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AP: Obama Has Effectively Caught Up With Hillary In Super-Dels
Check out this little nugget buried in an Associated Press story about the parade of super-dels into the Obama camp today:
The developments left the former first lady with 271.5 superdelegates, to 271 for Obama. Little more than four months ago, on the eve of the primary season, she held a lead of 169-63.
Hillary 271.5; Obama 271. Now, if Obama can round up the support of the other half of that half-delegate that Hillary has on him, he'll have tied her outright.
Seriously, by the AP's reckoning, Obama has basically pulled dead even now, another sign that the party is slowly swinging around behind him. This comes after ABC News concluded this morning that he'd pulled ahead.
Meanwhile, CNN's count puts Hillary ahead by four super-dels, and MSNBC's tally puts her up by 4.5.
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Comments (104)
Bottom line Hillary still ahead.
How dare you ask her to drop out?
May 9, 2008 6:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did you get my gift of 'NO'? No need to borrow.
;-)
May 9, 2008 6:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
thnx buddy....may require a few more in the next couple of weeks.
May 9, 2008 6:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
What's mine is yours.
May 9, 2008 6:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why is it that every news organization has different numbers? Is this harder to figure out than I think it is?
May 9, 2008 6:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think it largely depends on if they include supers from Florida and Michigan, who technically don't have a vote (yet).
May 9, 2008 6:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Each organization makes it's own calls to delegates, so some may have inside info that others don't. Then there are the "PelosiSupers" (those who've said they'll go with the majority of voters). Within this group there are variations - majority of all voters, or state's voters or district's voters? And so some of the news orgs may be counting these kinds of delegates who said what they would do, but still haven't actually come out and done it. Bottom line, we're about tied, give or take 4.
May 9, 2008 6:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't the Clinton and Obama campaigns have official internal SD counts? Are they posted somewhere publicly?
May 9, 2008 6:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
The campaigns will never reveal their "known" supers, only their "declareds", this is, after all, politics. Rumor is Obama is sitting on a number of "unreleased" endorsements to use as they see fit. That was part of the reason for the Clintons to try a "head count" before deciding how to proceed. IMHO, Clinton is toast and should be formulating the exit strategy, perhaps featuring the Wilson/Plames (not so subtle dig).
May 9, 2008 7:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Counting or not counting the "add-on" superdelegates would make a difference, too. And some superdelegates have made statements that sounded rather endorsement-like but that left them some wiggle room, so it's not always 100% clear whether someone is committed or just uncommitted-but-leaning-strongly.
May 9, 2008 7:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, if Hillary still can't figure out that she's lost you shouldn't be too hard on yourself.
May 9, 2008 7:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
NY Times late this afternoon:
"The Times’s tally shows Mr. Obama with 266 superdelegates against 263 for Mrs. Clinton, based on telephone polls conducted with CBS News as well as public endorsements. A separate count by The Associated Press shows Mr. Obama running even with Mrs. Clinton. And a measure by ABC News showed the Illinois senator ahead as of this morning."
So they also called Obama as the leader among the declared Supers!
May 9, 2008 8:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's down a "half-delegate" according to Democratic Convention Watch (269.5-269).
May 9, 2008 6:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
This sounds like great news for someone. But who?
May 9, 2008 6:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm waiting for it, too...
May 9, 2008 6:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR BOB BARR!!!!
May 9, 2008 6:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, of course this deadlock creates the perfect opportunity for our next President, Mike Gravel!
(click on that link if you haven't yet seen the video of the year.)
May 9, 2008 10:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Halperin is reporting a possible deal on The Page:
Clinton agrees to leave the race in return for help paying off her campaign debt, a key role at the convention, and a guarantee that she becomes the lead Senate sponsor of the health care reform bill under a President Obama.
She wants the healthcare legislation named after her. Can't say she's putting the screws to him.
May 9, 2008 6:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Answer to that:
Not just no, but...
May 9, 2008 6:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
FUCK NO!
May 9, 2008 7:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
An EXTREMELY low price for party unity and a realistic chance to win the White House.
The only caveats should be that the campaign debts don't get paid until AFTER she and Bill work their collective asses off getting Obama nominated.
Make the deal Obama. She'll get a convention role anyway (to deny her that would be petty).
Allowing her to propose the Healthcare reform bill allows her to repair any damage done during this campaign and is more than fair. Obviously caveats need to be in place that the law needs to be a compromise between his plan and her plan that can actually get passed.
Again, MAKE THE DEAL Obama. A united Democratic party with Hillary going after McCain instead of Obama is a priceless commodity.
May 9, 2008 6:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry - but by September when the general election is in full swing no one will be thinking about Hillary at all except a few desperate characters like Gonadlife and D-imbecilic. Everyone will be focusing on Obama and... (fill-in-the-blank-but-it-won't-be-Hillary).
Instead of spending the fall having Hillary explain why she said all those awful, un-take-backable, despicable things about Obama we'll be listening to real ideas about how to change things so that we can move beyond the shitstained diaperpail Bush and the Clintons have made of our country (sorry for the run-on senetence).
I want NONE of my donated money going to that lousy creep. She can hold her own goddamn fundraisers or she can take a financial bath on her "loans." I don't want anyone interfering with Obama's ability to govern as he chooses - and the Clintons would gladly set this country - or President Obama and his wife & children - on fire to have their way.
Sorry - no sale. The Clinton crowd can get over losing fair and square to a winner who ran a better campaign - PERIOD. The alternative is they will marginalize themselves out of the Democratic Party. Which frankly would be no sweat off my 50 year old white, working class balls.
After the way they've conducted themselves they're lucky if anyone in this party ever talks to them again. I can't believe I ever voted for these evil, selfish people.
May 9, 2008 8:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Which frankly would be no sweat off my 50 year old white, working class balls."
But are you a HARD-working white person? That's who we're now told is worthy of respect.
May 9, 2008 9:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I'm a 35 year old black female so...I don't have sweaty balls...as far as I know.
But, what you said.
May 10, 2008 12:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Works for me. Thank god she's not demanding the VP spot. She gets her debt paid off, a chance to redeem herself on the healthcare issue, and it keeps the damned DLC from keeping their foot stuck in the door, provided that Obama doesn't get stuck with a DLC running mate - or heaven forbid, select one on his own initiative. Because I do think the DLC is going to try to force one of their own onto the ticket. I just hope he doesn't cave to it.
May 9, 2008 7:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Everything but the debt thing and it's a deal.
May 9, 2008 7:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oddly, the debt part is the only part that Obama can actually personally deliver.
Ponder this: as a part of the deal he very well could pick up some donations from people who WANT to help Hillary but are maxed out on their donations. In the long run, it might make the Clinton supporters feel a bit of ownership in the campaign and get back more than he puts in.
I say pay off all debt except those debts owed to registered lobbyists (That would be Penn & Wolfson)
May 9, 2008 8:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, Obama can deliver all of it, but the optics of the debt would monkey-wrench his own credibility with the donors that have made him a juggernaut, large numbers of small-donors who can keep being tapped form now until the polls close in Nov.
He pisses off his grassroots donors by taking their money and giving it to Clinton and he needlessly cuts his nose off despite his face.
The Convention thing is a gimme. The presumptive nominee (this year Obama) and the traditionally work together with the DNC craft/script the convention. Only when you have a faction trying to monkey wrench it through committee fights and using the rules to take those fights onto the floor does it go to crap. If Obama wants it, the DNC will work it all out to give him what he asks for since it would be in a sense for the person who is the potential monkey-wrencher this year.
He can also easily work with putting his Health-Care plan into a Clinton named vehicle in the Senate, which is a a real win/win and how Clinton regroups and recovers a semblance of respect and legacy.
Others have already mentioned before, and I agree with the notion, she becomes the lioness in the Senate (ala the next Ted Kennedy). I can see Obama/Kennedy/Clinton being the vehicle for getting the big things through the Senate.
May 9, 2008 8:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
I thought she had taught us that his health-care plan was atrocious. Why would she want her hallowed name on it?
May 9, 2008 9:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Please....
Here's the deal, Hillary:
You can leave whenever the hell you're ready to leave and don't let the door hit you in the ass.
See ya!
Obama owes her nothing. Nada. Niente.
Nobody has to give her a thing.
Where the hell did this lady get this sense of entitlement?
You ran, you lost, goodbye!
May 9, 2008 7:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Carol - I understand your personal feelings, but the fact is that some concessions will probably need to be made, not because Hillary is "owed" anything but because the party has been pretty evenly split across the board between these two candidates and giving either one of them a boot to the ass isn't going to help the party or its chances in November. There's really no need to go out of the way to alienate anyone, especially now that she's lost. It's going to be hard enough to get all hands on deck without any of that.
That being said, after reconsidering it, I think I agree with Lestatdelc on the money. It was Hillary's decision to push forward against really thin odds and to loan her campaign the money to do it. And for the most part, all it did was give the Republicans a free ride for another couple of months. So she should figure out how to pay that off herself.
May 9, 2008 8:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
What concessions have to be made to Hillary? And to what purpose? To get her to concede her loss graciously? If her demands aren't met...what? Those who voted for her vote for McCain? I'm not buying that.
May 9, 2008 8:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Look, this is DLC vs the new party. The DLC has the potential to really throw a fly in the ointment if the Obama camp makes it clear right now that they're going to be shut out.
Don't kid yourself on this; if there's anything we've learned from the past 25 years of DLC control of the party, is that they'd rather lose elections than give up control of the party. Well, they're going to have to give up control of the party in terms of who the nominee is going to be this time...but there's no reason to goad them into working to lose yet another election. Which they would most definitely do, if they thought it would put them back in the driver's seat in 2012.
May 9, 2008 8:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well it hasn't been 25 years of DLC domination, but point taken. Make her work for Obama with the promise of retiring her debt after the election. $10 million won't be that big a deal as Hill's big donors get to donate another $2300 to her campaign through Obama, and as you mentioned, we get buy in.
She has won a lot of votes, and we need to be magnanimous in victory. Pettiness and vindictiveness buys you defeat. Hell, isn't that part of the reason why we ARE Obama supporters?
May 9, 2008 8:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't really believe that they will shoot themselves in the foot. Yes, this is about a showdown in the Democratic Party. And how this plays out in the next few months will be very interesting, indeed. And it is not all about Obama - we need to see how some of our DNC leaders will respond to this. And what I want to see is leadership - not caving to the DLC. This is supposed to be about change, right?
May 10, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Forgot to ask.. got a linky for that?
May 9, 2008 8:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://thepage.time.com/
http://thepage.time.com/outlines-of-possible-obama-clinton-deal/
Caveat: A couple of months ago, Halperin said there was a deal for FL/MI and it would be wrapped up in days.
May 9, 2008 8:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow. Less than vapor on where he getting his "outline" from.
May 9, 2008 8:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah. But, the purported deal doesn't sound too far off what Obama's camp has said in the last few days at least as far the big ones (money and vp). Plus I think Halperin is pretty connected.
It also could come straight from O's campaign -- trying to set the bar low so any eventual deal looks generous.
May 9, 2008 8:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agree it it not far off from what Obama can accept, but since there is ZERO indication (not even hints) where this is coming from it is meaningless vapor.
May 9, 2008 8:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the lesson.
May 9, 2008 8:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know tone is sometimes lost in the bloggies and all, but I was not poo-pooing you posting it and all, just that these sorts of things need a little bit of context of where it is coming from, who is floating it, etc. (even just hints) to assess it as anything more than Jake simply pulling it out of his ass in its entirety.
Hope you don't get the impression I am taking it out on you by my calling it vapor, etc.
May 9, 2008 9:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Note how she uses her leverage: All of it is exclusively about her own position and prerogative. That's what kind of Pres. she would -- heaven forfend -- have been.
May 9, 2008 9:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Na na na na, na na na na, hey hey-ey, goodbye
May 9, 2008 6:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Democratic Convention Watch is the only reliable source for this stuff, as they require confirmation from both the superdelegate and the campaign.
DCW has it at 269.5 (C) and 269 (O).
May 9, 2008 6:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
THIS
May 9, 2008 6:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
IS
May 9, 2008 6:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
EXCELLENT
May 9, 2008 6:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
NEWS
May 9, 2008 6:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
FOR
May 9, 2008 6:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
HILLARY!!!
May 9, 2008 6:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
EXCELLENT
May 9, 2008 6:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
NEWS
May 9, 2008 6:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
FOR
May 9, 2008 6:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
HILLARY!!!!
May 9, 2008 7:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Awesome! Nice to finally be part of a TIENFH wave. Feels good, feels good.
May 9, 2008 7:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dang, I missed it again. Maybe in 2012 or 2016 or 2020. Dang, how old would she be then?! Scary thought!!!
May 9, 2008 7:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
IS GREAT
May 9, 2008 6:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
fuckalaciously
May 9, 2008 6:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
That too.
May 9, 2008 7:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
YES, TRULY EXCELLENT NEWS . . .
May 9, 2008 6:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
NEWS
May 9, 2008 6:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
There!!!
Do you see it. Oh my it is beautiful. Yes, I think I just spotted me a....
TIPPING POINT!!!
May 9, 2008 6:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
FOR HILLARY !!!
May 9, 2008 6:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
We all know he already won and truly is already past her in terms of super delegate support, he has many people who support him but cant go public and another group of people who said they will follow the pledge delegate winner which he will clinch on the 20th. Then there is even more people who said they would drop their support that they already pledge to Clinton if she loses the popular vote and pledge delegate count.
Its over, its been over since WI IMO.
May 9, 2008 6:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also there are Edwards delegates who have so far gone pretty much into Obama's camp. So you can add even more delegates from there.
May 9, 2008 6:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
PREDICTION: Hillary will drop out after the May 13th primary.
At this point its getting embarrassing. This thing is closing faster than she expected. She didnt expect to be "turned on" so quickly.
May 9, 2008 6:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah. I think so too. She gets the big win in WV, then the super dels should flood to Obama so that he can have a great showing in OR, SD and MT. She goes out on a high note, and he goes out on a high note.
May 9, 2008 8:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Over, Done, History! On to the main event!
May 9, 2008 6:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes we have a country to save.
May 9, 2008 6:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
!!!HILLMENTUM™!!!!
May 9, 2008 6:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm *officially* an Idioticobot!
May 9, 2008 7:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
MSNBC just said Hillary picked up three more...anybody know who?
May 9, 2008 6:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cooties?
May 9, 2008 8:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I expect that now HRC will want to spend some downtime enjoying some of her favorite things and places:
White Mountains
White Castle
White Stripes
Whitewater (rafting, that is)
White Zombie
White Sands, NM
White Noise
White Lies
May 9, 2008 6:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
But not the White house!
May 9, 2008 8:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
You forgot White People :-O
May 9, 2008 9:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
So, a question for TPM Election Central: When do you plan to start including the general election polling trends graph among your sidebar charts?
May 9, 2008 6:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good question.
They have a pretty good one here:
http://www.mydd.com/
May 9, 2008 7:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
They should put the DCW widget in the sidebar
May 9, 2008 7:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you Joe Johnson. I really hope one more pops in today so Obama can be ahead for the weekend. If I can PC paraphrase Michelle Ob., I am proud to be an American today (maybe not the first time, but it's been a while.) Drip, drip, dribble, dribble torrent, deluge.
May 9, 2008 7:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's like watching one of those building implosions. Tuesday was the detonation... the pause, then the building starts tipping, slowly at first, then... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RkiwNxfB4GM
May 9, 2008 7:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm eating sushi right now---yum, dragon rolls from Banana Leaves.
May 9, 2008 7:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama grabs superdelegate lead
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10245.html
Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) on Friday afternoon seized the superdelegate lead from Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), giving him command of every aspect of his party’s presidential nomination race.
That constitutes a key milestone in the race and a shocking reversal of fortune for Clinton.
Obama once was behind by more than 100 superdelegates. But according to at least two counts, more superdelegates are now in his camp. Politico’s tally now shows him ahead of her by 270 superdelegates to 268.5, with 208.5 uncommitted. (Superdelegates from U.S. territories count as one-half.) ABC News shows him ahead by two.
Clinton’s longtime connections to the Democratic machinery had given her a longtime lead among the superdelegates, the party officials who have a vote in the nomination and apparently will prove decisive in this race.
Other news organizations have similar counts, with CBS News placing him behind by one and the Associated Press saying he is behind by one-half. NBC News estimates that Clinton is clinging to a slim lead of five superdelegates.
May 9, 2008 7:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just in time for the Sunday morning talk shows. Nicely done.
This shows he can manage the clock.
May 9, 2008 9:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
What would politics (or life for that matter) be, if not for sports metaphors?
May 9, 2008 11:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good question.
They have a pretty good one here:
http://www.mydd.com/
The point here, I think, is that Hillary is slightly ahead of McCain and Obama is slightly behind in the poll.
I just don't understand why a small lead by Hillary in a poll in May wouldn't cause a stampede of super delegates. They must be fools.
May 9, 2008 7:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Perhaps the source of the poll is better than mydd?
http://www.pollster.com/08-US-Pres-GE-MvO.php
May 9, 2008 8:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here is the point:
Congress
May 9 Hotline/DiageoApprove 18%, Disapprove 75%
Nice work Pelosi.
May 9, 2008 8:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Those numbers are only because they haven't be able to draw and quarter Bush. Those numbers are meaningless after November and we have a Democratic President-elect and gains in both chambers (which is where we are on track for).
May 9, 2008 8:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think posts like GL's above show that this is a Rove/Limbaugh troll -- NOT a Clinton supporter -- out to cause splitting in the Dem ranks, with the goal of throwing people McCain's way.
May 9, 2008 9:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
UMMMMMMM there are republicans in the congress as well. People are disgusted by gridlock.... much of which is caused by repubs.
May 9, 2008 8:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Superdelegates are the only reason that Hillary got to say she was ahead in the delegate race for so long. The reality is that Obama led in elected delegates from the first contest and has NEVER fallen behind Hillary.
May 9, 2008 8:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
True. The media's love for the horse race always played up the closeness of the candidates, when in reality it was never that close.
Let us move in GE mode, friends. Voter registration drives - it's never too early!
May 9, 2008 8:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
We're starting a big Obama-led voter-registration drive in Harlem tomorrow at noon!
Yahoo!
May 9, 2008 10:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly what has been going through my head for quite a long time as well. Which is the smack-down you use on the idiots who will scream bloody-murder that the SDs are now "throwing it to Obama" from Hillaryland.
She had double-digit SDs head-start in the race before a single vote was cast anywhere in the country.
So you use this to cram it right back down any throat stupid enough to push that nonsense.
May 9, 2008 8:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
The dems have disenfranchised two large States, running a radical liberal that has done nothing in the Senate and not running the stronger fighter candidate.
And you folks think he is actually going to win?
Wow, that kool aid is very strong.
No silly, they handing it to mcwar.
Maybe, the problems are too big and the dems don't want the blame.
They are spineless.
May 9, 2008 9:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
No they haven't.
This is not a general election. This is a primary where the party(s) decide how they choose their party nominee. The parties in Michigan and Florida fucked themselves over by breaking the national parties rules.
But nice try in attempting to further sow dissent and strife within the Democratic party.
May 9, 2008 9:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
"The dems have disenfranchised two large States, running a radical liberal that has done nothing in the Senate and not running the stronger fighter candidate.
And you folks think he is actually going to win?
Wow, that kool aid is very strong.
No silly, they handing it to mcwar.
Maybe, the problems are too big and the dems don't want the blame.
They are spineless."
Good try, but calling Obama a "radical liberal" is more revealing than you think.
The one lesson Obama's campaign proved is that money wins every time. He edged out Clinton in delegates because he edged her out in fundraising. That's all there is to it.
Spent his money better, too, I might add. Let me guess, though. I suppose he's a "tax and spend liberal", right?
McCain will defeat Obama if and only if he and the Republicans raise more money than the Democrats and their walking mint.
You'd better peel off a few big ones to support your candidate if you want those predictions of yours to come true, I'm afraid.
May 9, 2008 9:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Superdelegates, like pledged delegates, do not count, with, of course, one exception:
The only delegates whose votes count are those of the superautodelegates. The superautodelegates are superdelegates who happen to be candidates and superdelegates who happen to be the spouses of candidates.
I have an insurmountable lead, with double the number of actual votes that count that Senator Obama has.
May 9, 2008 9:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Barack can't win without the white superautodelegates.
May 9, 2008 9:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary who?
May 9, 2008 11:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Say "G'night," Hillary.
The party's over.
May 9, 2008 11:26 PM |