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May 4, 2008 - May 10, 2008

Hillary Holds Private Conference Call With Her Super-Dels: "I Know This Is Not Easy"

Hillary held a private rally-the-troops conference call with her super-delegate supporters this afternoon, urging them to believe that "this race is not over," vowing to them she'd promote Dem unity after the primary, and conceding that she knows what they and the party are going through "is not easy."

Somewhat tantalizingly, Hillary also claimed that there were back-channel talks of some kind going on between the two campaigns, possibly about how to maintain Democratic unity after the primary. Asked by a super-delegate whether there were discussions going on between the two camps about what would happen after the voting concluded, she said:

"There's a lot of communication between both of the campaigns all the time. I don't know how specific it is, but we have very open lines of communication...I know that both Senator Obama and I are committed, and the campaigns are as well, to making sure that when this is resolved" we will do everything we can to "unify the party." She didn't elaborate further.

The call -- convened for super-dels committed to supporting her -- provided a glimpse into the campaign's behind-the-scenes efforts to prevent supporters from bolting even as her prospects grow bleaker by the day.

I was able to listen to the call in its entirety.

Hillary projected a surprisingly cheerful tone despite recent events, and if she is having doubts about what's going to happen, she didn't show it on the call. "Despite what some in the media are saying, this race is not over," she said.

Hillary top adviser Harold Ickes was on the call, too. Some noteworthy tidbits from the call:

* Ickes claimed that there was no discussion internally on the campaign of the possibility that she would angle for a veep slot. "There's no talk within the Hillary campaign about that," Ickes said in response to a questioner.

* Ickes came under questioning from a super-delegate who said he would have "a problem" if she didn't win the pledged del count or the popular vote, and declined to say what she would do. Indeed, he repeatedly maintained that she would still be ahead in the popular vote at the end of the contest, Florida and Michigan included, and predicted flatly that she would be behind by less than 100 delegates at the end of the voting.

* Hillary sought to persuade supporters to hold the line by vowing to them that she would do everything she could to make sure the party unified behind the eventual nominee. "I know this is not easy," Hillary said. She added: "We will close ranks and I know we will be totally unified going forward."

"I just want to underscore my gratitude," she concluded. "This is bigger than me...it's about standing firm [behind] the values we share."

McCain Airing New Ad On The Economy in Iowa

The McCain seems to be making a big play for Iowa, where polling has shown him trailing Barack Obama. They have premiered this new ad, in which McCain promises to look out for people on economic issues:

"The great goal is to get the American economy running at full strength again," McCain says, "creating the opportunities Americans expect and the jobs Americans need."


Rasmussen: Oregon GOP Senator Only Narrowly Ahead Of Two Dems

A new poll shows another Republican senator just slightly ahead of the opposition, another sign that the Senate GOP will have to seriously play on defense this year.

The new Rasmussen poll of Oregon has two-term Sen. Gordon Smith below 50% against state House Speaker Jeff Merkley and Democratic activist Steve Novick:

Smith (R) 45%, Merkley (D) 42% Smith (R) 47%, Novick (D) 41%

Smith is a relative GOP moderate who has turned against the Bush Administration on many Iraq-related votes. However, this remains a state that is likely to go Democratic in the Fall, so he'll need quite a few ticket-splitters to get across the finish line.

Obama, Clinton Each Get Another Super-Delegate

Two more super-delegates have endorsed late today, in addition to those we reported on this afternoon, with one new super-del for Barack Obama and one for Hillary Clinton.

Virginia DNC member Joe Johnson announced his support for Barack Obama, while Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D-TX) has endorsed Hillary.

The score for today: Obama +9, Hillary net +1. Obama is now roughly tied with Clinton for super-delegate support and only needs about 160 more total delegates to clinch the nomination.

Club For Growth Airing New Ad In Key Senate Race, Attacking S-CHIP

Everybody's favorite right-wing pressure group is getting involved in a key Senate race, in which the Democrats stand a very good chance of picking up an open Republican seat.

The Club For Growth is wading into the already nasty GOP Senate primary in New Mexico, launching a $200,000 ad buy against Rep. Heather Wilson for supporting the S-CHIP bill:

Considering the S-CHIP bill has been popular with the public at large, the GOP has a bit of a conundrum here: If they nominate Wilson's more conservative primary opponent, Rep. Steve Pearce, they could have a weaker candidate against Democratic Rep. Tom Udall. On the other hand, Wilson first has to make it past the party's activist base that votes more heavily in the primaries.


AP: Obama Has Effectively Caught Up With Hillary In Super-Dels

Check out this little nugget buried in an Associated Press story about the parade of super-dels into the Obama camp today:

The developments left the former first lady with 271.5 superdelegates, to 271 for Obama. Little more than four months ago, on the eve of the primary season, she held a lead of 169-63.

Hillary 271.5; Obama 271. Now, if Obama can round up the support of the other half of that half-delegate that Hillary has on him, he'll have tied her outright.

Seriously, by the AP's reckoning, Obama has basically pulled dead even now, another sign that the party is slowly swinging around behind him. This comes after ABC News concluded this morning that he'd pulled ahead.

Meanwhile, CNN's count puts Hillary ahead by four super-dels, and MSNBC's tally puts her up by 4.5.

McAuliffe: Joint Ticket Would Be "A Great Idea"

This aired last night, but it's worth a quick look as a sign of what's to come.

Here is top Hillary adviser Terry McAuliffe, talking up the idea of a joint ticket in rather glowing terms in an interview that aired on Sirius radio (transcript sent over by the station)...

TERRY MCAULIFFE: Well first of all, as you know Mark, both of them, both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are themselves going to have to decide who they think is going to be their best Vice President. For the rest of us it's speculation and presumption and all that.

I'm just -- I'll put on my former chairman of the Democratic Party hat -- I think it's a great idea at the end of this process for us all to be together...

I do get excited about the possibility of having Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton crisscrossing this country in the fall of 2008. I think that would be pretty exciting. But I have absolutely no say in it. Hillary Clinton and I have never talked about it. But as former chairman of the party it does get you somewhat excited.

Prediction: The public enthusiasm among top Hillary supporters for an Obama-Hillary ticket will rise roughly in proportion with their growing recognition that Obama is the party's presumptive nominee.

New Hillary Ad Stars Joe Wilson And Valerie Plame

Hillary has a new ad for Oregon starring anti-Bush and anti-war heroes Joe Wilson and Valerie Plame...

The use of the Wilsons, who are revered among anti-war rank-and-file Dems, is designed to appeal to the large, young activist population in Oregon.

"If you care about ending the war," Plame says, "we urge you to join us in supporting Hillary Clinton for president."

Obama's Super-Delegates Keep On Coming

Barack Obama is piling up more super-delegates this afternoon, putting him on pace to overtake Hillary Clinton very soon in all counts:

The campaign has announced via press release the endorsement of Congresswoman Mazie Hirono of Hawaii.

New Mexico add-on super-del Laurie Weahkee, who was selected as an uncommitted super, has announced for Obama.

The Obama campaign has announced the support of South Carolina state party vice chair Wilber Lee Jeffcoat.

California DNC member Vernon Watkins has endorsed Obama, saying simply: "The election is over, everybody knows that. Obama has won."

The score so far today: Obama +8, Clinton net +0. Obama is roughly 160 delegates overall from securing the nomination.

Big Pro-Hillary Third-Party Group Won't Be Funding Ads In West Virginia

I'm told reliably that the American Leadership Project -- the big third-party group funded by Hillary-backing unions and major donors -- will not be funding any ads on her behalf in West Virginia.

The West Virginia contest this coming Tuesday will obviously be an easy win for Hillary. Still, keep in mind that she needs to run up her margin of victory as high as possible, so any third-party spending on her behalf would be helpful.

So it's not hard to divine the significance of the fact that ALP -- one of the biggest-spending outside groups in her corner -- isn't putting any cash into the state.

McCain: Obama Has Nothing In Common With Hamas -- But The Voters Think It Should Be An Issue, Anyway

John McCain has offered a creative new justification for the use of Obama's alleged endorsement by Hamas as an issue in the campaign: Even though Obama clearly has nothing in common with the organization, people will care about it, anyway.

"It's very obvious to everyone that Senator Obama shares nothing of the values or goals of Hamas, which is a terrorist organization," McCain said. "But it's also a fact that a spokesperson from Hamas said that he approves of Obama's candidacy. I think that's of interest to the American people."

Obama's Speech On Economy Is All About McCain -- No Mentions Of Hillary

Talk about pivoting to a general election footing.

Barack Obama just gave a speech on the economy today in Oregon, and the prepared remarks just landed in my inbox.

Number of paragraphs drawing a contrast with McCain on everything from taxes to health care to gas prices to Iraq: Nine.

Number of mentions of Hillary, either explicit or implicit: Zero.

Full speech after the jump.

Read more »

Obama Nabs Another Super-Delegate

His campaign announces that he just picked up another super-del: California DNC Member and superdelegate Ed Espinoza.

On the super-del front, ABC News made a big splash this morning by reporting that Obama has passed Hillary in the super-del count, 267-265.

It's worth noting, however, that the Obama campaign's own super-del count doesn't find this. According to them, she leads 274-265.

It's possible that ABC -- unlike the Obama campaign -- is counting super-dels who have privately committed but not gone public, perhaps explaining the disparity. Either way, the campaign says that he's 163 delegates overall from securing the Dem nomination.

Rahm: Obama Is "Presumptive Nominee." Rahm Flack: That's Not News!

Rahm Emanuel said today that Obama is the "presumptive nominee." Sounds like news, no?

Not according to Rahm's spokesperson. Ben Smith gets the following from Rahm flack Sarah Feinberg:

Easy. Everyone is getting a little over their ski tips. It must be a slow news day. All Rahm said was that Sen. Obama is now the front-runner, which by and large means, because of the calendar, he is the presumptive nominee, at this point. He was stating the obvious.

Don't know about this. Rahm also said that "Hillary can't win." For a party leader like Rahm to declare the race effectively over seems like news to us.

Hillary Campaign Emails Out "Electability" Power-Point To All House Dems

Stepping up its efforts to push her case with super-dels and party leaders, the Hillary campaign is emailing out a Power-Point presentation to all Dems in the House touting her electability and her ability to carry tough swing districts.

You can view the Power-Point in our TPM Document Collection.

The gist of the argument is that Hillary has beaten Obama in the vast majority of tough red-leaning House districts, and has consistently outperformed him among key demographics -- seniors, Hispanics, and rural voters.

You've heard similar stuff in the past, to be sure, albeit not framed in terms of individual House districts, an argument designed to resonate with members of Congress.

The fact that this has been blasted out to every Dem in the House suggests that the Hillary campaign is ratcheting up its behind-the-scenes campaign to win over uncommitted super-dels in the campaign's final days, even as a loss in the a popular vote, in addition to the pledged del count, looms as a likely possibility.

It's unclear how effective this will be, given that the Hillary camp has been making electability arguments for months even as Obama has consistently won over these super-dels at a greater rate.

Dig in and let us know what you find.

GOP Launches New Attack Site To Soften Obama For General Election

The GOP is now shifting gears going into the general election, launching a new attack Web site against Barack Obama called CanWeAsk.com.

The site invites readers to submit rhetorical questions to Obama, centered around the idea that underneath the inspiration he's really just a left-wing empty suit.

Here's their introductory Web video:

ABC: Obama Overtakes Hillary Among Super-Delegates

While each news organization's super-delegate count varies, Barack Obama has reached a new milestone: According to ABC News, the first news outlet to declare this, he has overtaken Hillary Clinton in support among super-delegates by a score of 267-265.

In a further sign of political decline for Hillary Clinton, African-American Congressman Donald Payne of New Jersey has now switched his allegiance from Clinton over to Barack Obama. "It's time now for us to pull our party together," Payne told the Newark Star-Ledger.

Obama has also picked up Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-OR), while Hillary has gotten freshman Rep. Chris Carney (D-PA).

The score so far for today: Obama +2, Hillary net +0.

Late Update: Obama has just been endorsed by Maryland DNC member John Gage, bringing Obama to +3 so far today.

Late Update: Just to clarify a certain point, Payne's switch does beg the question of whether Hillary's statement about winning more white voters has alienated her in any way from black supporters.

McCain Camp Accuses Obama Of Hitting McCain On Age

With the Obama and McCain camps just about ready to proceed to the general election campaign, the insults are already flying fast between them. The latest: McCain aide Mark Salter says Obama was unfairly attacking McCain's age in his rebuttal to McCain's association of Obama with Hamas.

Appearing on CNN earlier, Obama said that McCain was "losing his bearings" by making the Hamas comments, which Salter called "a not particularly clever way of raising John McCain's age as an issue."

"It is important to focus on what Senator Obama is attempting to do here," said Salter. "He is trying desperately to delegitimize the discussion of issues that raise legitimate questions about his judgment and preparedness to be President of the United States."

Obama's Super-Del Whip: Wright Makes Super-Dels More Eager To Back Obama

As noted below, after interviewing Rep. Melissa Bean, one of Obama's chief super-delegate whip-counters, I contacted her office with a follow-up question:

How often do super-dels raise concerns about Reverend Wright, or about Hillary's claim that Obama struggles with blue collar whites?

Here's the answer that was sent back, from Bean herself:

"I have not heard that as a reservation from anybody. I only heard about Reverend Wright in the context of people saying it made them decide to step forward sooner to declare their support for Senator Obama."

This seems like a reference to Obama's handling of the Wright affair. Either way, it's a striking claim indeed from Bean, who talks to the super-dels every day, and obviously runs counter to virtually all of the roar of punditry we've heard on the topic.

Obama's Super-Del Whip: Many Super-Dels Back Obama, But Won't Go Public

I just got off the phone with Rep. Melissa Bean, who is one of Obama's chief super-delegate whip-counters. She said two things of interest:

First, she predicted that it was "entirely possible" that Obama could pull even with Hillary in super-delegates by next week -- and predicted that at the end of the process Obama would have more super-del support than Hillary.

And second, she insisted that many super-dels who are publicly uncommitted actually are privately backing Obama but won't say so right now.

"They're uncommitted, but it doesn't mean they're undecided," said Bean, who speaks to super-dels daily. Why go public, she asked, "if it's unnecessary and will alienate a portion of your base?"

"You're gonna see more quietly let him know, and some already have, that they're in his column," Bean said.

By some counts, Obama is roughly eight super-dels behind Hillary right now. I asked Bean whether Obama would, by next week, draw even with Hillary in public super-del support, given her insistence that she has locked up so many of them privately.

"It's entirely possible," she said. Her overall prediction: "At the end of the day, he will be ahead. When those who are `undecided' become public, he'll be in great shape."

Separately, I've contacted Bean's office with a follow-up: In all her conversations with super-dels, how often, if ever, does she hear them raise concerns about Reverend Wright or Hillary's claim that Obama struggles with blue-collar whites? I'll keep you posted on any answer I get.

Late Update: Bean answers the Wright question here.

McCain Ad: I'm Not That Old -- Meet My Mom!

John McCain has an interesting new ad aimed at women, featuring his mother reminiscing with him about his birth:

The spot is running on select cable channels, many with largely female audiences: ABC Family, A&E, Hallmark Channel, Lifetime, Oxygen and TLC.

The ad seems to be aiming for two birds with one stone: Reaching out to women voters, and also assuring people that John McCain couldn't possibly be too old if his mother is able to shoot an ad with him.

Dianne Feinstein: I'm Sticking By Hillary

Senator Dianne Feinstein caused a big stir yesterday by suggesting that the drawn-out Dem primary was producing "negative dividends" and indicating that she would ask Hillary what her real game plan is.

But Feinstein spoke privately with Hillary today. And Feinstein is sticking by her candidate and affirming her right to stay in the race:

Feinstein talked with Clinton via phone this morning and erased any doubts about her own commitment to the campaign and that of the candidate. "I'm sticking with her, absolutely," she told reporters. "Her strategy is to win this. And she's entitled to her opportunity to try."

The California senator said she heard "conviction" in Clinton's voice during their conversation. "She feels she owes a deep debt of gratitude to the people that support her -- who support her intensely."...

"I agree that she should take this for as long as she feels she has a chance to win it," Feinstein added. "And she says she will do nothing that causes the party any difficulty."

That last quote is key. The conventional wisdom has been that even if Hillary sticks it out, she'll dial back some of the harsh criticism she's leveled at Obama, both for the sake of future party unity and her own legacy.

Feinstein suggests here that Hillary promised as much to her privately. We'll see what happens.

Housekeeping!

A quick note to readers: We're making some adjustments in how the reader posts -- they're over there to the right -- are being presented here at TPM Election Central.

Upshot: Recent posts -- not the recommended ones, the others -- are being removed from here and will be relocated to TPM Cafe.

If you want more info, TPM Cafe Overlord Andrew Golis explains all right here.


Tracking Today's Super-Delegates: Many Who Met With Obama Today Remaining Neutral

Obama met with Rep. Brad Miller today, and whatever was said apparently worked: MSNBC reports that Miller, a super-del, has agreed to endorse him.

Other House members and super-dels who Obama met with today: Gabrielle Giffords; Dan Boren; Mike McIntyre; Zack Space; Charlie Melancon; Jim Costa; and Tim Mahoney (who will remain neutral).

We're tracking the others. Stay tuned.

Late Update: Rep. Giffords will remain neutral, her spokesperson, C.J. Karamargin, confirms to me. "For the foreseeable future, the Congresswoman will remain uncommitted," Karamargin says.

Late Update: Rep. Dan Boren will remain neutral too, his office confirms. "He is remaining uncommitted for the foreseeable future," Boren spokesperson Cole Perryman tells me.

Late Late Update: Rep. McIntyre will remain uncommitted, confirms spokesman Dean Mitchell.

Still Later Update: Rep. John Spratt, who encountered Obama today, too, will also remain neutral, emails his communications director, Chuck Fant.

So-Late-It's-Already-Happy-Hour Update: Rep. Melancon remains uncommitted too, emails an aide, Joe Bonfiglio.

Very Late Update: Rep. Rick Larsen of Washington has endorsed Obama.

A Super-Delegate Meets With Hillary And Obama, Comes Away Unswayed

Rep. Tim Mahoney, an uncommitted super-del, is getting aggressively courted by both Hillary and Obama, but to no avail, it turns out.

Mahoney met privately with Hillary yesterday, and today with Obama.

But whatever charm was exercised on him by these two candidates behind closed doors apparently didn't sway him. Mahoney's spokesperson, Leslie Pollner, told me a few moments ago:

"He intends to remain uncommitted."

Separately, South Carolina Rep. John Spratt, another super-del who met with Hillary yesterday and encountered Obama on the House floor today, is now leaning towards Obama.

Late Update: It's worth noting that Mahoney is from Florida, and so doesn't count unless the delegation is seated, but the fact that both candidates are courting him suggests they expect this to happen in some capacity.

Hillary Campaign Says No To New Michigan Delegate Proposal

Camp Hillary is rejecting the new plan floated today by Michigan Dems that would seat the delegation by awarding 69 delegates to Hillary and 59 to Obama.

Hillary spokesperson Isaac Baker emails over this:

"This proposal does not honor the 600,000 votes that were cast in Michigan's January primary. Those votes must be counted."

This is hardly surprising, since the proposal gives Hillary a 10 delegate margin -- a significant cut from the 18-delegate margin of victory she enjoyed over "uncommitted" (Obama wasn't on the ballot) in the Michigan primary.

Late Update: A good post from Chris Bowers on the Michigan proposal's larger implications for the race overall.

A Mark Penn Memo From 2007 About Those Big States

There's been a bit of a back and forth today about that report saying that Mark Penn, unaware that Dems award their delegates proportionally, thought that Hillary would win all of California's 370 delegates.

Penn denied the report today. Either way, behind the anecdote is the larger, oft-told story of how the Hillary campaign erred by expecting the big states to carry them to victory, leading them to neglect the smaller states, where Obama racked up huge delegate margins.

With that in mind, check out this Mark Penn memo from April of 2007, sent over by a friend, in which Penn touts her leads in the big states as a sign of her strength:

In New York, New Jersey and Florida, Hillary leads by 20-30 points. In California, Texas and Pennsylvania, she leads by 13-19 points. These states have the lion's share of Democratic primary voters and delegates. And without Gore, who is not currently running, the lead is even larger.

Just for the fun of it.

The memo shows you how dramatically the landscape has shifted. And how long this race has been going on, too: It was written over a year ago.

McAuliffe: This Race Won't Go To The Convention

On one of the morning shows today, top Hillary adviser Terry McAuliffe said that the Dem primary will not -- repeat, not -- be going to the convention:

"It'll be over early June," McAuliffe said. "We've all said we'll be together at the end. If Hillary doesn't win, Hillary, President Clinton, myself, we'll be over there helping Senator Obama. And, likewise, Senator Obama will come together to help Hillary if she's the nominee."

Some will be tempted to think that McAuliffe is deliberately trying to assuage fears of a floor fight in order to prevent party leaders and others from pressing super-delegates to flock to Obama in hopes of ending the contest. And this is certainly possible.

Indeed, today's Wall Street Journal reports -- albeit with very weak sourcing -- that Bill Clinton is privately urging that Hillary take this all the way to the convention. And on the trail today, Bill said that she could still win:

"We are gonna have to resolve Michigan and Florida and when we do she can win the popular vote," Clinton said...

The only thing I can add here is that I have not spoken to a single Hillaryland insider who believes that it actually will come down to a floor fight.

Mark Penn Denies Not Knowing The Basics About Dem Primaries

Hillary's former chief strategist denies that story we posted on below saying that Penn didn't know that Dems don't do winner-take-all primaries.

I have no idea what's true here. It's worth noting, however, that if Penn didn't know this, he would have managed to get through Bill Clinton's 1996 campaign (though in fairness there were no primaries) and Joe Lieberman's in 2004 without ever learning this basic fact about the nomination process.

Anything is possible, I suppose, particularly when it involves Penn.

Report: Top Hillary Supporter Harvey Weinstein Threatened Pelosi

Looks like another extremely high profile Hillary backer may have threatened Nancy Pelosi in an effort to help his gal:

In a heated phone call with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi late last month, Hillary Clinton supporter Harvey Weinstein threatened to cut off campaign money to congressional Democrats unless Pelosi embraced a new plan by the movie mogul to finance a revote of the Democratic presidential primaries in Florida and Michigan, according to three officials who were briefed on the contents of the conversation.

The three officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk publicly about the private phone conversation, said Weinstein, a top supporter of Clinton's presidential campaign, appeared determined to buy Clinton more time in her battle against Sen. Barack Obama by pushing for the revote and pressing Pelosi to back off her previous comments that superdelegates should support the candidate who's leading in pledged delegates in early June.

Weinstein vehemently denied the threat to cut off funding.

In March, twenty top Hillary donors tacitly threatened to stop funding the Dems' effort to beef up their House majority in order to get Pelosi to shift her stance on the role of the super-dels in the nomination process.

Michigan Dems Suggest Compromise Delegate Plan

We may be on the verge of a compromise on the Michigan situation -- with the key being that a new solution wouldn't actually change the overall delegate race.

The Michigan state party's executive committee voted to submit a proposal to the DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee, to send 69 delegates for Clinton and 59 for Obama.

The +10 margin for Hillary would be a significant cut from her +18 over "Uncommitted" in the state's rogue January primary, would take away any chance of getting at any of the 55 slots for Uncommitted, and would still allow the seating of a full delegation.

Meanwhile, the Wall St. Journal points out that we might soon see a softening of Obama's position on this issue. With the likelihood of his nomination now significantly increased, he is free to approve any plan that would seat delegates but wouldn't swing the nomination over to Hillary.

Report: Mark Penn Thought Dem Primaries Were Winner-Take-All

With the Clinton campaign widely viewed as being on its last legs, staffers are now more free than ever to dish out some dirt on the many strategic blunders of Mark Penn.

The latest: At a strategy session last year, Penn reportedly said that a Clinton win in California would effectively wrap up the nomination by awarding her all of the state's 370 delegates.

As we all know, Democrats don't do winner-take-all primaries, but instead use a form of proportional representation that has been in force for about 20 years -- a fact that didn't seem to sink in with the Clinton campaign and their big-state strategy.

New York Congresswoman: Hillary's Chances "Pretty Unlikely"

Another one of Hillary Clinton's Congressional backers is now openly voicing her doubts. Rep. Louise Slaughter (D-NY), called the latest primary results "grim," adding that "If you look at all the math and what's out there, it's pretty unlikely."

This follows yesterday's story that Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), a staunch Clinton supporter who worked very hard for her in California, was now asking to see what Hillary's plan was for winning the nomination from here.

Clinton: "Women Are Going To Be Heard" In The Remaining Primaries

Hillary Clinton might be on the ropes, but her remarks at a fundraiser last night show that she still expects one demographic group to come out strong for her in the remaining contests: Women voters.

"Do you know difficult it is for women to stand up and say we are the best at anything?" Clinton said last night at a "Generations of Women for Hillary" fundraiser in Washington. "The Democratic Party has to know that women are the core, women have to be at the table and women are going to be heard as we continue in these contests until they finally end."

Former Edwards-Backer David Bonior Endorsing Obama

Barack Obama is continuing to pick up support from former Edwards backers, an indication of both his overall momentum and a strategy to dispel the idea that he can't appeal to the white working class.

The latest endorsement is coming from former House Dem Whip David Bonior, who served as Edwards' campaign manager and was a longtime antagonist of the Clintons on trade issues. Bonior has a lot of pull with unions, so don't be surprised if a few more of them come out for Obama in the remaining contests and in lobbying uncommitted super-delegates.

More Calls For Hillary To Drop Out, But Some Congressional Backers Stand Firm

With the action in the presidential race shifting over to the super-delegates in Congress that the campaigns are fighting over, sentiment appears to be mixed on Capitol Hill as to whether Hillary should stay in the race.

One Hillary backer, Michigan Rep. Dale Kildee, came a hair short of urging her to bail:

"I urge her to take the day off and think very seriously about doing what's best for the country and best for the party," said Kildee.

Meanwhile, more Obama backers on the Hill joined the chorus:

"It's obvious that the nomination process is over," said Rep. Lacy Clay (D-Mo.), who has endorsed Obama. "I hope that she and her campaign will move forward and wrap this up."

Added Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, another Obama backer: "I hope she is considering it. I think it's time for us to stand together and start attacking the position that the Republican nominee has taken."

The Hill claims, however, that "most" Clinton backers in Congress remain united behind her.

My conversations with people on the Hill today suggest that there's actually something of a sense of relief among Hill staffers about yesterday's results. There's a palpable sense that now that things have been placed on track to a decisive Obama victory in the pledged del count and popular vote -- meaning there will almost certainly be no metric by which Hillary can claim victory -- the likelihood of a very messy end to this has been reduced.

Hillary Picks Up Another Super-Del

Hillary Clinton has reportedly picked up another super-delegate today, even as she works to dispel the idea that she should drop out.

Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-IN) is now backing Hillary, on the grounds that she carried his district in the primary. He joins Rep. Heath Shuler (D-NC), who also announced earlier today that he's supporting Hillary because she carried his district.

Today's score so far: Obama +4, Hillary +1. (Clinton lost a super-delegate in a defection to Obama.)

The overall super-del score: Hillary 273.5, Obama 260.

Hillary Huddling With Super-Dels In D.C.

Marc Ambinder reports that Hillary is currently down at the DCCC in Washington, huddled in a meeting with super-delegates right now.

I can tell you that a couple of sources in the building confirm the same. If we can put together what happened there, we'll bring you an update.

Hillary Super-Delegate Defects To Obama

Barack Obama is picking up yet more super-delegate support -- and Hillary Clinton might be starting to bleed hers.

Virginia DNC member Jennifer McClellan has now switched from supporting Hillary over to Obama, further diminishing her slim advantage in the super-del count.

The super-delegate scoreboard from NBC News before McClellan's switch was 273.5 for Hillary, 259 for Obama -- making the new score 272.5 Hillary, 260 Obama.

Paper That Endorsed Hillary Calls On Her To Exit Race

The Washington Blade, which endorsed Hillary, calls on her to step out of the race today in an editorial penned by the paper's editor....

Last night's results in the North Carolina and Indiana primaries have left Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton out of options. She ran a tough and spirited campaign that will be talked about for a generation. But it's over.

The time has come for Clinton to adopt a gracious and conciliatory tone, end her campaign and endorse Sen. Barack Obama for president.

To our knowledge it's the first paper backing Hillary to call on her to leave. If any of you see other papers around the country doing the same -- or, for that matter, urging her to stay in -- please send 'em my way.

Obama Rollout Of Super-Dels Begins

The rollout begins.

The Obama camp is announcing some more super-delegate endorsements today, a first step in a process that they hope will end the nomination fight in a relatively short time.

The new super-dels are: DNC member Inola Henry of California, North Carolina party chair Jerry Meek, and North Carolina DNC member Jeanette Council, who'd first announced her support yesterday to a local newspaper.

This will bring Hillary's lead among super-delegates to less than 15.

Uncommitted Super-Del: How Could I Tell My Black Constituents I'm Backing Hillary?

The uncommitted super-delegates are rarely candid about this publicly, but one of the key reasons they feel pressure to back Barack Obama is that as elected officials, they are themselves dependent on black voters -- so picking Hillary at this point solely on the basis of her alleged "electability" would seriously risk alienating their core supporters.

Brad Miller, a white Democratic Congressman from North Carolina, just admitted as much in an interview with the Washington Post, saying that he would be uncomfortable telling his African-American constituents that he was picking Hillary over the African American winner of the pledged-del count on the grounds that she might be more electable: "I'm not sure how I could tell them that."

It's yet another major hurdle Hillary faces as she seeks to woo the super-dels to her side as Obama marches towards the nomination.

Hillary: "I'm Staying In This Race Until There's A Nominee"

Hillary, at a press conference moments ago:

"Well, I'm saying in this race until there's a nominee. And I obviously am going to work as hard as I can to become that nominee."

This means either...

(a) She's not dropping out until Obama reaches the magic number of delegates by attracting super-dels to put him over the top;

(b) She's not dropping out until some sort of arrangement persuades her to concede Obama the title of nominee herself; or

(c) She's not dropping out until a battle over the super-dels and/or a floor fight at the convention results in one of the two getting the magic number.

Indeed, on that last score, she was asked about the possibility that there could be a fight on the Rules and Bylaws Committee over seating the Michigan and Florida delegations. Her reply:

"Under the rules of the Democratic Party, the Rules and Bylaws Committee makes the first determination. And if people are not satisfied with that they go to the Credentials Committee. So we'll see what the outcome is."

"If people are not satisfied..."

Onward we go.

Late Update: For a time, the comments section on this post was inadvertently turned off. Apologies. Comment away.

Late Update: Here's video...


Hillary, Obama Nab Super-Dels

Despite Obama's big win yesterday, Hillary and Obama are running even in super-delegate endorsements since yesterday's contests got underway.

Clinton has been endorsed today by freshman Congressman Heath Shuler of North Carolina, whose Appalachian district Hillary carried by 13 points. Shuler had previously indicated he would back the district winner.

Obama has been endorsed by North Carolina DNC member Jeanette Council, who announced her support before the polls closed yesterday.