Surprise Mississippi Result Shows Unpopularity Of Iraq War In Deep Red States
In a major upset that shows just how strong opposition to the Iraq War is in even very red states, the Democratic candidate came out on top in the first round of the special election to succeed Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS) in his old House seat, in a district that by all rights should have had an outright win for the Republican candidate.
Democrat Travis Childers finished with 49% of the vote in last night's special election, Republican Greg Davis 46%, and the remainder going to the defeated candidates from the primaries for the regular election in November, plus third-party candidates. Without anybody getting 50% of the vote, this goes to a runoff in three weeks.
Both Childers and Davis are strong social conservatives, so it might be useful to look at the major issue dividing them: Iraq, with Childers supporting a timetable for withdrawal and Davis in favor of staying.
Bear in mind, this is a huge upset in a district that voted 62%-37% for President Bush in 2004, and where the last Democrat to represent the place was Jamie Whitten, who spent a good part of his career as an old-time Southern conservative segregationist. And with the DCCC beating the Republicans in the money game, the Dems will have a lot of money to bring to bear for the runoff.
This just underscores the point that the race for President will be fundamentally redefined once it gets heads-up between Obama and John McCain.....All of Hillary's B.S. about Obama's electability goes out the window when you see a poll like this. It was Obama, not Hillary, that opposed the war from the beginning, and he is the only one that can make that case credibly against John McCain. Can you even imaging Hillary trying to argue against the war in a race versus McCain? All he has to do is bring up her War Resolution vote (which she has still not disavowed), and all the rest of her arguments become noise.
April 23, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
that's good news!
April 23, 2008 12:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Iraq = Winning Democratic Issue this fall
Bet your bottom dollar on it. The fading infatuation with the "surge" the MSM currently has will disappear with the reduction in US troop levels and the increasing heat of the summer.
Which also ties in with Petraeus moving up to CENTCOM. Politically, he can now wash his hands of anything that occurs afterwards, since that will be seen as "Odierno's" fault. Dave cut himself a pretty spectacular deal.
I'm not surprised in the least. The fan is a politician, through and through. I had to help clean up his mess in Mosul in 2005.
Also note, one of Dave's previous jobs was the head of MNSTC-I. That's "Multi-National Security Transition COmmand," the guys tasked with rebuilding the security infrastructure of the Iraqi Security Forces. Remember the ISF? Those guys that ran away from fighting for their country, or at least their prime minister, in Basra?
Bottom line: There is always more to the story than meets the press. Unfortunately.
April 23, 2008 12:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, Obama is already tying the bad economy to the war, which is I think a wonderful strategy - since it happens to be true that the two are linked, the war is terribly unpopular and the economy has people worried.
I agree with you, Angry Vet - I want to hear a lot of campaigning on Iraq. And Obama is the best candidate to attack the war since he didn't vote for it.
April 23, 2008 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Amen, sister.
Of course, how do you get the media to discuss this? How do you get the people on the street to discuss this?
Or, is our country going to be, once again, duped into electing someone based on who their friends were, what their pastor said once, and an out-of-context and disingenuous parsing of intelligent statements?
I HOPE not.
April 23, 2008 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
This much I know - the media is not our friend and it's not Obama's friend, so I am not counting on any help from that direction. Because: in a fascist state, the media is the corporate government and the corporate government is the media.
I believe that once the primary is over, and we can concentrate on McCain, some of that will be laid to rest. I hope.
April 23, 2008 12:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Of course, how do you get the media to discuss this? How do you get the people on the street to discuss this?
Simple! we need to focus scorching attention to the astronomical war bill (Billions per month), huge loss of life of our armed forces,devastating collateral damage,the illegitimate nature of the war itself,our shredded foreign policy to start with. The vast billions being spent on this pointless war culd be best spent improving lives of americans here at home. I understand that a single Hellfire missile costs around $500,000 and these things are fired off daily.BURN THE DOLLARS,why dont u? We need to point our that our supreme military machine should never to abused by opportunistic politicians at the expense of the lives of our brave troops.
We DEMAND that they be brought home!
April 24, 2008 10:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Great news .
Thank you Miss.
Mcwar will get crushed in the general.
April 23, 2008 12:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Obama keeps talking about it in the fall, they have to cover what he says. Our problem in the past has been candidates pussyfooting around our best issues. I don't think Obama's going to make that mistake.
April 23, 2008 12:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Absolutely! John Kerry was such a frustrating candidate for that reason. But he really didn't have the wherewithal to fight the damn Republican machine. That machine was still operating in full force and effect in '04. Tom Delay was still raising that money. K Street totally belonged to the Republicans. Karl Rove ran the voting machines.
That whole money-raising, election-stealing machine has completely broken down and the pieces are scattered.
They will run, I predict, a very petty, small-minded, mean race against Obama and it will do nothing but take them down further.
April 23, 2008 12:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wonderful news, this. Suffice it to say, I agree wholeheartedly with everything that Angry Vet, TenaX and Steve LaBonne have said so far.
April 23, 2008 12:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
O and P.S.
I hope the Republicans take the corporate media down with them.
April 23, 2008 12:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
No surprise here. Not after Denny Hastert's seat went blue. The Republicans are truly in deep shit, even in the deep South.
April 23, 2008 12:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
they are especially in deep shit in the deep south with Obama running.
We're going to break through the wall of the Southern Strategy - finally. I really believe we're going to kill it with this election.
April 23, 2008 12:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree - but we have the best chance of doing this with Obama as our candidate. McCain will indeed be toast.
April 23, 2008 12:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Carol - I couldn't agree more for a lot of reasons.
If the nominee is Clinton, she will run a Clinton-style campaign, which is to say a DLC-style campaign. If you want a flawless example of a campaign run that style, look at John Kerry in '04. Whole big swaths of the country were totally ignored. I was living in a Democratic dead zone in Texas. We couldn't even get enough yard signs down here - they ignore us. And Kerry still carried the city and only missed the county by 1 %.
In '06, after Howard Dean took over, we threw 49 Republican judges out of office in Dallas County in '06 in one night. We totally reversed the Reagan Massacre of '84.
There is a fundamental difference between the DNC's view of how to win, and the DLC's view. We've tried the old way - the DLC way - twice and we've lost. Why? We appealed to too narrow an idea of the base. Hillary's base. It's not enough.
The Southern Strategy will strangle us every time if we keep running the old way. We can break this and turn some purple states totally blue this election and put a real progressive in the White House if we nominate Obama.
This is why I fell for him - it was primary night in Texas - I've seen what can happen with my own eyes. 4000 people turned out in one precinct that last time saw total turnout of 58 people.
I'm getting so tired of saying this - I hope I haven't bored everyone to tears. Sorry if I have.
April 23, 2008 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, keep saying it, loud and clear.
April 23, 2008 1:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
no, please keep sharing.
I have a lot of theories of why Obama is appealing to people who may not share his policies.
People like Honesty. They looked at Kerry, and they couldn't trust him. He kept saying different things, it was hard for me to even follow his logic at times.
But Obama is different. He's not afraid to speak the truth, even to people who don't want to hear it. Like telling Detroit they need higher fuel efficiency on their cars.
People respect that. And if McCain keeps hedging on the economy and ethics, then he will be faced with the same scorn leveled at Kerry.
April 23, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think that may well be the whole key, SC. People are dying for someone they feel is telling them the truth and will continue to tell them the truth.
Her numbers on that are terrible.
It will kill her, ultimately, if she happens to steal the nomination -
April 23, 2008 3:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've spent a lot of time in Miss. and this is an important demonstration of the Obama effect. I've also been told by a Black Democrat there, a former judge in Canton Miss., that he thinks if the primary were "taken away" from Obama, the Black vote would be depressed by at least 25%.
The party can't win a general with a depressed Black vote.
April 23, 2008 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
2nd time I've agreed with gotalife.
(1st time was his comments on ACLU doing more than the Democratic leadership)
April 23, 2008 1:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
But if Obama is the nominee McCain will relentlessly undercut Obama's claim to having been the one who opposed the war from the beginning. And McCain will need go no farther than to present Obama's voting record on the war in the Senate, which is identical to Hillary's. And McCain will point out that Obama's entire claim is based on just one speech he gave to an anti-war crowd back in the days before he joined the Senate. Let's get real here. Republicans are not wild Obama supporters. They are under no obligation to believe the spin carefully crafted by the Obama campaign. They will look at the facts and see that Obama is no different than Hillary where the war is concerned, except for one easy, safe, risk-free speech when he wasn't yet in the Senate. They will portray him as a big talker with no substance.
April 23, 2008 1:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
She lost, get over it.
April 23, 2008 1:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Please - you can't honestly believe the shit that you type here, can you? Obama has SO much to hit McCain on, he will render McCain's attacks absolutely useless (and it is my greatest hope that during one of the debates he gets McCain to exhibit one of his famous temper tantrums). And Obama voted to fund the troops once the war was underway (by the way, that war funding includes Afghanistan, which Obama supported) - that one simple fact will undercut any claims that McCain can make about Obama's voting record.
What is Hillary going to hit McCain on? That she voted for the same war he did? That she voted on the Iran resolution, the same way McCain did? That she just threatened to obliterate Iran (hey, remember his little ditty "bomb, bomb, bomb Iran"? McCain can try to minimize Obama's stance on the war, the way Hillary has tried, but I'd much rather have an Obama vs. McCain face off on the war than the alternative.
April 23, 2008 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
I will be delighted and surprised if the Democrats win Wicker seat in Mississippi.
I will be delighted and amazed if Mississippi goes to the democratic nominee in the presidential election. I would bet a large sum of money that this does not happen, in spite of the fact I would like to lose my bet.
April 23, 2008 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
The excitement for Obama with younger Miss. White voters has allowed a part of the white electorate (even Republicans) to move to the Left. The Republicans, for he first time in Mississippi history, have to worry about younger Republican defecting.
The Obama Effect.
April 23, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Before the MS primary I would've agreed with you but Hillary won the vast majority of white voters in MS. Now granted a sizable portion of those where Republicans under order from Rush Limbaugh but I was still surprised and disappointed that Obama didn't do better with white voters. Obama will have to do MUCH better in the general to have a shot at upsetting McCain in the general.
I have no doubt however that he will do better in MS than Hillary would have and will help other Dems on the ticket much more than Hillary. To say that Hillary is poorly thought of in MS is an understatement. If her negatives are at 60% nationally then there about 85% in MS and have been for a long time.
April 23, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is great news. And it shows why Obama is a great candidate. No, he won't win Mississippi, but he can generate excitement in Mississippi that will help down ticket candidates AND he can force McCain to spend resources in every state.
The 50-state strategy is right, and it's the future.
April 23, 2008 2:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
We are so excited down here in Mississippi. MS-01 is the district I grew up in. I live in Jackson the capital now, which is MS-03. Obama has successfully energized the base. While it will be hard to carry Mississippi in November, we will fight like hell to make it close. With HRC we have no shot of being close, that is a fact.
We have a lot of ignorant, poor, voters who are easily swayed by the politics of fear. If not for that, I think we would carry this state in November.
We have been covering the race the best we can on our Mississippi political blog, Cotton Mouth.
April 23, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
You rock!
We're gonna work our asses off in Texas, where he has a shot at it.
He may well bring in our downballot races and we are only 5 seats back from retaking the Texas Lege! Woo Hoo! sorta - the Texas Lege is pretty worthless in general and we only let them meet every other year on that account.
But we have lots of national races on the line, not least of which is Rick Noriega trying to unseat John "I am possibly the biggest clown in Congress" Cornyn.
April 23, 2008 3:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't believe it . . . I agree with gotalife . . .
McWar is goin' ta be crushed.
Jonesing for them ever-lasting Presidential war-powersApril 23, 2008 9:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Mississippi, which has the worst education system in the US, can get how bad the Iraq war is, you know it's fucked.
April 23, 2008 11:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Looking at the comments on this story, I have to ask what Travis Childers almost avoiding a run-off and capturing a very red House seat in the Deep South have to do with Barack Obama's candidacy?
This has way more to do with recruiting a candidate that reflects a district's culture and facing a damaged Republican nominee way more than it has to do with opposition to the war. I wish it were the other way around but it's just not so. If they had nominated a liberal anti-war candidate rather than a conservative, anti-choice white man, do you think we'd have a shot in hell at this seat?
It's hard for me to believe that this district or the state of Mississippi would vote for Sen. Obama in a general election. Look at the polls, throwing money at states like Mississippi and Kansas to put them in play is not a realistic strategy if he can't win Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida.
Just saying "I was opposed to the war from the beginning" doesn't make up for having a serious problem with working class and blue collar voters. Saying he can pick up Clinton's voters but she can't pick up his just underscores the man's arrogance as a candidate and Axelrod's statement just shows why we're headed for a repeat of 2004 if Obama is the nominee.
April 24, 2008 12:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Undoubtedly Obama has left behind a serious ground organization in all these states he's worked in.
Nothing is better for the locals than to have a national candidate come in and fund a great game for them....and then leave it there.
Good job Mississippi for keeping it going! The huge changes we need will not be gotten without the down ticket pull to back up the great vision.
April 24, 2008 3:56 AM | Reply | Permalink