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Rasmussen: Clinton Ahead By Five In Pennsylvania
A new Rasmussen poll of Pennsylvania gives Hillary Clinton a five-point lead going into tomorrow' primary, a potential increase from her lead three days ago:
Clinton 49% (+2)
Obama 44% (+0)
This is the fifth consecutive Rasmussen poll that gives Clinton only a single-digit lead here. At this point, how the seven percent undecideds break will make the difference between a big Clinton victory or perhaps even an Obama upset win.
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I think this is good news, given it's Rasmussen.
Must mean she's really 15 points behind...
April 21, 2008 10:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm just praying it's a single digit loss. I have no illusions about an upset.
I'm worried about this "street money" issue in Philly as well, because that's where he needs to rack up a huge margin.
April 21, 2008 10:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Having lived in Philly, I get the feeling that most likely voters will turn out whether or not the precinct captains get their payoffs.
April 21, 2008 11:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Win For Hillary Is All But Impossible
April 21, 2008 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
I like it that that is know quantity going in -
I like it a lot.
April 21, 2008 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think we are in a good position to "beat the spread" here, and come in at less then a 10 point loss.
Considering that Hillary needs to win by 25, and that she started at +20, that's a pretty impressive accomplishment :)
If Clinton doesn't win by 25 points, she has no chance of winning the nomination.
April 21, 2008 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Do you really think that a 20 point win keeps her alive?
April 21, 2008 10:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
if she wins by over 20 then the media will keep her alive until May 6th.
April 21, 2008 11:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
If Clinton wins by 20%, she'll be in about the same position she was in before, she'll need to win all the remaining states by like 18-20% on average.
She basically needs to win all the remaining states by 20%. If she gets less then 20% in PA, that number will go up. If she gets more then 20%, that number will go down.
April 21, 2008 11:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm seeing it that way too. The polls are aiming for a 5 to 10 win for Hillary, and I'm sure Obama would take that in a heartbeat.
April 21, 2008 11:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
44+49 doesn't equal 100%, so you are missing 7%.
Late breakers go for Hillary, and did in Ohio.
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/04/obamas-ceiling-in-pa-about-42.php
April 21, 2008 11:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
15 pt is likely. Less than 15pt would be good for him. I don't want to see a 20pt win for her.
It coudl be grim. I don't think I want to watch the coverage ....
April 21, 2008 11:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Internals are probably similar to PPP's number's (49/46), becuase here's what Obama said today:
http://thepage.time.com/2008/04/21/obama-looks-to-tuesday-i-think-its-going-to-be-pretty-close/
He wouldn't have said that if internals were good.
April 21, 2008 11:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Rephrase: He wouldn't have said that if the internals WEREN'T good.
April 21, 2008 11:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
All that and that gravatar, too.
;)
Thanks joshuablog.
April 21, 2008 11:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
From Bloomber:
CLINTON NEEDS PENNSYLVANIA LANDSLIDE
TO CATCH OBAMA:
April 21, 2008 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Absolutely brilliant post at FiveThirtyEight.com today.
It's the turnout, stupid! [UPDATED]
Monday, April 21, 2008
The post explores the bizarre SUSA outliers, and finds a viable sounding explanation.
Absolutely essential reading.
April 21, 2008 11:37 AM | Reply | Permalink