Multiple other polls have him maintaining a 6 to 8 pts nationally (newsweek, rasmussen, etc). I tend to think Gallup's methop of polling isn't as reliable.

Although I do suspect IN is going to be a nailbiter!

A tie in Indiana, combined with a loss in NC, is not good enough for the senator from New York. The media's doing everything they can to help the Hillary comeback narrative off the ground but the voters don't seem to care.

It doesn't matter, except to give the brain-dead talking heads something to chatter about for a few days, which of them wins Indiana by 2 points. Back in the land of reality, all that matters is that Hillary can't make any significant delegate pickup there, while on the same day she'll lose a substantial amount of ground in NC.

Greg - one of these days can you provide context to these national polls and explain that with 7 states left to vote it doesn't really matter.

National polling existing before Iowa that had Hillary up 20 points, and yet Obama won Iowa. A primary is a state-by-state contest.

Oh, and Rasmussen's tracking has Obama up 49-41 today.

And Rasmussen, nationally - Obama 49, Clinton 41.

I suggest TPM should lead the media and become a model for not headlining only one poll. This approach has been used by the media, too often using their own polls and ignoring the 47 other polls that have been done in the interim. Or one is picked because it fits with some storyline. Thus CNN - Gallup is headlined, Newsweek is metioned in text (where Obama leads), and others such as Rasmussen are not shown.

Any one poll by itself has weaknesses when used as a predictor or even as a reliable snapshot. Gallup and Rasmussen have weaknesses though I used the two to show the problem with headlining one poll. What should be headlined is clear trends or reliable polls of polls. This now hurts Obama but earlier it hurt Clinton, depending on how the media plays it at moment.

Okay, the choice is clear.

We must unite with Clinton like the gop did with mcwar.

If we do not, nothing will change and it will be your fault.

So, if you really want change and really want to win this time and not lose three in a row,

Hillary Clinton is the obvious choice.

What's incredible, still, to me, is the extent to which the Clinton campaign has structured the narrative and the attention of the media. It's all about Indiana now. North Carolina? Almost an afterthought.

Why are the states that Clinton is expected to win the most important?

The upside is that will bite her in the ass bigtime if she does manage to lose Indiana.

Sure, sure, if you average all the Indiana polls together, it is a dead heat. Look at the date-stamps on those polls, however. What do the new polls say and what do the old polls say? Clinton wins the obsolete polls, while Obama leads the current ones. Look at the trendlines. Look at the RCP average for IN. Obama is going to win IN. I am not buying the line that says that Clinton has to win IN in order to keep going, but if one actually believes that then it is hard to see much hope for Clinton's chances in the near term.

"In the latest sign that the Dem primary is basically deadlocked -- in some polls, if not in the pledged del or popular vote count --"

Your bias is dissapointing.

"If not"??? You have doubts about the pledged delegates lead? You have doubts about a lead of 160 pledged delegates?

"If not"?? You have doubts about the popular vote lead? Did you really take for granted Clinton's BS about the popular vote? For Pete's sake, we're talking about 600,000 votes.

You, of all places TPM, should not be pushing this fabricated horse race narrative.

This post is why TPM should resist breathless coverage of polls. It starts off by looking good for Hillary, but by the "late update" it is clear that Barack is winning....But none of this captures the REALITY that Barack is ahead in the only metric that counts, pledged delegates, and Hillary cannot catch him.

The one thing I see going for Obama right now is that the media isn't talking about Indiana as another chance for him to knock Hillary out of the race. It seems that whenever that happens, things go south for him. I'm glad to see his campaign is taking Indiana super seriously. Despite the math, this thing is closer than it looks. It's not about winning the nomination right now, but the general. If Clinton wins in Indiana, nothing short of a floor fight will stop her. If she loses, there's a chance this thing may wind down in June. This may be alarmist, but Indiana feels make or break for the presidency at the moment. Time to light a fire under the Obamacats.

In the latest sign that the Dem primary is basically OVER -- in MOST polls, AND ALSO in the pledged del or popular vote count -- the latest RASMUSSEN AND GALLUP tracking poll finds that Hillary and Obama have been MANY POINTS APART nationally for A LONG TIME now.

Meanwhile, ANY "poll of polls", WHENEVER released, finds the two 15 POINTS APART in NORTH CAROLINA.

Let me remind everyone that Clinton needs at least 70% of the votes in the remaining states to have a shot at catching up.

Being 15% down in the state which has about a third of the remaining delegates very clearly says that this race is over.

Thank you for including all the polls, Greg.

Considering that Obama has had twice as much money (just a wild guess), an adoring MSM, and the endorsements of most of the old Democrat establishment, like that fat bulb-nosed Teddy Kennedy, and yet STILL has not separated from Hillary at this point, is very telling indeed. And also consider that Obama has to be thanking his lucky stars every day that Florida and Michigan won't count this year, not to mention that his Moveon storm-troopers were able to take over caucuses (caucii?) like Nazis taking over beer halls.

The Survey USA Poll was done April 25-27th. It will be released to the general public later today on their website.

New SUSA Indiana Primary Poll done April 25-27
Hillary Clinton 52 %
Barack Obama 43 %
Others 3 %
Undecided 2 %

No Clear Trend in Indiana -- Clinton Ends April Just As She Started: In a Democratic Primary in Indiana today, 04/28/08, 8 days until votes are counted, Hillary Clinton finishes ahead of Barack Obama, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WHAS-TV in Louisville and WCPO-TV in Cincinnati. The results are identical to a SurveyUSA TV poll released 4 weeks ago, on 04/01/08. Clinton led then 52% to 43%, leads now 52% to 43%. Other polls show the contest closer; some polls show Obama ahead. SurveyUSA tracking graphs show movement toward Clinton in the middle of April but offsetting movement to Obama at the end of April. This back-and-forth can be seen clearly on the interactive tracking graphs for males, for Democrats, for pro-choice voters, and for residents of greater Indianapolis. Clinton's advantage is steady among women, steady among voters age 50+, and steady in Southern Indiana, which borders Kentucky. Obama is gaining ground among voters under 50, where he leads for the first time; among liberals, where he leads for the first time; in Northern Indiana, where he is tied for the first time; and in Central Indiana, where he has cut Clinton's lead in half. Clinton, by contrast, is making steady inroads among Independent voters.

This is stupid. Whay would you trumpet a headline for a day-old Gallup poll when more up to date tracking info was already available from Rasmussen (that showed a very different picture)? Why not just wait for Gallup to release today's tracker at 2 PM? Who knows, maybe Hillary will be winning that one and you can put it in 96-pt. type. Everyone keeps saying to go easy on Greg. Why? This post is either incompetent or demonstrates blatantly pro-Hillary bias.

Yesterday Howard Dean called the race a tie.

ABC News calculates the popular vote as follows:

Counting Michigan and Florida:
Hillary 15,016,012
Obama 14,904,466

Not counting Michigan and Florida:
Obama 14,335,425
Hillary 13,830,653

There is WAY to much attention given to "winning" individual states. HRC "won" Nevada but wound up with one FEWER delegate. With the way delegates are allocated, the difference between a narrow win and a narrow loss is nothing more than bragging rights. But of course, that's all the MSM focuses on.

Why does Josh allow Greg Sargent a platform on which to spread his pro-Hillary, anti-Obama interpretation of the news?

As Josh has pointed out any ties, minor variations in Gallup's poll mean nothing, they ebb and flow over the course of the campaign. Josh has even mocked news reports that pounce on these headlines.

Seriously, is Greg on Hillary's payroll, or angling for a job with a Clinton Administration?

Come on.

No one has done more for the people of America and Indiana than Barack Obama.

Sticky "m" on my keyboard:
"any ties" --> many times

Sorry for the typos. :-)

That is yesterday's poll. The polls are not deadlocked. HRC did not break the line in the new Gallup poll.

And then, of course, today's Gallup poll came out (right on time) and did not in fact show the race deadlocked but Obama moving back to a slight lead.