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Poll: Hillary's Lead In Pennsylvania Drops To 11
New numbers from the Morning Call find Hillary leading Obama in Pennsylvania by 11 points, 49%-38%.
That lead is down three points from mid-February. Since then, Obama barnstormed the state by bus and unleashed a Pennsylvania ad blitz, which the Call estimates is costing the Obama campaign $325,000 per day, as compared to Hillary's $120,000 per day.
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You realize if she wins by 10%, she only picks up an additional ten delegates? That wouldn't be enough to overcome Obama's lead of 169 delegates.
April 4, 2008 11:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Which exactly shows you how stupid the delegate count is, not to mention the caucuses ...... The system is rigged to not hurt anyones feelings.... there are no loosers here only winners... except the Democrats in general. Too bad November is winner take all and the Dems have been playing dumb.
April 4, 2008 1:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think you might find that a fair number of people feel that the exact opposite is true. The winner takes all of the GE is the stupid part, and the proportional method (caucusing aside) of the Dem Primary would be more ideal.
My $0.02
April 4, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
i would agree with you if the delegates were allocated as a proportion of the popular vote instead of these crazy district allocations and other unfathomable (and random) calculations and methods... democracy should be more straight forward, no?
April 4, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Parties were not originally intended to be "Democratic" whatever that may mean... delegates are awarded based on heavily a given district voted Democratic, usually, in the last 2 elections... parties are extra governmental organizations that put up candidates... one could have a hundred theoretically. So there is a fundamental misunderstanding about what parties historically are all about... also in the "olden" days (my lifetime... you had all sorts of floor fights... it is just that the times and expectations have changed.
April 4, 2008 6:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary's express lane to Pennsylvania Ave just keeps getting narrower.
April 4, 2008 11:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well well - I wonder if Adam Nagourney will retract his piece in the NYT that says "Obama has peaked."
See, this is why I hate these journalists - they all have their own agendas. We've watched Nagourney lie himself through the last 8 years and here he is, gearing up to lie some more.
April 4, 2008 11:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Within ten points is victory for Obama. It shows he can compete anywhere, even a state incredibly stacked against him. He's almost there.
April 4, 2008 11:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
So, Obama is outspending Clinton 3-to-1 and still trails and will still lose, very likely by double-digits. Isn't there a bigger message here? Even with money, Obama can't close the deal and cannot win. This will be no different elsewhere and especially no different in the general election. Obama cannot win, regardless of the fervor of his cult following or the money he and they throw at it. And consider too, that his failure is only against Clinton now. What happens if he faces McCain and the Republican 527s?
April 4, 2008 11:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Matthew,
Again. Would you vote for Obama if he were the Democratic nominee?
April 4, 2008 11:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
No. I've answered this multiple times. Is there a point to you asking this again and again?
Matthew
http://www.TheProblemWithObama.com
April 4, 2008 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Because I never see the answer. Now that I have, I can officially and finally disregard you, since it is quite obvious that you are no Democrat. Cheers.
April 4, 2008 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have likely been a Democrat, working on Democratic campaigns and in precincts longer than you have been old enough to vote. You marginalize yourself and your so-called progressive position when you discount anyone not fitting into your 'must vote for candidate and be big D democrat' as a litmus test.
April 4, 2008 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Matthew, give us a break. You're NOT a Democrat. You may THINK you're a Democrat, but a true Democrat would never attack the presumptive nominee like you do. You're as much a Democrat as Joe Lieberman. You're as much a Democrat as Hillary Clinton. But you're NOT a Democrat.
Wake up to what you are, Matthew. The truth will set you free. Be a Republican.
April 4, 2008 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're about as much a Democrat as Mark Penn:
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20070604/berman
April 4, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also, I like your link. The closet racism and whistle-blowing seen in this statement is rich:
"Once again Obama expresses his arrogant and condescending attitude of entitlement in the campaign saying "My attitude is Senator Clinton can run as long as she wants.""
How DARE that black upstart compare himself with a white woman.
Retort: How is that "arrogant and condescending?"
I suggest you watch "To Kill a Mockingbird" again, if you are having trouble understanding my argument. Pay specific attention to the prosecution's case in the trial about 90 minutes in.
April 4, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Where was this comment when the other polls came out with narrower leads earlier this week? Are you willing to stand by this post if BHO losses PA narrowly or even eeks out a win?
April 4, 2008 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Its like they want to lose.
Sad.
April 4, 2008 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
So you're suggesting that McCain and the Republicans are better campaigners than the Clintons???
Cuz if he can't beat McCain, but is beating the shit out of Hillary, then Hillary doesn't stand a chance.
If Hillary can beat McCain, and Obama is kicking Hillary's ass, then it stands that he should also kick McCain's ass.
Hillary fans love to point at her electability, but fail to realize that he's going to hold the traditional Dem states (check the polls, it's true) and gain inroads into some red states.
If she can beat McCain, Obama will destroy McCain.
If she can't beat McCain, at least Obama has a chance.
April 4, 2008 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Man, I must have made this arguement (if Obama is beating HRC so bad, how does she have a better chance against McCain than he does) dozens of times, and it never gets any response. I'm asking Weaver, gotalife, dembillc, etc... can you answer this? How would she do better in the general against McCain when she squandered her huge leads to this "upstart"? Anyone?
April 4, 2008 12:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Because Hillary would do better than Obama in places like OH, FL, & PA. Obama's strength rests on a coalition of blacks, liberals, kids & crossover voters. Hillary's on the more traditional democratic voter, who have shown that about a third of them may vote for McCain if Obama is the nominee. That is why Obama polls worse than Hillary v McCain in OH, FL & PA, one of which the Democratic nominee must capture in the fall. That's the argument.
April 4, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
First off, thanks for posting a non-trollish response.
I partially agree with you on some of these points and disagree on some. I agree Hillary would do better than Obama in some states, especially Florida (though I do think that McCain will still win there). Most polling I've seen has Hillary and Obama doing about the same vs McCain in PA however, and Hillary usually only does a bit better in OH. Anyway, I think this is made up for by Obama's ability to win places like CO, VA, and maybe a couple traditionally Repub southern states with high black populations. He also will probably do better in MN and WI, two states that have been close the last election.
I've also seen those polls showing the HRC supporters that would go for McCain, but I dont buy it. Once the GE season starts and people see the huge differences between Obama and McCain, they'll come around. I for a while considered not voting for Hillary in the GE were she to win (though I would never vote for McCain) but now I see that that would be idiotic.
April 4, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, you can look at it for yourself,but RCP averages for OH have HRC winning by 2.5 & Obama losing by 5. PA is HRC winning by 3.7 and Obama losing by 1.5. Both lose FL. I'll give CO & NM but VA doesn't even look close.
http://www.pollster.com/08-VA-Pres-GE-MvO.php
I am sure that Obama will do well in more than a couple of other southern states, but which ones in particular he has a shot of carrying, beats me.
Whatever Democrat is nominated is going to have to win in PA, OH or FL. HRC can win both. Obama probably won't win OH and he's going to have to fight for a win in PA.
As for fractures in the Democratic base, they are real and significant.
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/750/obama-lead-problems
Which is why HRC matches up better against McCain than Obama in OH, PA & FL and also why Obama shows relatively weak in bastions of blue like MA & NJ. Inside the echo chamber it's hard to imagine, but almost if not half, of the Democratic primary voters have chosen HRC over Obama. Obama has never been able to close the deal with this demographic which is why there is still primary going on. If you don't think that's a problem for him come November, you're nuts.
April 4, 2008 6:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Stop! Stop! You're breaking the 4th Wall!
April 4, 2008 12:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I keep thinking that people who point to hillary's 'electability' really must not get out much. even the new yorkers I know that voted for her for senate don't plan to vote for her against mccain.
April 4, 2008 12:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's a New Yorker who wouldn't vote for her for Senate. I pulled the lever for Jonathan Tasini last time around, and when she comes back to NY with her Senate seat her very last "firewall," I'm sure there will be many more Democratic and Independent challengers out against her, and I'll have even more choices. I spent a fair amount of time during the early part of this campaign feeling a bit sorry for her, but the way she's been carrying on since she went into full diva mode has now made me think she's not right in the head. Really not right. And neither are a lot of her supporters.
April 4, 2008 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't even understand this comment.
Obama cannot win? He IS winning. That's why Hillary is behind....because she lost all those states to Obama. So, maybe you should say that Hillary can't win...because she's losing.
You know, at this point, Hillary is like Huckabee. Sure, she wins a state, once a while. But she has no chance to actually get the nomination.
April 4, 2008 12:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Isn't there a bigger message here? Even with money, Obama can't close the deal and cannot win."
No, sir. The bigger messages are a) that at one point not so long ago Obama was behind in PA by around 20% and b) that the primary isn't tomorrow but in a couple more weeks.
It should be clear even to the most pro-Clinton observer that Obama is indeed closing the deal. November is a long ways away: the best thing in Obama's favor (assuming he's the nominee); the worst thing in Clinton's (assuming she is).
April 4, 2008 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Me Matthew Weaver...me bitter, angry...me make crazy cliché insult about cult.
Magic 8 Ball says: "Try again."
www.matthewweaverissocrazy.com
April 4, 2008 1:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
More on Jeremiah Wright! SHOCKING!
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi-oped0404wrightapr03,0,92000.story
April 4, 2008 11:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nice one Blue Skies... a great piece from the Tribune.
April 4, 2008 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is a really great article!
Thanks for posting.
April 4, 2008 12:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mr. Murtha is right.
She will win by double digits.
April 4, 2008 11:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
But will she win by enough to show she's cutting into Obama's lead?
She needs to win by +20 to make a dent. She can probably get away with claiming 15 as indicative of momentum. Anything under that will by laughed at by most supers sitting the fence. They know the deal in Pennsylvania even if the press allows the Clinton's to publicly move the goalposts again.
Right now, it doesn't look like it's going to be a 20 point blowout, does it?
April 4, 2008 11:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
if you're interested in how Hillary might actually win, then check out this link:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/no_really_hillary_has_a_decent.html
if the link doesn't work, then go to:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles
then look for the article entitled "No Really. Hillary Has a Decent Shot" by Sean Oxendine
i realize that this guy is a republican (and real clear politics is a republican website), but the analysis seems pretty solid...
we all know that republicans are wrong about most stuff... but they seem to know something about elections and election math...
April 4, 2008 12:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know what, kensdad? Buy yourself a magic lantern and hope a genie pops out and grants you three wishes, because that's the ONLY way Hillary is going to win this. The analysis you've cited is so full of idiotic what-ifs and wild speculation as to be almost funny. Except that it's too annoyingly stupid to be funny. Hillary's supporters and the Republicans share one dream: that Hillary is the nominee. But you're both living in a dream world. It's a fantasy. Hillary will NOT be the nominee. Not in a million years.
April 4, 2008 12:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
thank you for your reliable response. i know that i can always count on you for a rabid attack ;-)
but i understand why the article upsets you.
April 4, 2008 12:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Because it's moronic? Is that why?
April 4, 2008 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
it's only moronic (to you) because you don't agree wtih it.
are you saying that you disagree with it's conclusion that Hillary is going to win PA, KY, WV by large margins and IN by high single digits?
are you saying that all of his maps are false?
there obviously is some speculation because he calls it one scenario (though plausible), not a prediction...
i'm sure it upsets you because any scenario that is favorable to hillary makes you react so violently.
April 4, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hmm, I read the article, I would call it interesting, but not really plausible. The margins he's positing suggest more than just bad demographics for Obama, they are more along the lines of a complete collapse of his campaign.
Also, adding in the Florida numbers is undoable. The folks were told their votes would not count. Ergo, an untold number of people who otherwise would have voted in the primary did not because they reasonably believed it a pointless beauty contest. I doubt anybody at the time would have expected an ex post validation of the results, either formally or informally. Attempts to count such invalid votes suggest a certain desire to paint things Hillary's way.
April 4, 2008 7:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think he is off on PA and IN but ill focus on my home state of NC.
"Looking at my map above, it is more Appalachian than South Carolina by far -- the region only grazes the northeastern tip of that state (where Obama did his worst by far). It is more so than Virginia or Georgia as well. Adjusting for the greater App. presence (three Congressional districts -- 1/4 of the state's total -- fall largely within the region) let's bring Obama's margin down from the 63% or so he got in GA and VA to around 59%." Ok a few problems with that Yes Hillary normally does better in the Appalachian area because its more of a republican area normally... however this is only somewhat the case in NC. In NC the biggest population area in the Appalachian is Asheville. Now Asheville Liberal, not just your ordinary liberal i mean holy shit they are liberal kind of liberal. The other area that has people is near by to the south in Hendersonville which also is more liberal then other areas. Now another population area for the mountains is Boone which is up more north, it also is more liberal then most place and lets not forget ASU is there.
April 4, 2008 3:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
To continue he said the mountain area which he said is about 1/4 of NC population which is also a bit off since NC has a population around 9 million atm with those three zones he mentioned at around 2 million each. so that leaves us with 3 million, which ill ball park splits the coast line area and the west coast in half at 1.5 each. So its more like 1/6 of NC not 1/4, also take into account that the 1/4 of that population includes the very liberal areas that i mentioned before. To see a 2000 map of NC population you can go to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:North_Carolina_population_map.png
Now this map is old but the newer version will favor Obama even more since NC has grown more centered around the cities and not the rural areas, (remember John Edwards said that Plants were being closed down in the rural areas of NC, well he wasn't kidding many of the rural areas in NC have lost population in the past 8 years not gain.) now the cities on the other hand have been seeing rapid growth in recent years. Which is the reason why NC got bumped up to the 10th largest state in the US.
April 4, 2008 3:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
He also fails to account for a few other factors that make NC different then other states, one being the amount of colleges NC has... ill just name some of the more well known or at least known to me
Appalachian State University
Catawba College
Davidson College
Duke University
East Carolina University
Fayetteville State University
Gardner-Webb University
Greensboro College
High Point University
North Carolina Central University
North Carolina School of the Arts
North Carolina State University
Pfeiffer University
Queens University
UNC at Asheville
UNC at Chapel Hill
UNC at Charlotte
UNC at Greensboro
UNC at Pembroke
UNC at Wilmington
Wake Forest University
Western Carolina University
Winston-Salem State University
Over all he is just guessing all hes doing is looking at the more recent polls then making a guess. Hence why he gave NC a 12 for Obama which atm is the spread for RCP but that includes some old polls that are wrong demographic wise if you look their cross tabs.
April 4, 2008 3:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary is not going to win Pennsylvania by 20 points. There is NO state where Obama has campaigned where he has failed to close up the gap. Pennsylvania will be no different. Even if you ignore individual poll results, the trends are clear: he's closing the gap. In fact, the way things are going, Hillary could screw up again and lose this thing. Joking about snipers on Leno, for instance, isn't the brightest move when Americans are dying to sniper fire in a war that she helped start. Hillary has become her own worst enemy.
April 4, 2008 1:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
She better, or her campaign is over.
April 4, 2008 11:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
I thought her campaign was over if she lost texas...
yet here we are.
April 4, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
6 weeks out she had a 20+ point lead
3 weeks out it's down to anywhere from 2 points to 11, depending upon the poll.
Regardless of the metric being used, the numbers are all looking good for Obama going into 4/22.
April 4, 2008 11:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hm, I don't know...406 is a pretty small sample size. However, it does again confirm the Obama swing all the other polls are showing. Will he win? Probably not, but if things keep going as they are, it will be a squeaker...which is good for Obama.
April 4, 2008 11:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR HILLARY!!!
April 4, 2008 11:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
HILLARY UP BY 9 FOR THE SECOND TIME IN A WEEK- IN INDIANA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
April 4, 2008 11:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
she'll be lucky to last until Indiana.
Call me when she wins.
April 4, 2008 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Be happy to call you - 3 A.M OK?
April 4, 2008 1:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Morning call? Who the hell is that? The poll is based on a very small sample any way.
April 4, 2008 11:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Within ten points is victory for Obama. It shows he can compete anywhere, even a state incredibly stacked against him. He's almost there.
Inasmuch as he has continually narrowed the gap and hasn't lost ground like she has - I agree.
April 4, 2008 11:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary is losing the race nationally despite a huge financial advantage at the outset, with an equally insurmountable lead in the polls.
Now that she has only dropped something like 20 points since her peak, her supporters cast her as the David confronting the evil Goliath Obama. It's all the Hillary camp has, but it sure isn't much.
April 4, 2008 11:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm still waiting for Weaver to answer the two simple questions I asked him yesterday when I was nice enough to answer his question (which I'm sure was a waste of time and energy, but who doesn't like to talk about themselves?)
Weaver: do you or do you not believe there is such a thing as anti-semitism?
And: do you really believe most people are as good as you claim to be about disregarding someone's race?
April 4, 2008 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, of course there are instances of anti-semitism, just as there are instances of racism, sexism, and so forth. Your point?
And regarding whether I consider people non-racist? Yes, I prefer to start there and if they prove otherwise, so be it. I don't see any constructive or positive upside to approaching everyone as if they are racist and then with that chip on my shoulder expecting them to prove otherwise. People that instead do so simply are reflecting there own racism.
Matthew
http://www.TheProblemWithObama.com
April 4, 2008 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Matthew Weaver,
You're about as ironic as Hillary's MLK speech in Memphis today.
www.hillaryusesracisttactics.com
April 4, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, this poll might not be such good news for Clinton. Aside from the small sample, it was conducted over several days - from 3/27-4/02. It is very possible that she was pulling better numbers in the early part of the polling period as polls where data was collected more recently (PPD, Rasmussen, and Insider Advantage) show her leading by a range of 2-5%.
April 4, 2008 11:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's a really good catch.
Although SUSA, which is a pretty good firm, has her up 12, and was taken just a few days ago. Also Quinnipiac has her up 9.
I suspect that she IS up by about that much, but that in the end, Obama will keep her margin down to 5-6 points.
April 4, 2008 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Quinnipac was taken over a week too. The week ending 3/31. It was also of registered voters, not likely voters.
April 4, 2008 8:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Time for people to Wake Up!
Obama constantly disrespects the Clinton Administration preferring the
transformative Reaganomics to the improvements with Clintonomics which created 22 million new jobs. It is a stretch to think this do-nothing
freshman Senator from Illinois can impute the character of one of the most successful Democratic presidents since FDR and get away with it with impunity. It is a new day and we don't have to give the black man a pass. Investigate. Obama referred to his white grandmother as a "typical white person." So what do you think the response would be if Hillary Clinton referred to a black person, any black person, or even Obama as a "typical" black person? Is this language of Barack Obama the change we can all believe in if he is the nominee?
I haven't heard Obama condemn his minister of 20 years for being antisemitic, have you? I haven't heard Obama say how he told his minister, who he considered an uncle, how inappropriate his views when they had one of their many private dinners together, have you?
I have heard Obama say he condemned Rezko for any crimes he may be guilty of, as-if he didn't know when many of Rezko's projects were only blocks away from Obama's office - and were taking place even as Obama interceded for Rezko in obtaining millions of dollars of tax payer money to finance the crime.
Why is the media NOT critical of Barack Obama like they are of Hillary Clinton? How does this guy get another pass? If anything should bring him down now it is his perfidy with regard to minister Wright and yet, the press which is riddled with white guilt is afraid to mention it - and the progressive blogosphere continues to drool over everything he says and does. Obama referred to his white grandmother as a "typical white person." So what do you think the response would be if Hillary Clinton referred to a black person, any black person, or even Obama as a "typical" black person? Is this language of Barack Obama the change we can all believe in if he is the nominee?
I haven't heard Obama condemn his minister of 20 years for being antisemitic, have you? I haven't heard Obama say how he told his minister, who he considered an uncle, how inappropriate his views when they had one of their many private dinners together, have you?
I have heard Obama say he condemned Rezko for any crimes he may be guilty of, as-if he didn't know when many of Rezko's projects were only blocks away from Obama's office - and were taking place even as Obama interceded for Rezko in obtaining millions of dollars of tax payer money to finance the crime.
This Rezco thing stinks to high heavan. Obama surely knew what Rev Wright was selling. What was it you Obama peopel did not like about the Clinton Years? Was it the Peace or the prosperity?
April 4, 2008 11:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sigh. If I had a buck for every damn time some Clintonista with a computer started a long, incoherent rant about Obama with a demand that I "wake up!" and see that Only Hillary has the Strength and Experience to Fight the Republicans and Govern Starting on Day One, I'd be richer than the last Powerball winner.
April 4, 2008 12:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why do I have to read this crazy rant twice?
Why do I have to read this crazy rant twice?
Get over it, Hillary's candidacy is fading, and no amount of right wing talking points are going to change that simple fact. The more Hillary and her supporters go negative and talk about the past, the more people tune you out.
What was it we didn't like about the Clinton years? Hillary.
April 4, 2008 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know that your handle there is a likely concatenation of "Dem Bill C." So i'm guessing that it's the grounded in innuendo and smoke tone of everything you post here that makes my brain continue to read it as "imbicilic."
Go figure.
April 4, 2008 12:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow! I thought I was the only one whose brain did that...or a combination of "dim" and "imbecilic." It's not nice, but it is unintentional, I swear.
April 4, 2008 12:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
democrats have been disrespecting the clinton administration for years. welcome to democratic discussion-- you must be relatively new.
(based on your handle, I assume you're a troll, but I'll bite anyway..)
the marginalization of the party's base under clinton due to the triangulating strategies he employed basically led to elections where the dems were seen simply as republican-lite, with no real values to fight for. bill obviously did a great job in many ways (esp compared to dubya), but basically killed the party's popularity and enthusiasm by the end of his last term. many see bill's high approval ratings in 2000, dems losing congress, and gore's loss, all as different results of clinton's style and the impeachment process.
in other words, obama's "disrespect" is one more reason to vote for him.
wake up, indeed.
April 4, 2008 1:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm pretty comfortable thinking that at this stage, with the evidence we've seen, that this is something under a ten point race. Anything under 15% for Hillary and she doesn't get the blowout she needs. But I think we can all agree that 2.5 weeks is an eternity until PA actually votes.
April 4, 2008 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
got any backup for that, ace?
April 4, 2008 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
This "poll" had fewer than five hundred respondents polled over the course of an entire week, 3/27 - 4/2. Thus, it has a high margin of error and a long polling duration during a time lots of important stuff was happening.
My point is that the final numbers of this one are short on meaning if the question is "where is the race as of today." Arguing as if it were otherwise is silly.
The trendline from their last poll in February is, however, somewhat more meaningful.
April 4, 2008 12:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
This "Clintonomics" rhetoric is a sham. The new jobs were created by a tech-based bubble which Clinton had nothing to do with it. The real Clinton domestic legacy consists of NAFTA and welfare reform- two pieces of Republican legislation.
Clinton the Triangulator was an asset neither to the Democratic party (from which he sucked all the oxygen) nor to working people.
Mind you, I'm not that terrifically excited that yet another cautious centrist, Obama, with be our nominee. But what he does offer us is a new model for the party, based on the lessons of the Dean campaign: a party that is organized from the bottom up, to compete in all 50 states. Eventually, the power unleashed by this model will be used by a true progressive to build a lasting progressive majority. But putting the Clintons and their disgusting Penn / McAuliffe clique back in control of the party would send us back to square one and will delay that prospect for many more decades. THAT is what's really at stake in this nomination contest.
April 4, 2008 12:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I sure wish Hillary supporters could say something nice about Hillary, rather than regurgitate right-wing talking points about Obama...
It sure doesn't make them look good. Or smart.
April 4, 2008 12:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
People that instead do so simply are reflecting there own racism.
ROFLMAO.
Yeah, or they are honest enough to look at themselves and understand themselves and understand there is racism and anti-semitism and chauvinism inherent in this society and it imprints itself on every last one of us.
Anyone who rejects that is fooling themselves, Weaver.
April 4, 2008 12:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, dear Lord. Hillary is giving one of the most uninspired and uninspiring speeches I've ever heard in my life. Why is she still in this race? She has NOTHING to offer except rancor and division.
She's spent months attacking the brightest young African-American politician in recent history, and now she's talking about the accomplishments of Dr. King? It's pathetically hypocritical. Barack Obama is the EMBODIMENT of the accomplishments of Dr. King. If Hillary had run against Dr. King, she would have smeared him too. She has no shame.
April 4, 2008 12:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Love the picture! Can you imagine what kind of a dickhead gets his kicks coming onto a site like this and spewing low-brow goads and taunts for the express purpose of pissing everyone else off. But he supports Clinton and dirty tricks. It all hangs together.
April 4, 2008 12:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
AWWWWRIGHTTT!!!! She's dredging up the tears!!!! Gettin' weepy. Oooh, Hillary, you're so DEEP! Cry, baby, cry! That'll win you Pennsylvania for sure.
God, she's disgusting.
April 4, 2008 12:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
As someone who's worked in politics, I'm sure you'll understand if we democrats disregard people who call themselves democrats but who don't vote for democrats. At the polling place, conduct trumps status; so thanks for your service to the party, but now you can get out of the way.
April 4, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
The reason you won't vote for Obama is because you're an idiot and a racist, Mathew.
Blockheads like yourself who would put McCon in office should go enlist in the armed forces so you can fight in the endless wars that your idiocy will bring.
Or better yet, just go cap yourself so that hedgehog living on your head can return to its family.
April 4, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, everybody--I just found an amazing right-wing hate site. Here's the URL:
http://www.theproblemwithobama.com/
Looks like maybe some winger has an axe to grind. Probably a Rush Limbaugh loony. Wow, what a nutjob.
April 4, 2008 1:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
"That lead is down three points from mid-February. Since then, Obama barnstormed the state by bus and unleashed a Pennsylvania ad blitz, which the Call estimates is costing the Obama campaign $325,000 per day, as compared to Hillary's $120,000 per day."
More unbiased reporting from Mr. Unbiased. Greg: you're on to something, I think. Obama is trying to BUY the nomination!!!! THAT'S WHY HE'S SPENDING SO MUCH MORE THAN HILLARY!!! This whole "meme" about how he's raising more cash because he has a more invigorated base is just nonsense. This is a clear attempt by Obama to buy his way into the White House. There's probably billions of dollars in corporate Muslim hate-monger money behind this! It's going to take the efforts of a truly talented investigative reporter to get to the bottom of this. That reporter is YOU, Greg. Report back to us when you have some results. But not before then, OK, Greg? This story is too important. We want you on it full time.
April 4, 2008 1:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
He was in the Marines and Navy? How unpatriotic. Everyone knows that a true patriot gets multiple deferments.
April 4, 2008 1:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I second that - every New Yorker I know, and I know a bunch, can't stand her.
Just like they can't stand Rudy.
Seriously.
April 4, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Um, guys, you do know that Freepers and other rabid right wingers call Democrats "dims" don't you?"
I can't get a fix on how many of these so called Clinton supporters are really trolls, but I caught one last week using the term: "heartland" and when I called him on it, he blew up with a squeak and a cloud of noxious gas and hasn't been seen since.
April 4, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
hrebendorf,
Are you enjoying yourself with marking up pictures? Very mature and reflects so well on you and others supporting Obama.
Regarding the new picture of Obama that I am using, it is real and was reportedly taken at the Capital recently. It was part of discussion that noted Obama has again taken up smoking.
Matthew
http://www.TheProblemWithObama.com
April 4, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
What the hell is wrong with you?
PS: The KKK called;they miss you.
April 4, 2008 2:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, dimwit, it was not taken recently. Wonkette, a site that, amazingly, towers above you in accuracy, substance and maturity, started running it early last year, before Obama even announced and before he quit smoking.
April 4, 2008 8:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
hrebendorf,
Are you enjoying yourself with marking up pictures? Very mature and reflects so well on you and others supporting Obama.
Regarding the new picture of Obama that I am using, it is real and was reportedly taken at the Capital recently. It was part of discussion that noted Obama has again taken up smoking.
Matthew
http://www.TheProblemWithObama.com
April 4, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Matthew Weaver,
I am part of the discussion that is saying that if you post the same thing two times, it won't make people think that you're not on crack.
www.matthewweaverisoncrack.com
April 4, 2008 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree, hrebendorf. Greg should have bothered to check out the dates of the survey and the sample size, which were stated clearly in the article. The implication that this survey reflects the results of Obama's "barnstorming tour" and "Pennsylvania blitz" is not correct, and Greg should have done a better job of presenting the facts.
With reporting like this, why do we need the MSM?
April 4, 2008 2:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Does anyone have an idea about the huge variation in the PA polling numbers these last few days? Which pollster has the best record?
April 4, 2008 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
This prolonged primary has generated record numbers of voters & tons of enthusiasm & interest. It won't be a negative unless we make it one. Can't we all unite behind the idea of making Karl Rove cry?
April 4, 2008 5:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I s'pect we'll get there.
:)
April 4, 2008 7:35 PM | Reply | Permalink