FIREWALL!

I'm glad Obama's doing so well, and am excited that maybe he'll do spectacularly well! But I find the demographics obsession increasingly creepy.

From Insider Advantage's press release touting this poll:

This could be the beginning of the end of the Clinton campaign. The crosstabs show Obama trailing among white voters, but by only a 49%-40% margin. More importantly, Obama has a lead among African-American voters of 56%-29%, with the remainder undecided.

It is almost impossible to imagine that the African-American vote will not consolidate to the levels we have seen in other states, which would put Obama closer to 70%-plus with blacks. Clinton would need a large, disproportionate turnout of white voters to have a real shot at pulling off a substantial win in the contest.

Insider Advantage has only a so-so record this season, so I am not prepared to get my hopes up too much based on this poll (especially if SUSA is still showing her with a 12 pt lead), but I still thought that this particular detail was worth highlighting.

Insider Advantage? Nope. I'm not biting.

And you really should start reporting the undecided number. In this case, it's significant: 12%.

So much for PPP being an "outlier."

Can I say "Told you so"?

Yikes.
I am an Obamanite but I am a little (a lot) surprised at how fast the HRC lead is shrinking considering she was almost 20pts up 2 weeks ago.

I saw one quote from a PA voter that said he had been an HRC supporter but now that he is getting to know BHO, he is surprised how much he likes him.

Looks like the campaigning and the HRC is toast news coverage is helping.

i have a feeling that the results from pennsylvania might surprise people.

I'm not calling for an obama win, but i think it just might be close enough to make hillary sweat.

I have no idea whether this poll and PPP are right or not, and, with nearly three weeks to go, it doesn't matter. But I think we know this with near-certainty: If polling continues to show the race tightening, Hillary won't be throwing the kitchen sink at Obama -- she'll be throwing shit and far more of it than they've yet hurled.

Greg,

Apologies if I missed it, but Speaker Pelosi's volunteered, stern reminder this morning that superdelegates should NOT overturn the will of the people is newsworthy, IMO. She said not overturning the will of the voters is part of the "discretion" that superdels are empowered to exercise, and is consistent with hers and others' comments that they should exercise "discretion." IOW, discretion=don't overturn popular will.

Could that be part of the genesis of those new remarks from the Clinton campaign in your new link upstairs?

I concur with Greg D, as usual. I'm ignoring this poll and PP as they have generally been unreliable. Once we start seeing slippage in SUSA, then count me as a Penna. believer.

The demographics on this poll are just too whack to allow for a credible impression.

There's a 12 point undecided in this poll, similar to PPP. I wonder if SurveyUSA's forcing (encouraging) voters to decide candidates accounts for Clinton's big lead in SurveyUSA.

These are the voters Obama needs to get, the low lying fruit --. those who are vaguely undecided but leaning to Clinton. Madison Avenue says it's feasible; Obama is outspending Clinton in ads by a big margin.

from pollster.com

(Note, this document says 45.3 to 42.4 and this document says 45 to 43.)

how can you round up 0.4 to 1.

there is something wrong with the poll.

when was the last time Hillary got 26% of the black vote anywhere.

this is not Kosher.

and by the way " Clinton Delenda est"

"Hillary has been running as the incumbent candidate all along, and is the default choice for most democrats. Without clear strength in the days before voting, those late deciders will hand any close election to Clinton."

I think this is right. Clinton gets the late deciders and fence sitters.

It takes some courage to choose change.

But it still could be awfully close.

All i am saying about this poll is REMEMBER NEW HAMPSHIRE?

Exit Polls and the Josh Marshalls of the world are all to eager to perpetuate a form of Virtual Voter Segregation.

No - it changes the way Democrats look at elections - finally.

This is how we break through the Southern Strategy that has kept us losing election after election.

It is partly about people voting who usually don't. I agree race is made too much of - there is youth there, and it leaves out us progressives.

Still - this matters because this is our key to building a different voting coalition and strengthening part of our society that needs it and it will keep people voting I think. I hope.

Beware of the fast-closing Obama polls. We've been burned way too many times already. Remember NH, CA, MA, OH, TX? Clinton originally had huge leads (20% or more) and days or weeks before it fell to tied or Obama up a few points. I am still convinced if Obama loses by less than 10%, he should consider it a moral victory. I'd hate for all the press to "think" Obama might win PA and then Clinton wins by 5% and calls it a big comeback.

I don't trust these polls. The southern tier of New York bleeds in PA. Clinton should own this state. Again, a 15% victory by her means Obama has weathered a storm. 10% would be fantastic. Let's be realistic. Senator Clinton -- with her demographic appeal -- should win PA 60-40,

From someone who knows the terrain.

Senator Bob Casey told Ed. Schultz, today, that he could not predict a win for Senator Obama. He said it is a very uphill struggle to overcome having both Bill and Hillary having spent a lot of time in Pennsylvania for more than fifteen years.

He sees it as a good opportunity for Senator Obama to introduce himself to the people of the state, but does not expect that he will be able to spend enough time there to overtake the vast amount of time that both Clintons have spent in the state over the course of many years.

Senator Casey concluded that he views it as a Obama laying the groundwork now, for the November contest against John McCain.

That has been how I have always viewed it too.

Do not let the polls distort your perspective on the race. Hillary is the prohibitive favorite to carry Pennsylvania by a very large margin.

She must sustain that huge margin, or once again she will be exposed as some one who usually surrenders huge leads in the stretch runs. That is not the type of candidate you want coming down the stretch at the end of October. Hillary has gone all wobbly in almost every stretch run where she started out with huge leads.

Let us see if she can sustain a huge lead this time. If not, then she is not capable of winning in November.

Easy folks,we've won nothing until B.O.'s sworn-in as POTUS. Time to double-down on volunteerism and donations. Go to Barack's website to find a volunteer event near you, or throw some cash to the campaign. If your state has yet to vote, make sure you bring someone with you to the polls.We've won nothing until President Obama is sworn in.

I do not believe these polls.

Each time they claim that Obama is closing in on Hill she seems to always pull it out. In fact, their seems to be a distinct pattern. Whenever,Obama closes her 20 point leads down to single digits..she hits with a really negative ad late that Fri...and by Tues she is up in the polls and wins.

Recall, she hit with the pro-life lies in NH, then she hit with the 3AM ad in TX and the NAFTA lies in OH and now she is having the endlessly Wright controversy.
So, I expect something new on Wright.

What I do not understand is how Axelrod has not figured this out. Obama's campaign needs to be ready with a hard hitting ad on Hillary in the last 48 hours before the vote.

PA seems a good place to hit hard on her NAFTA lies and Bosnia lies.

I expect Obama to lose PA.

GAME ON