Caveat: Syn: One key finding.

A day without an Obama good news caveat, is like a day with Hillary's Sargent at Arms taking the day off.

Does the latest AP/Yahoo poll released today show Clinton ahead of Obama 49/39? Did I misread this when reading the actual poll results? All of the stories are dwelling on Obama being more electable than Clinton and McCain pulling even with both.

It might be an outlier, but it's awfully nice to see.

This is the trouble with Gallup: they ask the same people over and over again, day after day. I'd get tired of giving the same answer all the time, too. Or I'd get into a troll mood and give them one answer for a week and another answer the next week.

Newsweek, on the other hand, picked a fresh batch of registered Dems. These people haven't been asleep for the past month. Nor are they delusional. Nor are they trolls. They're right with it. On the bleading edge.

So, there you have it. I don't know why they're even going to bother next week in PA.

I'll go with Moose - I'll take it because I think this is closer to reality than anything I've seen yet

though I don't trust polls worth a damn -

THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR HILLARY!!!

Is there money in this polling business? If there is, it could be a career changer for me. It's like being a weatherman, you get it wrong and no big whoop. These polls are all over the place and it proves the polling is completely ridiculous. But, I bet it pays the bills, yo.

Even as the graph lines zig and zag, Obama stays in the lead over Clinton.

We must remember that Hillary started out as the "inevitable" predicted winner in EVERY state and her numbers have ALWAYS declined everywhere after she began her campaign in that state - New Hampshire, California and Ohio included. Can anyone name one successful politician who has an inverse relationship between their campaign effectiveness and their electoral support? The fact is that she has a large and solid "negative" base and her campaigning efforts seem to effectively awaken and motivate her detractors.

With this burden I cannot see how any clear thinking, self-interested super-delegate would choose to vote for Clinton. It's just not in their own electoral interests.

When I look at the polls now, I feel I'm looking at Scarecrow in the "Wizard of Oz," pointing opposite ways to the Emerald City.

Tomorrow Obama will be making a whistlestop tour of PA from Philly to Harrisburg. It's very conservative, Amish country. I've had experiences in the past calling women Republican voters who, when asked for whom they'll be voting for, answered, "I'll have to ask my husband." The Republicans have a 2-1 edge in voter registration here. If Jesus ran as a Democrat here, he'd lose.

So it will be interesting to see the turnout at the anything goes whistlestop tomorrow evening at the Amtrak station in Lancaster. To me, that will mean more than all the Scarecrow polls and nattering nabobs of negativism on cable tv...

Here's a good one! For Hillary!

The new poll puts Obama ahead among women as well as men, and voters aged 60 and older as well as younger voters. One of the more devastating results for Clinton was that a majority of all registered voters now see her as dishonest and untrustworthy. According to the poll, just four in 10 (41 percent) registered voters view the New York senator as honest and trustworthy, while 51 percent think the opposite. This compares with solid majorities of voters who see Obama and McCain as honest and trustworthy (both polled 61 percent).

There that word again! DISHONEST

More she talks the higher the number goes....Would she get more support by dropping out?

Hillary will not stop until there has been a full revote in Florida and Mich or until she is given the votes from the existing contests and Obama is given the votes from the two contests as well.

After that(ha ha), if she is still behind in the popular and/or delegate counts, she will contrive other reasons to stay in.

Top Clinton supporters in my state, mostly leading female public officials and ex officials (and mostly very good people), had a somewhat tense meeting with Teddy Kennedy, John Kerry and Deval Patrick on Tuesday or Wed., essentially demanding that they pressure Obama and Dean for a resolution to Mich. and Fla.

Its too bad the debate was so f*cked and Obama was not in good form, as it looks like he was coming closer to winning in Penn. Then this would end.

eh, I really hate national polls. He'll go down again after losing PA. Then up a bit after winning NC and (hopefully) IN.

DEATHWATCH

As I've said here before, if Obama were to emerge as the clear winner of both the pledged del count and popular vote, these numbers might shift -- perhaps dramatically -- in his direction.

And it doesn't look like it's going to take much..many superdelegates that is!!

Time:

WASHINGTON - Time is running out on Hillary Rodham Clinton, the long-ago front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination who now trails Barack Obama in delegates, states won and popular votes.

Compounding Clinton's woes, Obama appears on track to finish the primary campaign fewer than 100 delegates shy of the 2,025 needed to win

Obama needs to "emerge" as the winner of the pledged delegate count and popular vote? He currently leads both, by a significant margin. The consensus of all available polling at this point shows him widening, not narrowing, with both leads. You know that too. Why was it implied (using the word "emerge") that he has not reached a lead yet in both categories?

Nineteen points? As an Obama fan, I'd love to believe it. But then what to make of the near-simultaneous Gallup tracking poll that has Clinton just three points behind nationally?
First thing to realize: polls are really useful only in identifying long-term trends. An instant reaction to a bad debate performance says nothing about how a person will vote in November.
And November's Obama-McCain matchup is the one popularity contest that will count for anything.
That's the only long term anyone should be concerned about. Let's be clear: no temporary blip in support for Clinton is going to win her the Democratic nomination.
Second thing to realize is that even the best polls have unavoidable margins of error. For a sample of 1,200 Democrats, it's about 3 per cent. For a sample of 600 (like Newsweek's), it's roughly plus-or-minus four.
And crucially, even that level of accuracy occurs only 19 times in 20. On average, every twentieth poll will be wrong by more than that.
Before this campaign season is over, hundreds of polls will be published. Most will likely show one candidate winning or losing by a percentage that's within the margin of error.
Look for long-term trends in the results if you wish, but don't harbor any illusions that a particular poll that bolsters your candidate will be the one that is spot-on accurate. I predict, with 95-per-cent certainty, that it won't be.

What's this moveon.org-gate Dan Abrams just mentioned? Hillary caught on tape saying something? I missed what she said.

Newsweek is about as accurate as Zogby. The only thing accurate about them is that they are both consistently wrong.

Newsweek does not report the news - I cancelled my subscription when the rest of the world got the Afghanistan war on the cover (and our botching of it) and the US edition got Annie Leibovitz on our cover - If they don't think we can take the real news, then why call yourself Newsweek?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newsweek

Take a look at today's Daly Gallup Poll. Nationally Obama had an 11 point lead just four days ago. Now, after wilting under tough questioning in the debate, and days of complaining about how negative the debate was, Obama has dropped 12 points to trail Clinton. What was all that we were hearing about the debate having no effect on Obama? Could it be that people are concluding that the tough questioning he handled so poorly is only a taste of what the GOP will throw at him?

April 19, 2008
Gallup Daily: Clinton 46%, Obama 45%
General election races remain tight

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking shows that Hillary Clinton now receives 46% of the support of Democrats nationally, compared to 45% for Barack Obama, marking the first time Obama has not led in Gallup's daily tracking since March 18-20.

These results are based on interviewing conducted April 16-18, including two days of interviewing after the contentious Wednesday night debate in Philadelphia and the media focus that followed. Support for Hillary Clinton has been significantly higher in both of these post-debate nights of interviewing than in recent weeks. The two Democratic candidates are now engaged in intensive campaigning leading up to Tuesday's Pennsylvania primary and are under a continual and hot media spotlight, increasing the chances for change in the views of Democrats in the days ahead.