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Big Pro-Hillary Independent Group Will Spend Up To $500,000 On Ad In Oregon

The American Leadership Project -- the big pro-Hillary 527 put together by major Hillary-backing unions and major donors -- is buying $300,000-$500,000 worth of TV time in Oregon for a new ad touting Hillary's record on the economy, I'm told.

Tellingly, the spot -- unlike past ALP-sponsored ads, which attacked Obama -- will be uniformly positive, with no mention at all of Obama or even any implicit contrast between his and Hillary's economic record. The ad will begin running today.

ALP's decision to go positive at this late date is significant. It suggests that ALP -- one of the top independent groups backing Hillary -- may recognize that the contest is all but decided and that there's no percentage in attacking Obama, something that could damage him in advance of the general election.

It also suggests that ALP's major labor and financial backers are now reluctant to alienate the party's all-but-certain nominee.

Contacted for comment, ALP spokesperson Jason Kinney confirmed the buy and its particulars.

We'll bring you the ad as soon as we have it.

Late Update: Watch the ad right here.


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Is it really worth buying ad time in Oregon at this stage of the game? Everyone I know there has already mailed in their ballot.

Is there any survey data to show what % of the people haven't yet voted?

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The Oregon Secretary of State's elections web page has a daily update (PDF) on the numbers of ballots it has received so far. Usually around this time about 25-30% have mailed in their ballots and been received by elections offices, and the bulk will be sent in this weekend.

However the perceptions are usually already set by this time because we have had our ballots in hand for almost two weeks. The only thing that would tend to change minds are the dead girl/live boy sort when it comes to candidates.

Ballot initiatives and county commissioner, mayoral races, bond levies and such are usually the only in-flux areas of the ballot that most people may not have filled out at this stage of the game.

The ballots went out May 2 - 8. There are no records or exit polling of returns just yet--which is prolly good because it cuts down on senseless speculation and other foolishness.

This ad buy sucks because this money should be used to help other Dems in the race. The presdential sweepstakes isn't the only game in town. There are downticket Dems who need that money to get into office to solidify a potentially veto-proof progressive majority. This money should be spent on ads for them, for voter registration and to build up grassroots organizations---not to plug holes in the doomed USS Clinton.

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Actually there are records of returns. As I point out up-thread, the SoS's office has daily numbers and cumulative totals day by day in a PDF on their website (it usually lags about 1-2 days from the current day as they get the numbers form the elections offices around the state from the previous evening and add them up and update the PDF.

The ballots went out May 2 - 8. There are no records or exit polling of returns just yet--which is prolly good because it cuts down on senseless speculation and other foolishness.

This ad buy sucks because this money should be used to help other Dems in the race. The presdential sweepstakes isn't the only game in town. There are downticket Dems who need that money to get into office to solidify a potentially veto-proof progressive majority. This money should be spent on ads for them, for voter registration and to build up grassroots organizations---not to plug holes in the doomed USS Clinton.

Today is the last day that any Oregonian with any sense would mail their ballot. These people have been doing mail-in for years and are savvy. I canvassed in Portland last weekend and most folks had already mailed. Those who wish to save a stamp can go to a drop box at a library or any other designated place. But unlike here in Washington State, where ballots must merely be postmarked by election day, in Oregon they must be received. That is why anyone mailing is doing it today at the latest. What a waste of money on this ad. If they were going to do this ad, they should have started it May 2. How much relief can you send to China or Myanmmar for $500,000? What a waste.

God, this is pathetic.

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Interesting contrast with the story below about Obama's success at discouraging contributions to outside groups.

I wish I had $500,000. And I'd tell you what I'd do with it - I wouldn't spend it on ad buys in Oregon. No, I'd burn it all in a pile in the street outside my house. At least that would make pretty flames and piss off my neighbor.

You know what I'd do with it Billy, even though my girlfriend would be none too pleased with me and it goes against everything I believe in now that I'm a responsible adult - I'd go to the local strip club, and "make it rain" on those ladies. I mean, if people are going to waste money and all. lol

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Hey, that's not wasting money - those women work damned hard for that money, and a lot of them are either students or single moms. It would be money well spent. You are a true lover of humanity, Humanity!! ;)

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This is true!

Good comment, Carol. Those are working women and they need support! With money - apparently they don't need any other kind.

;)

THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!!! FOR HUMANITY!!!

Ooh Fun Game.

I would do the Coming to America thing and give it to a couple of homeless people (who happen to be former rich people who lost their fortune betting $1 they couldn't turn Eddie Murphy into a stock broker and Dan Ackroyd into a bum)

Actually, speaking of movie references - didn't Richard Pryor do this in Brewsters Millions?
Piss away a boat load of money with nothing to show for it by running for office?

I'm not going to lie. I'd totally keep it. I'd buy a summer house on the coast...


...and a couple of jet skis. Come on over, Mr. Edwards.

Yeah, these are the same rocket surgeons who told her that Dem primaries were winner take all, right? Good grief.

For people that are supposedly smart with money, this seems like an awful waste. I mean, they can do math right?

It's pathetic, since the majority of Oregonians have already voted: their ballots have to arrive by Tuesday (not be postmarked by Tuesday). And in the last mail-in primary, only 13% voted at the provided drop-off boxes. That's why Obama was there last week, and why Bill was roaming the countryside at the same time.

Yup, my wife, daughter and I have already voted for Obama and mailed our ballots back in, but if it is an ad for Hillary it might make for great comedy.

Go ahead and waste half a million in Oregon, we can use the cash!

How stupid are these people??? MAIL IN BALLOTS!!! The election is already done.
Why don't they donate that money to the friggin DNC or some Asia relief group???
Simply amazing.

Oh no, they have not drank the kool aid.

Exactly Gotalife - We need more 527s to complain enough to stop the whiners and their cool aid.

Btw - Fogu and Present are busy at Tae Bo during lunch - Matthew Weaver is at the track - looks like we're gonna be rollerblading on our own. Remember to bring your helmet - you don't want another concussion!

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Your tenacity is admirable!

Indeed. I wouldn't (and don't) have the fortitude to keep reading the same comments from gotnolife copied and pasted from thread to thread.

But his grammar is atrocious.

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Or passed remedial math.

I think Gotalife would agree with me that this country (USA) must be destroyed to be saved - which is EXACTLY why we support HRC (Clinton!).

Gotalife - how about "fool aid" instead of "cool aid"? I think this is more clever.

Maybe they can pay back that poor kid in WV who sold his bike and video games to help donate to Hillary first.

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O man. LOL!!!

no shit.

I think the boy lived in Kentucky but I'm sure he'd like to have a new bike. As Jon Stewart said when he reported on this, Hillary immediately spent his bike money and more on confetti celebrating her big win in WV.

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Well, they're going to cease to exist shortly - maybe they have to spend all that money they had donated to them and thought that they had the best shot at narrowing the margin in Oregon. They are dumb, though - I'm sure most of the ballots have already come in by now being that the cutoff is May 20th...

I think there's a moral here.

The Clintons represent the politics of the past. This group represents the Clintons, ergo it also represents the politics of the past. And the name's appropriate, too. American Leadership Project.

And what has American Leadership been so darned good at in the past?

Throwing money up wild hogs' asses.

Oddly enough (or not), Hillary's got some Razorback in her.

Obama/Olbermann '08!

Well, Penn didn't know the primaries all allocated delegates proportionately, so I guess it figures that other Hillary supporters would be too uninformed to know how elections work in Oregon (which by the way is how they should work everywhere IMHO).

On second thought, Bill was the Razorback. So it's probably true that Hillary hasn't had any Razorback in her lately.

Just clearin' the record, folks.

Obama/Olbermann '08

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Wow - I guess the economy isn't that bad for some people.

Funny side note - take a look at the Intrade numbers over there >

Hillary's chances (according to people who are putting down actual money on this) are closer to Al Gore - who's not a freakin candidate - than to Barack Obama.


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What the hell?


If I was a member of this organization, I'd be pissed off - that's just pounding money down a rat hole and pounding sand down after it.

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The organization only exists to support Clinton. Its whole existence is of dubious legality, because it exists only to support a single candidate and not push an issue. Although, really, I would be surprised if it couldn't return money to its donors, which are just other big organizations.

I'm sure there are a large number of union members whose dues are being pounded down this rat hole.

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Union dues are not used for PACs by law IIRC.

It's good for the economy, I reckon. Spend away, after all, that's how you can help defeat the evil doers, American Consumers. Spend!


OR they could help out any number of worthwhile causes, like New Orleans (remember that place?).

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Not really. Its only good for Comcast if they actually put up this alleged ad, so maybe it might do some small good in Philadelphia where Comcast is headquartered, but does nothing but junk up the television here in Oregon.

Now we know!

It's Hillary's quid pro quo to Pennsylvania!

Obama/Olbermann '08!

I'm glad they will spend money in support of Hillary. She needs a boost, especially after Obama's cutthroat decision yesterday to use Edwards as he did. You mention alienation. That is exactly the effect the Edwards endorsement did to Hillary supporters, coming on the heels of her victory in W. Virginia. It was of course a very strong political move on Obama's part, and I give him credit for that. But if my feelings are shared by even a small percentage of Hillary supporters, it was perhaps the most infuriating thing he could have done. I was completely prepared to support Obama, and had already come to the conclusion after N. Carolina that Obama would be the nominee. But yesterday was the ugliest thing I can imagine Obama doing to Hillary. It is good that the election is not being held soon, because I would not vote for him, and for me that is saying quite a lot.

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Sorry, Otto - that's not cutthroat. It's brilliant politics, of the kind that got Bill Clinton into office in 1992. Face it, Obama has out-maneuvered Clinton at every turn and has run an absolutely brilliant, spot-on campaign. And I expect him to do the same in the generals. And I will say without equivocation that if Hillary had had a huge endorsement up her sleeve she would have used it in EXACTLY the same manner, to take the wind out of his sails. After all, this is the candidate of the 3AM phone call, the "shame on you" screeching, the gas tax holiday, the "hard working White Americans" statement; all designed to kneecap him before a primary. Get a grip - she has lost. This ad is not going to help her. Either get on board behind Obama or decide to vote for McCain in the fall. You really have no other choice here.

Fleeing away from SC in the shadows of the night without acknowledging her defeat or thanking her supporters- that's cut throat decision.

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Yes, there was that, too. Boy, we probably could fill a book with all of the stuff she has pulled during this campaign - in fact, I'm sure somebody will write one after this is all over. Her legacy ain't gonna be pretty, that's for sure.

Don't forget that they also brought a lawsuit to stop casino workers in Nevada from voting for Obama. I mean, a lawsuit. Fer cryin' out loud. To make it harder for people to vote. That's not cutthroat. That's chainsaw to the jugular stuff there.

I don't blame Obama for bringing Edwards out in the way he did. It is John Edwards that I have a problem with. It was already rather obvious that Obama was well on his way to clinching the nomination. Surely Mr. Edwards has the wisdom to know that by endorsing Obama at this time would in no way help unify the party. It was a knife in the back, and it did not help to hear him say nice things of Hillary while he was slowly twisting it.

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Because former opponents endorsing the party's presumptive nominee is not unifying at all. He should not endorse or support our candidate and instead we should all still be backing other candidates from now until November, and give McCain a free shot... right?

All that I am saying is that could he not have waited 3 weeks and then made his call for unity? In all due respect, if John McCain can win with all that is wrong in this country today, will 3 weeks make a difference? I want to be fair, but you are not considering the 15 million or so people that have voted and put their effort in supporting Hillary.

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All that I am saying is that could he not have waited 3 weeks and then made his call for unity?

Why?

By that logic every party name should not endorse anyone until after the primaries are concluded.

In all due respect, if John McCain can win with all that is wrong in this country today, will 3 weeks make a difference?

Yes. every day and week that McCain gets a pass in the media because it is fixated on the Clinton drama is a day and a week we are not out winning independent and swing voters hearts and minds.

I want to be fair, but you are not considering the 15 million or so people that have voted and put their effort in supporting Hillary.

The only quixotic path Clinton has to get the nomination is to stage a floor fight at the convention in August, and even then she will lose that fight. It sucks emotionally for those 15 million voters that they backed the wrong horse, but I have to admit that I your pleas rather disingenuous because it is just as likely that you would say the same thing in three weeks that you said just now, because nothing would have changed. Clinton still would have lost the nomination in three weeks just as she has lost any viable chance at the nomination now.

Face up to it. She is not going to be the nominee and Obama will be. SO anything good for Obama now is good for the party, the chances for November, and for ending the nightmare that is the Bush/GOP administration and policies beginning in January 2009.

Not to be harsh there, but the sooner the Clinton supporters accept the reality that Obama is going to the be the nominee, the sooner we can all move together to defeat McCain.

I am a novice at best here. The why wait is because in my opinion it further alienates Clinton supporters much more than it helps Obama. As I said, he has pretty much won. I would think keeping the party together is more important than winning independants in May.

I never onced mentioned Hillary winning the nomination. For you to suggest that you can read my mind is a little out there...but hey, you sounded good.

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Fair enough.

Either get on board behind Obama or decide to vote for McCain in the fall. You really have no other choice here.

Well, he could go for the Nadar/Gravel/Paul (3 Stooges) ticket.

You mean the speech in which Edwards had copious and glowing remarks about Clinton, calling her caring, applauding her "steel," and doing nothing but praising her character? I just wanted to make sure that we were talking about the same thing.

Now, if you wanted to argue that it was a mistake on the part of the media to make the Edwards endorsement a bigger story, at least last night, then I would wholeheartedly agree.

That's gonna leave a nasty mark!

Obama/Olbermann '08!

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doh!

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Once again, a Hill-lamb is crying because of mean old Barack.

Isn't that what you keep saying you want? A fighter? Isn't that the excuse that has been trotted out after every tawdry Clinton campaign move? "We need someone tough enough to take on the republican smear machine..She toughening up Obama for the general, blah, blah, blah.."

It looks like not only can Obama take the heat, but he's got his shoulder pads on, too.....

He took the opportunity and "obliterated" her. I am betting even the Clintons looked on with grudging respect.

EXACTLY. Wasn't it Hillary who kept bleating, "If you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen"?? Sounds like it's getting a little hot in herrrre.

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Yeah, damn the Obama campaign for not clearing it with the Clinton campaign's communications and scheduling team and take away their news cycle. They should have waited until the Clinton's got back to them and let them know when would work best for the Clinton.

This is the ugliest thing you can imagine Obama doing to Hillary?

I guess hyperbole is the #1 problem facing America today.

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"I guess hyperbole is the #1 problem facing America today."

No, hyperbole is the all-time #1 problem facing the UNIVERSE!

;-)

Heck, it's the #1 problem in the world. No, wait, the solar system! No! It's the biggest problem in the Universe! The inevitable heat death of the Universe is nothing compared to this! Will someone please think of the children! Obama made a calculated move that knocked Hillary out of the headlines! Sob!

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GMTA

.

As of end of day Tuesday, 22% of distributed ballots had been received at election offices. Trend was running about 4% received per day, with 10-15% expected to come in on Election Day. Total turnout expected to be maybe 60% (for the '04 primary it was in the high 40s). The upshot of this is that by the time the ad goes up -- sometime on Friday? -- well over half of voters will have sealed and sent or delivered their ballots.

2008 Oregon Ballot Returns by Day

Sounds like someone is running for VeePee.

I was thinking the same thing, that the tagline on the spot might be "Hillary for VP."

Quick, someone check the Web site and see if hillaryclinton.com is now hillaryclintonforveep.com!

And, please, someone tell me there's not a snowflake's chance in the devil's oven of this happening ...

Obama/Olbermann '08!

I cant believe these folks are pissing 500 grand down the tubes. That Clinton kool-aid must be pretty dam tasty.

I don't care if they spend another half a million as long as they stay clear from the closing doors.

I've said it all along and I'll say it again.

Hillary could've well stayed away from Kitchen Sink and negative attcks and we would have the same exact outcomes-more or else- in TX, OH, PA, NC, IN, MS, WY and WI. She did disservice to herself and the party for following an ill-advised or rather Penn advised path.

What a loss of time, money and good will.

What a wast of money! Why not give it to the poor and underpriviledged or some other charitable cause.

Such a waste...

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It suggests that ALP is throwing good money after bad and is clueless about the Oregon electorate given the timing or the quixotic nature of thinking they can even begin to make it close for Clinton here in Oregon.

Agreed that it is a good sign that it is a uniformly positive ad, though too little too late on that front. This money would have been better spent as an issues ad attacking the GOP/Bush/Smith/McCain.

Greg said:

Tellingly, the spot -- unlike past ALP-sponsored ads, which attacked Obama -- will be uniformly positive, with no mention at all of Obama or even any implicit contrast between his and Hillary's economic record. The ad will begin running today.

Greg, 527's like ALP cannot by law take a position in support of a specific candidate and by the same token attack a specific candidate. The Obama campaign filed a complaint against this pro-Clinton ALP for just that, and this is one reason why they are not attacking Obama any more.

http://tinyurl.com/5e36hr

So they are not holding fire on Obama because they have suddenly become fair-minded but because by law they cannot. Please keep this in mind in future coverate of 527 related issues.

Thank you for your good work.

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Good point. As you point out, we shouldn't attribute some benevolent altruistic motives to the positive tone in the ad because they "see the light" and its all kumbaya on the Dem side, but rather they would be breaking the law again if otherwise.

Though many 527s toe the edge of that line a lot. There are some clearly anti-Gordon Smith ads running that are 527 "issue" ads which use the "issue" as a fig leaf for going directly at a candidate. Of course I am not too plussed about it since SMith is a bush enabling GOP asshole that hopefully will be shown the door and we elect Jeff Merkley as Oregon's newest junior Senator, but there it is.

Meanwhile, Biden reacts to Bush's "appeasement comments"...

"This is bullshit. This is malarkey. This is outrageous. Outrageous for the president of the United States to go to a foreign country, sit in the Knesset…and make this kind of ridiculous statement,” Biden said angrily in a brief interview just off the Senate floor.

“He’s the guy who’s weakened us. He’s the guy that’s increased the number of terrorists in the world. His policies have produced this vulnerability the United States has. His intelligence community pointed that out not me. The NIE has pointed that out and what are you talking about, is he going to fire Condi Rice? Condi Rice has talked about the need to sit down. So his first two appeasers are Rice and Gates. I hope he comes home and does something.”

I'd love to have lunch with Biden and Olbermann ...

Obama/Olbermann '08!

Once again it show the amazing incompetence of Hillary Clinton's campaign and its supporters. Haven't the vast majority of ballots already come in?

Glad they're going positive, but it's still a waste of money for every individual, organization and union PAC that contributed -- especially AFSCME's PAC.

If you consider that labor's #1 goal is passage of the Employee Free Choice Act -- and that this will require 60 votes in the Senate and a Democrat in the White House -- shouldn't all of every labor PAC's money be spent strategically on key House and Senate candidates and on the general election for president? Primary spending like this is money diverted from the real objective. (Kind of like invading Iraq when you're supposed to be going after al Qaeda.)

This is a good piece that touches on some of these issues as well:
www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/14/union-leaders-clash-over_n_101826.html

How a Party can support a candidate who is so woefully unelectable confounds me: Obama’s victories are from states that hold caucuses, one of the most undemocratic practices that I view as a remnant of machine politics; he is weak on issues of choice, LGBT rights, health care, social security, wages and the right to organize; his past in Chicago is one of quid pro quo and corruption; he has accomplished nothing in the Senate; his knowledge of foreign affairs is wanting; he can only deliver speeches from a teleprompter; he speech yesterday contained two factual errors; he is sexist; he has exploited this nation’s history of race for electoral gain, even though he has no relation to that history; his wife is a race baiter and a negative campaigner; his only accomplishment while serving as a Senator is attaching his name to a book I believe a group of ghostwriters composed; he has lied repeatedly on the campaign trail; he is a puppet who will be controlled by certain factions of the Democratic party;

.

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How can they?

Because the litany of "reasons" you think they shouldn't, are bullshit.*

* The latest in the series 'Simple Answers to Simple Questions'.

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LOL. What does it say about Hillary Clinton that she got beat by someone who is so "unelectable"?

Ha! I'm an Oregonian - We vote by mail - Most of us have already mailed our ballots!

Wasted money - This outfit would've done better replacing that kid's bike and video games.

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Otto - don't look now, but so far the "unelectable" Obama has beaten your more "electable" candidate in the first round of "elections."


Don't go away all bitter - just go away.

It's pretty adorable that the same 5 people are continually screaming about Hillary's better electability when she couldn't even beat this elitist empty suit Muslim.

What a waste. When you think about the good causes this money could go to, it's sickening.

Not that it's anything new, but as usual, Hillary is sucking all of the oxygen out of the Democratic Party and the progressive cause.


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Not that it's anything new, but as usual, Hillary is sucking all of the oxygen out of the Democratic Party and the progressive cause.

Word up.

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The clinton campaign has put out a press release stating that the rules of the space/time continium are biased against democracy. Howard Wolfson said, "The future voters of Oregon can not be disenfranchised by the ridiculous rules of the DNC that count votes cast before our new ad campaign. It is clearly undemocratic for the people of Oregon to have voted in the past when we didn't realize that all of the votes would not be cast this coming Tuesday. We will fight the laws of physics all the way to the convention."

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LOL

Touché.

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Noboy tell the Hillfans, but Obama has won 19 non-caucus contests to Hillary's 16. But don't tell them because then we'll have to hear about how only Hillary can win with a 50+1 strategy.

Then we'll have to tell them how the 50+1 strategy never works for the Democrats and how the Clinton on this ticket won't have the luck of having Ross Perot on the ballot this time around. It has been over 30 years since we've had a Democrat win a presidential election with an actual majority of the popular vote. A plurality won't be enough to actually get our agenda done - Senator Failed Health Care initiative and "don't ask don't tell" should know that by now.

Has Operation Turn Down been reported here yet?

http://wilknetwork.com/Why-I-m-Turning-Down-Obama/2202399

"Looks like Steve Corbett PA Radio host at wilk network has caught the attention
of The DNC, yesterday Corbett launch Operation Turn Down campaign to let the DNC
know that true Democrats where not voting for Obama. The phones lines lit up;
calls came from state after state, blogger from a site called Confluence and
others posted Corbett Operation Turn Down and the blog sphere was at a buzz.
State after state voters calling and pledging they would under no circumstance
vote for Obama this has to be the DNC nightmare. Operation Turn down continues
Friday at 3 p.m. EST tune in folks this is going to be huge.
http://wilknetwork.com

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