Obama needs to get more than 45% of the vote. That will be a strong showing.

Just like undecided Democrats in New Hampshire rallied around Hillary because she shed tears in New Hampshire a few days after facing sexist hecklers, I believe some undecideds are going to rally around Obama after ABC's hatchet job of a debate. Especially after the details circulate how Steffie took questions from Hannity and ABC planted Obama haters in the audience to crap on him about questions like flag pins.

Lets check out the updated electoral:

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/4/17/222510/938

All Obama has to do is get the margin close enough where turnout will decide the outcome ... because he's blown Hillary out of the water in that regard the entire campain.

Hillary better work her ass off leading up to april 22nd and here is why

9 polls show her winning by single digits, those polls are:

Rasmussen
Zogby
LA Times/Bloomberg
Strategic vision
Quinnipiac
Franklin & Marshall
Susquehanna
Temple Univ.
Time

1 Poll shows Obama winning:
PPP(D)

5 Polls show her winning by double digits but those polls are a few days old, those polls are:

SurveyUSA
ARG
Insider Advantage
Morning Call
Keystone Poll

SurveyUSA, Insider Advantage, & Quinnipiac is the only 3 polls that are worth listening to (maybe ARG too).

Greg, it is kinda weak that you are making it seem like a toss-up, I'm assuming so that you and camp Hillary can declare "victory" when she squeaks out a 5 point win.

For WEEKS the conventional wisdom has been that anything less than a blowout in PA is an overall loss for Hillary. What has changed? I mean besides a net loss of 50+ Superdelegates.

Day 2 of whininggate and England is laughing at your hero too:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/04/17/wuspolls117.xml

Yes, the world watched him go down in flames.

If you take polls that came out only for this week
(o4-13-08 to 04-18-08)....

6 have her winning by single digits....they are:

Rasmussen
Zogby
LA times/Bloomberg
Strategic Vision
Quinnipiac
Franklin & Marshall

1 showing obama winning.... PPP(D)

2 have her winning by double digits....they are:

SurveyUSA & ARG

Hillary work work work if you want to win by double digits.....work that ass:)

I've seen sensible arguments for undecided voters breaking for either candidate. They employ different rationales, but both made sense.

I picture something like the end of "Apocalypse Now" after this Tuesday. Clinton in the Brando role.

OH! THE BITTERNESS!

...the bitterness!

Every state wants to count, or be important in some way. The biggest impact Pennsylvania could have, would be to end the race. They would be remembered historically.

This media invention of how Hillary gets a big enough victory to be taken seriously as the nominee, is not going to happen. Pennsylvanians resent all the phoniness of the media starting with the wall to wall crap over the san francisco remarks. It continued Wednesday with the idiocy of the abc people both on the air and behind the scenes. People resent the condecension of the media more than anything Obama said in sf.

The most memorable part of the debate was obama demanding that they cut the crap and address issues.

It is what people want, it is what they are going to vote for next Tuesday, and I sense obama is going to win pa outright. It will be over---and democrats can get down to the business of reminding the country of what John mcCain really stands for.

I think it's probably over if her supporters are pointing to grainy video of Obama's finger placement.

God, it's tiring. Hillary Clinton and her supporters are OUTRAGED over one or another imagined slight nearly daily.

Is this what the Smartest Person In the World's campaign has come to? Flipping through video, looking for "scandal"?

This is how she'll govern. Make no mistake.

All purely political, all the time.

Ok, use a best probable case scenario for this:

Clinton wins PA by 15 points. What is the fuzzy math on the delegate count? Even if Clinton goes +10 in the delegate count, if anything the absence of landslide level support INCREASE the margin she would need to win Indiana (especially), not to mention the rest of the remaining contests.
--but but Michigan and Florida...
Well, since the time travel technology is not yet perfected to conduct a fair contest in either of those jurisdictions in the past... a future running of those contest (were it practically possible to conduct) would have Michigan running in a fashion just like any of the other post PA contests, ie polls indicating that Clinton could not close a significant gap on Obama. Florida? I have no idea. The point is not even HOW you count it but WHEN you count it, and Florida still has ballots from 2000 that need counting --no?
Obama MAY not be electable in November (cough cough, bullshit, cough) especially if Hill/08 does not at least stand aside and let him try, but you know what? Hill/08 is NOT electable either if Obama doesnt do the same. Personally, I think a trained sealion from the Baltimore aquarium would be more electable than John McSame, but will one enter the race?

If she does win Pennsylvania will there be confetti again like Ohio? I loved the confetti. Wasn't over the top at all. (smirk) How can you have the ex-president, governor and every other state official (except one) campaigning for you and only win by single digits? That's not winning, that's an embarrassment.

Alrighty let me try to rephrase that:
566 delegates remaining not including Mich. and Florida...
Of contests won by Hillary, her cumulative win ratio is 1.59 to 1 (not including the unmeasurable disqualified contests) putting the dream scenario completely fudged end result IF she wins all contests and IF her ratio of wins maintains the 1.59 to 1 ratio at: 1854 Hill -- 1867 Obama
How likely is that dreamy dream scenario? Well, Hillary's California and New York wins were significantly below the 1.59 to 1 ratio...
She needs to win all of the remaining contests by better margins of victory than she had in New York or California to finish withing 10 delegates of Obama. We're talking about needing in excess of a +40 delegate pickup in PA to stay on track...

SurveyUSA is the only pollster that's been able to come close this cycle and their numbers have consistently given the Clintons huge leads:
3/29-3/31 +12
4/5-4/7 +18
4/12-4/14 +14

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html

It has long been that the Clintons would win PA, and I have no doubt they will by big double digits. But even given that huge margin victory, will it matter in the all important delegate count?

Ohio was won by 10 and the Clintons gained only 8 delegates.

Rhode Island was won by 18 and they gained only 11 delegates.

Tennessee was won by 13 and they gained only 12 delegates.

The Clintons biggest success was New York, won by 17 and they gained 46 delegates.

The problem is Obama is ahead by 163 so they would need almost 4 states the size of and margin of victory of New York to catch up...ain't gonna happen.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/tally.phtml