Rasmussen: Hillary Ahead By Just Five Points In Pennsylvania Primary
A new Rasmussen poll of Pennsylvania gives Hillary Clinton only a five-point lead in the Democratic primary. Here are the numbers, compared to last week:
Clinton 47% (-2)
Obama 42% (+3)
The poll also shows that 47% of respondents have followed Hillary's Bosnia-Misstatement story very closely, and another 27% have followed it somewhat closely.
Advertisement
Good news. Is Rasmussen any good? I cannot keep these polling outfits straight.
April 1, 2008 9:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Grover:
Short answer: no. And although this confirms a trend over their past four polls, other (generally more reliable) polling outfits have been producing contradictory results. Before declaring Pennsylvania a tightening race, I'd like to see a couple other repeated polls showing a significant tightening.
But it's not bad news for Obama, and at the very least, it suggests that Hillary hasn't managed to widen her lead.
April 1, 2008 9:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
According to Survey USA's pollster report card, Rasmussen has an average error of 7.61% over 31 polls.
http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/02/06/2008-pollster-report-card-through-super-tuesday-includes-all-pollsters/
The important thing is trends. All pollsters are self-calibrated to some extent, so even if their individual results aren't all that accurate, the poll-to-poll result should show an accurate picture of the trend.
April 1, 2008 10:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe this is why Rendell was trying to lessen expectations on "Morning Joe" today - talking about how a "5, 6, 7" point victory would still be significant. I think Rasmussen has been fairly reliable in the past - but whether or not it is, it's obvious that the Clinton people are paying attention and have already gotten it into their talking points.
April 1, 2008 10:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Clinton supporters wishing this is an April Fools Day prank.
April 1, 2008 9:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
WOW...incredible! Rendell better get back on the air with Fox or all of his hard work is going to go down the drain!
Go Obama!
April 1, 2008 9:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Common idiotic!
One poll does not a trend make, but lets hope we have momentum.
Yes we can.
April 1, 2008 9:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
She'll be smiling freakishly and claiming a glorious comeback even if she wins by 1 point.
April 1, 2008 9:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
SurveyUSA poll has Clinton up by 12. Don't get your hopes up.
April 1, 2008 9:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Survey USA released today has Clinton +12 in Pennsylvania - down from +19 three weeks ago.
She is down 2% points overall and Obama is up 5% since the last poll.
April 1, 2008 9:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
IF she blows her huge lead in PA, this could be over quicker than we thought.
April 1, 2008 9:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
I would like everyone to chill out. This is one poll and we don't want to get too carried away. SurrveyUSA should releases their PA poll today or tomorrow so we'll know if this one was a fluke. SUSA is the most accurate poll this primary cycle
April 1, 2008 9:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Let's resist the urge to read too much into one poll, but......Hot damn! Lookin' good!
April 1, 2008 9:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
April Fools!
April 1, 2008 9:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
To be fair, this is a spike from the whole Bosnia incident. Obama had a similar dip in the polls from Wright. The difference is, Hillary didn't push back against her negative story as proficiently - all people remember from her response is the laughable, lawyer-like term "misspoke." Plus Obama was viewed as the front-runner before and after the scandal hit. I'm interested to see if she bounces back completely in a week from this.
April 1, 2008 9:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
The difference is also that the Bosnia lie a) was said by Hillary and not some associate and b) goes against the entire premise of her campaign.
April 1, 2008 9:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed. Also, I would argue the Bosnia brouhaha would be much more damaging in the general election than the Reverend Wright thing. Imagine the side-by-side comparison of a politician who sensationalizes a USO trip and a former Vietnam P.O.W. - that would be grisly.
April 1, 2008 10:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Rasmussen had it at only ten a week ago? Sounds like an outlier. You get the feeling things are moving in Obama's direction, but five points? This could actually mess with the expectations game.
April 1, 2008 9:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here's to hoping everyone (particularly the media) remembers that she was up 20+ not so long ago.
April 1, 2008 9:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
If you haven't heard it yet, go listen to Obama's stump speech in PA. It is available at the Times, I am sure elsewhere. It is long, 24 minutes, but all gold. There is little doubt in my mind that Obama can take Pennsylvania. Perhaps narrowly, but he can.
April 1, 2008 9:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS EXCELENT NEWS!!! FOR HILLARY!!!!
April 1, 2008 9:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Isn't this copyrighted by Idiotic?
April 1, 2008 10:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Might be but I couldn't resist.
April 1, 2008 1:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah I think this is an outlier. I am sure Obama will improve in the polls, but to get this close this soon? I don't see any realistic way of that happening.
April 1, 2008 9:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ouch...granted it is only one, so I don't want to make a big deal out of it, but the trend seems to be that Hillary isn't going to win big.
April 1, 2008 9:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
As some of you folks may remember way back in aught 7 when we had a slew of state polls the point was to focus on the trends within each poll. Whatever the numbers, if the trends were moving favorably it was a good thing. I think that's the case with the two polls out of PA. Both show favorable trends for Obama. Who knows if he will be able to capitalize on them, but they both contain good news (albeit the Rass poll is better optically, the 7 point narrowing with SurveyUSA is nothing to sneeze at).
April 1, 2008 9:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Look, a lot of people here are missing the point. The point is not whether Rassmussen is off by a few points. The point here, and it is hard to deny, is the SWING. Hillary has been anywhere between 11-20 points ahead in the polls in PA for at least two months now. That there is movement in the other direction, however small, is very significant. If the SWING continues, and has any staying power, Hillary is in deep shit.
So, folks, stop quibbling about a few percentage points here or there. You are looking at a SWING in voter sentiment. That is the key. Obama just has to keep as error and gaffe free as he can for the next few weeks. If he does that Hillary is toast.
April 1, 2008 9:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sun Tzu...my favorite sports preparation book and political science book tells us that Obama is now working the territory and changing his tactics that is now well fortified by Clinton. As a leader Clinton has used fear and ridicule for her forces who will be hard pressed fighting to death on the assaults by the Obama forces working the poorly attended flanks.
Even today's bowling joke was mean-spirited...the kind my sisters would employ back in Middle and High School...self amusement at others expense...
This trend some 22 days out is quite dangerous as if Obama closes to 4 or 5 points in the final weeks the press will have to declare it too close to call and have to talk about the 50-32 point lead she enjoyed around Easter.
April 1, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rasmussen:
3/5
Clinton - 52
Obama - 37
3/12
Clinton -51
Obama - 38
3/24
Clinton - 49
Obama - 39
4/1
Clinton - 47
Obama - 42
3 weeks to go and I see a trend.
April 1, 2008 9:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good reply ... this is the way to do it. Comparing one poll to another is apples and oranges usually, but as was said elsewhere here, within one organization there is some consistency, so a trend, at least, can be discerned.
I'm from PA, and an Obama supporter, so I'm hopeful this is a good sign!
April 1, 2008 10:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Beware of backing HRC into a corner. Claws and teeth. Kitty has dem.
April 1, 2008 9:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
A win in PA would surely end this, but a close second in a state where Hillary was expected to blow him out would be somewhat damaging as well. Lets wait and see.
Over the last few days many party officials were calling for HRC to drop out. I wonder if this is having an impact in PA as well?
April 1, 2008 9:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Plus Obama was viewed as the front-runner before and after the scandal hit.
Middlenames,
I'm assuming you mean generally, and not in the state?
April 1, 2008 9:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
I guess I was unclear about that. Yeah, I was talking more about the wider nomination race and how Clinton has been dipping in most polls.
April 1, 2008 10:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
More reading for Clinton Country:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/chip-collis/top-10-myths-keeping-hill_b_94207.html
April 1, 2008 9:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not sure, does Rasmussen just suck now because they show this spread, or do they always suck.
Whatever, you can be sure it doesn't matter!
April 1, 2008 10:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
SUSA has the race tightening from 19 to 12 points today. Still a wide margin, but the momentum does appear to be swinging Obama's way.
April 1, 2008 10:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here it goes again.
Just like in Texas, California, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, etc., the polls leading into Pennsylvania will once again reveal a stunning Obama surge. Once again, the media and Obama surrogates will start trumpeting the death of Clinton, the end to her campaign at long last. Mark Penn and the rest of Clinton's spokespeople will take the opportunity to move the goalposts, lumping the expectations for victory on Senator Obama, justified by the barrage of favorable polls. The Clinton campaign will interpret repeated calls for her to leave the race as persecution, and start playing the victim. The 'kitchen sink' will also reappear in the final weeks leading into 4/22.
Clinton will leave PA with another large win, plenty of momentum, and a strengthened resolve, and we'll be back where we started (again).
April 1, 2008 10:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
But the death of the Clinton campaign has, in fact, already occurred. Now we've got a warm corpse, with enough vital force left that it's still twitching. But make no mistake: Hillary is a headless chicken, running all over the barnyard in a panic, still unaware that she's already as good as fried.
April 1, 2008 10:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
You do know that over the weekend, Obama won Texas, don't you?
April 1, 2008 10:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
The primary, or total delegate count?
April 10, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
The trend is typical for Obama. He starts from way behind. He narrows the lead. He did the same in Ohio and Texas but didn't win. It is possible that like Texas he will lose the popular vote, but win the delegate count. His strength is in areas that are delegate rich. If he is within 15% in PA, Hillary is over.
April 1, 2008 10:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
If Obama is pulling ahead in PA, I would guess it's because of her crazy, repeated lie about Bosnia which undermines the whole premise of her campaign. That lie was probably a fatal mistake. Her statements about NAFTA will probably come back to haunt her, too.
April 1, 2008 10:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Do not overlook the Senator Casey endorsement factor. It may not be just the Hillary Rambo Clinton, The Heroine of Tuzla, Fairy Tale that is at play here.
April 1, 2008 10:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's human nature for voters in any state at this late date to go along with the rest of the nation and side with the front runner. Nobody likes voting for a loser, especially one who is risking being seen as a sore loser. This is a closed Democratic primary and Pennsylvanian Dems don't want to damage the party anymore than anyone else. I think that's what happening here.
April 1, 2008 10:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
One would think that Clinton would do better in a state that sent Rick Santorum to Ashinton DC . . .
April 1, 2008 10:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'll be the devils advocate.
- Rasumssen higly unreliable wait for Survey USA
- Could be a fleeting affect of Bosnia debacle
- In OH and TX Obama peaked too soon to loose ground in the last week
- Almost 10% Limbaugh Republicans registered as democrats and they could replay TX.
Lower expectations are better for Obama, let the Hillary inevitability in PA prevail. She still has the capacity to register a double digit win- so lets not get too excited.
April 1, 2008 10:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
SurveyUSA shows a 7pts swing for Obama (Clinton up by 12 from 19 last week).
April 1, 2008 10:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good points, Kash. One quibble: the Limbaugh "Dems" won't be as much of a factor in PA as in OH and TX because PA registration closed March 24, at a time when PA didn't look like a close race.
April 1, 2008 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
From Daily Dish
It has now been a week since Clinton said she hoped to release her returns "within the next week." Why the delay?
April 1, 2008 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here we go again with the polls. Maybe there is a trend favoring Obama but I'm sticking with my original expectations--if Obama can narrow her double digit lead, maybe to 10 points, he's done very well.
To broaden my thoughts on this, I no longer accept the narratives fed to us by the MSM either. I find myself just shutting the tv off and doing my own research.
April 1, 2008 10:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, this is a good start. I think it may be linked with the Bosnia story, Casey 's endorsement, and the current bus tour. we will have to wait to see the next polls...
So my concern is to be ready for the sink strategy. She will find something. She is back on the offensive. She is going to Jay Leno, and she is now saying that Senator Obama is denying the right to vote...
On the other end, we still have not seen the tax returns yet, Senator Clinton has not released how much money they have raised this month. Last month they released their number ahead of time...Some of her advisers said that he will be less than last month...Also they said it was a good month, It will be interesting to see how much they raised...
So the fact that she is not paying the bills might also be an issue for her, it certainly will backfire at some points...
But be sure of tone thing, she has been very quiet lately, so I expect negative to come soon...
April 1, 2008 10:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Does anybody doubt that, NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS in Pennsylvania, the Clinton campaign will interpret it as a reason to keep going?
April 1, 2008 11:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
The other thing is, Obama gains support when he campaigns. He has barely started in PA. I think he'll win.
Am I crazy, or doesn't Hillary's serial lying about Bosnia disqualify her from this? The bullshit from her is just too much. It wouldn't surprise me at all for Obama to beat her in PA. What's shocking is that her support isn't melting faster. She's a joke candidate at this point.
She's on with Leno Thursday night. Think he'll have any sniper jokes?
April 1, 2008 11:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
The other thing is, Obama gains support when he campaigns. He has barely started in PA. I think he'll win.
Am I crazy, or doesn't Hillary's serial lying about Bosnia disqualify her from this? The bullshit from her is just too much. It wouldn't surprise me at all for Obama to beat her in PA. What's shocking is that her support isn't melting faster. She's a joke candidate at this point.
She's on with Leno Thursday night. Think he'll have any sniper jokes?
April 1, 2008 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
She's going on Leno? Talking about preaching to her base: lame, old people.
April 1, 2008 11:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think it's an odd choice of venue. Leno's probably the only comedian out there still telling Lewinski jokes.
April 1, 2008 11:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
haha, seriously!
April 1, 2008 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Does he still have the dancing Judge Itos?
April 1, 2008 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Isn't that the truth. I stopped watching Leno in 2003 when he was still telling Clinton jokes every single night. In the few times I have watch his monologue since I have yet to hear one that didn't include at least one joke about Bill Clinton.
I know the Lewinski scandal was a comedians dream come true but at some point it becomes less about the joke and more about just being mean spirited. I think after 8 years he has crossed that line.
April 1, 2008 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Replace "mean spirited" with "a hack" and I'm with you.
April 1, 2008 2:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't get so excited.
This same polling group (Rasmussen) had Clinton tied with Obama in NC a week or so ago.
Clinton is ahead by double digits in internal polling.
Obama should step off. Clinton's got it sewed up!
Rae
April 1, 2008 11:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
You must be high.
April 1, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR HILLARY!!!
April 1, 2008 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
It all about trends.
Trends.
Trends.
Trends.
Trends.
Trends.
Trends.
Trends.
Repeat after me:
It all about trends.
April 1, 2008 12:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Today (47 – 42) C+5
3/24/08 (49 – 39) C+10
3/13/08 (51 – 38) C+13
3/6/08 (52 – 37) C+15
It's all about Trends.
April 1, 2008 12:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pennsylvania will be tighter than expected. Remember that when Obama has a chance to campaign in a state, he does well. He didn't really have much time to campaign in Ohio and Texas, or the other "big states". This time he has about 6 weeks. Don't be surprised if it's not a blowout, or even if he eeks out a win there.
April 1, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't tell me you want sincerity in your politicians? Isn't that a little much to ask for? ;-)
April 1, 2008 3:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is all the mistatements, lending campaign money, firing staff during her campaign an indication of how she her administration would run if elected?
April 10, 2008 12:16 PM | Reply | Permalink