And this just in - another big endorsement for Hillary today:
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/04/new-clinton-endorsement-today.php

If Hillary wins NC, its over for Barry-O. I doubt it's down to 5% but I do love the poll.

So when Hillary wins PA with 9 points it is a huge victory but if somehow Obama wins NC by only 9 points it s a huge victory for her ?
I see. Logic.

You know, none of this should have happened. It has no bearing on anything, it's personal -

It started with a dishonest sound byte.

I fucking hate every single media outlet in this country.

train wreck train wreck train wreck train wreck train wreck train wreck train wreck train wreck train wreck train wreck train wreck train wreck train wreck
drop out drop out drop out drop out drop out drop out drop out drop out drop out drop out drop out drop out drop out drop out drop out drop out drop out drop out drop out drop out drop out drop out drop out drop out drop out drop out drop out drop out

?now are you convinced?

How is HRC gaining in NC? What is up with that? Anyone?

This is the only poll showing such a small margin...it is clearly not correct.

But why is HRC getting the oldest voters? Is race an issue with this group? I am perplexed.

Otherwise, a narrow victory of even a Hillary upset victory would heavily persuade super-delegates of Clinton's case that Obama is really a weak candidate.

Umm, no, Eric. It might persuade some bloggers, though.

The tide that turned is now tsunami .

Obama is getting run over by Wright.

Don't forget to but Wright's upcoming book on change.

Please please pleas keep talking this outlier poll...shout it from the roof tops! Play it on all the news channels.

Because when Obama wins by 10 to 15 pts, it'll be a HUGE turnaround.

Those in the know, know Obama is polling at least 12 pts ahead of Clinton in NC.

Greg Sargent, How about a Big Headline:

HILLARY AHEAD OF OBAMA NATIONALLY IN LATEST GALLUP TRACKING-POLL

The affair is over with Obama. Dems want to win in Nov. and, with all of Clinton's baggage, at least you know what you are getting.

I'm not saying I agree but, who votes most? Whites. African-Americans and students will not win an election. Hopefully, they will still support Clinton if she gets the nod.

What I'm afraid of is African Americans ditching the party...

Actually, Hillary must win all remaining states by 25%, so even a small victory in NC will only be a small insignificant cut into Obama's delegates.

Nothing at this point can give her the nomination.

Yes, and right alongside that big headline about the statistically insignificant Clinton lead in the Gallup tracking poll, let's run a bigger headline about Obama's lead in the Rasmussen poll, which is outside the margin of error.

These polls are stupid, and monitoring them day by day for a movement of a point (which is just random noise, anyway) is even dumber.

If there's one takeaway from the Gallup poll, it's that the margin between the candidates may go up and down, but Hillary's support barely moves. When was the last time she was over 50 percent? All the movement is in Obama's numbers. That tells you that while there are still voters unsure about him, but they're pretty much settled on how they feel about Hillary. She's got dedicated support, no question about it, but it's never going to get her a majority.

The 57/39 split sounds about right (early voting numbers). However, there is no freaking way that election day voting would bring the margin down to 49/44 overall. You would have to assume few people voting early (not true), only black people are voting early (not true), and/or something like an 80/20 white margin on election day (not possible).

And no way will Obama end up with 30% white support. 35% is his absolute floor with white voters in NC.

Clinton supporters (along with, of course, Republicans) are really trying to play up this Wright ordeal without coming out and saying what they really mean: that they hate n*ggers. Just come out and say it, Clinton supporters! Come out from under your pathetic, racist sheets and tell the world how you really feel.

Say it. You'll feel better once you do. Hillary should do the same, along with Bill, once he takes his prick out of his latest conquest.

SAY IT, RACISTS! YOU HATE THEM! SAY IT!!!!

"North Carolina is widely seen as a state that Obama not only has to win, but has to win big."

This is the first time I've heard he must "win big." You're out-mainstreaming Cokie roberts, Eric. Nice.

"narrow victory of even a Hillary upset victory would heavily persuade super-delegates of Clinton's case that Obama is really a weak candidate."

That would explain why the SDs have still been coming out 3 or 4 to 1 for Obama since PA.

You really need to leave the editorializing to someone else, because you don't know what the fuck you're talking about.

For the record, I agree completely that it would be a disaster of the highest order for Obama to lose either NC or OR.

But neither one will happen. I can certainly promise that it will NEVER happen in NC.

Come on, stop playing dumb, people. A somewhat loud, often opinionated black man scares many white Americans. Don't deny this. Once you accept that this is a fact, try and come up with a reason why this does scare so many. Good luck coming to any other conclusion.

No what you are doing is looking at everyone else and seeing yourself multiplied -

You're dead wrong with that "many" shit.

If you don't think people in the south aren't used to somewhat loud, often opinionated African Americans, then you know absolutely nothing.

Dude, there is no there there. I can promise you that.

How many Obama supporters would write in Obama in the general election if this turns ugly? I don't understand people saying they won't vote or they would vote for McCain if Clinton robs this process. If all the Obama supporters wrote in his name, he might win, or at least we would be able to vote our conscience. Does anyone know how write-ins work? Not to sound pessimistic here, but with the Clintons, anything is possible.

Sen. Clinton has won a significant percentage of all the states that are safe Democrats. Sen. Clinton has won almost every swing state that Democrats need to win the White House. Sen. Clinton has won these states often by large margins.

Sen. Clinton has high negatives by Republicans that won't vote for and has always had high positives among Democrats. (Sen. Clinton has more votes from Democrats than Sen. Obama).

How is Sen. Clinton not electable?

She has "lost" the south, the Middle West/Northwest, and to more Republicans in Democratic primaries than Sen. Obama.

Help?

Drats... the rest of my post got deleted somehow...Sorry. Should read:

...connect with the "bubbas" because the media has made it so.

Eric, unless you have more info than what's in that link, it doesn't say 5% is within the margin of error (that would be a larger margin of error than we've been seeing). It only says that with respect to the subgroup of unaffiliated voters.

From a friend:

Fighting Despair

29 Apr 2008 10:56 am

So many readers seem to be feeling it. I have too. But remember what we're dealing with here: last fall, no one gave Obama a chance. It was always a very long shot. When I wrote that Obama piece, Clinton was ahead by at least 20 points and it wasn't budging a jot. Every pundit also expected the classic Clinton-Giuliani set-up for 2008: the perfect boomer red-blue battle. It didn't happen. The Republicans, from a smaller and demoralized base, gave us McCain. And the Clintons have lost the mathematical chance of winning the nomination by any fair means. The change has already happened.

Obama is a freshman senator; he is 46 years old; he is African-American; he is a liberal - even if he is very gifted in talking to conservatives. He has taken on the biggest brand and machine in American politics, the Clintons, and won. If you didn't think this would be an uphill struggle, you've been deluded. Of course, race will not go away; it will come back again and again and again. Of course, generational resistance will not go away: Obama is a big leap for the over 50s for all sorts of reasons. Of course, the usual Rovian tactics will be used against him - brutally. He does represent real change - culturally, politically, and in terms of global politics. Politicians who represent real change do not win easily; they usually require a real crisis to rise. That's how RFK and MLK emerged - in crisis, after being smeared (sometimes with a grain of truth) and finally assassinated. That's how Reagan and Thatcher emerged. We forget how their chances were considered flimsy for so long.

Obama is still in this; and the Wright fiasco gives him a chance to remove this cloud and address it again. He has the most votes, the most states, the most money, the most new voters and the most delegates and the most Senators on his side. This is no time for a failure of nerve - on the part of the Obama team or his supporters.

The only way past this is through it. And it's not just up to Obama; it's up to those of us who see him as a vehicle for real change.