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Polls: Revote Battle May Have Hurt Obama In Florida, But Not Michigan

A new pair of polls from Michigan and Florida casts some doubt on the argument over whether the arguments over the states' rogue primaries would make one Democrat more electable than the other in these particular states:

Michigan (EPIC-MRA)
Obama (D) 43%, McCain (R) 41%
McCain (R) 46%, Clinton (D) 37%

Florida (Rasmussen)
McCain (R) 53%, Obama (D) 38%
Clinton (D) 45%, McCain (R) 44%

A failure to hold a revote or honor the January primary doesn't appear to have made Hillary Clinton more electable than Barack Obama in Michigan. On the other hand, it is possible but not conclusive that Obama has been hurt in Florida by the primary fiasco.


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To make out that either of these polls has any casualty or correlation to the "re-vote" nontroversy is rather tenuous at best, and bordering on the laughable.

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This Michigan poll is revealing. Clinton can't win with out Michigan. Obama can win without Florida.

Obama does n ot need, has never needed, and will not need Florida in 2008.

THANK GOODNESS!

Florida f***ed it up in 2000.

Florida got it wrong in 2004.

Florida caused nothing but drama in 2008.

I am GRATEFUL that a democrat has an electoral plan that doesn't rely on Florida. Whewww!

Note the polls have Obama ahead of McCain in Pennsylvania and Michigan. EXCELLENT!

I do not like the idea of writing off a state completely nor do I agree with your take on the 2000 election (the state of Florida, after all, had nothing to do with the Supreme Court's shameless Bush v Gore settlement of that dispute). That said, I very much agree with your larger point. Counting on Florida is a dangerous business. I expect McCain to win it in the end anyway. If Obama stands a better chance than Clinton does in MI, this strikes me as far more significant a factor vis-a-vis "electability" than the fact that Clinton fares better than Obama against McCain in FL.

Florida has gone Democratic three times since the Truman Administration: 1964, 1976 and 1996. That's it. 1964 was the biggest Democratic landslide in history. 1976 was when Carter won on the anti-Republican recoil from Watergate. In 1996, Bill won a plurality of 48% because Perot pulled almost 10% of the vote away from Dole. And, of course, we didn't even need 'em that year.

Write it off, already. If we have more money than the R's, it's worth spending some time and money there to force them to do the same. But if we have to count on it to take us over the top in the Electoral College, we're hosed before we start.

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The State of Florida, in the person of Katharine Harris, certainly had SOMETHING to do with Bush v. Gore.

Hm, I simply disagree. Do you really think that Justice Scalia (for instance) would have voted differently than he had if Florida had been represented by Lawton Chiles instead of Ms Harris?

I would argue it was more of an instance of Clinton-fatigue writ large.

I don't agree, but I don't disagree either. Definitely don't write off Florida, but we can't keep relying on it the way we have for the past few election cycles.

April 14, 2008, 1:50 a.m. Off-the-Record Obama The Politics of Meaning on steroids.

By Peter Wehner

Senator Barack Obama finds himself in the midst of a controversy in the aftermath of comments that he made at a private fundraiser in San Francisco on April 6, during which he explained his difficulty appealing to working-class voters in Pennsylvania. He said, “It’s not surprising that they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment. . . .”

Senator Obama’s words are significant because they were said off-the-record, meaning they provided a more authentic glimpse into the attitudes of Obama than a carefully scripted event. Nonetheless, his words were not merely careless; his comments were based on a carefully constructed, if deeply condescending, explanation.

Beneath the enormous charm and cool persona of Obama beats the heart of an arrogant man. With increasing frequency, the 46-year-old one-term senator from Illinois orates as though he resides at Olympian Heights. By his presumptuous demeanor, he suggests that he sees what no one else sees, and can do what no other person can do; he is America’s healing balm.

Even his efforts at damage control radiate arrogance. Speaking in Muncie, Indiana, after the story broke, Obama said “Lately, there has been a little, typical sort of political flare-up because I said something that everybody knows is true, which is that there are a whole bunch of folks in small towns in Pennsylvania, in towns right here in Indiana, in my home town in Illinois who are bitter.”

The flare-up, you see, happened because Obama is the Great Truth-Teller amidst the masses, many of whom can’t handle the truth. Once it dawned on Obama’s aides that expediency demanded an apology, the Senator offered a qualified mea culpa: “Obviously, if I worded things in a way that made people offended, I deeply regret that.”

So if Senator Obama worded things in a way that made people feel offended (rather than worded things in a way that is offensive), well, he regrets that.

And at last night’s “Compassion Forum,” hosted by CNN, Obama accused his critics of “misconstruing . . . [his] words” effectively turning the tables on those who take issue with his comments. In Obama’s construal, he is the offended party, and any criticism directed at him is a mere “distraction” from the real issues of the campaign. This method of damage control, as that displayed in the Reverend Wright controversy, implies that simply by questioning the candidate, one is out of line, unfashionable, and uncouth.

I suspect these comments will be quite damaging to Obama because they reinforce (in spite of his efforts to equivocate during this campaign) his conventional liberalism. In this case, though, it’s not simply a matter of him being liberal on economic or domestic issues; it demonstrates that he is a cultural liberal, which has been a particularly lethal charge in presidential elections. It is another brush stroke on the canvas of a man who burst onto the national scene less than four years ago and about whom we know very little. But with every passing week, it seems, we are learning more about the Man of Hope.

On a deeper level, what we saw in Obama’s comments is a glimpse into a particular worldview, one that animates his political philosophy (contemporary liberalism). Senator Obama seems to view ordinary Americans as bitter, often broken, small-minded objects of pity rather than anger, ostensibly in need of instruction from — you guessed it — Barack Obama. The words of Michelle Obama are worth recalling in this context. She has spoken about her husband pushing us out of our “comfort zones,” saying “Barack knows at some level there is a hole in our souls” and “Barack is the only person in this race who understands that before we can work on the problems as a nation, we have to fix our souls. Our souls are broken in this nation.”

This is the Politics of Meaning on steroids. If one views Americans as fundamentally needy children rather than competent citizens, one embraces the precepts of the nanny state — the state that (in Margaret Thatcher’s memorable phrase) takes too much from you in order to do too much for you. This provides an enormous opening for Senator McCain, who can frame this election as pitting a candidate who believes in self-government, against a candidate who believes in the nanny state.

Increasingly, Barack Obama appears to be the Candidate of Illusion. He presents himself as post-racial — which is harder to accept than it once was, given his intimate, longtime relationship with a pastor and church that harbor deep and obvious racial anger toward whites. Obama presents himself as post-partisan — even though in his time in the Senate he has done nothing to bridge the partisan divide, which explains why he has been endorsed by the rabidly partisan MoveOn.org. Obama presents himself as post-ideological — even though he was named the Senate’s most liberal member in 2007 by the respected National Journal. Obama is a public critic of free trade — yet his chief economic adviser is quoted by a Canadian official as saying that Obama’s position on NAFTA is politically motivated and insincere. Obama speaks about the importance of religious faith in his life and the life of the nation — yet when speaking to a group of rich liberals, he implicitly denigrates people of faith, pairing them with people who have “antipathy to people who aren’t like them” and who harbor “anti-immigrant sentiment[s].” He paints religious believers as folks clinging to crutches to better deal with their desperate lives — only to insist last night that his words were actually a tribute to people of religious faith. So sayeth Barack Obama, “healer of broken souls.”

Early on in this campaign I was impressed with Barack Obama as a thoughtful, inspiring, and admirable (if far too liberal) political figure. As the months have worn on, it’s become increasingly apparent that the candidate is projecting mere shadows on the wall. Our Republic deserves better.

— Peter Wehner, former deputy assistant to the president, is a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center.

Well said!!

I totally agree.

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Thanks for the scroll troll from the former Bush staffer who now works for Bill Bennett.

Stunning to know that Republicans don't like Obama.

I would not that all of Clinton's demagoguery on Florida has brought her to a tie with McCain. And that's before Joe Lieberman, the man she and her husband put back in the Senate, starts touring old folks' homes to tell people John McCain is the better president for Israel.

thanx for pointing that out.
off the topic:over at the huff post, Rep. Geoff Davis called Obama "THAT BOY" and said he couldn't trust him with THE button. is it true that it could be a racism issue?

No surprise there. It is rare indeed to find a set of right-wing talking points that you are not eager to endorse.

RaeKKK is an A.N.T.

ANT(Aryan Nation Troll) Here is who this ANT is applauding:

Peter H. "Pete" Wehner served until March 2007 as Deputy Assistant to the President and Director of Strategic Initiatives,[1] running "the White House Office of Strategic Initiatives (or the Office of Strategery, as it is known inside the building after a 'Saturday Night Live' skit spoofing the president's mangling of the English language)."[2]

"Bush speechwriter Peter Wehner worked for William Kristol when he was chief of staff to then-Education Secretary William J. Bennett."

Does that mean that Thomas Frank, author of WHAT'S THE MATTER WITH KANSAS is arrogant too?

Unless the question asked in those polls is specifically related to the revote question, I don't see how you can clearly draw conclusions about how the revote issue has effected the voters. I also think the revote issue can't be limited to just those two states. Obama is being perceived nation-wide as the one who either wants no revotes, or the one who wants the original vote recalculated as a 50/50 tie. Hillary is perceived (correctly) as the one who won both those states, and the one who is being disadvantaged by not counting them. Obama's desire to keep Michigan and Florida out is just a typical political game which further undermines Obama's claim to be a different kind of politician.

Great point.

Josh should hire you to write here.

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You're right that this has been misreported. In both cases, the re-votes the Clinton camp proposed were carefully written to favor her, and she wouldn't allow for any other scenarios. She couldn't have things her way, so she didn't want to play. More Calvinball. In MI, for instance, she wanted to exclude all newly registered Democrats.

That's some great party building and long-term thinking there, isn't it?

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She won Michigan?

You are insane. She, Gravel and Kucinich (who unsuccessfully TRIED to get his name off the ballot) were the only ones on the ballot. NOBODY even seriously entertains the notion thinks she won Michigan except for the deluded.

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Is it possible to ban trolls at TPMCafe? The parent commenter is developing a consistent record.

For the onlookers, it's well known that Obama supported a revote where he would be on the *ballot* and the DNC would count it, while Clinton blocked a revote, and was demanding that the results of the original Soviet-style election be counted. Clinton, after changing her tune once it was too late, then demanded impossible conditions for revotes and tried to blame Obama for it.

Of course, the Michigan Democratic Party leadership was even more to blame for the fiasco.

This is a provocative thesis for which I have no evidence save the anecdotal, but I will go so far as to postulate that Clinton's pushing of the issue has actually hurt her in Michigan. More than a few Michiganders on the Democratic side perceived their primary vote to have been badly flawed and thus feel that it would be a disservice to their own interests to have its results taken at face value. By working this issue so aggressively, Sen Clinton has made herself an easy target for those who were irked at Gov Granholm (a rather prominent Clinton backer) for getting the state into this mess in the first place.

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This may be anecdotal, and I don't know how widely it has been disseminated, but I have read that the governor pushed so hard for the new date at least in part to try to help Clinton secure the nomination, given the early lead that she had in so many other large states. She is even now a big Clinton supporter.

So if this is true, it's possible that voters think that the primary fiasco was attributable, in part, to Clinton supporters and hold Clinton vicariously responsible for trying to capitalize on it so blatantly.

Anything about intention tends to read more like a conspiracy theory than anything else, unless the governor signed a letter stating nothing less than, "I, _______, do indeed believe that in order to make sure that Senator Clinton becomes the Democratic nominee, we must push our primary up into January."

Without the internals it's hard to say that the lack of a re-vote is what hurts Obama in Florida. Could it be because there are more people who don't like his skin color there? Or they don't like his health care plan? Or old people like to vote for old people? Or the fact that he hasn't campaigned there?

Me no likey giving up on FL this early. Also, I have poll fatigue.

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Also, while this is a Drudge 'scoop', it is telling. Is anyone else picking this up?

Guess who McCain wants to run against? Hillary!

http://www.drudgereport.com/flash1jm.htm

Would it hurt TPM to mention somewhere that it was NOT Obama's decision to not hold a revote in Florida, but the Democratic Party of Florida's decision?

Thank you.

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I think Eric's operating under the assumption that Obama is going to be the nominee (because there's no mention of Hillary's potential defeat in Michigan), and he's the Democrat. If there is any backlash against the DNC's decision, it will come against the Democratic candidate.

Obama will lose Florida because the average Florida voter...well, they have a lot in common with 72 year old McCain.

I'm from Florida. The fact that there is no revote has nothing to do with Obama's relative lack of support down there. I do not believe Florida is in play this year. Charlie Crist pretty much won McCain the election, and Crist has close to 70% approval. FL is going red this year...

Yes, that may be where Florida is at now. Where will it be in November when A Great Economic Depression has engulfed the land, and Florida homes are in massive defaults, and the states property taxes are lost, and the schools, health care and municipal services have to be cut way back, and crime soars, and the war is still raging, and the projected national deficit for 2009 will be one trillion, and the collapsed dollar has driven all food, energy , and all import prices through the roof:

Where will the voters be then. Will McCain look good to them then. Are they really craving for the New Herbert Hoover. Do they crave Grapes of Wrath that much. Gee perhaps they may actually love the bitter life. We shall see.

The only way to settle this is to give Florida back to Cuba, and to give Texas back to Mexico.

If McCain wins, I move to give my home state of MO back to France. I dare say that I would rather have Pres Sarkozy than Pres McCain, and besides, this would make me slightly wealthier when my salary was suddenly paid in euros instead of dollars.

Don't say Bush never did anything for you.

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Does Mexico have to take the Bush's? Cuba can have Jeb if that makes negotiations go smoother. I'm in.

Does anyone else get the sense that Texas - with Obama - is more in play than it's been since, I don't know, LBJ? Put Richardson on the ticket and who knows.

I think Obama's lack of support compared to Hillary has to do with the fact he never campaigned there. FL will probably go for McCain whoever is the nominee but the numbers showing Obama much further down probably has to do with her being a better known entity.
And to those who wanna say "Campaign has been going on for months... people know Obama" I will point out to you the polls in PA. Whatever happens in Bittergate the model was working. As soon as he started to campaign there, things started to tighten

Except he never campaigned in Michigan either.

Otto, I typically read your posts and think, "well, he has a right to think that..." and go on. Of course you have a right to think this:

"Hillary is perceived (correctly) as the one who won both those states..."

But it is an insult to your own intelligence to think that she "won" these states fairly. Yes, I would be saying the same thing about Obama had he gone against his own pledge and competed in those states. It would be like telling your buddy that you can't show up to play a game of Horse because you disagree with the rules, and then going outside and sinking 5 layups and calling yourself the winner. Or something like that...

He also never campaigned in Florida and that isn't a part of the country or a demographic that would naturally go to Obama, so it isn't necessarily related to the revote nonsense.

All I got to say, as a Michigander, is yup. That's pretty much how it's been. Don't like Clinton, willing to give Obama a chance.

After all, 40% of the voters were willing to come out on a cold January day and vote for "Uncommitted" instead of for Clinton. There probably would've been more if it weren't for those goofs who tried to give Paul a bit more time in the Republican race.

hey, you calling me a goof?

Uh, affectionately calling you a goof, I guess.

If you've still got the Paul sign in your yard like some neighbors of mine, I'd call you a nutjob.

no, but the next door neighbor planted a chestnut tree. harvesting will be a nut-job.

It is also "possible but not conclusive" that Greg is just talking out of his ass here.

This poll provides *no* evidence that the rogue primary/re-vote issue had any effect one way or another on the respondent's preferences.

But - if you want to speculate - it is also "possible but not conclusive" that Obama's having never campaigned in the state (unlike the other candidates, and I'm counting previous election cycles here) is affecting the poll results.

Just sayin'.

Um, sorry about that Greg - it's Eric I should have been referring to above. Whether Greg is or is not talking out of his ass is not at issue on this thread.

By November:

The economy will have sunken into A Great Depression.
McCain has the same policies as Herbert Hoover.

If people are not bitter now, they will be after McCain has fed them a steady diet of his Grapes of Wrath.

A lot of these "revote battles" are ginned up by MI and FL politicians who made the wrong guesses about how to assert their states' influence in the primary; they gambled that moving up illegally would work, and it didn't, and now they are embarrased and looking for other ways to be "champions of the people."

But one thing I find very strange in the endless national wrangling/interpreting now is the idea that HRC would strongly win revotes in BOTH states. She has, all along, done much better in FL for the usual demographic reasons, and run about even or even behind Obama in MI. These general election "horce race" polls suggest this pattern about the differences in underlying support for the two Democrats.

In the end, Dems nationally should just seat FL with some advantage to HRC, and seat MI with a 50/50 split and be done with it. These moves will not fundamentally change the overall outcome of the nomination battle. This is what will eventually happen, I suppose.

and after the real fake sinbad, the real fake theda skocpol? I think at this point we all need a real fake josh marshall too...

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Thanks for the scroll troll from the former Bush staffer who now works for Bill Bennett.

Stunning to know that Republicans don't like Obama.

Absolutely.

I don't want a candidate the Republicans like and they sure seem to like Hillary Clinton at the moment.

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The thought of anyone around Bill "I'm the Morals' Czar, not a hypocrite because I'm obese and a gambling addict" Bennett accusing Obama of being an elitist is beyond funny.

Bittergate is still alive in the corporate media.

Still no apology so it will stay in the media.

Snobama should go ahead drop out so we can focus on crushing mcwar.

It is getting embarrassing for him and a career killer.

Obama up 10 in Gallup today over Clinton in WSJ, up two on McCain. WSJ reports that Quinnipiac sees no real poll movement over this nontroversy.

Your point wins the Most Out of Touch With Reality Award, which is fought over with great vigor at this site.

Yes, he should _drop out now_. Are you an alias of some low level staffer at the RNC?

NBC nightly news just showed Hillary getting booed by the crowd when she harped on this again. In the Republican tradition, the Clinton people said the booers were all union troublemakers.

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It is getting embarrassing for him and a career killer.

If this was true, you would be in a position where you would be called upon to be ashamed of yourself because this is nothing more than a sound bite smear and if that's how you want your candidate to win - that makes you a Republican, IMO.

Obama problem in FL is much more about age demographics.

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Obama problem in FL is much more about age demographics.

The entire state of Florida reminds me of Waco, Texas. There are 14 state courts of appeal in Texas and one of them is in Waco. When I worked for the Dallas Court of Appeals, we always got every court's opinions every week and read them because some consistency is expected among the courts. Waco never ever ever did what everyone else was doing. They really are Wacko there because you just never know with them.

And that's what Florida reminds me of.

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Tena-- your gravatar? Clara Bow?

I want some one who is among the best and the brightest to lead the nation. In other words; someone with Elite qualifications. Hillary says that she does not meet those requirements, so you should only hire her if you crave more of the same:

"Some one you would like to have a beer with"

Well you got him folks, for the past seven years. How has that worked out for you.

Hillary, Shot and a Beer, Clinton is running for Bush's third term.

Hillary thinks that the American Voters are so stupid that they will keep falling for the same Bullshit over and over.

Will you? Hillary believes that you will.

Are you really craving for George W. Bush in a Kevlar, sniper defying, Pantsuit!!!!

Obama's about 20 years too young for Florida voters.

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Tena-- your gravatar? Clara Bow?

Louise Brooks. One of my minor heroines - she was gorgeous, totally fearless, very very intelligent and did just what she wanted to.

:)

Doesn't Florida have an anti-gay marriage measure on the ballot this year? I dont' think Florida has ever been in the cards for the Dems this year.

The Clintons have no shot unless they have a series of polls in other states that show her to have a SIGNIFICANT advantage. I don't think those polls will be there at the end of the day. On the contrary, I think the polls will all be in Obama's favor. All this hand-wringing will end in June - if not sooner.

Do you think a point will come where people will just toss off some kind of compromise where the Florida vote goes through as is (just to make Floridians happy) but the Michigan one doesn't?

Nope I don't think Obama will give Hillary the Florida delegates because it would make him look weak. Besides it is very probable that this election is going to the convention ugh! Fast forward me four years please after Hillary has lost the election against McCain because the African-American voters and a lot of others stay home. There's no way the party leaders deserve their loyalty after this.

Floridians really don't care that much about the delegate thing. Clinton people claim we are bitter about it, but we really aren't. It's McCain country: lots of Southern rednecks, Cuban-Americans, Lieberman Dems, and old people. Make it a 49-state strategy.

Word to the wise -- avoid Florida. Governor Crist is holding down the plantation and I will advise the Obama campaign not to spend a cent in that state.

Wow. Louise Brooks. Very, very sexy.

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