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Poll: Hillary Ahead Of Obama By 8 In Pennsylvania, Obama Trails McCain For The General

The new poll of Pennsylvania from Strategic Vision (R) shows a race that has rapidly tightened in the last three weeks, from a landslide Hillary Clinton lead to only a moderately-sized one:

Clinton 49% (-7)
Obama 41% (+3)

The general election match-ups show that Barack Obama still has a lot of ground to make up here, though, should he ultimately win the Democratic nomination:

McCain (R) 47%, Obama (D) 42%
Clinton (D) 47%, McCain (R) 41%

It would hardly be surprising if the Clinton camp doesn't tout this poll in making their case that they remain the more electable option for the Democrats.


25 Comments

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"a lot of ground to make up"?? Howard, is that you?

C'mon--25 points would be a lot of ground to make up by November....for Obama 5 points is a matter of some town halls and local media appearances. Matchups at this point, before we consolidate around our nominee, are meaningless. I put more stock in the national Gallup poll from a day or two ago showing far more Dems think Obama can win.

It's worth noting here that Strategic Vision has a median error rating of 5, and an average error percentage of 6.31%!

Even Fox News has a better record.

Ironically the most talked about polls lately, from PPP and InsiderAdvantage, both are terrible as well, with a median error of 7 and average error of over 7.5%

In other words, this poll is virtually useless, except to show that Clinton may be ahead by as much as 8 points, but just as likely only ahead by 2

The Clinton campaign must be exhausted from moving these goal posts. Luckily the MSM has the memory of a goldfish....

Yup, and they seem unable (afraid?) to ask Hillary or her people any questions....like, how much of that "close to $20 million" is going to pay your bills (and they are paid off by now, right? Can we see the receipts?)...and how much can you use in the primary? And where are your tax returns? And your earmarks?

Crap, none of us lowly blog addicts went to journalism school and it seems like we can figure out how to "vet" someone a whole lot better than these high-paid professionals newspeeps. What is the deal???

I know that general election polls are only to get a feel of what's going on out there, but why do people put so much emphasis on them? We don't base the results of the general election off of a national poll, or national vote, why should we gage the "strength" of a candidate on them? If you could run a daily tracking poll of the electoral college, then maybe we'd have something, like it or not it's how this thing gets done.

So concern trolly again, eh, Eric?

"It would hardly be surprising if the Clinton camp doesn't tout this poll in making their case that they remain the more electable option for the Democrats."

But they don't need to present that case when the media do it for them. Thanks.

"It would hardly be surprising if the Clinton camp doesn't tout this poll in making their case that they remain the more electable option for the Democrats."

this should be "it would be surprising if the Clinton camp doesn't tout..."

Look what she is saying is: my voters are racist" they vote for me not because they like me or are supporting me, they just cannot vote for "the black guy" somebody need to articulate this loudly mybe Keith Can do it, he would be the next "Juda Bin MSNBC"

I believe that "Clinton Delenda est"

Hillary and her campaign can do whatever they want with this Republican Poll. If the SDs let her steal the nomination there will be hell to pay.

We are tried of them trying to move the goal posts. She'll get the message soon.

When polls are presented in this BS way -- Obama behind, rather than closing the gap, etc., -- I find a level of peace about it knowing that Obama's genuine win cannot be overturned without consequences. It cannot.

So while I do worry about losing in Nov as a direct result of this insane primary, and I do worry about the destruction of the party and the grassroots behind it if cartwheels are twirled and endgames changed, there is tremendous comfort in the confidence that such events will have consequences.

I'm not worried about the general numbers at all. Hypothetical polls really don't mean anything. I am sure many Obama supporters say Mcain even if they don't intend on voting for him against Clinton and the opposite is true of Clinton supporters.

It's an easy way for a supporter to try and make a point without meaning it.

I am also sure Mcain's unopposed run is helping him right now too.

While these polls may be suspect in actual #s, trends within pollsters tend to be fairly reliable, meaning it is pretty obvious Obama is making up a lot of ground...just how much ground is the question.
Also, this poll was conducted through the 30th and is consistent with other polls during that time frame. Other polls that were conducted a few days later (after the bus tour, a few days after the Casey endorsement)all show even more progress from their earlier polls.

Still as long as Obama gets within 10 points, anything else is gravy.

"conducted March 28-30"

An old poll... The other polls in this time frame also showed about a 10 point difference. The more recent ones show it to be closer. More Clinton supporters have now moved into the undecided camp, but it remains to be seen where they go from there. The more people see of Obama, the more they like him.

I'm not worried. If the media ever gets around to "vetting" McCain, we'll hear all about how he's a shovanistic scumbag who hung out with hookers and strippers, had multiple adulterous affairs in his first marriage, and dumped his disabled wife for a younger bimbo named Cindy who has a history of overdosing on meds.

If the media never reports this stuff, we'll know they're in the tank. McCain's military service was honorable. The rest of his biography? Not so much.

McCain is the second coming of Randy "Duke" Cunningham.

Ohhhh! I thought this was a general election poll. So this is just a PA poll?

Not nearly as big a deal as I thought.

It is interesting how everyone reads into polls what they want to see. I think these polls show clearly that Hillary has a much better chance of beating McCain than Obama does. Read the article about the Race Chasm and you will see what I mean. I don't think we are ready to have a black president yet in this country. And I don't think the good old boys are too happy about having a woman president either.

It is interesting. Especially interesting to read data into a poll that isn't reflective of what was polled.

Is America ready for an AA President? That was actually polled. See CNN for details rather than pulling your concern from your nethers. The 76% who thinks it's high time outweighs the 24% of knuckle-draggers if you're having an issue with the math shown.

But you keep up that noble struggle with reality.


I don't agree with the media's view of the racist divides in this campaign, and believe Pennsylvania will disprove it. The media knows that the exit polls were inaccurate in Texas, Ohio and Mississippi because of Rush Republicans, but the last few weeks they are ignoring that fact completely and offering these polls as proof of a racial divide. Certainly Hillary has lost the black vote in large numbers, but that is due a lot to the tactics she has used against Obama. We'll see what happens in Pennsylvania, but I think the media will be proven wrong about Obama's ability to cross racial lines.

user-pic

..."It would hardly be surprising if the Clinton camp doesn't tout this poll in making their case that they remain the more electable option for the Democrats."

It would hardly be surprising that such touting would be run over by other polling data, such as this tid bit from the NYT CBS Poll:

WHO IS BETTER ABLE TO BEAT MCCAIN IN NOVEMBER?
(Among Democratic primary voters)
Obama is 56%
Clinton is 32

Just wait until Pennsylvania's blue collar industrial workers and retirees hear about Mark Penn meeting with the Colombians -- who don't just bust unions, they assassinate union organizers -- to talk about how to ship even more jobs south of the border! Think they'll wind up voting for a duplicitous liar who can't see a screaming conflict of interest even when it's staring her right in the face?

Except for past polls showed Obama winning Pennsylvania and Hillary losing in the general.

Besides, since when does Hillary claim electability from general election polls? I thought it was all about who won in the primary.

". If the media ever gets around to "vetting" McCain, we'll hear all about how he's a shovanistic scumbag who hung out with hookers and strippers, had multiple adulterous affairs in his first marriage, and dumped his disabled wife for a younger bimbo named Cindy who has a history of overdosing on meds."


Yes, if the media ever gets around to vetting him.

Or will the media roll over, until we have 4 more years in Iraq and 8000 dead.

quick question about these polls. i know there are plenty of reasons why we shouldn't trust the daily fluctutations. but has their ever been a hard look at whether or not people exaggerate their dislike of an opposing candidate? i know if someone called me, i'd be tempted to say i'd vote republican if my horse wasn't in the race anymore, though i certainly wouldn't mean it.

looks to me like TPM is searching for polls that look good for Obama because I've never heard of this one.

I stick with Survery USA and she's up by 12 !~so there!

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