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Big Pro-Hillary Group Looking To Make Ad Buy In Oregon
As I've noted here before, one key thing to watch is this: Will the big pro-Hillary third party groups continue putting money into ads on her behalf in remaining states, or will they quietly abandon such efforts?
Well, one of her top third-party supporters -- the American Leadership Project, the group put together by Hillary-backing unions and major financial supporters -- is still looking to spend money on TV for her.
I'm told reliably that ALP is looking to make an ad buy in Oregon. The size of the buy is as yet uncertain, but for now, this group is still prepared to shell out money on her behalf. I'll bring you details when I have them.
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Well, if I were a member of any of those unions, I think I'd object to money being spent on a losing proposition.
May 14, 2008 3:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Man, if I were a member of a union contributing to this ad buy I'd be pissed.
They might as well be buying ads for New Coke.
May 14, 2008 3:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, Bill Cosby is the voice of today's youth culture! It's a can't miss proposition!
May 14, 2008 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd forgotten all about that.
Check it, I love youtube.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o4YvmN1hvNA
May 14, 2008 3:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Talk about money down a rat-hole!
May 14, 2008 3:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Speaking of wasting other people's money...
Did anyone notice in her speech last night Hillary Clinton spoke of an 11 year old boy who sold his bicylce and video games in order to send her money.
Hillary Clinton has 100+ MILLION dollars in the bank, yet she's making 11 year old boys sell their bikes to send her money...
May 14, 2008 3:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I didn't get to hear the speech, but that is disgusting (and probably not true, this is Hillary we are talking about).
I did catch McAuliff saying it was going to be the best speech in the history of the universe.
So was it really the bestest speechifying ever?
May 14, 2008 3:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
)))))))))))))))-crickets-((((((((((((((((((
May 14, 2008 3:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I thought it was one of the best speeches Clinton has ever given.
Bestest evah?
No.
Not bad, though.
May 14, 2008 3:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Seriously. I would have told him to keep his money -- all it would do is help to pay off the debt of a losing campaign. He should keep riding a bike -- it's better for the environment than driving.
May 14, 2008 3:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
money, i might add, that will be used to pay back the money she loaned her own campaign.
there's something wrong about the whole situation when a millionaire a hundred times over is taking money from people who dont have it jsut to pad their accountsand recoup what they knowingly invested into a losing venture.
May 14, 2008 3:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did anyone notice the black guy standing behind her? He kept moving side-to-sie so that your eyes went to him. He kept it up so long that I was struck by the fact that no one else in the shot was moving at all. Then I thought -- "Oh, yeah! He is a plant! They find one black guy in West Virginia -- or they brought him in -- and put him behind her; tell him to move around alot so he'll get noticed. And VOILA! Hillary has a black demographic!"
I am just positive it was intentional; there was no other black person within camera-shot of the whole event. In fact, he might have been photo-shopped in!
May 14, 2008 5:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Considering the ALP was formed specifically to promote Hillary Clinton, though, is it really surprising they're continuing to promote Hillary Clinton? I mean, what else would they do?
It seems like possibly the metric to actually watch is whether Clinton is still receiving outside help from anybody except the ALP, or the degree to which / from who the ALP is continuing to receive money (are they?)
May 14, 2008 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Greg, you could also look at it as an in-kind contribution (legal, of course). By buying ad-time in lieu of Hillary 08 doing it, this effectively allows her to pocket her meager contributions and use them towards debt repayment. I think a better metric than third party ads is how much airtime is being bought by her own campaign.
In fact, I think the third party groups will be the last to go, not the canary in the coal mine.
May 14, 2008 3:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
These people have about as much financial sense as the Hillary campaign.
Wouldn't this money be better spent against John McCain in a general election? Oh, yeah, I forgot, that doesn't matter, because despite their protestations to the contrary, the ALR is just a Hillary PAC who could give a shit about real people.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/American_Leadership_Project.html
May 14, 2008 3:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is just a pro Hillary 527, no? Are there any real unions associated with it?
May 14, 2008 3:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
And I meant "ALP", not "ALR". Sorry.
May 14, 2008 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Looking for an ad buy? Oregon is vote-by-mail, and it's been so for a few years now. I'm sure a very high percentage of votes have already been cast.
In other words, low bang-for-the-buck ratio at this point. If they weren't professionals, you'd almost think they didn't know what they were doing.
May 14, 2008 3:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Perhaps they'll provide instructions for changing one's mail-in vote: "Did you know a sledgehammer can easily punch a hole in the average federal mailbox? It's true!"
May 14, 2008 3:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly what I was thinking. I was reading something like 30% or better will have voted by the end of the day and that only ~13% of votes will come in on Tuesday. So these ads are going to have to go up today to make any non-trivial difference in the outcome of the race.
May 14, 2008 3:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, I voted before North Carolina and Indiana. Odds are my ballot has been at the clerk's office for over a week now. Spending money on this race at this point is a waste, as the state has already received, what, nearly 400k completed ballots, at a pace of 80k a day. Professionals indeed.
May 14, 2008 3:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
What part of pouring money down a rathole of a lost cause is difficult to understand?
May 14, 2008 3:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, it's true that this will be an ad buy with not a lot of bang for the buck. As of Monday, 13% of ballots had already been received, but each day this percentage of returns goes way up. In fact, it's recommended that ballots be mailed by Friday at the latest. Then there are the final group of us who simply like to slot our ballots into the collection box on the last day: May 20th. That's my ritual because I like the physicality of it. Also, each time I vote this way I give thanks for the sheer simplicity of the voting process here. More states should try this!
At this stage of the game here in Oregon, I don't think a third party endorsement or ad has much weight. Visits by the candidates create excitement though.
May 14, 2008 4:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Greg:
Off Topic, but do you have any sources with John Edwards? Halperin is teasing an endorsement....
May 14, 2008 3:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Loudon,
Just got an email alert from the NYT saying the same, quoting an Obama spokeswoman. Also (just this very second) got one from HuffPo.
May 14, 2008 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
why is anyone still advertising in oregon? don't they have a mail-in primary?? aren't most of the ballots in by now?
someone correct me if i'm wrong on this...
May 14, 2008 3:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know it's mail-in but I don't know when the ballots went out.
May 14, 2008 3:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
May 2.
May 14, 2008 3:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
From the Oregon secretary of state website:
(emphasis added)
So people have had ballots for a week or more, and if they're mailing it in, many have likely already done so. There are dropoff sites, so later voters don't have to rely on the postal service getting the ballot there on time. But this does suggest that any late ad buys or campaigning in Oregon is less effective, since many voters have already literally voted. I wonder how this affects "exit polling"...
Since this is an outside group, I can't blame Hillary's campaign staff for the poor scheduling of any ad buy, if it actually happens. I also don't know lead times for getting on the air, but we're less than a week out, so I don't imagine ads would run before Friday at the earliest now anyhow.
Greg, please follow up on this next week to say whether the ad buy actually takes place or not. At this late time, it seems like it's hardly worth it, but whether it happens or not is a data point as to the credibility of the "reliable" (but presumably anonymous) source.
May 14, 2008 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Most people mail them in by Saturday to make sure they get there by Tues. The number of people who drop them off on election day is less than 10%.
I wonder if they are using the same strategist that Hillary had in Feb...
May 14, 2008 5:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
22% of the distributed ballots had been received at election offices by end of day yesterday (Tuesday).
2008 Oregon Ballot Returns
For comparison:
Oregon Ballot Return History
May 14, 2008 6:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting. I'll also be anxious to see if she got a money boost from yesterday's win.
May 14, 2008 3:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
God, I hope she did. The sooner she recoups her debt the sooner she can gracefully exit the race.
May 14, 2008 3:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
My comment was made obsolete by One More Dave - before I ever posted it. I'm braindead today.
So I wonder why they are spending this money? Obama is heavily favored there to start with.
May 14, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
My first post, after months of lurking, and I make HusseinTenaX's post obsolete, before she even writes it. What can I say to that?
I voted for Obama.
May 15, 2008 6:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just for fun.....let's have another Chicago trial when this one is over.....insiders have said one is coming.....like a Gov. and an ex-Ill. State Sen. Hmmmm I wonder who that is?????. Something about the Health Facilities Planning Board. Republicans have been waiting to drop this bomb for awhile. Well I guess we will have to see. I wonder if the teflon still stays on. Maybe the crack reporters here can get any info on this one. Have a nice day.
May 14, 2008 3:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
What could they do with this money if not burn it off now? Spend it on pro-Labor, pro-Democratic causes?
Nah, let's blow it for Hillary's dead end campaign in a state that has already voted.
May 14, 2008 3:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd rather (and have indeed) spent my $$$ to get Hillary elected despite the long odds because I want a democrat in the White House in November and it's not just that I've lost respect for Obama - I don't believe he can win. Until he gets the nomination, I'm riding with Hillary and that's where my political contributions will be going.
One place my $$$ surely won't be going is to the DCCC because of the thumbs on the scale for Obama from Pelosi throughout this entire race. I'll contribute directly to my local congressional race against Vito Fossella. The DCCC has got plenty of funding and if they didn't they would have made some effort to be fair to both candidates throughout this election process.
The D48+TerritoriesC can also not expect any $$$ from me unless they include MI & FL in the nomination process in a fair way. When they decide to become the DNC again, then please give me a call.
May 14, 2008 4:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I believe the rules were in place at the time that Hillary was the inevitable winner. If anything they are trying desperately to UNDO their own rules so that they can seat the delegates that voted for Hillary in Florida. They are also trying to work something out in Michigan that will not set a precedent for states to ignore rules in future elections.
How has the DNC been unfairly favorable to Obama? I'm talking about the institution, not particular people; Pelosi likes him better, that's true. Is she supposed to pretend to not have an opinion, like Supreme Court nominees are supposed to pretend never to have even thought about abortion?
Is there something wrong with not being a hypocrit, and saying what you think? I think she's actually been pretty tame in the things she has said. Especially if you compare her statements to the inflammatory ones that Hillary has made that put McCain over Obama in her book, for example.
May 14, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
If the DNC had any balls they would have pushed for a revote in both states when it became clear this was a contest. Hillary was for it - Obama's campaign did everything they could to prevent it from happening because they wanted to protect the delegate lead at all cost so he could claim victory - including at the cost of democratic principles that everyone gets to vote. To hear people like Donna Brazile and the Obama campaign trying to defend taking away the rights of two states to weigh in on an election that is so close is contrary to everything I believe as a Democrat. If I lived in FL or MI, I would tell Ibama and the DNC if my vote doesn't count in the primary, it shouldn't count in November either.
I was a self-avowed Deaniac in 2004 but he would have made an awful president. he can't even run the democratic party - how could he run a country (although you can't do worse than GWB). It was stupid to strip MI & FL of their votes. And I don't see how you try to unify a party when one side has been treated so unfairly.
May 14, 2008 6:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
They're wasting their money.It's over for Mrs. Clinton. Right now it seems like she's auditioning for VP. Ugh, I hope Obama is not considering her.
May 14, 2008 4:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Isn't Oregon's primary entirely vote by mail? I mean most of the voting has already taken place. Seems like this would be a little too late............
May 14, 2008 11:01 PM | Reply | Permalink