All Eyes On Mississippi House Race Tonight
Aside from today's West Virginia primary, there is another election going on that is being watched intensely by strategists from both parties: The special election for the House from Mississippi's First District, where the Democrat might just pull off a pickup in an area that shouldn't even be up for grabs.
The district, which voted 62%-37% for President Bush in 2004, was vacated when incumbent Republican Roger Wicker was appointed to the U.S. Senate. Then a curious thing happened three weeks ago, when Democratic nominee Travis Childers led Republican Greg Davis 49%-46% in the first round of voting, but just short of the 50% needed to avoid a runoff.
A Republican source explained that this has become something of a regional contest -- Davis is the mayor of a populous Memphis suburb, while Childers has commanded support in the district's rural areas: "This is all gonna come down to turnout. The geographic aspect of this campaign has made it even more competitive."
Both parties have given this race a lot of attention. FEC filings show that the DCCC has spent over $1.8 million on the race, while the NRCC -- which only had about $7 million on hand at the end of March -- has spent nearly $1.3 million.
Remember that the GOP has already lost two deep-red seats in special elections this year, one in Illinois and the other in Louisiana. It would be an understatement to say that a third loss would damage morale and future fundraising ability, if it looks like the cycle will be bad for Republicans all over the map.
The polls close at 8 p.m. ET.
They're both so hot. What a tough choice.
May 13, 2008 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah but one is "Red" hot with the other is a bright "Blue" flame, which we all know is the hottest ;)
May 13, 2008 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
its funny you mentioned that. you can tell which one is the republican by that awful caesar cut attempting to minimize the progressive loss of hair. he looks like so many of the young republicans that attended my university. you can almost see the inner self-loathing as well.
May 13, 2008 4:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
He looks inbred. Something ain't right in that fella's DNA.
Look at this picture. Same goofy expression, like he pooped his pants.
http://www.sourcewatch.org/images/d/db/Gregdavis.jpg
May 13, 2008 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Childers will probably get Oxford, which has a high concentration of faculty from the University of Mississippi...I think the spring semester ended last week, so they should still be there.
The areas surrounding Oxford? Always struck me as being pretty Republican, when I lived there.
May 13, 2008 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
"all eyes will be on Miss. House Race" is overstating it just a bit.
Insert "political junkies" between "all" and "eyes" and you might be on to something.
May 13, 2008 3:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or, in my case, "the triply irrelevant eyes of this political junkie...."
Yes, I do drink espresso based coffee beverages.
Three time loser.
May 13, 2008 4:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know it's important in gauging the "mood" of the country for the Fall, I was just bein' wise.
May 13, 2008 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll be watching, and laughing if the Dem (highly conservative I'm sure) pulls it off.
Largely, I'm not so concerned about November either. Not that there's no work to be done, battles to be fought etc, but I really think McCain will go down like Dole in 1996 and Dems will pick up even more seats in both houses.
May 13, 2008 3:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hate to be overconfident, but I feel the same way.
All the signs point to a Democratic win, and Obama is an amazing, once in a generation candidate.
Still, I'll be out canvassing voters, trying to keep Texas in play.
May 13, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS GREAT NEWS FOR HILLARY!!!
May 13, 2008 4:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wait, the Democratic candidate is leading in rural areas while the Republican candidate is leading in suburban (and it seemed to imply urban as well) areas? What?
Mississippi is more strange than I remember it.
May 13, 2008 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Southaven is a suburb of Memphis. It's grown, significantly, in the last 30 years as white folks fled Memphis.
The rural areas in Mississippi are going to be mixed, depending on the area. ALong the Delta, African-American. Tupelo, Oxford, Batesville, Pontotoc? Those are going to be more white.
May 13, 2008 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
In memphis we self segregate across the state line. There is no urban part of Southhaven (just south of whitehaven). It is a suburb of Memphis.
May 13, 2008 5:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
With these kinds of pick-ups, I don't hear any discussion about the Democratic majority pulling more toward the right. This won't be the Republicans who couldn't think or vote on their own, but a strengthening of the Blue-Dog block in the Demo party.
Unfortunately, the Democrats will do what we always do... think for ourselves, debate, disagree, and resolve to compromise. The Republicans will then tar us with the 'do-nothing' label, as if that's a bad thing following what they've done to the country.
May 13, 2008 5:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Would rather enlarge the blue-dog bloc in Congress and get their votes on committee assignments and some issues, than have those seats be GOP and get even less.
May 13, 2008 5:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also, one of the main purposes of this is to drain the Republicans' bank account.
Wasting $1.3 million here means allowing a potential pick-up elsewhere in the country to go blue, which means the grassroots can afford to keep knocking blue dogs off in the primaries.
May 13, 2008 7:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
With 19 per cent in, Dem. Childers is leading 55 to 45! Hang on brother! Make me smile!
May 13, 2008 9:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
And 33% with a nice 53-47! DO IT, CHILDERS!
May 13, 2008 9:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is crazy! He can't pull this off, can he? There are some Republicans shitting monster bricks at the moment!
May 13, 2008 9:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
41% reporting and the margin holds ...
May 13, 2008 9:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
GO, GO, GO!!!
May 13, 2008 9:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is it just a coincidence that you have the same avatar as the banner of this page?
http://willbardwell.blogspot.com/
Which is doing an EXCELLENT job of live-blogging this race.
May 13, 2008 9:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
46% in and Childers' lead INCREASES!!!
May 13, 2008 9:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
HE. COULD. GO. ALL. THE. WAY!!!
May 13, 2008 9:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Damn ... DeSoto county must have come in ... It's now only 2 points with 64% reporting ... Hang on Childers ...
May 13, 2008 9:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
That is a *great* blog and everybody should tune into it! Thanks for cluing us in, and no, I am not associated. On another continent, actually. Looking pretty good for Childers in a close one as I see! GO, GO, GO!!!
May 13, 2008 9:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Childers is going to win this.
May 13, 2008 9:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yup. Amazing. DeSoto county is almost all in and according to swingstateproject.com there are some Childers friendly counties to go - willard says his home county has yet to check in! It's going to be close, but it looks like he can do it.
Since this was a special election there wasn't a D or an R by the candidates names, but still - given how much money was dropped on this race, I find it hard to believe that most folks weren't somewhat aware of who was who. I am feeling SO good about our chances in November.
May 13, 2008 10:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
*willbardwell ... not willard. Doh!
May 13, 2008 10:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here is the key quote from the people who know:
"UPDATE (8:58 p.m.) -- Counties we still haven't heard from: Calhoun (Childers +15 in April), Clay (Childers +36 in April), Itawamba (Childers +23 in April), Pontotoc (Childers +8 in April), and Prentiss (Chidlers +a million in April). Bottom line: the night is tilting toward the Democrat in the most Republican-friendly congressional district in the nation." *Fantastic* coverage, by http://willbardwell.blogspot.com/
May 13, 2008 10:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good enough for me:
UPDATE (9:10 p.m.) -- DeSoto County has finished coming in, and Childers retains a lead of more than 1,000 votes. WillBardwell.com calls the race for Childers. Seriously.
May 13, 2008 10:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is absolutely unbelievable. Called it, yep.
May 13, 2008 10:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sweet mimosa - The AP just called it for Childers too:
UPDATE (9:14 p.m.) -- The Associated Press calls the race for Childers. Climb aboard yon bandwagon, you hacks!
I'm going to bed a happy man. Good night (or evening or morning depending upon your continent) Mare Nostrum.
May 13, 2008 10:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, Dan F! THIS WAS FUN!!! YOW!!!
May 13, 2008 10:20 PM | Reply | Permalink