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Rasmussen: Pennsylvania Primary Tightening

The new Rasmussen poll shows the Pennsylvania primary tightening -- here are the numbers, compared to last Monday:

Hillary 47% (50%)

Obama 44% (41%)

One interesting tidbit from the poll: A surprising 12% say something they saw in the debate caused them to change their mind about how they're voting. This is a bit of a murky stat, but taken with the tightening of the race it could be a sign that the debate may have played against Hillary.

However, the poll also finds that Obama's support "appears to be a bit softer" than Hillary's, with six percent of Obama backers saying there's a good chance they could change their minds, while only two percent of Hillary supporters say that.

Total undecided: Nine percent. Total who still might change their mind: 12%.

Total knowledge we have about what's going to happen on Tuesday: Zero.


75 Comments

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You should take a look at the number of undecideds in each of the PA polls taken to this date. The undecideds have characteristically broken for Clinton in most of the primaries, and I expect them to break for Clinton, earning her a 12 point win in Pennsylvania.

That has been the pattern so far. We'll see if Obama can break that trend. If so, long night for the Clinton machine.

This is a bit of an oversimplification. Obama has picked up the lions share of those who have decided within a week to three days before the vote, while Clinton has picked up the better part of those who decide the day before or the day of the vote. In other words, it is by no means clear that all of those undecideds are yet into the time frame where they should favor Clinton.

Man walks into a polling place and the attendant asks him if he's there to vote. Man says "I'm undecided." Attendant says then get in there and vote for that woman then. I know this is happening. There simply is no other way to explain it.

Demand "Change I can believe in" from your cashier!

Obama needs to get more than 45% of the vote. That will be a strong showing.

20 ponts? I disagree. Probably 20 pints.

"20 pont win in PA:"

Thats the cooked cocaine talking.

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Hey, she started it. Look at pictures where she's waving. If you imagine the index finger, ring finger, and pinky finger curled up, she's clearly giving all of us the finger!

(That makes about as much sense as what you posted. People on those blogs are seriously arguing that, sure his index finger is extended as well as his middle finger, but it's just camouflage. Well, in that case, her waves just have extra camouflage. Good grief.)

your point? there are other crazy people out there?

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you said 30 points a few days ago. can we expect you to STFU if it's close? didn't think so.

Again, nice bet. See you wednesday morning. If you're wrong, promise us you'll never, ever make another comment on this site.

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Just like undecided Democrats in New Hampshire rallied around Hillary because she shed tears in New Hampshire a few days after facing sexist hecklers, I believe some undecideds are going to rally around Obama after ABC's hatchet job of a debate. Especially after the details circulate how Steffie took questions from Hannity and ABC planted Obama haters in the audience to crap on him about questions like flag pins.

Mike Melloy called him BOY GEORGE all night last night! Very funny, but I like Steph too.

I do hope the pundits are all collectively holding their breaths and turning blue still waiting for the dreaded backlash from the "elistist" statements.

Total knowledge we have about what's going to happen on Tuesday: Zero.

You got that right.

Obama seems to be stuck at about 41%. The volatility appears to be on Clinton's side. And I do expect most of the undecideds to break for Clinton.

Here is what I think is going to happen:

Undecideds have gone to Hillary before, but NOT this time!

I think, like many Democratic voters, they KNOW by now that she cannot win anymore, they know her support is gone nationwide. I also think that average Democrats don't want to see this UGLY fight go on, we know as much as we need to know...etc.

Therefore, I predict a break to Obama, or at least, her side of the state, western PA won't come out to vote on Tuesday.

Nutshell: a depressed turnout in her strongholds and a realization that this is over, will make Obama look good on Tuesday night!

For now, if there are no big changes, the average for most polls gives Hillary an 8 point win. I don't think that's what we will see on the 22nd.

May the best win!

I thought another revealing internal was that 55% of those surveyed in PA believe that Obama will be the next Democratic Nominee. This makes me think that a NH style outcome is less likely. Sorry I don't have a link for that stat. Anyone else here recall seeing that within the last week?

Found it. Quinnipiac, April 15.

Obama will win the Democratic nomination, say 55 percent of Pennsylvania likely Democratic primary voters, including 32 percent of Clinton supporters.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1168

Lets check out the updated electoral:

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/4/17/222510/938

you can keep posting that flawed data, it doesn't make it any more accurate.

June 3rd, bub. Make sure you mark it down.

yeah, got that, fella?

Do you have June 3rd on your calendar yet? That's when you can start rooting for McCain officially.

Total knowledge we have about what's going to happen on Tuesday: Zero.

That's what makes elections so interesting.

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All Obama has to do is get the margin close enough where turnout will decide the outcome ... because he's blown Hillary out of the water in that regard the entire campain.

This might go against conventional wisdom, but it seems to me that the candidate who is perceived as being "picked on" seems to do better.

Remember, Hillary won Ohio and the Texas pop. vote after a general feeling (rightly or wrongly) that she was being treated unfair by the media.

Obama MIGHT be benefiting from this same "stand up for the Dem!" feeling.

Of course, there are so many other factors involved here, it's hard to make the case of one thing influencing an election, but it could explain why "12% say something they saw in the debate caused them to change their mind about how they're voting."

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SC, I think this is astute. Everyone loves Rocky. The only question is which one is Rocky.

Total undecided: Nine percent. Total who still might change their mind: 12%. Total knowledge we have about what's going to happen on Tuesday: Zero.

Watching the Clinton camp scramble to move the goal posts just in case: Priceless.

The Shrillaryites are out in full spin mode.

Gee, remember the Wisconsin poll, or the Virginia poll, or the Missouri poll...

Hilarious!

It's like that guy (we all know one) who only knows how to fight by using the "Windmill Tactic." Swing your arms wildly and see if it hits something! A jab to the nose always ends it quickly. I imagine if Obama gets another quick counter-jab to their collective noses (metaphorically speaking, of course), their eyes will tear up pretty fast (metaphorically? not so much). A close finish in Penn. is a pretty good counterpunch IMO.

Love the visual.

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This is what kills me - she has scorched the earth, made a thorough Republican out of herself, dragged Obama through the mud, thrown shit all over every Democrat in this country and this is what she has to show for it.

Good going, Hillary-Joe - you'd be a great president. Yah. Run the economy into the ground, like you have your campaign, which owes money everywhere, never answer a direct policy question but hold George Bush style pressers - you've shown us what a Hillary-Joe presidency would be like and it sucks~

Hillary better work her ass off leading up to april 22nd and here is why

9 polls show her winning by single digits, those polls are:

Rasmussen
Zogby
LA Times/Bloomberg
Strategic vision
Quinnipiac
Franklin & Marshall
Susquehanna
Temple Univ.
Time

1 Poll shows Obama winning:
PPP(D)

5 Polls show her winning by double digits but those polls are a few days old, those polls are:

SurveyUSA
ARG
Insider Advantage
Morning Call
Keystone Poll


SurveyUSA, Insider Advantage, & Quinnipiac is the only 3 polls that are worth listening to (maybe ARG too).

Neither Insider Advantage nor ARG is worth the pixels used to flash them on the screen. In any event, I am predicting a Clinton victory, but a margin in only the single digits.

And of course, we should all listen to you, because you're so objective and dispassionate about the whole thing.

My poll shows you losing, that's the only one worth listening to.

LOL

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I think it's unseemly to LOL at your own comment.

What is it with you people and your tendency to dismiss any poll that you disagree with as either unreliable or part of the vast misogynist conspiracy against your Hillary?

Here's a little hint on when its over. When it gets to the point that your universal response to data you don't like is to close your eyes, stick your fingers in your ears and go "LA-LA-LA-LA-LA NOT LISTENING NOT LISTENING!," it's a sign that its time to give up and move on.

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LA-LA-LA-LA-LA NOT LISTENING NOT LISTENING!

To be very fair, HillaryClinton08 explained the reason why she touts the polls which she touts yesterday, and it has nothing to do with the fact that those happen to be the polls showing Clinton doing well. Indeed, you will notice that she included Quinnipac among the trustworthy polls, and Quinnipac bodes rather ill for Sen Clinton. Rather, HillaryClinton08 suggests that these polls are worthwhile because they have not shown wild fluctuations (unlike the others).

There are, of course, two problems with her line of reasoning. 1) ARG quite definitely has shown wild swings, so even by her own standards it is not worth much. 2) Wild swings in the polls could indicate wild swings in the mood of the electorate; it need not be indicative of failures of the pollsters, especially when so many pollsters are picking up the same dynamic. In any event, however, she is not guilty of the particular sort of willful denials of which you are accusing her.

Could it be that Hillary looked a little too comfortable with the sleazy, whorish episode?

Seriously, I don't know which one of her advisors is telling Hillary to constantly roll her eyes around the room when the camera is on her, but it's not helping to diffuse her growing dishonesty problem. Even worse than dishonest, it makes her look insane.

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Total knowledge we have about what's going to
happen on Tuesday: Zero.

Factor that we will use to explain Tuesday's results: Obama's "small town" comments.

Greg, it is kinda weak that you are making it seem like a toss-up, I'm assuming so that you and camp Hillary can declare "victory" when she squeaks out a 5 point win.

For WEEKS the conventional wisdom has been that anything less than a blowout in PA is an overall loss for Hillary. What has changed? I mean besides a net loss of 50+ Superdelegates.

Day 2 of whininggate and England is laughing at your hero too:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/04/17/wuspolls117.xml

Yes, the world watched him go down in flames.

Did you even read the article you linked to? The headline may have appealed to you like a moth to flame, but the last paragraph pretty much sums up the substance of the debate.

"She was forced to concede for the first time that she thought Mr Obama would defeat John McCain, the Republican candidate, if he faced him in the November general election. "Yes, yes, yes," she said when pressed, undercutting her argument that Mr Obama was unelectable."

Ahh, sweet vindication!

Do you read Toby Harnden regularly? If so, there must be mornings when you choke on your breakfast. He's not exactly in awe of the Clintons.

Yes, yes, yes. We get it.

This debate is IT. The One You've Been Waiting For. The Big Thing that will finally make all these deluded people WAKE UP (TM) and see that Obama is a [pick one or more of the following: (fraud) (sexist) (elitist) (empty suit) (racist) (inexperienced naĂ¯ve incompetent) (snake charmer) (snake oils salesman) (muslim sleeper agent) (bad evil person misogynist of the male gender who is trying to stop America from electing the Only Woman in America Who Will Ever Have a Chance to Become President)]. Yep, you've got him now! He is doomed, doooooomed, BUAHAHAHAHAHA!

Over at Taylormarsh.com, Hillis44.org and MyDD.com, the victory dance has begun.

Meanwhile, we're still here noting that that's what you guys said about:

the time when he said he'd be willing to meet with evil dictators . . .

and,

the time he said if he had actionable intel about senior Al Qaeda figures in Pakistan and General General wouldn't act, he would . . .

and,

The time Michelle said she was proud of America for the first time . . .

and,

over NAFTAgate . . .

and,

over Wrightgate . . .

and,

over Rezko . . .

and,

over Rezko . . .

and,

over the dire secrets you were all sure were hidden in his mortage paperwork . . .

and,

over the Rezko trial . . .

and,

over the dire secrets you were all sure were hidden in his tax returns . . .

and,

over Bittergate . . .

and,

over Rhandi Whatserface . . .

and,

over Monstergate . . .

and, oh, hell, there's a thousand of them. I can't even keep track anymore.

So, unpack that big delivery from the Acme Company, Wyle E., and rub your hands and snicker about the certain success of your next plan. It makes me laugh.

Perfection.

No, no, don't you understand, Steve, this really will do it. This debate will be his downfall, because in the parallel universe from which Gotalife is writing to us, Obama is already desperately trailing Sen Clinton and this will be the last nail in the coffin.

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Great post.

LOL, now ENGLAND decides our elections!?

gotalife, you do know America revolted against England, right?

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he's got a thing for monarchies, go figure.

If you take polls that came out only for this week
(o4-13-08 to 04-18-08)....

6 have her winning by single digits....they are:

Rasmussen
Zogby
LA times/Bloomberg
Strategic Vision
Quinnipiac
Franklin & Marshall

1 showing obama winning.... PPP(D)

2 have her winning by double digits....they are:

SurveyUSA & ARG


Hillary work work work if you want to win by double digits.....work that ass:)

"work that ass"

Nice... and Hillary supporters call US sexist!

I can't stand goatlife and mr. softee because they're obviously trolls. Matt Weaver is honest, but obnoxious. HC08 is honest, mostly positive about her choice and factual, if sometimes skewed. She's showing the polls which don't look good and making a positive message about working to change it. I think *that's* the kind of message I want to hear from HRC supporters.

Well, that and "Congratulations on your win"

Indeed, HillaryClinton08, while I do not agree with her, is a very polite and winsome Clinton supporter and this place is better for the presence of folks like her.

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Could it be that Hillary looked a little too comfortable with the sleazy, whorish episode?

Frankly, if that wasn't a coordinated hit job, then I'm Marie the Queen of Romania.

I couldn't watch the vid all the way through - I got so mad. She's just ready as it gets for those questions - and they let her go and interrupt Obama every 2 minutes.

It looks so much like a setup to me that I am going to have trouble believing it wasn't.

I've seen sensible arguments for undecided voters breaking for either candidate. They employ different rationales, but both made sense.

I picture something like the end of "Apocalypse Now" after this Tuesday. Clinton in the Brando role.

OH! THE BITTERNESS!


...the bitterness!

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Every state wants to count, or be important in some way. The biggest impact Pennsylvania could have, would be to end the race. They would be remembered historically.

This media invention of how Hillary gets a big enough victory to be taken seriously as the nominee, is not going to happen. Pennsylvanians resent all the phoniness of the media starting with the wall to wall crap over the san francisco remarks. It continued Wednesday with the idiocy of the abc people both on the air and behind the scenes. People resent the condecension of the media more than anything Obama said in sf.

The most memorable part of the debate was obama demanding that they cut the crap and address issues.

It is what people want, it is what they are going to vote for next Tuesday, and I sense obama is going to win pa outright. It will be over---and democrats can get down to the business of reminding the country of what John mcCain really stands for.

I speculate that the undecideds will break to Obama in order to end the campaign. The almost issue-free debate was a signal that the campaign has outlived its usefulness and entertainment value.

Additionally, voters should feel a little queasy when they read/hear/see that Hillary is enjoying a debate environment that thrived on its insubstantiality. I thought Hillary was the candidate of substance? That little hypocrisy alone undercuts her campaign image... and it lends gravitas to Obama the so-called "empty suit."

If politics has truly become an extended exercise in image, symbolism, and consent, then Hillary has blown all three and the vote should lean Obama by 1-2%.

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an empty pantsuit!

Ding ding! We have a winner!

Empty pantsuits ARE EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR HILLARY!!!

(God bless Idiotic)

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Has anyone noticed that Rassmussen's last poll in California shows Obama more favorable than Clinton? Didn't She win California? Can't we
put her in the same camp with Mitt re electability
i.e. the more you see of her the less you like her? All her big leads have dwindled (save Ohio)

I think it's probably over if her supporters are pointing to grainy video of Obama's finger placement.

God, it's tiring. Hillary Clinton and her supporters are OUTRAGED over one or another imagined slight nearly daily.

Is this what the Smartest Person In the World's campaign has come to? Flipping through video, looking for "scandal"?

This is how she'll govern. Make no mistake.

All purely political, all the time.

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Ok, use a best probable case scenario for this:

Clinton wins PA by 15 points. What is the fuzzy math on the delegate count? Even if Clinton goes +10 in the delegate count, if anything the absence of landslide level support INCREASE the margin she would need to win Indiana (especially), not to mention the rest of the remaining contests.
--but but Michigan and Florida...
Well, since the time travel technology is not yet perfected to conduct a fair contest in either of those jurisdictions in the past... a future running of those contest (were it practically possible to conduct) would have Michigan running in a fashion just like any of the other post PA contests, ie polls indicating that Clinton could not close a significant gap on Obama. Florida? I have no idea. The point is not even HOW you count it but WHEN you count it, and Florida still has ballots from 2000 that need counting --no?
Obama MAY not be electable in November (cough cough, bullshit, cough) especially if Hill/08 does not at least stand aside and let him try, but you know what? Hill/08 is NOT electable either if Obama doesnt do the same. Personally, I think a trained sealion from the Baltimore aquarium would be more electable than John McSame, but will one enter the race?

I would agree that the indecisive vote (I much prefer that term to "undecided") needs to be watched very closely. Once those late indecisives commit, it's a jail break. If they've ever split 50/50 in an election, I've never heard about it. Both campaigns need to reach them in the last 72 hours and just hope they make their case.
As far as the general election, I remain convinced that all three candidates will find some way to lose.

If she does win Pennsylvania will there be confetti again like Ohio? I loved the confetti. Wasn't over the top at all. (smirk) How can you have the ex-president, governor and every other state official (except one) campaigning for you and only win by single digits? That's not winning, that's an embarrassment.

I don't think Hillary won NH because she cried. I think they emptied out every single retirement home and even some graves to pull a win there, because her campaign would have been over. The results smelled very fishy in NH.

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Alrighty let me try to rephrase that:
566 delegates remaining not including Mich. and Florida...
Of contests won by Hillary, her cumulative win ratio is 1.59 to 1 (not including the unmeasurable disqualified contests) putting the dream scenario completely fudged end result IF she wins all contests and IF her ratio of wins maintains the 1.59 to 1 ratio at: 1854 Hill -- 1867 Obama
How likely is that dreamy dream scenario? Well, Hillary's California and New York wins were significantly below the 1.59 to 1 ratio...
She needs to win all of the remaining contests by better margins of victory than she had in New York or California to finish withing 10 delegates of Obama. We're talking about needing in excess of a +40 delegate pickup in PA to stay on track...

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Not only is it NOT going to happen, all Hillary/08 is doing right now is bleeding cash and momentum from the Democratic ticket in November. (Please don't hate on me for delivering the news ;-))

SurveyUSA is the only pollster that's been able to come close this cycle and their numbers have consistently given the Clintons huge leads:
3/29-3/31 +12
4/5-4/7 +18
4/12-4/14 +14

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html

It has long been that the Clintons would win PA, and I have no doubt they will by big double digits. But even given that huge margin victory, will it matter in the all important delegate count?

Ohio was won by 10 and the Clintons gained only 8 delegates.

Rhode Island was won by 18 and they gained only 11 delegates.

Tennessee was won by 13 and they gained only 12 delegates.

The Clintons biggest success was New York, won by 17 and they gained 46 delegates.

The problem is Obama is ahead by 163 so they would need almost 4 states the size of and margin of victory of New York to catch up...ain't gonna happen.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/tally.phtml

Down deep, most Americans want change. Only one candidate has articulated that view consistently. Charisma counts. Having an organization and raising money count but capturing the aspirations of the multitude really counts. It’s all over but the roar of the crowd.

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