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Poll: Hillary Ahead By Eight In Indiana

A new survey of Indiana from Public Policy Polling (D) gives Hillary Clinton a good-sized lead going into Tuesday's primary: Clinton 50%, Obama 42%.

From the internals: Hillary leads 54%-39% among women voters, while Obama has a statistically insignificant 46%-44% edge among men. Other polls have ranged between a similar-sized Hillary lead or a bare advantage for Obama.

From the pollster's analysis: "She may be able to win a strong enough margin Barack Obama is likely to win by in North Carolina. The question then becomes whether a tie on May 6th is enough to keep her in the race."


Comments (145)

Wonderful...keep the good news coming.

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Check out the trend lines in Indiana; if it continues, it will be a big HRC win.

http://www.pollster.com/08-IN-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

LIAR POLL !!!

(insert pounding of fists into carpet here)

HOPEism: The sinking ship is not half full it is half empty.

News flash: "Hope" is not a strategy.


Eric - you want to tell me what meaning this poll has?

You want to explain just how a poll between someone who has already lost the delegate count and the nominee is worth one thing?

Welcome to the carnival, everyone.

If this wasn't being constantly pushed, it would finally find it's place - which is not as big ass news.

She can't make up the difference so why are we doing this?

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Neither candidate won the delegate count yet, Tena.

The pledged delegate race will end with a small advantage, maybe 100 delegate difference out of 3500 with still hundreds left to go. Basically a virtual tie.

This election will be decided by the Superdelegates, which was the reason they were created.

They will look at a virtual tie between two strong candidates, and make up their minds who will be best suited to beat McCain. That would be Hillary.

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There is no such thing as a "virtual tie" when you can count votes.

It should also be pointed out that, a few months ago, Harold Ickes (senior Clinton adviser) pegged 100 pledged delegates as a "significant" lead that would be very hard for superdelegates to reverse.

Of course, this was while it was still all about delegates, and before it was all about popular vote, and even further before it was all about electability.

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You can get a poll that supports any position. 40% of the people know that.

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"...60% of the time, it works everytime...."

---Brian Fantana

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shameful.

she is going to stay in the race, till the end no matter what happens May 6...... after May 6, the other contest favor her......one example: kentucky


I hope she wins both on may 6....make obama look stupid and all his hillary haters.

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shameless.

Yup all the way until the end where she will be told she is NOT the nominee.

What a waste of her supporters money.

The only one looking stupid, my dear, is you - can possibly write in anything approaching a complete, coherent sentence? Fragmented, jumbled writing is a sign of a disordered mind. You really should see someone about that.

No, it just makes her eventual fall that much more spectacular.

It kills me that Clinton supporters can't see this. I'd be dying for her to drop out before it gets any worse, if it were me.

But I'll get pounded by the trolls for that.

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Since you are so selfless, I have a suggestion. You can go to Hillary's headquarters in Alexandra, VA or any of her events and threaten to light yourself up with gasoline if she does not drop out. Let's see what happens after that.

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Inappropriate.

Hillary needs to stay in until the convention, when we can have a bitter floor debate, splinter the party and have Obama lose to McCain. Won't you feel "avenged" then, Hillary supporters? You can spend the next four years saying "I told you so." That's what you really want, right? Why worry about the Iraq war, $4-a-gallon gas, public corruption and a recession - you get to be "right"!

Supreme Court....

Not Oregon. Not necessarily SD and MT.

Dude, I don't hate (or hate on) Hillary. You guys act like this is a sporting event. There's less trash-talking in the Cavs-Wizards series. Grow up, fellas. It's the election, not the Super Bowl.

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It's comments like this that turn the so-called discussion section on TPM into the YouTube comments of political commentary.

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PPP has not done a good job with polling as far as I'm concerned.

I don't trust.

More GOOD News:


The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows John McCain attracting 46% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 45%. In a match-up with Hillary Clinton, it’s Clinton 45% McCain 45%

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, it’s Obama 47%, Clinton 43% (see recent Democratic Nomination results). Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. Today’s update shows the race as close as it has been since the Pennsylvania Primary. Results from the past two nights of tracking are even closer. If this tightening continues, it would suggest that the issues surrounding Reverend Jeremiah Wright are having a significant impact on support for Barack Obama. A separate survey found that 36% say a candidate’s character is more important than his specific policy positions. Most, however, are more interested in the policies.

I fucking point in a poll with a MOE of usually more than 3 points?

Boy are you grasping at straws.

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Clinton leads 48-47 with the 14% of voters who described themselves as Republicans.

Operation Chaos in action.

OPERATION CHAOS on HOLD!!!

It seems Hillary is doing well and now he wants to run against Barry-O:


Rush Calls Operation Chaos Pause
April 29, 2008

http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_042908/content/01125112.guest.html

Well, as long as we're wondering where right-wingers are leaning...

GOP Gives Clinton the Silent Treatment

"From top to bottom of GOP, working assumption seems to be that Democratic contest is over and Obama has won."

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9964.html

I'm glad the GOP's velvet-gloved treatment of Hillary is finally getting some attention.

Velvet gloves my ass! What planet have you been living on for the last 15 years??? That remark is as funny as it is stupid!

Read yesterday's fawning Bill Kristol piece in the NY Times and then you can talk about how funny and/or stupid the comment was.

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Ya, right. The POLITICO?? WHat a HACK operation that is.

AND the reason the GOP may be giving Hill the silent treatment and focussing on Anti-Obama ads is because the damaged Obama brand and his radical Rev Wright ties is going to be gold for them in close elections in the South.

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Actually, this is not true as of the time you wrote the message I'm responding to.

Rush Limbaugh put Operation Chaos back on this morning, with continued instructions to his listeners to vote for Clinton.

He did say he was considering switching the focus to Obama after the Jeremiah Wright re-surfacing, but saw the punditry react favorably to Obama's presser yesterday. So, he's continuing the operation.

I like how Thomas Friedman refers to the McCain-Clinton gas plan. Kinda says a lot about Hillary CLinton.

Oh, and he also describes it as "shameless pandering".

Clinton wants to put a profit tax on oil companies to offset the gas tax. GET IT STUPID!?! That is a tax reduction for poor average folks and a tax hike on rich corporate oil assholes. Sounds like exactly what we need. Too bad your hate has you so confused.

Here's a link in the WaPost discussing the gas tax holiday, and the solutions to fund it.

Stay class, Hillary supporters.

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/fact-checker/2008/04/a_holiday_from_gas_prices.html

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CT, Thomas Friedman is not called "BoBo" and has pies thrown at him by Liberlas for nothing.

NEWSFLASH: McCain proposes to pay for his gas tax relief out of general funds.

Hillary rightly proposes to TAX THE OIL COMPANIES to pay for relief at the gas pumps.

Obama thinks an extra $20 a week savings is not going to matter much to Americans in the long run. How out-of-touch with a minimum-wage family is that?

Let's see what a nonpartisan expert thinks of the McCain-Clinton gas tax holiday:

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/fact-checker/2008/04/a_holiday_from_gas_prices.html

Stay classy, Hillary supporters.

She won another super.

The President of the AFL-CIO.

If the Dems want to win they should encourage Obama to drop out.

w blamed them on the economy so they may want to lose because they are spineless and will have to fight back.

He picked up one this morning as well, my dear, and he's about to roll out several more today. Sorry to burst your bubble. He's picking them up at a rate of about 2:1 - at that rate she may reach 2025 by next year sometime LOL! Oh, but by then Obama will have been sworn in as our 44th President.

Sorry dear.

Obama's judgement and credibility was destroyed yesterday.

He will lose many down ticket races and the Presidency if the Dems want to lose.

The Dems may not want the majority or the Presidency.

Too many problems they know they can't solve.

There is not fight in these spineless Dems.

Obama's judgement and credibility was destroyed yesterday.
Hillary hasn't had either for a long time.
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whaaaa? you mean speeches can't fix EVERYTHING??? ;)

I'm sorry is that 'getalife'?

If not, it should be....

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Now honesty, how many times have you said something to the effect of "yesterday was the tipping point tat proved that Obama can't win." I could be mixing you up with somebody else -- but seriously -- I take it that this time Obama is not just "destroyed," but now on Double Secret Probation?

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sigh. it's those kinds of comments that will make you look all the most stupid when hillary wins. so you planning your out-of-country move when hillary wins? i know you bots are all so adamant about that...

Its all in the numbers, which she'll never be able to overcome.....


Who's looking 'stupid'?

No, but if she keeps this up and SOMEHOW gets the nomination I'm sitting home. There's no way I'm going to vote for her.

...now way I'm voting for her.

Or, to put it another way, "GOD DAMN AMERICA!!!!"

Agreed. Sen Clinton is disqualified no matter who else is running. She will not get my vote under any circumstance.

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Supreme Court, Marioth, remember who gets to pick the next Supreme Court justices HAS to be a Dem..

The Supreme Court will attend to itself. It moves in a vastly different time frame than the other two branches.

I will not trade Obliteration for a SCOTUS justice. There is no moral equivalent.

The U.S. would never recover from obliteration. It amazes me this story has not gotten more play. A sitting Senator threatens 70 million people with erasure, and we would rather rifle through church bulletins for dirt on Obama.

After obliteration lies oblivion where SCOTUS decisions will amount to doodly-squat.

No more lying obliteratti. She will never get my vote.

Pax,
M.

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Please put "obliteration" in context.

Hillary put this on the table IF Iran launches a pre-emptive nuclear strike on Israel, our friend and ally in the MIddle East.

During her interview with Keith Olbermann, she also said she was for creating a "security umbrella" for our freinds and allies in the Middle East, not just limiting these policies to Iran or Israel.

I am 100% behind her on this one: Ahmadinejad and the mullahs need to understand very clearly what the leaders of this country intend for the Middle East and our foriegn policy.

Planning, like Obama does, "summits and talks" is not going to deter rogue states from trying to find out by pushing the boundaries just what we will put up with.

This is arrogant blustering of the worst sort. You do not understand that an a

This is arrogant blustering of the worst sort. You do not understand that an immoral aggression can never be "won." It serves no vital American interest to remain in Iraq, and public sentiment backs this up. It is just as immoral to qualify obliteration as not.

You are caught in the fantasy that the U.S. has any business dictating anything to anyone. It is the same denial that leads directly to "nuke em all".

And I will not support it.

Get a grip, Marioth. You've got a bad case of kool-aid poisoning here. Obliteration? Please.

You really think putting McCain in the White House is better than Clinton? You're insane. Certifiably, demonstrably insane.

Freakin' cult. Freakin', chump-ass cult.


Your barbs aside, I will never vote for the neocon Hillary Rodham Strangelove Clinton.

When Hillary wins what? Indiana? I expect she will. Maybe even NC. But that brings her no closer to the nomination. The superdelegates are not going to overturn an elected-delegate lead. It's just not going to happen. Stealing the nomination from someone who won by PLAYING BY THE RULES is a sure disaster come November, and the superdelegates know it.

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And Hillary will still be running.

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This too will pass.

Hillary may win a few battles...but she has lost the war.

Word straight up!

That's been my philosophy for a while. My wife could tell after the PA primary that I was a bit discouraged, but I told her my mood would pass, Obama would stay on message, and that this too shall pass. "But he didn't close the deal!" she said. I replied, that the war is already over, she lost.

Incorrect. The President of the Pennsylvania AFL-CIO. Check your facts before you post them.

Hey, nice to hear from you. What've you been up to? Working? Ignoring politics? Learning the rules for seating delegates?

My bad.

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It is so easy to get ahead in the polls when nobody is attacking you. Neither Obama or the RNC are attacking Hillary. This is clearly excellent news for her.

Obama is in the mist of a tornado. Clinton, McCain, RNC, and now REv. Wright. I can't remeber the last time I seen a candidate get taken to task like this.

O it reminds me so very much of McCain and Bush, when Bush engineered that black baby smear.

Except Obama's is self inflicting.

Your avatar is gone.

Taken to task, and still standing, dignity intact.

I can see it.

Damn that edit page - over and over and over I get error messages when I try to change the gravatar.


Damn blogging software - never works right.

The question then becomes whether a tie on May 6th is enough to keep her in the race.

Nonsense. This question is absurd on its face. I still expect Obama to win both IN and NC on May 6, but I am quite certain that whether she wins one and loses the other or loses both, Clinton will still be in the race on May 7.

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Young Mr. Hillary. "More of a man than Rocky Balboa"


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rleUPHX8yfM

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Indiana trend lines -- very bad news for BO.

http://www.pollster.com/08-IN-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

See comment below. (Colorado Jones).

Those are some bad trendlines for Hillary.

Alternate Headline: Nomination Remains Out of Reach for Clinton

A new poll out today shows that Hillary Clinton falls well short of the 68% support she will need in every remaining primary state just to pull even with Barack Obama in elected delegates. In Indiana she polls at just 50%, a full 18 points short of the support she would need to blunt Obama's insurmountable lead. In North Carolina, she continues to trail Obama with no hope of catching up.

Its all in the numbers...

Barry in '08!

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Obama's come back from worse deficits.

I'm heading back to Indy this weekend to rally our peeps. Y'all keep phonebanking and donating and we will deliver for our man.

thank you thank you thank you.

In the last 2 weeks I have almost maxxed out on donations to Obama. I threw another twofiddy in last night because it was another matching donation night.

I like it when what I give gets doubled.

I can't travel out of state to campaign, so I so appreciate those of you who are doing that.

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Two questions might be relevant

1) What is the movement in this poll, if any?

2) What is the polling outfit's history of accuracy?

Obama has already proven his resilience over and over again.

Secondly, if it's a choice between a known liar -- Clinton and a well meaning, trustworthy person who occasionally blunders, but who has been correct on the major policy issues of today -- Obama, well that choice is really simple.

Obama 08

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As many people here have pointed out and is worth repeating, these polls are only a way for media to keep the horserace story alive.

Until Hillary gets 70 percent to Obama's 30, they are irrelevant!

jeeeez. There are a good amount of polls that suggest Indiana is closer and some that suggest Obama is ahead.

This thing about posting any poll that has the most shocking numbers is weak.

Obama is a liar. Obama KNEW his Pastor words from the pulit were racist and anti-American BEFORE he announced for POTUS. Fresh evidence of honest Barry-O:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I0n16tLzsAI&eurl=http://redstate.com/

More BS from Mr. Softee Head. Lay off the Metamucil.

On the other hand, we now have proof that the Hillster is a switch. Watch as she gets boned by Patti Solis wearing a strap-on...http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yu_moia-oVI

Oh NO.... He said his pastor was his friend?!?!?


He's done.. this is his (at least 20th) Macaca moment!

We got him now!

Mercy....

its getting quite comical all the poop slinging without much affect in the polling....

After people see Obama's press conference from yesterday I have no doubt the numbers will start swinging back Barrys way again. Just in time for the weekend and next tues.

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There is more doo-doo on Obama's shoes.
Clinton will win both states on May 6th.

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It's over--for HRC. Barack MUST run as if it's not over at all and fight for every delegate, every state that he can get. But it's over for HRC. The superdelegate news today, Obama's repudiation of Wright yesterday--it's over. The narrative is changing again, despite the media pile-on and the two-front HRC/McCain attack. She may well win Indiana, but it's over.

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For anyone who thinks (or posts) this is over, just look at the political betting on Intrade (RCP also has these numbers under Dem Pres poll numbers). These had Obama at around 88% a few days ago and now he's at around 75%, with Clinton around 23-25%. This is where people actually put their money up, not just hype up their candidate on the blogs (talk is cheap, no offense to Obama).

Two observations
1. If you believe BO is a cert, you can make around a 30-33% return on your money in a few weeks (lay out 75, gain 25). Not bad in these days of 2% p.a. interest rates.

2. Clinton's chance is now better than Obama's was a couple of days before the Iowa caucus (according to Intrade). I didn't hear anyone calling for him to drop out so as not to damage the party's chances.

And I think this continual chant of "it's over" just lessens the chance of the party coming together if BO is the nominee. By all means support your candidate but stop trying to win by default. Although thankfully it doesn't look like Hillary is going to be intimidated into dropping out.

Being down 75-25 isn't exactly good news for the candidate who was supposed to have this wrapped up in Feb.

Well it's been obvious for some time that Camp Clinton is not so good with the math....

No more obliteratti.

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it shocks me to know end how, rather than actually show you can win the nomination outright by winning votes, the obama supporters here seem oddly bent on denying or dismissing democracy and voting and voter sentiment, and seem more intent on rationalizing arguments that try to justify ending the contest early and discounting the votes of the 9 remaining states + the votes of citizens of florida and michigan.

your guy is a hoopster, right? supposed to be well-skilled in "competition" and "playing a full 40 minutes" and "playing through the whistle." i know he was at unc the other day doing his "every man tour", and i realize unc is the birthplace of the dean smith "4 corners offense" (an oxymoron if ever there was one since there's nothing remotely aggressive or offense-oriented about the stall tactic that is the 4 corners "o"), but not a compelling win to win a nomination/"party mandate", and certainly not a strategy that has any chance of success in the general.

works for me and my candidate, though. while obama sits back believing he's got this "wrapped up" and can "coast to the nomination", my gal is going to just keep winning states and winning votes and making her case to the people the party and the super ds.

we'll see where things end up.

i'm optimistic.

No one is discounting the voters in the final nine states.

There just aren't enough of them to make a difference.

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Once again, Obama will fall short of the 2025 he needs. That's the "math".

Maybe, but he'll still be closer than Hillary.

Maybe, but he'll still be closer than Hillary.

There's an old saying: Close only counts in horse shoes and hand grenades.

Close doesn't mean squat if The Dear Leader loses NC, because the Supers will see what the grown-ups have known for some time: He's an empty suit with one stale, worn-out, plagiarized speech. (Not to mention questionable taste in friends and advisors.)

W is "all hat, no cattle". The Dear Leader is "all wind, no bag". The grown-ups already know that. It's taking the short bus crowd a bit longer to catch on.

The math is that Obama needs only 292 of the remaining 699 delegates to reach 2024.

Hillary needs 427. Not gonna happen.

Bizaare that you think he is sitting around waiting to be coronated....Has he not been campaigning every frigging day from the one end of IN and NC to another?

You can spin it all you want, but she is still losing this thing. Let the remaining states vote, seat the delegates from FL and MI, and you will still be losing. Your spin is showing when you try and get the "votes" counted from those states, your girl agreed to the rules just like everyone else.

Why do you think Superdels have been moving to Obama over the past few weeks, depsite the Wright flare-up? Cuz they know what you can't seem to figure out, it's over.

I love Claire McCaskill and when she says there are "dozens" of supers waiting to endorse Obama, I believe her.

I sense a level of denial among Clinton supporters who believe one can simply convince a super del to go against the will of their voters. You really do not understand what you are asking, and how desperate it sounds. You are asking them to risk their careers, and it's rediculous thinking, epecially if you are interested in expanding the dem majority in Congress.

Because the Clinton brand, even today, is no longer selling. "Change you can Xerox?" Who still xeroxes I'd like to know? Change you can mimeograph?

I want to write the ballad "How the Inter-Webs Done In Bubbuh".

Let all the votes be counted. We shall have our nominee soon enough. No more obliteratti.

Pax,
M.

it shocks me to know end how, rather than actually show you can win the nomination outright by winning votes, the clinton supporters here seem oddly bent on denying or dismissing democracy and voting and voter sentiment, and seem more intent on rationalizing arguments that try to claim that because the leading candidate has not won every single state, then we should nominate the candidate that cannot win a majority of states or a majority of democratic voters...

PPP also had Obama by 3 in PA 2 days before the election, so taks this for what it is worth.