Hillary held a private rally-the-troops conference call with her super-delegate supporters this afternoon, urging them to believe that "this race is not over," vowing to them she'd promote Dem unity after the primary, and conceding that she knows what they and the party are going through "is not easy."

Somewhat tantalizingly, Hillary also claimed that there were back-channel talks of some kind going on between the two campaigns, possibly about how to maintain Democratic unity after the primary. Asked by a super-delegate whether there were discussions going on between the two camps about what would happen after the voting concluded, she said:

"There's a lot of communication between both of the campaigns all the time. I don't know how specific it is, but we have very open lines of communication...I know that both Senator Obama and I are committed, and the campaigns are as well, to making sure that when this is resolved" we will do everything we can to "unify the party." She didn't elaborate further.

The call -- convened for super-dels committed to supporting her -- provided a glimpse into the campaign's behind-the-scenes efforts to prevent supporters from bolting even as her prospects grow bleaker by the day.

I was able to listen to the call in its entirety.

Hillary projected a surprisingly cheerful tone despite recent events, and if she is having doubts about what's going to happen, she didn't show it on the call. "Despite what some in the media are saying, this race is not over," she said.

Hillary top adviser Harold Ickes was on the call, too. Some noteworthy tidbits from the call:

* Ickes claimed that there was no discussion internally on the campaign of the possibility that she would angle for a veep slot. "There's no talk within the Hillary campaign about that," Ickes said in response to a questioner.

* Ickes came under questioning from a super-delegate who said he would have "a problem" if she didn't win the pledged del count or the popular vote, and declined to say what she would do. Indeed, he repeatedly maintained that she would still be ahead in the popular vote at the end of the contest, Florida and Michigan included, and predicted flatly that she would be behind by less than 100 delegates at the end of the voting.

* Hillary sought to persuade supporters to hold the line by vowing to them that she would do everything she could to make sure the party unified behind the eventual nominee. "I know this is not easy," Hillary said. She added: "We will close ranks and I know we will be totally unified going forward."

"I just want to underscore my gratitude," she concluded. "This is bigger than me...it's about standing firm [behind] the values we share."

The McCain seems to be making a big play for Iowa, where polling has shown him trailing Barack Obama. They have premiered this new ad, in which McCain promises to look out for people on economic issues:

"The great goal is to get the American economy running at full strength again," McCain says, "creating the opportunities Americans expect and the jobs Americans need."

A new poll shows another Republican senator just slightly ahead of the opposition, another sign that the Senate GOP will have to seriously play on defense this year.

The new Rasmussen poll of Oregon has two-term Sen. Gordon Smith below 50% against state House Speaker Jeff Merkley and Democratic activist Steve Novick:

Smith (R) 45%, Merkley (D) 42% Smith (R) 47%, Novick (D) 41%

Smith is a relative GOP moderate who has turned against the Bush Administration on many Iraq-related votes. However, this remains a state that is likely to go Democratic in the Fall, so he'll need quite a few ticket-splitters to get across the finish line.

Two more super-delegates have endorsed late today, in addition to those we reported on this afternoon, with one new super-del for Barack Obama and one for Hillary Clinton.

Virginia DNC member Joe Johnson announced his support for Barack Obama, while Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D-TX) has endorsed Hillary.

The score for today: Obama +9, Hillary net +1. Obama is now roughly tied with Clinton for super-delegate support and only needs about 160 more total delegates to clinch the nomination.

Everybody's favorite right-wing pressure group is getting involved in a key Senate race, in which the Democrats stand a very good chance of picking up an open Republican seat.

The Club For Growth is wading into the already nasty GOP Senate primary in New Mexico, launching a $200,000 ad buy against Rep. Heather Wilson for supporting the S-CHIP bill:

Considering the S-CHIP bill has been popular with the public at large, the GOP has a bit of a conundrum here: If they nominate Wilson's more conservative primary opponent, Rep. Steve Pearce, they could have a weaker candidate against Democratic Rep. Tom Udall. On the other hand, Wilson first has to make it past the party's activist base that votes more heavily in the primaries.

Check out this little nugget buried in an Associated Press story about the parade of super-dels into the Obama camp today:

The developments left the former first lady with 271.5 superdelegates, to 271 for Obama. Little more than four months ago, on the eve of the primary season, she held a lead of 169-63.

Hillary 271.5; Obama 271. Now, if Obama can round up the support of the other half of that half-delegate that Hillary has on him, he'll have tied her outright.

Seriously, by the AP's reckoning, Obama has basically pulled dead even now, another sign that the party is slowly swinging around behind him. This comes after ABC News concluded this morning that he'd pulled ahead.

Meanwhile, CNN's count puts Hillary ahead by four super-dels, and MSNBC's tally puts her up by 4.5.

This aired last night, but it's worth a quick look as a sign of what's to come.

Here is top Hillary adviser Terry McAuliffe, talking up the idea of a joint ticket in rather glowing terms in an interview that aired on Sirius radio (transcript sent over by the station)...

TERRY MCAULIFFE: Well first of all, as you know Mark, both of them, both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are themselves going to have to decide who they think is going to be their best Vice President. For the rest of us it's speculation and presumption and all that.

I'm just -- I'll put on my former chairman of the Democratic Party hat -- I think it's a great idea at the end of this process for us all to be together...

I do get excited about the possibility of having Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton crisscrossing this country in the fall of 2008. I think that would be pretty exciting. But I have absolutely no say in it. Hillary Clinton and I have never talked about it. But as former chairman of the party it does get you somewhat excited.

Prediction: The public enthusiasm among top Hillary supporters for an Obama-Hillary ticket will rise roughly in proportion with their growing recognition that Obama is the party's presumptive nominee.

Hillary has a new ad for Oregon starring anti-Bush and anti-war heroes Joe Wilson and Valerie Plame...

The use of the Wilsons, who are revered among anti-war rank-and-file Dems, is designed to appeal to the large, young activist population in Oregon.

"If you care about ending the war," Plame says, "we urge you to join us in supporting Hillary Clinton for president."

Barack Obama is piling up more super-delegates this afternoon, putting him on pace to overtake Hillary Clinton very soon in all counts:

• The campaign has announced via press release the endorsement of Congresswoman Mazie Hirono of Hawaii.

• New Mexico add-on super-del Laurie Weahkee, who was selected as an uncommitted super, has announced for Obama.

• The Obama campaign has announced the support of South Carolina state party vice chair Wilber Lee Jeffcoat.

• California DNC member Vernon Watkins has endorsed Obama, saying simply: "The election is over, everybody knows that. Obama has won."

The score so far today: Obama +8, Clinton net +0. Obama is roughly 160 delegates overall from securing the nomination.

I'm told reliably that the American Leadership Project -- the big third-party group funded by Hillary-backing unions and major donors -- will not be funding any ads on her behalf in West Virginia.

The West Virginia contest this coming Tuesday will obviously be an easy win for Hillary. Still, keep in mind that she needs to run up her margin of victory as high as possible, so any third-party spending on her behalf would be helpful.

So it's not hard to divine the significance of the fact that ALP -- one of the biggest-spending outside groups in her corner -- isn't putting any cash into the state.

John McCain has offered a creative new justification for the use of Obama's alleged endorsement by Hamas as an issue in the campaign: Even though Obama clearly has nothing in common with the organization, people will care about it, anyway.

"It's very obvious to everyone that Senator Obama shares nothing of the values or goals of Hamas, which is a terrorist organization," McCain said. "But it's also a fact that a spokesperson from Hamas said that he approves of Obama's candidacy. I think that's of interest to the American people."

Talk about pivoting to a general election footing.

Barack Obama just gave a speech on the economy today in Oregon, and the prepared remarks just landed in my inbox.

Number of paragraphs drawing a contrast with McCain on everything from taxes to health care to gas prices to Iraq: Nine.

Number of mentions of Hillary, either explicit or implicit: Zero.

Full speech after the jump.

Read more »

His campaign announces that he just picked up another super-del: California DNC Member and superdelegate Ed Espinoza.

On the super-del front, ABC News made a big splash this morning by reporting that Obama has passed Hillary in the super-del count, 267-265.

It's worth noting, however, that the Obama campaign's own super-del count doesn't find this. According to them, she leads 274-265.

It's possible that ABC -- unlike the Obama campaign -- is counting super-dels who have privately committed but not gone public, perhaps explaining the disparity. Either way, the campaign says that he's 163 delegates overall from securing the Dem nomination.

Rahm Emanuel said today that Obama is the "presumptive nominee." Sounds like news, no?

Not according to Rahm's spokesperson. Ben Smith gets the following from Rahm flack Sarah Feinberg:

Easy. Everyone is getting a little over their ski tips. It must be a slow news day. All Rahm said was that Sen. Obama is now the front-runner, which by and large means, because of the calendar, he is the presumptive nominee, at this point. He was stating the obvious.

Don't know about this. Rahm also said that "Hillary can't win." For a party leader like Rahm to declare the race effectively over seems like news to us.

Stepping up its efforts to push her case with super-dels and party leaders, the Hillary campaign is emailing out a Power-Point presentation to all Dems in the House touting her electability and her ability to carry tough swing districts.

You can view the Power-Point in our TPM Document Collection.

The gist of the argument is that Hillary has beaten Obama in the vast majority of tough red-leaning House districts, and has consistently outperformed him among key demographics -- seniors, Hispanics, and rural voters.

You've heard similar stuff in the past, to be sure, albeit not framed in terms of individual House districts, an argument designed to resonate with members of Congress.

The fact that this has been blasted out to every Dem in the House suggests that the Hillary campaign is ratcheting up its behind-the-scenes campaign to win over uncommitted super-dels in the campaign's final days, even as a loss in the a popular vote, in addition to the pledged del count, looms as a likely possibility.

It's unclear how effective this will be, given that the Hillary camp has been making electability arguments for months even as Obama has consistently won over these super-dels at a greater rate.

Dig in and let us know what you find.

The GOP is now shifting gears going into the general election, launching a new attack Web site against Barack Obama called CanWeAsk.com.

The site invites readers to submit rhetorical questions to Obama, centered around the idea that underneath the inspiration he's really just a left-wing empty suit.

Here's their introductory Web video:

While each news organization's super-delegate count varies, Barack Obama has reached a new milestone: According to ABC News, the first news outlet to declare this, he has overtaken Hillary Clinton in support among super-delegates by a score of 267-265.

In a further sign of political decline for Hillary Clinton, African-American Congressman Donald Payne of New Jersey has now switched his allegiance from Clinton over to Barack Obama. "It's time now for us to pull our party together," Payne told the Newark Star-Ledger.

Obama has also picked up Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-OR), while Hillary has gotten freshman Rep. Chris Carney (D-PA).

The score so far for today: Obama +2, Hillary net +0.

Late Update: Obama has just been endorsed by Maryland DNC member John Gage, bringing Obama to +3 so far today.

Late Update: Just to clarify a certain point, Payne's switch does beg the question of whether Hillary's statement about winning more white voters has alienated her in any way from black supporters.

With the Obama and McCain camps just about ready to proceed to the general election campaign, the insults are already flying fast between them. The latest: McCain aide Mark Salter says Obama was unfairly attacking McCain's age in his rebuttal to McCain's association of Obama with Hamas.

Appearing on CNN earlier, Obama said that McCain was "losing his bearings" by making the Hamas comments, which Salter called "a not particularly clever way of raising John McCain's age as an issue."

"It is important to focus on what Senator Obama is attempting to do here," said Salter. "He is trying desperately to delegitimize the discussion of issues that raise legitimate questions about his judgment and preparedness to be President of the United States."

As noted below, after interviewing Rep. Melissa Bean, one of Obama's chief super-delegate whip-counters, I contacted her office with a follow-up question:

How often do super-dels raise concerns about Reverend Wright, or about Hillary's claim that Obama struggles with blue collar whites?

Here's the answer that was sent back, from Bean herself:

"I have not heard that as a reservation from anybody. I only heard about Reverend Wright in the context of people saying it made them decide to step forward sooner to declare their support for Senator Obama."

This seems like a reference to Obama's handling of the Wright affair. Either way, it's a striking claim indeed from Bean, who talks to the super-dels every day, and obviously runs counter to virtually all of the roar of punditry we've heard on the topic.

I just got off the phone with Rep. Melissa Bean, who is one of Obama's chief super-delegate whip-counters. She said two things of interest:

First, she predicted that it was "entirely possible" that Obama could pull even with Hillary in super-delegates by next week -- and predicted that at the end of the process Obama would have more super-del support than Hillary.

And second, she insisted that many super-dels who are publicly uncommitted actually are privately backing Obama but won't say so right now.

"They're uncommitted, but it doesn't mean they're undecided," said Bean, who speaks to super-dels daily. Why go public, she asked, "if it's unnecessary and will alienate a portion of your base?"

"You're gonna see more quietly let him know, and some already have, that they're in his column," Bean said.

By some counts, Obama is roughly eight super-dels behind Hillary right now. I asked Bean whether Obama would, by next week, draw even with Hillary in public super-del support, given her insistence that she has locked up so many of them privately.

"It's entirely possible," she said. Her overall prediction: "At the end of the day, he will be ahead. When those who are `undecided' become public, he'll be in great shape."

Separately, I've contacted Bean's office with a follow-up: In all her conversations with super-dels, how often, if ever, does she hear them raise concerns about Reverend Wright or Hillary's claim that Obama struggles with blue-collar whites? I'll keep you posted on any answer I get.

Late Update: Bean answers the Wright question here.

John McCain has an interesting new ad aimed at women, featuring his mother reminiscing with him about his birth:

The spot is running on select cable channels, many with largely female audiences: ABC Family, A&E, Hallmark Channel, Lifetime, Oxygen and TLC.

The ad seems to be aiming for two birds with one stone: Reaching out to women voters, and also assuring people that John McCain couldn't possibly be too old if his mother is able to shoot an ad with him.

Senator Dianne Feinstein caused a big stir yesterday by suggesting that the drawn-out Dem primary was producing "negative dividends" and indicating that she would ask Hillary what her real game plan is.

But Feinstein spoke privately with Hillary today. And Feinstein is sticking by her candidate and affirming her right to stay in the race:

Feinstein talked with Clinton via phone this morning and erased any doubts about her own commitment to the campaign and that of the candidate. "I'm sticking with her, absolutely," she told reporters. "Her strategy is to win this. And she's entitled to her opportunity to try."

The California senator said she heard "conviction" in Clinton's voice during their conversation. "She feels she owes a deep debt of gratitude to the people that support her -- who support her intensely."...

"I agree that she should take this for as long as she feels she has a chance to win it," Feinstein added. "And she says she will do nothing that causes the party any difficulty."

That last quote is key. The conventional wisdom has been that even if Hillary sticks it out, she'll dial back some of the harsh criticism she's leveled at Obama, both for the sake of future party unity and her own legacy.

Feinstein suggests here that Hillary promised as much to her privately. We'll see what happens.

A quick note to readers: We're making some adjustments in how the reader posts -- they're over there to the right -- are being presented here at TPM Election Central.

Upshot: Recent posts -- not the recommended ones, the others -- are being removed from here and will be relocated to TPM Cafe.

If you want more info, TPM Cafe Overlord Andrew Golis explains all right here.

Obama met with Rep. Brad Miller today, and whatever was said apparently worked: MSNBC reports that Miller, a super-del, has agreed to endorse him.

Other House members and super-dels who Obama met with today: Gabrielle Giffords; Dan Boren; Mike McIntyre; Zack Space; Charlie Melancon; Jim Costa; and Tim Mahoney (who will remain neutral).

We're tracking the others. Stay tuned.

Late Update: Rep. Giffords will remain neutral, her spokesperson, C.J. Karamargin, confirms to me. "For the foreseeable future, the Congresswoman will remain uncommitted," Karamargin says.

Late Update: Rep. Dan Boren will remain neutral too, his office confirms. "He is remaining uncommitted for the foreseeable future," Boren spokesperson Cole Perryman tells me.

Late Late Update: Rep. McIntyre will remain uncommitted, confirms spokesman Dean Mitchell.

Still Later Update: Rep. John Spratt, who encountered Obama today, too, will also remain neutral, emails his communications director, Chuck Fant.

So-Late-It's-Already-Happy-Hour Update: Rep. Melancon remains uncommitted too, emails an aide, Joe Bonfiglio.

Very Late Update: Rep. Rick Larsen of Washington has endorsed Obama.

Rep. Tim Mahoney, an uncommitted super-del, is getting aggressively courted by both Hillary and Obama, but to no avail, it turns out.

Mahoney met privately with Hillary yesterday, and today with Obama.

But whatever charm was exercised on him by these two candidates behind closed doors apparently didn't sway him. Mahoney's spokesperson, Leslie Pollner, told me a few moments ago:

"He intends to remain uncommitted."

Separately, South Carolina Rep. John Spratt, another super-del who met with Hillary yesterday and encountered Obama on the House floor today, is now leaning towards Obama.

Late Update: It's worth noting that Mahoney is from Florida, and so doesn't count unless the delegation is seated, but the fact that both candidates are courting him suggests they expect this to happen in some capacity.

Camp Hillary is rejecting the new plan floated today by Michigan Dems that would seat the delegation by awarding 69 delegates to Hillary and 59 to Obama.

Hillary spokesperson Isaac Baker emails over this:

"This proposal does not honor the 600,000 votes that were cast in Michigan's January primary. Those votes must be counted."

This is hardly surprising, since the proposal gives Hillary a 10 delegate margin -- a significant cut from the 18-delegate margin of victory she enjoyed over "uncommitted" (Obama wasn't on the ballot) in the Michigan primary.

Late Update: A good post from Chris Bowers on the Michigan proposal's larger implications for the race overall.

There's been a bit of a back and forth today about that report saying that Mark Penn, unaware that Dems award their delegates proportionally, thought that Hillary would win all of California's 370 delegates.

Penn denied the report today. Either way, behind the anecdote is the larger, oft-told story of how the Hillary campaign erred by expecting the big states to carry them to victory, leading them to neglect the smaller states, where Obama racked up huge delegate margins.

With that in mind, check out this Mark Penn memo from April of 2007, sent over by a friend, in which Penn touts her leads in the big states as a sign of her strength:

In New York, New Jersey and Florida, Hillary leads by 20-30 points. In California, Texas and Pennsylvania, she leads by 13-19 points. These states have the lion's share of Democratic primary voters and delegates. And without Gore, who is not currently running, the lead is even larger.

Just for the fun of it.

The memo shows you how dramatically the landscape has shifted. And how long this race has been going on, too: It was written over a year ago.

On one of the morning shows today, top Hillary adviser Terry McAuliffe said that the Dem primary will not -- repeat, not -- be going to the convention:

"It'll be over early June," McAuliffe said. "We've all said we'll be together at the end. If Hillary doesn't win, Hillary, President Clinton, myself, we'll be over there helping Senator Obama. And, likewise, Senator Obama will come together to help Hillary if she's the nominee."

Some will be tempted to think that McAuliffe is deliberately trying to assuage fears of a floor fight in order to prevent party leaders and others from pressing super-delegates to flock to Obama in hopes of ending the contest. And this is certainly possible.

Indeed, today's Wall Street Journal reports -- albeit with very weak sourcing -- that Bill Clinton is privately urging that Hillary take this all the way to the convention. And on the trail today, Bill said that she could still win:

"We are gonna have to resolve Michigan and Florida and when we do she can win the popular vote," Clinton said...

The only thing I can add here is that I have not spoken to a single Hillaryland insider who believes that it actually will come down to a floor fight.

Hillary's former chief strategist denies that story we posted on below saying that Penn didn't know that Dems don't do winner-take-all primaries.

I have no idea what's true here. It's worth noting, however, that if Penn didn't know this, he would have managed to get through Bill Clinton's 1996 campaign (though in fairness there were no primaries) and Joe Lieberman's in 2004 without ever learning this basic fact about the nomination process.

Anything is possible, I suppose, particularly when it involves Penn.

Looks like another extremely high profile Hillary backer may have threatened Nancy Pelosi in an effort to help his gal:

In a heated phone call with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi late last month, Hillary Clinton supporter Harvey Weinstein threatened to cut off campaign money to congressional Democrats unless Pelosi embraced a new plan by the movie mogul to finance a revote of the Democratic presidential primaries in Florida and Michigan, according to three officials who were briefed on the contents of the conversation.

The three officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk publicly about the private phone conversation, said Weinstein, a top supporter of Clinton's presidential campaign, appeared determined to buy Clinton more time in her battle against Sen. Barack Obama by pushing for the revote and pressing Pelosi to back off her previous comments that superdelegates should support the candidate who's leading in pledged delegates in early June.

Weinstein vehemently denied the threat to cut off funding.

In March, twenty top Hillary donors tacitly threatened to stop funding the Dems' effort to beef up their House majority in order to get Pelosi to shift her stance on the role of the super-dels in the nomination process.

We may be on the verge of a compromise on the Michigan situation -- with the key being that a new solution wouldn't actually change the overall delegate race.

The Michigan state party's executive committee voted to submit a proposal to the DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee, to send 69 delegates for Clinton and 59 for Obama.

The +10 margin for Hillary would be a significant cut from her +18 over "Uncommitted" in the state's rogue January primary, would take away any chance of getting at any of the 55 slots for Uncommitted, and would still allow the seating of a full delegation.

Meanwhile, the Wall St. Journal points out that we might soon see a softening of Obama's position on this issue. With the likelihood of his nomination now significantly increased, he is free to approve any plan that would seat delegates but wouldn't swing the nomination over to Hillary.

With the Clinton campaign widely viewed as being on its last legs, staffers are now more free than ever to dish out some dirt on the many strategic blunders of Mark Penn.

The latest: At a strategy session last year, Penn reportedly said that a Clinton win in California would effectively wrap up the nomination by awarding her all of the state's 370 delegates.

As we all know, Democrats don't do winner-take-all primaries, but instead use a form of proportional representation that has been in force for about 20 years -- a fact that didn't seem to sink in with the Clinton campaign and their big-state strategy.

Another one of Hillary Clinton's Congressional backers is now openly voicing her doubts. Rep. Louise Slaughter (D-NY), called the latest primary results "grim," adding that "If you look at all the math and what's out there, it's pretty unlikely."

This follows yesterday's story that Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), a staunch Clinton supporter who worked very hard for her in California, was now asking to see what Hillary's plan was for winning the nomination from here.

Hillary Clinton might be on the ropes, but her remarks at a fundraiser last night show that she still expects one demographic group to come out strong for her in the remaining contests: Women voters.

"Do you know difficult it is for women to stand up and say we are the best at anything?" Clinton said last night at a "Generations of Women for Hillary" fundraiser in Washington. "The Democratic Party has to know that women are the core, women have to be at the table and women are going to be heard as we continue in these contests until they finally end."

Barack Obama is continuing to pick up support from former Edwards backers, an indication of both his overall momentum and a strategy to dispel the idea that he can't appeal to the white working class.

The latest endorsement is coming from former House Dem Whip David Bonior, who served as Edwards' campaign manager and was a longtime antagonist of the Clintons on trade issues. Bonior has a lot of pull with unions, so don't be surprised if a few more of them come out for Obama in the remaining contests and in lobbying uncommitted super-delegates.

With the action in the presidential race shifting over to the super-delegates in Congress that the campaigns are fighting over, sentiment appears to be mixed on Capitol Hill as to whether Hillary should stay in the race.

One Hillary backer, Michigan Rep. Dale Kildee, came a hair short of urging her to bail:

"I urge her to take the day off and think very seriously about doing what's best for the country and best for the party," said Kildee.

Meanwhile, more Obama backers on the Hill joined the chorus:

"It's obvious that the nomination process is over," said Rep. Lacy Clay (D-Mo.), who has endorsed Obama. "I hope that she and her campaign will move forward and wrap this up."

Added Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, another Obama backer: "I hope she is considering it. I think it's time for us to stand together and start attacking the position that the Republican nominee has taken."

The Hill claims, however, that "most" Clinton backers in Congress remain united behind her.

My conversations with people on the Hill today suggest that there's actually something of a sense of relief among Hill staffers about yesterday's results. There's a palpable sense that now that things have been placed on track to a decisive Obama victory in the pledged del count and popular vote -- meaning there will almost certainly be no metric by which Hillary can claim victory -- the likelihood of a very messy end to this has been reduced.

Hillary Clinton has reportedly picked up another super-delegate today, even as she works to dispel the idea that she should drop out.

Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-IN) is now backing Hillary, on the grounds that she carried his district in the primary. He joins Rep. Heath Shuler (D-NC), who also announced earlier today that he's supporting Hillary because she carried his district.

Today's score so far: Obama +4, Hillary +1. (Clinton lost a super-delegate in a defection to Obama.)

The overall super-del score: Hillary 273.5, Obama 260.

Marc Ambinder reports that Hillary is currently down at the DCCC in Washington, huddled in a meeting with super-delegates right now.

I can tell you that a couple of sources in the building confirm the same. If we can put together what happened there, we'll bring you an update.

Barack Obama is picking up yet more super-delegate support -- and Hillary Clinton might be starting to bleed hers.

Virginia DNC member Jennifer McClellan has now switched from supporting Hillary over to Obama, further diminishing her slim advantage in the super-del count.

The super-delegate scoreboard from NBC News before McClellan's switch was 273.5 for Hillary, 259 for Obama -- making the new score 272.5 Hillary, 260 Obama.

The Washington Blade, which endorsed Hillary, calls on her to step out of the race today in an editorial penned by the paper's editor....

Last night's results in the North Carolina and Indiana primaries have left Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton out of options. She ran a tough and spirited campaign that will be talked about for a generation. But it's over.

The time has come for Clinton to adopt a gracious and conciliatory tone, end her campaign and endorse Sen. Barack Obama for president.

To our knowledge it's the first paper backing Hillary to call on her to leave. If any of you see other papers around the country doing the same -- or, for that matter, urging her to stay in -- please send 'em my way.

The rollout begins.

The Obama camp is announcing some more super-delegate endorsements today, a first step in a process that they hope will end the nomination fight in a relatively short time.

The new super-dels are: DNC member Inola Henry of California, North Carolina party chair Jerry Meek, and North Carolina DNC member Jeanette Council, who'd first announced her support yesterday to a local newspaper.

This will bring Hillary's lead among super-delegates to less than 15.

The uncommitted super-delegates are rarely candid about this publicly, but one of the key reasons they feel pressure to back Barack Obama is that as elected officials, they are themselves dependent on black voters -- so picking Hillary at this point solely on the basis of her alleged "electability" would seriously risk alienating their core supporters.

Brad Miller, a white Democratic Congressman from North Carolina, just admitted as much in an interview with the Washington Post, saying that he would be uncomfortable telling his African-American constituents that he was picking Hillary over the African American winner of the pledged-del count on the grounds that she might be more electable: "I'm not sure how I could tell them that."

It's yet another major hurdle Hillary faces as she seeks to woo the super-dels to her side as Obama marches towards the nomination.

Hillary, at a press conference moments ago:

"Well, I'm saying in this race until there's a nominee. And I obviously am going to work as hard as I can to become that nominee."

This means either...

(a) She's not dropping out until Obama reaches the magic number of delegates by attracting super-dels to put him over the top;

(b) She's not dropping out until some sort of arrangement persuades her to concede Obama the title of nominee herself; or

(c) She's not dropping out until a battle over the super-dels and/or a floor fight at the convention results in one of the two getting the magic number.

Indeed, on that last score, she was asked about the possibility that there could be a fight on the Rules and Bylaws Committee over seating the Michigan and Florida delegations. Her reply:

"Under the rules of the Democratic Party, the Rules and Bylaws Committee makes the first determination. And if people are not satisfied with that they go to the Credentials Committee. So we'll see what the outcome is."

"If people are not satisfied..."

Onward we go.

Late Update: For a time, the comments section on this post was inadvertently turned off. Apologies. Comment away.

Late Update: Here's video...

Despite Obama's big win yesterday, Hillary and Obama are running even in super-delegate endorsements since yesterday's contests got underway.

Clinton has been endorsed today by freshman Congressman Heath Shuler of North Carolina, whose Appalachian district Hillary carried by 13 points. Shuler had previously indicated he would back the district winner.

Obama has been endorsed by North Carolina DNC member Jeanette Council, who announced her support before the polls closed yesterday.

Last night, it was reported that top Hillary supporter Wes Clark privately phoned her after last night's results and urged her to quit the race.

But a spokesperson for Clark adamantly denies the report.

"General Clark was on a plane to Ireland last night and in fact didn't learn about the election results until he landed," said the spokesperson, Jessica Vanden Berg. "He didn't talk to Senator Clinton."

Berg added that Clark hadn't spoken to Bill or any of Hillary's campaign advisers.

Responded Obama-supporter John Aravosis of AMERICABlog, which first reported the story: "I wouldn't be surprised if General Clark is denying it -- when you take on the Clintons, the sniper fire is real."

Clark will be among the handful of prominent Hillary supporters whose actions vis a vis Hillary will be among the most closely watched -- by the campaigns, their top supporters, uncommitted super-dels, and the media -- in the days ahead.

Late Update: The Huffington Post reports that Hillary spokesperson Howard Wolfson is also denying the report.

As I reported here last night, yesterday's results have left Obama aides increasingly confident that a potentially game-ending milestone is within their reach:

On May 20th, the day of the Kentucky and Oregon primaries, they predict, Obama will finally clinch a majority of the pledged delegates.

Obama advisers say that when that happens, they will be able to tell the super-delegates that his securing of a majority of pledged dels should prompt super-dels to support them en masse.

On a conference call with reporters just now, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe made this strategy explicit.

Plouffe noted that when you factor in last night's gains, Obama is now 33 short of winning a majority of the 3,253 pledged delegates.

"That will happen on May 20th," Plouffe confidently predicted, adding: "We think that will be an incredibly important date in the campaign."

If the contest is still going on by then, there's little doubt that Obama's official clinching of a majority of pledged dels will give the Obama camp a powerful piece of leverage to use in urging super-dels to put an end to this thing.

Late Update: A detailed look at the numbers leaves little doubt that this milestone is within reach.

Late Update: Here's the audio from the call:

On the Hillary conference call, Hillary chief strategist Geoff Garin made the case for her electability in some of the most explicitly race-based terms I've heard yet.

Garin argued that the North Carolina contest, which Obama won by 14 points, represented "progress" for Hillary because she did better among white voters there than she did in Virginia.

"When we began in North Carolina," Garin said, "our internal polling and much of the public polling [showed] we were running exactly even with white voters."

Garin said that the Virginia electorate was the "closest white electorate in the country" to North Carolina, and added that Hillary "started even" among whites in North Carolina, and "ended up earning a significant win of 24 points."

"We obviously did not do as well as we would want or needed to among African American voters," Garin concluded.

Put in the context of the Hillary campaign's chief argument that she's the more electable Dem, Garin's overall implication here is that her success among white voters in North Carolina yesterday is "progress" in the sense that it strengthens her case for electability.

In other words, it's an explicit, and unabashed, linking of her claim of electability to her success among whites.

Late Update: Atrios, commenting on the above, writes:

There's nothing wrong with acknowledging the reality of race and politics, and there's nothing wrong with politicians targeting their campaigns and messaging towards various subgroups.

What the Clinton campaign is doing is saying that Obama has electability problems, and using their support from white voters as evidence of that. That's a wee bit problematic, and not just because it doesn't follow logically any more than the other electability arguments such as Obama can't win the election because he can't win the primary in big states.

Late Update: Here's the audio from the call:

Breaking from the Associated Press:

Former South Dakota Sen. George McGovern urges Hillary Rodham Clinton to drop out of Democratic race.

To our knowledge, this is the first prominent Hillary supporter to urge her to quit. That could give cover to supporters on both sides to give voice to the same.

Late Update: The AP adds that McGovern will endorse Obama and will call Bill Clinton to inform him of his decision.

On the Hillary conference call, a reporter asked the following of Hillary spokesperson Howard Wolfson:

"Have there been any discussions of not going forward?"

Wolfson's answer:

"No. No discussions."

On a conference call with reporters just now, Hillary spokesperson Howard Wolfson offered details on her $6.4 million loan to her campaign.

"Senator Clinton gave the campaign a $5 million loan on April 11th, a $1 million lona on May 1st, and a $425,000 loan on May 5th," Wolfson said, adding that she'd lent the campaign the money to keep pace with Obama's spending on TV in Pennsylvania, Indiana and North Carolina.

"The loans are a sign of Senator Clinton's commitment to the race, to continuing the process, and to continuing to be competitive with Senator Obama on television and in other areas," Wolfson said.

Separately, Wolfson confirmed that Hillary will be privately meeting with uncommitted super-delegates later this afternoon on Capitol Hill. He declined to say which -- or how many -- super-dels would be attending.

Late Update: Wolfson, on the call, confirms that the loans came from the Clintons' jointly-held assets, as did the first loan to her campaign:

"I don't rule out that she will loan the campaign additional money out of her jointly held-assets."

Hillary spokesperson Howard Wolfson confirms to me that she lent her campaign $6.4 million in the past month.

The AP reported this moments ago, attributing the info to an anonymous aide.

More soon.

Late Update: Details of the loan are here.

In a sign that an anti-Iraq War position could now even be safe for Republicans, pro-withdrawal Rep. Walter Jones (R-NC) was renominated last night over pro-war county commissioner Joe McLaughlin. With all counties reporting, Jones led by a margin of 59.5%-40.5%.

Of the three major anti-war Republicans in the House, only Wayne Gilchrest (R-MD) was defeated in his primary, while Jones and Ron Paul were able to win renomination to their seats.

And in yet another indication of a lack of enthusiasm among the GOP base, only about 38,000 total votes were cast in this safe GOP district, despite a contested gubernatorial primary that could have theoretically boosted turnout.

We might just be on the verge of a big super-delegate break for Barack Obama, in the wake of his good showing last night. If so, that could bring this contest to a close fairly quickly.

George Stephanopoulos reported this morning that the Obama camp will be rolling out super-delegate endorsements "three, four, five at a time -- and this nomination will be locked up."

Hillary Clinton currently leads among super-delegates by about 15 votes.

The Clinton campaign may be hurrying to quash any talk from last night that they're about to shut down.

After the media reported last night that Hillary wouldn't be having any public events today -- often a sign that a losing campaign is about to quit -- the campaign sent out a new schedule this morning with a "Solutions for the American Economy" event in Shepherdstown, West Virginia.

It's official: Hillary will hang on to a victory, such as it is, in Indiana. MSNBC and Fox just called it for her.

With 99% reporting, Hillary wins it 51%-49%.

Given the magnitude of Obama's North Carolina victory, this falls far short of the split decision that the Hillary camp was hoping, at a minimum, to achieve tonight.

And it's not even a big enough win for the Hillary campaign to use in continuing to try to raise doubts about Obama's ability to compete in big states, either.

Right now, the pledged del count overall, from both states tonight, breaks down this way: Obama gets 80; Hillary gets 77; and 30 are still up in the air, more of which are likely to go to him.

Upshot: Just as tonight's popular vote gains for Obama effectively wiped out Hillary's gains from Pennsylvania, so, too, will his pledged del gains likely wipe out hers from the Keystone State.

Hillary has routinely sent out rousing fundraising emails just after her electoral victories in order to squeeze excited supporters for yet another round of contributions.

But the fundraising email she sent out tonight after her Indiana "win" -- which is in doubt as we speak -- is revealingly muted, even subdued...

Tonight's victory in Indiana was close, and a margin that narrow means just one thing: every single thing you did to help us win in Indiana helped make the difference.

Every call you made, every friend you spoke to about our campaign, every dollar you contributed made tonight's victory possible. And I couldn't be more thankful for your hard work.

Every time we've celebrated a victory, we've celebrated it together. And tonight is no exception. This victory is your victory, this campaign is your campaign, and your support has been the difference between winning and losing.

Thank you so much for making this campaign possible. Let's keep making history together.

Sincerely,

Hillary Rodham Clinton

Late Update: Just in case there's any doubt as to whether this is a fundraising pitch, the email also includes a link to click on that says, "contribute."

The Hillary campaign was hoping, at a minimum, that tonight's two contests would more or less cancel each other out, thus keeping it not out of the realm of possibility that she could ultimately close the popular vote gap, including Florida, with a string of future wins.

Those hopes have been dealt a pretty severe blow tonight.

Not only were Indiana and North Carolina not a wash, but Obama's popular vote gains tonight have effectively wiped out her pop vote gains from her resounding win in Pennsylvania.

With 99% reporting in North Carolina, Obama is ahead by about 233,000 votes. Subtract from that the 20,000 that Obama is now trailing by in Indiana, with 92% reporting, and you have roughly a 213,000 gain for Obama.

Hillary won Pennsylvania by 214,000 -- a gain that has now been erased.

On MSNBC, Tim Russert just reported that Hillary was scheduled to appear on the morning shows tomorrow.

But, says Russert, she canceled all her appearances.

...actually, MSNBC has confirmed that she will hold no public events at all:

That's a pretty big deal. Any appearance might force her to publicly defend staying in the race, obviously.

Obama-supporting SEIU emails out a statement basically telling Hillary that it's time to get out of the race:

"Senator Obama's commanding win in North Carolina and close showing in Indiana means he is clearly the Democratic nominee for President," said Anna Burger, SEIU Secretary-Treasurer. "We've had a long process and the outcome is now clear. The Democratic Party should come together to focus on winning in November."

That's another thing to watch for, starting tomorrow -- or, rather, right now: The likelihood that we'll be hearing mounting calls from Obama supporters that she get out of the race.

Presuming the Dem race continues, Hillary is expected to rack up big wins in Kentucky and West Virginia. No one expects that this won't happen.

But does the certainty of her wins in those states -- even if it will allow her to marginally close the pledged del and popular vote margin -- also carry yet another disadvantage for Hillary?

Let me make the case. Hillary's candidacy has rebounded several times with big wins -- hard-earned ones -- that have swung the momentum back in her favor. After her string of losses in February, the big win in Ohio shifted things back in her direction. Then, after her losses in Wyoming and Mississippi, her big Pennsylvania win swung things back her way yet again.

Her ability to grind out tough victories that weren't assured, at times when her back was to the wall, became an integral part of her campaign's emotional and narrative arc.

Now, with Hillary's crushing loss in North Carolina, and her presumed smaller-than-expected win in Indiana, Hillary needs yet another big "game changer," to use a phrase that has been bandied about a bit lately.

Can Kentucky and West Virginia -- smaller states -- really deliver that in the same way that the other big states did? She's far and away the favorite in those states -- so it seems certain that they just won't pack the same kind of dramatic wallop those previous dramatic big-state victories did. They won't offer the emotional payoff that her campaign's previous back-from-the-dead moments provided.

And this is something she now needs at least as much as she did on the eve of all her previous rebounds.

In addition to Kentucky and West Virginia, there is Oregon, Puerto Rico, South Dakota and Montana.

How many "game changers" -- ones of the magnitude she needs -- are left at this point?

Tonight's big win in North Carolina has Obama advisers increasingly confident that they have a shot at effectively putting away the race by May 20th, an Obama campaign aide confirms.

The idea is that May 20th, the date of the Kentucky and Oregon primaries, is the Obama campaign's D-Day. That is, it's the date when Obama will clinch a majority of the 3,253 pledged delegates -- a number Obama advisers can take to the super-delegates and argue that the time has come for them to support Obama en masse.

"We are looking at May 20th as the day we clinch the majority of pledged delegates -- and that will be a compelling case to present to super delegates," the campaign aide says.

That May 20th is a potentially decisive date is not a new idea. But tonight's North Carolina results have reaffirmed confidence among Obama advisers that they can reach that milestone on that day.

Here are the numbers, according to the aide. To get a majority of pledged dels, Obama needs a total of 1,626. Right now he has 1,494, meaning he needs 132 more.

Assuming an even split of tonight's 187 delegates -- a conservative assumption, based on the North Carolina results thus far -- that would give Obama another 93 or 94.

That would mean that Obama needs another 38 to secure a majority.

In the three upcoming states between now and May 20th -- Kentucky, West Virginia, and Oregon -- there are a total of 131 delegates for the taking. Obama needs only 38 of those.

Oregon, where Obama is expected to do well, has 52. "Looking at the remaining contests conservatively, we think May 20th is the day we can clinch the majority," the aide says.

Of course, even if Obama does reach that milestone and clinch a majority of the pledged dels, that doesn't by any means guarantee that the super-dels will break towards him en masse or that Hillary won't fight on. But the Obama campaign hopes to have some powerful leverage on their side to end the race when that day comes.

Obama's victory speech in North Carolina, which just concluded, opened with a couple of little jabs at Hillary's prediction that North Carolina would be a "game changer" and at her claim to having won all the "big states."

He also offered congratulations to Hillary for winning in Indiana, though that's looking a good deal less assured than it did a couple hours ago...

You know, some were saying that North Carolina would be a game-changer in this election. But today, what North Carolina decided is that the only game that needs changing is the one in Washington, DC.

I want to start by congratulating Senator Clinton on her victory in the state of Indiana. And I want to thank the people of North Carolina for giving us a victory in a big state, a swing state, and a state where we will compete to win if I am the Democratic nominee for President of the United States.

Full text of Obama's prepared remarks after the jump.

Read more »

With 33% reporting, Hillary is ahead of Obama, 57%-43%.

Meanwhile, the exits show that in Indiana Hillary continues to outperform among working class voters:

Barack Obama's troubles with white working class voters continue to cost him dearly at the polls: Hillary Clinton captured the votes of two-thirds of Indiana voters who lack a college degree; the two split the white college-educated vote.

Clinton's push for the gun vote seems to have paid off: half the state's Democratic primary voters are gun owners, according to early exit polls, they supported Clinton over Obama, 61 to 39 percent.

Late Update: It should be noted that Obama got 91% of blacks in North Carolina and 92% of them in Indiana.

Late Update: Hillary's margin is expected to narrow as votes come in from the area near Chicago and from Indianapolis.

CNN, NBC, and Fox all call the state for Obama.

Late Update: The race was called virtually at the moment the polls closed, suggesting the likelihood of a decisive victory for Obama. Adding to that likelihood, MSNBC exit polls show that he won 36% of the white vote in this southern state.

Late Update: First-time voters helped fuel Obama's victory: According to exits, the 18 percent in the state who said it was their first time voting in a primary favored Obama overwhelmingly, 68%-26%.

Late Update: Obama chief strategist David Axelrod, speaking to reporters just now, pushed back on the claim that Obama is struggling with whites by pointing out that he won among white voters under 65.

Late Update: Obama advisers believe that tonight's results make it more likely that May 20th will be the campaign's D-Day.

An odd moment on MSNBC just now: Tom Daschle, a major Obama supporter, seemed to suggest that it would be "extra-legal" if the Hillary campaign takes the dispute over the Florida and Michigan delegations to the DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee.

Asked about that scenario, Daschle said:

"If we have the majority of delegates, and we've got a nominee, [then] all this becomes sort of a moot point. I can't imagine that they would actually consider something that dramatic, something that extra-legal, at a time when we really ought to be talking about uniting the party."

Extra-legal? According to Dictionary.com, that words means "not regulated or sanctioned by law."

Whatever you think of any plans to go to the Rules and Bylaws committee, it's not clear that there would be anything "extra-legal" about it at all, at least according to this rundown on how that committee works.

As noted below, the exits reveal intense polarization in the Dem electorate. CNN has a detailed breakdown of these numbers:

* Half of Hillary backers in Indiana wouldn't support Obama in a general elex against McCain, compared to a third of Obama backers who wouldn't back Hillary.

* It's worse in North Carolina: There, only 45% of Hillary supporters say they'd back Obama against McCain, compared to 59% of Obama backers who'd vote for Hillary.

These numbers obviously reflect the white-hot passions of the moment, and they're much higher in these states on the eve of Dem primary voting than they are in the Dem electorate as a whole. But there's no denying that they represent a pretty grim starting place for Dems as they look ahead to the coming confrontation with McCain.

The early exits show:

* Seventeen percent in Indiana and 14% in North Carolina decided in last three days.

* The economy is the major driving issue, with 65% In Indiana saying it was the most important issue, and 60% saying the same in North Carolina. Unsurprisingly, Hillary won among these voters in Indiana, and Obama won among them in NC.

* Voters in both states pretty much split evenly on the question of whether Wright was important in their vote.

* More voters blamed Hillary for negative campaigning -- 63% of Indiana voters and 67 % of North Carolina voters thought Clinton attacked Obama unfairly. Only 43 % in Indiana and 40% in North Carolina thought the reverse.

Meanwhile, Marc Ambinder looks at some more numbers and concludes that "the polarization within the Democratic Party has reached critical levels."

We'll be blogging the results tonight right here. All the polls in Indiana will be closed by 7 P.M., and in North Carolina they'll be closed by 7:30.

Late Update: A detailed breakdown of the numbers showing Dem polarization is here.

The GOP effort to win House seats is so strapped for cash that its leader has now taken to scolding members to get them to cough up donations. In the wake of their defeat this past weekend in Louisiana, NRCC chair Tom Cole reportedly told a conference meeting today that anybody not donating for next week's Mississippi election "ought to be ashamed of themselves."

Very few of them have given to Mississippi GOP candidate Greg Davis, nor did many of them give to Woody Jenkins in Louisiana. By contrast, new Louisiana Congressman Don Cazayoux (D-LA) was able to raise over $160,000 in direct donations from the House Dems, and he and Mississippi candidate Travis Childers have both been helped immensely by the DCCC's financial advantages.

So reports the Tribune-Star:

TERRE HAUTE -- Indiana State Police swept Democrat presidential candidate Barack Obama's Terre Haute campaign headquarters on Wabash Avenue this afternoon following an alleged call to a WTHI Channel 10 reporter claiming to have placed a bomb there and at six other Indiana locations.

Campaign workers were allowed back inside to continue their voter calling once police determined it was safe.

Hillary's chief delegate hunter, Harold Ickes, claims in an interesting new interview with Time mag that he's bagged some big super-del game for Hillary:

"There are a number of people who have told us they are very pro-Hillary but they have circumstances that they want to wait until those circumstances come into effect before they move."

Look, we've heard media reports again and again that a big bloc of super-dels were about to move to Obama en masse. Though Obama has obviously had a steady stream of them heading his way for months now, and is getting awfully close to tying her in super-del support, none of these big dramatic movements ever materialized.

I'd argue that any promises from Ickes that a number of super-dels will soon move into her camp should be greeted with even more skepticism.

Al Gore did an interview with NPR in which he said some interesting things about the state of the presidential race -- for instance:

"Even though it has gone on much longer than is normal in the age of primaries and caucuses, nevertheless I think the odds are overwhelming that it will tip rather decisively in one way or the other before the convention even meets."

The notion that it could tip "decisively" in Hillary's direction seems counterintuitive to us. The range of possibilities seems more like it ranges from a decisive move of super-dels to Obama on one end of the spectrum to a deadlocked convention and/or a pitched battle over the super-dels on the other.

Gore also said: "As a delegate to the convention I will cast my vote at the proper time. I haven't ruled out making an endorsement... but I haven't been moved to do so."

Also, Mark Halperin has a transcript of more from the interview, as well as some audio of another interesting quote from the interview. Asked about the possibility that party leaders might try to broker some sort of deal where he stepped in as the nominee, he said:

"In a year of remote contingencies, that's as about as remote as you could possibly imagine."

Barack Obama has some good news in the early updates coming out of Indiana. The clerk in Marion county (Indianapolis and the surrounding area) says turnout has been more like a general election than a typical primary.

If it were to occur that the Indianapolis area's turnout was disproportionately high compared to the rest of the state, Barack Obama could potentially make up a lot of ground on Hillary Clinton.

And here's some news about the turnout in North Carolina:

• Turnout is also massively high here, with state officials predicting that the Democratic turnout could reach 50% by the end of the day.

• In North Carolina, 85% of unaffiliated voters have been asking for Democratic ballots.

• Any aspiring "Limbaugh Democrats" who are already registered as Republicans in North Carolina will hit a wall today -- state law allows registered independents to vote in any primary, but voters who are pre-registered in one party can't cross over.

• A note of caution from Avi Zenilman: "Also, if and when raw early exit poll numbers leak, readers are advised to ignore them, and if not that, note that the unweighted numbers have tended to overstate Obama's performance."

Looks like Hillary top adviser Terry McAuliffe is really upping the ante when it comes to Hillary's ability to throw back shots with the best of 'em.

Hillary, of course, famously downed a shot of whiskey in the run-up to the voting in Pennsylvania, and today, with Hillary's efforts to court blue collar voters at full throttle, McAuliffe expanded a bit on Hillary's affection for tossing 'em back...

McAuliffe, asked whether her shot-tossing is phony, replied that "she loves to sit, throw 'em back," adding that "she actually beat John McCain in a shot contest. She's a girl from Illinois who likes to throw 'em down with the rest of us."

Hmmm. A bit of an embellishment? Here's the original anecdote, as reported by The New York Times, that appears to be the basis of this:

Two summers ago, on a Congressional trip to Estonia, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton astonished her traveling companions by suggesting that the group do what one does in the Baltics: hold a vodka-drinking contest.

Delighted, the leader of the delegation, Senator John McCain, quickly agreed. The after-dinner drinks went so well -- memories are a bit hazy on who drank how much -- that Mr. McCain, an Arizona Republican, later told people how unexpectedly engaging he found Mrs. Clinton to be. "One of the guys" was the way he described Mrs. Clinton, a New York Democrat, to some Republican colleagues.

McCain subsequently kinda sorta denied it had happened, though he also did say that "it's been 50 years since I'd been in a drinking game," adding that "she can really hold her liquor."

Unclear whether there's any evidence that she won, though.

You often hear Hillaryland insiders grousing about MSNBC's coverage of the presidential race. They gripe that MSNBC is more unfair to Hillary than even Fox, and that MSNBC has gone to great lengths to boost Obama and damage Hillary.

Last night, MSNBC's Chris Matthews was asked to respond to this charge during a forum held by the Institute of Politics. The Harvard Crimson has this intriguing nugget:

When asked by another audience member how he would respond to the claim that MSNBC officially supports Obama, Matthews responded with typical Hardball wit, "Well, it's not official."

( Via Michael Calderone.)

Forget the presidential race -- there's a big down-ticket primary going on tonight in North Carolina that could serve as a test case for Republican members of Congress who dare to come out against the Iraq War.

The central problem: Come out against the war in a red district, and you risk a primary challenge.

Take a look at Rep. Walter Jones (R-NC), a conservative who now votes with the Democrats on most Iraq matters. Jones has found himself facing an intense primary challenge from county commissioner Joe McLaughlin, whose support for the war could very well land him in Congress in this very red district -- and thus send a serious message to any other incumbent Republicans who might be having doubts about the war.

The campaigns have dueled with wildly different internals polls: McLaughlin released a poll in February showing him down by only 43%-41%, while Jones' campaign put out a poll in March showing him ahead 54%-16%.

With independent voters expected to vote heavily in the contested Democratic presidential primary, McLaughlin is counting on a Republican primary made up of the most conservative voters, and that he can overcome Jones' financial advantage with grassroots spirit. For example, he has won multiple straw polls at local GOP events, and the same pro-war activist base can deliver him a win today.

Another anti-war Republican Congressman, Wayne Gilchrest of Maryland, was defeated for renomination in February over the issue, while Ron Paul easily won renomination in Texas back in March. Tonight's contest could determine which side of the argument gets to claim best two out of three.

Obama hits Hillary on the trail today for her assertion yesterday that OPEC can "no longer be a cartel":

"You say you've been in the White House for eight years, you've had two terms as U.S. Senator and haven't said a word about OPEC and now suddenly you're gonna take it right to OPEC," an exasperated Obama said. "When you've opposed fuel efficiency standards that would actually reduce demand for oil and put OPEC in a bind. That's not being straight with the American people. That's not the kind of politics we believe."

Just as he did with his criticism of the gas tax holiday, Obama again focuses the conversation on his campaign's broader indictment of Hillary's character.

Today is the big day in Indiana and North Carolina, with primaries set to determine whether Barack Obama can end the nomination fight or if Hillary Clinton will be able to sow enough doubts to keep the clock running.

One likely scenario, as we pointed out yesterday, is that Obama could win North Carolina and Clinton take Indiana by similar margins -- by itself a near-wash, but in effect a victory for Obama.

The first polls close tonight in Indiana at 6 p.m. ET, with the the last polls there closing at 7 p.m. ET. Polls close in all of North Carolina at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Late Update: The candidates' schedules are a good indication of where they feel the most confident -- Obama will be in Raleigh for his election night rally, while Clinton will spend the night in Indianapolis.

The final Zogby tracking polls for today's primaries show Barack Obama expanding his lead in North Carolina, and quite possibly building up steam in Indiana, too. The numbers, compared to yesterday:

North Carolina
Obama 51% (+3)
Clinton 37% (-3)

Sample size: 643 likely primary voters, weighted for region, age, race and gender.
Margin of error: ±3.9%

Indiana
Obama 45% (+1)
Clinton 43% (+1)

Sample size: 644 likely primary votes, weighted for region, age, race and gender.
Margin of error: ±3.9%

From Zogby's analysis: "The overall Obama advantage in Indiana -- though statistically insignificant -- comes after another strong day of polling Monday. The one-day total, which comprises about half of the two-day tracking poll sample, saw Obama winning 47% support to Clinton's 41%."

Monday's super-delegate activity shows that the pace of endorsements isn't slowing down ahead of the primaries in Indiana and North Carolina. And what's more, the overall direction isn't good for Hillary Clinton:

• Barack Obama was endorsed by DNC member Kalyn Free of Oklahoma.

• Obama also picked up the support of Maryland state party chair Michael Cryor and vice chair Lauren Glover.

• Obama's three add-on delegates from Illinois -- Chicago Mayor Richard Daley, state House Majority Leader Barbara Flynn, and Cook County Board President Todd Stroger -- were officially named to their posts today. The three were announced last week in order to preempt Clinton's four New York add-ons.

• Hillary Clinton was endorsed by Democrats Abroad super Theresa Morelli, who gets half a vote.

The day's tally, not counting the Illinois add-ons: Obama +3, Clinton +0.5.

According to NBC News, Hillary led 273-258 before Morelli's endorsement. In short, Clinton leads by only about 15 votes in a category where she'll need an overwhelming victory if she's to overcome Obama's practically-certain lead among pledged delegates.

While most polls have shown Barack Obama withstanding the latest Jeremiah Wright controversy, the new AP/Ipsos poll shows Hillary Clinton now taking a strong national lead.

The numbers, compared to last week's poll:

Clinton 47% (+4)
Obama 40% (-6)

Sample size: 514 Democrats and Democratic-leaners.
Margin of error: ± 4.3%

This poll still has some good news for Obama, though: He and Hillary Clinton are both defeating John McCain by similar margins, so Hillary won't be able to take an electability argument away from this:

Obama (D) 46% (+0)
McCain (R) 42% (-2)

Clinton (D) 47% (-3)
McCain (R) 42% (+1)

Sample size: 1,000 adults, weighted for region, age and gender.
Margin of error: ±3.1%

John and Elizabeth Edwards have finally made their endorsement plans -- or lack of them -- official.

On the eve of potentially decisive voting in Indiana and North Carolina, with political tensions at white-hot levels, John and Elizabeth revealed all in an interview with People magazine, of all outlets.

The news in the interview is that they confirmed they will not endorse either candidate in the presidential race, because they are "saving their political capital for their own causes -- his, fighting poverty; hers, fighting for universal health care," reports, um, People mag.

John also shared his thoughts on the pros and cons of Hillary and Obama...

On Clinton: "I like something different about Hillary. I think her tenacity shows a real strength that's inside her."

What doesn't he like about Clinton? "Um, still a lot of the old politics," John Edwards said.

As for Obama, he says: "Sometimes I want to see more substance under the rhetoric."

But he cited two things he likes about the charismatic young senator from Illinois: "One is, I think he really does want to bring about serious change and a different way of doing things. And secondly, I think it's a great symbolic thing to have an African-American who could be president."

At that, Mrs. Edwards rolled her eyes and, gripping the arms of her kitchen chair with some exaggeration, seemed about to lunge from her seat. "What about the great symbolic thing about a woman ..."

"It's important. It's important," her husband said. "I know it."

Anyone else miss their presence on the political stage right about now?

Late Update: I should qualify that question. There's no doubt that Edwards' presence in the presidential race was salutary in many ways. Whatever his flaws, and whatever you think of his sincerity and/or motives, he forced a focus on certain issues that has basically vanished with his departure.

The presence of the Edwardses had a healthy effect on our political discourse, too. There is little doubt that the decisions by Obama and Hillary to appear on Fox would have been far less easy politically if Edwards, who led the way in taking on the wingnut media, had been in the race to call them out for it. And Elizabeth's constant scolding of the political media for its obsession with trivia and addiction to pre-fabricated narratives amplified the liberal media critique in various useful ways -- even if it was partly motivated by a desire to get her husband more attention.

You needn't have been an Edwards supporter to recognize that these contributions were valuable.

A last-minute intra-labor war...

Change to Win, the powerful labor coalition backing Barack Obama, has just put out a scathing statement attacking AFSCME in response to our story below reporting that AFSCME had distributed a pro-Hillary flyer in Indiana that didn't clearly identify AFSCME as the author.

As I reported below, the leaflet concludes by saying: "This message brought to you by your union." So if it fell into the hands of a member of another union, even one supporting Obama, he or she could conclude that his or her own union was behind the pro-Hillary message.

Here's the statement from Change to Win's executive director, Greg Tarpinian...

"It's a shame that the discourse of the Democratic presidential primary campaign has sunk to the point of lying to our union brothers and sisters on the eve of the Indiana primary election. These deplorable and dishonest tactics undermine our democratic process and the hard work of thousands of Change to Win and other union members and volunteers working tirelessly to help make Sen. Barack Obama the 2008 Democratic presidential nominee. We expect these types of deplorable tactics from the McCain campaign, not AFSCME."

Pretty harsh stuff. As I reported below, the director of AFSCME council 62, Dave Warrick, argued that the union wasn't obliged to include the disclaimer, because the piece wasn't sent out as a mass mailing and was intended for distribution to AFSCME members only.

But he conceded it was possible that it could end up in the hands of non-AFSCME members.

The final survey of Indiana from Public Policy Polling (D) shows Barack Obama getting some last-minute momentum in this key state, but with Hillary Clinton still ahead. The results, compared to last week:

Clinton 51% (+1)
Obama 46% (+4)

Sample size: 831 likely primary voters.
Margin of error: ±3.4%

From the pollster's analysis: "Hillary Clinton is probably going to win Indiana. But more than likely it will be by a smaller margin than the one Obama wins by in North Carolina, which means the nomination will be just two states closer to Obama's hands."

So what will happen tomorrow in the Indiana and North Carolina primaries?

If you look at the totality of all the polls thus far, they suggest that in terms of both the pledged del count and popular vote, an Obama win in North Carolina will be nearly canceled out by a corresponding Hillary victory in Indiana -- meaning the whole night could end up being more or less a wash.

This isn't to say that Obama won't come out on top. If the current average of polls holds up, he'll likely net gains in both the pledged del and popular vote count, thanks to North Carolina's greater overall population. But if you project out the size of the victories based on current polls, it looks as if his net gains in both categories could be negligible.

The polls have shown Hillary's overall lead in Indiana to be in the mid-single digits. But some polls suggest that late deciders will break her way, and precedent suggests the same, given that this happened in both Ohio and Pennsylvania. So let's assume a 55%-45% win for Hillary in Indiana.

Meanwhile, Obama leads in North Carolina by almost ten, so let's assume Obama will win that state by a similar margin of 10 points.

If that happens, our calculations suggest that Obama will walk away with a slight edge for the night of roughly 95 pledged delegates to Hillary's 92. That's because Indiana has 72 delegates, which would roughly break down to 40 for Hillary and 32 for Obama. And North Carolina has 115 delegates, which would roughly break down to 63 for Obama and 52 for Hillary.

What about the popular vote? Going by Chuck Todd's projections for the total popular votes in these two states, Obama -- assuming a roughly 10-point margin in both states -- would gain a net popular vote victory for the night of about 60,000 votes.

In short, the night could end with little change in the delegate or popular vote margins between the two Dems. This would allow Hillary to argue that the contest should continue, and enable her to keep sowing doubts with the super-dels by asking why he can't "close the deal."

But this would also bring Obama that much closer to the nomination by making it that much harder for Hillary to ever reach 2,025 delegates -- while bringing himself closer to that magic number.

The latest polls, along with a poll-of-polls bottom line, after the jump.

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Obama goes up in Indiana with a new spot that responds to today's Hillary ad hitting him on the gas tax by implicitly questioning her honesty...

Interestingly, this ad doesn't mention the gas-tax issue. Instead it returns to the Obama campaign's broader indictment of Hillary's character -- the claim that Hillary is a dirty-politicker who can't be trusted. The ad references a recent editorial in The New York Times -- which endorsed Hillary -- that accuses her of taking "the low road."

"We need honest answers," the ad concludes, "and a president we can trust."

This is interesting. Here's a leaflet that I've just obtained that is being distributed in Indiana by AFSCME on behalf of Hillary.

The leaflet, which touts her "leadership" and "experience," doesn't appear to have the name "AFSCME" on it anywhere. At the bottom, it says: "This message brought to you by your union."

Click on the image below to enlarge...

So could this piece end up in the hands of a non-AFSCME member who would then see the "your union" line and think it was from his or her union -- even one supporting Obama?

It's possible, but that's not the intent, says Dave Warrick, the director of AFSCME council 62, which covers Indiana and Kentucky.

Warrick confirmed that the leaflet was AFSCME's, and allowed that the name AFSCME didn't appear. But he said that the union wasn't obliged to include the disclaimer, because the piece wasn't sent out as a mass mailing.

Rather, he said, it is being distributed in person, door-to-door, to AFSCME members in places like Gary, Indianopolis, and Bloomington.

I asked Warrick if it could end up going to non-members. "There's always that possibility. Our data base is not always 100 percent correct," Warrick said. "That happens sometimes. But that's not the intent."

Hillary goes up in Indiana and North Carolina with yet another negative spot hitting Obama for not supporting the gas tax holiday...

"Barack Obama wants you to keep paying; $8 billion in all," the ad's narrator says. "Hillary is the one who gets it."

It quotes a voter saying: "Hillary Clinton is the candidate that is going to fight for working people."

In purely political terms, Hillary's gas tax holiday has never really been about gas tax relief itself. Rather, it's real goal was to implicitly make the case -- by suggesting she would take some kind of action, however dubious on the merits -- that she's the candidate who's in touch with voters' economic distress.

Indeed, Hillary chief strategist Geoff Garin insisted recently that the campaign's internal polling showed that this message was getting through.

Separately, on the conference call earlier today, Hillary spokesperson Howard Wolfson was asked if the campaign would continue hitting the gas tax theme. He said they would for the foreseeable future. So get ready for lots more of this.

Full ad script after the jump.

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SEIU, one of Obama's key labor allies, sent out a hard-hitting, last-minute mailer in Indiana implicitly attacking Hillary on Iraq.

Click on the image to enlarge...

"It isn't just about who will bring them home," the mailer reads. "It's a question of who voted to send them to Iraq in the first place. Barack Obama is the only Democrat who opposed Bush's misguided war from the beginning."

One thing that's interesting about this mailer is that in the Indiana contest, foreign policy issues seemed to recede into the background, displaced by debates over the gas tax and the economy.

By contrast, foreign policy arguments seemed to be in the forefront in the closing days of the Ohio and Pennsylvania contests, particularly after Hillary hit the airwaves with ads questioning Obama's ability to handle national security crises.

There have been no such closing foreign policy debates in Indiana (yet). Indeed, this mail piece hitting Hillary on Iraq was dropped by a third party.

While Hillary Clinton has been able to trim Barack Obama's once-overwhelming lead in North Carolina, it doesn't look like it will be enough, according to a new survey from Public Policy Polling (D).

The numbers, compared to the previous poll from a week ago:

Obama 53% (+2)
Clinton 43% (+4)

Sample size: 870 likely primary voters.
Margin of error: ±3.3%.

From the pollster's analysis: "Hillary Clinton has certainly been able to make inroads as she has contested the state hard, but North Carolina's demographics make this almost an impossible state to win for her."

The Obama campaign has just sent me a newspaper clipping it says shows that Obama publicly favored lifting Federal oversight over the Teamsters union back in 2004.

The Obama camp argues that this shows that The Wall Street Journal overplayed its story today saying that Obama secured the Teamsters' support this year after privately saying that he favored lifting the oversight, which comes in the form of a Federal consent decree that governs the union.

As I noted below, the Hillary campaign hit Obama today on a conference call over the Journal report, pointing out that Obama on Good Morning America said that he "wouldn't make any blanket commitments" on the issue. Hillary spokesperson Phil Singer demanded that Obama reveal his true position.

A May 10, 2004 report in Crain's Chicago Business (via Nexis) says that Obama took the position of supporting lifting the consent decree when he was running for U.S. Senate that year -- thus winning him the Teamsters' support in the general election.

This doesn't explain Obama's claim today that he wouldn't make "blanket commitments" on the issue, and the Hillary campaign will continue pressing him to clarify his position in light of those comments.

But if Obama won the Teamsters' support four years ago partly due to his 2004 public position of support for lifting oversight, it would seem that there may not be as much news value in the Journal's report today than it would first appear. Or so the Obama campaign is arguing, anyway.

More soon.

Late Update: A reader argues that the Crain's article isn't really conclusive on whether he backed it in 2004. I would point out that the Obama campaign is standing behind that interpretation.

Either way, I've posted the entire article after the jump so you can make up your own minds.

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With less than 48 hours to go before the polls close in North Carolina and Indiana, the Hillary campaign has opened up a new front against Obama -- this one concerning a private assertion that the Illinois Senator made to the Teamsters union.

On a conference call with reporters just now, Hillary spokesperson Phil Singer pointed to a report this morning in The Wall Street Journal saying that Obama privately told the Teamsters he backed ending strict federal oversight over the union before winning its support.

The Obama campaign confirmed the story to The Journal. This morning, Obama addressed the story on ABC, saying: "I wouldn't make any blanket commitments. What I've said is we should take a look at what's been happening over the Teamsters and all unions," adding that he wanted organized labor to be able to represent its membership adequately. The rest of his response here.

"One has to wonder what exactly Senator Obama's position is," Singer said on the call. "It would appear as though he's taking a position in private and not telling voters about that view."

The Hillary campaign is clearly hoping to use the story to sow last-minute doubts about Obama's high-mindedness among late-breaking undecided voters. But it's unclear whether it's breaking too late to sink in with the local electorates in Indiana and North Carolina or how damaging the story would really prove.

We'll bring you Obama's response when it's available.

Late Update: The Obama campaign responds by saying that he publicly favored lifting oversight over the Teamsters back in 2004. The Obama camp says that The Journal overplayed the report.

Late Update: Here's the audio from the call:

Although the Republican effort to use Barack Obama's name as a cudgel in red districts didn't work for the Louisiana House race this past weekend, the GOP candidate in the upcoming Mississippi special election thinks it's an issue he can still win on.

Check out this new attack ad against Dem nominee Travis Childers:

"Travis Childers, taking Obama's endorsement is wrong," the announcer says. "Lying about it is worse."

The new USA Today/Gallup poll gives Hillary Clinton the national lead against Barack Obama, diverging from other polls that have shown Obama withstanding the latest problems to come up involving Jeremiah Wright. The numbers, compared to two weeks ago:

Clinton 51% (+11)
Obama 44% (-6)

Sample size: 516 Democrats or Democratic leaners.
Margin of error: ±5%

A caveat: USA Today points out that the separate Gallup tracking poll, taken over the same period but with more respondents and only a three percent margin of error, puts Obama ahead 49%-45%.

The newest Suffolk University poll of Indiana gives Hillary Clinton a single-digit lead here, with a lot now depending on how the undecideds break:

Clinton 49%
Obama 43%

Sample size: 600 likely primary voters.
Margin of error: ±4%.

A key number from the internals: Obama's favorable-unfavorable rating stands at 58%-29%, compared to Clinton's 53%-36% -- a sign that some of the remaining undecideds in this survey could break somewhat for Obama.

His campaign announces that he's picked up the support of Kalyn Free, an at-large member of the Democratic National Committee.

The campaign's super-del tally right now: 258. NBC, meanwhile, puts Hillary's total at 274.

The Obama camp claims that he is now 276 overall delegates away from winning the nomination.

The latest Zogby tracking poll shows Barack Obama's lead in North Carolina holding steady in the high single digits, and unlike other pollsters also gives Obama a narrow but shaky edge in Indiana.

The numbers, compared to yesterday:

North Carolina
Obama 48% (+0)
Clinton 40% (+1)

Sample size: 624 likely primary voters, weighted for region, age, race and gender.
Margin of error: ±4.0%

Indiana
Obama 44% (+1)
Clinton 42% (+1)

Sample size: 636 likely primary voters, weighted for region, age, race and gender.
Margin of error: ±4.0%

From the pollster's analysis: "While Obama holds a small edge in Indiana, Clinton appears to hold at least a small advantage among those who are yet undecided. Among those undecided Indiana voters who said they were leaning toward one candidate or the other, Clinton held an edge."

In a sign that the Senate Republicans could be in danger in even states usually deemed safe for them, a new Rasmussen poll of Texas finds that Sen. John Cornyn (R) could very well have a race on his hands against Democrat Rick Noriega, a state Representative and Iraq War veteran:

Cornyn (R) 47%
Noriega (D) 43%

Sample size: 500 likely voters.
Margin of error: ±4%

Noriega will have his work cut out for him, though -- the latest FEC reports show Noriega with only about $300,000 cash on hand, compared to the incumbent's $8.6 million cash on hand.

In a sign that the negativity in the Democratic race might be ebbing a bit, Hillary Clinton has two new ads for Indiana that don't skewer Barack Obama.

The first ad shows Hillary talking about all the people she's met throughout the state, and then shows some of them talking about the economic problems they've faced:

"America is desperate for economic leadership," this next ad declares. "But we've come back before, and we'll do it again. All it takes is a president who knows how."

The new CBS/New York Times poll suggests that Barack Obama has successfully weathered the recent storm from Jeremiah Wright's re-emergence -- and furthermore, that Hillary Clinton's new signature issue of a gas tax holiday is not a big winner with the public at large.

The primary numbers, compared to the previous poll released four days ago:

Democratic Primary
Obama 50% (+4)
Clinton 38% (+2)

Sample size: 283 Democratic primary voters
Margin of error: ±5%

Another interesting number: A narrow 49% plurality of the total respondents oppose a gas tax holiday, with 45% in favor. Republicans are mostly in favor, Democrats closely divided, and independents overwhelmingly against it. Only 21% of respondents think the candidates pitching are doing so on policy grounds, with 70% saying they are doing it to help themselves politically.

General election numbers available after the jump.

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Obama goes up on the air in Indiana and North Carolina with a third gas tax ad, this one pushing back against Hillary's last-minute ad on Friday hitting him on the issue...

The ad slams the gas tax holiday as "bogus" and a "gimmick," and says that "experts say it'll just boost oil industry profits." The ad also says this:

Clinton aides admit it won't do much for you, but would help her politically.

The Obama campaign says that this is a reference to the following in a recent Washington Post article:

Clinton aides think that even if the measure is a questionable way to reduce gas prices, it allows the candidate to bash oil companies and cast her opponent against an idea that has political appeal.

That's a paraphrase of anonymous quotes, though to my knowledge the Clinton campaign hasn't disavowed this.

I've just obtained a new mailer that the Hillary campaign has dropped in Indiana that attacks Obama for inconsistency on the Second Amendment -- and also reminds voters of the comments Obama made about small town America that created problems for him in the run-up to Pennsylvania.

Click on the image to enlarge:

The mailer says:

And just this month, Barack Obama accused people in rural places and small towns of being "bitter" people who "cling to guns."

Note that the mailer says Obama "accused" folks of this. Here's what Obama said last month:

"You go into some of these small towns in Pennsylvania, and like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing's replaced them," Obama said. "And they fell through the Clinton Administration, and the Bush Administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not. And it's not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations."

The Hillary mailer, in selectively quoting from this, omitted all of Obama's references to people's economic circumstances, leaving the misleading impression that all Obama did was "accuse" rural and small-town Americans of being "bitter" people who "cling to guns."

Late Update: The mailer says Obama made the small town comments "this month," as opposed to last, meaning it could have been drafted in late April, which of course ended only a few days ago.

This morning's Zogby tracking polls give Barack Obama a steady lead of nine points in North Carolina, and even a slight two-point edge in Indiana, within the margin of error there.

The numbers, compared to yesterday:

North Carolina
Obama 48% (+2)
Clinton 39% (+2)

Sample size: 600 likely primary voters, weighted for region, age, race and gender.
Margin of error: ±4.1%

Indiana
Obama 43% (+0)
Clinton 41% (-1)

Sample size: 595 likely primary voters, weighted for region, age, race and gender.
Margin of error: ±4.1%

On Meet the Press, Obama was asked to respond to Hillary's recent tough talk towards Iran -- her claim that if Iran considered attacking Israel, "we would be able to totally obliterate them."

"It's not the language we need right now," Obama replied. "I think it's language that's reflective of George Bush."

Obama added that under Bush we have had a foreign policy of "bluster and saber rattling and tough talk" that Hillary's language echoed.

Asked by Russert how he would respond to Iran, Obama said: "Israel is an ally of ours," adding that "there's no doubt that we [would] act forcefully against Iran."

But he returned to his earlier point: "It is important that we use language that sends a signal to the world community that we're shifting [away] from cowboy diplomacy."

In my view, the Obama campaign has, in general, been a bit reductive with its suggestions that Hillary basically represents a continuation of Bush on foreign policy (though Hillary's tough Iran talk certainly does make it easier to simplify matters in this fashion).

Either way, Obama's willingness to condemn Hillary's "obliterate Iran" talk in these terms reminds us yet again of his larger political project here. Obama is trying to redefine "tough" -- he's trying to change the way foreign policy is talked about in this country, in a way that Hillary isn't.

Joe Andrew, the former DNC chair who gave Obama a big boost by switching to him, just pumped up expectations for Obama to the popping point by predicting on Fox that he'd win both Indiana and North Carolina.

The Clinton campaign was quick to blast video of the moment out to reporters....

"Tough races that Obama is going to win," Andrew said, adding: "I think he's going to win both."

Keep in mind, however, that Hillary, too, inflated expectations for herself to an equally lofty level, promising that North Carolina will be a "game changer."

Separately, it's really hard to imagine that all this "expectations game" playing -- or, in this case, the failure to play it -- means anything to actual voters. But it's something that super-delegates, major donors and other insiders seem to follow obsessively for some reason.