« Sevugan Joins Obama Campaign, Hits Hillary's Ties To Mark Penn | Home | DSCC Chief Schumer: We'll Keep Republicans On Defense All Over The Map »

Dems Exceptionally Well Positioned To Expand Majority In Senate

The GOP is defending nine — count 'em, nine — Senate seats in this fall's elections.

The Democrats are defending all of ... one.

That's the conclusion we reached after a close look at the map of Senate races this year — and it shows just how well-positioned the Dems are to expand their majority.

The presidential race has sucked up so much media oxygen that it's easy to forget that there's another bitter and high-stakes electoral showdown looming this fall: The Congressional races.

Here — according to our analysis of all the ratings compiled by non-partisan sources like National Journal, Larry Sabato, Charlie Cook and CQ — is a chart offering a snapshot of the sum total of races where a seat has a chance of changing hands ("(i)" identifies an incumbent"):

StateGOP CandidateDem CandidateOutlook
AlaskaTed Stevens (i)Mark BegichLeans GOP
ColoradoBob SchafferMark UdallTossup
LouisianaJohn KennedyMary Landrieu (i)Tossup
MaineSusan Collins (i)Tom AllenLeans GOP
MinnesotaNorm Coleman (i)Al FrankenTossup
MississippiRoger Wicker (i)Ronnie MusgroveLikely GOP
New HampshireJohn Sununu (i)Jeanne ShaheenLeans Dem
New MexicoTBDTom UdallLeans Dem
OregonGordon Smith (i)TBDLeans GOP
VirginiaJim GilmoreMark WarnerLikely Dem

A rundown on the daunting odds the Republicans face — and the ripe opportunities Dems have — is after the jump.

First off, the GOP has largely struck out in terms of recruiting candidates to run for Dem-held seats, obviously a must if they want to get back into the majority. Only weak candidates are running in usually-contested states like Iowa and South Dakota, while first-term Arkansas Senator Mark Pryor (D) is running unopposed entirely.

Compounding the problem for the GOP, Republican Senators are retiring in Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado, leaving them as ripe pickup opportunities for strong Democratic candidates. (Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska is also retiring, but the GOP managed to get a good candidate there, former Gov. Mike Johanns.)

Just about the only strong candidate that the GOP has recruited for a Dem seat is in Louisiana, where state Treasurer John Kennedy was enticed into switching parties and running against two-term Democrat Mary Landrieu, who for her part has never won by big margins and is in a state going more and more to the Republicans. This is their best pick-up opportunity, but even this one isn't a sure thing — a SurveyUSA poll in December put Landrieu narrowly ahead.

Meanwhile, the Dems have managed to recruit a bunch of good candidates in states like New Hampshire, Virginia, New Mexico, and even the long-time GOP bastion of Alaska.

Another boon to Dems: They are enjoying a big financial advantage, too — through February, the DSCC had $32.8 million on hand, compared to only $15.3 million on hand for the Republicans.

To top it all off, in addition to the manifold advantages the Dems enjoy in money, candidate recruitment and incumbent strength, the Dems are also poised to gain from the national political environment, which could barely be worse for Republicans right now. Recent polling shows the president's approval rating is only 32%, the GOP self-identification number is 14 points lower than Dem self-identification, and the favorable/unfavorable rating of the Republican party right now is 34%-49%, far lower than the 45%-35% for the Dems.

Bottom line: Even if the Democrats win only a few of their targeted races, which is a pessimistic prediction, a 55-45 Senate majority is not unrealistic. If they nearly run the table, then Dems can conceivably get almost 60 seats.


Comments (89)

Post a Comment

Poll Tracker

View more polls »
Advertise Liberally
Share
Close Social Web Email

"To" Email Address

Your Name

Your Email Address