How come you always took pains to point out the previous close polls as an "outlier" but now after many close polls in PA you call this one "good news" for Hillary? Weird. Isn't this poll the new "outlier"?

Hmmm.. SUSA has a really good record thus far in the primaries. This poll has certainly given me pause for my previous optimism in Penna..

I'm an Obama supporter, and if I put any veracity in any poll this cycle, it's in SUSA. This wouldn't be the first time that a whole load o polls showed one thing, and all of them ended up being outliers (see NH).

I call outlier, unless the people of PA are just stubborn and are not affected by someone's main campaign strategist being a boob and the candidate kind of getting caught in more truth stretching about health care and even more so about her criticism of the Iraq war.

Rasmussen just came out with a different poll having Clinton at 48% and Obama at 43% in Pennsylvania.

A week ago, more or less, Survey USA had Clinton up by 12. Post Tuzla-Gate. Now she's back to 18...while every other poll indicates the race is getting tighter.

If the primary were tomorrow, some polling firm would have egg on their "face".

But whatever. Hillary is up, again, and so that means she has the potential to win, big, even though every other poll indicates something different.

Very interesting. I'd be very careful about dismissing this as an outlier, as we've already discussed how SUSA "encourages" it's respondents to pick a candidate and not remain on the fence. Undecideds seem to be splitting for Clinton still at this point. I suspect this is closer to the current picture on the ground in PA than some of the other polls that have recently come out.

There is still a lot of work left to do in the next two weeks.

I'd like to know whether the "Bradley effect" (polls over-counting white voters' willingness to vote for black candidates) is affected by whether the poll is conducted by a person or a robo-call. I wonder whether white Pennsylvanians are less willing to admit to a real live person that they won't support him.

Obama supporter, for what it's worth.

If you look at the history of the more recent polls, it would appear things are holding steady for now:

SurveyUSA:
On 4/8: Clinton 56 and Obama 38
On 4/1: Clinton 53 and Obama 41
On 3/11: Clinton 55 and Obama 36

Quinnipiac:
On 4/2: Clinton 50 and Obama 41
On 3/18: Clinton 53 and Obama 41

Rasmussen:
On 4/8: Clinton 48 and Obama 43
On 4/1: Clinton 47 and Obama 42
On 3/13: Cinton 51 and Obama 38

Whether it's a more favorable poll or a less favorable poll, things don't seem to be moving quickly in any one direction. Those of us able to volunteer need to keep our heads to the grindstone...there are still two weeks to go!

SUSA had Clinton winning big in Missouri right before Super Tuesday....didn't happen. I'm pretty suspicious of any poll that gives Obama poor numbers in the Philly area.

I'd much rather see this poll than the one where they're tied. Two weeks out is an eternity in this process, and the biggest concern for Obama now is expectations. Once the media gets into "Obama momentum" mode, nothing short of a victory will be enough. Better that things look dark as Obama's campaign builds its GOTV operation, buys ad time and continues to push its message.

This poll shows Hillary leading Obama by a point in the 18-34 demographic. Sorry, but that's just stupid.

It's also interesting that there don't seem to be any undecideds to speak of.

Not even close to any recent polls, outlier for sure.

Is it me, or do people have the exact same conversation every time a dramatic poll comes out?

She's supposed to win PA. The governor says they won't vote for Obama. Not his fault.

One interesting factor that I see in these poll results is that the conservative democrats are less likely to vote for Hillary than the liberal or moderate democrats. Who exactly is a self described "conservative" but also a registered democrat? Are they likely to be a union member? Are blacks overrepresented in this catagory?

Another interesting bit is that 4/5 of the respondents said they were unlikely to change their mind. To me this means that Obama needs not only to introduce himself to the voters, he also needs to lands some blows on Hillary to knock loose some of the voters.

This poll is not easily dismissible. I think Fly says that SUSA presses undecideds to make a pick. If all the undecideds from previous polls broke for Hillary, then SUSA's statistical difference with the other polls would be negligible.

finally some good news for clinton

The $109 million Tulza Queen with Penn as her Knight in shining armor widens her lead following her week long accomplishments?

May be she should eat a live puppy on primetime TV for a 100 to zilch clean wash. But again, as the numbers suggest, television is yet to be invented down in PA.

SurveyUSA has the best record this season- no question. But can someone one tell me what happenned in the last week for a 6 point swing toward Hillary?

Anyway, it's better to know the harsh PA reality, than be surprised later.

Regarding Hillary's latest ad in Pennsylvania:

I think many of you are missing the real point of the ad.

It is taking a certain group of people back to the Ozzie and Harriet days. Back to those good old days, in their memories when TV was pure and wholesome, and as white as could be. Hillary is playing the Hallmark card for the Touched by an Angel, and Matlock crowd. You know which group still plays Pinochle.

Did you hear that Mildred, Hillary also loves Pinochle like we still do. That Obama whippersnapper probably does not even know anything about Pinochle. He looks like one of those crazy kids with their video games and new fangled ideas. We better vote for Hillary. A president should know all about Pinochle. Well, time to head out for the Early Bird Special, come on Mildred, have you seen that new onion I bought to hang on my belt.

Noam Scheiber at TNR has an interesting analysis in this poll. Basically, Obama's decline since the last poll can be attributed to a drop in the black vote. Looks like we've got an outlier here. Still, this may keep Hillary from moving the goalposts again. http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_stump/archive/2008/04/08/obama-s-african-american-problem.aspx

Clinton has the popular vote lead (with [sic] WILL include FL and MI as they stand)

And thus re-emerges that mythical entity called "the popular vote." Unfortunately for Fogu2 & al, every superdelegate is an individual with his/her own mind, and thus every undecided super is free to consider whichever formulation of the popular vote makes the most sense to him or her.

Will some of them be inclined to add FL's and MI's numbers into that tally? Probably. Will all of them be so inclined? Almost certainly not. Will enough of them ("enough" being defined as the number necessary for her to win)? I would not bet on it.

As usual, this is simply amazing. All the little Obamabots, sitting around stroking each other, quivering with anticipation, pretending to be grown up. All of it in their enclosed little world, afraid to go out where the real adults are.

There's a term you children might want to Google. That is, if your parents will let you use the computer without supervision. It is "homophily". And please - look it up BEFORE you start snickering and snorting and saying, "He said 'Homo'" and giggling and all that. Homophily means basically, "Love of the same". It's the act of hanging out with people who think just like you do, and avoiding those who don't. To put it another way: Homphily makes you stupid.

You're all so busy trying to pretend your Dear Leader is actually qualified to be POTUS that you can't see the truth in front of you: The average American voter really does see the empty suit. Your only hope is that the kool-aid buzz of the early primaries hasn't worn off so far that people have come to their senses.

Clinton is this far ahead in PA because the grown-ups (i.e., people with jobs - not people still living with Mommy) get it. Out here in the real world, the Dear Leader's sheen is gone. And it shows in the polls.

SUSA's really screwy here. The poll gives Hillary a 9-point lead in southeastern PA --- bigger than her lead in west-central (Johnstown!) PA. At the same time, every demographic group that goes heavily for Obama (e.g., African-American population, college graduates etc.) is concentrated most heavily in Philly and suburbs. If Obama loses Philly and burbs by 9 points --- a result not found by any other poll I'm aware of --- of course he'll have a huge loss in PA. It might depend on how you define "southeastern PA," But I'm gonna go out on a limb here and guess that SUSA messed up.

A hell, let us just give Hillary Pennsylvania. It will make her feel good. It makes a nice consolation prize, before Senator Obama becomes the nominee of the party.

Golly - Troll Critic 3000 is nowhere in sight, but the above rant from "EastWest" is so mean and so snide that I just have to wonder...I mean, I know how old I am, and I think I can guess how old most of the people posting here are (sometimes from their photo avatars).

But how old is EastWest? He obviously wants to come across as "older". His whole insult shtick is based on the other posters being cliquish (a word that a lot more adults use than "homophily", which actually has a derisively small number of Google hits) and immature.

But it's the troll EastWest who uses masturbation imagery to insult us, and who is hip enough to reference Beavis and Butthead, comparing them to us.

Listen, EW (this is a good nick for this guy! Maybe a few more W's) -

I seriously doubt if any of these regular posters are under 21. Most are over 30...and I'm 54.

If you're so sure that Obama is a fake and that the "kool-aid is wearing off", why not just exult in front of your TV set (somehow I picture you in front of a TV set)? Obama's positions on issues are far too ridiculous to be argued. So why bestir yourself to show up here just to piss on us from a great height?

Hate and aggro like yours is always really directed toward someone you KNOW. Think about it. The unworthiness and stupidity you project on us belongs somewhere...

But only you know who and where, pal. It's not about politics for you. Don't bother with us. Get help soon.

Please note

I did check the survey USA and read through...I think It gives a sense that it is no longer relevant...

...Interviewing for SurveyUSA’s 04/01/08 release, one week ago, occurred in the middle of Obama’s 6-day bus tour through Pennsylvania, which began on 03/28/08....

So in other words, I am sure they do a new polling now, there would some changes...

What do you think?

EastWest needs to sample the freewheeling and openminded colloquy that is Taylor Marsh and Hillary is 44. A regular Harvard Debating society over there. Huzzah.

Okay, I need to give it a rest myself. But it's like all the reasonable HRC supporters have disappeared...for some reason. I sort of miss them...except maybe that the thing is they're no longer really HRC supporters anymore.

I've done some research, and for the most part, SurveyUSA has been pretty damn close. But sometimes they're way off. The last poll before the TX primary had Obama at 49-48. Clinton won TX 51-47. In AL Clinton polled 47-45. Obama won 56-42. This PA poll by SurveyUSA is way off. I think Obama will lose PA by 8-10 points.

I think what may be skewing this particular Survey USA result is that 25% of the sample is over 65. Even given the fact that Pennsylvania is an "old" state, I think that overrepresents that demographic. Plus, with the small size of the sample, half those people could really be over 80. Just anecdotally, the weather last weekend was awful but despite that, an unusual number of people were out and about in their cars for some reason. So those left at home to answer their landlines may have been unusually old and frail. HRC's constitutency. I'll take the Survey USA Quinnipiac average: HRC up by twelve.

obama will win