THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR HILLARY!!!

Okay, if Zogby's with the others who see the race tightening, then SUSA's 18 point spread all of a sudden looks much more reliable.

Always good to see what Zogby has to say after he brings his unique blend of data collection and analysis through divanation to bear.

I've always imagined that he's got people in one room collecting data and running crosstabs, people in another room running the planchet over a Ouija board, people in the next room casting chicken bones onto the floor, next room has a guy tossing coins and referring to the I Ching . . .

When is this primary, for the love of god. I hope it's soon. I can't take much more of these bouncing numbers, though I do love it when it bounces this way. Can I hope we're getting ready to strike while this iron is hot?

I didn't realize that anyone took Zogby seriously anymore.

Oh, that's right, they don't. Next can you consult a soothsayer? I bet dollars to donuts it'll be more accurate.

Here is a poll that may be providing a more realistic snap shot of Pennsylvania at the present time.

A hair of the Zogby that bit you, so to speak.(Yes you are right; I am so ashamed of myself.)

http://www.temple.edu/newsroom/2007_2008/04/stories/Templepoll_Pennsylvania.htm

Senator Hillary Clinton leads Senator Barack Obama by 44 – 35 percent among Pennsylvanians likely to vote in the Democratic presidential primary on April 22. Nineteen percent remain undecided or refuse to express a preference, but that group leans toward Obama. Adding in the undecided voters who lean to one candidate or the other shrinks Clinton’s lead to 47 – 41 percent.

Asked to express an opinion about the candidates on a scale from 0 to 10, just 1 percent of likely voters say they don’t know enough about the candidates to rate them. “Not many Pennsylvanians who are


Percent

Preferences of undecided

Including preferences of undecided
Clinton

44

3

47
Obama

35

6

41
Another candidate

2


2
Don’t know/not sure

17


9
Refused

2


2

likely to vote in the primary remain uncertain about the candidates or their choice,” said Michael G. Hagen, director of Temple’s Institute for Public Affairs. “That’s why, despite the growing intensity of the campaign, we’ve seen very little reliable change in the polls over the past several weeks.”

Differences among demographic groups are stark:
• 83 percent of blacks favor Obama, compared to 31 percent of whites
• 79 percent under the age of 30 favor Obama, compared to 28 percent over 60 years old
• 55 percent of women favor Clinton, compared to 32 percent of men

The contest is strikingly close, however, among white men, with Obama leading in that group, 40 – 35. That group also is especially likely to express equally favorable opinions about Clinton and Obama. “White men stand out as the group with the most ambivalence about the candidates, as a group and individually,” said Hagen. “That is certainly the reason the candidates have focused so much of their attention on white men in recent weeks.”

Wait a minute! Doesn't Zogby get one right every cycle? Maybe this is it!

EastWest: Even accepting your more than dubious claims that Clinton is much stronger against McCain than Obama in PA, that certainly isn't the rule in most swing states. The opposite is true in MI, MN, OR, WA, IA, WI, CO, VA and NM. In the rustbelt states where Hillary poisoned the Dems' pool with her NAFTA demaoguery (PA, OH and MI, principally) Clinton and Obama are pretty much even against McCain.

Just think where those numbers would be if she hadn't decided to lose ugly.

"Just think where those numbers would be if she hadn't decided to lose ugly."

I surely do agree with the "lose ugly" bit, sad to say. Problem is, the idea that Obama can lose the DEMOCRATIC vote in swing states and then turn around and win the GENERAL election in those states is simply misguided.

God help us all, because it's pretty obvious that the Obama fad is going to doom us to at least 4 more years of "Bushit". And if McCain freakin' dies of old age in office, his Veep (Condie????) is a shoo-in for even more years.

It's very possible the polls are closing. Here's an interesting bit from ABC's Note regarding HRC's truthiness:

"But for whatever reason, another "they" -- Pennsylvania voters -- have followed this storyline. (The word around Camp Clinton is that this story is the biggest factor in her Pennsylvania dip -- which is one reason Bill Clinton is trying to explain it away to voters in Indiana.)

"It remains Sen. Clinton who's defending her credibility, honesty, and trustworthiness, keeping the spotlight away from her rival in the closing weeks before April 22."