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SurveyUSA: Hillary Ahead By 9 Points In Indiana Primary

A new SurveyUSA poll of Indiana, the first public poll of the state since mid-February, gives Hillary Clinton the lead: Clinton 52%, Obama 43%. A Hillary win here — perhaps the only state left that doesn't look like obviously favorable turf to one candidate or the other — could give her a strong footing to keep going forward with the campaign.

From the internals: Clinton leads 57%-40% with women, and is ahead 48%-46% among men. She leads 56%-37% among voters age 50 or above, and has a one-point lead among voters under 50. Among whites, it's Hillary 58%-37%, and Obama wins 79%-21% with black voters.


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Indiana is far, far away.

Indeed it is. Obama's starting to chip away at her lead in Pa, and he hasn't yet focused on Indiana in the same way.

Rasmussen says her lead in PA is down to 5 points. Whatever that means. But my sense here is that it's definitely the way things are trending, whatever the exact number might be.

It'll be the same in Indiana, but it's a matter of first things first.

Rasmussen: Rasmussen on PA tracking numbers

Indiana will be harder for Obama than Pennsylvania. For one thing, Indiana is a very Conservative state. It has some areas that are KKK today. And if Hillary can sneak by in Pennsylvania, the focus will be there, and the song of her "comeback" will be sung. (Never mind that Pennsylvania should be her territory and Obama will have to work hard to come close there.)
I think that if Obama pours it on in PA he might pull it off there. Hillary's new found best friend, Ricchard Mellon Scaife, that great librul!, will be working overtime to sell Hillary there. (But if one wanted to be nasty with Ms Nasty, all one would have to do is bring out those old things her new best friend said about her before. You can bet the Republicans would! But fortunately, they won't have the chance. North Carolina will seal Hillary's doom.)

Obama should campaign more in Indiana. I think the current Indiana poll reflects the Clintons campaigning on that weird Dygnus day or something like that. There was a lot of media attention to them.

First Hillary fought of Snipers at Tuzla.

This week she claims that she is Rocky Balboa.

I predict:

She will soon travel to South Bend and call on them to win one for her as The Gipper!.


Hillary has gone around the bend. Totally delusional and in dire need of long term rest and isolation.

Hillary is Touchdown Jesus, the warrior-queen of Tuzla that taught Larry Bird how to drain 3-pointers.

Hoosier-Hillary '08. Indiana counts. Maybe.

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And this comment, ladies and gentlemen, is why the internets are fabulous.

Thanks for the imagery...

"could give her the footing she needs to keep going forward with the campaign."

Fascinating:

If she loses badly, she changes the narrative -- the states she loses doesn't matter, she refuses to bow out, she'll keep going until Denver!

If she wins, it's more impetus to keep on going. Even though she can't win and won't win.

and yet she still can't win the nomination. damn.

How would a 9% win give her the footing she needs to keep going? There is nothing left after that...if she doesn't dominate Pennsylvania and every other race between now and the end it is over, period.

Who gives a shit if she did win Indiana? Seriously, it doesn't matter, that is how far behind she is.

Obama will be campaigning in Indiana, and Hillary will not win there. Indiana is a state that doesn't count. It only has three consonants in its name, and no "L's". It has two I's and two A's. They cancel each other out. The New Clinton Math says this state will simply not count until it must count, and by then it will be too late to count.

And there is the baseline. I'm happy to at least get some read on what the field looks like in the state. As someone mentioned above, there is a long way to go, and I think we have yet to see Clinton expand here lead from this far out.

One point of disagreement on the idea that this would give Clinton "a strong footing to keep going forward with the campaign." No doubt she would argue that, but as has been shown ad nauseum, she needs to start racking up a lot more delegates than she would from this kind of win.

Don't worry, I'll fix it. I am going to Indy this weekend to register voters and canvass.

Thats fabulous! Will you let us know how it goes?

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Thank you, baristaberry. And "may the blessings of Elves and Men and all free folk go with you," as Elrond told Frodo :)

Thanks Berry. I knew we could count on you. :)

Where in IN are you going? I was planning to go to IN as well (Indianapolis). Do you maybe want to carpool?

I work for the City of Maryland Heights, if you want to give me a call tomorrow about carpooling.

The city of Maryland Heights needs a barista?

Well yeah, we really could use one. ;) I took that as my email addy back in the day, when I was a Starbucks barista, before I found a job in my field. I still use it for a lot of usernames because it's fairly unique. But they know me as Sara Berry at the city.

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Good luck, brother.

Clinton may well win Indiana, though I'd guess it would be closer to 5 points than 10, but if Obama only wins black voters 79-21, I'll eat my own pants. With mustard.

79-21? Please.

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You're on.

I'm wondering about the impact of the Wright furore on the African-American vote. I thought after Obama's speech he'd have sewn it up, but now I'm wondering. He said on The View that had Wright not been retiring he would have left the church.
I'm wondering what the community will have made of that.
I'm also wondering if it's only coincidence that since the View interview, Wright's come out of hiding and has been given a rapturous welcome in his Chicago church (as well as one in Atlanta).
Im thinking maybe there are now some bruised feelings in the African American community. It's a long way from `I could no more disown Rev WRight than...` and `If he hadn't been retiring I would have left the church.`

"perhaps the only state left that doesn't look like obviously favorable turf to one candidate or the other"

More clear bias from Eric and TPM.

The last SurveyUSA poll of NC had Obama winning by only 8. And yet that one is obviously favorable to him, while this one isn't to Clinton? Right.

Obama needs a bus tour through Indiana. When people see him they like him. He's incredibly charming.

In a word, a nine point lead in Indiana for Hillary is extremely surmountable. And Indiana is a LONG ways away.

That was my thinking too. There is nowhere (nowhere) that she has won by the same percentage by which she lead a month out. If she is only 9 pts ahead at this stage in the game, then IN looks ripe for the picking.

Would love to. I am staying with my best friend in Indianapolis (technically Zionsville), but I'd love the company on the drive. I'm planning to leave Friday (probably mid-morning) and come back Sunday afternoon.

When he gets here his numbers will be better but I, for the life of me, can't figure out why he has let her get a jump on him here. Its nice to have an ad, but its not enough.

He was campaigning in Indy before she set foot there, basically to undermine her narrative that PA was the next huge battleground. He forced her to respond by chasing him into NC and Indiana, and now he's whittling away her lead in PA.

He's basically got Hillary responding to his lead, regardless of what narrative the press wants to push. He knows what he's doing, and he's got plenty of time to do it in. I'm not worried at all.

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As others have pointed out, he has already been in IN before, and is now currently on the air with ads in IN.

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Hillary's big problem now is that she's a big fat liar. Everything she says will be scrutinized in that light. Her Bosnia lie has done massive damage to her campaign.

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Don't worry, I'll fix it. I am going to Indy this weekend to register voters and canvass.


(-.-)(_ _)(-.-) - I bow in your general direction.

Thanks.

very disapointed....though 72% of blacks CANT be right

funny how one poll on indiana can release the hounds of the underworld. i am sure hillary would apologize to each one of you poor obama supporters if she had time, but she does not. cry me a river

these will change, we just opened field offices in many cities around the state this weekend and so persuasion hasnt really begun yet.

Excellent!!

Hillary's got it about sewed up for sure now!!

Step Off Obama!

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Sewed up?

Mathematically all but eliminated and she has it sewn up?

Comical.

Though I see you still have your racist avatar on.

ah there you are again you RACIST ! My lovely black coat just drives you nuts keith olbermann.

LOL LOL LOLLLOLLOLOLLLLLLL

Honestly, I'm really not sure sometimes whether you're an actual Hillary supporter or a more subtle version of IDIOTIC.

Don't drag poor idiotic into the same train of thought as that trainwreck Rae K!!

though 72% of blacks CANT be right


If he wins the African-American vote 89-11 and the other internals from this poll remain constant (a big if given that the primary is five weeks away), Obama would only be behind by about six.

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Oh, Indiana folk are just starting to pay attention. Just this morning, my friend from rural Indiana was visiting and asked how she could find Obama bumper stickers. I gave her the one extra I had, which she gladly accepted.
An hour later, I got a phone call from an Obama volunteer office informing me of the upcoming ground canvassing to be coordinated in Indiana.
No worries, folks.


Unfortunately Obama doesn't do as well in the elections as he does in the polls.

A hidden bias comes out when people vote in private.

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Uh, that hasn't always been the case. Not sure if you're paying attention, but that "hidden bias" has him well in the lead. Yes, that bias exists - certainly - but I have faith that it won't stop him from getting the nom.

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What're you talking about?

A hidden bias comes out when people vote in private? Like in Wisconsin? Connecticut? Virginia? Maryland? Etc, etc, etc?

Never mind. Those states (i.e., the ones Clinton wasn't able to win) don't count, right?

Unfortunately Obama doesn't do as well in the elections as he does in the polls.

Indeed not. He frequently does even better in the elections than he does in the polls. He was only ahead by about 12 pts in the last few days before SC, but he won by 28.9 pts. He was only ahead by 18 pts in the last few days before VA, but he won there by 28 pts. He was only ahead by 4.3 pts in the lead up to WI, but he won that state by 17.4. He was only ahead by 18 pts in GA in the last few days before the vote, but he won by 35 pts. He was actually behind by 5.7 pts in MO shortly before the election, but then went on to win the state by 1.2 pts. In other words, the polls quite regularly undercount his support by ~10 pts.

Please, however, do not take my word for it. Go over to Real Clear Politics and look up all of these results (and more) for yourself. It makes for rather impressive reading.

indiana is offset by north carolina
kentucky is offset by oregon
puerto rico is offset by montana/south dakota
rest is about even or small

and his numbers always improve with time

she's toast

Brother (Sister?), Indiana will need no offsetting. Call it hubris, call it clairevoyance, call it what you will but I am confidently predicting that Obama will win IN, so there will be nothing he needs to offset.

Take a close look at the map folks. Pay particular attention to the South side of Chicago. Now let your eyes wander down the lake front, just a tiny little bit. You are in Northern Indiana. That is Obama country, all the way down to Indianapolis. The University towns around Purdue and Notre Dame will also be strong for him. He should be able to hold his own against Hillary in that State. I expect that Hillary will get the rural, and Southern votes, but Obama will run strong in the rest of the population.

That is exactly my thinking as well (although you forgot to mention the college towns of Bloomington and Terre Haute).

I agree. Also, his internals show him winning Indiana by 7 points. When have they been wrong NOT in their favor?

I also think he'll do well in Columbus (where I'm from).

Has there been a state where Hillary has actually improved her numbers when going head to head with Obama? He cut her lead by 16 in Ohio. She BARELY hung on to Texas. Where has she actually IMPROVED her numbers before going in - when campaigning directly against him?

Woohoo! Go Clemson! :)

Wow, Steve...must be lonely for you in Seattle. Can't say I know another Hillary supporter out here. Oh wait, there was that one woman at the caucus...

Because of list-serve issue on Obama's website, it is really important that there is a lot of on-the-ground organizing, talking to voters, personally emailing people you know in those states, registering votes, knowing the issues, knowing Obama's positions etc.

There must be momentum etc. Everyone should get involved, making phone calls etc. Obama needs to work it!

Good thing he's coming here this weekend to campaign. Most Hoosiers I know love Obama, so I imagine this number will change. :)

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Great question, tiigerrick. Wonder if any Hillary campers will answer to your very salient point?

Evening.

A very good news from PA...

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/01/pa-jewish-leaders-praise-obama-in-letter/

Pa. Jewish Leaders Praise Obama in Letter
By ARIEL ALEXOVICH
Hillary Rodham Clinton might have the endorsement of two of the top Jewish names in Pennsylvania politics — Governor Ed Rendell and Rep. Allyson Schwartz of Philadelphia — but 70 other leading Jewish professionals from the Keystone State would rather see Barack Obama at the top of the Democratic ticket.

Josh Shapiro, the deputy speaker of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives, drafted an open letter to the state’s Jewish community on behalf of Mr. Obama, the candidate who boasts what Mr. Shapiro calls a “100 percent voting record on Israel issues.”

In an interview, Mr. Shapiro said it’s time to, “as Jews, stand up and say how much we admire Senator Obama for condemning the words of his pastor and making sure he is Israel’s ally in the Middle East.”

The letter, which can be found online here at the Jewish news service JTA, praises Senator Obama at length for his recent speech on race and argues that he shouldn’t be held accountable for incendiary remarks made by his former pastor, Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr.

While we are profoundly disturbed by the unpatriotic, bigoted and anti-Semitic comments of the retired pastor of Senator Obama’s church, we are moved that Barack stood up at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia earlier this month, and “condemned in unequivocal terms the statements of Reverend Wright” and expressed his own views on issues near and dear to the heart and soul of the Jewish community.

Specifically, in repudiating the remarks of his former pastor, Senator Obama said Reverend Wright “expressed a profoundly distorted view of this country…a view that sees the conflicts in the Middle East as rooted primarily in the actions of stalwart allies like Israel, instead of emanating from the perverse and hateful ideologies of radical Islam.”

“We respectfully ask that you stand with Senator Barack Obama and vote for him on April 22,” the letter ends.

Henri Barkey, chairman of the international relations program at Lehigh University in Bethlehem, Pa., is an unpaid foreign policy adviser to the Obama campaign who affixed his signature to the letter. Senator Obama has been “misrepresented” by his association with Reverend Wright, Mr. Barkey said, and Jewish people should hear the truth about Mr. Obama’s pro-Israel policies from fellow Jewish people.

“This is how American politics can get — very dirty and personal,” Mr. Barkey said. “My sense in this day and age is you don’t let anything fester. You set the record straight, and perhaps that should have been done earlier. When you don’t respond quicker, people assume it’s true.”

Please forward to every one...


Don't forget that Indiana is the birthplace of the KKK as a political movement - Nobelsville, I believe. When I was working out there, it was still a very segregated kinda place for being in the midwest.

Come on now -- bad day for Obama. And a surprise. Down 11 in Indy. Gallup back down to 3. Rasmussen back down to 1.

Why the heck can't he put away Ma Scorpion???

Living next door in IL, I'd like to offer a rundown of the demo of my neighbor.
Northwest: Basically a suburb of Chicago. Very heavy AA population. Edge to BO.
Northeast: Center is South Bend but since most of the students are from out of state, can't help much. Not a great college town either. The other main industry is tourism from the weekenders from Chicago. There is a Bubba pop here. Slight edge to BO.
CentralNorth: All areas north of Indy. Very rural and home to the Bubba. Purdue U is here but not as much help since it's a heavy engineering school and not as political as a Lib Arts. Slight edge to HRC.
CentralSouth: Indy isn't a city as much as it is a conglomeration of suburbs. This will be the battleground. Bloomington is home to IU and a huge BO base. Edge to BO
South: Bubba country. HRC's base. Terre Haute hardly counts as a college town. Edge HRC.

In all, it will be a battle but the good news is, BO doesn't have to worry about 1/3 of the state since it's very much for him. He'll have time to work on the battleground and HRC's Bubbas.

Who cares about Indiana? Lets make sure Pennsylvania goes into the Obama column. Actually, lets make sure that should Clinton win PA, it sucks the financial lifeblood (or what is left of it after stiffing the little vendors) out of her campaign.

I'm going to Philly to motivate voters on the 12th, I'd be estatic for Clinton to win a Pyrrhic victory of >7 points.

A series of double digit victories in Pennsylvania, Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky, and Puerto Rico would be pretty forceful evidence against Obama's claims to the nomination. Add the struggle over Florida and Michigan --which Obama implicitly concedes, in virtue of his passive-aggressive resistance to either a revote or seating them as originally voted, that he cannot carry -- and his case is on life support. If Hillary were to have a surge and squeak out a narrow victory in North Carolina, Obama would be done.

Once again, these breathless poll reports would be helped by a little more information. This poll has a 4.3% margin of error, which is not all that good (anything more than 3.5 % MoE is a danger sign to take the results with heaping helpings of salt), and looking at some of the tiny number of responses in some of the cells in their spreadsheet, they may not be as reliable as the overall (not very reliable) result.

So -- interesting-ish, but that is about it. Even Mark Penn would not trust these numbers....

Lee Hamilton just endorsed Obie so soon will see the fat-ass lady sing.

by the way: the Clintons must be destroyed

Hillary Delenda Est

Excuse me, but what "unpatriotic, bigoted and anti-Semitic comments" by Jeremiah Wright?

Even these so-called Jewish leaders in Pennsylvania who are supporting Obama can't keep themselves from libeling the man.

Indiana is a home away from home,, do recall the so called 'bubba' demographic is the present day expression of the disenfranchised sharecropper, white indentured white migration from Mississippi and Alabama and east Texas that went to underpopulated Indiana after 'The War' for a new start. Their culture came with them and hangs on to this day. Believe it or not, the KKK is still a force in the Hoosier state, even in Porter County in the northwest. Strange place.

And once again, when Obama starts campaigning in Indiana - and more importantly, when people in Indiana have a chance to see the Billary show up close, Obama will erase this lead easily. If (and that's now a big IF) Hillary can manage to win Pennsylvania, her days are still numbered until she is smashed in North Carolina and suspends her campaign in defeat. Dead woman walking!

I have a more optimistic view of Indiana. There are several cities that are very close to Chicago, indeed as close as could be considered suburbs. Obama could do well there. Also I don't believe any active hate groups have enough members in any one state to influence a vote. They are a very marginal portion of the lunatic fringe. Take a look at the hate group distribution map:
http://www.splcenter.org/intel/map/hate.jsp
Notice there are more in WA state than IN. In WA Obama won by about 68% to 35%. He also almost won TX with the largest concentration of such groups in the US.
Indiana will be tough because the southern part of the state borders the south and I do think that the rural areas are MUCH more conservative that the rural parts of some of the western states Obama has won. He'll close the gap after he spends more time there and they get to know him better. I think he can win it. Hillary's liberal flow of lies doesn't hurt either.
I love the latest: She opposed the war before Obama did. !.

I'm working for Obama here in PA. 2 weeks ago she was up by 26% he was here for 6 days and look at the numbers now, some are calling it even. 9 points in Indiana really seems like no big deal.

Mar 27, 2008 5:51 PM (10 days ago) AP

INDIANAPOLIS (Map, News) - More than a third of Indiana's Democratic legislators have bucked their party's state leaders to endorse Barack Obama for president.

About half of the 25 pro-Obama legislators attended a Statehouse news conference on Thursday, saying they believed the Illinois senator was the best candidate to unite and inspire the country.

Among those endorsing Obama are House Majority Leader Russ Stilwell of Boonville and House Ways and Means Chairman William Crawford of Indianapolis, and Senators Earline Rogers of Gary and Lindel Hume of Princeton, both members of their party's Senate leadership.

Hillary Rodham Clinton's prominent Indiana supporters include U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh, former Gov. Joe Kernan and Indiana House Speaker Patrick Bauer.
--
Other Indiana legislators whom the Obama campaign said have endorsed Obama are: Sens. Tim Lanane of Anderson and John Broden of South Bend and Reps. Dennis Avery of Evansville; Jeb Barden, John Bartlett, John Day, Greg Porter and Vanessa Summers of Indianapolis; Charlie Brown and Vernon Smith of Gary; Mara Candelaria Reardon of Munster; Dave Crooks of Washington; Chet Dobis of Merrillville; Ryan Dvorak of South Bend; Dale Grubb of Covington; Phil Hoy of Evansville; Linda Lawson of Hammond; Scott Pelath of Michigan City; Matt Pierce of Bloomington; Scott Reske of Pendleton; and Trent Van Haaften of Mount Vernon.

Copyright 2007 The Associated Press. All rights reserved

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