I'll repeat what I just said on the last poll:

And I'm sooooo sick of polls and trying to identify trends and reactions to this hyped story or that hyped story. BAHH!!

F the polls, they all read the same thing:

"Hillary isn't going to win PA and every other remaining state by 20+ points so this thing is over!"

The forensic evidence so far is on PPP's side. Their South Carolina forecast is especially impressive, with every other pollster miles off target. If precedent is to go by, if PPP looks like an outlier, it might be everybody else that's off. Tomorrow will be the big test. If Obama wins, my professional regard for PPP will be galvanized.

Maybe PPP will prove to be the South Carolina PPP and the Iowes DMRegister poll all over again.

If we see a spike in turnout in Philly, Obama can win. That's how Rendell won.

I am ignoring all polls on Pennsylvania. They're all over the place, and my poor heart can't take the roller coaster ride.

Taking the average at pollster.com, we've had a consistent difference of 6%, so that's my optimistic prediction:
http://www.pollster.com/08-PA-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

For the record, flyonthewall, who knows polls better than any of the rest of us losers, expects more of the undecideds to break Clinton, so he/she projects a bigger loss for Obama.

May I say, I don't usually do much calling, but I called Lancaster, PA on Saturday afternoon before the whistlestop came through.

All but one of the people I reached was already srongly for Obama and getting out the vote. And a lot had re-registered to vote for him, not cynically, but honestly, and a couple had never voted before, including one who was 80 years old; another reported that her 85-year-old life-long Republican parents had re-registered to vote for him; another when I repeated this story said she also had changed her registration; another was working hard on her undecided husband but Barack clearly had her support (good talk even though her husband had handed me off to her despite her protest to him, "but I'm cooking!" (4:00))

One ostensible undecided turned out not to be undecided about who he preferred after I set the script aside and just spoke from my soul and largely about issues that white people supposedly don't think black people care about (because we both id'd race probably accurately immediately by voice pattern, and he had his guard up, and I heard it) - and it turned out it he was already for Obama, but he, too, had never voted before (mid-30s? maybe my age (44)?). But he was already gearing up to go to the whistle stop, he knew what time the scheduled stop was, he knew how many had turned out in Philly on Fri, he was on board. He's just always outvoted in PA and in his area of PA in particular and so normally doesn't see much point in voting.

And the one true undecided simply hadn't had time to pay attention - she has a very busy life - downplayed the difficulties of it - and had only started to notice the campaign - (with a slightly aggrieved tone at first: "they've been campaigning for a week and a half!"). But she wanted to listen, she wanted to believe (and she preferred talking about this to dealing with her ?daughter's loud argument with somebody or other in the background, which periodically required both of us to pause until we could hear one another again). We, too, had a good, thoroughly unscripted conversation. I could tell I needed to introduce her to Barack so I went with biography; it worked for me and I was pretty sure it would work for her. I urged her to seek the counsel of her friends and neighbors, because by then I knew who her friends and neighbors were probably going for him.

And that whistle stop drew thousands (3k low estimate, high estimate was 7-10k!).

That congressional district (16) is not getting more than a 2-2 delegate split, but Lancaster proper? I predict a big win for Obama, and a lot of new votes towards the statewide total. And the Republicans may even need to watch out in that district in the future.

I am back from being Obamatized (worn out - a friend's locution) to being energized - and PA is in play. A win is unlikely, but close is possible. If you have time to make calls today, do!

I'm an Obama supporter.

Nonetheless, the black vote is overrepresented in this poll. PA's black population is 10.4% and there is an 18% representation in this poll.

And this poll includes the leaners, the other polls did not. So, the actual numbers, if you want a real 1:1 correspondence with the last polls, is:

Obama: 47
Clinton: 43

I'm still calling it for Hillary by 8-12 points.

But, that said, PPP has a damn good record and that is one seriously big-ass sample PPP used. 2% is the smallest margin of error I ever recall seeing in a statewide poll. I don't recall seeing any SUSA poll with an n > 700.

With a sample that big, you've also got to give the demographic and regional breakouts in the cross-tabs a lot of respect.

Another straw in the wind. That that dip in Gallup rolling national average (which was never replicated by Rasmussen, fwiw) just boomeranged back big time. It makes one wonder whether Hillary has done something that turned a lot of lukewarm supporters off or, alternately, that her math problems finally hit home with a few percent some more. (CBS News apparently did a story on the math last night, btw.) It's also possible, I suppose, that Obama is getting the same kind of anti-MSM rebound that Hillary got in New Hampshire.

And, one last straw: Zogby has cast his chicken bones into the charmed circle drawn on the floor and says he sees the undecideds breaking for Hillary. Zogby is like the Colonel Klink of pollsters when it comes to correctly calling these "late breaking trends:" whatever wire in the bomb he says to cut, clip the other one.

But I'm still going with Hillary by 8 - 12. That's my call and I'm sticking to it. I refuse to get my hopes up.

I'm thinking of hoarding republican'ts just so that they can't bugger any more pages or start anymore wars. If you really think we need one. I will have them stacked in the root cellar.