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SurveyUSA: Obama Ahead By 10 Points In Oregon Primary
A new SurveyUSA poll of Oregon — the first major poll for this May 20 primary — shows Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton by a significant margin. The numbers: Obama 52%, Clinton 42%.
The Oregon primary will be held on the same day as the Kentucky primary, where another poll has Clinton way ahead.
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Okay, is there anyone ANYWHERE that is surprised by this poll?
April 7, 2008 10:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes we can!
April 7, 2008 10:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
And we will! ;)
April 7, 2008 11:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
:)
April 7, 2008 11:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I live in Oregon, and if anyone thought different I tell you now: Obama will win Oregon by a lot more than 10 points.
April 7, 2008 11:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
The next thing you'll be telling me is that they're tied in Pennsylvania and he's ahead in NC. Well, whatever states he wins don't matter.
April 7, 2008 11:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
That is a credible poll but check out what the bias has done to progressive blogs:
http://allspinzone.com/wp/2008/04/01/candidate-war-impact-on-progressive-blogs/
Damn shame.
April 7, 2008 11:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here, let me try to play along.
Hillary may not have made up that story about the girl (and gotalife, even you noticed that I was not buying that one, back when I sported my troll avatar).
But look at how awful Mark Penn's combover is:
http://www.mediabistro.com/prnewser/original/Horowitz-MarkPenn1V.jpg
Damn Shame
April 7, 2008 11:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
To be a Clinton blogger, adviser or supporter in the progressive blogosphere is to be hated.
That is a damn shame.
April 7, 2008 11:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
A little meditation on why that might be would do you good.
April 8, 2008 2:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
ummm, why might that be? Could it be because so many Obama supporters can't see any fault in their candidate and any good in his opposition. That they leap on anything and everything. That they take the unAmerican position that Clinton is guilty until proven innocent before there's even an allegation - as in the inane let's-pore-through-her-taxes-and find -what-she-is-hiding buffoonery.
Sooner or later, people want to talk to mature adults, not bumptious children.
April 9, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary might not have made the story up, but it provides a disquieting window on how she expects the health care reform debate to play out. I work in this field and let me tell you that a series of anecdotes, however heart wrenching, is not going to get the job done. She tried this schtick in 1994 and it didn't work. The rationalization of the entrenched interests runs very deep and the deaths of a few inconsequential people aren't going to deter their lobbyists one bit. And most importantly: ANY weakness in the truth of the anecdote will be exploited like nobody's business to further their rationalizations. This is and has been my biggest fear regarding Hillary, that she doesn't have a strategic plan for achieving her goals.
April 8, 2008 9:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
You mean stellar anecdotes like this one from Barack Obama:
"And Ashley said that when she was nine years old, her mother got cancer. And because she had to miss days of work, she was let go and lost her health care. They had to file for bankruptcy, and that's when Ashley decided that she had to do something to help her mom.
She knew that food was one of their most expensive costs, and so Ashley convinced her mother that what she really liked and really wanted to eat more than anything else was mustard and relish sandwiches. Because that was the cheapest way to eat. She did this for a year until her mom got better.
****
Let's investigate the truth or falesness of anecdotes on both sides, shall we. First - anyone eating nothing but mustard and relish sandwiches would likely be eligible for food stamp assistance. Second - if that's all you ate for year, you'd be in the hospital for sure.
Secondly criticize Hillary all you want, but at the very least admit that she is truly a policy wonk with very clear ideas about how to solve the very real problems that exist today.
healthcare - she has a truly universal plan
foreclosures - she is much more aggressive in her plan with direct assistance for homeowners unlike Obama and costs it out as well
economic issues - again Hillary is very strategic.
The whole criticism of her campaign style is that she's too specific, too strategic and people zone out. Now you want to criticize her for trying to take an individual story to illustrate the larger issues.
The intellectual honesty and consistency is lacking.
April 8, 2008 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
The world is closing in. Look what HIllary's impending ouster from the race has done to her camp's grip on reality.
She's losing supers:
http://www.dailykos .com/story/2008/4/7/01311/03527/771/491451
She's lost:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/7/10533/63574/492/487686
Blame the media.
April 7, 2008 11:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, and you're really a part of the solution. Sheesh.
April 8, 2008 12:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
What a fantastic read, Goatlife. Indeed, who could imagine traffic declining in the wake of the last major primary as we headed into to pre-Penn valley? And that sites with 1Mil+ visitors might see more of a drop-off in that cycle than sites with 80k viewers. Really superb amateur analytics, but of course, that's more than pointed out in the comments on your own frickin' link.
Is this that hard-hitting expose you claimed to be writing? Damn Shame is right.
April 8, 2008 8:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah he will win by a bigger margin then 10
April 7, 2008 11:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
It proves what I've been seeing in Eugene, OR. I have yet to see a Hillary bumper sticker, but I've seen scores for Obama. Not to mention that he drew 12,000, 9000 inside the arena were the University of Oregon plays and 3000 outside, when he came and she only manages 2500 in a high school gym.
This said, I should add polls have indicted since November that Obama wins against McCain here while Hillary loses. Oregon isn't blue, it's a deeply purple swing state. We have a lot of Independents here who will not vote for her. I did manage to convince the love of my life to switch from Republican to Democrat to be able to vote for Obama in May.
April 8, 2008 12:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama drew 12,000 on a weekday. People blew off school and work for the chance to see him. Clinton was in Portland on a Saturday and got a smaller crowd. To be fair, there was an overflow crowd outside the school where she spoke, but not nearly as many as at the Obama appearance.
April 8, 2008 12:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nah, let's face it, most Obomites don't have jobs. They're looking for a big payoff from him at the expense of working Americans. That's the real story behind the weekday crowds.
April 8, 2008 12:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, there was a lot of bartering with food stamps. It was cool!! I got a charm bracelet and two really funky rocks!
Actually, it was early, so there was a lot of latte sipping (I had double mocha). They weren't offered at a jobless friendly price.
April 8, 2008 1:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
And unbeknownst to most, you can actually buy birkenstocks and priuses with foodstamps these days...
April 8, 2008 9:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
I thought we were supposed to be rich elitists? Now we're indigent and jobless? Make up your minds, trolls - I'd like to pigeonholed properly, please.
April 8, 2008 1:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Total aside, but i can almost always read your posts in Huey's voice, and you continue to do his spirit great justice :)
April 8, 2008 8:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nah, fogu. We just happen to have salaried jobs, by and large, so taking a blow-off sick day is no big deal. It's that higher educated, voter demographic; don't ya know! ;-)
April 8, 2008 2:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's easy in the Willamette Valley to get the impression that Barack Obama will win Oregon by an obscene margin. But, of course, there's also Eastern Oregon... and Southern Oregon... I think it's amazing how similar this race between two Democrats is to a race between a Democrat and Republican.
That having been said, I'll go with Barack Obama by 15; Maybe 20, if he makes a few strategic stops in the state.
20 percent is still pretty obscene, but in Portland it feels like he'd win with 80% of the vote.
April 8, 2008 12:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Except Obama out polls Clinton outside of the Portland metro according to SurveyUSA's poll.
April 8, 2008 4:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Residing in Portland, you would know that the liberal Willamette Valley is a large area that extends far south of the Portland metropolitan area, and includes Eugene, a university town that's about a far left as it gets in this country.
April 8, 2008 5:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Just keep moving those goalposts right on back to Puerto Rico
April 8, 2008 12:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why Puerto Rico?
Montana and South Dakota are the last races, not PR.
April 8, 2008 4:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly-Hillary "packed" a high school gym (though I thought I saw empty seats in the pix-hmmm)--vs. frickin' Memorial Coliseum for Obama. Also, there was a slight glitch in that the "tickets" for the Obama rally sold out almost immediately (eBay and scalping insanity ensued) but they should have probably given out another several thousand tix to account for no-shows. Many folks assumed it would be impossible to get in so gave up.
To give just one example--my boss and I each scored a ticket online then it sold out. So we told our spouses sorry no go. But if there had been more tickets, there would have been twice as many in our party.
What I'm getting at is, if the Obama campaign had released another several thousand tickets, the place would have had 13,000 plus a huge overflow. Geeze, I arrived at the coliseum at 6 am and there was already a huge and cheerful crowd in 10 lines. Not to criticize, just to underscore the strength of the enthusiasm for Obama here in Portland.
When I went out canvassing for Obama this weekend, the teensy-sample "results" were--63% strong or lean Obama, 27% undecided and just 11% strong or lean Hillary. FWIW.
April 8, 2008 1:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Where were you canvassing?
April 8, 2008 4:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually I am surprised it is only 10 pts. Then again, Obama wasn't polling all that far ahead in WA and he blugeoned her there. Granted it was a caucus so of course it didn't count but still, I would think Obama is similarly under polling in OR.
April 8, 2008 2:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama won the WA primary as well, if memory serves.
April 8, 2008 11:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
States that start with O and end with N do not count -- unless of course Hillary wins in that state.
April 8, 2008 3:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
How sad. I was once a HRC supporter. Unfortunately, she has demonstrated why she is the loser.
April 8, 2008 5:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Do you all recognize that your nickname and your postings can be googled and your personal profile revealed? Write to TPM and ask for this breach of privacy to be stopped.
April 8, 2008 6:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Race will not last until Oregon. NC the final frontier....
April 8, 2008 7:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here here. We're shutting this pitiful circus down - we're all well aware we must make up for the Heels embarrassing flub in the Final Four and are rising to the task with great pride, as the vote will soon reveal. :)
Enthusiasm for Obama around the state is unreal - it's great to see so many people smiling around here again.
April 8, 2008 8:15 AM | Reply | Permalink