This confirms what other polls have been saying, though - Obama's been narrowing the gap in PA.

I would just like to repeat that the 15 + two out of the three (PN/OH/FL)was a BRILLIANT success for Al Gore in 2000 and great in 2004 for John Kerry. I have enjoyed BOTH of their Democratic Presidencies.

Personally, I would like to try Obama's expanded electoral map and tell Ohio and Florida to go screw themselves. They haven't come through in the past, and I doubt they will again this year. And frankly Florida couldn't run a competant election if only 3 people cast ballots.

Let's try for Colorado, Nevada, Utah, New Mexico, The Dakotas, and Virgina. All places Obama is running extremely well!

I'm ready for a different strategy than the one that led tow two terms of George W. Bush

Surely it's worth pointing out that the only one of these states where the poll has McCain ahead of Obama is one in which Obama has not campaigned?

It doesn't take profound political science to notice that polls change drastically when Obama favors a state with his personal attention.

'Not significantly down' in PA? Her 12-point lead is now a 9-point lead, a 25% decline? How is that not significant, Eric?

Isn't it time someone pointed out that McCain is tied, at best, in national polls and in swing states despite receiving favorable press while running unopposed the last month?

This election is going to be a blowout.

This election is going to be a blowout.

I may well be and I'm sick of the rumors running around that somehow Obama's campaign is being secretly run by the Rush Chaos Squad. In the first place, I don't believe there really is such a thing.

But anecdotally, I'll tell y'all what a Republican who is supporting Obama told me: "I am convinced the next president will be a Democrat and I don't want it to be Hillary Clinton."

I don't find this particular sinister, but I got an email yesterday from Makethemaccountable, with a post from myDD, of all places, and the Clinton campaign is now saying that Obama won the delegate count in Texas because Repugs want to run against him and they voted in the caucuses for him for that reason and because Rush Limbaugh told them to. I do not think that's true at all - that's not what I've been told my any number of Dallas Republicans whom I know well and who wouldn't feed me a load of bullshit.

Eric's become the concern troll of TPM.

Why do you guys keep posting "snapshot" polls? Rather then "Clinton leads by 9" it should be "Clinton lead narrows from 13 to 9"

Anyway, Obama has said that anything less then a 10 point loss would be a win for his team. All they have to do here is "beat the spread" or at least not get crushed.

perhaps it is worth noting that clinton and mccain have both campaigned in florida-- clinton as first lady and mccain in 2000. the voters familiarity with those candidates could help explain why obama remains behind in florida-- he has not campaigned there yet. the primary season has shown that obama gains support wherever he campaigns (just as the numbers are getting tighter in PA).
peace
gkp

PPP has Obama up 2 in PA?

I don't think I really buy that (although I'd love to believe it) but, again, it just supports all the other polls that show him closing the gap.

You know, this talk about where each candidate is polling against McCain is truly asinine. THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IS SPLIT DOWN THE MIDDLE! OF COURSE MCCAIN POLLS WELL!

Once we have a nominee, McCain's numbers will be in the shitter. Whether we're talking about campaign fundraising or votes cast so far, BOTH Democrats are so far ahead of McCain that he's hardly in the race. I suspect, once Obama finally wins the nomination, McCain be 10 points or more behind within a week.

Damn! And I was all fired up about the Rasmussen poll from yesterday!

My heart can't take much more of this daily polling. I sit here pressing "refresh", wondering when the next poll is going to be published!

"Obama is a candidate made to beat someone like McCain; however, McCain is a candidate made to beat someone like Hillary."

Something cool (by blogger cm) in Ambinder.

Read the rest of the good stuff by cm here.

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/04/icymi_mccain_makes_fun_of_lett.php

Josh & Greg, Ambinder and DU have a preview (of posts) facility. You guys plan do to some improvements here ?

(Of course, now that you have done a dang job on having to sign in every 19.98 seconds, I would expect you to take this up asap, right ?)

OK, I haven't been wanting to claim a TPM Hillary bias, but that headline combined with the cherry-picking of swing states to highlight is making it pretty blatant. Your presentation ignores that Obama is still ahead of McCain in two of those states and conveniently avoids mention of the many other swing states that Obama brings into play, like Colorado and Virginia.

Ignore the PPP poll. All it will do is allow Hillary to move the goalposts. There is NO way Obama is winning in Pa. at the moment. His campaign needs to tamp down expectations, because each time he is surging and about to KO Hillary, something happens, and she becomes the Comeback Kid. It drives me mad.

With all Obama's money (Obama spends money like its growing on trees --- for every dollar Clinton spends, Obama spends 5 dollars!) and with the media thinking Obama is JFK, RFK, Martin luther King, Jr., Mandela, and Christ himself, why isn’t Obama winning by leaps and bounds? Obama only wins when he can spend massive money and buy people! And this myth that when you get to know him you like him is getting old --- ask Ohio, California, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Florida, Texas, and other states where he campaigned! Obama does alot of spinning --- he should have vertigo from the spinning!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hillary will win Pennsylvania no problem!
Obama should quit! NOT HILLARY!

If you have not read Josh Putnam's brilliant analysis of the match-up polls, I cannot encourage you to do so too strongly. The take-home point: for every big state that Obama's candidacy helps McCain take, there is an equal or larger number of electoral votes that Obama picks off of McCain's plate in other states. As such, this "he is not winning the big swing states" argument is beside the point. The total number of electoral votes, not the particular combination of states won, is the really important factor in the end, and by that metric Obama is ahead of Clinton.

To poorly paraphrase the Lord, what does it profit a woman to gain all of Ohio but to lose the overall electoral college?

Another Super Delegate goes into the Obama column:

Wed Apr 2, 8:50 AM ET

PHILADELPHIA (Reuters) - Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama on Wednesday won the endorsement of Lee Hamilton, a former Indiana congressman who is a leading U.S. authority on foreign relations and national security.
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The support of Hamilton, who co-chaired two blue-ribbon commissions that investigated the September 11 attacks and advised President George W. Bush on the war in Iraq, could boost the Illinois senator in his May 6 Indiana primary contest against New York Sen. Hillary Clinton.

Hamilton said Obama offers American voters the best chance to create a new sense of national unity and transcend division.

"He champions the politics of consensus, not of partisan division," the longtime Democratic Party figure said in a statement. "He is driven by the search for the common good."

Hamilton, also backed Obama on foreign relations, an area where the White House hopeful has been criticized for inexperience.

"His foreign policy is pragmatic, visionary and tough," said Hamilton, former Democratic chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives committees on foreign affairs and intelligence.

"He will work with our friends and allies. He will strengthen our ability to use all tools of American power and relentlessly promote the American values of freedom and justice for all people."

It was the latest key Democratic endorsement for Obama in his race against Clinton for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination. The two face hard-fought primary election battles in both Indiana and Pennsylvania in the next several weeks.

Obama also has picked up other endorsements recently from New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson and Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey.

Hamilton represented Indiana in the House from 1965 through 1999. He now is president and director of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

While both the Quinnipiac and the PPP polls were based on relatively large samples (1200-1500 likely voters), the Quinnipiac poll was conducted over an entire week (3/24-3/31), whereas the PPP poll was completed on Monday and Tuesday.

Clinton's campaign took big hits over her Bosnia amnesia at the end of last week, and many of those surveyed in the early days of the Quinnipiac poll would not have been affected. All of the respondents in the PPP poll had a chance to hear about the Bosnian flap.