Big Pro-Hillary Independent Group Will Spend Up To $500,000 On Ad In Oregon
The American Leadership Project -- the big pro-Hillary 527 put together by major Hillary-backing unions and major donors -- is buying $300,000-$500,000 worth of TV time in Oregon for a new ad touting Hillary's record on the economy, I'm told.
Tellingly, the spot -- unlike past ALP-sponsored ads, which attacked Obama -- will be uniformly positive, with no mention at all of Obama or even any implicit contrast between his and Hillary's economic record. The ad will begin running today.
ALP's decision to go positive at this late date is significant. It suggests that ALP -- one of the top independent groups backing Hillary -- may recognize that the contest is all but decided and that there's no percentage in attacking Obama, something that could damage him in advance of the general election.
It also suggests that ALP's major labor and financial backers are now reluctant to alienate the party's all-but-certain nominee.
Contacted for comment, ALP spokesperson Jason Kinney confirmed the buy and its particulars.
We'll bring you the ad as soon as we have it.
Late Update: Watch the ad right here.
Is it really worth buying ad time in Oregon at this stage of the game? Everyone I know there has already mailed in their ballot.
Is there any survey data to show what % of the people haven't yet voted?
May 15, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Oregon Secretary of State's elections web page has a daily update (PDF) on the numbers of ballots it has received so far. Usually around this time about 25-30% have mailed in their ballots and been received by elections offices, and the bulk will be sent in this weekend.
However the perceptions are usually already set by this time because we have had our ballots in hand for almost two weeks. The only thing that would tend to change minds are the dead girl/live boy sort when it comes to candidates.
Ballot initiatives and county commissioner, mayoral races, bond levies and such are usually the only in-flux areas of the ballot that most people may not have filled out at this stage of the game.
May 15, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
The ballots went out May 2 - 8. There are no records or exit polling of returns just yet--which is prolly good because it cuts down on senseless speculation and other foolishness.
This ad buy sucks because this money should be used to help other Dems in the race. The presdential sweepstakes isn't the only game in town. There are downticket Dems who need that money to get into office to solidify a potentially veto-proof progressive majority. This money should be spent on ads for them, for voter registration and to build up grassroots organizations---not to plug holes in the doomed USS Clinton.
May 15, 2008 1:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually there are records of returns. As I point out up-thread, the SoS's office has daily numbers and cumulative totals day by day in a PDF on their website (it usually lags about 1-2 days from the current day as they get the numbers form the elections offices around the state from the previous evening and add them up and update the PDF.
May 15, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
The ballots went out May 2 - 8. There are no records or exit polling of returns just yet--which is prolly good because it cuts down on senseless speculation and other foolishness.
This ad buy sucks because this money should be used to help other Dems in the race. The presdential sweepstakes isn't the only game in town. There are downticket Dems who need that money to get into office to solidify a potentially veto-proof progressive majority. This money should be spent on ads for them, for voter registration and to build up grassroots organizations---not to plug holes in the doomed USS Clinton.
May 15, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Today is the last day that any Oregonian with any sense would mail their ballot. These people have been doing mail-in for years and are savvy. I canvassed in Portland last weekend and most folks had already mailed. Those who wish to save a stamp can go to a drop box at a library or any other designated place. But unlike here in Washington State, where ballots must merely be postmarked by election day, in Oregon they must be received. That is why anyone mailing is doing it today at the latest. What a waste of money on this ad. If they were going to do this ad, they should have started it May 2. How much relief can you send to China or Myanmmar for $500,000? What a waste.
May 15, 2008 3:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
God, this is pathetic.
May 15, 2008 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting contrast with the story below about Obama's success at discouraging contributions to outside groups.
May 15, 2008 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wish I had $500,000. And I'd tell you what I'd do with it - I wouldn't spend it on ad buys in Oregon. No, I'd burn it all in a pile in the street outside my house. At least that would make pretty flames and piss off my neighbor.
May 15, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know what I'd do with it Billy, even though my girlfriend would be none too pleased with me and it goes against everything I believe in now that I'm a responsible adult - I'd go to the local strip club, and "make it rain" on those ladies. I mean, if people are going to waste money and all. lol
May 15, 2008 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, that's not wasting money - those women work damned hard for that money, and a lot of them are either students or single moms. It would be money well spent. You are a true lover of humanity, Humanity!! ;)
May 15, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is true!
Good comment, Carol. Those are working women and they need support! With money - apparently they don't need any other kind.
;)
May 15, 2008 1:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!!! FOR HUMANITY!!!
May 15, 2008 2:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ooh Fun Game.
I would do the Coming to America thing and give it to a couple of homeless people (who happen to be former rich people who lost their fortune betting $1 they couldn't turn Eddie Murphy into a stock broker and Dan Ackroyd into a bum)
May 15, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, speaking of movie references - didn't Richard Pryor do this in Brewsters Millions?
Piss away a boat load of money with nothing to show for it by running for office?
May 15, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not going to lie. I'd totally keep it. I'd buy a summer house on the coast...
...and a couple of jet skis. Come on over, Mr. Edwards.
May 15, 2008 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, these are the same rocket surgeons who told her that Dem primaries were winner take all, right? Good grief.
May 15, 2008 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
For people that are supposedly smart with money, this seems like an awful waste. I mean, they can do math right?
May 15, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's pathetic, since the majority of Oregonians have already voted: their ballots have to arrive by Tuesday (not be postmarked by Tuesday). And in the last mail-in primary, only 13% voted at the provided drop-off boxes. That's why Obama was there last week, and why Bill was roaming the countryside at the same time.
May 15, 2008 1:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yup, my wife, daughter and I have already voted for Obama and mailed our ballots back in, but if it is an ad for Hillary it might make for great comedy.
Go ahead and waste half a million in Oregon, we can use the cash!
May 15, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
How stupid are these people??? MAIL IN BALLOTS!!! The election is already done.
Why don't they donate that money to the friggin DNC or some Asia relief group???
Simply amazing.
May 15, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh no, they have not drank the kool aid.
May 15, 2008 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly Gotalife - We need more 527s to complain enough to stop the whiners and their cool aid.
Btw - Fogu and Present are busy at Tae Bo during lunch - Matthew Weaver is at the track - looks like we're gonna be rollerblading on our own. Remember to bring your helmet - you don't want another concussion!
May 15, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Your tenacity is admirable!
May 15, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Indeed. I wouldn't (and don't) have the fortitude to keep reading the same comments from gotnolife copied and pasted from thread to thread.
May 15, 2008 2:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
But his grammar is atrocious.
May 15, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or passed remedial math.
May 15, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Gotalife would agree with me that this country (USA) must be destroyed to be saved - which is EXACTLY why we support HRC (Clinton!).
Gotalife - how about "fool aid" instead of "cool aid"? I think this is more clever.
May 15, 2008 2:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe they can pay back that poor kid in WV who sold his bike and video games to help donate to Hillary first.
May 15, 2008 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
O man. LOL!!!
no shit.
May 15, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the boy lived in Kentucky but I'm sure he'd like to have a new bike. As Jon Stewart said when he reported on this, Hillary immediately spent his bike money and more on confetti celebrating her big win in WV.
May 15, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, they're going to cease to exist shortly - maybe they have to spend all that money they had donated to them and thought that they had the best shot at narrowing the margin in Oregon. They are dumb, though - I'm sure most of the ballots have already come in by now being that the cutoff is May 20th...
May 15, 2008 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think there's a moral here.
The Clintons represent the politics of the past. This group represents the Clintons, ergo it also represents the politics of the past. And the name's appropriate, too. American Leadership Project.
And what has American Leadership been so darned good at in the past?
Throwing money up wild hogs' asses.
Oddly enough (or not), Hillary's got some Razorback in her.
Obama/Olbermann '08!
May 15, 2008 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, Penn didn't know the primaries all allocated delegates proportionately, so I guess it figures that other Hillary supporters would be too uninformed to know how elections work in Oregon (which by the way is how they should work everywhere IMHO).
May 15, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
On second thought, Bill was the Razorback. So it's probably true that Hillary hasn't had any Razorback in her lately.
Just clearin' the record, folks.
Obama/Olbermann '08
May 15, 2008 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow - I guess the economy isn't that bad for some people.
Funny side note - take a look at the Intrade numbers over there >
Hillary's chances (according to people who are putting down actual money on this) are closer to Al Gore - who's not a freakin candidate - than to Barack Obama.
May 15, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
What the hell?
If I was a member of this organization, I'd be pissed off - that's just pounding money down a rat hole and pounding sand down after it.
May 15, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
The organization only exists to support Clinton. Its whole existence is of dubious legality, because it exists only to support a single candidate and not push an issue. Although, really, I would be surprised if it couldn't return money to its donors, which are just other big organizations.
May 15, 2008 1:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sure there are a large number of union members whose dues are being pounded down this rat hole.
May 15, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Union dues are not used for PACs by law IIRC.
May 15, 2008 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's good for the economy, I reckon. Spend away, after all, that's how you can help defeat the evil doers, American Consumers. Spend!
OR they could help out any number of worthwhile causes, like New Orleans (remember that place?).
May 15, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not really. Its only good for Comcast if they actually put up this alleged ad, so maybe it might do some small good in Philadelphia where Comcast is headquartered, but does nothing but junk up the television here in Oregon.
May 15, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now we know!
It's Hillary's quid pro quo to Pennsylvania!
Obama/Olbermann '08!
May 15, 2008 2:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm glad they will spend money in support of Hillary. She needs a boost, especially after Obama's cutthroat decision yesterday to use Edwards as he did. You mention alienation. That is exactly the effect the Edwards endorsement did to Hillary supporters, coming on the heels of her victory in W. Virginia. It was of course a very strong political move on Obama's part, and I give him credit for that. But if my feelings are shared by even a small percentage of Hillary supporters, it was perhaps the most infuriating thing he could have done. I was completely prepared to support Obama, and had already come to the conclusion after N. Carolina that Obama would be the nominee. But yesterday was the ugliest thing I can imagine Obama doing to Hillary. It is good that the election is not being held soon, because I would not vote for him, and for me that is saying quite a lot.
May 15, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry, Otto - that's not cutthroat. It's brilliant politics, of the kind that got Bill Clinton into office in 1992. Face it, Obama has out-maneuvered Clinton at every turn and has run an absolutely brilliant, spot-on campaign. And I expect him to do the same in the generals. And I will say without equivocation that if Hillary had had a huge endorsement up her sleeve she would have used it in EXACTLY the same manner, to take the wind out of his sails. After all, this is the candidate of the 3AM phone call, the "shame on you" screeching, the gas tax holiday, the "hard working White Americans" statement; all designed to kneecap him before a primary. Get a grip - she has lost. This ad is not going to help her. Either get on board behind Obama or decide to vote for McCain in the fall. You really have no other choice here.
May 15, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fleeing away from SC in the shadows of the night without acknowledging her defeat or thanking her supporters- that's cut throat decision.
May 15, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, there was that, too. Boy, we probably could fill a book with all of the stuff she has pulled during this campaign - in fact, I'm sure somebody will write one after this is all over. Her legacy ain't gonna be pretty, that's for sure.
May 15, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't forget that they also brought a lawsuit to stop casino workers in Nevada from voting for Obama. I mean, a lawsuit. Fer cryin' out loud. To make it harder for people to vote. That's not cutthroat. That's chainsaw to the jugular stuff there.
May 15, 2008 2:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't blame Obama for bringing Edwards out in the way he did. It is John Edwards that I have a problem with. It was already rather obvious that Obama was well on his way to clinching the nomination. Surely Mr. Edwards has the wisdom to know that by endorsing Obama at this time would in no way help unify the party. It was a knife in the back, and it did not help to hear him say nice things of Hillary while he was slowly twisting it.
May 15, 2008 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Because former opponents endorsing the party's presumptive nominee is not unifying at all. He should not endorse or support our candidate and instead we should all still be backing other candidates from now until November, and give McCain a free shot... right?
May 15, 2008 2:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
All that I am saying is that could he not have waited 3 weeks and then made his call for unity? In all due respect, if John McCain can win with all that is wrong in this country today, will 3 weeks make a difference? I want to be fair, but you are not considering the 15 million or so people that have voted and put their effort in supporting Hillary.
May 15, 2008 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why?
By that logic every party name should not endorse anyone until after the primaries are concluded.
Yes. every day and week that McCain gets a pass in the media because it is fixated on the Clinton drama is a day and a week we are not out winning independent and swing voters hearts and minds.
The only quixotic path Clinton has to get the nomination is to stage a floor fight at the convention in August, and even then she will lose that fight. It sucks emotionally for those 15 million voters that they backed the wrong horse, but I have to admit that I your pleas rather disingenuous because it is just as likely that you would say the same thing in three weeks that you said just now, because nothing would have changed. Clinton still would have lost the nomination in three weeks just as she has lost any viable chance at the nomination now.
Face up to it. She is not going to be the nominee and Obama will be. SO anything good for Obama now is good for the party, the chances for November, and for ending the nightmare that is the Bush/GOP administration and policies beginning in January 2009.
Not to be harsh there, but the sooner the Clinton supporters accept the reality that Obama is going to the be the nominee, the sooner we can all move together to defeat McCain.
May 15, 2008 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am a novice at best here. The why wait is because in my opinion it further alienates Clinton supporters much more than it helps Obama. As I said, he has pretty much won. I would think keeping the party together is more important than winning independants in May.
I never onced mentioned Hillary winning the nomination. For you to suggest that you can read my mind is a little out there...but hey, you sounded good.
May 15, 2008 3:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fair enough.
May 15, 2008 4:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, he could go for the Nadar/Gravel/Paul (3 Stooges) ticket.
May 15, 2008 2:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
You mean the speech in which Edwards had copious and glowing remarks about Clinton, calling her caring, applauding her "steel," and doing nothing but praising her character? I just wanted to make sure that we were talking about the same thing.
Now, if you wanted to argue that it was a mistake on the part of the media to make the Edwards endorsement a bigger story, at least last night, then I would wholeheartedly agree.
May 15, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's gonna leave a nasty mark!
Obama/Olbermann '08!
May 15, 2008 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
doh!
May 15, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink