seeing might come from. Only later, when Wright decided to capitalize on his newfound stage of notoriety, violating their friendship, treating Obama's gesture as a stepping stone to slap the faces of the powerful and privileged who for so long wouldn't give him their attention, _then_ Obama said that he, sadly, had to distance himself from his friend.

Re: Caucus states ... one of the amazing things that Barack Obama has brought to this campaign is a sense of active participation, not only in the political process, but, come next January, an eagerness to work together toward progressive ideals. Change in the government isn't going to happen because you elect one sole person, or even a whole Democratic Congress and Democratic President. Real change -- in education, health care, the environment, equal pay, civil rights, everything -- isn't going to happen until ordinary people dig in and work for it. Landmark laws are not going to be passed because of a few people on Capitol Hill having great ideas but because millions of people are working changing the face of our society so that these new ideals will just plain make sense to ordinary people. In my relatively short lifetime, the presidency has because more and more a consolidation of power for a top-down rule (to Bush, we're just cogs that keep the machine humming, and he's the only one at the wheel). Clinton, as tenacious as her support is, seems to me to continue to the pattern of wanting the presidency for the power of it, to enact change -- whereas for Obama he wants each of us to be a part of it, to lead and inspire us to demand the changes, to not simply create legislation but to create movements with power that will become enshrined in legislation. I think one reason Clinton's health care plan failed is that she created it behind closed doors and then presented it to Congress, rather than publicly courting the American people, getting folks on board and making it so popular that Congress had to pass it rather than face the backlash of critical public. I think they are both good candidates that can take us where we need to go as a country legislatively (hoping there is a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate), but I think Obama will do more to urge the country to move toward a more progressive frame of mind through mobilized, energetic participants. All that to say that the caucus states represent a different kind of metric, and, to my way of thinking, a far more revealing one about the way a president will actually govern, than the primaries. (Especially the open primaries, where Republicans can cross over and mess with the numbers as they did with Limbaugh's Operation Chaos, but that's a different post.)

Clearly Obama did stand by Wright, giving him the benefit of the doubt at great political risk to himself. Had that happened to Clinton, Wright would have been under the bus in the blink of an eye and Clinton would have backed up and ran him over herself as many times as was needed.

Then Wright came out and made Obama's previous position untenable by basically offending a lot of people and totally failing to appreciate the responsibilities that come with having a national audience. Self-righteous was my impression, it was a lot more about Wright and not much about anyone else and definitely not about doing the Lord's work.

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Lestatdelc,

The part I disagree with is the way the argument is framed that "someone should drop out," but no one ever explains why it should be H. Based on the reasons you give - plus others that I could give - it's every bit as logical that B. should drop out.

It's a delegate race with agreed-upon rules. Obama will become the nominee when he attains the support of 2,025 delegates. At that point, Sen Clinton ought to step down. I estimate this to be next Wednesday. It is the honorable thing to do. Then, at the convention, FL and MI will be seated. That could happen even sooner.

Now, given the deep level of doubt you have expressed, let me phrase my response thus: it seems you are left with considering the words of both candidates, and the kinds of campaigns they have both run.

My deep concern is that Sen Clinton will take this to court. She and Bill are both entitled lawyers. It's a very real possibility.

People are looking to rally around someone because it's been a long, long time since a governing president sat in the oval office. The Clintons have not stopped campaigning since his first run as Gov of AK. People are not going to rally around the Clintons, not after their behavior, not after impeachment, not with half the country possessed of livid hate of the Clintons.

With Iraqgate opening up like a fissure, Sen Clinton will soon become a memory. She is getting zero oxygen, and there now one week left in this primary season.

There is no comparison -- not by a longshot -- to the piles of baggage Sen Clinton brings to the job. And then there's Bill's pile. Obama's carry-on cannot even be seen amid this heap. There is simply no comparison.

No wiggling out of the math now. Focus on how you are going to feel next Wednesday, and there is comfort there.

Like it or not she voted for the war. If she were to be the nominee it would be John Kerry all over again. Instant disqualification this year and every year until we get out of Iraq- having voted for the authorization to go into Iraq.

No one talks about this anymore, but it is Clinton's number one negative for this year's race.

She voted for the war and she has NEVER denounced her decision nor apologized for it.

The Republicans would dominate the war debate if she were the nominee. Any argument to pull out of Iraq would be countered with.... you voted for it. We saw how Kerry was laid low because of his vote for the war.

That said I understand Clinton's appeal. I voted for her- largely because of her detailed policy plans.

I am now solidly behind Obama 100%. He is terrific candidate as well. He also has detailed policies that line up with Clinton's very well. However, we don't hear much about them because he is focused on his message of change- which is smart. He wants everyone to know he is the change candidate, not politics as usual. He is trying a new style of campaigning, one not seen on the national stage by a major nominee. It reminds me very much of one of my favorite politicians- Russ Feingold.

Clinton lost me when she threw out the kitchen sink. I'm sick of the usual, old gotcha politics- it's all her campaign has been for the last 3 months plus. She should have kept talking up her policies, and dropped the gas tax holiday, and leveled with the voters. She should be doing that now, and make both campagins a national conversation about what needs to be done, instead of inciting a broken party. Then, then.... maybe she would have the delegates to back up her arguments (with or without FL and MI).

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I think the honorable thing would be (1) for O. to agree to the MI/FL vote totals, with the understanding that this will increase the threshhold from 2,025 to around 2,300 and also increase H's total by close to that same amount (2) for both candidates to work the supers during the summer (3) for each nominee to promise wholehearted support to the eventual ticket.

O. will still probably be the eventual nominee, as the supers - in mortal terror of appearing to "steal" the nomination away from him - swarm to him en masse. They will become deaf to H.'s rational, IMHO, arguments about swing states & electability etc and hand it to him on a platter.

There's a slight chance that, as more becomes known about O. during the next two months, the costs to the supers of abandoning him shrink. This is H.'s only chance, and it's slim and she shouldn't count on it. But it's there.

... My greatest frustration with the Obama-heads is that they confuse campaigning with governing. They're so FURIOUS!!! at the way H. has run her campaign that they don't actually listen to her speeches or pay attention to her record. It's, "We're so FURIOUS!!! at your campaign hypocrisies and missteps that we'd rather elect the smooth-talking, first-term IL senator that no one knows anything about with no record except that he keeps voting to fund a war that he claims to oppose ... "

Shhhh shhh it will all be over in a week. To claim "nobody knows" Obama after 16 months of the gauntlet is to demonstrate an inability to pay attention.

And your code-words "smooth-talking" do not go unnoticed.

Next Wednesday. Count on it. We have much bigger fish to fry than Clintonian ego.

So Footsie,

When, in the very likely case, that the superdelegates support Obama in such numbers that he attains the needed delegate number for the nomination (whether its 2025 or a higher number because of the seating of FL/MI), who will you vote for in the fall?

Will you do as Clinton has already asked and put your full support behind Obama?

Sigh.

Okay, you can tuck away your Clinton talking points. They're largely lost on this crowd. Most folks in here are keen on nuance, have done their homework and are unconvinced by snarky one liners that are better suited to insipid spam messages in an infinitesimal FW: loop.

Painting all Obama supporters, "the Obama-heads", as naive, hypocritical or whatever insult du jour, is to employ a Republican technique that requires mass ignorance to fuel its expansion. Just as any one Obama supporter cannot speak for all, you cannot lump them all together into a strawman that you can beat down for cathartic pleasure. This exercise, while apparently gratifying, is not a metaphor for actual events to occur - no matter how hard you wish. I'm sorry.

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Bill Clinton must know that he is ruining his legacy, right?

Wait 'til she takes it court....

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Any case in court they bring will be promptly thrown out.

They have less than no case.

Oh aye, but Gothic theater shall it remain.

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If a candidate governs as he/she campaigns, I am very grateful that Obama will be the nominee.

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PeninsulaMatt,

I'm not one of those who are counting on O. to "change the way we do politics in this country" and "bring a new tone to Washington" and "Yes We Can!" etc. etc. He's a politician, and he does things that politicians do: Throw people under the bus. You can't blame a cat for licking its butt.

On a deeper level, though, I do admit it caught my attention that the man (JW) whom he'd befriended for 20 years ... His close friend, counselor and religious pastor ... Became a liability as soon as his speeches were publicized.

Even worse was that everything I heard from JW - the YouTube sermons, the Natl. Press Club talk, the Bill Moyers interview - WAS TRUE!!! I couldn't find a sentence to quarel with. I'd have an ounce of respect for Barack if he had STOOD UP for JW instead of cutting off ties.

... And all this is different, IMHO, with a political gimmick by Hil', agreed to at a time when she thought she was invincible.

*yawn*

No "there" there.

You right a multi-paragragh post, but can't spell out his name? What's your malfunction, pal? You don't smell right.

Sigh. right=write...dear god, when will TPM get a preview or edit function?

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Marioth,

Reagan was the smoothest talker in the last 30 years. Bill C. was a close second, though I much preferred Bill to Ronnie. Pat Roberson is smooth as silk. So was Jerry Falwell. So what's your point?

... B. has been repeating the same dozen-or-so bromides for the past 16 months. Very little content. Hillary isn't exaggerating much when she says his campaign is based on "one speech he made as a state senator."

... PeninsulaMatt, it's your premise I disagree with. No one governs the way they campaign, ever.

My point is Sen Clinton is not qualified to be President. She suffers from dangerous denial born of decades of turning a blind eye to a filthy womanizer. She completely lost me at "obliteration." I will never vote for her.

Do you not see the damage she has done to herself? And to Bill? There will be no veep, no Sen majority leader post, no SCOTUS justice, and she is likley to face a serious challenge for re-election. It all could have been avoided.

No matter. Primary elections are one of democracies blessings. They give you permission to let it all go to make room for the future.

Let it go, footsie. That's my point.

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I will actively participate in assisting any challenger to her in her reelection bid with time and money. She has got to go into the dustbin of history along with mr. bill. AMFs.

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Peninsula',

"Bill Clinton must know that he is ruining his legacy, right?"

-- I'm sure Bill is willing to sacrifice a sort- or medium-term hit to his enormous prestige for his wife's candidacy. He's not old yet - early sixties, I guess, which gives him probably 20 more years of public service & rebuilding what has been lost. He's doing tons of things for the third world & entrepreneurship & green issues that will long outlive whatever hard feelings he's creating now. I'll go even farther and predict that this campaign will enhance his reputation in the long run, particularly among feminists, when they realize the sacrifices he made when he could have stayed at home writing books and giving videoconferences. ... Of course, a lot depends on who writes the history ...

Read up on his heart procedure. In addition to dementia, 20 years is being generous.

No one governs the way they campaign, ever.

So we're just supposed to believe you that a Clinton presidency wouldn't be characterized by the following?:

1) poor strategy (no plan B)
2) mismanagement of funds
3) incompetent advisers
4) divisive style

I still haven't seen your answer to my question above: Will you do as Clinton has already asked and put your full support behind Obama when he's the nominee?

The more I hear about caucuses, the better they sound in terms of being a citizenship building -- Democratic Party Building -- Democratic leadership building system. I'm thinking every state should have one, say a month prior to a primary vote date. It would be a hybrid with the potential for tremendous people power, great promise.

What is our biggest problem? Corporate money corrupting absolutely? Corrupt politicians? Lying propagandists on talk radio, certain websites and faux news? Mainstream (aka corporate) media?

Well, yes and no. Yes, they're problems, but they're also symptoms of what happens when we the people in a democratic republic sit on our thumbs and let big money and big politics run our government. We the people need to get active and stay active -- and not just enough to get to the polls every two or four years.

Caucuses sound to me like a huge way to facilitate that change. Not everybody has to go but all are invited. People talk to people, decide on issues and decide on answers. Real natural leaders surface in the process, gain experience, and are recognized by the people -- they will be the folks that people listen to, gravitate to, work for. And all these folks are the core of the grass roots that networks with the less active community, gets them active, and gets them to the polls for elections or writing letters, calling politicians after elections.

Clinton -- both heads -- is FOS. We need to build a new primary system that embraces the best of caucus and primary votes -- and that disenfranchises elected and party officials from their super status. An active people working for the common good can trust themselves, don't need no supernanny delegates, should want no part of that sh*t.

First we gotta elect a president for change. Then WE got to make the change happen. Obama recognizes it comes from the bottom up. Do we? I mean really...do we? Not if we don't realize that means we got work to do, ongoing work...starting now.

And it doesn't end after the election. Or it's business as usual. The changes we need will NOT happen unless we get REAL dedicated REAL quick and start growing a network of citizens willing to act like it.

How much time each month would we all need to dedicate to public life (politics) to be the change we want to see? Maybe different amounts for different people. Each will need to decide what they can spare. Then we each need to commit to ourselves, our family and our community that we will follow through on that.

Think carefully. It's only worth the effort if we're up to the effort. This ain't no popular cause of the moment type action. This is citizenship and it takes dedicated adult citizens. But it's where the power we need to fulfill the real promise of a democratic republic is going to come from. Big money doesn't stand a chance against a united citizenry.

You can count on them continuing to do everything they can to divide and conquer us before we get anything substantial up and running. And then they will continue todo all they can to divide and reconquer us after it starts to hum. And then they will continue to do all they can thereafter to put us back "in our place".

So this change we claim to long for, we must understand, is not a quick fix, is not bound up in a good leader (but will create many more of them), is entirely and continuously up to us. Else it will all soon be for naught and big money and big power will have found better ways to keep we the people in "our place".

Am I making sense or am I off in progressive pipe dream la-la land?

Am I making sense or am I off in progressive pipe dream la-la land?

Though the hour be late, and cups deep, you make perfect sense! Indeed, the lesson of the Obama campaign is that the People must decide the shape of the change they need. The grass roots wave is not artificial, and is really not related to the Clintons.

That's what sticks in her craw, that ultimately, as she bawled in New Hampshire wile attacking her opponent, it will no longer be about her.

The entitled elitist core of the dem party has been broken wide open and exposed for what it is.

Footsie, Sen Obama is the only one with the legitimacy to pick up the pieces. This is why supers are moving toward him. That and the money, lordy-loo! A machine Sen Clinton cannot inherit.

Pluto Dog, very well-written and I agree with most of your points. I appreciate your interest in the future of caucuses. I am from MN, also a caucus state, voted in MN for the first time on Super Tuesday. I liked the caucus also, for the all the reasons you described. I, too, would like more states to have them, perhaps, in addition to a primary. I think having both here in MN would also make sense.

While I liked participating very much on Super Tuesday, it was also very chaotic given the large turnout. I also understand the arguments for the select times that you can vote and how some can't make it in the times allowed. So I think, in all fairness, here in MN we should have both. I think all states should be prepared for massive turnout every year (hopefully, we'll keep it up as a party and as a Nation).

However, I also think it is very important for each state to decide on their own what is best for their state and their state's party. We all, and especially HRC, need to remember that we aren't voting ONLY for a presidential nominee on caucus or primary day. We are also voting for important state and local officials as well. We do not want the DNC to come in and tell states what they should do- the results could be very bad for some states, politically and financially.

That said, I think more states should consider holding dual caucuses and primaries. Anyone from TX (I forget: is there other states that hold both)care to weigh in? How do you like having both?

And when that ploy doesn't work, we can expect the Florida and Michigan decision by the Rules and ByLaws Committee to be appealed to the convention in August.

And when that doesn't work we can expect there Hillary and Bill to start the 2012 primary season while Obama is running for President.

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ami_in_deutschland,

I haven't decided yet, but probably Nader and maybe Cynthia McKinney. I've been thinking of writing in Gore or Kucinich. I'll never vote for McC, not even if Jesus Christ were his running mate (no offense intended, Christians).

I suppose a lot will depend on how tight the race is. If I vote for O. it'll be a strategic calculation and not at all "voting my conscience."

... One of my problems with O. is that he's making promises he can never, ever keep. Example: "kicking out the lobbyists," or however he phrases it. You can't kick them out and you can't tune them out!! Another example: O. wants to change the tone in Washington. No president can do that! What's he plan to do, unplug Fox? "Dissappear" Rush Limbaugh?

I'll never vote for McC

A vote for Nader and McKinney will be a vote for McCain.

So when we're still mired in the war in Iraq, caught up in another war with Iran, Roe vs. Wade has been overturned, and no national health care program exists, we know you'll be one of the ones to blame.

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... One of my problems with O. is that he's making promises he can never, ever keep. Example: "kicking out the lobbyists," or however he phrases it. You can't kick them out and you can't tune them out!! Another example: O. wants to change the tone in Washington. No president can do that! What's he plan to do, unplug Fox? "Dissappear" Rush Limbaugh?

And this leads you to vote for Nader? Pathetic.

You can't do that so don't even try!

Sounds rather defeatist to me. All I require is the will to move in that direction. It's ok if he can't get it done in 4 or 8 years, as long as he does his best and changes things at least a little bit.

I hear from so many people with this attitude. "Well you can't fix this or that to the level that's necessary so fuck it." It's lazy, stupid, and completely unhelpful. Take baby steps or move backwards. What's your choice? Make no mistake, allowing even an inch of sympathy for McCain, by voting for a 3rd party or failing to get out and make noise and get people involved in politics, is taking a step backwards.

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Hi again ami_in_deutschland,

I think I'd prefer someone with a divisive style. For 20 of the last 28 years, give-or-take, we've either had Repub congresses acting toward Repub presidents like interns, or Dem congresses (the current one, say) rolling over in the name of "bipartisanship." I'd like to see a political street fight over principles that matter to me. The one rap I have against Bill C. is that he rolled over on welfare reform in the name of "compromise," rather that fight (although the Rep congress had a veto-proof majority and Bill would have lost). "Bipartisanship" is vastly overrated. And if O. thinks his style and charisma will convert everyone to his agenda ... well, Goodnight Irene!!

If you remember, one of the main reason's Clinton's health plan failed was because of her divisive style. She started with most Democratic members of Congress behind the idea of national health care, but she had finally estranged so many of them that she lost their support, and the plan failed.

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PlutoTheDog,

The first change *I* would like to see is federal funding of elections. How far do you think O. would have gotten if he hadn't outspent H. by 3 to 1? This used to be a big issue for progressives ...

Yes, Obama is very lucky that he has many many more supporters than Clinton who are committed enough to donate. The real issue is limiting big money in campaigns and Federal funding is one possibility but it certainly isn't the only solution and might not be the best solution.

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And outraised her by at least 3:1. I like the trend to small private donations. Indeed, that is what allowed Obama to counterbalance Hillary's name recognition and, thus, overcome the status quo.

What we are witnessing is a revolution springing up from the grass roots. Whoever you favor to be the nominee, the ability of little people to influence this process is a huge positive.

yes. more grassroots please. we are seeing them really be built up this year, and they will continue to be bolstered by Obama's campaign. a large grassroots movement is the key to true change in washington.

one of the major reasons I have so enthusiastically embraced obama as my candidate is the large grassroots, 50 states plan he has. All this after voting for clinton in my state's caucus- where Obama's grassroots efforts were plan to see and Clinton's were non-existent.

i hope others will be able to see this too!

plan to see = plain to see. among other typos.

Why do you think they call Bill SLICK WILLIE!!!???

As a woman and voter in the 'caucus' state of Colorado... I resent the implication that our delegates have less value. It is up to the states, while following the DNC rules, to determine how they will elect their delegates for the nomination process. All that matters Mr. impeached, disbarred, ex-president that oversaw the deregulation of the banking industry...bringing us today's mortgage and credit crisis, and NAFTA, GATT, and the WTO causing the rapid release of manufacturing and jobs in this country...all that matters is that for the delegates will be representatives for all of the democrats in Colorado. We have a process. I happen to know that caucuses cost less money, and they are paid for by the party and not the state which is apparently why we have a caucus in Colorado. I like the caucus because I can go and physicall be present. I can see exactly what happens and there are so many witnesses to the vote that I feel it would be hard to tamper with the results.
But all that you need to know and the superdelegates need to know is that we elected our delegates in accordance with the rules our states.
Oh... I forgot, you don't understand rules... that's right. You don't know what 'is' means...
Well, I hope that the rules committee stand by its ruling and does not allow any delegates to be seated based on the 'tainted' primaries and then seats them based for the sake of party unity 50/50 because this isn't about Hillary or Barack, this is about the future of the DNC rules committee, the DNC, and their credibility. Can they be corrupted and used by an unruly candidate... we shall see...

One aspect of Bill Clinton's campaigning has been largely ignored.

As the last Democratic President, Bill Clinton remains the quasi figurehead of the Democratic Party, and yet, as far as I know, it's unprecedented for someone in his position to take such an active, partial role in the nomination process. Of course, it's a unique situation to have a spouse of a former President as a candidate, so total impartiality wouldn't be realistic, but I think it reasonable to expect someone in his position to remain substantially in the background and let his wife stand on her own two feet, as it were.

In stark contrast to such an expectation, Bill Clinton has been at least as active as the candidate herself, using his still substantial political capital to essentially double the amount of groundwork possible in his wife's campaign. This has not only resulted in Obama in effect being confronted by two strong opponents (which makes Obama's success all that more remarkable), but it also unfortunately has the potential to ultimately diminish the significance of his wife's success as the first, viable female candidate for the Presidency.

Would Hillary Clinton have done so well in the nomination without depending so much upon her husband? We'll never know. What's clear, however, is that whatever political capital they each had before this nomination process began has largely been exhausted.

A sad legacy for a once widely beloved, powerful couple...

IRT to lobbyists and federally funded elections -- both of those items are part of how TPTB keep their power. It will be up to us to take our role as the REAL power to change that.

They've got the money, we've got the people -- and all our votes. We are responsible if lobbyists have more influence than we the people do...and we are the only ones who are going to change it.

I'm sure there's politician in Obama. But there's also organizer in him and that ought to mean he knows he's going to have to help us organize ourselves and make our politicians listen to us, not the lobbyists.

When you think about it, even federal funding elections is not foolproof or all that important if we stand together as citizens. How many bureacracies have been set up to protect us from the abuse of power -- DOL, DEQ, DHS, FEC and many others. They can be co-opted, corrupted. Insiders love 'em. They are fig leafs for corruption. They are a weak, undependable substitute for people power.

Bill Clinton disgusts me. Plus, he's just pathetic.

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And the party will have to decide whether they believe the caucuses...are more important than the primaries.

"And I certainly hope they come to the same decision as Mark Penn did when he came up with our campaign strategy."

I'd say the reason for the differences in representation is because caucuses are usually in lower population states, and if it was based on popular vote, or the delegates were changed to match the popular vote exactly, no presidential candidates would bother with smaller states, they would get ignored, and the candidates would camp out in California, New York, and Illinois to run up the popular vote. The point is giving everyone a voice. Is it perfect? Hell no. But there are reasons, and I think for a PRIMARY this is ok. It isn't like this is deciding the president, it is deciding our candidate, so Hillary and Bill need to calm down, I think we are all sick of this sore loser shit.

If you want someone to blame, blame yourselves, you ran a shitty campaign, it wasn't the fault of caucuses.

Thanks for this insight about the rationale for caucus states. All the Clinton bluster had me wondering whether the DP should adopt an all primary contest in the future.

Actually caucuses turn out less percentage of voters than primaries do regardless of how large are small a state is. I vote at 7am because I have to commute to work and by the time I get home if I'm lucky it's 9pm. If we had a midafternoon caucus, I would have to take a day off to make it. Of course I would take the day off because I am a highly motivated voter, but there are many people who can't. But caucuses do favor younger populations, more affluent, and the most highly motivated hard core supporters to turn out in force. It disfavors the elderly who may not be able to travel, people in hourly wage/blue collar jobs and folks with other obligations for whom 2 hours to meet at a specific time to have your preference registered is not doable.

all very true. i won't disagree one iota.

however, i do not believe these make caucuses a bad thing in and of themselves. like i said upthread, i think a combo of both caucuses and primary could be a good thing for some states (like my state of MN- currently caucus only).

also, remember state's rights, and state's party rights, they know what's best for themselves. if there is enough outcry from the voters they will change the process. MN saw quite a bit of outcry from their caucus this year as it was very obviously chaotic given the large turn-out. something has to be done. their have been some discussions of a change at the Capitol. my boyfriend even went and testified. currently, it looks like the Repubs don't want to change so the Dems are staying put too. Unfortunately....

good points to bring up though!

[deep inhale - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10]
[deep exhale]
[deep inhale]

Billary. Everyone. Agreed. To. The. Rules. At. The. Start.

You. May. Not. Change. Them. In. The. Middle. Of. The. Process.

Was. That. Slow. And. Clear. Enough. For. You. This. Time?

Pig. Out.

Exhale please! Clinton is not arguing the rules should be changed. He is arguing the super delegates should take into consideration how Hillary will perform in a general eelction versus Barack Obama. Since the general election is done caucus style, he is arguing that results in primaries are more relevant to who is best positioned to win against McCain.

How is that trying to change the rules. Super delegates were created accroding to the rules to make independent assessments of who they think is the best candidate and vote their conscience. Hillary and Billare entitled to present their arguments that she is best positioned. You can disagree with their arguments, but going postal and saying the Clintons are trying to break the rules is not true.

On a separate note, I should hope Obama and his campaign would not want this lying deceitful rule breaking old dog out their and campaigning on Obama's behalf if he wins the general election. Especially since they have treated him so disrespectfully.

No. The problem isn't Bill making that argument to the superdelegates. The Clintons can say whatever they want to the supers, who can then decide whether the logic of the argument is brilliant or absurd.

What Bill's doing in this quote is publicly questioning the legitimacy of the nominating process, speaking to the voters of Puerto Rico in this particular case.

More people voted in the Washington state primary (760,000 votes - Obama won 51% Hillary won 46%) than caucus (31,000 votes overall - Obama won 68% Hillary won 31%). Washington's primary was meaningless - no delegates were awarded and all of the delegates were based on caucus results. So because of 30,000 voters, Obama won Washington's delegates. You call that more democratic?

If Bill Clinton really questioning the legitimacy and trying to change the rules he would be saying that some delegates should be awarded through the Washington primary. THAT'S NOT WHAT HE IS DOING.
He is merely asking super delegates and supers to take a fair and reasoned analysis of the entire election process - flaws and all. That's what supers are supposed to do when making their vote.

If you are really advocating that the Washington caucus results were more representative or democratic than the non-bonding primary, then you are way too far gone on the kool-aid.

I'm arguing exactly that the Washington caucus results were more representative and democratic than their pseudo-primary. Why? Because they were the only vote in that state that people participated in with the reasonable expectation that the votes would matter. The primary was a beauty contest, nothing more, and not much more meaningful than internet polling.

I don't disagree that the premise that the easier it becomes to vote and the more people participate, the more democratic it is. By that logic, Oregon is more representative than Kentucky which is more representative than Washington. But that's a question for the next round of elections.

Right now the caucus results are the best indication we have of the voters' choices in the states that used that system. To try to extrapolate different results from polls or educated guesses puts us in the realm of wishful thinking -- we invariably end up believing that our candidate would do better than their official results.

Internet polling does not have a mechanism for security to ensure that each person only gets to vote once. Sp I would assume the WA primary was far more representative than an internet poll.

Secondly, yes people were aware their votes would not be "counted" yet they still went out in force to make their voices heard. What does it say that 700K people took the time to go to the polls for a meaningless beauty process yet the actual delegates were awarded by the caucus vote where only 30K people were able to participate.

To put this in perspective 2333% more people voted in the meaningless Washington primary. That says a lot about hopw Caucuses are not representative of a whole state of voters and favors those who can take the time out to participate. No one is arguing delegates should eb taken away or the rules should be changed for this election, but it is a valid argument for super delegates and stae party officials who may want to in the future ensure that more people are able to participate in the nomination process.

Two words (thanks to Harold Meyerson yesterday):

Situational ethics.

Had Hillary won the caucuses, she and Bill would be hailing them as better than primaries.

Even they have to know, deep down, that there is no principle involved. To pretend otherwise is to treat the American people as morons. Which, in one key respect, makes them no better than George W. Bush.

Situational ethics applies on both sides. If this was South Carolina punished for moving up it's primary and lost all it's delegates, the Obama camaign wouldn't be saying don't count the votes. And please don't try to tell me Obama's too "principled" for situational ethics? I would just ask you to take a look at his changing position on public financing for the general election. Take a look at his ever changing committment to be willing to meet with dictators in the democratic debates, but now that he's heading into the general election he's dialing that rhetoric waaaaaaaaaaaaay back.

At least with Hillary I know she's a politican. She's going to say things that are blatantly untrue sometimes - like when she said she thought Obama could win the general election against McCain in that debate. I laughed for hours over that one, but I forgave her because that was the answer she had to give rather than the one she knew to be true. Even in the face of incontrovertible evidence that Obama uses situational ethics as well, the diehard Obama fans will refuse to acknowledge any criticism no matter how valid. Some would admire that. I find it frightening.

If this was South Carolina punished for moving up it's [sic] primary and lost all it's delegates, the Obama camaign wouldn't be saying don't count the votes.

Bullshit. If South Carolina had violated the rules and been sanctioned by the DNC, Obama wouldn't have campaigned there and wouldn't be trying to change the rules in the middle of the game. He has followed the rules every step of the way. Hillary endorsed the rules before the primaries started and then tried to change them after the fact when she started losing.

Hillary endorsed the rules which specifically allowed the states to peition to the DNC and the campaigns for either a revote or to have their delegates seated. She never said the states would be completely discounted from the process. Secondly Hillary NEVER violated the pledge to not campaign during the parimaries in those states. She only appeared in Florida AFTER voting had ended as a thank you to Florida voters. Obaam was the one who violated the 4 state pledge by running ads on a national network that were shown in Florida. Shady. If Hillary pulled some $hit like that, you'd be saying how conniving and unprincipled and do anything to win she is and she is breaking the rules, but Messiah Obama gets a pass? Puh-leeze. Agaian - situational ethics.

I think your both right!

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Nice rundown of GOP talking points on Obama (the ones that are fit for polite company, anyway.)

Nope - those are my valid criticisms of Obama as an HRC supporter and as someone who use to have a high regard for him and his promise at the beginning of the campaign. The Obama campaign started out with the GOP attacking points calling Hillary divisive and polarizing, suggesting she was hiding something in her tax returns, not to mention his GOP talking points against universal healthcare. Please don't talk to me about GOP talking points when your candidate and his campaign have done everything they could to demonize and slur the Clintons during this campaign.

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They are no better than the king. We would be looking at 4 more years with the clintons or mccain. I want the people to take back their government with obama, not let corporations, lobbyists and big money run the government, which is what we have had for decades now. We need major change in this country in the way things are done before it is too late. No more status quo.

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The caucus process allows for that independent to make a commitment to a party, register with that party and vote for the candidate they feel would best represent them. In fact a person can even change party for the caucus, they must however register as a Dem or Rep thereby acknowledging the selection process is a party process.

And the party will have to decide whether they believe the caucuses -- where you get about one delegate for 2000 votes -- are more important than the primaries where you get one for 12,000," Bill told the crowd.

Yes, Bill. The party will decide this and you will be gone from the campaign soon.

I think with the insane coverage the primaries are getting this season some don't seem to realize that this is a primary and not a general election, or at least don't seem to recognize the difference. Primaries are not "general elections for each party" afterall.

Does Clinton have any super-delegates from caucus states?

Not for much longer if they keep this shit up.

I took a quick glance over the list at DemConWatch and counted 20.

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Screw Bill Clinton. My state is a caucus state and he can do to me what Monica did to him.

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Caucasus: it's not just a Eurasian mountain range.

On behalf of the fine people of Iowa, Bill.....go Dick Cheney yourself.


p.s. - I was totally drinking a latte when i caucused for Obama.

Bill who?

Yeaaaaaahhhhhhhh Hillary....

GO HOME! PACK UP YOUR CRAP & PLEEEEEAAASEEEE GO HOME, HELL I CAN GET A S**T LOAD OF PEOPLE TO HELP

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