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Polls: Revote Battle May Have Hurt Obama In Florida, But Not Michigan
A new pair of polls from Michigan and Florida casts some doubt on the argument over whether the arguments over the states' rogue primaries would make one Democrat more electable than the other in these particular states:
Michigan (EPIC-MRA)
Obama (D) 43%, McCain (R) 41%
McCain (R) 46%, Clinton (D) 37%
Florida (Rasmussen)
McCain (R) 53%, Obama (D) 38%
Clinton (D) 45%, McCain (R) 44%
A failure to hold a revote or honor the January primary doesn't appear to have made Hillary Clinton more electable than Barack Obama in Michigan. On the other hand, it is possible but not conclusive that Obama has been hurt in Florida by the primary fiasco.
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To make out that either of these polls has any casualty or correlation to the "re-vote" nontroversy is rather tenuous at best, and bordering on the laughable.
April 14, 2008 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
This Michigan poll is revealing. Clinton can't win with out Michigan. Obama can win without Florida.
April 14, 2008 3:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama does n ot need, has never needed, and will not need Florida in 2008.
THANK GOODNESS!
Florida f***ed it up in 2000.
Florida got it wrong in 2004.
Florida caused nothing but drama in 2008.
I am GRATEFUL that a democrat has an electoral plan that doesn't rely on Florida. Whewww!
Note the polls have Obama ahead of McCain in Pennsylvania and Michigan. EXCELLENT!
April 14, 2008 3:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
I do not like the idea of writing off a state completely nor do I agree with your take on the 2000 election (the state of Florida, after all, had nothing to do with the Supreme Court's shameless Bush v Gore settlement of that dispute). That said, I very much agree with your larger point. Counting on Florida is a dangerous business. I expect McCain to win it in the end anyway. If Obama stands a better chance than Clinton does in MI, this strikes me as far more significant a factor vis-a-vis "electability" than the fact that Clinton fares better than Obama against McCain in FL.
April 14, 2008 4:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Florida has gone Democratic three times since the Truman Administration: 1964, 1976 and 1996. That's it. 1964 was the biggest Democratic landslide in history. 1976 was when Carter won on the anti-Republican recoil from Watergate. In 1996, Bill won a plurality of 48% because Perot pulled almost 10% of the vote away from Dole. And, of course, we didn't even need 'em that year.
Write it off, already. If we have more money than the R's, it's worth spending some time and money there to force them to do the same. But if we have to count on it to take us over the top in the Electoral College, we're hosed before we start.
April 14, 2008 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
The State of Florida, in the person of Katharine Harris, certainly had SOMETHING to do with Bush v. Gore.
April 14, 2008 4:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hm, I simply disagree. Do you really think that Justice Scalia (for instance) would have voted differently than he had if Florida had been represented by Lawton Chiles instead of Ms Harris?
April 14, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would argue it was more of an instance of Clinton-fatigue writ large.
April 14, 2008 9:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't agree, but I don't disagree either. Definitely don't write off Florida, but we can't keep relying on it the way we have for the past few election cycles.
April 14, 2008 5:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well said!!
I totally agree.
April 14, 2008 3:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the scroll troll from the former Bush staffer who now works for Bill Bennett.
Stunning to know that Republicans don't like Obama.
I would not that all of Clinton's demagoguery on Florida has brought her to a tie with McCain. And that's before Joe Lieberman, the man she and her husband put back in the Senate, starts touring old folks' homes to tell people John McCain is the better president for Israel.
April 14, 2008 3:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
thanx for pointing that out.
off the topic:over at the huff post, Rep. Geoff Davis called Obama "THAT BOY" and said he couldn't trust him with THE button. is it true that it could be a racism issue?
April 14, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
No surprise there. It is rare indeed to find a set of right-wing talking points that you are not eager to endorse.
April 14, 2008 3:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
RaeKKK is an A.N.T.
ANT(Aryan Nation Troll) Here is who this ANT is applauding:
Peter H. "Pete" Wehner served until March 2007 as Deputy Assistant to the President and Director of Strategic Initiatives,[1] running "the White House Office of Strategic Initiatives (or the Office of Strategery, as it is known inside the building after a 'Saturday Night Live' skit spoofing the president's mangling of the English language)."[2]
"Bush speechwriter Peter Wehner worked for William Kristol when he was chief of staff to then-Education Secretary William J. Bennett."
April 14, 2008 4:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Does that mean that Thomas Frank, author of WHAT'S THE MATTER WITH KANSAS is arrogant too?
April 15, 2008 8:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Unless the question asked in those polls is specifically related to the revote question, I don't see how you can clearly draw conclusions about how the revote issue has effected the voters. I also think the revote issue can't be limited to just those two states. Obama is being perceived nation-wide as the one who either wants no revotes, or the one who wants the original vote recalculated as a 50/50 tie. Hillary is perceived (correctly) as the one who won both those states, and the one who is being disadvantaged by not counting them. Obama's desire to keep Michigan and Florida out is just a typical political game which further undermines Obama's claim to be a different kind of politician.
April 14, 2008 3:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great point.
Josh should hire you to write here.
April 14, 2008 4:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're right that this has been misreported. In both cases, the re-votes the Clinton camp proposed were carefully written to favor her, and she wouldn't allow for any other scenarios. She couldn't have things her way, so she didn't want to play. More Calvinball. In MI, for instance, she wanted to exclude all newly registered Democrats.
That's some great party building and long-term thinking there, isn't it?
April 14, 2008 5:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
She won Michigan?
You are insane. She, Gravel and Kucinich (who unsuccessfully TRIED to get his name off the ballot) were the only ones on the ballot. NOBODY even seriously entertains the notion thinks she won Michigan except for the deluded.
April 14, 2008 5:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is it possible to ban trolls at TPMCafe? The parent commenter is developing a consistent record.
For the onlookers, it's well known that Obama supported a revote where he would be on the *ballot* and the DNC would count it, while Clinton blocked a revote, and was demanding that the results of the original Soviet-style election be counted. Clinton, after changing her tune once it was too late, then demanded impossible conditions for revotes and tried to blame Obama for it.
Of course, the Michigan Democratic Party leadership was even more to blame for the fiasco.
April 14, 2008 10:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is a provocative thesis for which I have no evidence save the anecdotal, but I will go so far as to postulate that Clinton's pushing of the issue has actually hurt her in Michigan. More than a few Michiganders on the Democratic side perceived their primary vote to have been badly flawed and thus feel that it would be a disservice to their own interests to have its results taken at face value. By working this issue so aggressively, Sen Clinton has made herself an easy target for those who were irked at Gov Granholm (a rather prominent Clinton backer) for getting the state into this mess in the first place.
April 14, 2008 3:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
This may be anecdotal, and I don't know how widely it has been disseminated, but I have read that the governor pushed so hard for the new date at least in part to try to help Clinton secure the nomination, given the early lead that she had in so many other large states. She is even now a big Clinton supporter.
So if this is true, it's possible that voters think that the primary fiasco was attributable, in part, to Clinton supporters and hold Clinton vicariously responsible for trying to capitalize on it so blatantly.
April 14, 2008 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Anything about intention tends to read more like a conspiracy theory than anything else, unless the governor signed a letter stating nothing less than, "I, _______, do indeed believe that in order to make sure that Senator Clinton becomes the Democratic nominee, we must push our primary up into January."
April 14, 2008 5:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Without the internals it's hard to say that the lack of a re-vote is what hurts Obama in Florida. Could it be because there are more people who don't like his skin color there? Or they don't like his health care plan? Or old people like to vote for old people? Or the fact that he hasn't campaigned there?
Me no likey giving up on FL this early. Also, I have poll fatigue.
April 14, 2008 3:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also, while this is a Drudge 'scoop', it is telling. Is anyone else picking this up?
Guess who McCain wants to run against? Hillary!
http://www.drudgereport.com/flash1jm.htm
April 14, 2008 3:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Would it hurt TPM to mention somewhere that it was NOT Obama's decision to not hold a revote in Florida, but the Democratic Party of Florida's decision?
Thank you.
April 14, 2008 3:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Eric's operating under the assumption that Obama is going to be the nominee (because there's no mention of Hillary's potential defeat in Michigan), and he's the Democrat. If there is any backlash against the DNC's decision, it will come against the Democratic candidate.
Obama will lose Florida because the average Florida voter...well, they have a lot in common with 72 year old McCain.
April 14, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm from Florida. The fact that there is no revote has nothing to do with Obama's relative lack of support down there. I do not believe Florida is in play this year. Charlie Crist pretty much won McCain the election, and Crist has close to 70% approval. FL is going red this year...
April 14, 2008 3:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, that may be where Florida is at now. Where will it be in November when A Great Economic Depression has engulfed the land, and Florida homes are in massive defaults, and the states property taxes are lost, and the schools, health care and municipal services have to be cut way back, and crime soars, and the war is still raging, and the projected national deficit for 2009 will be one trillion, and the collapsed dollar has driven all food, energy , and all import prices through the roof:
Where will the voters be then. Will McCain look good to them then. Are they really craving for the New Herbert Hoover. Do they crave Grapes of Wrath that much. Gee perhaps they may actually love the bitter life. We shall see.
April 14, 2008 4:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
The only way to settle this is to give Florida back to Cuba, and to give Texas back to Mexico.
April 14, 2008 3:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
If McCain wins, I move to give my home state of MO back to France. I dare say that I would rather have Pres Sarkozy than Pres McCain, and besides, this would make me slightly wealthier when my salary was suddenly paid in euros instead of dollars.
April 14, 2008 4:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't say Bush never did anything for you.
April 14, 2008 4:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Does Mexico have to take the Bush's? Cuba can have Jeb if that makes negotiations go smoother. I'm in.
April 14, 2008 4:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Does anyone else get the sense that Texas - with Obama - is more in play than it's been since, I don't know, LBJ? Put Richardson on the ticket and who knows.
April 14, 2008 4:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Obama's lack of support compared to Hillary has to do with the fact he never campaigned there. FL will probably go for McCain whoever is the nominee but the numbers showing Obama much further down probably has to do with her being a better known entity.
And to those who wanna say "Campaign has been going on for months... people know Obama" I will point out to you the polls in PA. Whatever happens in Bittergate the model was working. As soon as he started to campaign there, things started to tighten
April 14, 2008 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Except he never campaigned in Michigan either.
April 14, 2008 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Otto, I typically read your posts and think, "well, he has a right to think that..." and go on. Of course you have a right to think this:
"Hillary is perceived (correctly) as the one who won both those states..."
But it is an insult to your own intelligence to think that she "won" these states fairly. Yes, I would be saying the same thing about Obama had he gone against his own pledge and competed in those states. It would be like telling your buddy that you can't show up to play a game of Horse because you disagree with the rules, and then going outside and sinking 5 layups and calling yourself the winner. Or something like that...
April 14, 2008 4:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
He also never campaigned in Florida and that isn't a part of the country or a demographic that would naturally go to Obama, so it isn't necessarily related to the revote nonsense.
April 14, 2008 4:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
All I got to say, as a Michigander, is yup. That's pretty much how it's been. Don't like Clinton, willing to give Obama a chance.
After all, 40% of the voters were willing to come out on a cold January day and vote for "Uncommitted" instead of for Clinton. There probably would've been more if it weren't for those goofs who tried to give Paul a bit more time in the Republican race.
April 14, 2008 4:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
hey, you calling me a goof?
April 14, 2008 4:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Uh, affectionately calling you a goof, I guess.
If you've still got the Paul sign in your yard like some neighbors of mine, I'd call you a nutjob.
April 14, 2008 7:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
no, but the next door neighbor planted a chestnut tree. harvesting will be a nut-job.
April 14, 2008 8:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is also "possible but not conclusive" that Greg is just talking out of his ass here.
This poll provides *no* evidence that the rogue primary/re-vote issue had any effect one way or another on the respondent's preferences.
But - if you want to speculate - it is also "possible but not conclusive" that Obama's having never campaigned in the state (unlike the other candidates, and I'm counting previous election cycles here) is affecting the poll results.
Just sayin'.
April 14, 2008 4:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Um, sorry about that Greg - it's Eric I should have been referring to above. Whether Greg is or is not talking out of his ass is not at issue on this thread.
April 14, 2008 4:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
By November:
The economy will have sunken into A Great Depression.
McCain has the same policies as Herbert Hoover.
If people are not bitter now, they will be after McCain has fed them a steady diet of his Grapes of Wrath.
April 14, 2008 4:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
A lot of these "revote battles" are ginned up by MI and FL politicians who made the wrong guesses about how to assert their states' influence in the primary; they gambled that moving up illegally would work, and it didn't, and now they are embarrased and looking for other ways to be "champions of the people."
But one thing I find very strange in the endless national wrangling/interpreting now is the idea that HRC would strongly win revotes in BOTH states. She has, all along, done much better in FL for the usual demographic reasons, and run about even or even behind Obama in MI. These general election "horce race" polls suggest this pattern about the differences in underlying support for the two Democrats.
In the end, Dems nationally should just seat FL with some advantage to HRC, and seat MI with a 50/50 split and be done with it. These moves will not fundamentally change the overall outcome of the nomination battle. This is what will eventually happen, I suppose.
April 14, 2008 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
and after the real fake sinbad, the real fake theda skocpol? I think at this point we all need a real fake josh marshall too...
April 14, 2008 4:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Absolutely.
I don't want a candidate the Republicans like and they sure seem to like Hillary Clinton at the moment.
April 14, 2008 4:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
The thought of anyone around Bill "I'm the Morals' Czar, not a hypocrite because I'm obese and a gambling addict" Bennett accusing Obama of being an elitist is beyond funny.
April 14, 2008 4:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bittergate is still alive in the corporate media.
Still no apology so it will stay in the media.
Snobama should go ahead drop out so we can focus on crushing mcwar.
It is getting embarrassing for him and a career killer.
April 14, 2008 4:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama up 10 in Gallup today over Clinton in WSJ, up two on McCain. WSJ reports that Quinnipiac sees no real poll movement over this nontroversy.
Your point wins the Most Out of Touch With Reality Award, which is fought over with great vigor at this site.
Yes, he should _drop out now_. Are you an alias of some low level staffer at the RNC?
April 14, 2008 5:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
NBC nightly news just showed Hillary getting booed by the crowd when she harped on this again. In the Republican tradition, the Clinton people said the booers were all union troublemakers.
April 14, 2008 7:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
If this was true, you would be in a position where you would be called upon to be ashamed of yourself because this is nothing more than a sound bite smear and if that's how you want your candidate to win - that makes you a Republican, IMO.
April 14, 2008 4:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama problem in FL is much more about age demographics.
April 14, 2008 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
The entire state of Florida reminds me of Waco, Texas. There are 14 state courts of appeal in Texas and one of them is in Waco. When I worked for the Dallas Court of Appeals, we always got every court's opinions every week and read them because some consistency is expected among the courts. Waco never ever ever did what everyone else was doing. They really are Wacko there because you just never know with them.
And that's what Florida reminds me of.
April 14, 2008 4:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tena-- your gravatar? Clara Bow?
April 14, 2008 5:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I want some one who is among the best and the brightest to lead the nation. In other words; someone with Elite qualifications. Hillary says that she does not meet those requirements, so you should only hire her if you crave more of the same:
"Some one you would like to have a beer with"
Well you got him folks, for the past seven years. How has that worked out for you.
Hillary, Shot and a Beer, Clinton is running for Bush's third term.
Hillary thinks that the American Voters are so stupid that they will keep falling for the same Bullshit over and over.
Will you? Hillary believes that you will.
Are you really craving for George W. Bush in a Kevlar, sniper defying, Pantsuit!!!!
April 14, 2008 4:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's about 20 years too young for Florida voters.
April 14, 2008 5:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Louise Brooks. One of my minor heroines - she was gorgeous, totally fearless, very very intelligent and did just what she wanted to.
:)
April 14, 2008 5:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Doesn't Florida have an anti-gay marriage measure on the ballot this year? I dont' think Florida has ever been in the cards for the Dems this year.
The Clintons have no shot unless they have a series of polls in other states that show her to have a SIGNIFICANT advantage. I don't think those polls will be there at the end of the day. On the contrary, I think the polls will all be in Obama's favor. All this hand-wringing will end in June - if not sooner.
April 14, 2008 7:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Do you think a point will come where people will just toss off some kind of compromise where the Florida vote goes through as is (just to make Floridians happy) but the Michigan one doesn't?
April 14, 2008 8:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nope I don't think Obama will give Hillary the Florida delegates because it would make him look weak. Besides it is very probable that this election is going to the convention ugh! Fast forward me four years please after Hillary has lost the election against McCain because the African-American voters and a lot of others stay home. There's no way the party leaders deserve their loyalty after this.
April 14, 2008 10:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Floridians really don't care that much about the delegate thing. Clinton people claim we are bitter about it, but we really aren't. It's McCain country: lots of Southern rednecks, Cuban-Americans, Lieberman Dems, and old people. Make it a 49-state strategy.
April 14, 2008 11:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Word to the wise -- avoid Florida. Governor Crist is holding down the plantation and I will advise the Obama campaign not to spend a cent in that state.
April 15, 2008 1:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wow. Louise Brooks. Very, very sexy.
April 15, 2008 3:12 PM | Reply | Permalink