Poll: Hillary Halts Obama's Progress In Pennsylvania, But Still Only Leads By Six
As promised, here is the new Quinnipiac poll of Pennsylvania.
It finds that while Hillary has halted Obama's progress by stopping the erosion of her support among whites and women, she still clings to a six point lead, 50%-44% -- unchanged from a week ago.
Some key findings:
* The poll found no discernible change in the matchup in polling on April 12-13, the period during which Obama's "small town" comments were heavily reported on by the Pennsylvania media.
* Fully one forth of Hillary supporters in the state would back McCain if Obama became the nominee.
* Hillary made up lots of ground in the Philadelphia suburbs, a key swing area -- she now trails Obama there by two points, down from 11 last week.
* Obama has noticeably increased his share of the male vote.
* Despite Hillary's lead, 55% of Pennsylvania voters think Obama will be the Dem nominee.
* There's been no real change in either candidate's favorability rating.
Full poll here.
Late Update: A new SurveyUSA poll shows a similar lack of movement in the race.















Barack Obama was asked in Pennsylvania whether an Obama administration would seek to prosecute officials of a former Bush administration on the revelations that they greenlighted torture, or for other potential crimes that took place in the White House.
Obama said that as president he would indeed ask his new Attorney General and his deputies to "immediately review the information that's already there" and determine if an inquiry is warranted.
---
It's the one ligering question that has been on my mind, and it's great to hear that Obama plans to hold the Bush administration accountable.
Complete story here: http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/attytood/Barack_on_torture.html
April 15, 2008 7:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hopefully it will happen, but that's politician double-talk there. I wouldn't hold your breath.
April 15, 2008 8:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, even as an Obama fan here, I've got to agree with Foreigner. Don't hold your breath.
April 15, 2008 8:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
oh please.
April 15, 2008 10:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
One of many polls with more to come. Hillary will win PA by 20%, there is a strong Doug Wilder/Tom Bradley effect in PA not shown in the poll though it's sample seems quite large.
Senator Clinton wins PA by 20%, IN by 10% and makes it close in NC (under 10%). Barry-O wins NC and OR of the remaining contests and the fight goes on.
April 15, 2008 8:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
If your predictions don't work out, will you go back to Little Green Footballs? Please?
April 15, 2008 9:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Pennsylvania, Indiana, W. Va. and Kentucky are Hillary's backyard. Tracy Flick is gonna crush Obama in those contests.
April 15, 2008 10:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
@Marginal Player, the number of undecideds indicate that the Bradley effect will not be large. Expect from this poll a 55-45 victory for Clinton right now. Expect that to narrow a little, as Obama has suffered his worst week ever this campaign and survived.
Notice I wrote Clinton, not Billary, HillBilly, or some other term the candidate would not use. Why Barry-O, except to show your unwillingness to treat people as people? You wrote Senator Clinton. Perhaps you might try practicing writing Senator Obama.
And not too distant, you might want to practice writing President Obama, if you can stomach it.
April 15, 2008 8:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Long-lost article by Obama's dad surfaces
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9610.html
The Obama daddy's socialist article:
http://gregransom.com/prestopundit/2008/04/gregs-guide-to-barack-obamas-d.html
April 15, 2008 8:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
I've seen the movie Smokey and the Bandit more times than Obama saw his father.
Your point?
April 15, 2008 8:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
My father, who I love dearly and see several times a year, is more conservative than Pat Buchanan & Dick Cheney combined. My mother, who I also love, has never voted for a Democrat in her life. She will be 70 next year.
Your point?
April 15, 2008 8:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
You do exhibit the 'marginal' intellect very well.
Did you actually read Obama Sr's paper from the '60's? I did. It was a critique of the 'socialist' phoniness of the then Kenyan planners, and was quite prescient.
April 15, 2008 8:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, the Politico digging up irrelevent dirt against Obama? Who would have thought! Shocked!
I bet that GOP shill Ben Smith a--hole wet his pants again over that.
Ben Smith & Jake Tapper = GOP shills
April 15, 2008 9:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Of course the Politico story refutes Ransom's mindless ravings and exposes his lack of basic reading comprehension skills. Though I suspect Politico buried that part under the "socialist" label with Marginal Player in mind.
April 15, 2008 10:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
This poll is also Quinipiac, a highly regarded pollster.
April 15, 2008 8:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary clings to a 6-point lead? I wonder if she's bitter about that.
April 15, 2008 8:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why else would one cling to anything? Clearly, Greg is attempting to insult Hillary here in order to get back in the good graces of those who were offended by boilerplate-gate.
April 15, 2008 8:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
"If I found out that there were high officials who knowingly, consciously broke existing laws, engaged in coverups of those crimes with knowledge forefront, then I think a basic principle of our Constitution is nobody above the law -- and I think that's roughly how I would look at it." Barack Obama
No politician double-talk there. Obama makes it perfectly clear how he see it.
April 15, 2008 8:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
What this means is that any "public opinion" outrage later expressed about Obama's rather obscure comments will have been produced by deliberate ginning up from the Clinton campaign. They probably know it won't happen spontaneously, which is why they ARE deliberately prolonging and demagoguing this issue. It will work to some degree.
April 15, 2008 8:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
SUSA's latest poll has Clinton up by 14 points.
April 15, 2008 8:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
any link?
April 15, 2008 9:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.nbc10.com/politics/15884424/detail.html
April 15, 2008 9:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, that's more like it. Hillary by 20%+ in PA.
April 15, 2008 9:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Finally, a poll I agree with. That's more like it.
April 15, 2008 9:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Finally, a poll that fits my anti-Obama worldview. That's more like it.
(Wonder if I can find a poll that has the Browns winning the Super Bowl and the Tribe winning the Series? THAT'd be more like it.)
April 15, 2008 10:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
What I found interesting in the details of this poll was that the majority of respondents across all categories believe that Obama will be the Democratic nominee, including the Hillary supporters.
April 15, 2008 8:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sounds to me like Pennsylvania voters recognize that the flap over Obama's remarks was bullshit inspired by two candidates who are used to talking down to voters as if they have the intelligence of a three-year-old and a news media that is utterly clueless about what life is like for working families. If Obama hasn't dropped after several days of relentlessly negative publicity, that speaks to the futility of Hillary's help-McCain strategy.
April 15, 2008 8:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Every single day she stays in this race is a bonus for McCain. The Republicans never had it easier.
Share on Clinton and the Democratic party for not ending this sooner.
April 15, 2008 8:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm actually beginning to think the Dems aren't hurting so bad by the long race. McCain got his bump from being the presumptive nominee and that merely pulled him even. Not good. And the only time McCain makes news is when he says something stupid (at the clip of about once a week) and has been reduced to following the Dems to Pennsylvania to get media coverage. Oh, and he still can't raise money.
Meanwhile, the Dems are getting all the coverage, raising a ton of money - if you're Obama - and engaging voters, laying the ground work in Pennsylavania, North Carolina etc. for the fall campaign.
Once the Dems decide this - and hopefully it's within a couple months - the nominee is going to get a 10 point bounce. At least.
I'm not saying it's all good. I'm just saying it's not all bad.
April 15, 2008 9:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Not to mention registering voters.
I flip-flop on this from time to time, but I actually do think that, in the long run, this prolonged campaign will be a benefit to Obama. Of course, it'd be even more of a benefit if Clinton wasn't trying to make Obama look worse than McCain, but c'est la vie.
April 15, 2008 9:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Cue gotalife to insist that they only polled "elitist" Pennsylvanians.
April 15, 2008 9:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
And he's outspending her what 3-to-1? 4-to-1 at this point? I guess $50 million doesn't buy what it used to, but that's inflation for you.
Barack Obama has been spending so much money on advertising in PA that at least one recent poll suggests it's gone beyond diminishing returns and perhaps started backfiring. Some people say they're getting so sick of seeing his ads that they're considering voting against him on that basis alone.
April 15, 2008 9:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Somebody should do research into the "sweet spot" for saturation advertising: when is it too much, and does it matter if your opponent is generating the same amount of advertising. Seems like a worthwhile study project.
April 15, 2008 11:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Clinton has opened a nine-percentage point lead in Pennsylvania (noted within the daily poll 4/15/08). Also, Barry-O has 49% negatives. The best is yet to come.
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
April 15, 2008 9:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think a better way to explain what's happened in PA is to say that Obama has narrowed a 20 point Clinton lead to 9 points. In spite of a Hillary-manufactured nontroversy and her pantomime of being jus' reglar folks.
But then again, you're not really interested in accuracy, are you?
April 15, 2008 9:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
It concluded that 54 percent would vote for Clinton and 40 percent would vote for Obama. Three percent chose the "other" category. Or maybe 14%. I'm from PA, Hillary will win by 20%+. Another big state loss by Barry-O running for socialist-in-chief.
April 15, 2008 9:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.nbc10.com/politics/15884424/detail.html
Forgot the link as it was offered by Rajesh.
Survey USA, the most accurate polling organization to date (which isn't saying too much) has Barry-O down by 14%. Love your glass half full Kool-Aid.
April 15, 2008 9:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Again, your ridiculous "down by" construction implies that he's lost ground, which all honest people know to be bullshit. Hillary is the one who's lost ground in PA - at least 6 points according the poll you just cited, 14 points according the Quinnipac poll cited in the post. But you can keep on pretending whatever you want to pretend in your happy sparkle pony land.
I don't mind you being a fool, but do you have to be a lying fool?
April 15, 2008 10:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
He's gained 2% and she's lost 2% according to today's Survey USA tracking poll Marginal Player is citing. Moron.
April 15, 2008 10:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Could have been worse. She could have rounded up a bunch of reporters and gone bowling, say.
April 15, 2008 9:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually worse than that is throwing down shots and acting like you are a seasoned hunter - how embarrassing..
April 15, 2008 10:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
CORRECTION:
should read
April 15, 2008 9:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Right. Let's remember that in 2000 more than a third of McCain and Bush backers said they wouldn't voter for the other candidate. That didn't exactly pan out.
April 15, 2008 10:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Also, it's "fully one FOURTH," rather than "one FORTH," I believe.
April 15, 2008 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Marginal player: I have been knocking on doors for the Obama campaign in northeast Philly. This is Clinton country. Lots of rednecks. People with no college education and voters who have little or lots of misinformation about each of the candidates.
Believe me, if people are voting for Clinton, they have no problem telling me. I've also been told by people there that I'm "stupid" to be volunteering for Obama. So we know where we stand there and I'd rather have them tell me then pussyfoot around the issue.
Pennsylvania is not like New Hampshire, where voters may have felt some pressure to be politically correct to pollsters and then vote otherwise in the primay.
But Pennsylvania is a state where people tend to say what's on their mind.
For those who are racist, Obama wasn't gonna win them anyway. I predict little or no Bradley effect
April 15, 2008 10:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Per Loudon:
"Lots of rednecks. People with no college education and voters who have little or lots of misinformation about each of the candidates."
You are typical of the Barry-O fan club.
Northeast Philly is white, Catholic and/or Jewish. I suggest you try North Philly, you'll have better success.
April 15, 2008 10:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
She was up by 18 in the last SUSA PA poll, and is now up by 14. Sounds to me like the race is getting closer, not like it will be HRC +20%. It also seems like Obama is suffering because he is not paying "street money" in the Philly area. I don't know enough about it to know whether this is a good thing or not, but they did predict that he would be hurt by it in Philly.
April 15, 2008 10:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually the SUSA poll is very encouraging for Obama: he's gained two points since last week and Clinton has lost points. Go figure.
April 15, 2008 10:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Marginal Player: in that Rasmussen poll you quote: Obama does better than Hillary against McCain and he is 9 points ahead of her nationally. He's gained there. Gallup also has him leading her by 10 points nationally.
April 15, 2008 10:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
"He's gained there. Gallup also has him leading her by 10 points nationally."
Ouch!
April 15, 2008 10:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Um, Marginal Player, have you been knocking on doors up there in NE Philly ? I have the name lists and I met the voters. The NE Philly neighborhood has changed. LOTS of rednecks with tattoos. believe me, and lots of missing teeth. Quite a few Irish rednecks, actually. Lots of 35 year old guys reeking of beer and reefer at 11:00 am.
Lots of Hispanics in NE Philly now, too. I met VERY few Jewish voters.
April 15, 2008 10:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Getting Concerned
As an Obama supporter, the most disturbing news to me so far is the PA advertising backlash reported in one of the recent polls.
I am frankly concerned too about his ability to recover among die-hard Hillary supporters, and also in general his ability to win blue collar whites.
However, no matter how much these concerns get to me, I can't understand the bitter resentfulness of people like "Marginal Player" against his success.
In my most sober assessment, he is an excellent candidate who nevertheless may be vulnerable to some of the notorious cultural traps in American politics. Obama is successful because of his positive personal attributes, not because of illusions (though there may be) among his supporters.
On the other hand, the Clintons have created a tragedy of their own. I was an enthusiastic Clinton supporter since casting my very first vote for Bill in 1992, but Hillary has now made herself unacceptable to me in the way she has handled this campaign.
The list of low-ball, appalling, Rove-playbook tactics she's used recently has grown too long. I wish she hadn't gone this route, but she has. And she seems determined now to damage Obama enough to position herself for 2012.
What to do?
Potentially major intra-party problems now loom for either Obama or Hillary as nominee.
I think the best one can hope for at this point is that Obama will have a chance to turn a fresh page after this primary mess gets settled.
April 15, 2008 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
While I'm a moron, a significant minority of Hillary voters (namely those over 55) will never vote for Obama in the GE but will vote McCain, a veteran, and American Hero. Obama supporters may just sit at home but if TPM, ObamaPost, KOS are any indication, I don't expect any interest in Clinton.
Worry if Obama doesn't get 30% of the white vote in PA or IN, if he gets less than 30% he's lost both states in the GE and Super Delegates will worry.
April 15, 2008 11:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Josh may want to address that in his TPM front page article.
April 15, 2008 11:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Clings. Love it. You're ok, Greg.
Hopefully, what people will realize from all these polls, which taken as a whole show very little movement either way, is that the bitter thing is completely overblown and not something the voters actually care about.
Of course, Hillary is completely tone deaf on these issues, so she'll keep pushing it, and the media will keep pushing it up because the alternative would be to focus on *issues* or something boring like that.
But, still, I'll cling to my hope that we'll be able to move on to the real target, McCain, soon.
April 15, 2008 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink