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SurveyUSA: Hillary Ahead By 12 Points In Pennsylvania Primary
This morning's SurveyUSA poll of Pennsylvania give Hillary Clinton a 12-point lead in the Democratic primary — statistically significant, but narrower than her lead from three weeks ago:
Clinton 53% (-2)
Obama 41% (+5)
From the internals: Clinton leads 62%-34% among women, and Obama is ahead 50%-43% with men. Also, Clinton previously led 53%-41% among voters under the age of 50, but is now only ahead 49%-47% in that demographic.
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This is actually good news. Another poll showing Obama gaining on Clinton.
+ 7%. Nice.
April 1, 2008 10:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
There ya go trolls.
April 1, 2008 10:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey what are you doing here, get back under your bridge and scare some goats.
April 1, 2008 10:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, she's going down faster than Monica L...-oops, I'm sorry that's tasteless.
April 1, 2008 10:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Tasteless or not, it's typical amber. No surprises here
April 1, 2008 10:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
If BO is in single digits next week, this could get interesting...
April 1, 2008 10:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
So, a seven point swing in favor of Obama.
April 1, 2008 10:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Better than the Rasmussen poll, but still shows significant movement for Obama. She can't take a couple more weeks of this, if this keeps up he'll be ahead of her come election day.
Regardless, it shows that she is very unlike to get the giant huge blowout win she needs to even keep pretending she has a chance of winning this race.
April 1, 2008 10:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, that seems like the more important take-away message here. I doubt that he will win PA outright, but the stars are lining up for him to keep it close, and that is as good as a loss for Clinton. Even if she were to take all the remaining unpledged supers at this point, she would still need a few big wins to arrive at the convention with more delegates. She is not going to get them. Even in the places where she will win, she is not going to win by the margins she needs. In other words, a twelve point Clinton lead three weeks out should be cheersome news indeed for Obama supporters like us.
April 1, 2008 11:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Election night in PA will be interesting because I think even if Hillary wins PA by a single primary vote she'll give the typical "comeback kid .... there's no stopping us now!" type speech.
But she is not an idiot. Not by half. I've never doubted her intelligence. If she wins PA by anything less than ten points and the NC poll numbers still look bad for her then I suspect her campaign will be looking for an excuse to suspend the campaign with minimal embarrassment. She gains nothing from continuing to get spanked after PA.
April 1, 2008 12:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, that's the annoying thing about the "expectations game:" if Obama closes the gap in the polls before the election, the media will have hyped his momentum so much that they will count a 1% loss as a big loss for him, not as the impressive showing that would be, given where he started.
So far, in races like this, Clinton has been able to make an 11th hour attack that reverses his momentum just enough to squeek her through to "victory."
Obama needs to hammer into the minds of the public NOW that they should be wary of any "new" critiques coming from the Clinton campaign right before the election. He should remind voters that she has thrown mud before each election that stuck only until the election was over and slid off when he, and the media, had time to correct the record or provide context (see pro-choice votes in NH, he wants to raise your taxes in NV, Reverend Wright in Texas/Ohio). He should remind them that she had plenty of time in to bring up any substantial issues well before the Penn primary and so if they see any last minute attacks, they should view them with extreme skepticism. He needs to hammer this home everywhere he goes because this has been a very effective technique for her.
April 1, 2008 2:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now that's interesting.
One of the key questions of the past week was whether Obama’s new approach and his endorsement by Bob Casey would enable him to break through among the blue collar Catholics who are known as “Casey Democrats.”
The poll doesn’t ask about religion or income, so we’ve got to look elsewhere for answer. It shows relatively little movement among white voters, indicating that Hillary held steady while Obama picked up four points. But among the 13% of voters who consider themselves politically conservative, Clinton’s lead has shifted from 58-25% to 49-45%. And among pro-life voters (more than a third of respondents) Clinton’s lead has dwindled from 53-36% to 50-44%. And his biggest gains in any age group came among middle-aged voters (35-49), who moved from 53-40 to 49-48%.
So it’s not definitive. But put those numbers together, and you have a profile of the median voter Obama has managed to win over in the past two weeks. Middle-aged, probably Catholic, socially conservative. In short, a Casey Democrat. The endorsement hasn’t pushed these folks solidly into Obama’s column, but it has allowed him to draw pretty much even. And that’s worrying news for Hillary, and reassuring news for Obama supporters who doubted their man’s ability to connect with this demographic.
April 1, 2008 10:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Two more pieces of supporting evidence.
The first is that I should have specified that Casey Democrats are, not suprisingly, male. The polls show almost no movement among women, but a huge Obama surge among men: down 47-42, to up 50-43%.
The second factor is religion. Confirming that we're talking about Catholics is the fact that Obama picked up little ground among those who attend religious services frequently (generally a proxy for protestants) and actually lost ground among those who attend rarely. But among those who attend occasionally (and most American Catholics fall into that category), he surged from 60-31 to 50-43.
Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the Casey Democrats.
April 1, 2008 10:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Very interesting. Thanks for doing that analysis for us.
April 1, 2008 11:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Umm....wasn't Obama ahead of Clinton going into NH? I wouldn't bet the farm on polls.
April 1, 2008 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually the Rasumussen poll is showing the gap at 5 points - don't get carried away though. Managing expectations is everything and its important that touting a close outcome doesn't backfire on him if the gap is wider. All indications are that the gap will be double digits (demo's etc.) which is excellent. Keep the expectations there, then if it ends up closer, its a win for him. My 2c.
April 1, 2008 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Do not overlook the Senator Casey endorsement factor. It may not be just the Hillary Rambo Clinton, The Heroine of Tuzla, Fairy Tale that is at play here.
April 1, 2008 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Don't forget the endorsements of Franco Harris and Jerome Bettis.
Those can't hurt in Pittsburgh among men of all social groups.
(the Bowling "scandal" probably didn't help, though)
April 1, 2008 10:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
MEN of Pittsburgh? You haven't spent much time in the Burgh, have you? When you enter the Pittsburgh airport, you're greeted by two statues. The first is of George Washington, who cut his teeth in the British army out at Fort Pitt. The other is Franco Harris, making the Immaculate Reception. The Steelers are a religion in the region. Harris and the Bus are insanely popular with ALL yinzers. My guess is Obama's appearance with them gave him a three point bump throughout Western Pa. The fact Obama printed up a Terrible Towel of his own was priceless.
April 1, 2008 2:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
If I had to guess at the "real" number right about now, judging from all the polls, I'd go for about an 8% lead for Hillary, which in her firewall state still a few weeks out, seems like she is pretty thoroughly screwed to me.
April 1, 2008 10:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ed Rendell was on my TeeVee this morning telling me that a 5% win by Hillary represents a significant victory. Sounded like some serious spinning to me, and now I know why.
April 1, 2008 10:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Dammit, we can't let this happen again... Obama goes from about 20 points down in Texas to 4 in the actual primary (and wins the caucus, of course) and it's spun as a Clinton comeback??
I think basically the same thing will happen in PA: It'll be close, she'll probably win by 3-8% then go on to claim that "the people have spoken" and all that jazz. Everyone will forget that she was supposed to destroy him here, just like in OH/TX, just like on Super Tuesday.
April 1, 2008 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Could have been titled differently - since she's actually lost all those points, but hey, that's ok.
It's in there. :)
April 1, 2008 10:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
The numbers will even out a bit. She just wen through the Tuzla thing and that made her numbers dip, I'm guessing.
Good sign of progress, but there is a long way until voting begins. April just started.
April 1, 2008 10:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, she's going down faster than Monica L...-oops, I'm sorry that's tasteless.
LOL!
I love tasteless.
April 1, 2008 10:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's time he cut an ad with a group of middle aged middle class white women because he'll soon hit the ceiling with other demographics.
I was surprised he didn't make a more effective pitch in OH and I'm surprised now. He has to make a pitch to that particular demographic- and even if he peels away 2-3 points, that will make the difference.
April 1, 2008 10:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
And there's still three weeks to go - an eternity. I'd be quite happy with another 7 point gain over the next three weeks for a 5 pt defecit. All those knowledgable of the state have said he will lose - no doubt about it. But a girl can always hope...
April 1, 2008 10:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
well, my GF tells me spermicide is tasteless.
on another note, for you "I came in my pants after seeing Obama on youtube" clods. Electing Obama is like diving off a cliff, wearing a parachute packed by an affirmative action baby. Maybe it'll work out....
April 1, 2008 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, racist much?
April 1, 2008 11:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
Scoreboard!
April 1, 2008 11:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
OTOH, voting for Clinton (the ultimate Affirmative Action Kid) is like diving off that same cliff with an anvil in your 'chute bag. Voting for McCain would be like shooting yourself in the head, slitting your throat, and then diving off the cliff with the anvil in your hands.
April 1, 2008 11:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Right.
He graduated from Harvard Law magna cum laude despite the time commitment of being president of the Harvard Law Review through affirmative action. Taught a full course load at the University of Chicago School of Law while serving as a state legistlator and wrote two bestsellers without a ghost writer (unlike Hillary) all because of affirmative action.
I would call you a dumbass if not for the insult to an essential body part implied by the comparison.
April 1, 2008 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, Milli-Vanilli, Bill was quoted as telling Monica she tasted delicious after he put the "used" cigar in his mouth.
Just so's we keep it all in perspective.
April 1, 2008 11:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Man, Clinton cannot spin a single-digit Pennsylvania win. To say nothing of a loss.
She cannot. This is her state, she needs a blowout in PA, and if she doesn't get it she's in a world of hurt.
April 1, 2008 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
And yet, Ed Rendell appeared to be starting to do just that--saying a 5 - 8% win in PA is a significant win.
Moving the goalposts, again.
April 1, 2008 11:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Next to Hillary herself, Ed Rendell has taken the biggest credibility hit during this election. The man is just a joke.
April 1, 2008 11:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
At least he didn't go as far as Mark Penn and say that Obama couldn't win his state in the general election.
April 1, 2008 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Okay, instant poll:
1. What will be the final spin:
a) Second place in Pennsylvania is as good as a victory.
b) Pennsylvania doesn't count.
c) Kentucky is the real "must win" state. If we don't win Kentucky, we'll probably have to quit.
d) Anything less than a twenty point blowout for Obama is a "virtual tie" and, given the very troubling demographics makeup of Obama's likely voters, the superdelegates should be very concerned about his ability to win this state in the fall, no matter how large an asswhiping he lays on us.
2. Who will provide the final spin:
a) Howard Wolfson
b) Mark Penn(sylvania)
c) Bill Clinton
d) Punxsutawny Phil
e) Ed Rendell
3. And, for bonus points, when will the final spin be issued?
a) The day before the primary
b) 2-7 days before the primary
c) Three weeks before the primary
d) Within the next 48 hours
Make your selections and bookmark the permalink folks.
April 1, 2008 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Apparently losing is the new winning. And silver is the new gold.
April 1, 2008 12:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
So, Mark Penn, just whose "base of support" is "slipping" now? Heh.
April 1, 2008 11:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Source: DailyKos.
Some more good news for Obama. He picks up two more delegates in Mississippi- so has a margin of 7 delgegates and not 5 as previously reported.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5330945
On another note, Obama's margin of victory in Mississippi no longer "almost eclipsed" Hillary's primary margin in Texas - it completely surpassed it. To all you popular vote total affecianadoes, the hill just got a little steeper.
Just to give an Idea:
Total vote count in TX democratic primary: 28,18,599
Total Vote count in MS democratic primary: 4,24,723
The lead acquired by Hillary in a contest of 28 million votes was erased by Obama in another contest of 4 million votes.
April 1, 2008 11:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Um, you might want to check the placement of your commas. That's 2.8 million votes against .42 million votes.
April 1, 2008 11:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
The lead acquired by Hillary in a contest of 28 million votes was erased by Obama in another contest of 4 million votes
Correction:
The lead acquired by Hillary in a contest of 2.8 million votes was erased by Obama in another contest of 400,000 votes
As Ickes predicted we Obama folks don't know our math.
April 1, 2008 11:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Any insight as to why Obama is struggling with under 50 voters in Pennsylvania? He's made gains according to the poll, but is underperforming with them compared to other states.
April 1, 2008 11:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think Hillary will win Penn. by even more than 12 points.
Hey, what's with your guy saying:
"I don't think women should be punished with babies and STDs" ??
Hey guys, guess what?
I'm one of those 28 % who will vote McCain if your guy is successful in stealing this election with that caucus krap and blocking the Fla. & Michigan revote.
LOL
We 28% will put McCain IN OFFICE. Your guy doesn't have a chance. And the DNC will pay for this stupidity!
We are mighty. We are women, hear us ROAR!! In numbers too BIG too ignore!!
April 1, 2008 11:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Have fun with your back alley abortions, then.
April 1, 2008 11:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
I also love how the new talking point is that winning caucuses = stealing the election.
There is exactly zero logic in that.
April 1, 2008 11:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Enjoy being a woman after McCain gets to put a few justices on the Supreme Court.
April 1, 2008 11:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's nice to see you taking a stand for an individual, rather than the progressive issues they stand for. I guess voting against Obama is more important to you than women's rights, healthcare, education, etc. I have a message for you: McCain will do more damage to those roaring women than you could ever imagine by nominating conservative fundamentalists to the Supreme Court.
April 1, 2008 11:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am very sorry that you feel that way, dear Rae. I do notice, however, that you live in Atlanta (at least according to the info you filled out in your profile) so I am not sure for how much your McCain vote will really count. Obama won in GA by more than 2 to 1. In other words, there were not many of you Clinton voters in that state to begin with, so 28% of that already small fraction comes to a very small number indeed.
April 1, 2008 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
I know a whole family in Atlanta, normally half of whom consistently vote republican, and the entire clan is going for Obama (a few of them even switched reg to vote in dem primary). They think he'll turn that red state blue come november.
April 1, 2008 3:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL? What are you, in 7th grade?
Let me get this straight--if your candidate (a woman) doesn't win, you'll vote for John McCain (a man) instead of Barack Obama (a man) to get back at everyone?
I'm not one much for threats and blackmailing, and it's not a very convincing argument. Pretty unflattering too.
April 1, 2008 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
We are mighty. We are women, hear us ROAR!! In numbers too BIG too ignore!!
RaeK: Many of those roaring women, who support Hillary, live in places like NY and MA as well and are leading advocates and consider women's right to choose far holier than Hillary's candidacy. I have a feeling they also don't like the war and equally disgusted with the economty.
Wait for a couple of weeks after the dust is settled- you can continue to be rightwing talking dummy, actually the roaring women care about issues and that's why they always vote democrat.
April 1, 2008 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
The problem with this old time feminist slogan is that, for young women today, it's old, old, old. Irrelevant to our interest in what really matters for our future.
April 1, 2008 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL, what?
Are you for real, or just pretending to be a Hillary troll?
That sure sounded like Satire to me.
April 1, 2008 12:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
In arguing for comprehensive sex ed, he said teenaged girls shouldn't be punished with babies and STDs. Like most sane people, he thinks 16-year-olds shouldn't be having sex, but since the entire history of humanity says that many teenagers will have sex regardless of what we think, they should have the information that will allow them to protect themselves.
The only people who disagree with that statement are the ones pushing abstinence-only education, who also happen to think that anyone having pre-marital sex *should* be punished with forced pregnancies, STDs and scarlet letters hung around their necks. You know, the kind of people who think McCain is a liberal.
Real feminists will vote for Obama in the fall.
April 1, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Awesome April Fools joke!
April 1, 2008 2:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Expect the knives to come out again. At the debate she'll say all kinds of nice things about him to his face, then try to stick the shiv in one day later. Probably a crying session mixed in around then somewhere as well.
April 1, 2008 11:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
They're going to be ready for that crap this time. One thing about Obama and his campaign people, they evolve with impressive speed.
In that sense, maybe it's good that the primary contest has lasted so long. It's added an experienced professionalism to an already brilliantly conducted campaign.
April 1, 2008 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
It all about trends.
Trends.
Trends.
Trends.
Trends.
Trends.
Trends.
Trends.
Repeat after me:
It all about trends.
April 1, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Today: (53 – 41) C+12
3/11/08: (55 – 36) C+19
It all about trends.
April 1, 2008 12:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey thejoshuablog,
U idiot, all the numbers have 4% errs. So your trend BS, is just simply that.
April 1, 2008 1:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Folks: It is now official. Hillary is bonkers. She is now clearly delusional.
First you had her Fairy Tale claim about her Fantasy Warrior deeds in Bosnia.
Today she compared herself to a fictional character in the movies.
Here is what she said. She has lost all grip on reality.
PHILADELPHIA - Perhaps the analogy was inevitable: Hillary Rodham Clinton as Rocky Balboa, the scrappy underdog boxer from Philadelphia memorably depicted in the 1976 Oscar-winning film. Even if Rocky did lose his first big fight.
Addressing a meeting of the Pennsylvania AFL-CIO Tuesday, the former first lady and New York senator said that she, like Rocky, wasn't a quitter.
Soon Hillary will be asking people to win one for The Gipper.
April 1, 2008 3:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yet another poll shows Hillary leading in a coming important Democratic primary:
If the Democratic Primary for President of the United States were today, would you vote for...(names rotated) Hillary Clinton? Barack Obama? Or some other Democrat?
52% Clinton
43% Obama
4% Other
1% Undecided
That's 3 states this week where Hillary enjoys a substantial lead from Survey USA (PA, IN and KY), yet people keep calling for her to bail from her campaign. Am I missing something or is the Democratic Party just trying to throw her under the bus?
April 1, 2008 3:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, you're missing several things oh, other Steve from the Carolinas.
a) You're missing that that's three of ten primaries. Obama is up in five of the ten and his lead is increasing in them.
b) You're missing that Hillary's lead in Pennsylvania is sliding fast with five weeks to go.
c) You're missing that Obama's just now getting TV ads on the air in Indiana and every time he goes on the air, his numbers start getting better. That same pattern has persisted in state after state.
d) And, most important, you're missing that there is no way for her to catch up that doesn't involve a sudden infusion of magic pixie fairy dust. Once again, I encourage you to go to the delegate calculator at Slate.com, here's a link.
http://www.slate.com/id/2185278/
Play with it a bit and see what she has to do to over take him in the delegate count. Here's a hint: 36-64 blowouts in every remaining state gives her a two delegate lead. Give Obama a five point win in North Carolina (which is ridiculously conservative) and a five point loss in Indiana, and it takes 31 to 32 point blowouts in every state for her to creep a couple of delegates past him.
Hillary won Arkansas, a wholly owned subsidary of Clinton, Inc., 70-30. Other than that, she hasn't even come close to pulling off a 28 point blowout in this race. She only won New York, her own frakkin state, by 14 points. That was as a front runner with lots of campaigning and TV in her own back yard. She did pull off a 16 point win in the delegate mother lode of Rhode Island. That was the best she could do back when she had barrels of money and plenty of credibility as a frontrunnner.
So go ahead, play with the Slate calculator and see if you can come up with any plausible scenario where she comes out ahead.
April 1, 2008 4:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Steve:
When your favorite football team is down 41-3 in the 4th quarter and scores a bunch of points at the end of the game to make the score close, did the opposing coach throw his defense under the bus?
Looking at this rationally, here's what you're missing. Obama hasn't campaigned against Clinton for more than a month, if he ever did. All he's done is parry blows and try to run out the clock on her mathematically eliminated candidacy. Now he could be bringing up lots and lots of Clinton unpleasantness that people in Pennsylvania, entucky, and Indiana would really respond to. Why isn't he? Because he said he was going to be a different kind of candiate and his superior organization and strategy prior to Ohio and Texas gave him the luxury to stick to that conviction. People like me would rather he open up on Hillary, but why bother? She lost the nomination in February and her attempts to resurrect it will not succeed.
April 1, 2008 4:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
If he is down in PA I think partially it could be because trolls have been on the Obama activist/supporters list-serves smearing and doing lots of weird things. They have tainted the campaign in that sense, and are sly and savvy...I hadn't noticed this until recently, prob. after Ohio. So I think it could affect his campaign. These are down-low, yet sophisticated tactics.
April 1, 2008 6:53 PM | Reply | Permalink